Just a very quick update this evening. The models have suddenly begun to indicate a major monsoonal surge into CA this weekend, especially in SoCal. Very high PW values are progged to overspread all of Southern California and even creep as far north as the Sacramento Valley and Bay Area by Saturday. All areas south of Los Angeles have a significant chance of seeing thunderstorm activity and very humid weather for several days beginning on Friday and lasting at least into the middle of next week. From the Los Angeles area northward to the Central Coast (including the southern San Joaquin Valley), there will also be a significant chance of convective activity beginning on Friday, but it may not be quite as widespread as in far SoCal, where scattered to numerous showers and storms are likely. This activity will not be confined to mountain areas, though it will certainly be enhanced by elevated terrain. Further north, in the Bay Area and Sacramento Valley, convective probabilities are less certain. There will definitely be a real chance of some activity in both of these locations at least on Saturday and Sunday, but it will certainly not be as widespread as it will be in SoCal. There will be some risk of dry lightning this weekend on the northern fringe of the activity, as well. Stay tuned…this could pan out to be the most interesting weather of the summer so far (save for the NorCal thunderstorm outbreak in early June).
