New insights into the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge & North American Winter Dipole

Filed in Uncategorized by on December 4, 2017 5,653 Comments

A timely example: Persistent Western ridge, Eastern trough next 2+ weeks

A pronounced example of the “Warm West/Cool East” temperature dipole pattern will develop over North America in the coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

In the coming days, a remarkably persistent weather pattern will begin to develop across North America and adjacent ocean regions. Characterized by strong high pressure near the West Coast and low pressure over the Eastern Seaboard, this “quasi-stationary,” high-amplitude atmospheric wave pattern will essentially become locked in place for at least the next 2 weeks. Patterns like this have a tendency to become self-reinforcing, lasting for much longer than more typical transient weather patterns and leading to prolonged stretches of unusual weather. This particular event will be no exception: California (and much of the West Coast) will almost certainly experience an extended, multi-week warm and dry spell, while much of the East Coast shivers through repeated blasts of cold, Arctic air.

As it turns out, these upcoming anomalous conditions provide a timely example of several atmospheric phenomena my colleagues and I have been studying over the past few years. In this post, I’ll explore the broader climate context of recent North American weather extremes, with a focus on insights gleaned from two recent scientific papers published by my colleagues and me.

A remarkably persistent, quasi-stationary atmospheric wave pattern will develop across much of the Northern Hemisphere, persisting for multiple weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

Recap: Origins of the “Triple R” and California’s severe drought

In 2013, a curious feature began to emerge on the weather maps: a region of unusually high atmospheric pressure (known as a “ridge” in meteorological circles) was consistently pushing the Pacific jet stream to the north of California, resulting in very dry conditions. At the time, I (somewhat jokingly) termed this anomalous high pressure zone the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” due to its implausible longevity, assuming that it would most likely recede by the subsequent blog post. Instead, the “Triple R” held strong straight through the entire winter—and then recurred, in slightly modified form, throughout the winters of 2014-2015 and 2015-2016.

Average position of the “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” over the course of the 2012-2015 portion of the California drought. (Adapted from Swain 2015)

The multi-year persistence of this anomalous atmospheric ridge was nothing short of extraordinary. The co-occurrence of record low precipitation and record high temperatures associated with the Triple R ultimately yielded California’s most severe multi-year drought on record. I previously discussed the rise of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge—and associated drought impacts—in an earlier post, which summarized findings from our initial scientific investigations (#1 and #2). Two key points arose from these early papers:

 

1) Atmospheric pressure patterns similar to the Triple R are now occurring more frequently than they did in previous decades.

2) The unprecedented magnitude and persistence of recent West Coast ridging can be traced (at least in part) to regionally-accentuated warming of the lower atmosphere.

As is often the case in scientific endeavors, these early findings raised more questions than answers. These lingering questions motivated us to continue our analyses, which resulted in the two new scientific papers discussed below. (And additional work remains in progress.)

 

A “standing wave” in the atmosphere: Warm in the west, cool in the east

Composite middle atmospheric pressure anomaly map corresponding to extreme North American temperature dipole days (compare to current forecast map above!). (Adapted from Singh et al. 2016)

Global wind and pressure patterns are not uniformly distributed across the Earth’s surface. Even at a given latitude, prevailing climate conditions can vary greatly from place to place (compare, for example, the winter climates of mild San Francisco and often snowy Washington, D.C., which are both located near coastlines around 38°N). These spatial variations in climate are a direct consequence of the physical geography of our planet: the exact position of our continents, ocean basins, and major mountain ranges dictate prevailing atmospheric conditions on a global scale.

In North America, these underlying geographical constraints yield a semi-permanent wintertime “wave” pattern in atmospheric pressure (in a two-dimensional map sense), which is characterized by generally higher pressure in the west and lower pressure in the east. This pre-existing wave pattern is not always easy to discern on surface weather maps, but becomes more apparent when considering pressure patterns at higher altitudes (often quantified as “geopotential height” (GPH)). This typical “western ridge/eastern trough” set-up predisposes the eastern U.S. to experience far colder winter temperatures than the West, as relatively mild southwest winds (originating over the Pacific Ocean) blow across the West Coast but harsher northwest winds (originating over the cold Canadian interior) blow across the East—producing a longitudinal temperature dipole. This “standing” (i.e. stationary) wave pattern is also the reason why California can be highly susceptible to long dry spells, even during the winter rainy season. More often than not, rain-bearing storms tend to veer northward just before reaching the West Coast due to the angled southwest-to-northeast trajectory of the jet stream as it approaches the west side of the semi-permanent Western ridge.

 

“Warm West/Cool East” extremes have become more common in recent years

Quite a few recent winters have featured not only extremely dry (and warm) conditions across much of California, but also numerous outbreaks of very cold, Arctic air across the eastern U.S. The Eastern Seaboard, in particular, has suffered through a number of regionally-crippling (and superlatively-named) “Snowmadeggon” and “Snowpocalypse” snowstorms. In most cases, these opposing extremes have occurred simultaneously due to an extreme amplification of this pre-existing “western ridge, eastern trough” configuration. Altogether, this recent flurry of wintertime extremes across North America raises the question: has there really been a sustained trend toward an increasingly pronounced winter temperature dipole?

 

Observed trends in the frequency of occurrence of extreme North American temperature dipole days (different colors represent different definitions of what constitutes a dipole). (Adapted from Singh et al. 2016)

Our recent work (led by Deepti Singh) answers this question affirmatively: there has indeed been an increase in the number of days each winter characterized by simultaneously very warm temperatures across the American West and very cold temperatures across the East. We found that there has been a substantial increase in the propensity for extreme ridge/trough sequences to produce especially severe temperature contrasts across the U.S., and (to a lesser extent) an increase in the frequency of the relevant atmospheric “western ridge/eastern trough” pressure patterns themselves. Using climate model simulations, we further found that an increase in extreme temperature dipole days like those we’ve observed in recent years is considerably more likely in a climate with rising greenhouse gas concentrations than in a hypothetical climate without human influence.

Intriguingly, this increase in contrasting dipole extremes appears to be caused primarily by the increased rate of warming in the western U.S. relative to the eastern U.S. While the eastern U.S. has indeed experienced a recent string of remarkable Arctic outbreaks, there hasn’t been a sustained trend toward cooler temperatures. In fact, when we estimated future changes using climate model simulations assuming continued growth in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, we found that the occurrence of these extreme temperature dipole days will soon start to decrease as winter warming accelerates across the entire United States—making it more difficult to achieve extreme thermal contrasts between the East and West.

One question we weren’t able to assess in this study was how the atmospheric pressure patterns conducive to extreme dipole events might themselves change in the future. But in a separate paper, we have now taken a closer look at the “Western Ridge” half of the equation—and I’ll discuss those results below.

 

Oceanic links to North Pacific winter ridging

Statistical relationships between ocean temperatures in different regions (black boxes) and middle atmospheric pressure patterns (i.e. GPH anomalies), plus long-term trends in ocean temperatures (right). (Adapted from Swain et al. 2017)

There has been a tremendous amount of interest—not just within the scientific community, but more broadly among weather-watchers and other drought-weary Californians—in understanding the causes and longevity of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge. And that turns out to be a genuinely challenging question to answer, despite several years of formal study by quite a few scientists. To date, the strongest evidence appears to implicate unusually warm ocean waters in the tropical western Pacific, which can trigger a hemisphere-scale wave pattern favoring an enhanced subtropical ridge near California. Other work has suggested that unusually warm ocean conditions in the “extratropical” Pacific (i.e. the so-called “Warm Blob” in the Gulf of Alaska) may also be linked to the persistent ridge—though there’s considerable evidence that the atmospheric Triple R caused the oceanic Blob, rather than the reverse. Still others have wondered whether the striking loss of Arctic sea ice in recent years may have played a role, though the evidence supporting this connection remains sparse. Finally, it has also been shown that random variations in the atmosphere can occasionally produce an extremely persistent North Pacific ridge. In other words: the Triple R may be at least partially attributable to “bad luck.”

In our latest paper, we set out to explore all of these hypotheses using a unified framework. Using a combination of real-world assimilated observations climate model simulations, we asked the following overarching question: are there traceable linkages between tropical/extratropical ocean temperatures, Arctic sea ice, and the occurrence of seasonally-persistent ridging along the West Coast?

 

Tropical Pacific may offer early warning of “Triple R”-like patterns

Observed middle atmospheric pressure pattern anomalies during the 2012-2016 (left) vs. predicted pressure pattern anomalies using the methods in our study (right). (Adapted from Swain et al. 2017)

Ultimately, we found that there do indeed appear to be strong relationships between Pacific Ocean temperatures and persistent West Coast ridges conducive to dry conditions in California. Especially prominent are the links to western tropical Pacific Ocean warmth. These connections appear several months in advance, which not only suggests a causal linkage but also hints that it may be possible to predict the occurrence of “Triple R”-like ridges several months in advance. This result agrees with previous work by other scientists suggesting that displaced tropical precipitation associated with West Pacific warming can generate a trans-Pacific atmospheric “wave train,” favoring an enhanced subtropical ridge near California. We also reproduced the already well-known connection between cool “La Niña” conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific and broader high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska, which can also lead to dry conditions in California.

Importantly, the West Pacific relationship exists independently of the El Niño/La Niña (ENSO) cycle: that is, warm conditions in the western tropics can be sufficient to cause a California ridge entirely on their own. Of even greater interest: recent warming of this particular portion of the Pacific Ocean has coincided with a considerable uptick in the frequency of persistent winter ridging near California. This latter point offers further circumstantial evidence that at least some portion of the recent California drought may have origins in the warming tropics.

What about “The Blob?” Well, we did find a strong statistical linkage between warm ocean conditions in the North Pacific and West Coast ridging—similar to that which occurred during the recent drought. In this case, though, the “chicken or egg” issue rears its head once again: while a time-lagged relationship between autumn ocean temperature and winter ridging did exist in observations, only an contemporaneous relationship existed in climate model simulations. We posed two possible reasons for this divergence: either the persistent ridging itself caused the subsequent ocean warmth (rather than the reverse), or climate models may be underestimating the role that warm North Pacific SSTs can play in ridge-building. Additionally, it’s still plausible that warm ocean temperatures in this region, once in place, can enhance the persistence of ridging via self-reinforcement (i.e. high pressure causes the warm ocean in the first place, which then favors more high pressure, thus causing an even warmer ocean).

Observational analysis suggests a possible link between sea ice loss and West Coast ridging (here, blue represents ridging when sea ice decreases). Climate model simulations, however, do not support this relationship. (Adapted from Swain et al. 2017)

And how about the sea ice hypothesis? Well, the link between Arctic sea ice anomalies and West Coast ridging remains…unclear. Our observational analysis hinted at a possible relationship, but climate model simulations disagreed. As my co-authors and I have previously emphasized, however, a scientific “absence of evidence” is not necessarily equivalent to an “evidence of absence.” That is to say: just because we didn’t find strong evidence of a connection doesn’t mean one doesn’t exist in the real world. The Arctic is now warming more than twice as fast as the rest of the world, and sea ice has been disappearing at a greater rate than had projected by climate models—a rapid rate of change that has complicated scientific investigations into high-latitude linkages. Indeed, the relationship between “Arctic amplification”/sea ice loss and mid-latitude climate remains the subject of a vigorous and ongoing debate in atmospheric and polar science circles. While it’s increasingly clear that these profound shifts in the Arctic have the potential to alter mid-latitude weather, it still is not clear precisely where, when, and to what degree. Thus, while our work does not obviously implicate sea ice loss in recent California extremes, it’s still plausible that stronger evidence could emerge using more sophisticated modeling tools or new observational approaches in the future.

 

Some conclusions, and thoughts about the present winter

Ocean temperatures have been cool in the eastern tropical Pacific and warm in the western tropical Pacific since early autumn. (NOAA via tropicaltidbits.com)

Ultimately, we confirm that unusual ocean temperatures are linked to seasonally-persistent West Coast winter ridging similar to the Triple R. Tropical warmth (in the West Pacific) and coolness (in the East Pacific) are both linked to different patterns of North Pacific winter ridging, and may offer an early warning of seasons with an elevated risk of dry conditions in California. Interestingly, tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures during autumn 2017 were warm in the west and cool in the east amidst a modest (and ongoing) La Niña event—a combination that suggests a substantially elevated likelihood of West Coast ridging this winter. To date, Southern California has experienced one of its driest starts to the Water Year on record, and strikingly persistent West Coast ridging is now expected to last at least two weeks. It will certainly be interesting to see how this winter plays out in the context of these new research findings.

 

This blog post focuses on peer-reviewed research from two separate papers published in scientific journals (Singh et al. 2016 and Swain et al. 2017). While most Weather West articles are primarily based upon my own informal thoughts and analysis, this piece is directly informed by formal investigations by a team of scientists. I would like to thank my collaborators in this work—Deepti Singh, Daniel Horton, Justin Mankin, Tristan Ballard, Leif Thomas, Bala Rajaratnam, and Noah Diffenbaugh—for their invaluable support and ongoing insights.

I am happy to provide a personal copy of any paper mentioned above (on which I am an author) upon email request.

Want to learn more? Follow climate scientists on Twitter!
Daniel Swain, Deepti Singh, Daniel Horton, Justin Mankin

 

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  • Bombillo1

    Well, here is the scientific ( thru statistical analysis) proof that temperatures are driving asylum seekers and immigration. This study focuses on food production zones and their deviation from the ideal of 20 degree C for growing. When does the Central Valley egregiously exceed this ideal range of temperatures which will then drive exmigration? Like to hear Bob G’s take on this.. Peru is becoming more favorable for food production.

    https://phys.org/news/2017-12-hotter-temperatures-migration-asylum-seekers-europe.html

    • matthew

      Saw this yesterday. The evidence of climate change is staring us right in the face. As for the Central Valley – it will be lack of water, not just temps, which end its run as a premier growing region.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        There will be no defense of almonds; maybe the Willamette valley will grow them

        • matthew

          Exporting our water, one nut at a time.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Still 41 F degrees!

  • Fairweathercactus

    The model runs where so bad this morning you might as well just sleep through the day and wake up again tomorrow or another week.

  • jstrahl

    Bryan is “throwing in the towel” regarding any measurable snow by year’s end. Sees the possibility of a change around the 5th or 6th, 65% of ensembles now on board Says this season’s snowfall is only 8% of average. This could wind up as one of the three worst years ever. Sees an analogy with ’95-6, which wound up with 80% of average snowfall (though well above average rainfall in the Bay Area).I think any analogy with the past is erroneous, we’re in unchartered waters.
    http://opensnow.com/dailysnow/tahoe.

    • I didn’t think we could go from bad to worse, but here we are.

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    I predict January-March will be bone dry and we’ll be seeing nothing but chaos and disappointment. Curse of La Nina. Winter Olympics will also be endangered species to our warming world.

    Good news, Thomas Fire is 65 percent contained with very little growth in the last several days. I’m still waiting for the champagne shower once in passes Cedar.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      You must have forgot last year was a weak La Niña.

      • Bombillo1

        ENSO is the new buggy whip.

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        If I remember, weak La Nina’s are better for us than strong ones.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          This one isn’t strong.

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            It is stronger than last year’s however by a good margin. I think last year it was barely starting to move from El Nino to La Nina. I think this time around there is sufficient strength to give us a below average year 🙁

    • ThomTissy

      I’m not sure that holding winter olympics will be a problem unless the plan is to have it in the Sierra’s. A lot of this stuff seems to be impacting California.

  • CHeden

    Perhaps something to watch is the after-effects from a powerful eruption in Kamchatka of BEZYMIANNY two days ago. At it’s peak, the eruptive cloud reached an estimated 50,000′, well above the tropopause (which was~ 30,000′ at the time per soundings)…so some aerosol-generating SO2 has likely made it into the Junge layer.
    The eruption, though powerful, was short lived, so the total mass of ejected material into the stratosphere is not that great.
    Winds have been carrying the plume NE over the Bering Sea, and if there is any chance of tropospheric cooling, it would be in that area. IMHO, there is an outside chance the cooling and upper cloudiness will marginally help in rebuilding Arctic Sea ice, especially over the Pacific side of the Arctic ocean?
    BEZYMIANNY is one of Kamchtka’s most active volcanoes, and has a history of powerful eruptions…and while the chances are remote, an even more powerful eruption from BEZYMIANNY in the near cannot be ruled out. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8574c68fc2bccc6f0c2ce0626bdb68d4c65bf439821301d89ce470777c794e95.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77bf6c410d0ae0bb423cf10982c1c22e6762d8d5263337d258c94602758449d0.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9f0532cb5e5a8afacad17e8d1ecfae50b10cc1237e910b52c8876fcd2e80647d.png

    • inclinejj

      Would that effect weather this winter or next?

      • CHeden

        Given that the amount of ejecta was rather puny (as compared to Mt. Pinatubo for example which had a planetary-wide effect), the potential impact of BEZYMIANNY-caused dust/aerosols in the Bering Sea/southern Arctic Ocean would be at a somewhat local level…hence mostly in the short-term. Unfortunately, only hindsight can confirm if anything happened…since what we’d expect to see is a anomalous perturbation in a longer-term trend.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I think the rest of the year, Jan-Apr is a BOOM or bust situation.

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      I bet it’s a bust, but winter has barely started.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I was pretty sure that would be the fist comment.?

      • Fairweathercactus

        100% bust. Time to write off this winter and look forward to the next.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          What makes you so sure

          • Fairweathercactus

            I feel what you see in October is what you get for most of the season. All we got was a tail end of one system. We had a big flop storm in November as well. That sets the tone for the rest of the season.

            We are done with the way the ridge is set up over the ocean. It is going to be a short warm water. Get ready cause I am starting to feel Summer will be a stinker as well. Below normal monsoon, warm, little tropical activity in the Pacific., We need to keeps are heads low till next October.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Not for here, SF average rainfall for La Nina’s that are weak to moderate and had a OCT with <1" averaged 22.92 inches of rain for the year.

          • jstrahl

            Past precedents mean little.

          • ThomTissy

            This has been the approach, more or less, for the last 8 years or so in SoCal. This is a monster of a drought.

    • matthew

      My bet is on “meh”. Some precip, but nothing spectacular. For NorCal anyway.

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    SMX reached 29 this morning.

  • Freddy66

    Can’t wait for summer. It’s going to be relentless 100 degree days and no low clouds and fog in the morning. What is the forecast for next winter ?

    • CHeden

      Persistence.

    • tomocean

      I think you are almost worse than Fairweather Cactus. It’s pretty close though.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I hope a warm winter does not necessarily mean a hot summer esp re: current ENSO. But the past several summers featured high dew points/ minimins. Very uncomfortable

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    It is very telling that Mark Kriski/ KTLA said warm temps next week “won’t need air conditioning at least”.

  • Drought Lorde

    The Drought Lorde is working over time to ensure no one was leaky roofs, or gets bad elbows from shoveling to much snow. I will protect you from those pesky storms. Your welcome, merry Christmas and happy dry new to all! 🙂 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f5b1328dc1f9de3b115db83a3791e467b1b89bd4cdef5eae2cda82661e7a237f.png

    • Eddie Garcia

      I’d rather have a leaky roof

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      The boomerang effect delivered to the wisher of misfortune upon others is known as karma.

      Karma – the sum of a person’s actions in this and previous states of existence, viewed as deciding their fate in future existences. Destiny or fate, following as effect from cause.

    • alanstorm

      Guess it’s pretty funny on a weather blog, cheering on drought & fires.
      Just across the hill from me, we had 9 people who burned to death Oct 9, including 2 children. One died in his driveway, his sister survived awhile, but had to have her legs amputated before ultimately being taken off life support.
      Real funny. Ha ha 🙂

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Merry Christmas, you filthy animal.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    My prediction for SF’s rainfall this year is near average at 20″.

    • Unbiased Observer

      An eternal optimist I see, I guess somebody needed to take Tyler Price’s place.

    • jstrahl

      Across the Bay, we’ll be lucky to get to 10 inches.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        how?

        • jstrahl

          How will we get to 10 inches? Lots of luck! 🙂

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Do u have any evidence of the rest of winter being really dry?

          • jstrahl

            10 inches or so for the season is what happened in ’75-6. And that was 40 years ago, before climate weirding. Do i know for sure that this winter will turn out like that? No, but i have a feeling given the incredible persistence of the ridge and the total stagnation of all northern hemisphere weather patterns.

  • Fairweathercactus
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      nice

    • LOL that’s actually a “Thanksgiving” variety. The “Christmas” variety doesn’t have pointed leaves. I have both 🙂

  • Shane Ritter

    Grey overcast day here in Reno. Cold, 33*. Some virga occurring north of town. I love grey days! To bad there’s no storm to go with it.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Ridging looks to persist for the next 12+ days, that leaves me with a monthly total of .13 inches. Winter has taken off work the whole month of DEC. We still have the chance of a good second half of the wet season.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    I looked back at some rainfall records for downtown Los Angeles, and there were 3 years during the last 50 years in which the fall was extremely dry to bone-dry: 1962-63, 1995-96, and 1999-2000. All three of these winters had rain off and on from late January on into April, and none of them were the driest seasons on record for L.A. Maybe this year will follow that pattern.

    • Farmer47

      What we’re the rain totals for each of those 4 years

      • Dan the Weatherman

        For Los Angeles, 1962-63 brought around 8″, 1980-81 around 8″ or just above, 1995-96 around 12″ to 12.5″, and 1999-2000 around 11.5″.

        • Farmer47

          In 95 was the bulk of the rain in March?

          • Dan the Weatherman

            In 1996, the bulk of the rain fell in February and March.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    It is not just elevation that separated 30’s for 40’s this morning:

    YORBA LINDA 370 : 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
    FULLERTON AIRPORT 96 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
    SANTA ANA 135 : 64 / 48 / 0.00 /
    HUNTINGTON BEACH 5 : 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
    JOHN WAYNE AIRPORT 55 : 66 / 43 / 0.00 /
    LAKE FOREST 970 : 65 / 48 / 0.00 /

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It looks as if it was colder in the wind sheltered areas, which are those areas that are not as prone to Santa Anas such as Fullerton and Huntington Beach. Yorba Linda is close to the Santa Ana Canyon, with Chino Hills State Park bordering them to the north, while Lake Forest is close to the Santa Ana Mountains. John Wayne seems to be a bit more vulnerable to Santa Ana winds, despite its relative distance from the Santa Ana Mountains.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        Here in the wind-sheltered SGV I had a low this morning of 30 degrees. Lowest temp reading in a very looooooong time.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    This looks interesting, this. Fingers crossed, toes, eyes (ouch), arms, legs – everything that the human body can contort into an X…

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/nepac/flash-rb.html

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bad35a43f252daa43bcaa358f083bf43f0eeec989e0918894f00e99bd9eb3fc5.jpg

    • jstrahl

      All moisture, no dynamics.

  • Dry Bones

    There has been a lot of talk of the attempt-at-reassuring type regarding the fact that there have been other bone-dry autumns in the past, including years in the previous climatic eon of the 1950s and 1960s. Has anyone looked into the proximal causes of those past bone-dry years, i.e., were they also caused by ridges of monstrous amplitude and duration, or, as I would guess, caused by more subtle combinations of unfavorable atmospheric parameters that weren’t so hard to break out of? In other words, is this ridgezilla more of a large, singular climate disaster vs other times that may have been more akin to a lot of small pieces of bad luck adding up into a dry fall?

    • This current pattern is pretty unique over the entire NH when comparing to other dry seasons.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • ThomTissy

      I think the GFS is showing something similar.

      • Idaho Native

        I’m massively confused/frustrated by how it seems models do enormously well at predicting bone dry ridges two weeks in advance but a storm system they can’t even begin with! Am I crazy or does seem to be a trend..

        • ThomTissy

          No, it’s very normal that they are wrong, especially for California. Us Californians go crazy because we are so prone to drought and we know that once May rolls around there is no weather other than sun and heat until October.

          • Freddy66

            You mean December…or yeah…oh f$$k it

          • ThomTissy

            Not the first completely dry rainy season month and definitely wont be the last. That’s the pain of California.

        • matthew

          If I predict bone dry for the next 365 days, I will be right somewhere around 80% of the days (depending on where you live in the state). Predicting dryness is easy compared to predicting a storm. Even if the reasons for predicting dry are wrong, you still have overwhelming odds with you.

        • jstrahl

          Ridges are normal. Storms are abnormalities,which is why they are hard to predict. Daniel has even written a blog post about this.

    • Juggernaut

      What is the difference between CFS and GFS?

      • C and G

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        CFS is a climate model the other is operational one that runs in the “short range” and has more data and has more specific readings.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Just for fun everyone guess what the 18z shows in fantasyland
    A. Ridge of death
    B. Cold snap
    C. Big, warm storm
    D. Decent sized storm, low snow levels

    • Drought Lorde

      I’m going with A, ridge of death please!

      • Fairweathercactus

        I will take A for the win.

      • Freddy66

        Nobody’s died yet…wait til July

    • alanstorm

      A. Alpha Block
      B. Omega Block
      C. Beta Blocker
      D. Monsoonal flow
      E. Tea Cup Poodle
      F. Meaty Urologist

    • Freddy66

      The only model run that matters is the one after the storm has already passed

    • Big warm storm = Sierra Ski Slope Base Blaster.
      Tahoe needs some mashed taters badly, case in point, this is the crest and the blue dot to the left is Granite Chief, to the right, Squaw Peak:
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e18ee19dc6a0cccea001bd3277999dd89b4b67a6f70643f4fb2655ef61af3d7e.jpg

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Does not look appealing…

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      Did we get bingo yet?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      The answer is D, but the 00z has came and its now A.

    • Good yet long read 🙂 I like that Rossby waves can be used as a possible forecasting tool.

      • Idaho Native

        I already call bust on it.

    • alanstorm

      See? I knew it!!!
      This would be the year for it with such a stagnant, amplified pattern

      • One can only imagine.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I’m not threatened by any flooding whatsoever so I’m in for 40 days of heavy rain!

  • Dan the Weatherman

    Do any of you on here believe it is possible that Socal could get shut out in terms of precipitation for the entire winter and spring just as we have this fall? I know that has not happened before since records have been kept, although 2006-07 came close.

    • matthew

      The optimist in me says no. If it happens I will start googling for good survivalist websites.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I am also thinking that we won’t be shut out as well.

    • weathergeek100

      Anything can happen in times like this. The most abnormal things are the new normal. I wouldn’t be surprised if you guys do get completely shut out.

      Other places in the world are experiencing very unusual, almost unheard of events. For example- I’m writing this from Vietnam right now. It’s my first visit to Southeast Asia and the dry season is the time to go. There’s a typhoon developing just to the south of us (and there was one couple of weeks ago) and is going to ruin our plans as we head south into the country. Thailand also has widespread thunderstorms forecast.

      Back to back typhoons in Asia in almost January. Yeah.

      • alanstorm

        You may need to stay north. I missed the Tstorms by staying around Bangkok, wasnt even very hot. Unusual.
        Big monsoon & flooding in the southern provinces going on so I couldn’t go to Krabi.
        Have fun! Vietnam is a great country.
        Drink lots of water (bottled)

        • Yolo Hoe

          Yep, Vietnam is amazing — traumatizing as the American experience was there so recently, it’s really just one part of a very interesting history.

          • alanstorm

            As a woodcarving fan, SE Asia is the best. Everything is done by hand.
            Cambodia is on my bucket list, I’d like to do the Killing Fields tour they have, Angkor Wat, etc.
            Doubt I’ll get to do it. It’s a huge an overland journey.

          • Yolo Hoe

            That’s a great point about the woodcarving

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Are typhoons rare this time of year? I thought they could occur any time of the year, although with less frequency this late in the year.

    • A strong amateurs no.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      I think it’s possible to go less than 1 inch. Our sample size is pretty small in the bigger picture… who knows

  • Frustrating. Rocket launches can be viewed over extremely wide areas, and after eons of excellent weather including a cold front sweeping all the crap out of the sky, now it’s turned to garbage again right in time for a SpaceX Christmas present. Either we aren’t allowed to have good weather or we are tortured by the table scraps from up North:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/790995e9a9165a88f52e34ff1717d28a4468bed9f5926e6f718f054cce7270d0.gif

  • inclinejj

    Actually despite the rather dire dry spell, it looks like, smells like and feels like rain outside. Been out since 9:15 and it’s really starting to get gloomy out.

    • CHeden

      Amazingly, same thing all the way up to Cottonwood. Slate-gray altostratus kept temps struggling to reach the upper 40’s with a chilly 47F now at my place at 1630. Looking towards the horizon, lots of thin virga is evident, but it’s not getting anywhere near the surface.

  • Bonus Trivia: is this today’s sunrise or sunset? Note cool lenticular over the water. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/976cc5d6a840fdcb03a40a568b1049de6a98ff9f8886901261d6f94051f54bdd.png

  • Apollo

    A Falcon9 to be launched at 5:27 tonight at Vandenberg. There should be enough sunlight over the horizon to see the rocket trail at high altitudes with some intense colors maybe. Weather conditions: Crystal Clear

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • Apollo

      Very nice.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Nice shots! You probably had one of the best seats in the house due to your area’s proximity to Vandenberg.

      • Steve92

        We all know this was really a chem trail program to keep socal dry for January.

        • Apollo

          Oh…..Steve,Steve,Steve!

          • Steve92

            I was surprised we got a short glimpse of it through the clouds near Manteca California.

    • CHeden

      Excellent!

    • malnino

      Nice!! Got the full pyro-spectacular light show driving west on the 210 freeway, so did all the other cars who almost all ended up driving into each other while drivers were craning their necks to get a glimpse of this spectacle!

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      We were walking out of Target in Long Beach as this was happening. Lots of people stopping and staring at the spectacular light show. Awe inspiring, especially to see the first stage separate from the launch vehicle and spin out as it exhausted the last of its fuel, and seeing the rest of the rocket ignite and blast off.

      • Pfirman

        I used to live there. Here I thought you were happily ensconced in Rancho C.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      As we sit in NorCal with clouds overhead, smh. Awesome photos!

    • Peavine Violet

      Nice!!!

    • Apollo

      If the first storm we get has a lot of oragraphic lift. The widespread danger of all the hillsides coming down.

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Time for a champagne celebration. Haha.

  • The moisture streaming by from the storms up North may not have brought any rain due to a lack of dynamics, however it did make for a gorgeous day in the mountains:
    https://youtu.be/I0RPErfvQmw

    • Yolo Hoe

      Nice! I enjoyed great snowshoeing off the PCT Tuesday and then today on way home + the miracle of man made snow at Northstar on Wednesday.

      Like Charlie B, I’ve enjoyed reading McLaughlin’s snowbound vignettes — no reason at this point to think we won’t see some serious terrain opening snowpack develop in January/February — finishing at 85 – 90% would be just fine given the bounty last WY.

      I also cannot help but think again how unlucky the Donner party actually was — big years that start that early were rare then just as they are rare now.

      • Tuolumne

        Bad decision-making early that delayed them by three weeks, then bad weather-luck in the Sierra. Having both happen to the same party was another layer of bad luck.

    • janky

      Isn’t that video of Alpine Meadows?

  • BlackCat

    The low this morning in Santa Maria was a chilly 29F! The high today was a mild 67F! Very large diurnal range as well.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Interesting. We had the same low even though SM is usually a bit colder than SB.

  • annette johnson

    Hey, thanks to Osse on the heads up on the rocket launch. We had some high clouds obscuring it…and then I was late getting a pic so it’s kinda crappy.
    Without the clouds it would have been an awesome sight, even way over here on the Colorado River. The clouds made for a really red sunset. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aba3d4c0954365eb596f8a34611b65ad109e7d9c8d980cdee6d5905ef6cabae9.jpg

  • Peavine Violet

    Tahoe peeps…. how is the snow up at the Meadows? Snowshoeable? Or in need of more white stuff? Which leads me to ask…is any on the way soon?

    • matthew

      If you want snow sports you either need to be where there is snowmaking or high along the crest. No significant weather anytime soon…maybe a couple dustings.

      • Yolo Hoe

        That’s the summary exactly.

      • Peavine Violet

        That’s what I thought … thank you

  • Shane Ritter

    Apparently we are getting some light snow showers here in Northern Nevada. Quite a surprise, I literally expected nothing at all!

    • Peavine Violet

      ?really?

  • RandomTreeInSB

    I just noticed something interesting. Looking back at rainfall records for downtown Santa Barbara, there were a few extremely dry falls, and one in particular (Fall of 1962) caught my eye.

    Similar to now, that fall was preceded by a above-average winter. Water year of 1961-62 matches up almost perfectly with 2016-17 in terms of rainfall amounts (26.17 vs 26.20 inches). And similar to 2016-17, the rainy season of 1961-62 had a wet Dec-Feb period (February was extremely wet). But things dried out from March and beyond, with no measurable precip from April until the end of season, similar to this year.

    Interestingly, 1961-62 was also preceded by a drought, not as long as the last one we had, but it featured 3 consecutive dry rainy season in a row with rainfall below 60% of average.

    As for 1962-63, aside from 0.42″ on October 14th, that fall and also early winter was exceptionally dry, and the rain didn’t pick up until the 31st of January. Then Feb-Apr was relatively wet (with a big storm on February 10th), and the season finished with 14.50″

    Thoughts? Did we have a similar setup back then or a completely different one? Either way I find it to be interesting and wonder if something similar plays out this season.

    • Freddy66

      You would think it has to rain eventually.

    • Bartshe

      more Arctic ice in them days, and cooler atmospheric and ocean temps, past comparisons are rapidly fading from practicality.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        With the Arctic warming and loss of Arctic ice, do you think it is going to get to the point someday that southern California is never going to see winter rains again?

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Would never expect this from you, times have really changed.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I am really just wondering due to the severe drought conditions we have been experiencing off and on over the last several years, and the warmer weather that has come along with it. I know drought cycles are normal for this region, and I have seen wet cycles and drier cycles before as it seems we alternate between the two. It is still possible we are simply in a drier cycle right now, and that we will have another wetter cycle at some point in the future. However, the very recent warming of the Arctic has thrown a monkey wrench into things that may be starting to have a severe impact on our climate in a negative way, but it will take a few more years to really sort this all out.

        • Bartshe

          Would not say “never”. Would say increasing variability. Seems that more dry time is probable with more intense & widely spaced wet intervals than past.

    • celo

      It seems from what history says, (but I agree with Bartshe, there really isn’t any history) we should get a strong period of storminess once the pattern shifts, but not enough to bring us up to average. Somewhere between 50 to 70 percent of a typical rainy season.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I made a post earlier today about 4 years that had dry falls in Socal and 1962-63 was one of the years that I mentioned. These 4 years, 1962-63, 1980-81, 1995-96, and 1999-2000 all had very dry to exceptionally dry falls, but they all featured rain from the end of January all the way through April, and none of them were record dry winters for downtown Los Angeles.

      The real issue these days is the loss of Arctic ice and Arctic warming that seems to be wreaking havoc on our weather patterns as of late.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Good to hear, and I hope the season ramps up like it did in those years. If not, we still have enough stored water to sustain through the summer but I’m more worried about the local flora and fauna.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I am really hoping we get some decent rains later this season. We really need it for the flora and fauna just as you mentioned, but we also need the snow for our water supply and for the winter sports industry. It would also be nice to not have to irrigate so much during the wet season as well.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        2000-2001 is a pretty incredible analog to precipitation so far in the Bay Area

        • jstrahl

          In 2000, though, it was October which was unusually wet. This year, it was November, similar amount to October 2000, though for November, while well above average, not as extreme. But again, that was then, before the Big Meltdown.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    Two more days until the days start to get longer until we hit summer again. Feels like we just got out of it.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83d2a96fdaaa3008ade7a51211de7ac31ceef9af8a6e78f970e8a507bddba712.jpg

  • B_R

    Anyone know why the air quality in the bay area has been really bad this evening? I thought with all the wind the air would clear but it hasn’t.

    • jstrahl

      It was RAUNCHY looking from Wildcat Peak in Tilden towards … well, any direction. I quickly descended into the canyons where i could focus on what’s right in front of me.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Fantasyland isn’t our friend either, it will be next run though, lol! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017122300/gfs_z500aNorm_npac_53.png

  • Happy Cactus

    This is one long dry spell, more like dry curse, I hope this isn’t another 2006-2007. The cactus suffered greatly that year.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I don’t really know if I can call this a dry spell, because Socal hasn’t had a legitimate storm system yet this season that has produced a widespread decent rainfall.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        more like a seasonal dry spel,l your rain should start in NOV

        • Dan the Weatherman

          We should have had some rain in both November and December, even though the bigger storms are usually in January and February, and sometimes even in December.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            You know best

        • Tom & Koyano Gray

          See us old So Cal’ers know its kinda like waiting for a train in India, it’ll get here eventually.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Tuolumne

      More accurate would be a brick wall, or maybe a lead one….

  • Nate

    Here’s my view of this evening’s Vandenberg launch 200+ miles away from the Bay Area. It’s a crappy video (viewing conditions weren’t great and I failed at trying to track the rocket), but it was pretty cool to see.
    https://youtu.be/AwozyBxFtcQ

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I should have went outside! When’s the next launch?

      • Wolfpack

        According to NASA, March 15, 2018. It didn’t specify launch time.

    • Tom & Koyano Gray

      We saw the first stage separate in San Diego. Great show, always a few panic phone calls though.

  • BerryessaSage

    Maybe they could try this here, anything to get rid of this dreaded donut hole over California. http://newsfeed.time.com/2011/01/03/scientists-create-52-artificial-rain-storms-in-abu-dhabi-desert/

    • jstrahl

      Right, let’s get out of a hole we’ve created ourselves by messing with the atmosphere by.. messing with the atmosphere some more.

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Manmade monsoons.

  • Telegraph Hill

    France is taking the lead in combating climate change. We have some catching up to do. I wonder what kind of weather extremes they’ve been experiencing in Europe – snowmageddon I would think?

    http://thehill.com/news-by-subject/energy-environment/365755-france-to-ban-oil-and-gas-production-by-2040

  • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

    Here in the desert (SoCal), we will survive this dry winter, but NorCal are you freaking out yet?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1fde13c7a35b248a58cb41a7ac8ceff5806a77be124fa90a4bab7aa2b3264aac.png .

    • AlTahoe

      Lakes are still way above average so why would we be freaking out? If next year is the same maybe. I think we are at about 75% of average precip in the Sierra so it is nothing out of the ordinary.

    • Bay isn’t. Things are greened up decently. In the areas that got rain already life isn’t so dire.

    • Not yet.

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    Want to make a bet when the next significant rainfall will come to L.A.? I would say February 1 right after the Grammys.

    • John

      Is that February 1, 2018?

      • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

        When we get a new governor.

    • jstrahl

      February 1 of which year?

  • Yolo Hoe

    Not trying to over interpret weak signals, but it is interesting how similar the early December pattern this year and its aftermath (including fantasy land fantasies) has been to 2013 — Drought Lorde may ironically be optimistic regarding the storm door opening around 25 January as wasn’t until early February 2014 brought a Pineapple Express if I remember correctly and if this current pattern is indeed an analogue to that RRR.

  • sezwhom

    Always nice to see a 588 dm Ridge over CA. Oh wait? We’ve pretty much seen that since June. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b3f07d0f069a91f1cbed33515fa5b09e5fda5bbf6c614b432beb55ef41e10300.png

  • Eben

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/432d79f2f823d0c628ca8d7d1bdc9e7c51c8dfed8bd4912442502feccbf54d35.png

    Here’s the latest rainfall chart for my house in Stevens Canyon, near Cupertino. There’s been a lot of discussion on these forums about our dry spell. It does look a lot like our drought years, especially 2011-12 and 2013-14, though like the rest of you I really hope it won’t last as long! 2014-15 was also dry from mid-December to early February. And 2012-13 from New Year’s through Spring.

    Of course a January like last year would make everything right again!

  • JOHN CURTIS

    Thomas Fire sets official record!

    • TheNothing

      StormMaster is probably as happy as the next contestant on the Price Is Right.

  • Charlie B

    You run and you run to catch up to the sun but it’s sinking
    Racing around to come up behind you again
    The sun is the same in a relative way but you’re older
    Shorter breath and one day closer to death
    Every year is getting shorter nerves seem to find the time
    Plans have either come to naught or are half a page of scribbled lines https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/935bb0e5dbb95bf0bb8b68129713672be2327ac00be7ef66ecd9d211e32c47c9.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      Breathe, breathe in the air.

      Nice time to wake, bake and be grateful for what we have, whatever that is.

      Dirty ridging at least creates great sunrise/set visuals.

      • Charlie B

        In these times I am drawn to depressing lyrics.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Indeed — I just finished a high volume session of comfortably numb — out of the corner of my eye, I caught a fleeting glimpse…….of last year’s snowpack

  • Charlie B

    Satellite radio is a blessing and a curse. It did help pass the nine hours it took to drive from San Clemente to Reno. It also subjected me to endless variations of White Christmas. I now know, through experience, that in addition to Bing Crosby, there are chart versions by The Ravens (Country), The Troubettes (R&B), Montavani, Andy Williams, Otis Redding, Michael Bolton, Garth Brooks and Bette Midler. I suppose that Nirvana and the Ramones probably recorded it but decided not to release their versions. And to think, this was written by a songwriter of the Jewish faith. May all your Christmases be White! (Even if you have to go to Wikipedia to look up the word “snow” to remind yourself what it looks like.)

  • Drought Lorde

    I’m very excited about this pattern transition in the new year. From dry and cold to dry and warm! Let the new year be one of big ridges and beach weather in February. I think California will get only more storm of note this winter, in mid February, it’ll be a weak AR. Otherwise just weak impulses. One on the 25th of January, another on the 20th of February. Then 4 very weak storms in the beginning of march. Squaw valley will end with a grand total of 135″ this season. The Sierra snowpack will end at 4% of average, beating the 2015 record! SF will end will 4.5″ of rain, and LA with 3.5″. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/76f298758e6675d4dea3d05ef9e94e83278f6b4f203d06f7060f07d3b9f2e01b.png

    • Taz & Storm Master

      the 12z GFS this got done lol

    • CHeden
      • Plus or minus one modest storm, two weeks out. Ensembles have been remarkably consistent in predicting the persistence of ridging and well below avg precip, unfortunately. Giving it a few more days, but I think we’re getting back into Triple R territory now.

        • Taz & Storm Master

          winter is closed this year bring on a warm too hot spring and summer

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          12z GFS trying hard to break the ridge. Do you have any estimate to when you think precip will return?

        • CHeden

          And now the 12Z. Go figure. There is something https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fca06c0b3464a62dd8b47d54a2a90354f278fdc00cd44359f4156b75f3d35048.gif very volatile that the GFS keeps flipping around on..and for the life of me, I can’t figure out where such large swings in solutions are originating from.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            I think it’s all about how fast and strong LP systems are in the GOA and NPAC

          • CHeden

            Perhaps….but I don’t think that’s the entire answer. The SPJ needs to amp up as well…and my guess is that the forecasted strength of the jet is right on the borderline of being able to break the ridge or continue to get deflected north. As we know, forecasting jet strength during a transition period is often a crap-shoot..and this is what we seem to be seeing now. As Daniel say’s, a wait and see game to see if/how things settle out.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            I hope it goes our way for once (excluding last year)

          • CHeden

            Me too!

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I posted an article here a while back (that was written back in 2007) that discusses the idea that smog and air pollution from Asia has intensified storms over the central Pacific. I am wondering if this storm formation over the central Pacific is pumping the RRR up over the west coast, leading to the conditions that have been recurring over the last 5 years.

            If you are interested in reading but haven’t already read the article, I can post the link again.

        • Freddy66

          Wonderful

        • GuestForToday

          Apologies if you’ve already addressed this question elsewhere: I’m wondering how you feel about the conflation on this blog of your role as a climate scientist and your role as a weather forecaster. The former, of course, is well-established, entails longer term trends, and is nuanced, complex, and solidly grounded in a larger scientific conversation.

          Not that the latter role isn’t all of that, necessarily, but… weather forecasting is a bit less certain, I think it’s fair to say.

          My question is, then, is there a worry that the relative capriciousness of shorter term weather forecasts could undermine people’s faith in the serious reality of climate change? Put simply: these kinds of weather forecasts can be wrong (not saying this one is wrong, but there’s a
          chance, at least, that it could be). So, from a science communication perspective, is there a worry that assuming a role as a weather forecaster, and being wrong (say, like many forecasts were wrong about the NorCal winter last year being relatively dry), might undermine people’s faith in longer term climate models (which are based on something much more thorough and certain than short term forecasts)? To sum up: might shorter term forecast misses cause people to just say something like, “well, see, he was wrong about that, so what does he know about the climate.”

          • Pfirman

            Lot’s a lot of words to just say haters gonna hate.

          • GuestForToday

            Ha fair point.

            I also want to say that I appreciate that you’re the only one who reads–and comments–this far down in the comment section.

          • I tend to go down the line of comments at the end of a day if I can especially if I’ve tuned out. Not so much now though with disqus replies going to my email inbox though.

          • Pfirman

            Eternally catching up. I see I wrote Lot’s instead of That’s.

    • jstrahl

      Amazing, you have to go to the Olympic Peninsula and Washington north of Seattle to find 2+’ accumulations over 16 days in the middle of Winter.

    • alanstorm

      Well, without a major turnaround, we will see an even worse fire situation, red flag warnings for every offshore wind event with increasingly frequently combinations of those rare conditions that lead to urban firestorms.
      Not to mention damage to the ecosystem, forests, streams, etc.
      MJM- Mid January Miracle!

    • Charlie B

      Why anyone gives this a thumbs up is lost on me.

    • Tuolumne

      I donut like this at all.

  • Unbiased Observer

    Had a dream that I was out of state and checked my weather station to see that I received 6″ of rain in one day! Then I woke up to realize that the models are virtually dry as far as the eye can see. I think at this rate many places in CA will have received more rain this summer than they will this “wet season”.

  • matthew

    Let the water wars commence…

    LOS ANGELES (AP) — Nestle, which sells Arrowhead bottled water, may have to stop taking millions of gallons of water from Southern California’s San Bernardino National Forest because state regulators concluded it lacks valid permits.

    The State Water Resources Control Board notified the company on Wednesday that an investigation concluded it doesn’t have proper rights to about three-quarters of the water it withdraws for bottling.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    This blog is about to go crazy now that Daniel comments on that we’re back in RRR territory. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1734c35e381dca848fc5c3615970ce0352b03450583105cfaaa88159335157c3.gif

    • Charlie B

      A Colin Kaepernick sighting?

      • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

        James Kaepernick.

  • Drought Lorde

    All HAIL the return of our mighty god, the RRR. He has returned to save us from the wicked wetness! I shall be his prophet. Praise to his glory. Let us all bask in his eternal sunshine!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Osse (Redondo)

    For those of you who got photos of the launch yesterday evening, see comment and request below from the editor of the Launch Alert list/site.

    FALCON 9 IRIDIUM-4 SUCCESSFULLY LAUNCHED

    From: 30th Space Wing Public Affairs, http://www.vandenberg.af.mil

    VANDENBERG AIR FORCE BASE, Calif. – Team Vandenberg supported the successful
    launch of the fourth Iridium mission on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Space
    Launch Complex-4 here Friday, Dec. 22, at 5:27 p.m. PST.

    Col. Michael S. Hough, 30th Space Wing commander, was the space launch
    commander.

    “What a way to end the year with the fifth Falcon 9 launch carrying the
    fourth set of Iridium satellites. This mission proves that Team V provides
    assured access to space and we do it safely and securely,” said Hough. “It
    goes without saying that we can’t accomplish this without great mission
    partners like SpaceX.”

    EDITOR’S COMMENTS

    I’ve been watching Vandenberg launches since November 1967. Tonight’s launch
    was the most impressive one I’ve ever seen. It was spectacular.

    If any of you obtained professional quality photos of the launch, please
    send them to launch-alert-editor@earthlink.net. I may want to publish your
    image on my Space Archive web site.

    Brian Webb, Editor

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      What made the visual so stunning was the launch time. It went off at ~5:40PM as the last vestiges of sunlight lite the horizon. The launch rocket exhaust/contrail was brilliantly lite from below as its stages separated. We witnessed it from a shopping mall parking lot in Long Beach. Really amazing!

  • Charlie B

    It appears that my fearless Squaw Valley December snow prediction of 110″ will fall about 103″ short.

    • Shane Ritter

      My prediction of 135″ in Dec. feels like it might be a season total now. Lol. The only comfort I have is our reservoirs are full. So at least fly fishing won’t suffer this summer.

      • Bartshe

        maybe a multi-year total

        • For big bear, yes. Squaw? No.

          • Bartshe

            If Triple R back, possibly yes.

          • IF. Massive, size-of-the-melted-Arctic if.
            Nobody knows. Case in point – did anyone predict last year? I seem to recall “nope”.

          • Pfirman

            Nope, and nope looks like hope with the sky pointing bit cut off.

        • Shane Ritter

          Multi century?

      • Tuolumne

        But did you say *which* December? 😉

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Maybe the ARKstorm will save us, but then it will destroy us in another way being the worst flood disaster the US has ever seen by far. California is a nice place.

    • Pfirman

      From fearless to feckless. Been there so many times.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • BP (Ventura)

    Check this out brethren. The entire Fairgrounds and Beach parking closed due to our Tomas fire Fire Crews, one guy out on a Saturday, yes it’s flat but it’s Saturday.!! Thanks to firefighters throughout the State…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0f73361655fb41275a752a1e5af43fc811299e739cd43135e0213f092eff0dd.jpg

  • GFS got interesting, everybody cross fingers for the new Euro rendering! Picks up a good amount of action 220-240 hours out

    • Yolo Hoe

      Amazing — as soon as the Drought Lorde is unmasked, the RRR loses strength in the models — coincidence?

      By the way Shane, much appreciated your cameo on the board — it added
      levity to the painful challenge we’re facing into

      • Shane Ritter

        Gotta have fun in face of unending drought! Lol. I’d love Drought Lorde to be proven the fool. The worrisome thing is, he’s been right so far. The models keep showing storms, then 7-10days our, poof, their gone.

        • alanstorm

          I guess I was hard on you.
          Sorry, man.
          Oct 9 really flipped me out
          Drought Lorde R.I.P.

        • inclinejj

          Straight to the pit of misery! Dilly Dilly!

      • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

        I probably know who Drought Lorde is. Hint: he loves to troll on Twitter. 😛

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          It’s Shane Ritter unless he has a Twitter.

      • jstrahl

        Premature pronouncement, IMHO. One good model run way ahead does not make for a pattern shift.

        • Agreed, I think there are promising signs ahead. We are quite overdue as it is.

          • jstrahl

            Hope you are right, but “overdue” has no meaning except in reference to history, and as Barshe as pointed out, as have i and others, history may be quite meaningless at this point. Still hoping.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      agreement from the GFS too 🙂

      • I’m referring to the GFS – right now the event on Jan 2nd looks good, GEM only goes to Jan 1st BUT it does also show the sagging we need that the GFS is now picking up on. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cbadeaa603c20f441173acec1f312e09b9733f966608590cee355315fdc23f86.gif

        • thlnk3r

          Way to far out. The teleconnection (PNA, EPO) setup that is forecasted for this time period is back to what it was a Month ago. QBO is also deep in negative territory. I would expect Cold/Dry to continue. Go outside and enjoy the weather.

          • 240 hours is not too far out, 384 is. I’m not looking at anything OTHER than the Jan 2nd event plotted above. GFS can and does pick out events like this all the time, and while yes the failure rate is high, I point out the feature on the 2nd because it is most definitely something to keep an eye on. And look at what we have here, some model agreement! Check above.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            The QBO was also negative (easterly) in 1995-96, which started out quite dry (not as dry as this year), but we got some decent rain in late January, February, and March.

  • AllHailPresidentSkroob

    I for one am looking forward to the nice pleasant weather that is coming to go along with the nice pleasant weather we already have. I don’t see the point of futzing over every single model run multiple times per day… Whether or not the RRR is truly back as Daniel suggests below seems to be a bit premature but what do I know…? Either way, our water storage is in solid shape for now…

    I think the broader context here that requires everyone to take a step back beyond a few days/months, is it “feels” like CA’s climate is changing and doing so rather rapidly. Much faster than nature, or perhaps even man, can adjust to. It’s getting dryer, there is less snow, and our entire water infrastructure is built on abundant snow year after year…

    People talk about massive infrastructure projects that could produce thousands of jobs and I seriously think one of those projects needs to be transporting Great Lakes water to the SW US via massive tunnel/aqueduct systems stretching from IL to CA/AZ… Just some food for thought on that… We know the CO river system can’t keep up with current demand even in “normal” years…

    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Good idea. If we can build pipelines for tar sands, we can do the same thing with fresh water. Lake Mead isn’t going to last another 5 years at least, especially in this unsustainable environment.

      • AllHailPresidentSkroob

        Yeah as I’m sure most of you are well aware here, the allocation of the CO river basin was calculated during the 10 wettest years as the “normal” which was “okay” for 50+ years but now the population has swelled to the point where there simply isn’t enough water coming down the CO to meet even the original agreement…

        People take water for granted, even someone like myself… That arrogance is going to be devastating someday, probably in my lifetime…

      • Tuolumne

        The difference is that oil is far more valuable than water. Just because it’s physically possible to get water from there to here doesn’t mean it makes economic sense. As you increase costs by going farther and farther and over more and more mountain ranges, at some point desalinization done right here will be cheaper.

      • JOHN CURTIS

        No we didn’t. The moon landing was a hoax.

        • Tuolumne

          As proven by the many experts on YouTube, my go-to source for science and engineering.

          • JOHN CURTIS

            Yes. Very reliable and routinely subjected to the scientific method.

      • matthew

        Fighting the inevitable. Agriculture in CA will need either need to change dramatically or whither away completely. No amount spent on pipelines will change that in the long haul.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Great Lakes? Unfeasible. From the Pacific NW, maybe.

      • AllHailPresidentSkroob

        It’s been discussed before and while expensive and technically challenging, the only real “hard” part is getting the water over the Rockies… Now that’s a seriously difficult engineering challenge but one that is absolutely doable with current technology. The amount of fresh water in the great lakes would allow for not only the desert SW to get the water it needs but perhaps for the midwest to tap into some of it as the Ogallala aquifer continues to decline…

        • jstrahl

          And the energy to pump the water over the Rockies will come from? We’re entering a fossil fuels crisis as well, Peak Oil and all that.

  • The GFS crystal ball just got less cloudy – GEM picking up on Jan 2nd event but Euro is now in range to show it. Fingers crossed this trends up:
    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017122312/california/ecmwf_t_precip_california_240.png

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    I wish we could wake up one Christmas morning to see this image in the 8-14 day forecast. Do you believe in Santa?

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/archives/short_range/2014/12/05/610prcp.20141205.fcst.gif

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      December 11 – 15, 2014. The one week in the winter of 2014, 2015 where we got a great storm.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Old cactus is not in a Christmas mood this years. Gifts will be given but what is inside will not be a treat.

  • FR44

    Today is Festivus.

    Let us air our arid grievances.

    Feats of strength to follow tonight.

  • Current play-by-play(wink)
    NWS CPC isn’t on board, but GFS Operational long range looks sexcellent. GEM Operational not in range yet but shows the right signals. Euro below just barely picking up on it so more time needed. But the GEM Ensemble? That’s a real place for “Hope — Hope in the face of difficulty. Hope in the face of uncertainty. The audacity of hope! In the end, that is God’s greatest gift to us…A belief in things not seen. A belief that there are better days ahead.”
    ? Barack Obama
    https://imgur.com/5uLO4m1

    • jstrahl

      Looks sexcellent? Not without fishnets. 🙂

      Looks better than nothing, at least we get some rain, though 1.5 inches in 16 days in the midst of the rainy season would normally be considered average at best. I’ll look at the GEM ensembles.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        There’s GEM ensembles? Where?

        • I POSTED the GEM ensemble above!

          • jstrahl

            Thanks, the chart says GEPS but i gather it’s the same thing.

          • Yeps, although I’ve never seen REPS:
            “The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS), covering North America and also having 20 members plus control, runs out 72 hours.”

      • You’re already looking at them…

  • inclinejj

    My Weather Prediction: It will start storming when the Cap’n is back!

    • PRCountyNative

      With “20 to life” that could be a while…

    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Okay here’s the deal, Cap’n has stated several times that he gets released today the 23rd, Festivus! It is time to invoke his great Mojo and get this season turned around. Come on Cap’n, post up. Your WW brethren await.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Another interesting climate fact from my favorite city to visit:

    NWS Las Vegas:

    Dry conditions are expected in Las Vegas through the weekend which will bring the dry stretch to 102 days on Sunday. This would break the previous record of 101 consecutive days with no rainfall set in 1944. Also…if McCarran airport does not reach 32F by 12/31…it would be the first calendar year to have no freezing temperatures since record keeping began in 1937.

    • Fairweathercactus

      1944-1945 Was a bad year for So Cal as well.

    • PRCountyNative

      Just a coincidence.

  • White Lightning

    Even though this weather is boring, it’s a good time to take a step back and appreciate weather’s unpredictability and uniqueness. Imagine if every year had the same pattern to it and we all got the same amount of rain or snow that we needed. That’s what would really be boring. There would be no point to this blog. This anomaly of dryness that we’re experiencing right now is what makes weather so great. Every single year and every single day the atmosphere is different. Every single second the atmosphere is changing. Eventually this pattern will shift, and we’ll get some excitement. But for the time being, we’re just gonna have to wait it out while somebody else gets all the fun.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      I lived in Hong Kong for 3 years, a city that receives 100 inches of rain annually. During the summers I spent there there would be endless monsoonal downpours, sometimes lasting for multiple days. It fun at first but after a while it’s predictability takes away all the excitement. Plus occasionally there can be close encounters with typhoons, ranging from disruptive to devastating.

      I completely agree with your statement. Aside from places like Crescent city and Rag Dump and the high sierras, the relative rarity of exciting weather in a large part of California, makes the weather here so exciting.

    • janky

      If the weather was snowy in Tahoe and we were guaranteed 1-2’ of new snow every week every year in Dec/Jan/Feb/Mar, I wouldn’t complain one bit 🙂

  • matthew
  • molbiol

    Since things look uneventful here, and for general weather and computer model enthusiasts, both the CMC and GFS ensembles are hinting at the first major Nor’easter of the season right on time for New Years weekend. The event is still days away and the potential track of the surface low (red circled area) is still up in the air but something to keep a look out for…..these storms are notoriously hard to forecast since a small 50 mile error can be the difference between a crippling blizzard or nothing but a few flurries. NWS New York has gotten a lot of heat and criticism on social media in the past when a bust occurs. Given model struggles, its something for the GFS/ECM/CMC addicts on this board to monitor just for fun. One thing seems certain, there will be plenty of cold air in place meaning that precip will be predominantly snow…..Hope everyone has a nice holiday/Christmas weekend

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/14536d2f25783b38d8a98f299c7b5d395bd560391a3d8b94b96afaba3efdc461.png

    • Jim Yerkes

      Also have been following the possible nor’easter towards the end of next week. Grew up in Philly have several memories of some great storms. March 1962 the great easterly gale and the blizzard of 1978 had 14 inches of snow in Philly and near 40 inches in parts of interior New England and eastern New York State. I recall winds on the cape gusted to near 80 mph. I follow. Wxrisk.com on Facebook guy named Dave Tolleris out of Virginia. The blizzard of feb 1978 had an enormous high centered over Quebec and the storm crawled up the coast as it was blocked for awhile from moving rapidly northward and actually did a loop around Long Island

  • Fairweathercactus

    What an ugly day here. High clouds filling the sky and it is kind of warm. Clouds look almost lie a dirty brown color.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    CPC pulling for a wet 6th to 19th for NorCal. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif Discussion says. “The various dynamical model solutions are nonetheless in reasonably good agreement with enhanced ridging off the eastern seaboard and anomalous troughing somewhere over western North America. Residual cold air is depicted over parts of the Northeast early in the period, as well as over the northern High Plains. Above-normal temperatures are most likely over the southern tier of the country, while odds favoring above-normal temperatures over Alaska are more modest this week due to the uncertain evolution of the upper-level circulation.

    Above-median precipitation is likely over much of the western CONUS from California into the Rocky Mountains, ahead of warm Pacific flow.”

    • jstrahl

      Nice if it happens, but don’t bet on it.

    • CHeden

      Beat me to it. Looks promising…just like the last run a week ago.

  • Freddy66

    The 18z is trolling us again just after New Years…rain for the whole state. Lol

    • There’s more to than that, anal. coming right up….

      • Dry Bones

        Analysis… must… not… say… it… must… not… make… joke… remember… means analysis…

      • Jon Bartel

        Can’t wait!

    • jstrahl

      More like sprinkles for the whole state, a possible very modest rain event for SoCal around the 5th. And that’s the good run.

    • This is the GFS ENSEMBLE Trend. Several runs of ensemble show some waffling but then it comes back.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a0bd86f6471e89a15d6df3c9c7ed42af0341d5452d39eb12c96c57a79b6025c.gif

    • This is the GFS OPERATIONAL – note the SoCal blue *alls breakout.
      The shorter term operational isn’t really a troll, it’s in line with two other models at this point, ensembles AND operational.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f03cdfb8d7ede5f7b69131aa6cb76d0c8aab9ec31eda887d424d797433450f24.gif

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Long range ensembles had been hinting at the ridge shifting North and West enough to open the door for some storms in early January. It may be helped out some by favorable MJO action.

      Of course, 3-4 weeks ago long range ensembles also hinted at some storms for the last week of December and we saw how that turned up. Maybe the MJO will help this time.

      Something’s gotta give. Even during our worst seasons we managed to get a decent storm or two. It would be incredible if SoCal gets shut out all Season except for the occasional .07″ from the tail end of dying systems.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It would be unheard of if Socal gets shut out the entire season. 2006-07 came the closest to that, but we still got some rain even though it was a very boring season overall.

      • MJNOOOOOO!!!!

      • jstrahl

        Even more incredible if CentCal and NorCal get shut out the rest of the season except for that occasional minimal.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic
    • Bartshe

      What could possibly go wrong?

    • alanstorm

      AccuWeather??
      That’s like putting KFC in charge of the FDA.

      • CHeden

        Or, Scott Pruitt in charge of the EPA.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      So sick of having the services that affect the commons being offered up to the rich donors. Money grubbing capitalists have no business running service organizations that have no political or money making ax to grind. What’s next? Putting gun manufacturers and ammo makers in charge of police departments? Oh wait….

    • Pfirman

      And is he not a denier also?

  • matt
  • Hollow Scene (The Desert)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • Clever!

      • Pfirman

        The only one I understood was the car wash. What were those others, especially the ice in the john?

        • Scap

          Same here. Oh and the putting out the summer time deck chairs.

          • Pfirman

            He only put out one chair. That is like only washing your car windows. But what a view he had…..and no deck railing, yikes.

    • janky

      Slight chance of a snowflake today in Tahoe

    • matthew

      Time to drain the gas from my snow blower and put it into storage.

      • BURN the snowblower with said gas, that way we are sure to get snow as you will need it as soon as it is a smoking ash heap.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Joining the other sunset posters by adding some of my own I took this evening. We’re in Long Beach for Christmas and this afternoon we were down at the Queen Mary area. Took a harbor cruise just as the sun was setting and got some spectacular shots. Enjoy!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8c6d4c2adef18989ac9e0e444e9aa4105ec4fd59b5b2208cfbff3fda6503ae40.jpg

  • In a quest for more knowledge, I have found a product not offered by Tropical Tidbits, a Canadian ensemble 6-hr precip 384hr chart. Behold:
    https://imgur.com/JpikxQr

    • Rusty Rails

      HYPE!

    • sezwhom

      I just looked at it through 384 and it showed nothing for Central and SoCal. What did show up was 2 mm at best. When you do the conversion, you’ll see it ain’t much.

  • Another product hiding on the intraweb is the NAVGEM Ensemble. Not GEM, NAVGEM, the US Navy product. It has the notion that moisture will splatter all over the PNW over the next couple weeks and give us a few drops to celebrate over. https://imgur.com/sdGbXII

  • Charlie B

    Didn’t some really smart guy who died in1727 and had a reputation as being somewhat of a jerk ( probably because he invented calculus… along with Leibniz, but independently of course …just to torment future generations of students) say that for every action there was an equal and opposite reaction? Maybe last year was the action and this year is the reaction?

    • Pfirman

      Leibniz was the guy who said this is the best of all possible worlds, so who is the jerk? He might have been trying to be sly.

  • Charlie B

    According to the Alaska Climate Research Center, see ice increased “only” (emphasis in original) by 1.89% the past week.

  • Charlie B

    Are things in Alaska normal? Well, Kotebue is a town of 3,000 people in western Alaska 33 miles above the arctic circle. It has a classified dry subarctic climate. It averages 40″ of snow a year. Right now the snow DEPTH is sitting at 55″.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Sounds like the temperature is above normal with warmer moist air flowing northward that is enhancing their snowfall; in other words, the flow pattern is different than usual.

      • Charlie B

        Seems so, doesn’t it?

      • I wonder when scientists take ice core samples of areas in Greenland as an example, that they would show a remarkable change of the layers that signify years. Years of little snow falling would show a narrower band of ice meaning colder temps and warmer periods with wider bends of ice?

    • Pfirman

      That would be Kotzebue, and no, things are not normal, far from it.

      • Charlie B

        zzz. Sorry

  • Charlie B

    But not all of Alaska is balmy. Northway in the east (figures) had a high of -21 and a low of -29. That is about 7 degrees below Normal. This community of 71 is famous for recording the highest barometric pressure outside of Siberia. In 1989 it reached 31.89″. And we think 30.50 is high.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Josh Groban, Remember When It Rained

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      And because, tomorrow night is Christmas eve.

      Mary, Did You Know? – Pentatonix

  • Osse (Redondo)

    It seems obvious to me that the “Man of the Year” is “The California Firefighter”. Astounding courage, dedication, and tenacity. I wish I had a magazine cover to put him on. (Although that’s not enough of an accolade of course.)

  • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

    There might be showers in the forecast for New Year’s Day. We’ll just wait and see…keep praying or we won’t see poppies this coming spring.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • MakeSoCalWetAgain (SMX)

      Could be December 31st, at this rate.

  • palmsprings

    From the SD forecast discussion this morning:

    “It looks like mother nature will continue to test the forecasters ability to write the same thing in a different way.”

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      They must be mad too about this dumbass ridge.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Not sure what was more disgusting the GFS 12z or seeing SKOl chants in Green bay last night. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/241b83a2c43f619b5a701a98ee0920a96aab9ba42bc3f7bdeefbcb93ab16359c.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      All the predictable gifts — including the perpetually enticing last frame

      • Kelley Rogers

        Life was better before I discovered the GFS…. I hate that thing.

    • Thor

      ‘Twas a thing of beauty…Skol.

  • THE CPC’s season drought outlook is showing drought returns to all parts of CA south of the bay area.

  • Bombillo1

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca2880e47d35a96aea48992aa9fa4c43e98d87a4c41a4f3267deea7ba143839b.png

    WU last night was showing nothing ( except for some 10% bet hedging every 6 days). This morning, highly unannounced, there is an 80% chance of rain at this instant. Dirty ridge reducing weather forecasting window to 5 hours. Never seen such an abrupt arrival and departure of rain chances.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Hopefully the dirty Ridge will get wet and dissolve

    • Kelley Rogers

      Do you live in Big Bend? We kayaked the Pit one year. That town is a trip LOL…

  • Harpo (Chico)

    Water level in Lake Oroville has dropped back below 700′ and continues downward. More than 200′ below capacity; 114′ below the bottom of the spillway gates. Inflow is around 1000 cfs. Outflow is being kept at around 2200 cfs in order to try and keep the lower Feather R. and the SF Bay alive.

    • My best guess is the release is flow is for the salmon hatchery right now. IIRC the lake level was down to about 650′ in the 2015-2015 WY with release amounts under 1000 cfs. Worst case scenario for CDW would be not enough capacity with an ArKstorm type of event and using the e-spillway. They do NOT want to use the spillway this year.

  • Jan 1/2 still showing up in GEM as fun for NorCal. GFS is all over the place, Euro is in between, however if we track GEM performance with last storm then we should take the activity 160-180 hours out seriously, it’s not a dump but better than dust. If it doesn’t show up in Euro by 144 hours out then we can pepper it with existential questions 🙂 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88ffe04c6ac43a72e717783090b3de51d1c4959d0ffc5d60a7e790c23edc5d81.gif

    • Kelley Rogers

      Never trust a weather model LOL

    • FR44

      If it says dry, I believe it true. If it says wet, I believe it false.

    • jstrahl

      “Not a dump,” Generous way of saying “not much.” Yeah, better than ZERO.