Extraordinary winter warmth and dryness to persist as West Coast ridge dominates

Filed in Uncategorized by on February 1, 2018 5,156 Comments

Summer in January; Sierra Nevada snowpack nears record low

Well below average precipitation has been widespread so far this winter across most of the American West. (WRCC).

Remarkably warm conditions have persisted for most of the winter thus far across the entire American West, except for the far Northern Rockies. (WRCC)

Despite the calendar, it sure hasn’t felt much like the middle of winter across California in recent days. While well above average temperatures and below average precipitation have been widespread throughout the state, recent warmth and dryness have been especially concentrated across Southern California. Immediately following the warmest autumn (and before that, warmest summer) on record, a legitimate mid-winter heatwave baked the southern third of the state this week, setting numerous high temperature records. In fact, anomalous offshore flow brought daytime temperatures near 90 degrees and overnight lows above 70 degrees near the Pacific coastline–temperatures that would be well above average in these areas in June, let alone January.

While temperatures in SoCal have now moderated somewhat, they’re still quite mild for this time of year (running a “cool” 10-15+ degrees above average).

Snowpack is at or near record low levels across much of the American Southwest this February.

Additionally, this highly anomalous warmth has now spread northward across the rest of the state–bringing spring-like temperatures to the Sierra Nevada and inducing unusual mid-winter snowmelt. The statewide snowpack has already been tracking near record-low levels for most of the winter (partly due to modestly below average precipitation but mostly due to far above average temperatures), but the ongoing warm and dry spell will likely melt what little snow currently exists below about 8000 feet in elevation. The lack of snow in California so far this winter is actually part of a much broader “snow drought” that currently extends across most of the mountainous interior of the American West, from the Cascades in Oregon to the Front Range of the Rockies in Colorado. Much as in the Sierra Nevada, these largely snow-less conditions are the product of both below average precipitation and above average temperatures across a wide swath of the Southwest so far this season.

 

“Severe drought” has returned to parts of Southern California

Today’s update of the U.S. Drought Monitor suggests that “severe drought” conditions have returned to parts of Southern California–most notably, Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties, where huge tracts of land have recently been burned by the nearly 300,000 acre Thomas Fire (in December) and/or the localized but devastating debris flows and flash floods (in early January). That might not come as a surprise to local residents–many of whom will point out that California’s multi-year, statewide 2012-2016 drought never really ended locally (where Lake Casitas, the only source of water for several communities, is running at about 35% of capacity). While the Northern California reservoirs are generally in much better shape due to carry-over from last year’s deluge (and California’s big cities, which are all tied into the state water system, are therefore unlikely to experience water restrictions this year), California’s wildlands and ecosystems will most likely experience more immediate adverse impacts from yet another warm, dry winter. The recent drought was a major factor in the bark beetle-linked mortality of well over 100 million Sierra Nevada trees in recent years. Despite last year’s wet and cooler reprieve, these drought and beetle-stressed forests have yet to recover from the intense multi-year drought that preceded it–so there is serious concern that forest mortality could accelerate once again during the upcoming dry season.

Los Angeles has experienced only a single day of precipitation greater than 0.33 inches in nearly 365 days. (NOAA)

Just how dry has it been in Southern California? As a current resident of Los Angeles, I found the following statistic especially striking: if the city reaches February 19th, 2018 without a significant rain event (as currently appears plausible), there will have been only a single day with more than a third (0.33) of an inch of precipitation in the preceding 365 days–a full calendar year.

 

A big West Coast ridge has returned…and it looks pretty resilient

GEFS and ECMWF ensembles both strongly suggest persistent ridge will keep West Coast dry for 2+ weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

At risk of sounding like a broken record: a strong, persistent, broad, and anomalous ridge of atmospheric high pressure has yet again set up along the West Coast. All indications are that it will probably stick around for the foreseeable future (certainly for the next 10 days, and plausibly for the next 2-3 weeks). This may sound a bit odd to those accustomed to the typical weather prediction mantra that anything out beyond about 7-10 days is essentially unpredictable. But recent evidence suggests that under certain circumstances, large-scale atmospheric predictability can be much higher over longer periods. The present instance of prolonged, stable ridging near the West Coast appears to be one of these situations, given the remarkable multi-model ensemble agreement that the large-scale flow pattern is unlikely to change much through at least mid-February (and perhaps even longer than that).

One atmospheric dynamics-related reason for this high confidence: the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) yesterday reached its highest amplitude in recorded history, and appears to be be “stuck” in a phase that favors strong West Coast ridging and warm/dry California conditions. MJO-California weather linkages are a complicated topic that’s a bit beyond the scope of this brief blog post, but there are some good resources out there on the web for those who are interested in learning more.

The infamous precipitation “donut hole” over California will most likely persist for the foreseeable future. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This doesn’t mean that it will be completely dry across the entire state, but it does suggest a very high probability of far above average temperatures and well below average precipitation during what is typically the wettest part of the year in many parts of California. This appears to be an unfortunate case where the seasonal forecast models–which predicted a warm and drier than average winter in California, especially across the south–did a pretty good job. As many folks have pointed out, California’s seasonal precipitation is often dictated by the occurrence of just a handful of strong storms each year–so it’s still possible that a robust storm sequence in late February (or another “Miracle March“) could bring a remarkable turnaround in short order. But while that possibility remains on the table, the odds are long.

 

Some brighter news: a Weather West milestone!

Recently, the Weather West blog hit a bit of a milestone: 10 million visitors since 2006! Even more impressive, I think, are the 250,000 (and mostly on-topic!) comments that have accumulated (occasionally over 5,000 per blog post!). That’s a real testament to the engaged community that has flourished here over the years. I want to sincerely thank everyone who has helped make this site what it is today!

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  • Thunderstorm

    Visible satellite looks empty to the north. Really feels like 1976. Little bit of cloud cover with a cold front and a lot of wind from the NW. Expecting more of the same into late spring. Drought Lord rules. Time to water the landscape already.

    • Pfirman

      Agree with the 76 analog. I remember clouds rolling in up in Chico that looked dark and stormy and then zippo. Over and over.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    I have had a few sprinkles here in Orange tonight. Hopefully that it is a good sign for more in the way of showers tomorrow.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Some good flurries crossing I-80 right now…

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Chain requirements up and even a closure at Emigrant Gap, winter returned even if it was just a bit of snow.

      • janky

        I got a tweet that 80 was closed for a bit. Spinouts on 1″ of pow pow.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Who’s up for some model riding? I know CHeden is after he alluded yesterday to what the GFS LR is now advertising — a solution such as this morning’s 06Z could make February’s totals not so bad after all.

    • AlTahoe

      Hopefully the models don’t start back pedaling like they have all season. As of right the long range is looking fantastic on all of the models.

      • weathergeek100

        That’s good news for a change. Did you get some snow overnight? That system had signs of over performing.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Even better!

    • CHeden

      Actually I’m not so much model riding, rather following my “instincts” when the high will retrograde further NW. That the GFS seems to be finally trending towards a similar idea that the other models have been showing (HP eventually pulling back into the north/cent. Pacific) is just another drop in the coffee cup of optimism.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Literally feel like we’ve been chasing this pattern all season where we’d finally see the ridge’s retrogression west put us in a favorable positions for a cyclonic trough to drop in east of the ridge, with continuance of lows riding over the ridge to help give a potentially deepening boost to the trough once in place, furthermore adding active weather… What I love most about all this is there hasn’t been any destructive subtropical forcing to ruin this potential northern energy we’re beginning to experience… Truly a rarity if there is a storm cycle in our favor and it has more northerly dominated component than a southerly one. We still need moisture for these storms, but I’ll gladly not have an AR mixing everyone’s emotions. Knock on wood.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          What is the destructive subtropical forcing you are referring to here? Is that the Hadley Cell (subtropical ridge) pushing everything northward?

          If we get a storm cycle out of the north, that should bring more lower elevation snow events to the Sierra and help build the snowpack to some extent and give the ski industry a much-needed boost!

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Sorry wasn’t too clear with that, but I’m referring to the subtropical jet in which it would bring a warm sector to the region generally for areas south of 40N causing for higher elevation snow and also the “feast & famine” scenarios we’ve seen so many times in recent winters. This upcoming storm cycle looks like it may not have that problem, but I am seeing that change with a possibility of the subtropical jet making a big comeback across the southwest due to a PVS that forms over CA associated with our cut-off low currently pushing SW into the state… If the subtropical jet does awaken, we will need to discuss more about the implication and even the possibility it causes beneficial moisture to be entrained into the storm cycle. A lot of outcomes could be on the table ahead with this feature.

  • Shane Ritter

    1/2″ of snow in North Reno..Roads are a mess this morning.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    350 AM PST Mon Feb 12 2018

    The upper level ridge will be displaced as an upper level trough
    drops down from the Pacific NW Sunday into early next week.
    However, forecast models are beginning to show better agreement
    compared to previous forecast runs. This system could bring snow
    and rain to the mountains with snow levels as low as 1500 feet.

  • DrySprings6250

    It is turning white outside – it is turning white outside!

  • Taz & Storm Master

    what ever happens next week you can be sure that we can say good by too the 70s for right now has we could see a major pattern change from 70s too low snow levels

    time will tell so for now keep a eye on the models

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Jump on those models and RIDE !!!

  • AlTahoe

    It felt like I was standing inside an eyewall on this morning’s dog walk. There was a lake enhanced convective band that started at Mt Tallac and wrapped all the way around to incline. Of course there was blue sky directly above my head. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4779c8e3647895b8d6790693a4fa693a63d07c39aa26ae82e4df09249bcb4562.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a719b11c860aca10a849ecfdd236e1d6e457f6ed2a445dd394f0c1f308fb3919.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2481dac4a9922a0dfa78eaa9ba16a28c679b61953142f823712d71dc1a68deea.jpg

    • AlTahoe

      Looks like the band just moved over me as it is snowing pretty hard right now. Should be a fun commute

      • Cap’n

        Trace here, maybe 300-400 flakes fell after bed. It is flurrying now again. The score is: Pretty Snow Map Projections posted on the comment section 0, Reality 14. It is looking a little more promising down the line though.

        • matthew

          I am going to be generous and give us 1/8th inch here in the shire. #NotShutOutInFebruary

        • Maps didn’t ever show more than several inches and even then that was atop Tallac/Sierra-At-Tahoe. Cross check it with the icon yesterday, it got Al’s eyewall lakesnow down.

          • Cap’n

            Several tenths of an inch for sure.

        • inclinejj

          You might have to throw a couple Shaun White bobbleheads in the fire to break the dry streak!!

        • AlTahoe

          There was a pocket of 6-10″ snow by Chimney beach that was only a couple of miles long. That area got clobbered

    • weathergeek100

      Wow it actually snowed up there!!!

    • Pfirman

      Composition, especially the first photo, is excellent. Snow, any snow, is fine too.

    • Cap’n

      Jesus Al you feeding that dog cheese burgers?

  • Tom & Koyano Gray

    Rain from the south east this morning. Relatively rare event, but tell ya what, you see rain from the southeast to southwest around here – close the windows.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    We had a little frost this morning

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Cold this morning, low 40s to high 30s

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      definitely a drop from last week, I was on my way to work this morning it was 40 last week it as pushing 60.

  • Atmospheric_River

    @disqus_BSoQQ08R9b:disqus Euro still likes the idea of sea level snow, a light dusting over perhaps most of South Bay!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6d5441e91ee0f5a84bbcca41b6edae06e5b3a1a766701ec10da99150bc4eefe8.png

  • DrySprings6250

    Snowing pretty good! Nice! 32F…No accumulation really so no running down the street in pre-exclamation…

    It’s actually more like miniature grauple / white ice pellets and some flakes floating about… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6690565bf84c21a35c7191acc92f81ff07078fad0c85e359f827b2b64298920.jpg

    • BigBearHiking

      just a dusting up here so far

    • Cap’n

      Put on the long johns and take a neighborhood jog with a mega phone, that should do the trick, or get you a ride in the back of a patrol car?

    • weathergeek100

      Man even if it isn’t raining on the coast at least the jeffrey pines in the mountains are getting some much needed precip. Maybe we can delay their death by a few months or so. Ugh.

      • DrySprings6250

        Seriously man….what’s sad is how hydrophobic the ground is despite 8” of rain in mid january and some snow…kick the dirt or pine needles and it’s bone dry 1/2” below the surface…

  • Charlie B

    Solid 1” of snow in South Reno. Still snowing lightly.

    • AlTahoe

      There was a trace to about 1″ on my drive from South Lake to Incline with one oddity. Right around Chimney beach was a pocket of 6-10″ of new snow that was only about 2 miles long. Must have been an intense snow band in that area.

      • Model was right and then some! Mesoscale was depicting some bandy goodness, RGEM and ICON are the new champions today. GFS was useless this time.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I do not think we will see a drop of rain with this current event for my area.

    • Robin White

      I counted nine in Pacific Grove. And here’s something new: the ants have started marching in, not to find food, but to find water.

      • Thunderstorm

        These are the type of observations that are very telling of what to expect in the future. Back in 1976 I opened the water meter box and saw that ants were getting water from the sweat of the pipe and probably taking the H20 back to the nest.

    • weathergeek100

      You’re probably right.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I had a few sprinkles here in Orange last night but nothing today so far.

  • weathergeek100

    I have no idea how SoCal can get any precip at all from this so called ‘low’. There’s nothing more than a few showers on the mountain slopes and nothing out to sea. Runningsprings6250 will do ok but for the rest of you, ehhhh yeah I wouldn’t count on anything.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I am not quite sure, either. The satellite picture doesn’t look very impressive and I really don’t see any circulation lurking off the coast right now. It would have to come from a strong onshore flow I suppose.

  • AlTahoe

    The 12z GFS runs seems to have initialized all wonky as the progression makes 0 sense in the long range. I bet this afternoons run gets it act back to together. Let the model riding/hand wringing begin!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      To make model riding more fun I am imagining Jonny Moseley giving the commentary on it. The “Dinner Roll” in the Pacific is something to see…

      • Yolo Hoe

        Am loving those commercials showing Rainbow Bridge + vintage Squaw

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      The latest few runs are similar to what we saw back in December with the lows riding over the ridge and then moving back westward over water. It really never seemed to work out in December. The lows would end up east over land and moisture starved. The latest runs seems to rely on the high retrograding west in the pacific and at the same time an area of HP in the east forcing the low to backtrack. It isn’t the pattern I like but at least it will guarantee us cool temps.

  • Cap’n

    Alright Crash, we’ve been here before. Just heard from a client that there was 4” in Page Meadows this morning above TC. Combo that with what Al saw on east shore, and I think I owe you a…

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=c3sOuEv0E2I

    • janky

      Squaw is reporting 4″ up top. Hmm.

    • Lol, yeah if anything this makes me happy because it verifies ICON for one thing, I like that model, and also it shows that the future really isn’t written – this stuff didn’t come out of nowhere but it wasn’t exactly progged a week out, at the start of February there was so much donut what just fell didn’t look possible, well here we are – if this was just a weak foray with ridging expected to rebuild I wouldn’t care but some pieces missing from our puzzle box are starting to finally come into view…

      • Yolo Hoe

        Exactly — and furthermore, the rumors of the death of The Storm King have, in my humble opinion, been greatly exaggerated

    • Admode (Susanville)

      It seemed like there was 1 narrow band of heavy snow last night. Between hallelujah junction and Doyle there was heavy Sierra cement falling. Between Roseville and susanville that was it, besides some grauple.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Next time on model riders.

    Will the GFS cold solution hold on or evaporate like it did in December? Will So Cal continue the dream of getting no rain. in February. Tune in tomorrow for the exciting conclusion.

    • matthew

      Cold and wet/snow : Great!
      Warm and dry : Not great, but I will take it.
      Cold and dry : No thanks.

    • AlTahoe

      The block isn’t going anywhere on all of the models. It is just a matter of if we are going to see any moisture or not. The cold appears to be a lock.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      In a world without rain, two determined models battle it out for the driest senario. Which ridge will win? Stay tuned to Model Riders!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      “the dream of getting no rain” a nightmare!

  • NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) is forecast to tank. Has been positive since early December sans a few zits. The effects of NAO is more strongly felt in Eastern US and Northern Europe however height patterns can be different in the Pacific. Generally a +NAO has a ridge pattern over the west coast, yet this year the ridge pattern has been vertical than zonal.

    PNA (Pacific /North America Pattern) has been + and – this winter but ridging has been kinda in the middle of what a classic -PNA looks like. It’s been negative since mid January with ups and downs in December. Vertical ridge patterns are rarely if ever good for West Coast. LOL don’t we know it!

    AO (Arctic Oscillation) has is and has been and (IMO) will be tanked through March.

    Only change in these three major winter atmospheric patterns is the NAO.

    • honzik

      All this talk about the NAO, ENSO, MJO, is just a smokescreen to hide the fact that Pecos Bill stole the rain from Californy. It’s a conspiracy man!

      http://www.cornel1801.com/disney/Melody-Time-1948/Pecos-Bill/6.jpg

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      LOL, you forgot to provide a conclusion based on all the model forecasting

      • Well, since NAO he said has been + since the start of our misery, my conclusion is, different setup incoming. I’m going to chip in my 2c and suggest that the vertical instead of zonal ridge pattern is due to sea ice changes. But I’m just pulling that out of my arse if we be completely frank, new regime new expectations needed ;/

        • I do think the fact that the warmest SSW temps are occurring near/over open water this time (probably first time since SSW events have been observed?) is now driving the snow weenies south of New England insane. LOL

          We really won’t know if this is the beginning of a regime shift for a few years.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Wisely stated.

          • Well that sucks.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      What do you mean by vertical ridge patterns vs. zonal ridge patterns? I haven’t heard this description for ridging before.

      • Meridional

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Thanks! I was thinking that vertical may mean meridional.

          That +NAO graphic that you posted looks a lot like the current pattern with ridging too close to the west coast to allow storms into the area.

          • -NAO can be further defined east and west. The one coming up looks east based which might really suck, yet it’s a change from the +NAO. I say this because an east based -NAO has a ridge pattern that looks similar to what we’ve had this winter even though the NAO has been positive. I can’t answer why. I’m looking only at a change vs more of the same

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Based on what you said, I am assuming a west based -NAO would be better for us. Is that right?

          • Among other things, yes. I like to look upstream (west) more than downstream. Stick a big juicy Grand Big Mac out in the GOA and add a Pina Colada fetch from Hawaii and a happy food coma is on it’s way. LOL

  • inclinejj
    • Bob G (Gustine)

      The bullet train will be added as a water project

      • It will be redesigned to transport water from NorCal to SoCal, and then never work in it’s intended purpose, collect dust and end up being just a high speed baby diapers+sawdust+crushed cans skip.

        Let’s re-calibrate this for better wallet-draining aspirations:
        High speed desalinization rail with hyperloops and reusable water rockets? ELEVENTY JILLION IN EARMARKS NOW!

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Lol. The train will move water faster then canals

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Hard to stop housing developments in California. At least LA is building up instead of out; putting in more light rail

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          The state mandates that every county in the state has to build a certain number of houses each year based on population estimates and local governments have to prove they are meeting this demand or the state can yank certain state funding from them. We have been bringing in something like 100K foreign tech workers into the US each year and I believe most come to live in CA. While CA can’t stop that, they seem to encourage it. All these people coming to CA have to live somewhere.

    • molbiol

      This is California; therefore mind-boggling stupidity is nothing out of the ordinary. As Bob G alluded to: Sprawl is out of control. This latest economic boom means a whole bunch more houses are about to be built here in Lancaster where overcrowding and over-stressed infrastructure is already stressing EVERYTHING (schools, overcrowded hospitals, roads, crime etc.). Worse, many of these desert communities are now increasingly becoming low-income minority majority as cost of living in urban areas sky-rocket. I don’t see how ANY of this can be sustainable. I do agree with the overall consensus that building more dams is not the answer and that more modern and efficient technologies need to implemented.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Since the infrastructure is already stressed, we certainly don’t need more population growth in these areas, especially if we face a water shortage in the future. With our limited resources, we simply cannot accommodate everybody that wants to come here.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Perhaps lawmakers were lulled into thinking that last year’s rain season fixed all the problems. Underground storage in Chino & Fresno sounds relatively inexpensive.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Anybody else watching the cloud formations and flow patterns within the core of the low as it slowly moves over the Sierra’s and the Central Valley? I recommend checking it out. Interestingly you can see the moisture over the Great Basin is now trying pretty hard to get west of the Sierra’s. This is still a feature we’re all watching move SSW and can be identified on infrared within these two frames that are two hours apart, second frame is the most recent… http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=subregional-Sierra-15-24-0-100 http://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/259a135dbc498c6c160488714ce45607396aec7a91b174ef7a0e8aeccc1b35d8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4d67facb888968608ac39d54c4321856f71e6d6ba9f20ee0a044363db6afd724.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5dd5c3a10380836115e20c53b1ce8b9031251a6b0442ac2d8728d3e0736e44b5.png

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Watching this from the surface is pretty sweet currently. Love our local topography for making a display on the atmosphere like this… https://twitter.com/805weather/status/963124022874550272

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Not many reports of rain even though radar looks good

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m not expecting much of anything until later today and this evening.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          NWS says that the best chance of rain is sometime this evening or tonight.

        • Sokafriend

          I still lean towards greatest possibility for Wednesday/Thursday near the border.
          Brown Field registered .01 inch yesterday. It still appears that central Baja will get highest coastal region, interior vallleys- measurable totals projected at .50-.75 inches through Wednesday afternoon. That’s a major exporting agricultural area- berries, baby veggies- organic produce, flowers- so it’s good news for growers and consumers.

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        I counted a good 10 drops here

  • Bartshe
    • Yolo Hoe

      Beautiful and very much hope inducing — thanks for that!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Sight for sore eyes

  • alanstorm

    True story:
    I had a dream last night that Daniel had a store selling old 15 minute scale Topo maps showing where the old towns were on the Eel before they got wiped out by the 64 flood.
    Trying to impress him with smalltalk, I asked what the GFS models looked like for the rest of February.
    He said “ask the duck”.
    A white duck walked out the door & I followed.
    It stopped, looked up at me sideways & I felt as if it was looking into my soul.
    Just as I thought I would learn the secrets of our screwed up weather pattern, it crapped on my foot.

    End of dream

    • thebigweasel

      As a matter aflack, it’s going to rain.
      Well, what ELSE is a duck gonna tell you?

    • He said WTF? Not “ask the duck.”

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Have you seen a lot of ducks lately? If so, that may be one of the reasons the duck was in your dream.

      • alanstorm

        No ducks. Just vultures & ravens

    • Ducks literally are rapists according to science, maybe it’s a good thing the dream ended there.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/423c83762ddb11d52d86a302af8188b1090253024a894a51bafaafb62698774e.jpg

      • David Mata

        Aflac and other insurance companies are rapists.

        • Well, yeah. Whether you’re a victim or the insured, still going to suck the wallet dry. My car insurance payment is today…they can go AFluck themselves.

    • honzik

      Was Daniel ducking his responsibilities?

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    Quick question: why do all of the storms reaching the Southern half of California (except one) keep dissipating? I call this the “winter of disappointment.”

  • Hardcort

    A few days ago someone mentioned an El Niño possibly forming for 18/19. I believe that the 1983 El Niño began forming in spring 1982. A 10 day winter storm hit the Sierra in March/April 1982 leaving 185 inches on Donner Summit. Just saying

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Cool
      Next week could be wetter than this week if LP reforms

    • If the ridge moves way out west, yup.

    • Charlie B

      It also left numerous dead at Alpine Meadows.

    • jstrahl

      1981-82 was WET, in fact it was wetter in Berkeley during that water year than in ’82-3.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Fingers crossed the next two weeks hold a change in this topic… https://twitter.com/robelvington/status/963137663363526656

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I just think at some point that we will see a change to a wetter pattern before this season ends, unless our weather patterns are so screwed up that something resembling the past isn’t possible anymore. I would like to think that at least some patterns resembling the past are still possible in this day and age.

      • jstrahl

        I think our weather patterns are so screwed up that something resembling the past, while not impossible, is unlikely, perhaps highly unlikely.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      That chart looks like an EKG plot of California’s Winter. Better stick it with the epinephrine pen and charge up the defibrillator.

    • Cap’n

      High of 28F today so far, I think that’s as high as it’s going. I like it, but not used to it. Mittens and multiple layers.

      • AlTahoe

        Here in Incline the sun has been out all day but huge snowflakes have been falling the entire time.. No accumulation but really nice to look at.

        • Chris

          Pictures!!!????
          Please ?

    • matthew

      I had 33F on my car thermo today. 36F at Home Depot in Reno. Still have not hit subzero temps this year. I am thinking that the next couple weeks will be our last chance.

  • Thunderstorm

    Lots of showers moving east from the Sierras. Maybe they can make it across the SJ valley towards Monterey by late afternoon. Probably into Sacramento also.

  • jstrahl

    Got delayed checking things out today, had to do a blood test, with fasting, waited forever, then of course had to do breakfast, etc. So, i’m getting to see everything since this morning, the changes in mood. Seemed to start with hope, and now it’s back to the same it’s been for weeks, the funk. Strange to see the fluctuations.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • AlTahoe

      Hmm could be a good tornado chasing setup along that boundary.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Not really

    • nunbub

      Those midwest/east coast cold fronts (and warm fronts) always amazed me. Just to see the sometimes enormous temperature swings in just a few hours or minutes. Referring to the above screenshot – what a wild ride in Chicago! Looks like they were in the 50s/60s and now in the the 30s. Sheesh!

  • WXPhotographer

    For the record, I’ve been a “climate denier” over the past decade (the worst kind of person imaginable :-). No doubt we are in a warming cycle, the current dry spell is no surprise to me. I’ve kept records (central CA) since 1981, studied climatology in collage (emphasis on micro-climates), and have been storm chasing since 1994.
    I’ve never seen anything like the pattern over the past decade for CA. The frequency, persistence and amplitude of the Pacific ridges is stunning. Simply looking at past trends, the next two winters should be very wet. If not, we’re in serious trouble. I appreciate the work that scientist’s like Daniel do.
    I may have to reconsider my position on significant man-made impacts on climate.

    • Since I am an ardent believer in the man-can-and-has-effed-up-the-planet-and-will-continue-to-do-so-wantonly train of thought, has the complete and total absence of Chukchi Sea ice been alarming to you? And the warming Arctic?

      • matthew

        Our existential threats are not only from CO2 pollution and warming. The thought that the amount of plastic garbage in our oceans will outweigh the sea life by 2050 should scare the crap out of anyone with an IQ above room temperature.

    • Chris

      I think if you read research from scientific sources ONLY you would get more clarity on your position.
      I appreciate your honesty and I hope NO ONE on this blog is disrespectful towards you.

      • WXPhotographer

        I feel the users on this group are fair and open-minded, in search of provable scientific causes through data. I like logic over emotion, this is a good place for that.

        • Chris

          I live by the exact same mindset!
          “Logic over emotion”.
          Call me Mr Spock all you want but when it comes to science, this is the way to go!

    • nunbub

      I would like to submit this graphic for your info-tainment
      https://twitter.com/PeterGleick/status/963153385686843392

      • nunbub

        My commentary: I used to be a firm disbeliever myself. But then I started looking at the data…oh boy did I learn some things. This chart (see link) is a great way to visualize just the amazing rate at which humans have poured CO2 and other gases into the atmosphere. There is no other explanation for how quickly CO2 concentrations have risen in the last ~150 years.

        • It’s like we’re all constantly burning dead dinosaurs all day…oh wait…

  • DrySprings6250

    It feels as if the moist flow isn’t moist enough to sustain constant precip here in the mountains but is sufficient enough to keep reforming shortly after dying down. It’s been a day of constant 5 minute snow or hail or grauple showers followed by 5 minutes of none..

    High of 33 today a welcome change no doubt about it…

  • JMS (NE Fresno)

    Just a quick report of very light sprinkles in east central Fresno about 20 minutes ago when I went to pick up lunch. Not enough to even make a mess of my car….

  • Rusty Rails
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Santa Cruz?

      • I’m going to SWAG Capitola.

      • Rusty Rails

        Capitola while out and about this afternoon. Breaking the recent offshore warmth is nice.

  • celo

    Not that CO2 emissions are under control, but the Mauna Loa CO2 year over year reading for January, had the lowest increase in 10 years. At some time, the flattening CO2 global emission rate has to show up. Maybe not in a decreasing CO2 level, but at least the global levels will not be accelerating.

    The decrease quite possibly is due to switching from an El Nino to a La Nina. I believe I have read that has some affect.

    • The global SSTA has dropped some, too.

    • Chris

      I think Daniel fwd a tweet that the RATE of CO2 is still rising!

      • jstrahl

        Yep. See right above your comment.

    • jstrahl
    • PRCounty (Santa Lucia’s)

      The flattening does not have to show up… if any of a number of feedback loops kick in, raising it further and faster.

    • celo

      You guys are right for the last 10 years the increase is accelerating. I was only talking about January 2017 to 2018.

  • janky

    Rob Mayeda chimes in on Euro model for Sierra snow next week:

    https://twitter.com/robmayeda/status/963161797812342784

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    3 runs in a row of sea level snow on the Euro for the Penninsula, that timeframe for that is only getting closer

  • matthew

    Sea level rise is happening now, and the rate at which it is rising is increasing every year, according to a study released Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

    Researchers, led by University of Colorado-Boulder professor of aerospace engineering sciences Steve Nerem, used satellite data dating to 1993 to observe the levels of the world’s oceans.

    The team observed a total rise in the ocean of 7 centimeters (2.8 inches) in 25 years of data, which aligns with the generally accepted current rate of sea level rise of about 3 millimeters (0.1 inches) per year.

    That projection agrees perfectly with climate models used in the latest International Panel on Climate Change report, which show sea level rise to be between 52 and 98 centimeters by 2100 for a “business as usual” scenario (in which greenhouse emissions continue without reduction).

    Plagiarized from cnn.com

    • matthew

      And in related news, some comments from EPA chief Scott Pruitt. I think I am going to go puke now.

      “Is it an existential threat? Is it something that is unsustainable, or what kind of effect or harm is this going to have? I mean, we know that humans have most flourished during times of what? Warming trends,” Pruitt said. “I think there’s assumptions made that because the climate is warming, that that necessarily is a bad thing. Do we really know what the ideal surface temperature should be in the year 2100? In the year 2018? I mean it’s fairly arrogant for us to think that we know exactly what it should be in 2100.”

      • DrySprings6250

        Here’s what gets me about the whole deal and the reality is it doesn’t matter what side of the AGW debate one is on, the fact is that we’ve royally screwed up this planet and who cares whether or not ‘we’ are causing clime change let’s all get our shit together and make this a sustainable livable planet again, for Christ sake….it’s almost like an intentional distraction from the parent issue – we fucked shit up!!

        • matthew

          I hear ya. It just bums me out when I see such moronic straw man arguments from the head of our EPA.

          • DrySprings6250

            I didn’t mean to diflect away from that which I agree with 100% but meant to emphasize his stupidity is that much stupider by ignoring the greater issue pretending everything is OK whether or not climate change is human caused or not… ????

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Yep. My issue is the implication that the fight against global warming is a fight to save the planet. It is not. It is only meant to save humanity from rising oceans, more disease, etc. It won’t put fish back in our oceans, rain forests back on our lands, or animals back on our savannas.

        • jstrahl

          Most of those who deny AGW don’t think we’ve screwed up anything, at least not the global climate system.

      • Jim Finch

        Exactly what do you want him to state??

        • Robin White

          I resign.

        • matthew

          First choice : Articulate an action plan for dealing with the many environmental problems that we face.

          Or, if that ain’t happening…

          Second choice : Just about anything that shows that he understands the problem.

        • Tuolumne

          Show an understanding of the implications of our climate trajectory, instead of spewing facile, superficially plausible, but inexcusably ignorant (for a person in his position) statements.

          Stating that people have flourished most during warm periods totally ignores the question of the amount of warmth involved. The warmth we’re headed into is unprecedented in the history of civilization. Pruitt darned well knows that just because ‘some is good’ doesn’t mean that ‘more is better’, but that’s the implication of his argument here.

          No, nobody can specify an exact ‘ideal’ global temperature, but that’s not the point – that’s just a straw man and red herring to distract people.

          The real point is that the science clearly points to a rapidly increasing global temperature, particularly in the polar regions, that’s going to have a number of seriously bad effects that will just get much worse over time. These start with sea level rise that will devastate coastal regions over the next 100 years, continue with changed precipitation patterns that will wreak havoc with agriculture and lead to mass migrations in parts of the world, and include temperature increases that are in time likely to render significant portions of the tropics uninhabitable for humans.

          Add in the additional factor of the tremendous speed of these coming changes which ecosystems simply won’t be able to adapt to. Rate of change is a critical factor when looking at ecosystem adaptation. When entire forest ecosystems will need to migrate north 1000 miles in 100 years, well it just ain’t gonna happen.

          That’s just for starters.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Driving back to Rancho Cordova today from San Jose, and upon cresting the Altamont Pass, saw out in the distance west of the Sierras, these cumulonimbus build ups. I was STOKED! I didn’t snap these photos until I was by Stockton, and took Hwy 88 east to find an open area to capture the moment.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3f1f00c82f0bbc23b6331ca2e84743ce6784eb36835ccfb77002a792143d511.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d25854557df2680907fd638be11b2564b220b44e6729ec104b886c337d9362d3.jpg

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    This is the 18Z. The GEFS ensemble shows the same type of pattern. Time to put away the shorts and flip flops. I just hope this doesn’t lead to any big wind events. Pretty impressive HP area building on the east coast. I wonder what is going to transpire in March.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3883f39d2a0e7f0b4527b9485c5581adced21e1eb53d28cd3c086be02f6d1542.gif

  • Taz & Storm Master

    from sac NWS this PM

    Quiet weather expected through the end of the week with rain
    chances moving into the Mountains Sunday and Monday as a trough
    drops in from the northwest. The Euro is further west with this
    system and is able to pull in more moisture while the GFS is
    further east keeping it more of a dry system. Models do agree on a
    big push of cold air later Sunday into Monday. This will bring
    low snow level dropping them as low as 1500 feet Sunday night into
    Monday. Any precip that we do see could cause some travel issues
    in the Mountains. We will also see our above average temperatures
    fall below average for a change.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area
    100 PM PST Mon Feb 12 2018

    develop over much of the West Coast late in the forecast
    period. The ECMWF continues to be wetter compared to the GFS as a
    series of mid/upper level disturbances move across the region.
    Regardless, colder air from Canada will likely advect southward
    across the region and bring temperatures back to or below seasonal
    averages. In addition, snow levels could potentially fall below
    2,500 feet during this period as well. With that said, any systems
    that do impact the region do not appear to be moisture rich nor
    associated with any atmospheric rivers (no widespread beneficial
    rainfall likely).

  • Taz & Storm Master

    looks like snow levels up N will fall too 500 too 1,000ft

    Detailed forecast for
    Northern Sacramento Valley

    Washingtons BirthdayPartly cloudy with a slight chance of rain and snow. Highs around 54.

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      I see no mention of snow levels that low in what you posted…did you read that somewhere else ?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    That pattern change we’ve discussed for the 19th is turning heads now… & the right ones at that. https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/963199755823321088

    • jstrahl

      Warm and dry for cold and dry? Not quite the pattern change we really need.

      • That’s not true, it’s half of what we need. Any day we aren’t eclipsing 100 degrees in winter is a good day, aye!

        • jstrahl

          Did some sites actually get to 100? I’m genuinely asking, i don’t know. I saw Sandberg got to 88.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I think it is still a little early in the season to reach 100 as of yet. It can get into the low 90’s to maybe mid 90’s this time of year if conditions are just right.

          • Pfirman

            I learned the name Sandberg here and still think it is an awesome portent of our future.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Cold. Whether it’s wet or dry that is still in question and at best chances 50/50 because models aren’t consistently showing either or.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I just want the precip map showing above normal as opposed to below normal. What we need is cold and wet, not cold and dry or warm and dry.

  • matt
    • Pfirman

      Surprised you remember what to call them. Running Dry Springs is experiencing another kind of almost forgotten white stuff.

  • Cap’n

    Cold day with almost constant flurries and lazy flakes floating around. It’s no Donner Party storm but damn it feels nice to see a little bit of winter. Lets all start our rain and snow dances, we’ve got a month and a half left and the colder temps are setting up. Pray for a moisture tap!

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    We’ve been watching the RRR dominating our weather all winter. But with all my observing this going on, I don’t think I’ve seen the ridge cover such a vast area as this sat. image depicts. Our only chance of any precip, is for it to slide down from Canada, taking an overland trajectory. Absolutely locks out any chance of pacific moisture bringing us rain. It will stay cool/cold, I just hope this spells a lot of snow for the high country. But just, wow….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b14045bd2aaa5dfc1bc3efc79cb579b033829d4f6f84ada7b79c69d254e55a9.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Interesting question to consider, but if there was sea level snow in the Bay Area would lake effect snow/Bay affect snow occur with a NNW flow because of the Bay water being much warmer than the air and moisture moving over it?

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I would think the air mass would have to be very, very cold for that to happen, with a lot of wind.

  • matthew

    A genuine snow storm in the shire right now. Hope it lasts a while…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15dc68b3944953f347490da33411dfb86a316bf3b4c7c4664227f461ec12b9dd.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Just got here too. Coming from the east. Just watched it move in from across the lake, it dumped for about a minute or so. All of a sudden I can’t load photos, I got an Iphone 8 is that the problem? Took a cool sequence of shots as it moved in.

      • matthew

        It is already finished over here.

  • Thunderstorm

    February 19th, 2010 snowing at 4 inches an hour with visibility down to 300 feet. Location??? Skyline Blvd 13,000 feet above Saratoga. Maybe a repeat possible?? Nice to see dollar size flakes in some of the web cams in the Sierras today.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Up vote for the story

    • jstrahl

      Skyline Blvd 13,000 ft above Saratoga? Is that Cloud Nine? 🙂 Last time i was there, Highway 0 and Skyline, it was only some 2000 ft up.

      • Charlie B

        You beat me to that one.

        • Pfirman

          It is a state of mind, like Jefferson.

      • janky

        Ha! 13K and I’d be skiing pow turns a few miles from my house ? ? ?? ??

  • Cap’n

    Mt Rose has been getting hammered for the past hour. Looks like it’s been sitting over there by Al’s place of work and above, with little showers moving through and over here. Wonder if this will set up some lake effect for SLT.

    http://skirose.com/the-mountain/web-cams/

    • Peavine Violet

      I could see from Reno! All white

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Anybody in OC seeing drizzle across the coast? Spotty showers developing along there down to SD this evening just as HiRes models were calling for.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I haven’t seen any rain here yet in Orange today, but I saw dark clouds toward the coast just after sunset.

  • DrySprings6250

    What a difference a few miles make! It was coming DOWN at home, both big flakes and hail/grauple aplenty, a quick inch in 15 minutes or so as I was leaving….across the rim at Rimforest here it is dry but VERY foggy. ? what a drive! LOL

  • AlTahoe

    Currently 26F with heavy wind swept snow here in south lake. Winter weather feels weird

    • Cap’n

      I’ve been watching that little pocket between roughly Incline and Spooner, figured you’d might get snow on the drive home. I bet Rose pulled in a couple few inches this afternoon. All this is doing is making me want a big storm!

      • AlTahoe

        Drive home was gnarly right at Sand Harbor to just before Spooner summit. It was dumping huge flakes and the roads were covered with about 2″. It was dry on the rest of the drive home and then started dumping down here when I left the store around 5:45.

        • Cap’n

          Right on. I’m looking at radar over southern Utah now, filling in dark blue over Brian Head. We’re doing a Zion trip in mid March, I’m bringing my gear, hoping to squeeze a day in there if they’re even still open. They should get a foot or two tonight.

          • Charlie B

            What are doing in Zion?

          • Cap’n

            Annual trip with in laws, we got a place in Hurricane.

          • Pfirman

            Trying to kill his whole family in the narrows if a repeat of the above. Dude, that is serious territory.

          • Cap’n

            My mother in law grew up in the shantys of the Philippines, a little hike in water was nothing for her. Seriously though that was one fun day. Later in the afternoon we went off-roading in the mud. I nearly got my truck stuck. I’ll never forget the look on her face in the backseat when I was doing donuts; complete horror. My brother in law was in the front seat howling with laughter. The more scared she looked, the harder he laughed, and the line between being in the middle of the circle of trust and ousted to the outskirts was fine indeed.

          • matthew

            Where are you hiking at Zion? I am doing Bryce and Zion in late April. Day hikes. Planning Angels Landing and Fairyland Loop. Looking for some others.

          • Cap’n

            I’ve done Angels landing, we’re going to do Subway this time. I love Southern Utah, we snow shoed into Bryce several Januarys ago. Another good one to do is the narrows that’s a blast but probably chilly until late spring. We hiked it in hip deep water with my cackling Filipino mother in law and had to put run a thunder storm one summer what a blast!

        • Peavine Violet

          We got about 0.5/0.8” in Washoe / S Reno this morning – some this afternoon but didn’t stick too much. I could see it coming down over Mt Rose around 4.30 ish

  • March Miracle (SMX)

    Going to be a cold night tonight. I predict upper 30s and clear. Winter is finally here. All we need is rain, but there’s none in WU’s forecast as always.

  • Niteheron

    What a nice surprise, it is currently raining in Irvine. Was not expecting any rain today.

  • PRCounty (Santa Lucia’s)

    “Ship Tracks” – Daniel’s tweet on the right: Shipping is very efficient, allowing jobs to chase the planet’s cheapest labor and lowest production costs.

    Those jobs used to be here, allowing a middle class and things like a paid-for college education.

    Our policies have played out just as intended!

    And by burning the dirtiest of sludge for fuel in these large ships the costs (to some) stay low. A large percentage of CO2 in the atmosphere comes from shipping.

    In another recent article I read that carbon pollution from the textile industry has doubled from 2000 to 2015, easily surpassing all transportation.

    Wide-scale change is needed to avert climate catastrophe, not just a techno-fix, and you can see how some of the powers-that-be might have an issue with that change.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Where is this tweet about ship tracks that you are referring to? I want to read the article associated with it if there is one and I don’t see the tweet above on the right.

  • sir fislow

    Moderate rainfall near downtown LA. pleasant surprise. Very windy currently. As I’m writing this it’s started to downpour. 🙂

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Ah, I just got back on the site and saw this after tweeting it was starting to rain over there! Finally a report :D.

      • sir fislow

        I’m loving this miniature band overhead. Hoping there’s more to share for everyone overnight.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • RandomTreeInSB

      Hoping for a rain shower or 2 up here but it looks like most of the showers will stay to the south of VT/SB according to hi-res. Well at least the medium-long range, if it were to be believed, looks much more promising than a couple days ago.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Tomorrow may be your chance…

    • 00Z ICON coming in shows maybe 2x the H2O the 18Z had for the LA basin? Which still isn’t much. Hoping the overperformance overperforms.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’ll take it lol.

  • DrySprings6250
    • Cap’n

      Oh man that street looks good to have your dog pull you on your sley while alerting the neighbors that it’s “Accumulating!”

      • DrySprings6250

        Let me partake in Jahs offerings then I’ll hook up the sley!

        • Cap’n

          Dude radar looks good with another healthy batch near Irvine heading your way. I think I’m spotting snow falling on radar over Santiago Peak (is that the right name, it’s been awhile) Santa Ana range.

          • DrySprings6250

            I call it Saddleback because that’s what it looks like from here lol but yes I do believe the taller of the two peaks is Santiago peak at ~5k(?).

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Your dog looks confused by this strange white stuff. Confused, yet happy!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    GOES-East showing our features well this evening causing a stir across the bight. As you can see low-level water vapor imagery is having a hard time seeing the stratocumulus field that has been spinning all day into the south coast from OC south. Nighttime microphysics shows this slowly affecting areas along the coast further north overnight into the morning hours as the 500mb upper level low over the Sierras/Great Basin continues to push southwest before cutting off over Central California tomorrow late morning. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5a4eb2038679d75be12d75c38495b10358b45aceac44d780821324b645b13b89.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2e1146a998e588af3e7bdbe6e82ee0bcb97064705826967ababad709ef389c1d.gif

    • What are your thoughts on the latest GFS, and NAM shows the low actually cutting off and bringing it closer to the coast than past runs still intact before opening up. Really just hoping for some thunderstorms lol.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Ejection east is still questionable, but there is a chance the core could bring even more active weather tomorrow if it picks up enough steam offshore, definitely something to keep an eye on.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • weathergeek100

      Looks like the low center is pretty much over the city of Oxnard.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Just started to rain in Anaheim Hills. The dog didn’t know what the sound was an started barking. Something is better than nothing!

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Euro has been trolling us hard this season.

    https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/963273583471546368

    • Euro, Canadian, and GFS all showing some kind of cold system coming down around hour 240, not just cold either, all models showing a decent amount of precip. I’ll start biting on this by Saturday.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Amazingly it’s lasted into the 10 day… This is eye-brow raising for sure, but not one bit buying it.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      0z GFS shows a similar cold pattern but it looks mostly dry. I would rather have significant rainfall over remote chances of snow, but anything is better than extended period of sunshine and 80s in February.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Me too. Rather get more precip than a dusting.of powder

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      GFS looks the same.but storms need to shift further west

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I’ve seen this for a while know, may I add the Euro weeklies are colder than average and near average precip for late February and March. Better than dry and hot

    • David Mata

      Coastal snow? Downtown Los Angeles hasn’t had measurable snowfall since 1962. Same with San Diego.

    • Craig Matthews

      Will sure surprise the local vegetation that thinks it is spring, that is, if this happens. Interesting fact, we had sea level snow in latter Feb 2011, but didn’t stick on the ground except in some scattered areas between Morgan hill and Prunedale on the central coast. Back in either 1950 or ’51, it snowed down to sea level in early March in the Monterey area.

  • PRCounty (Santa Lucia’s)

    On the question of why folks won’t buy into human caused climate change:

    It’s hard to get people to acknowledge science when their paycheck depends upon them trashing it.

    What did the owner of one of the country’s largest commercial fishing enterprises do?

    “He saw an opportunity eight years ago when the government moved forward with a new regulatory system in New England, after Congress mandated that science-based limits be used to prevent overfishing.”

    Here’s the problem, after his conviction and jailing for overfishing:

    “There are a lot of people on this waterfront, very hardworking people, whose livelihood depends on Carlos’s landings,” said Jon Mitchell, the mayor of New Bedford. “They don’t deserve to suffer along with him.”

    “Tony Fernandes, a captain on one of Mr. Rafael’s boats, said he was collecting unemployment benefits and waiting to learn when he may be able to fish again. “He’s putting in his time and he paid his fine,” he said of Mr. Rafael. “We are in limbo.”

    “I go home, I can’t sleep,” said Anne Jardin-Maynard, the owner of a settlement house, which handles payroll and accounting for fishing boats, including Mr. Rafael’s. “It’s the ice plants, the fuel companies, the gear places — everybody’s affected by this.”

    Take a poll, think the fish (climate) are gonna win?

    https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/11/us/commercial-fishing-regulation-codfather.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    • Pfirman

      It’s tough, no doubt. Many, including the orange dumpster fire, still don’t know the difference between weather and climate. Weather can bite you in the ass tomorrow….climate can take out your grandkids.

      • Tangocity

        Ummmkay

    • molbiol

      Not sure how this relates to climate change (though I get the point you are making). The article is addressing regulations designed to keep cod populations intact which fishermen depend on for livelihoods. However, the reason these people are in a bind is because of the fraud, lying, laundering and embezzlement committed by the owner.

    • Sokafriend

      You skewed the general report and greater message of the article. Old rotten gangster od the seas Carlos is not a victim. And those many ocean going thugs he employed did not choose between a pay check and climate protection- if they had respected the regulations everyone could probably still be ar work. The avaricious ring leader created a false economy with contraband cod by plundering through over harvest of a vanishing species. Four years is a short sentence for the devastation he caused. Maybe he can learn something while he’s in prison.
      The cod, like the planet and other species can’t win if greedy, arrogant sleazy mob bosses alongside their pandering fishing cartel captains and corrupt cronies continue to run their manipulative predatory business rackets-
      So between climate changed currents and warmer waters ravaged by self proclaimed “pirates”, who knows what chances of recovery the “fish” as you call them have- it’s specifically the cod population that the regulations tried to protect.
      . As to winning over climate change, we must hope justice prevails and these ongoing regulation battles aren’t lost too, owing to a lack of vigilance against contining stupid and willfullly criminal behavior.
      Or much less by the meandering, relentless, senseless distortion of scientific reason.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    GEFS has a RRT (Ridiculously Resilient Trough) over California for 10 days straight. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/794e0bd74096ebe80c54c96084ca8a255a9df04e88831c498020ee101440e785.gif

    • I like RRT better than RRR. Lol!

    • March Miracle (SMX)

      That’s nice, but will we ever see rain coming???

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        It.needs to.move.further west.over water. The Sierras could.see a little.powder. we need the.hp.area to shft northwest

    • jstrahl

      Unfortunately, looks dry, too land-bound.

    • David Mata

      The Climate Prediction Center for their 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts did a complete reversal on their temperature predictions. Yesterday they were both forecasted as warm/dry. But today, they’re were switched to cold/dry, which is more typical of a La Niña pattern.

    • Craig Matthews

      Hopefully the trough will verify a bit further west.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    Getting some light rain right now here in Orange. There was a brief shower earlier this evening as I was eating dinner.

  • RDLA

    Moderate to sometimes heavy rain with some hail for last half hour in Palos Verdes

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Hmm…

    SHORT TERM (MON-THU)…12/940 PM.

    A trough of low pressure centered over the Central Valley
    continues to rotate toward the southwest. Radar imagery continues
    to indicate shower activity developing and becoming more
    widespread over Los Angeles County. These showers should start
    moving toward Ventura County as the night progresses. PoPs
    have nudged higher for tonight and into Tuesday to reflect the
    current activity combined with model suggestions. PoPs may be
    underdone for Tuesday morning.

    A vorticity maximum near the Bay Area tonight will elongate the
    trough center, while pulling the trough offshore through
    Wednesday. With the trough pulling offshore, the best chance for
    any rainfall should be tonight through Tuesday. There is another
    possible chance on Wednesday afternoon, when the trough
    circulation moves closer to the area.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yep, good call on their part!

  • Y. Pestis

    The ground was a little wet when I got home this evening. The station gauge says .02″ here in Lytle Creek. Funny thing is for 7ish miles coming up the canyon. The road was completely dry.

    On another topic, looks like graupel covering the bald eagle ? trying to protect its newly hatched nestlings, one yesterday, the 2nd today. I know Ben Franklin thought the turkey should have been the national emblem (wild ones are pretty smart), but watching that eagle protect her nestling from serious winds and cold, makes me think we got the right bird.

    • alanstorm

      So glad to see bald eagle making a comeback in CA.
      There was one hanging around the reservoir behind Willits a few years ago.

      • Somehow many were in Minneapolis earlier this month. Males and females with odd green coloring.

      • Pfirman

        When I took in the little screech owl to UCDavis I saw they had a golden eagle. Damn that is a big bird. Could not tell what was wrong with it. Reminds me I need to check up on the owl. They already had one keeper owl.

        • alanstorm

          Godspeed, Mr. Screech!

          The area between us, Cache Cr, etc, is the biggest wintering area for bald eagles in the lower 48.
          Bound to see one again

          • Pfirman

            Usually they are in a very hard to get to area, but there is one nest I heard of right off Hwy. 16 in Cache Creek Canyon below the park. I can’t remember if they said it was a Bald or Golden though.

  • Sokafriend

    It’s showering again on rhe border- first little round 35 minutes ago didn’t dampen the driveway- this one lasted 10 minutes and the ultra light precip is running off into the street.
    Many stations reporting in SD vicinity- only Ramona showing a trace .01, so far.
    It’s 53, falling down to much cooler low 40’s tonight. I’m still betting on Wednesday.

  • Fairweathercactus

    3 swings and a miss on the 0z for decent rainfall for So Cal. It all stays to far offshore or inland. Just more comedy gold from this winter.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Also had a moderate shower. Radar is showing some strange things tonight for So Cal.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    I had some on and off rain here in Orange for a couple of hours or so tonight. This is the first measurable rain in this area since the lone storm in January. I will post a storm total when the storm is over.

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      .15 here on the hill. What did you end up with?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        0.10″ here in Orange.

  • Bombillo1

    LA Times article citing the numbers we here know too well. Even quotes Daniel, who with great deference, labels this current storm “not what we need”. I will be more succinct, it’s bullshit. http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-rain-dry-california-20180213-story.html

  • thebigweasel

    Gentle rain and 48 in SB now.

  • Idaho Native

    Fantasy land looking particularly good for daydreaming this AM on GFS. It seems like a state wide storm on the 23/24 has shown up several runs now?

    • weathergeek100

      It’ll be gone soon.

    • Freddy66

      It has shown up for several days now….been consistent during that time frame

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Only 0.25″ of graupel which translated into 0.09″ of precip. It’s all gone now. Coated the tree branch ends briefly, which is always nice.

  • DrySprings6250

    It really dumped last night, check it out!! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8245c7441305487793ba63a944625144876d25f876edc04c621e6792cdc942d2.jpg

    OK OK fine that is where the grauple piles up by the corner of the house ??? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bda1992a97dde9028cf9c4d87c89d9be9711c8f618fd6922ce04381582b13c61.jpg

    A solid 2” is the best we can do and a nice dry snowfall BUT lots of grauple and hail so let’s see what it melts down to!

    Highest total was lower in elevation right here at city creek ranger station with almost .60” rain.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      That’s certainly better than nothing!

  • Robin White

    In this morning’s New York Times:
    https://nyti.ms/2BtqHHY

    • Chris

      I wish they would get one fact straight.
      2015-16 was not a drought year. There was indeed a shortage of water due to the previous years, but precip was at or slightly above average…. except for Southern California that season.

    • nunbub

      I submitted a revision in a comment on the article. They wrote that “extreme” drought was the highest category of drought, but I told them it was “exceptional” drought that is the highest. I felt smart for a quick second lol.

      • nunbub

        Also, thanks for sharing!

  • CHeden

    FWIW, Spidey senses are off the charts this am.
    Here’s the 06Z GFS deterministic run for the NH.
    Honestly, I’m not so much model riding, but instead I’ve chosen this particular run to illustrate what I have been keying in on for the last several days now:

    In a nutshell, what we’re going to be seeing is a gradual weakening/demise of twin polar vortex’s, (one over NE Canada and another over NE Asia/Kamchatka) and what happens thereafter as a result.

    Like an ice skater, as vorticity increases, the wind field pulls inward towards the center. Conversely, as vorticity eases, the wind field expands and becomes susceptible to being displaced by both developing cyclones or building ridges.
    At present (see image 1), the twin PV’s are strong, with the NA PV keeping the coldest air bottled up north of the Canadian border. In between the two PV’s, very high amplitude HP is nosing well into Alaska which is displacing a tongue of cold air out of the PV southwestward over Cent/SoCal (an important feature to note, as it looks like this same idea will continue to be repeated in one form another several times over the course of about 2-3 weeks at least).
    By Sunday, (see image 2), we see the NPac HP ridge pushing all the way to near the North Pole. This pulse in the ridge (see green finger in image 3) will do two things: Destructively interfere with the PV’s cyclonic circulation as well as establish another NE-SW outflow from the cold core that pushes SW well past the NW coast.
    Once this trough gets established (see image 4), it should continue to act as a major highway for cold air to drain out of Canada, thus further weakening the PV, and generating periods of cyclogenesis off the NW coast resulting from cold continental air moving out over open water (where it picks up enough heat and moisture to sustain several low pressure systems in a high sheer environment). Once formed, these systems will then dive south within the mean trough, dragging very cold air down into California, and thus continue to weaken the PV which in turn releases more cold air that gets displaced into the west coast troughing (see image 5).
    While the upper air pattern seems to be getting more and more refined by the GFS, which BTW seems to be coming in line with other model’s thinking, precip forecasts continue to have wildly varying amounts depicted.
    ATTM it looks like it all depends on the precise track of the low(s), as perhaps only a 50-100 mile shift in any direction could have significant impact.
    It should be noted, that several (but not all) of the recent GFS runs (including ensembles) have been showing the emerging pattern will hang around for a good while, with at least one and perhaps several other lows that will have both an offshore location (and thus a source of moisture) and will also be tapping into frigid continental air flowing SW within the mean trough. Together, these two factors would easily translate to some very low snow levels by week 4 should enough moisture get pushed inland by the passing lows and ride over trapped cold air near the surface.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/338b77049716089244fc38c27d53319c260efb5d60844dd26fed45c3b302051a.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e18d06a544e42f333cd81ec2d1436594cefb3ddd3cab053b1af54234fa147e30.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2d2e073b8e3b9f29c19b34f4583dce58ed510a73a6b754f2affad4d0f6a8f9a3.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72ba16c0c399981edbb4e40c1e76ff8a6b297b8bf720afbf95497cda94838a0e.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e4d9c6f065fac857411c3f5d52c6b8fc02fe61250494e629aebd2d8eafde4df.png

    • I was an oddball that spun clockwise. Could never do pairs for that reason.

      • jstrahl

        I spin at music shows i go to, and have always spun clockwise.

        • CHeden

          I spun vertically….
          i.e. up and down.

          • I spin repeatedly sometimes for fun but only during annual upset training and practice. Also I know some people that spin all day, they are USCG Dolphin pilots…

      • CHeden

        A perfect example of Destructive Interference.
        (sound of clunk on ice and two black eyes). LoL 🙂

    • jstrahl

      You have done excellent analyses a bunch of times, this is one of your best. Thanks a lot. I have to say, looking at the last, that it still doesn’t allow for much of an over-ocean path for lows, so i’m not too sanguine about rainfall, hope we do get some precipitation and especially snow.

    • Bombillo1

      I second jstrahl’s compliment. It is difficult to find a concise MR analysis with sufficient science to elevate the prediction beyond a Madam Cleo wing it.

      • I’m a moron who knows nothing other than pattern analysis so I approach it differently. Recently one of my intuitions was expressed clearly enough that Daniel decided it deserved annunciation. That’s the best I can do.
        This level of analysis in CHedens latest post confirms that he is either a retired/current weather weenie employed by a private company/state?
        Or he has way too much time on his hands; something that often comes to mind is I feel like I’m reading an AFD when I read these. Which is great for us Weather Westeenies.

        • EDIT: I take it back, CHeden is superior to an AFD as he has powerpoint slides. Ha

    • AlTahoe

      I posted above but it looks like the setup between wet and cold versus dry and cold for us is where the Kona low ultimately sets up.

      • CHeden

        It will have an impact..but I think the low (not really a “Kona” low, IMHO), is part of a Rex low trapped underneath the NPac High.
        Regardless, these type of lows can sometimes ride clockwise around the high and in turn throw some energy (constructively) into the High’s western flank and help push the HP ridge further north.
        In turn, this displaces more colder air into the downstream troughing over California. With all this cold air and troughing off the coast, to me it just seems unlikely that NOTHING would get spun up at some time or another.

        • AlTahoe

          Yeah I agree we will see something. It might be the difference between 1 or 2 storms with over water trajectory or 3-6 storms with good over water trajectory. When looking at the last 6 GFS runs it looks like the ridges East – West location is being pulled around by the Kona low. Sometimes it is to close to us, and other times just far enough west to deliver. Euro really pulled the HP East over us on the last run.

    • Craig Matthews

      Great analysis, as you always do. The location of the trough axis per each model run as of late has me on the edge of my seat. Like you say, just a tad east or west could have major implications to our temps and precip, especially our precip. I hope to see the trough axis favorably align off the West Coast with a large coherent cyclonic field that would grab pacific moisture over the ocean, lift it into dynamic bands of precip, and swing them inland in a sw to ne direction over the state, as the axis would be aligned offshore. This would bring beneficial rains, but also great upslope/orographically enhanced snowfall in the Sierra down to lower elevations.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I’ll hopefully have some input for you this afternoon on the Euro. Absolutely fantastic analysis and on board with your current thinking. Glad you took note of the positive vorticity streamer associated with the Polar Vortex attached to the CoL now forming offshore. It’s definitely a sign of things to come even 7 days out from the real changes move in.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    A big zero here but showers were reported in nearby Burbank/ La Crescenta last night. Maybe rain will happen before the low moves into Baja tomorrow. Yesterday was quite cool. 65/ 49

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I got some sprinkles overnight in Downey, but I noticed some significant cells slide by to my North and South, so I’m sure neighboring cities got more noteworthy precipitation. Doppler was looking like Long Beach & Seal Beach got some measurable rain.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • March 1st? Seriously? Is anyone learning anything from fantasy land models this year?

      • Taz & Storm Master

        other models not just the GFS has all so been hiting at low snow too vary low snow levels

      • DrySprings6250

        When Storm Master speaks, we listen!

      • CHeden

        March 1st is actually the third (or fourth) chance of snow that’s been variously depicted….some runs had low snows as early as the 23/24…which is now in the MR.
        But don’t key on the details yet. (BTW, please note my recent analysis. )
        While details are admittedly sketchy, the key thing to look for is the gradual progression of the HP ridge displacement and PV weakening that all the models have been variously depicting…..i.e. it’s not so much a single event, but rather a developing generic pattern with reasonably long-term implications.

        • “…with reasonably long-term implications…” https://media.giphy.com/media/BYhoMtJMQsYVy/giphy-facebook_s.jpg

        • Fish Farmer (Fresno)

          But do you think systems will be moisture starved with this scenario?

          • CHeden

            Depends a LOT on the low’s tracks. 100 miles either way and it’s either a carnival or a funeral.

        • Pfirman

          Pretty sure you meant developing ‘general’ pattern. There is nothing generic about anything happening this winter. If RRR becomes ‘generic’ just shoot me now.

          • CHeden

            You are correct, oh master of the clever word. There would be nothing “generic” about this pattern should it set up as it well might.

        • Once these changes actually start happening and the storms start coming I will be more than willing to believe a pattern change is happening.

          • CHeden

            The tracks of the current run of inside sliders is slowly shifting west, and IMHO, is evidence that the pattern is already evolving. The main question now, is how far west the ridge will progress over time? We shall see.

          • Pfirman

            Anything to stop the current lower Sac Valley relentless run of drying north winds, searingly clear sunshine, and blue, blue sky.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        While not trusting specific solutions that far out, I do like the long range model trends so far heading into March.

        I wasn’t expecting much from February anyways, having pretty much written it off, but I think March will be good.

        • Nathan

          Nice to see blue on the GEFS/EPS ensembles over CA for once.

        • I understand about the models. I only get the GFS, which has consistently shown at the end of the runs, for months, that rain is coming. Only to have storms do EXACTLY what this current one is doing, which is to say, evaporating as it slams into the Forever Ridge.

          I am desperate for rain. I would be thrilled to death if our pattern changed and we got significant rain. I hope that the “new” pattern change is real. But if I was forced to bet money on it, I would bet against the pattern change and rain happening, based on past model performance.

          Looking at a model 10-15 days out (especially this season)is as accurate a method of guessing future weather as breaking open Chinese fortune cookies.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Its the only horse they know how to ride !!!

      • Bombillo1

        We have trouble learning anything. What is left of the LA Times this morning published an article announcing water restrictions for the entire state that will now be permenant. One comment left sums it all up perfectly, “Does this mean no more development in OC”? And, of course, it doesn’t mean that at all…

      • alanstorm

        Hey- it’s in the 16 day window of probability!

    • weathergeek100

      Keep dreaming

  • AlTahoe

    The models keep changing the location of the block on every run. When comparing all of the previous runs it comes down to where the stupid Kona low is located. In December the Kona low ruined any chances for cold and snow so hopefully it doens’t ruin this setup as well.

    • Craig Matthews

      Yeah I remember that last downer. Hopefully a deep west coast trough will win out this time and the Kona Low wont pump up a sub tropical ridge that offsets, what could be, a nice deep west coast trough.. And if the Kona Low were to phase properly into the northern stream trough off the west coast and head straight for central.socal, with norcal in the colder wet stuff, that would sweetness. Its a wishcast right now, but hopefully things will come together for us soon here.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    It’s a bummer that the core of the low spins off the coast over 100mi Southwest of SoCal with all those intense thunderstorms, and they will dissipate out there before ever coming ashore.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8efded193062e438f1a0724c04249033d9e4ea59b4b68bb58d1ac8a67a388abf.gif

    • Nathan

      Yeah. This system sucks. Bald man, comb etc etc.

    • Craig Matthews

      Their potential look severe in those frames. Too bad. At least it looks like AZ NM will get in on the sub-tropical tap along with this system. They need it bad, just like we do.

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • Bro you gotta start posting gifs. TT makes it easy, need a refresher?

      • I know your tongue is planted in your cheek. Do you need a refresher in editing a post so you don’t have two posts? LOL

        • I was going to edit but then I realized this is Storm Master we are dealing with, if he goes by inbox email alone he wouldn’t see it. Also don’t know whether his Commodore 64 can even refresh disqus edited comments properly, or whether he has had an internet explorer browser tab, just one, open since 2007, tuned into this website and only this website. :0

    • It’s like looking at a freeze frame in a car wreck video. Tells a lot, but still not part of the whole picture.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    This note from BA-seems to match up to what we’re seeing in the long term models. Also matches up to what many of us have noted in the past March is a great month for snow when we see extended dry patterns.

    “Overall March is the snowiest month of the 10 lowest snowfall years. We tend to break out of the patterns that were keeping us dry all Winter in March as Spring approaches in drier years. So we will have to see if that happens again. “

    • Henry

      2006 and 2011 were wet winters, unlike this one. There is the potential for changing seasons to shake up weather patterns in March. However that has not been the pattern in recent dry years such as 2013, 2014, and 2015, when March was just as dry as the rest of the winter. We did have a wet March in 2016, but that was a slightly wetter than average El Nino year.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Both those winters included extended dry spells for the Sierra, yes there was more snow than this year. 2011 was a strong La Nina as we are seeing this year. Yes there are some signs that are different but it’s not unheard of for the Sierra to see massive piles of snow late in the season (March into April) quite possibly that is where we are headed again. Many fans of skiing/boarding will often say March is the best time in the Sierra at most resorts.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Yep, without a doubt!!

  • Taz & Storm Master

    here what weather W said on GIFs stuff

    Weather West Mod • a month ago
    Folks: in the interest of remaining on-topic, focused, and self-policing (as this comments section has been for a full 11 years now!), I’m announcing a “soft ban” on distracting content like non-weather/climate GIFs. These have started to creep in with increasing frequency, and I agree it’s detracting from the overall discourse. I’ll be deleting all such posts from this point forward. In general: if you notice that your posts are consistently being deleted, please take that as a strong hint.

    Also, while discussions of run-to-run model output changes are certainly on-topic, I’d strongly encourage model-riders to consider limiting the number of frame-by-frame reproductions of data easily accessible on public sites. That way, the relatively limited visual “real estate” in the comments section can be more easily conserved, and will support a sustained thread of conversation.

    Thanks, all! I appreciate everyone’s effort in keeping the comments section on Weather West one of the best on the web. 🙂

    • Indeed. But note that weather-related GIFs are fine! (And, are, in fact, often preferable to a long sequence of individual images). Thanks!

      • Taz & Storm Master

        ok thanks for clearing that up

  • AlTahoe

    This tweet gives me hope that the next 2-5 years will give us a more normal winter weather regime. The ssw event finally dislodged the Greenland bafflin bay vortex that has been stuck in place since the last SSW event in Jan 2013.
    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/963431109336985603

    • Dogwood

      So a dominant blocking feature is now changed, for the betterment of our weather?
      Can anyone cliff note this for the non-paid subscribers?
      It would be appreciated.

    • molbiol

      blocking over Greenland is not the best pattern for California

      • CHeden

        …unless it has a brother further west and a mega-trough in between!
        If this were verify, arctic air fortified with frigid Siberian air would be directed over much/all of the West Coast as well as over relatively warm water. The flow initially would be mostly dry, but it also would be conducent to localized cyclogenesis events which could pull in extra moisture and increased dynamics that could change things in a hurry. Annnnd, if this pattern were to lock, then we might be looking at a long-term cold & troughy pattern to get established.

        • Yolo Hoe

          I like those fluid dynamics!

          • CHeden

            You bet.
            Even more dynamic when the fluid is good Scotch.
            LoL!

          • Yolo Hoe

            In my field, we prefer to say ‘going to the molecular level’!

            Cheers and many thanks for the pattern analysis discussion below — wise and measured words — looking forward to sharing a good single malt one of these days.

          • CHeden

            Chase season is coming up. Maybe hook up on the road?

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Thor has spoken!

          Let it be so.

        • molbiol

          Perhaps if the block were a little further west?

        • inclinejj

          Cold in Northern California is any temp lower than 60!
          In Southern California any temp under 70!

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          You got that right!

      • I agree. An east based negative NAO isn’t. It worked in Feb 2001 through which looks a little more like the forecasts we are seeing now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bfa25095e26d7b526ff17b7c50c548a82045752cd3e59fd48aad37d4d9e38559.jpg

          • nunbub

            Beautiful pics!

        • molbiol

          during the infamous 94-95 winter the block was in an unusual location (I can’t remember where) which contributed to Socal getting hammered by atmospheric rivers. I agree though about 2001 which was a weak Nina if I recall correctly. Jan of 2001 was drier than average though not to the extreme of this year

          • 94-95 was an ME. Fortunately the block was nowhere to be found in the N Pacific. Oh how I enjoyed the 90’s. Correct wrt 2001-02. East was torched. MidWest froze and CA was very chilly in Feb 2001

          • molbiol

            ME? What does that stand for? And yes, the NPac Block was nowhere to be found in 94-95 but I was referring to the Greenland block being in an unusual location.

          • M El Nino..gotcha! El Ninos will almost always put a persistent block south of Hudson Bay as in 1994-95

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            I am going to roll out my missile carrying a high pressure warhead and explode it over Hudson Bay 🙂

          • nunbub

            I don’t think you want to do that. There’s a reason they call extremely low pressure “bombs” lol

          • molbiol

            Got it!!

  • Fairweathercactus

    Time for the Cactus to speak. Winter is over the cold that you see on the models will shift more to the East in the next day or two like it has all winter. Winter will be over in the next 2 weeks and start planing your plants early cause by July it will be 108 in downtown.

    Take a picture of this post and mark Cactus mighty word.

    • Yay! Ocean temps will be 75 with abundant Mahi Mahi for everyone!

  • Fairweathercactus

    I have been having great visions about the weather as of late. So great that I will be introducing my monthly forecast for March soon. Let me tell you if you like warm dry weather you are in for a treat.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Please stop tormenting us. The SSW may alter your forecast, yes?

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        FairweatherCactus’ forecasts are more predictable than the weather itself.

  • hermit crab

    Well just because significant rain would have been bad just over the burned places didn’t mean it couldn’t rain anywhere else in the area, or the rest of SoCal! I guess the Giant Rain Vacuum sucked it all up.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Next week could be even cooler and may include rain I hope

  • molbiol

    0.00in of precip here in Lancaster from this “storm”. Three and a half days ago it looked like an impressive deformation zone/convective outbreak would impact the high deserts. I know that cutoffs are difficult for models to forecast and suspected that this storm would screw us over, but my goodness!! Talk about a let down. Its just not in the stars this winter. No more model riding for me for the time being

    • Al (Victorville)

      Never rained over here either but did heard reports by Barstow and the 18/138 interchange near Phelan that they did get some brief light rain yesterday, which if it were July, it would be the hotspot for monsoon T-storms to form. Also, SW winds were not only stronger than expected but it was more southerly than westerly, so that moved everything more north and west.

      • molbiol

        during the monsoon that area you mentioned is usually the first trigger point where convection initiates. It also part of the eastern antelope valley eddy convergence zone….:-)

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • hermit crab

      Gorgeous!

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Buttitta is morning news anchor at KEYT

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Dawn, like an angel, heralds the day!

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        “Dew on the grass like the tears the night wept
        Gone long before the day wears old”

        Dan Fogelberg, The Sand and the Foam

  • @WeatherWest:disqus
    Well, with that being said, I just hand made this one – I call it a GFS Guidance Evolution GIF. The goal being to show how the guidance has evolved – I’m not a fan of the way TT doesn’t have an option to stack the 384hr results 29 runs deep, I feel it gives a good indication of whether the model is flailing or not. Also trying to indicate evolution of the donut and the ensuing collapse as I find this graphic to be an easy way to demonstrate where the dry sets up. What are your thoughts on the upcoming changes?
    imgur.com/WLxNa0R

    • Sokafriend

      I think it’s great- especially like the stylized drawing toward the end.

  • DrySprings6250

    Another incredible snow:water ratio. While we may have only measured ~2” snowfall the liquid equivalent is .62” which is much appreciated from the training showers jay set up here for a bit yesterday evening/night.

    And it looks like the guys at the fire station in town measured the snow in the grauple pile close to the door and not out in the open, lol! 4” my butt!

    48-HOUR PRECIPITATION STORM TOTALS AS OF 801 AM TUESDAY

    .SNOWFALL REPORTS

    LOCATION SNOW(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

    RUNNING SPRINGS 4 6225
    GREEN VALLEY LAKE 3 6873
    ARROWBEAR LAKE 2 6190
    BLUE JAY YARD 1 5372
    BIRCH HILL (PALOMAR MOUNTAIN) 1 5700

    • Taz & Storm Master

      models are not that dry lol

    • GuestForToday

      For someone who studies argument (I do), this is an interesting move. Seems like you’re trying to tamp down the weather debates that have been happening on this board over the potential for moisture in the next couple weeks. Is this because you’re worried that short-term optimism is correlated with decreased concern about climate change?

      • matthew

        I read it as Daniel weighing in with his opinion. Your last sentence is just silly. I am being kind.

        • GuestForToday

          Agree to disagree!

          • Patrick from Stockton

            And I actually agree with you. OK, I won’t elaborate. Other’s on here have read my criticism of our host in the past.

          • GuestForToday

            Well, I don’t want to criticize (not my blog, etc). And, there may actually be some correlation! But it’d be interesting to know if that communication strategy is intentional on Daniel’s part, or just something I’m seeing there myself (this is the nice version of what matthew was implying).

      • coldestsummer

        Or, and this is just me spit-balling here, he’s doing his job and forecasting the weather?

      • He has a lot of readers here also follow him on twitter. It makes sensible sense to post a tweet and also link it here. Rough day?

        • GuestForToday

          Not the medium so much as the message was what I was interested in. Wasn’t a rough day until I posted lol.

      • I call it how it see it; it’s as simple as that. There’s no grand strategy here: despite the large-scale pattern shift, which will likely bring much cooler weather, there’s little evidence that significant precipitation will fall. It’s a point worth emphasizing, since it’s not obvious that such a big shift could occur without a substantial rain event; yet that’s exactly what looks likely in this case.

        • In other words: this is just an assessment of the same information used by NOAA to produce this outlook (which comes to essentially the same conclusion: cooler, finally, but still very dry in California):
          https://twitter.com/NWSCPC/status/963508558041112576

          • GuestForToday

            Fair enough. Thanks for the response.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          That is how I see it Daniel. You call it as you see it. We hate reading these comments but those of us who follow the model runs are not surprised. It is what it is. the CFSv2 does not like chances for March precip. The NMME projects a little better. What do you think of model accuracy this far out for March?

      • Bombillo1

        You were doing OK until that last sentence. Indeed hope has been flickering a bit here of late but to ascribe that motivation to Swain’s post was a bit much.

      • molbiol

        The general consensus has been that the trough would be too far inland and that the result would be cold weather but no significant storms. A few model runs were trending a bit west with the trough but no one has indicated any big storms and Daniel is simply stating what all the models and forecasters at local offices are indicating. Did I miss something? ..I’m very confused here…

      • GuestForToday

        Yikes, lotta dislike for this comment. Didn’t mean any negativity or criticism, sorry if it came across that way. I actually wonder if there is a link between people’s long term and short term outlooks (I tend to think folks can handle contradiction there, but I wonder if I’m wrong). Anyway, that’s just interesting to me, is all. Certainly not a “rough day” as 2pluvious asked, ha.

      • nunbub

        Curbing our optimism about weather would be very counterproductive for him…

    • Chris

      Boo!!!!
      Very low snow elevation???

    • weathergeek100

      Unbelievable. We go from one drought pattern to the next. At least in early January, the omega block broke down and the pattern changed to wet for the northern half of the state. Now, it’s just going to be ongoing dry. Wow.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        IDK we haven’t changed drought patterns. It is the same pattern that has existed all month. The difference now is that the polar vortex has broken down and there is a HP area to the east. The storm track has shifted west and the storms are now coming over us. With the trough in the east leaving, hopefully the hp area moves off before heading into March

      • Thunderstorm

        Dry and windier going into spring.

    • CHeden

      OK, I’ll buy the “for the next 10 days”.
      Hopefully the 10 days after that will be different.

    • CHeden

      Up here in Cottonwood, 0.2″ is enough for 2″ of snow.
      I’ll take it.

    • Azmordean

      When are we expecting the change? For Mountain View theres no highs much below 60 in the forecast 10 days out. Are the automated internet forecasts just not catching on to the change?

      I’d prefer rain but I’ll take cooler than average too!

    • alanstorm

      For my area, this winter is a total bust as far as water tables & dry streams. After virtually no rain in 2 of the 3 rainiest months of the year, a few rain events here & there by summer won’t do anything other then water the brush & grasses.
      Right now, the grasses are very short & will brown out & die early without the usual bright-green spring explosion of growth.
      The bad is wildfires starting sooner than normal, the good is much less fuels to burn.
      Last year I had 6ft grasses!

      Inevitably, it looks to be an early start to ANOTHER brutal fire season with every offshore wind event bringing the possibility of catastrophe.

  • honzik

    I’m noticing what looks like the subtropical jet pushing over the top of the Hawaiian Islands, with such a surge that it pushes past the “comma” pattern from the low just up and to the left. It seems there’s a lot of momentum there – like a large scale wind burst.

    I haven’t noticed something like this before and am wondering if it means anything…

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/h5-loop-wv.html