Some showers in SoCal; dry once again by midweek

That pesky cut-off low has produced a variety of weather across Central California over the past few days. A southerly band of subtropical moisture set up along the coast of Santa  Barbara and Ventura as well as Monterey Counties, bringing periods of locally heavy rainfall, esp. to south-facing mountain peaks. Rainfall totals of up to 3.5 inches were recorded in the usually wet locations, but the vast majority of locations received much less than that, and nearly 80% of recording stations received nothing at all. A three day storm total in San Rafael summed to a measly 0.17 in.–hardly enough to even make a dent in the dry spell. So…although some mountain peaks in CentCal recovered their monthly totals to 75% of normal, all other places are in the same very dry situation that they have been for the entire winter. Even those stations that did record significant rainfall over the past few days are still hovering near 30-40% of normal for the season. And the bad news? Once this low moves out of here, no more rain is on the horizon. Some locally heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms could be drawn up into the San Diego area tonight, but for the most part a drying trend will ensue. The 16 day GFS keeps all of CA almost entirely dry through the period, with little hope for a breakthrough of the subtropcial jet stream in the next 1-2 weeks. The Omega-Rex Block currently in place will transition back over to a plain old (and entirely dry) Rex Block by later this week. If CA really is dry for the next two weeks, water problems will become a major topic of discussion. This most recent system brought up to 10 inches of snow to the far southern Sierra, but snowpack water equivalent is still well below average for this time of year. Stay tuned…