Strikingly dry conditions persist; Thomas Fire now largest California wildfire

Filed in Uncategorized by on December 24, 2017 3,867 Comments

Bone dry in Southern California, and below average precip throughout CA

All of California is now experiencing well-below-average precipitation for the season to date. Southern California has seen almost no precipitation at all. (WRCC).

It has been an extraordinarily dry autumn and early winter across Southern California. Northern California had been faring better in the precipitation department so far this season, with near-average autumn rains in most areas. But in recent weeks, Southern California’s dryness has begun to expand northward along the Pacific Coast–now encompassing all of California, and even beginning to creep north of the state line into parts of the Pacific Northwest.

Why has California been so dry? (Regular blog visitors already know where I’m going with this.) Well, a remarkably persistent zone of atmospheric pressure has been present more often than not across the region for the past few months. Early in the season, this ridge was centered across Southern California and the interior Southwest–but recently, a broader “full-latitude” ridge feature has expanded to encompass much of the West Coast. This temporal evolution is the reason for the SoCal/NorCal precip split early in the season. A couple of months ago, Pacific storms had been redirected only slightly to the north of the SoCal metro areas due to subtropical ridging (into the Bay Area and points northward). More recently, the bigger & stronger West Coast ridge has pushed the Pacific storm track even further north. Remarkably, this powerful ridge has forced several very moist atmospheric river storms over the mid-Pacific to make a hard “left turn” over the open ocean–veering directly northward and bringing almost inconceivably heavy snowfall to the coastal mountains of southern Alaska.

 

Thomas Fire becomes largest wildfire in modern California history–in December

The Thomas Fire has become the largest wildfire in modern California history–in December. (Via NASA)

One conspicuous and locally devastating consequence of the delayed rainy 2017 rainy season in Southern California is the extension of wildfire season well into winter. While December wildfires are not unheard of in this part of the world, the extent and severity of the December 2017 fires in SoCal really is unprecedented in California history. The Thomas Fire–which has now burned nearly 275,000 acres and over a thousand structures in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties–yesterday became the single largest wildfire in modern California history. That this dubious milestone was reached in December, which is typically the midst of the California rainy season, is truly extraordinary. Indeed, recent months have brought not only near-record low precipitation, but also record-high temperatures across a wide swath of SoCal.

This long-term warmth and dryness set the stage for an unusually prolonged stretch of land-to-sea Santa Ana winds in recent days to push recent fires far further and faster than would usually be possible this time of year. An amazing indicator of how anomalous this winter airmass was: on several occasions over the past 2 weeks, relative humidities near the beaches of Southern California fell as low as 1%–with surface dewpoints at or below -20F in some nearby spots, and column water vapor under 0.1 inch. In other words: there was essentially no moisture at all in the airmass that has lingered over SoCal for many days. While long-term humidity records are hard to come by in most spots, all signs suggest that these were at or near record-low humidity values for many of these recording stations (and certainly for the time of year).

 

Is this (another) return of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge?

Persistent high pressure ridging over the American West has kept conditions unusually warm and dry so far this autumn and early winter, especially across Southern California and Arizona. (NOAA via ESRL).

This is a question that I’ve been hearing increasingly often in recent days. “The Triple R” certainly has anxiety-inducing connotations for many Californians who endured record-breaking drought just a few years ago. (This is something to which I can personally attest: I live in Los Angeles at the moment, and I personally haven’t witnessed any precipitation other than brief drizzle since late March). And its return would rightfully raise some eyebrows, given recent research suggesting that such pressure patterns have indeed been occurring more frequently in recent years.

My current answer: we’re not in Triple R territory quite yet, but we’re getting close. We have certainly witnessed the return of resilient ridging near California, but I don’t think we’ve yet reached the “ridiculous” level of multi-month persistence that occurred during the height of the recent California drought. Should present conditions persist through January, and if seasonal precipitation has not started to recover from its early deficit by that time, I may have to revise that answer.

Latest forecast: still little to no rain over the next 2+ weeks over most of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The good news: wet conditions last winter did help to top up reservoirs in the northern part of the state–meaning that the state’s overall water supply situation looks okay even if very dry conditions persist for the rest of winter. Last winter’s lowland flooding did help to modestly recharge shallow groundwater aquifers in the north, which has (temporarily) stemmed the long-term loss of capacity in these regions.

The not-so-good news: parts of Southern California that depend exclusively on local water supplies (such as much of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties) never really recovered from the last drought, and these regions remain quite susceptible to the impacts of drought re-intensification. And even further north, forested regions remain quite stressed as a result from the previous multi-year drought, and tree mortality in the Sierra Nevada remains far above historically observed levels.

 

Unfortunately, 2+ weeks of unusually dry conditions still probable

Persistent ridging is *still* in the forecast for the next 1-2+ weeks.

I wish I had better news regarding the forecast, but at there moment there’s still no real sign of rain returning to California in the coming days. Occasional light precipitation is possible across the north, but conditions will likely be nearly/totally dry across the southern half of the state for the foreseeable future. There has been–and remains–strong, multi-model agreement that West Coast ridging will persist for at least 1-2 more weeks. It has been remarkable to see day after day of numerical model forecasts depicting near-zero 16-day precipitation accumulations during what is normally the heart of the rainy season, and today’s runs (unfortunately) are no exception. The “Warm West/Cool East” pattern discussed in the previous post is still quite prominent over North America. The present West Coast dryness is largely consistent with seasonal model predictions for this winter, and those same models presently suggest that the present pattern is likely to persist for much of the California rainy season.

All of this is to say: it’s still too early to say whether we’re headed into a new drought, though there are some compelling signs that we may be (especially in Southern California). And even in a dry year, California can still experience big storms and very wet months. But at this point, it probably makes sense to start thinking about the possibility of yet another big swing in California–from drought, to flood, and then (perhaps) back again.

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  • BlackCat
    • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

      Bring it

    • Tangocity

      What does it say? Font is too small for me.

      • BlackCat

        Clicking on the image is a larger size

        • Tangocity

          So 5 inches of rain for parts of SoCal coast?

          • BlackCat

            That is possible

          • Tangocity

            Yeah – probably in the coastal ranges.

          • matthew

            That graphic is for rainfall rate not accumulated precipitation. And it is in mm.

            See Bob G’s accumulated precip graphic just below.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Sock it to me, ummm, I mean US!

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Even some sports stars love the weather. It appears to affect our wives/spouses the same way

    https://sports.yahoo.com/mike-trouts-obsession-bomb-cyclone-hot-water-fiancee-182734683.html

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      That story should make a smile on Jose/Cap’n/Muzak face.

      • Pfirman

        Only one them can read.

  • Idaho Native

    First wave of moisture completely missed Marin and apparently SF too. .09″ at my house here. Incredible to see the East Bay totals with so little in the North Bay and City

  • Atmospheric_River
  • RunningSprings6250

    The cactus is writing for NWS SD!!! We’re going to need to trade the cactus in for his red headed friend…..

    “The system will begin to move away from the area Tuesday night-Wednesday. However, sufficient moisture will linger to support some convective shower activity before drier air moves in by Thursday. And that will be the end of the show as it looks as though the upper level ridge will re-establish itself over the area behind the storm. So we could be waiting awhile for the next one. One of those years!”

    • Freddy66

      I’m sure they look at future model forecasts like we all do but it’s way to early to mention the expected pattern change mid- month. Edit…if it does happen

      • RunningSprings6250

        They are way jaded IMO…don’t blame ‘em one bit.

        • Freddy66

          I think Oxnard is worse

          • RunningSprings6250

            Oxnard: Ventura’s afterbirth!

          • Pfirman

            Please, it’s dinnertime.

          • RunningSprings6250

            A visual then, perhaps? ?????

      • AlTahoe

        Yeah NWS rarely mentions anything past the 5 – 7 day mark.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Yep, our local NWS page today only goes out 7 days.

    • BlackCat
  • BlackCat
    • RunningSprings6250

      Another rate increase, yay….

      (Please don’t take this the wrong way….I mean SCE will yet again pass on the cost of THEIR negligence to the customer)

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I can’t seem to find this story on Los Angeles TV station websites for some reason. It doesn’t seem right to me that a Seattle station only has this story, but our local media does not, unless I missed it somewhere.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Another warm/ dry day in our year without winter. But everything looks quite promising for next week.
    77/ 56

    • 961ElNino

      Enjoy the one storm…Ridge city, ridge ridge city (after).

      • Pfirman

        Write the song. You’ve got the intro.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        I’m just trying to avoid irrigating very dry trees. This upcoming storm should help immensely.

  • This forecast can’t hurt in a Nina year. And look at that December. LOL
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d667bb9d027c1ae56f7fe7b84e9f3f5fd70aabe75b0b0c0ef7c6b5c1bb2b0a88.gif

    • Dry Bones

      There are no stupid questions, only stupid people. So can someone briefly edumacate me on how to read this two and a half axis chart?

      • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hovm%C3%B6ller_diagram
        The blue to purple colors show a + or – wind anomalies at 850hPa (about 5000 ft) These are measured at the EQ from 5N to 5S.
        It is ‘normal’ for winds to blow along the EQ from east to west. Wind direction is forecast to blow strongly east to west from about 150W to Borneo. In a Nina year this reinforces the base state in a Nino year this forecast would undermine the base state.In December winds were slack or blowing slightly east which would be a positive anomaly (color bar). In a Nina this is not good for the base state in a Nino it would be. It’s taken me at least three years to begin to grasp this. This is a rolling time graph of wind anomalies.

        • Dry Bones

          Wow. That is some complex data visualization. Thank you.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Looking beyond next Tuesday’s storm, the storm behind it out in Fantasyland looks much colder, more of a typical GOA system if it were to verify. Right now long range ensembles look the best they have for the whole state so far this season. We all know why they call it “Fantasyland” so be careful. LOL.

    • SoCalWXwatcher
      • matthew

        Fantasyland? I thought that was in Vegas.

        • Idaho Native

          Can anyone explain why in fantasy land the models show a cold GOA type storm but the NOAA discussions all portend dry ridge in the long run?

          • RunningSprings6250

            As noted below, to avoid putting their foot in their mouth every other model run, they don’t discuss beyond 5-7 days on a regular basis except to note potential long term pattern changes or anything that is highly unusual or with a higher probability of actually occuring.

          • matthew

            Anything past five days gets progressively less reliable. The NWS looks at multiple models and applies some good old fashioned human judgement.

          • Cap’n

            They live in reality land, trying to steer clear of both dreamland and nightmare land, two places we vacillate between every six hours here. Though I guess you could make the argument that reality land many times actually is nightmare land.

          • BP (Ventura)

            Should of seen it this morning Cap’n, super clean, chest high, with a fast approaching 6.5′ tide, good times. Watched all the “storm” activity move north out in the channel up into Santa Barbara, where I heard like 78 drops fell from the sky! 10 months 13 days with not a drop in vta, not that I’m counting…

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            To bad no sandbars to speak of right now…that’ll change soon!

          • Cap’n

            Ever see Bobby Martinez round those parts? I like that dude.

          • BP (Ventura)

            Haven’t seen him in a while, but yeah, he used to surf Ventura frequently. Great guy and surfer!

          • Westside

            comment of the day. lmao

          • PRCountyNative

            Models aren’t forecasts. Models aren’t consistent. Different models often conflict with one another. Human meteorologists writing actual forecasts give the flawed machine output proper weight.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That is about 6 miles west of me.

      • matt

        Thats where most of my extended family and my crazy ex girlfriend lives.

        • alanstorm

          Crazy ex-girlfriends are often underrated

      • Westside

        Im already there shredding all that powder!

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    As an Angel fan my whole life I can relate to my favorite player. When it’s raining I act just like Mike as my gf can attest…….lol.

    Mike Trout won’t stop bothering his new wife with alerts about the recent snow storm.

    “Mike Trout has at least two great passions in life. One of them is baseball, but when it’s winter and baseball isn’t in season, then it’s the perfect occasion for the other — following the weather.

    Trout’s unusual obsession is far from news. Tweets from him about the weather are not uncommon, he’s the unofficial Angel Stadium weatherman, he owns his own weather balloon and he once even appeared on The Weather Channel to provide on-the-ground storm updates in New Jersey.”

    http://m.mlb.com/cutfour/2018/01/04/264282466/mike-trout-wont-stop-bothering-his-wife-about-weather-alerts?partnerId=sf82840632&sf82840632=1

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I wonder if he knows about this blog by any chance.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        I sent him the WW blog address on his FB but doubt if he got it.

        • inclinejj

          Try sending it to him on Twitter. I’m sure he’s on .

    • Cap’n

      Thanks for sharing this, I never knew he was a fellow weather fanatic. About 6 years ago or so I was down in So Cal and took my wife (at the time my girlfriend) and her friend to an Angel game. They were playing Detroit and Verlander was pitching. On the drive down from Redondo Beach to Anaheim I was telling them, “This is going to be a real pitchers duel, a low scoring affair. We can leave early if you guys are bored…,” similar to a weather follower telling someone it’s positively going to rain as all the models and AFD’s are saying it will. Wouldn’t you know it, Trout hit the first pitch of the game that that Slime ball Verlander threw over the left field wall. The Angels ended up knocking him out of the game in the 3rd or 4th inning. It was NOT a pitcher’s duel. The icing on the cake was that Trout robbed Prince tubby boy Fielder of a homer in dead center to record the last out of the game. I’ve yet to check if that has ever happened? A person leading off the game with a homer (first pitch) and then ending the game by stealing one. He is one special player.

      The moral of the story: Trout will be playing for the Yankees and ditching the debacle that is the Anaheim Los Angeles Angels of California USA and even with all the Probabilities and Predictions in front of us, we never know how the hell it will all turn out.

      Mota and Gubby saw everything.

      • inclinejj

        I told my wife if the Angels play the Giants in the World Series I’ll buy a Rally Monkey. It’s in my office, still.

        Trout has tormented the A’s offensively and defensively. One of the best all around players in Baseball. Him and Cespedes.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        If the Angels can make the playoffs this year I think he’ll stay. Mgr lasagna Mike has been a menace and an obstacle since winning the WS in 2002. We’ll see how they can fit Shohei Ohtani into the lineup. They have a much better team now and they will make the playoffs this year……..but I also thought we would have a wetter winter.

        • Cap’n

          Lasagna Mike, I like you El Monte. I could write a blogsworth of rants about that Ziti buffet lover and the direction the Angels have taken. But I’m in it for the long haul, I’m perfectly ready for them to disappoint over the next decade, it will make it all the sweeter for if/when they ever excel again. I’m not as optimistic about their immediate future and I’d love to make a friendly wager about Mr. Trout’s departure come time. Speaking of Jersey, BA posted pics today, they got some good snow totals.

          • Pfirman

            You remind me that the sports fan is really close to the weather fan when it comes to making the best of a bad hand.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            I get very active on the local blogs during the season and surprisingly, I get a lot of “Up Votes” for my diatribes against lasagna Mike. I may take it easy on him this yr IF they jump out of the gate with a winning record…..we’ll see.

          • Cap’n

            I was a regular on HaloHeaven and the MLB page forum; had to eliminate myself. The day Soth didn’t pinch run for Morales in that huge mid-season series in Arlington, I made my decision to just breath and accept.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            You’re a better man than me Cap’n. One of my many bad traits is holding a grudge. When lasagna traded Mike Napoli in his prime because of his defensive failings, it was on.

            Was happy to see Napoli kick halo a** whenever he played against them after that trade, no matter the team he was playing for.

          • Cap’n

            Lasagna loved Mathis. How’d that work out for you Mike?

      • VK (Sacramento)

        Slime ball Verlander, Trout will be playing for the Yankees

        From a Yankees fan, Love ya Cap’n

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    More evidence of how Santa Rosa fire started:

    “Damaged PG&E equipment near Wine Country fires’ origins, new reports show”
    http://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/Damaged-PG-E-equipment-near-Wine-Country-fires-12471867.php

    • alanstorm

      I met the guy who saw the Redwood Fire start on his property from a downed power line & trees.
      He was at the Ukiah COOP with his Prius stuffed with belongings.
      Hard to say in some cases weather it was negligence on PGE for not cutting overgrown branches or it was an “act of God” extreme weather event blowing trees down.
      A girl I know who got out of Redwood Valley that night said big Oak trees were blowing down from those winds

      • Pfirman

        Weird you stipulate his vehicle. What if he had been driving a Focus, or a BMW?

        • alanstorm

          Wierd how?
          It’s the details of a story that stimulate the mental picture in the readers mind.
          “I noticed he had old, faded, black & white photos of what I presumed was his mother, sitting atop hastily packed clothing stacked on the front seat of his grey Prius…”
          That’s how I surmised he was an evacuee & struck up a conversation from the window of my ash covered van.

          Not sure what youre getting at. I dont have any beefs with Prius drivers

          • Pfirman

            Ok. In Texas they run them over like armadillos. I am not a Prius driver, for what it’s worth.

          • alanstorm

            I’d drive ’71 Chargers if I could, but their not good for carrying chainsaws

          • Pfirman

            Or passing gas stations.

        • Thunderstorm

          Look in the mirror do you like what you see?

      • Yolo Hoe

        Coincidentally was in Kenwood today visiting a dear friend who lost everything except the most important things (the lives of he and his family) — completely, utterly intense — the feature that is burned (truly no pun intended) forever into their minds is the ferocity of the wind that terrible night

        • alanstorm

          Nuns Fire.
          Glen Ellen, Sanoma Co.
          Such a beautiful area, a shame to see such destruction.

          Was in Redwood Valley a few days ago. What a mess!
          Some canyons areas look like they had burned hotter then other areas.
          Hazmat people everywhere, cordoned-off piles of twisted debris.
          And that smell still in the air.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I’m not defending SCE, but all the local news outlets were blaming them for the Creek Fire until they realized something:

      The owner of a small ranch on Little Tujunga Canyon Road said she was awakened early Dec. 5 by a panicked call from her mother, who said sparks were coming off the steel pylon as a line came loose and “was smacking the hill.”

      Looking outside, Gail Thackray said, she saw much the same scene: “There was fire concentrated over there and sparks coming off the pylon…. It spread each direction.” She raced out of their ranch with her mother and daughter, driving out through fire.

      The power line Thackray identified is owned by the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power. . The utility last week said it believed its equipment had been cleared of involvement in the Thomas and Creek fires. But in its Tuesday statement, the utility said it “believes the investigations now include the possible role of its facilities.”

      http://beta.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-fire-cause-creek-fire-20171213-story.html

  • Cap’n

    It’s 00Z time, deep breath everyone, take your places, and Go!

    • matthew

      One and done. Or maybe it’s 1.5 and done.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        I’ll take it! That’s 1.45″ more than I’ve received TOTAL over the last 8 months………dilly dilly.

      • Cap’n

        Getting some rain just starting over here at the moment.

        • RunningSprings6250

          It smells like rain here – weird what 87% RH will do after being a fraction of that for so long….

          • Cap’n

            Next week looking good for you Ian! Hopefully all of us.

    • Freddy66

      Pattern change looks to be still in play as long as that high near Hawaii stays where it is

    • SloTruckeeJohn

      We all need to just chill a bit and stay in the moment. The highs bring deep lows. Slow and steady is a good way to go.

      • Cap’n

        I’m enjoying some steady rain falling now. Two nights in a row, who woulda thunk it.

    • janky

      I guess you broke your streak and you’re checking GFS op runs again?

      • Cap’n

        Full on bender just brewed a pot of coffee to stay up for the 0Sixer

  • Pfirman

    For us lower Sac Valley people.

    http://marie-theresebrown.com/workszoom/1867535

  • alanstorm

    0z not “one & done” with zonal storm door parade opening around the 15th for Norcal & THIS for the rest on the 19th
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97291bc842b0d989cf4068404f329af2c92110e9b701a579285e98d28b3cc444.gif

    • matthew

      If you are referring to my comment… I was only looking at stuff in the 10 day window.

      • alanstorm

        Ok. Not referring to you then.
        Other one & done comments out there however & a few muttered under my breath myself recently!

    • Freddy66

      Looks like another one following that one

      • alanstorm

        It’s looking increasingly like we may get bailed-out of this dire situation.
        Money in the bank!
        Just keep ’em coming till May.
        We need a snowpack PRONTO

  • RunningSprings6250

    Does this mean it’s OFFICIAL?!

    …First Significant Pacific Storm Arrives Early Next Week…

    https://youtu.be/MAK2tKVmAFs

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      If you ask me, this thing is starting to slide in the bank. The ensembles or “fantasyland” as some of us call them haven’t looked this good since we were looking at the October shift back in ’16… Going out on a limb here with that statement, but I mean it.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        This could be great

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          The 00Z is a carbon copy of the 18Z and 12Z. Looks great

          • alanstorm

            Grate!

      • Yolo Hoe

        Yeah!!!

  • Unbiased Observer

    Finally used my season’s pass at Mammoth for the first today. Rained some this morn with a dusting higher up. Not much snow at all in town. All in all though not too shabby on the mountain. Definitely better than I expected all things considered.

    • SacWx

      If that long range pattern change on the GFS can verify – there will be some good runs to be had by the end of the month. I have gone other places this winter but yet to go the Sierra.

  • K?ros
  • Bob G (Gustine)

    The 00Z looks just like the 18Z and 12Z through fantasyland. This would be awesome if it verifies. Sure would be a boon to the sierra snowpack

    • alanstorm

      It’s amazing how instantly I’m in a better mood.
      The day it actually verifies, we’ll throw a party.
      “Well have ourselves a little barbeque in the yard, they’ll see the flames for miles, we’ll dance around it like…….”

      • Freddy66

        So….I would assume Daniel will have a new update around the 15th of January if this thing doesn’t fly off the rails

        • alanstorm

          Probably tap-tapping away at as we speak.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          I bet he will. Daniel doesnt like to comment on fantasyland forecasts. Hecwaits till it verifies in the near term

          • Dan the Weatherman

            He will probably post an update this weekend if everything is still looking promising by then.

      • Freddy66

        We are a unique breed us weather nuts. Some people just don’t get it

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Definately. Some people are clueless. I teluctantly had to lecture and old friend once

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Me too. Much better.mood

      • nunbub

        So we’ll have a bbq…in the rain? bring it!

        • alanstorm

          Oh, that’s right.
          Diesel & roadflares then

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      Bastardi is saying the same thing. He is calling for a thaw in the east and some troughing in the west. This makes me quite happy!

  • Cap’n

    Surprised by the steady rain here on the west side the past few hours, another .2″ in the gauge, now at .5″ since last night. One spritz at a time we shall uprise.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b98ab10c34a59a1c3fc4c872f0a430296b6e23bca4a659075d6ed5239228765.png

    • alanstorm

      Reporting wind & light rain here, Sir.

    • Just drove all over bay area past several hours and to say scattered showers is an understatement, just a generally ultra moist atmosphere with H2O crashing out of it all over town, all quite lovely until I drove by the Oakland waste treatment plant on the way back from SF – the steamy heavy atmosphere carrying the scent of one billion farts into the cabin of my car. As a side effect of all this moisture it would seem the inversion borne pollutants that were still ugly this morning have finally been given the much needed mixing shove to leave us be.

  • AntiochWx

    The one thing we have going for us, is we are finally getting away from the dreaded -EPO. This should allow for more GOA lows, and keep ridges more transient. +EPO generally favor a more zonal pacific fetch, rather than pacific blockiness, the main problem going forward over the next few weeks will be battling the unfavorable PNA.

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Let’s hope so. The Eastern U.S. needs a break from this Arctic outbreak as much as we needed a break from this dry warm pattern we’ve been stuck in for months.

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    We will have our West Coast version of “bomb cyclone” next week. Storm’s going to be huge. Bigly big. Get your sandbags ready, California. Will the Fake Weather Channel report this? We’ll see.

  • AntiochWx

    For anyone curious about the EPO. an -EPO is basically a terrible pattern for west coast moisture, plus paired with a weak STJ, you get the results we saw in December. It’s a warm west cold east dipole pattern. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44be1e04a261f0953aa672307a7d9eb00e04b8de3f7547b75567c29c3c317ed9.png

    • Fck that thing, fck it with an icy snow covered stick. Btw fck THIS thing:
      http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-offshore-drilling-20180104-story.html
      https://m.imgur.com/gallery/h7NSV7R

      • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

        Yeah, let’s drill baby drill like there’s no tomorrow. More Hell weather for California. and oil spills. Donut Hole Lorde will be pleased.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Lets take ALL the fossil fuels out of the ground, burn it and put ALL carbon in the atmosphere! YOLO!

      • 961ElNino

        This is not a political site…please

        • Fairweathercactus

          We need to drill. What good is that oil doing in the ground when we could use it? Whittier is full of oil but the courts will not let us drill near the fault line 🙁

          • cthenn

            Yeah, no need to concern ourselves with actually CHANGING our habits…just drill and take and consume! Use it up, burn it up! Suck the earth dry of natural resources, that seems like a totally sustainable plan for the future. SMH, do you bring anything worthwhile to this blog, you seem to revel in dry forecasts and “strong ridges”. I guess someone has to be the resident troll.

    • thlnk3r

      -QBO and Weak La Nina as well. Thanks for pointing these items out. I rarely see anyone discussing teleconnections.

  • Not Safe For Weathernerds – this material is hard core and graphic.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1fc995a83e0eeaf5fba8f6a6aab3a03579f7697337f76e9914104ea8f7b22bb.gif

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i love the 06z GFS YAY

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i all so noted the 06Z is trending tusday wed storm a little stronger and a little colder has well

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Only .35″ of rain so far, and it’s 48. Warm for January 5.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Developing North Pacific & west coast pattern change has not lost any ground in the models and in fact is pushing closer with each run. Now only a more couple runs or so & we start to see what week 3 is looking like. Stay tuned!

  • Taz & Storm Master
    • Jim (Watsonville)

      I believe Steve Paulson showed higher totals this morning…maybe he’ll chime in…the more the better !!!

  • weathergeek100

    !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!???????

    http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?textField1=32.72&textField2=-117.16#.Wk-LX2IxWEc

  • AlTahoe

    The GOA low setting up after our brief ridge looks very impressive on both the Euro and Gfs. Shows classic cold fronts that dump between 1-3′ of snow with tons of post frontal action. January is going to go out with a bang! Here is the final frame from the 06z just for fun. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d3012f531ad44fa97a5ed1105cb120383862ef5d98bdabedf50fb5f871db7c82.png

    • Cap’n

      Good trends for sure. And even the system tonight and the wetter one for next week are showing potential to be somewhat colder, with snow levels maybe not astronomically high, we’ll see. Got .5″ of rain here last night, January total .8″.

      • AlTahoe

        We didn’t pick up any more rain last night but tonight’s impulse looks a little bit juicer than originally forecast. If Heavenly can get 2-5″ out of it I might have to go up tomorrow.

    • alanstorm

      Storm door opening party now moved up to 16th

      Looks like a barrage.

      Snow people will have a snowgasm

      • Yolo Hoe

        Or as Deep Purple would wail back in the day…….Stormbringer!!!!

        • alanstorm

          A bit before my time…but
          Hiway Star was a big set closer when I was in cover bands.
          Great song!

    • Yolo Hoe

      Hello Mr Storm King

    • Taz & Storm Master

      and be for that storm we may get a cold snap and even some colder storms has well

    • Westside

      Crosses fingers and toes

  • alanstorm

    Another round of record sub-zero torture for the upper Midwest.

    My best buddy moved to Chicago from Santa Cruz years ago because his wife got a cushy university job.

    He was a surfer & a …..surfer.
    Wonder how he likes it now

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66b3bcf1c2c48564601bf7acf6620504a8e162128394c6162283afd59bcb03e6.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      Nice waves on Lake Michigan, I suppose — though not so great when the spray freezes instantly — was coincidentally on a call this morning with some folks from U Chicago — they said it was COLD

      • alanstorm

        Thats a WW coincidence for sure, similar to a Festivus Miracle.
        She’s a PHD there, Woman’s Studies, he’s a stay at home Dad, guitar playing & surfing now only in his dreams

        Wind chill today for Chicago at -20

        • Thor

          perhaps he just needs a wet suit…

    • Dave Martin

      Funny. I have an opposite story that worked out for me. I kissed Argonne goodbye in 2008, moved back to my home surf-town, and bought in 2011. Moral of the story–follow what is most important to you.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Congrats on that — great approach to life — what was research area at Argonne?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Taz & Storm Master

      YAY for the W BOOO and heh heh heh for the E coast they had there fun now its are turn and i sure they would not mind the warmer tempers has well

      • RunningSprings6250

        They’ll appreciate all the tempers they can muster up.

        • K?ros

          yes and while we all appreciate the wet dreams of fantasyland we mustn’t forget to temper our expectations

          • RunningSprings6250

            The WWW suicide hotline will be ringin’ off the hook…..

      • Drought Monitor

        Now Its our turn to get the cold tempers

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      sure nice to see the models continuing to trend for a more progressive pattern for the West Coast. I talked with a co-worker in the Portland area and he was commenting how bad the snow coverage was for their resorts as well.

    • CHeden

      Good stuff.
      One thing to note is low level action (i.e. moisture) doesn’t show up very well. By rights, there should be additional circulations under/within that trough, IMHO.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        If I had made it into a gif, it would show you that is the case. Quite something around the parent low…

  • WXPhotographer

    Current Storm over Central CA. is getting shredded.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    12z takes the M/T storm further south and lets off a bit on the Thomas Burn area which is a good thing… as much as I want the rain. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/319351912aabc30e2ab8bd47959597ffe7b85c62d87cac25d25cd9a935f5020a.gif

  • CHeden

    ATTM, decoupled low pressure is over/off the Oregon coast and will continue to meander further up the coast. The warmer surface low that brought yesterday’s slug of fog and drizzle is now hovering over the NW coast, while a cooler upper air circulation can be seen west of Cape Mendocino with what looks like a weak surface front out ahead of it (image 1). Later today, the cool pool/trough will come come close enough to the NorCal interior to possibly spark up some convection (per GFS soundings), although the forecasts aren’t mentioning it (image 2). Plus, as the initial cool air push comes off the Trinities, can’t rule out a brief convergence line setting up in the Redding area.
    Looking southwest well west of Central Baja, another Rex-low is churning where this most recent CoL formed before ejecting NNE, and this low will eventually follow a similar track once it starts to eject (along with the associated ridge that will be over us on Sunday).
    To the west, by late Sunday, a decent CF and associated low off the far NW coast will pick up the northward-tracking juicy remains of the SE low, with the two air masses eventually phasing somewhere off the California coast and producing a rapidly developing closed low (image 3). Even though only 48-72 hrs out, the GFS is still having a hard time pinpointing exactly where the new low will close off, how deep it will get, and where it will track afterwards. One thing is for sure though, there should be abundant moisture getting flung northward to support a decent cyclogenesis event (but hardly a “bomb”), with the main questions being how much cold air can get wrapped into this thing before it hits the coast and the precise timing of the expected convergence/phasing. ATTM, it looks like the CF front and cyclonic circulation will bring widespread precip to all of California (eventually), with snow mostly confined to the highest elevations early until cooler air works in along with and in back of the departing front on Wed/Thurs.
    Once this last CoL/Rex low pushes east by next Friday, the GFS and other models have been consistent in depicting an evolving Rossby wave pattern over the entire Pacific, which will in turn will push a series of lows and associated fronts towards and over the west coast. ATTM, timing and strength of individual lows are difficult, but the the next system around the 15/16th looks to have the possibility of developing into a bona-fide GoA frontal passage along winds, rain and snow in copious amounts. After that, there are more powerful storms in the wings, but way to far out for anything definitive other than the storm door looks like it may open up (at least for a while).

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d54d38eb01385b9277ae4b99ffbd60837aa6d58c8c7f8bd1ae29900fd311eeef.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/800171f44c57c91ff963ed0e17bf4010a48c2a0e0f9e9a4a4fc781c314ac57de.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cacd758a3af6fe6082b5d026ee5859407d7b548503aba3e2462f37cbc3494381.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5106411ba34b9271091bbef656b0003022f0a023ad61a995e2c723950316e9be.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/91c10c1b68d4baab9dd1c16715f2b29883294971424140f686df959c07806880.gif

    • tomocean

      I am curious. Is the only difference between cyclogenesis and bombogenesis the speed and depth of low pressure development?

      • CHeden

        You are correct. A “Bomb” is defined as a low that deepens >24mb in 24hrs….while a more pedestrian cyclogenesis event may take much longer to develop and not be as deep.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Absolutely fantastic visually aided narrative — you have the ability to make a neophyte like me think I almost understand ‘weather’ — thanks as always for taking the time to lay this stuff out so clearly!!!

      • CHeden

        Much appreciated fer the feedback and kind words!
        As long as we all get a chance to learn, then it’s worth the effort.

    • jstrahl

      Thanks again for another excellent presentation!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Damn good analysis, looking forward to it all. Been having a grand time watching this in the models all unfold.

      • CHeden

        Thanks!
        You (and many other poster’s ) have been providing some terrific data and obs as well, and I’m proud to be just another member of the crowd chipping in with his/her two-cents worth.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I as well & cheers to that my friend.
          Edit: I believe us providers are doing a great job as well with explanation to the public, a key player in getting the right wording around town.

  • CHeden

    First light VIS satellite is showing a tight little circulation well west of San Francisco. Some bumpiness is starting to show up over the North Bay, where scattered showers are happening. Will be tracking this feature for the next few hours for sure to see if/where it comes inland.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a33cdeb65aa291938ae2679b6d739cd6580161cfbe6acbc39f98097e832ca96b.jpg

  • cthenn

    Neat sunrise today over Mt. Diablo, with the low clouds over the peaks. Sorry for the crappy phone quality!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5c3bbec509b4907da8e2a644164800dbbfede3b79550406e11715499d771ed98.jpg

  • RunningSprings6250

    Mmmm tasty, you know it’s a good run when the Bakersfield donut hole is PURPLE and not blue, green or WHITE.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d44d14f7735f49c44bcd67be76ee227f63ec3410392dc8d742bfa45470ed7fc.jpg

    • Al (VictorValley)

      i also like how the high desert rain totals are also trending upward into the inch territory as all three ingredients needed for strong spillover from the San Gabriels are coming together (deep moisture, strong dynamics (lifting), and flavorable wind direction in the 800-600MB layer)

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    And just where does this thing think it’s going?! : ^ o

    Hee Hee –

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d1a269c99c3c81bd8b14e9067665723acc2fb35e6b72262dce536f35baed908.jpg

    • CHeden

      It’s not going anywhere for the time being. Eventually it will lift north into the advancing CF, then phase with northern energy off the west coast. But, exactly where is still up in the air (pun intended-LoL).

  • thebigweasel

    Hmm. South-facing slopes are going to get smacked hard.

    Cool!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Orographics will be a big player with this one. The same transverse ranges that block moisture from the NW will be wringing out lots of rain from this subtropical tap from the SW.

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Commute between SB and Ventura is going to be messy.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Long range 12z GFS Fantasyland is sure singing a sweet siren song of very cold GOA storms dropping down into CA. There’s good ensemble support for this right now, so hopefully we’re not being trolled. We need this.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      The GFS has been surprisingly accurate this season if you think about it in the Long Range. It forecasted the present CoL in FAntasyland, it forecasted the inside slider on 12/21. It forecasted the Death ridge in December too all in LR. I’m encouraged….I was also watching KCRA TV Ch. 3 meteoroglogist Mark Finan about a week ago commented on the whopping .13inch of rain Sac got in December. He said the last time that happened was in 1999 and the forthcoming Jan/Feb were huge rain/snow producers and got us to a great season. Hopefully that will be the trend this year. Dirk Virdoran has also been commenting on the LR prospects for Jan looking good, something they usually stay away from.

      • Fairweathercactus

        The GFS is having a year to remember.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Yep, the algorithms are learning from recent years and being improved — will get even better going forward — imagine if improved data collection was implemented in the Pacific — machine learning on steroids

        At the same time, interesting to note how unimproved CFSv2 continues to be

    • thlnk3r

      Obliterating unprecedented record-shattering GOA LOW possibly sets eyes on the West Coast!!1 What happens next will surprise you ……..

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b9d388ce4d01f7fa0430074cb42e14aedde3b974ed57753ba6595f6a5ed1c2f.png

      • palmsprings

        CLICKBAIT!

      • Freddy66

        That one on the 19th is a whopper

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Thanks for posting the chart without requiring me to click “Next” about 15 times to get past all the ads. 😉

    • gray whale

      somebody better tie us all to the mast….

  • CHeden

    LP offshore San Francisco is tracking pretty much west ATTM. To the south, a weak ridge/WF is pushing north, which should deflect the offshore low’s track slightly to the NE. Am looking at landfall later this afternoon somewhere around Pt. Arena by my estimate. Precip with this feature looks more spotty and “squall-like” where highly variable amounts of precip can fall over a short distance.
    Also, noting (as mentioned in my early morning update) some signs of a developing convergence line NW of Redding. In addition, there appear to be several smaller squall lines setting up over the coastal mountains. I’m a bit surprised to see the CL forming so early given it’s only 10 a.m., so any afternoon heating will de-stabilize things even further.
    Off to Redding in an hour, and will post any pics if anything comes out of this.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cb70cea41bf1454c6f12c03ee8dd69b94afd6bec86e1dabe4b6e6f237fcce03.jpg

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    Only thing I need now is something to wipe out the mosquito activity going on here lately. It was that humid.

    • Those bloodsucking b@$tards have been absent from NorCal as of late. I think I’ve seen 1 over the past two months.

      • alanstorm

        This spring/summer was brutal, friggin Luftwaffe over Britain.
        Then in Aug, they all but disappeared rather quickly.
        Record dry heat did the trick

        • matthew

          Is there an echo in here?

          • alanstorm

            Another WW coincidence of simultaneous posting

          • matthew

            Willits – Truckee teleconnection.

          • alanstorm

            Small world.
            I’ve done some tree carvings in that Tahoe/Dinner subdivision

          • A good echo, I didn’t draw the connection with the record dry heat frying them, I figured it was cold as usual that zapped them but this year there wasn’t really any cold, so, cool at least they are gone.

    • TahoeCard

      Liking the looks of the Sierra forecast for next 2 weeks. All cross our fingers. Anybody have a good answer why the mosquito season was not bad in the Sierra last summer? With all the water we had I was expecting a horrible season and it was not that bad. Was it because of the all the fast moving water? I know they need rather stable pockets of water.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        I noticed it too. Even in the cascades where there were areas that held standing water for months the mosquitos never really got as bad as years past. Meat bees too.

        • alanstorm

          The Meat Bees were OFF THE CHARTS last year.
          The record rains really unleashed the insects.

          Either that, or there was a huge nest nearby.

          Weren’t the Meat Bees a metal band from the 80’s?

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Not in Lassen park where they had been absolutely brutal in the fall in recent years.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            2 years ago they were so bad that my crew invested in those electrified tennis rackets just to be able to eat lunch. Last year they were non existent.

          • alanstorm

            Wierd cycles.
            Of course entirely different locations.
            Maybe they moved my way once we finally got a rainy winter.
            Everyone here near the coast complained about yellow jackets.
            Critters exploded this summer as well.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Yeah, I have no idea. I just know that in my neck of the woods the bee and mosquito response was counter intuitive after all the water we got. We had more wasps than usual in town, but not out in the woods. Go figure.

          • alanstorm

            They’re communists

          • Admode (Susanville)

            They need to be deported.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            And for some reason I killed about 850% more black widows around the house than usual too.

          • YASS I remember the 2 year ago onslaught, it was like El Nino bred them like crazy or something.

      • matthew

        In my particular pocket neighborhood I rarely see any mosquitoes. This spring/summer however we had many more than usual. Once the heat kicked in and everything dried out they were back to a more normal level. So…maybe the heat?

      • gray whale

        possibly more running water, less stagnant.

        edit: indeed, i did not read your comment all the way to the end. i owe you a brewski!

      • AlTahoe

        It was the worst I have experienced in South Lake this summer. Even while pedaling up Oenidas road at the Corral trail I would be covered head to toe. I had to apply industrial strength repellent every single day on any exposed skin.

        • TahoeCard

          Thats what I was expecting. My only guess is that being on the west shore with less flat ground we had faster moving water. Had several “creeks” flowing through he neighborhood all spring. South lake is full of flat areas and meadows. Also, I read that they will lay eggs in moist areas that will lay dormant until waters rise. Those areas were likely swept away with the torrents of water.

        • Charlie B

          It was a bite-fest in Graeagle as well.

      • Thor

        not only stable…but preferred standing water. Trying going to MN sometime in Summer…

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        We had a fair amount of the “visitors” where I am in Truckee. A few times ended up with quite a few bites within just a few hours.

        As Alanstorm mentions below about the yellow jackets….at least they were not at bad as 2016 in the Tahoe area. August/Sept 16 was really bad.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    ECMWF really lights up SoCal with yellow, orange & red for Tuesday’s storm, and shifted the bullseye right over Ian’s house in Running Springs. He must have been doing his rain/snow dance all day yesterday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6989428518c97e8a40ee826514ff5ca6c0bf9a1da780d2a9b58a2e6f9c7292e3.png

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Really nice to be back in california where it’s 80 degrees warmer (technically) then where I was in Michigan. Now I know why I don’t live there https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67cf50bb302ff890a4dd66fffa12310e8ed689ed4fda0ffac96c38b85f95db2d.jpg

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • TahoeCard

      Would do wonders for the snowpack.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Sure would. We really need to build that up.

    • mosedart (SF)

      that is sexy

    • Idaho Native

      RIP Drought Lorde

      • BlackCat

        And fairweather cactus

        • Idaho Native

          He’ll be drowning soon

        • honzik

          Don’t be mad at the cactus.
          He’s just a little out of practice.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        LOL, he is deep inside his mom’s basement figuring out how is going to occupy his time during the rainy periods.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    BAs update. He said not to post the graphics yet probably because he didn’t want to cause too excitement this early out, lol
    http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe

  • Eddie Garcia

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c21b317799d6b655967fd514288c9e901316eed72ca3a7257e5b173402a10bbb.png
    I have seen maybe like 6 GFS model runs like this one and it brings back memories of last Jan… I hope this pattern does take shape.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I posted Brian A’s update below. Worth a read, He said there is model agreement on this pattern change, so it isn’t just the GFS. He says it is still far out but he is as confident as can be with long range forecasts

      • Eddie Garcia

        yep read it… looks good.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Did you get any rain Wednesday? We got about a half inch in Gustine but the storm appeared to be weakening as it moved east

          • Eddie Garcia

            yes, most of it fell on wed night with a total of just slightly below a quarter of an inch which was more than I expected.

    • TahoeCard

      The difference from last Jan. is that these would be more of the GOA type systems and not the atmospheric rivers that played havoc with snow levels. I typically got 6-8′ of rain followed by 3 feet of snow.

      • Eddie Garcia

        yes good point!

  • alanstorm

    4.5″ bullseye on the Soberanes Fire area & 3.5″ on the Thomas Fire area, (black outlines) likely coming all at once on Tuesday.
    SW orographics really in play here
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ba70ed65aa877552ffc2a6f0b7d56fb89fb4947d92783561a9d776115fdb7d1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/260fe1adcd4dfe0d450cbdb50c48e2322fbe4812eaa72d8e37fb042a07ef6bf1.png

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Even though we’re still 3-days out, seems all the ingredients are coming together for a good soaking for us here in SoCal……..finally! This will be my first “greater than 0.02″ rain day since My 7th, when I picked-up 0.83”. Also, maybe a few “boomers” will be mixed in.

    From Oxnard AFD:

    As far as the trough to the southwest, this trough is showing signs of maturing and becoming the main player of the weather pattern for early next week. Infrared satellite imagery shows a baroclinic leaf structure developing this morning and becoming more organized. A subtropical tap can be seen in the water vapor imagery, tapping into the Equatorial Pacific this morning. PoPs will likely be nudged higher for Monday night and Tuesday, and with the moisture axis in place already, the timing will be moved earlier to bring accumulating precipitation in sooner on Monday afternoon or evening. With the divergent pattern aloft and the 500mb cold pocket, isolated thunderstorms will likely be added to the forecast later today.

    • Fairweathercactus

      With the low and surface low so close together Thunderstorms are a good bet.

    • Al (VictorValley)

      Unfortunately, for the burn scars, NWS Oxnard said the other day that rain amounts may well be underdone due to the type of moisture its coming from and flavorable orographics in the south-facing upslope areas. And also unfortunately, if amounts do continue to trend up, there may be a handful of swift water rescues if the public isn’t aware, especially the homeless that stay near the creeks and rivers because it only takes only 25-40mins of rain rates above .5” to turn a calm creek into a raging one.

    • hermit crab

      Of course that includes yours truly 🙂 but I don’t know how to prepare.

  • Obituary:
    Drought Lorde
    November 2017 – January 10th 2018
    Cause of death: Forceful water entry during flooding, failure to read user manual. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c4b7dcdd2ac68412c8e5aea7c5901ededefb9db1f9b9775601e4f28c6ead955.png

    • White Lightning

      Hahaha Dude thanks for keeping me laughing all the way through the dry spell! How about a round of applause for CrashingOut everyone

      • It’s from the Gibbs Amphibian manual, and very real. Also terrifying.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Good call — I second that ???

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Involuntary Enema?

  • So far every day this has gotten more and more juiced and I can’t help but feel the need to uncork a champagne bottle, won’t because that’ll surely jynx it, but SoCal, your cup runneth over! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af8f2640c57fbc4d5e8d92a817eeab1455c9adc3c0458d5c12ce4aa792c1578f.gif

    • matthew

      Celebrate when it is within the 5 (or even 10) day window. The 5 day looks good, but most of what is on that map is out past 10.

      • malnino

        Except that this map is for the next 7 days ..

        • matthew

          Gotcha. I mistook it for the 384h maps posted below. So…party on!

          • malnino

            Haha, all good .. we need all the good news on the precip maps we can get down here!!!

    • Westside

      If it’s jinxed then we jinxed this thing days ago?

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Keep the Champagne on ice. No corks may pop until/unless this verifies!

      • Westside

        Hopefully we can cool the bottles in giant piles of snow!

      • This is the most beautiful thing I have seen this season.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Rusty Rails

    A wonderfully dreary day in Santa Cruz with persistant heavy drizzle to light rain since after sunrise. Feels good.

  • Cap’n

    Trend continues for solid precipitation tonight, and Holy we Cows that Monday-Tuesday storm…

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • BlackCat

      Those clouds are nice and low dense fog to the west of SMX right now

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Copy, but that’s looking north/ne

        • BlackCat

          The Fog is filling in now. I live close to the airport

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Yes it is:)

    • Best part, the fire fighting planes are parked.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Yep. One of the DC-10’s on standby.

        • BlackCat

          Those planes are huge when they land

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Totally got to go in one last summer when I was here. There was that table strapped to the floor and a bike strapped to the wall and that was about it. You totes could have ridden the bike around the cabin.

            https://www.instagram.com/p/BKMIfzIgLwfthccc7SKJsaApmX1Pab6HHw9Exg0/

          • BlackCat

            So empty inside

          • Admode (Susanville)

            They had to install multiple 300 pound lead plates on the floor just behind the cock pit to distribute the weight of having the cabin stripped and to counter the weight of the retardant tank. And it is way farther from me to that American flag than the pic makes it seem.

  • Taz & Storm Master
  • AlTahoe

    Hmm this looks cold enough for lake level snow. I like the colder direction next weeks storm is taking. Hopefully it continues in that direction https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ea55ee0a935b628f821f83f05a30a40ebc7ed9bb91e28fd19d83a19417db22a.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Yeah that dark blue has got me in a frenzy .

      • AlTahoe

        I am thinking that Kirkwood could pull off a pretty good total with this storm.

    • matthew

      “lake level snow”

      Kinda sad that we are now looking at that as an anomaly.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Times have changed very quickly

  • AntiochWx

    I feel very confident about our prospects of rain the entire month, even after the brief ridge following our decent storm at the beginning of the week. Seeing a very strong signal still on a +EPO dipole pattern switch going into the middle and end of the month. The displaced polar vortex around the Hudson has been screwing us most of the winter, causing heights to build to the west. The models have continuously been showing the PV migrating back towards the Baffin Islands, which should allow for heights to build in Quebec. Last month I had an educated guess the PV migration coupled with the pacific high moving to a more favorable location could open the rain doors for the month of January. Enjoy the exciting pattern change!

  • CHeden

    Following up on this morning’s analysis, ridging has progressed northward faster than anticipated, hence the LP we saw this morning offshore San Francisco has been deflected more to the NE. ATTM, the new track takes it over the coast near/just south of Cape Mendocino later this evening with an uptick in showers likely. The low will be tracking along the northern flank of the advancing ridge, which on satellite is looking more and more robust as the day wears on.
    Here’s this morning’s image and the most recent one (1530 PST.) for comparison.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4cb70cea41bf1454c6f12c03ee8dd69b94afd6bec86e1dabe4b6e6f237fcce03.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ad2b82537af3d1a9e14f1ee3904c52b29080ca64ef0087c5ffffe9d78bc11897.jpg

  • honzik

    SCMtns Update: Steady orographic light rain, totaling about 0.4″. Add that to yesterday and the day before that we’ve gotten over 1.1″ of rain. We should get over 4″ in the next 6 days, if what “Barney” says over at the CNRFC verifies.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    looks like we could see some vary low snow levels by around JAN 19-20th

  • matthew

    Light rain just started in the shire. 50F. Just got a trace overnight. Not expecting too much from this round.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Glenshire related question-is a snow removal contract necessary? Moving over that way I am leaning towards shovel and the blower this year and if need be pay for the occasional on call removal.

      • matthew

        Depends on your driveway. Mine is 120+ yards from street to garage door, so yes for me. If it is for a short driveway then last year was really the only year that I would say was a “must”. We do get some 2-3′ overnight dumps on occasion so it depends on your tolerance. If you decide to DIY then you should definitely get a good two-stage blower. I would not count on “on-call” removal – when they get busy you may or may not get plowed.

        • AlTahoe

          Also if you have to throw the snow a decent distance spend the money on a Honda. I have a craftsman which works really well except for when the snow is a soggy mess. My driveway is 45′ wide so the wet snow wont get thrown further than 3-5′ which means I have to do multiple passes. Normal and dry snow it throws it like 75′ and it is awesome. The Honda’s do really well with the wet snow.

          • matthew

            Honda 928 with track drive is the bomb.

          • AlTahoe

            I had no money left after purchasing my first home so I went the Craftsman route as it was $2k cheaper. Once it dies I am going with a Honda for sure.

      • inclinejj

        Do you have a truck and or 4 wheel drive you can put a plow on?

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          truck but no plow, short single driveway. Looks like over half don’t use plow contracts where I am. I could see more in the hills why people would. In TD there was no way around not having one.

          • inclinejj

            Part of Tahoe Donner are higher elevation than Donner Summit. My buddy was on Oslo and got about the same as the summit but less than Sugar Bowl.

  • Shane Ritter

    I can’t express how excited I am about the coming storms! GFS is showing 5-8″ of liquid by the 20th in the Sierra. If we can get 10″ this month, with most as snow, that will help so much!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      The 18z GFS run almost looks like it’s on repeat the last 10-15 frames….could be a very interesting January again this year.

    • Atmospheric_River

      I bet Drought Lorde isn’t excited, though.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • matthew

      I got 6.25″ of rain and 118″ of snow last January. Half that would be great this year.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        13″ here for last January

      • Cap’n

        I love comparing our numbers they really hold consistent to the 30% differential more or less. I think I was at 180″ of snow and around 10 or 12 inches of rain for January, numbers are at home. Bigger difference this year so far, at least for November as those crest huggers brought me a lot of rain. Coming down steady now and temps dropping, 44F.

        • AlTahoe

          Some sprinkles here in Incline Village currently

    • AlTahoe

      Jesus Christ on a jet ski! 25″ of precip for Tahoe city and 19″ for South Lake! Bigger totals than last January. Even 50% of that would be amazing.

    • “Tamarack, California
      U.S. snowfall record for one month: 390 inches (32.5 feet) January 1911”

      Note – this chart has 33.9 inches of H2O on Blue Canyon. So, 34+ feet if temperatures want to jump on that record…

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I really wonder what Freel Peak got, if they could measure there the numbers would have been monstrous

    • Idaho Native

      This looks just like Jan/Feb of last year!!! What an incredible turn of fate.

      • matthew

        His posting IS from last year.

        • Idaho Native

          Oh shit. Missed that

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      And here was the setup back then. AR City. Look how puny that HP near Hawaii is compared to the one we have this year.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95d114eb0128a5cf682b8b84e77190b1a4bb05cc009b42f5b2ad0bee16e94881.png

      • Nathan

        HP took some MJO roids and bulked up this year.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Actually I think it was a 32oz can of La Niña steroids that did it.

    • AlTahoe

      Tahoe city finished the month with 21.3″ of precip so the GFS showing 25″ at 384 hours was pretty spot on.

    • Nathan

      Really? I thought those were kind of scary.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        not when your not threatened by flooding whatsoever

    • VK (Sacramento)

      Missed the cruel joke that this run is on Jan 2017. damn

      • BlackCat

        This was last year

  • inclinejj

    No PHD jhere. just a public school kid from Pacifica. I said when Cap’n is back on the blog weather can commence!

    Also before last monster winter we told him to buy a rain gauge!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      We need to get him a sleying bobblehead rain gauge….

      • inclinejj

        A Rally Monkey rain gauge.

    • Cap’n

      Did you read my list the other day to piss off the weather Gods?

      • inclinejj

        I may have. I’ve been hanging out with the kid over the holiday break. My wife’s working from home till April maybe longer and she needs quiet to work. I work with the radio on, so we’ve been going into the office.

  • BlackCat

    It’s now cloudy in Santa Maria now because of the Marine Layer Fog rolling in/ Really early too.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9cd54039e1d0f0940b3e5cbbe00a40db77f1a72a6b203d8aac9d21afabbda7fc.gif That moist SW low producing that steady, orographic rainfall. The GOES 16 is so great

  • Cap’n

    Temp now at 41F with steady rain, that’d be a nice surprise if the mountains get some accumulating snow tonight.

  • BlackCat

    The Marine layer is already gone and thick Altostratus clouds completely fills the sky.

  • BlackCat
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Not sure if this was posted earlier from BA at OpenSnow.
    https://twitter.com/tahoeweather/status/949379221402542080

    • jstrahl

      A very memorable amazing comeback it was! We didn’t get the huge December storm this time, but November was above average, instead of T, and the rain appears to be starting earlier in January, didn’t do so till the 16th in ’96.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Also nice to avoid the flooding of that winter too.

  • Cap’n

    Good update, and for good weather porn click his link in the post that takes you to last year’s post same time.
    http://www.tahoeweatherblog.com/?m=1

  • BlackCat

    A January Miracle?

    • Taz & Storm Master

      oh no a black cat where all DOOM

      lol just kidding

      • thebigweasel

        I have a dark grey cat. Does that mean my favourite team goes on a losing streak?

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      No, a January, February, and March Tsunami

      • If you were hit with a tsunami Al Gore would take credit for predicting it.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Lmao. He has a jumbo plane so he will be ok

  • Taz & Storm Master

    here what i have for monday night

    Monday NightRain…heavy at times. Lows 42 to 52.

  • hermit crab

    Because we are now warned we might have to evacuate for flooding instead of getting to enjoy the long hoped-for rain, I think we might actually get the rain this time!

    Does anyone know how to prepare for a flood?

    • Admode (Susanville)

      I know of this one dude who built an ark.

      • hermit crab

        I don’t have his expertise:)

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Seriously though, your local fire departments are the way to go. They will have sand bags but may or may not have sand. If you need assistance talk to them and I’m sure they will help you figure something out.

    • Freddy66

      Your local fire department should have sandbags. Perhaps they can guide you to someone who can help

      • hermit crab

        Thank you 🙂

    • RunningSprings6250

      I would ask a neighbor, several neighbors, confirm if you’re actually in a flood path /debris flow area due to the Thomas Fire and ask for assistance from them, if needed…

      • hermit crab

        The map was changed today and the county announced it. Most of Carpinteria is now in the flood/debris zone due to the Thomas fire…

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Number one check with your local fire dept and city/County. They’ll have locations and might be able to help with filling/placement due to disability.

      • hermit crab

        I wish it weren’t the weekend or I would call every number I could think of! 🙂 thank you for this info. I will keep my eye on the county website.

    • Chrissy (Long Beach)

      Crab, Home Depot sometimes sells flood barriers that are filled with gel and expand when wet. Not sure where you are or what the potential flow might be like, but these can work really well. More expensive than the free sandbags, but you just lay them down and get them wet.

      Like these: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0085S1VCK/ref=asc_df_B0085S1VCK5326513/?tag=hyprod-20&creative=394997&creativeASIN=B0085S1VCK&linkCode=df0&hvadid=198100289173&hvpos=1o2&hvnetw=g&hvrand=7948656635865229794&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=9031097&hvtargid=pla-318883468939

      • hermit crab

        Thank you I have never heard of these!

      • hermit crab

        Really cool!

    • Thunderstorm

      If the air starts to smell like chocolate then there is a lot of dirt on the move. More then you can direct. Mud collects in the canyons in dams and gravity does the rest.

      • hermit crab

        Terrifying 🙁

    • Apollo

      If you have burnt hills above your home not only mud and water you’ll also have timber and rocks or big boulders involved with a Flash Flood Warning issued in your neighborhood. My suggestion would be to temporarily stay with friend or any other place of safe shelter. Better to be Proactive than Reactive.

      • hermit crab

        Thank you. I have taken this advice…especially when considering this huge make oxygen from air machine I have to have with me right now. Couldn’t get this thing out in a hurry!

        • Apollo

          Take care. Keep us WW enthuesist “updated in real time”.

    • 714Beachgal

      Not sure about your locale but here in Huntington the Public Works Dept will fill sandbags and bring them to seniors and disabled folks. Check with your city to see if they can lend a hand.

      • hermit crab

        I have not been able to find anything like that. But I think it is a wonderful thing to do. Kudos to your public works dept.!

    • Thunderstorm

      Before the rain comes, check out your neighborhood. Are you in a low or high area. Where is the nearest creek? It will not!! be the same creek as it will find the path of least resistance. Debris will definitely alter the creek, likely all flat areas are susceptible. Rain rates come in high then figure one inch of topsoil removed from the hillsides all headed into the creeks. No break in the rain for several hours nothing more to say here.

      • inclinejj

        You can look at FEMA flood maps for your area. Is flood insurance required where you live? City Hall can help if you can’t find them online.

        • Tuolumne

          FEMA flood maps are a great start but they may not always catch mudslide hazards from small local canyons.

      • hermit crab

        The nearest creek is not too far up the street. It is culverted. We are very slightly downslope from it.

        We have areas higher than we are and others lower. We were low risk on the flood map until the new map came out with most of the city at high risk for flood and debris. This is for Carpinteria, but not Santa Barbara.

  • jstrahl

    .14 inches since midnight in central Berkeley. Hardly a tsunami so far, but far better than last month.

    • Idaho Native

      .21″ in Tiburon since midnight. I hear you- better than December by a long shot

    • You had another EQ?

  • Cap’n

    Just came down off the summit it is pouring up there and 38F, only raining slightly less hard here at home and 40F. Al you’re in the clear… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/54ad37459f8244e00df976ac76ff65d75901e0c6bef7b739a3657a7054b28cfb.png

    • matthew

      Been raining pretty good here for the last half hour. Radar looks like another half hour or more to go. 42F and not much wind.

      • Cap’n

        I’m seeing it lined up all the way to the Bay I’m thinking it will rain for some hours to come easy, we’ll see by morning I guess.

    • AlTahoe

      Driving home it was raining good from Incline to Spooner summit. Then dry and warm to South Lake.

      • Charlie B

        Donut ? hole Al.

  • Tyler Price (Seaside)

    Confirmed drizzle fest on the monterey bay ATTM. Very drizzly outside feels quite refreshing fairly warm out too as the clouds are acting as a blanket keeping colder nightime temps at bay, outside in a t shirt no problem not even the slightest chill on my bones lovin this weather thank God that dreadful sun went away we get too much of it in Cali time for some clouds and rain please! And oh my would u look at tjay storm for monday tuesday finally alas a real storm cant wait looks like my ptedictions are coming to fruition exactly as i said the weather wizard was right!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      We’ve overdosed on sunshine this winter

      • Dry Bones

        I’m overdosed on sunshine for my life

  • We’re on rainwatch here in SoCal, which is exciting enough. Over in New Hampshire, however, Mt Washington is shooting for a minus 100F windchill tonight. Its only 9pm there and its -32F and screaming 70+mph winds has it feeling -83. I think they will make the predicted 100 below WC. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9220579082ae00bfa166f880fdfaf5857f65364c0d0d694315d74c306151e87.png

    • Dry Bones

      I have always wanted to go there. It’s like Antarctica right here in the US!

  • thebigweasel

    Meanwhile, in cheery old Ottawa, the low tonight is -24, and the high tomorrow -21. Centigrade, but still…

    • inclinejj

      Isn’t that about-10 below zero F?

      • thebigweasel

        Yeah. I remember days like that when I was a kid. Googles and muffler and vaseline on exposed skin to prevent chilblains, and we still walked to school backwards because it just hurt too much to face into the wind.

        • inclinejj

          I have seen -12 a couple times in Tahoe. I’m ok down to about 0. Yesterday people completely lost their minds driving in the rain. 4 wrecks on Highway 1 in Pacifica and I was caught up in 3!

    • Michael_T (West Oakland)

      It is worth noting that Los Angeles experienced days last month with above average warmth. Please keep this in mind the next time you decide to irresponsibly post debatable claims.

      • thebigweasel

        All I posted was that it was extremely cold in Ottawa, my home town. I think you’re reading something into that which isn’t there.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Yikes.

  • Phil(ontario)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dbf19c16ab58c1587f263442b212fc9f63bf639fe5eb24ec110869dacabd146d.jpg
    I went jeeping today in the San Gabriel mountains. This is the north side of San gorgonio. The white dot you see is ……SNOW runoff. What you don’t see is above the white dot several canyons all lined with snow that the iPhone couldn’t pick up, but I was able to see clearly with binoculars. This canyon is close to 11,000 feet high and shaded all year round. So the answer to the question as to if the so cal mountains can have snow survive a full calendar year, the answer is YES!

    • Nathan

      that is rather amazing

    • PRCountyNative

      Are you sure it wasn’t dust, or ash? I’m skeptical. Shaded year round – is that possible? Would anything grow?

      • Phil(ontario)

        I doubt it was dust or ash because the color wouldn’t contrast against the surrounding area as the whole place would be covered in dust and ash as well. The snow was only in deep crevasses that would have been totally wind shielded and shaded. Outside the crevasses would get some sun in the summer time but the bushes are only shrubbery just at most a couple feet tall that wouldn’t require much if any sun.

      • Cap’n

        Positively that mountain, along with Jacinto can hold snow year round, but I agree, I’m skeptical too seeing as what a warm summer and fall it was, coupled with the fact that those mountains didn’t have huge years. I’ve hiked Baldy (1,500 ft lower) multiple times in August and even September with respectable snow fields, but those were after big snow years and not months into an extremely warm fall. Mountains up here held snow through the fall in select spots, Lola comes to mind which I hiked in October with huge snowfields, but that area probably got 700-800″ of snow…

        • Yeah I smell BS here, just no way after that frying pan action a few months ago. I want to believe, but thermodynamics says Pfft

  • inclinejj

    Weather speculator this morning. Friday’s storm is weak. Over half an inch in the rain gauge!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Next week’s storm now coming into the NAM window. Look at that bullseye over Thomas fire and North Bay fires. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cfc6153823fd5075f52582baf07ae7b7e5cec022faaedd95cec3bee207c1531.png

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Significant storms are the only way to recover from the deficit of rainfall in Southern California.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Indeed, however it’s a double-edged sword. Either way we can’t control what will happen next week but hopefully people are prepared for this.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          From one extreme to the next.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It comes with the territory. I had to fear slides just as these folks will and folks that live here in the future will choose to continue that choice as well. How we go about it is what’s important.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Collateral damage

    • VK (Sacramento)

      It is what it is

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      And that’s just through 4am PST Tuesday morning. LA/OC/SD counties are expected to see their heaviest rainfall during morning rush hour through early afternoon. The whole event should be within the NAM’s window by tomorrow’s 18z run.

      That much rain falling within 48hrs near Santa Barbara will definitely be a cause for concern.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Taz & Storm Master

    i this noted light snow falling at truckee airport

    https://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/trucke-airport-live

    • matthew

      I have 40F about five miles from the airport.

      • Cap’n

        Yeah just rain here I can hear it on the roof.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    I think the GFS is in good agreement with Monday event

  • Atmospheric_River
    • matthew

      If the storm showing up on the 17th actually happens it will make the month for us.

      • Atmospheric_River

        Who knows? This January could very well end up being like January 2017.

        • matthew

          We are already way behind last year so there is some serious catching up to do.

          • Atmospheric_River

            We’ll probably be good to go for the year if we have a wet January, February, and March.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            Yep, lets hope for a great Jan, Feb, and March. We dont need to be way above normal like last year. If we get anywhere near normal we would be ok

      • alanstorm

        Looks like a 5 day storm barrage

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      And for Coastal SoCal it looks like everyone gets at least an inch of rain, with most places getting more.
      If that verifies, it’s a gift for the whole state, with NorCal cashing in bigtime.

      Heck, even the Mojave Desert looks pretty wet. You’d have to go to Calexico to escape most of the rain.

      • Atmospheric_River

        Maybe that’s where Drought Lorde will go.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    the 18/19th storm is looking grate on tonight 0z GFS

  • Charlie B

    For the first rime in the satellite era the Chukchi Sea failed to reach 100% ice cover by December 31.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Crazy video out of Austria, bit confused why this lift wasn’t on wind hold..
    https://twitter.com/severeweathereu/status/948926755880034304

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I saw this, epic winds for sure!

  • AntiochWx

    From some of the ensembles, I’m picking up a TTT vibe in the long range. Trough looks to camp over the west coast and backbuild. Looks like a complete opposite dipole of what we just went through. Interesting none the less, something to watch to see how the models keep handling it over the next few days!

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      TTT?

      • AntiochWx

        Terribly Tenacious Trough.

        • matthew

          Terrifically Tenacious Trough.

          Fixed it for you.

      • tomocean

        Tenaciously Tough Trough

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Cyclonic wave breaking down the west coast, and something to add of substance to that is there is an obvious trend for True Siberian cold air to create our up and coming GOA low and that pattern continues as the trough sets up shop… Yes, that’s right… Siberian arctic air coming to the west coast.

      • Atmospheric_River

        This makes me wonder: is it possible to get a polar vortex in the West Coast?

        • AntiochWx

          Generally no, the Pacific ocean moderates the air quite a bit. We can get some cold air, but a PV over the BC/Yukon area is very difficult.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Unheard of, and highly unlikely to happen.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Count me in!

      • Charlie B

        Verkhoyansk is running about average. High -41 low -49 and 73% humidity.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Climate models have hinted at it being colder than average for around 3 weeks

      • Cap’n

        You guys are making everything move in total slow motion, I’m going to need to find a shed if these trends continue.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Nice!!!!

  • thebigweasel

    “I wish I had better news regarding the forecast, but at there moment
    there’s still no real sign of rain returning to California in the coming
    days.”
    Our hoste.

    Time for an update?

    • Nathan

      next update: “It may rain in the short term but thanks to global warming we are all fucked, fucked I tell you!”

      • PRCountyNative

        Daniel writes well and in a different style, if you read between the lines, yes, that’s the message.

      • Chase

        Come to Japan, rains all the time.. Got a big cold continent and a very warm tropical pacific.

        But Serioulsy.. California has had droughts and floods and windstorms etc for millenia. The whole state ( save the northwest ) is and historically has been a place where the atmosphere is mostly under subsidance of some sort. We don’t have constant air mass collision here and rather specific things need to happen in order for precip to ocurre .. look at the chapparal that covers most of it.

        So what any weather pattern globally is attributed to ” human accelarated global warming?”

        Im 100% for reducing greenhouse gasses and I do understand we contributed to the warming ( that was already underway )

        But to attribute a regional weather trend, drought, cold, wet, heat, to ” global warming” is not useful or scientifically accurate.

        I dont mean to sound like a jerk. It’s just a little hard not to chime in when people say stuff like that.

        To say, temperature anomolies globally have risen and so we have global warming is true.

        You could then hypothisize as to exactly the mechanisms are causing your CA drought and how are they related to the human part of the global warming trend but we just don’t have enough data for direct casation to be established.

      • thebigweasel

        Well, for a small area like SoCal, nobody really knows what the specific changes will be, just that change is coming. We could end up as a tropical rainforest–nobody knows.

  • Cap’n

    Impressive soaking, wasn’t expecting much rain tonight I’m already at .7″ and she’s still going strong. Radar indicating snow up high. 1.5″ for January and counting. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e0e3678fa2d8901a64051a977cf80a794e869a51e944ffc0aa2c3ce32993fe9.png

  • alanstorm

    Scathing report on the whole SPILLWAY fiasco, citing Dept Water Resources as basically incompetent, & even more disturbing, basic flaws in the original design of the dam:
    “…one of the key Oroville spillway designers was hired as a postgraduate with no engineering experience in spillways”.

    Now we’ll have to wonder what will happen every time it gets full?

    http://issuu.com/asdso/docs/independent_forensic_team_report_fi?e=16355058/57087615

    • Michael_T (West Oakland)

      Doesn’t it make you want to pull your hair out? It’s amazing what the dams have done for our water system, much less considering the environmental impacts. So many people were affected by the recent floods. My niece’s roommate was directly affected. Here’s hoping that we can make some common sense decisions on the public engineering projects in this state that need repair. There are so many things we need to work on together as a state. The ARkStorm theories are especially scary, and would definitely tax our dams. MAybe we will realize that development first doesn’t guarantee a payoff in the near future. All I can hope is that our state government will resist orange fascist’s attempts at “infrastructure” rehabilitation. *rant over*

    • Right. And I wonder if they will ever let it fill to the brim again or be paranoid that something could happen.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Not too far from there there is a little town called Magalia with a reservoir also called Magalia. The main road going into town goes over the damn. Years back they decided that the dam wasn’t built strong enough to hold as much water as it takes to fill the lake especially if there is also an earthquake so they lowered the max level and the shore line has been slowly filling back in with vegetation. I hope they don’t end up having to do that with Oroville.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Jim (Watsonville)

      They need the rain but man, thats a lot in a very short period…wont be pretty in some spots

    • Nathan

      Yeesh

  • Rusty Rails

    We had a brief period of dry around sunset in SC then right back into an ongoing mini-AR with periods of heavier rain cycling through the constant lighter stuff. Still going at 11pm and both the lagoon frogs and yard variety are going absolutely bananas with the vocals. Such a great sound to hear again. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/95e73b6699cf1cef04fb21b469627765ec868382947fedf4eb3e27905d283fe3.jpg