Strong storm across NorCal today; SoCal remains mostly dry

Filed in Uncategorized by on November 15, 2017 4,976 Comments

Intense burst of rain, wind likely across NorCal later today

A modest atmospheric river will be enhanced by a small surface low near North Coast. (NCEP via Scripps)

This will be a quick update (deadlines beckon). But the short, sharp burst of precipitation expected across NorCal later today is worth a brief discussion. This precipitation event was foreseen a week or more in advance by long-range weather models, but it’s only in the past 36 hours or so that it became clear that this would likely become a respectable storm for many of the urban areas near the I-80 corridor (including the Bay Area, Sacramento region, and even Lake Tahoe).

Why have expectations for this event been revised upward so sharply? A modest atmospheric river is currently aimed at the state, which will (slowly) sweep down the coast later tonight. But in general, an atmospheric river alone isn’t enough to produce heavy precipitation and strong wind outside of very specific mountain areas subject to dramatic “orographic enhancement.” For a significant storm in California’s lowlands, there needs to be some sort of “forcing mechanism” to generate upward vertical motion in the atmosphere and squeeze out all that water vapor present in even the most robust of atmospheric rivers. Until a couple of days or so ago, no such mechanism appeared to be in place–it looked like there would be a lot of water vapor transport but not much precipitation at the lower elevations. What changed? Now, a small surface low is expected to spin up later today west of the North Coast, bringing a burst of dynamic enhancement of the water vapor plume associated with this atmospheric river as it moves southward.

The Bay Area could experience pretty intense rainfall rates associated with cold front tonight. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This storm, while not enormous, could nonetheless end up being fairly impressive for a narrow corridor near the Bay Area. Rainfall totals may be somewhat uniformly distributed across the region; while 1-3 inches is not too impressive in the coastal hills, that’s actually quite a lot in the urban areas and inland valleys. Moreover, most of this rainfall will fall over the course of just 3-6 hours–meaning that precipitation intensity could be quite high for a time later this evening. With strong vertical motion near the cold front, I would not even be surprised to see some reports of lightning associated with the heavy rain tonight across NorCal. Winds may also become strong and gusty in the typical spots, and while this is unlikely to become a major windstorm, the first wind event of the season typically brings down a disproportionate number of tree limbs and power lines. (Sierra snow levels will be relatively high, though some snow will be possible toward the end of the event at or below pass level).

 

Significant risk of flash flooding/debris flows in wildfire burn areas

While a storm of the magnitude expected to blow through tonight typically would cause only minor urban/small stream flooding issues, the recent wildfire burn scars in Northern California (especially the North Bay Fire region, including the Tubbs Fire near Santa Rosa) are extremely susceptible to sudden water runoff, ash-laden debris flows, and subsequent flash flooding. The rainfall rates with tonight’s system will be quite high for at least a brief period, and there have not yet been any heavy rainfall events in this region since the devastating October fires. Thus, for this event in particular (and to some extent for the rest of winter), folks in these regions should be prepared for more sudden and extensive flood issues than would typically be experienced during similar storm events.

 

Mixed signals for second system next week

A strong & persistent blocking ridge will continue over the North Pacific near Alaska. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The models have been bouncing back and forth regarding the potential for a second system next week, which would likely take the form of a relatively weak but very warm atmospheric river with a subtropical tap. The instability in recent forecasts stems from the presence (and persistence) of a very high amplitude blocking ridge over the North Pacific over the past 30-40 days, and most forecasts suggest this will persist in some form for at least another 2-3 weeks. As previously discussed, downstream impacts over California can range from ridging (warm and dry) to deep troughing (cold and wet). At the moment, the “warm and dry ridging” still appears to be the more likely outcome (especially across SoCal), though that could change. For what it’s worth, both the GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently show a very warm and dry Thanksgiving across all of California next week.

Current indications are for a very warm and dry Thanksgiving across all of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

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  • weathergeek100

    Amazingly enough, last night’s ‘squall line’ managed to produce only 0.13 here in Emeryville. That’s surprising, considering the radar echoes looked beautiful offshore as the rain band was moving in. 0.32 storm total.

    Down south in California’s new Atacama desert, various places seem to be reporting anywhere from 0.00 to 0.01 out of this system. Lots of fog ahead of the front down there, as I experienced on my way to LAX after spending the holiday there. Fog drip is better than nothing, and it’s how the Atacama gets much of its moisture. So you see SoCal, your new climate does provide you some moisture. Might as well embrace it since this is the new normal. While the flora of the chaparral will continue to wither and die away, some cacti can survive this. Santa Ana winds interspersing with fog drip throughout the ‘wet’ season? I suppose it’s better than nothing!

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      We’ll still be here for moral support if the spigot shuts off later December ?.

  • Charlie B

    Exit polls indicate that Squaw Valley is reporting 7″ of new snow at 8200′. That brings the November total to 50″. Assuming they don’t get (or report) any more this month, that will mean that Yolo Hoe will win the contest, with a prediction of 48″. Call him “Carnac the Magnificent” if it holds. (I am holding out hope that a recount will up the total to my predicted 55″ but that looks unlikely.)
    December, anyone? The key here is to get closest to the reported number. I am doubling my November prediction to 110″. This might strike some as odd, but these are odd times, and as we move into the real snow season one good dump and two moderate storms can get me there. (BTW: my prediction method involves placing a bent coat hanger outside with string tying it to a snow shovel (looping around 3 times) and then the shovel is placed next to the dog dish. There is a piece of old speaker wire connected to the handle of the shovel which runs through the side kitchen window and then hooked into the back of the microwave. I then heat up a cup of chocolate milk for exactly 37 seconds. Then, I place a digital insta-read meat thermometer into the cup and whatever it reads is my prediction.)

    • Shane Ritter

      I’ll jump in the December contest, at 133″, 74 if which will fall the last 5 days of the month.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Thanks — I’m eagerly awaiting BA’s report — I’ll reveal my secret for predictive analytics once the totals are finalized

    • Nathan

      Hey buddy that’s MY forecasting system. Back off, patent protected!

    • matthew

      Total for December or cumulative for the season?

      • Charlie B

        Month only.

    • inclinejj

      I didn’t know this contest was going on! Oh well December is a couple days away.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Blame the disappearance of the Saturday storm on me. My wife and I are having our baby shower on Saturday afternoon outdoors in Atascadero and have done nothing but wish the rain away. I promise not to ever do it again.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      If you are talking about next Saturday, I’m not sure we can blame anyone for the disappearance of something that only exists in model output to begin with. Now on the other hand, if we were tracking an actual storm dropping down the coast, with rain being reported in San Luis Obispo, and the thing suddenly went “poof” and disappeared as soon as it got near your house, then we’d all have some choice words to say to you, mister!
      😉

  • Torrential drizzle last night left .07″ in the gauge. That is the total precip so far since October 1, compared to last years 2.72″ and .28″ in 2015.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    GFS and EC are singing very different tunes for next weekend, and the Canadian has it’s own ideas. If EC is just trolling SoCal again and GFS wins another round, we should all write some strongly worded letters to ECMWF headquarters. Address them to:

    ECMWF
    Shinfield Park
    Reading
    RG2 9AX
    UNITED KINGDOM

    ECMWF:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d896d675ff7c747c31ae3a1fb764efad0832a4fd2e65b1c1838994dc8474838c.png

    GFS:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cb2bb7bbc9d5a2a3246ecade28a46d38bb271311737682345380ac947e967ab.png

    CMC:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/13e0ed6f481c38f1e027ea85e863565d73af2a9eb4ca8e3d93fae0c55a8a979c.png

    • Taz & Storm Master

      am rooting for the ECMWF wish seems too be way more stable from one run too the next then the GFS is the 12z GFS droped the cold snap next weekend so there for am going with the ECMWF model wish i think is doing much better so far this season then the GFS has been

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I’m pulling for them too. However, the EC has previously shown decent rain events for SoCal a couple times already this season, only to back away and trend towards the GFS. It would be nice if the opposite happened here.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        I believe someone said the Euro has not done well so far this season…

    • Idaho Native

      I, for one, am taking solace in that it feels like the strongest storms we’ve received in the Bay Area this season popped up in the models just a couple days before they occurred.

    • weathergeek100

      Freaking Europeans!

    • Tom & Koyano Gray

      I dont pay much attention to either one, but does the ECM use algorithms based on North Atlantic outcomes? That could be problematic for eastern pacific, since they are no where near the same. Hell GFS is only marginally accurate trying that out, for anything south of Lat. 34, anyway..

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I’m not sure how the EC’s algorithms work, but last season it seemed to do better than the GFS within the 5-7 day window, while GFS would tend to pick something up in the long range, and then backtrack within the 5-7 day range, only to trend back to the original solution, but by that time, the EC had been running with it already. This season has been quite different (at least for the W Coast) in terms of model skill. I should point out that the Ensembles for both models look less like the EC Operational run’s depiction, so it will be interesting to see what today’s 12z EC run looks like.

        • Tom & Koyano Gray

          Thanks, that’s interesting. Nice to know.

    • I keep seeing radical (to me) changes in long range (30day) MJO forecasts. These can be steady at least for a week before taking on a shift yet recently they have been one day looking great next day uh-oh then ugley then back to pretty good. As we have discussed elsewhere there is forcing from the tropics that reach the extra-tropics (us). Also seeing the Nina develop and the atmospheric teleconnections it’s safe to say that we need to look at MJO phase space differently than we would in a Nino.
      It’s safe to say atmospheric patterns in the NH will rule over our domain this winter. MJO often prods these patterns.

      • jstrahl

        NH?

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I think Howard agrees with you on that.
        Overall, he is not very enthusiastic regarding what he sees of this season so far.

        “This may not be as fun a winter to forecast from a distance, as long range forecasts will not be as reliable as compared to last winter. The MJO will be our friend this winter as stronger incursions into the Western Pacific will help to break down or retrograde stagnant, large scale blocky hemispheric patterns, that may develop for the winter of 2017/2018.”

        http://mammothweather.com/2017/11/27/chilly-upper-low-was-exiting-the-sierra-crest-this-mid-morning-while-wrap-around-precip-began-a-few-more-inches-is-possible-this-morning-short-wave-ridging-is-on-the-move-and-will-build-over-t/

        • jstrahl

          To add what comes right before the section you quoted.

          “About the only teleconnecting anomaly that is in our favor is the warm SSTA pool in the Bering Sea. If the Bering Sea was cool, I believe that we would remain ridged up more often than not, a good part of the winter.

          The PDO is still in the cool phase, that argues for troughing along the west coast so there are some positive teleconnections that are working for us this winter. However, the over lying base state of a some what stronger La Nina and the -phase of the QBO will be both fighting/weakening west coast storms more often than not for the “Central and Southern West Coast” this winter. There will be several storms that will split and weaken that will be forecasted to be stronger”

        • IMO MJO needs to be in right phase at right time…and with a -PNA already in place. IRT the western pacific stronger incursions and forcing: in a Nino yes…-QBO Nina no.

  • Dry Bones

    Looks like we got about 0.04” in north OC. Everything was wet between there and Long Beach as I drove to work. Not very wet, but a little. It seems to sneak in during the early morning hours, and always wraps up before the sun comes up.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    2 more days of GOES-16 awesomeness for the W Coast. Then it gets moved into GOES East’s slot.

    https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/935207379607711746

  • jstrahl

    After a gust of wind and a few drops right after midnight in central Berkeley, i went to sleep. Woke up at 2AM to find wet streets, .16 inches new in the gauge. That fits with Weather Geek’s report from Emeryville, as well as WU’s North Berkeley 81 station near me. Total of .37 inches from the “storm” (are we at the point where a third of an inch is called a storm?). 3.45 inches for the month. If this is it for November, i’ll finish the month +.79 inches, down .13 inches for October/November together. December is shaping up scorched dry, though. Starting to feel like 1989, which had the same calendar as this year..

    • mogden

      0.86″ from this one in the Redwood City foothills, but I’m only at about 3″ for the month, so you got me there.

    • inclinejj

      Actually take a look at the North Bay they had good rain. I had good rain in Pacifica.

    • Tom & Koyano Gray

      certainly going to be something to watch for our weather.

      • Taz & Storm Master

        why would you say that ?

        • Tom & Koyano Gray

          Well, sort of, kinda. The evidence is not always that clear, but these volcanoes can pump a lot of ash into the upper atmosphere which may influence rainfall. Frinstnace 1980, when Mt St Helen blew up, following winter we had 150% of normal rainfall in San Diego, but that was also the during a 3 year wetter than normal stretch. When Pinatubo erupted 1991 we had a wetter than normal winter 19″ in January alone, caused a flood in the Tijuana river. THe most stark case was way back in 1883, Krakatoa, erupted, the following winter Southern California got over 21 inches, on the coast 24 -26 in the mountains, the record.

        • Tom & Koyano Gray

          Possible i guess. Could also mean a more rain in the winter.

  • matt

    Becare ful driving through high desert Lancaster Palmdale areas lots of blowing dust and dirt. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed29ec2e6a092acdd9272f9cfe07647adc0f26a1494c4c0759062cd623b78178.jpg

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    12z Euro just came in. It’s trending towards the GFS. Put your hand over your heart and play that Lee Greenwood song. ‘Merica is going to win another round!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f7bc9b6806ed7dd055dd813fbee4661f8248b14f2812ec2fccf7e80df07e377.png

    • Run after run after run of fun and now this shocker comes to stun our buns.
      Sierra snow is good but Big Bear must quaking in its boots – temps depicted are just on the fringe of being cold enough to make snow, so this failure will weigh heavily upon their Christmas operations, as if they weren’t on edge enough:
      http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017112712/california/ecmwf_t2m_california_144.png

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        It’s weird, cause Ensembles seem to keep SoCal near seasonal averages for a while in December. They could use some below-average temps for sure.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c154f8cee341545b671718535914e730c83d94100b02df16a1f8872797b637d3.png

        • Models struggling to cope with their existence due to all the weight of unknown factors bearing down on them? Quick check the Euro’s receipts for a mid life crisis Ferrari purchase!
          Would it be factually accurate to say that the conditions we have now are truly new territory? The anomalous Arctic heat should keep SoCal up at night… literally, as it’s hard to sleep in sweat. I’ve done that in an open air treehouse in the Yucatan jungle. The sweat doesn’t evaporate, it just accumulates on you in bed…bleh.

          • jstrahl

            Glad we agree. I wonder why we pay so much attention to the models (the weather models) in this forum. Better than keeping track of the ‘Niners, i guess.

          • The socal screwup was in the GFS momentarily however the for the past 8+ runs Euro was saying socal rain and snow – this is the first real walking back of that, and if the next run of the euro shows wet, then today’s run is a hiccup. Hoping thats the case, lots of 0’s down there. Like these:
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/404336630f85048dec27da104ec9d7f0581d2304cebc97f2e32229a554dec611.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e11face32b71a0b1be97093daf1f838662bfe656d1d610415a780cd59163b231.jpg
            Lol @ surface conditions unknown. BS, you just don’t want to write “Dirt”

          • inclinejj

            Ahem…..The weather models are much less depressing!

          • better to be an optimist than an oh-the-models-are-wrong-I’m-popping-out-my-cyanide-tooth!
            I suggest the following data metric – the further South you are, the less happy you are if you like H2O. Most people in Tahoe are not bummed out over rain/snow, stuff like DUI’s and housing availability weigh heavily on their mind, yet for Santa Barbara…oh wait same problems ok back to the drawing board ha.

          • jstrahl

            I’m not far south at all. Reality is that we’re basically at normal but things for December look VERY dry for most of the state, not just SoCal.

    • jstrahl

      Maybe i shouldn’t have bad-mouthed the previous run.

  • Nathan

    Arrived in SAN from SJC to very heavy drizzle; soaked streets and sopping wet dirt everywhere. Nice surprise.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Got a whopping 0.02″ this morning, bringing my season total to 0.03″ since Oct 1, and 0.05″ since May 7th…………DILLY DILLY !!!!!

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Dilly Dilly

  • Fairweathercactus

    The 12Z GFS went back to nearly zero rain and keeps the best cold air into Nevada.

  • Picked up a whopping 0.08 of rain last night.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Really? Same here.

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • I don’t know how high this eruption is now (3000m)? BIG ones get way way up there.

      • I think Agung is just getting started according to the information I’ve seen – “thousands of meters up in the sky”(sky TV), and the crater is now filling up with magma, the amount of smoke belching forth looks to be sizable, doing some Satellite Anal. right now, going to post an animation I’m capturing right now.

        • Jon Bartel

          Please mean “analysis”… please?

          • Dry Bones

            No, the other thing, I want to know how that works.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Pinatubo’s plume made it as high as 30km, which is pushing 100k feet. Compare this photo of Pinatubo to the current images of Mt Agung. Agung doesn’t look quite as impressive (yet) but it may just be warming up for the main event.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f7fd0b7f9d84e1e762fa1da3ba53b92b355a1910759cc21aa69caf961afce0c.jpg

        • inclinejj

          What was Mt Saint Helens? I remember when we were on volcano watch before it blew.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            That is Mt Pinatubo. Mt St Helens was a hiccup in comparison.

    • CHeden

      The tropopause in Agung’s part of the world is around 16-17km high this time of year. In order for SO2-based aerosols to have any noticeable effect, they would have to be injected past this height…and for a significant period of time. So far, nothing even close from Agung.

  • Patrick from Stockton

    I checked my rain gauge this morning and saw .27 inches from the rain over night last night. Not bad considering we got nothing out of the first wave…I could hear it come down pretty hard at times this morning.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Got .08″ in my house last night. It’s not impressive, but it’s not a bust. 😀

    Now back to the “new normal”: Dry weather and sunshine. This weekend’s system is also looking grim for SoCal. Sad. At least the temps will be more seasonable same time next week.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I wouldn’t use the term “grim” on potential rain chances for SoCal next weekend. EC is still trending wet keeping the storm off-shore while the GFS has gone drier with an inside slider.

      • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

        WU and Accu are both predicting something Saturday. We’ll see.

  • Tyler Price (Seaside)

    It rained sooooo hard last night and lasted hours i got well over an inch from last nights gran finale!! What an epic finale to a storm the nest ive ever seen! I mean it litereally was dumping buckets and kept up for a long time my house was in perfect placement for the heaviest amd longest lasting rain!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Nice. I wish the my area could have this amount of rain. It feels like forever since the last big storm here.

      • Tyler Price (Seaside)

        It will come eventually this year probably december

        • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

          Or somewhere in 2018.

    • jstrahl

      Nice. Much better than in the central Bay.

    • I read the PDF a few weeks ago and I got more lost than I thought I was going to. Might it be possible to pretend you are a guest professor at a junior college and take us through it without the ‘flight response” of seeing some of those calculations?

      • Darin

        ELI15? 🙂

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    SoCal, GFS sees nothing but tumbleweeds in the long range. D:

    • thlnk3r

      Correct. It’s called La Nina. Btw, you’re forgetting the “hype” words in your posts …..

      Record-shattering heat will bring tumbleweeds with catastrophic effects!!!

      • “La Nina, detonated by global warming brings record-shattering heat with catastrophic effects as far-reaching as the common tumbleweed”

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          You failed to include “unprecedented”. 😛

          • Where do you want me to insert it? 🙂

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            brings UNPRECEDENTED record-shattering heat with catastrophic..

            ^ Right theeeerrrreee

          • I coulda stuck in three places, ‘ya know…. 🙂

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Anywhere’ll do. Maybe all 3?

          • LOL. Maybe 4 since we seem to have been setting precedents all year. 5 if you want to also make a case for genetically modifying tumbleweeds somewhere in the article. With the usual disclaimers at the end of course.

        • thlnk3r

          Oh this one totally destroys my version. Well done! and yes “unprecedented” was missed 😉

  • Just took another look at the Euro…what @disqus_dphoPLUDJ7:disqus posted is slightly ahead of things, as it was grabbed before the run finished rendering. The action for SoCal still shows up, however…some changes.
    162-192 hours is when it takes place, mostly Mex and SD. that could just as easily shift North. SoCal H2O has been portended for over 8 runs, so reach for the ‘Bars after the 00Z is out, if you’ll still need them – it’s anyone’s guess what level of shifty sagginess we’ll get this far out. My buddy skied Kirkwood today, said there is a foot of COLD powder up top, nobody there…said wall was opening today.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03e91cfa7bc2813b738638b30757bf1ffe815fefddd161846ca1322bbc7cc299.gif

  • Bombillo1

    1.95 for this system. We are 14.75 for November, better than last year’s November, which deserves noting. October ’16 was ridiculous so overall rain this season is off last year’s pace considerably. 50 mi N of Redding.

  • Okay this wasn’t easy to make, but here’s the past several hours of VIS satellite imagery over Bali – it’s dark but has LLTV capabilities, Agung isn’t showing any injection of particulates into the upper atmosphere yet on that scale. Yet.
    Edit-That didn’t work, converted it to GIF:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db3e64f76a1fe7f6be0eef7c247394395fbb873ccc294e9cbb40523006eed51b.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Taz & Storm Master

    YAWN the 18z is a copy cat of the 12z

    • jstrahl

      Keep waiting, and maybe you’ll get a run confirming your bias, giving you good news. 🙂

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      If its a copycat, it could be a trend…the start of agreement in the runs…not what we want, but agreement

  • Jon Bartel

    .07” in Atascadero last night… enough to settle the dust at least

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017112718/gfs_apcpn_namer_52.png Talk about an early winter dry spell, lol (excluding SoCal that as we all now has been dry)

    • Better than Mid-winter. 🙂

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      No rain colors for most of CA. Talk about a white Christmas.

      • thlnk3r

        (2) things I am only concerned about this season:

        1. Temperature. If it’s 85F and below I’m happy.
        2. No Santa Ana’s

        Done. You may continue posting bad news 😀

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          If we can’t get much in the way of rainfall, I’d at least like to see a cold snap around Christmas. 85° on Christmas just doesn’t cut it. 🙁

          • Pfirman

            Yeah, who wants to see Santa in shorts?

          • RunningSprings6250

            Not Mota…

          • Dry Bones

            I just want a few-month break from seeing your typical SoCal resident walking around in flip flops, basketball shorts, and a cut-off t-shirt. Make that guy put on pants and shoes and a jacket for Christmas!

          • Pfirman

            My brother lives in Huntington Beach for exactly the reason he can wear shorts and a t-shirt, except he prefers loafers. I can’t remember if I have ever him in long pants other than when my niece got married.

          • thlnk3r

            Wait….you don’t want a Christmas bbq by the pool while chillen in shorts and flip flops? But it’s SO CAL…

      • CHeden

        Pray for frost.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      CFS doesn’t show rain in the Bay Area until the 20th of December. Obviously take this with a grain of salt as it is the CFS

      • A few of us have been pointing to a dry period till late December without CFS help…take us with a grain of salt.

    • thlnk3r

      Impressive below average precipitation will continue for the Southern California scorched valleys. Aggressive ridge to move in!!

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5f7b37773aab1c1a64a52706e35a2607122626bbd859787e36a2e50b711269b.gif

  • molbiol

    If it were summer this would be a monsoon pattern…but (unfortunately) its almost December…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/173b851c4b37fa6de32b151e5d9ad226fa1ba107ba682af93e164bc93324d235.png

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Do you think this ridge may have any resemblance to the RRR? Also if this dry weather continues in SoCal through December the drought will start to worsen again.

      • celo

        Awesome….obviously not really

        • Pfirman

          It was quite profound. If dry weather continues a drought will worsen. Can’t argue with that.

      • thlnk3r

        If I had 10 cents for everything time I saw that three letter word “RRR” mentioned on this board, I would be rich….with a lot of dimes.

        • Jim Yerkes

          Replace the RRR with BRRR!! Lived in Minnesota for 7 years and cold was guaranteed! Minneapolis-Cold. Duluth-Brutal. International Falls -Insane. Just varying degrees of how much below zero you wanted to go !

    • tomocean

      Looks like both the GFS and ECMWF are still showing a storm for next weekend (in Nor Cal). Anything beyond that is just guessing, IMHO.

    • Jim Yerkes

      No doubt rigging will rein in the early part of December but of interest NWS out of Reno in there afternoon discussion package still forecasting a fairly decent storm for the weekend with much colder air next Monday 4 December. Always enjoy reading your updated blogs Daniel

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      “Curse you, La Nina!” – Jason Fox

  • Cap’n

    15 minutes of “free computer time” and I’m checking in with you bozos. Nice break from the models and the madness. My wife reports 1.8″ of rain yesterday with 2″ of snow this morning at the Donner Lake. First “measurable” snow but meager nonetheless. Maybe this is the winter when 8K becomes the new 6K? A 1K leap in one winter? I’m just glad she is watching my gauge; my big fear is that another gauge moves in while I’m away. Release date is December 23rd so you can bank on a big Christmas storm for the mountains, probably about it for the month. November total of 14.7″ rain and 2″ of snow, nice and wet and warm.

    • TheNothing

      I’m glad you can take a time out from dropping the soap to comment here?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Release date?

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Doin the time for his crime…

    • Nathan

      I can’t tell if you’re being serious or tongue-in-cheek but either way, welcome back!

    • PRCountyNative

      Lay back and enjoy it! The firewood is covered. Skiing looks lousy for the next month. Now you have a great excuse for not Xmas shopping. You’re not missing much. It’s good timing. You’re probably already used to the screaming hallucinating crazy people.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Hang in there brother. We miss your humor and reporting from Donner Lake. Remember, this too shall pass –

  • Freddy66

    What do the long range forecasts show for January since December is pretty much toast ? No rain in November and December for LA ?

    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      Los Angeles Downtown USC Station Winter 2017-2018 (Preliminary):

      November: 0.00
      December: 0.23
      January: 0:88
      February: 1.02
      March: 0.36
      April: 0.02

      Data is provisional and subject to revision.

      • Fairweathercactus

        I say Feb and March is to high but looks spot on.

        • Dry Bones

          Probably can take out all of January on account of the monster 3-week ridge we’ll get that month…right?

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I wouldnt bother with january models. Too far out

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i bet next year will see the floods return wish all ways seem too follow year like this

    • RunningSprings6250

      You are WAY too ahead of yourself – You have been downgraded to Storm Apprentice.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        StormGuesser
        StormMagic8
        StormPalmReader…

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Hearing the sound of cold north winds howling over the roof right now, and seeing the trees swaying. Feels winter-like even though the first rainstorm is still nowhere to be found.

    • Bombillo1

      “Winter” will now be recognized by low sun angles and shadow lengths . Rain/snow are no longer the benchmark.

  • RunningSprings6250

    The GFS won……

    No ? for you GFS!

    0.10” today brings the season to 0.23”.

    March – November 2017 now at 4.10”

    The last 9 months comes down to 2x days of decent rain, one in March and one in August.

    ??

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      If it’s any consolation, you got 10X more rain from this “storm” than I did. Literally.

  • Dogwood

    Never too early to start fantasizing about the parade of titanic pacific storms lashing the central coast during the Pebble Beach Pro Am first week of February 2018.
    Cus that helps pass the time.

    • CHeden

      Calif. already heading back into drought. We could use the rain.

    • PRCountyNative

      Yes please. Thank you for the reminder. Snow and heavy wind!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      The golf event [formerly called the Bing Crosby Clambake] is fun to watch on TV. Sometimes rain and sometimes sunny and warm. Beautiful part of California.

  • CHeden
  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Iss just flew overhead. Much brighter than I thought it would be. (Its the dot on the left)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e80e3c711a7be50d9670fa5db82591b00c645696cb7f55b311738214f08afb99.jpg

    • Howard Goodman

      Being up in the mountains I can see it better , they were waving as they went by

      • RunningSprings6250

        …..Being higher I can see that wasn’t waving they were doing….

        • PRCountyNative

          I saw it from Hwy 1 in Big Sur a few years back. Really high.

      • Tuolumne

        But did you wave back?

      • Unbiased Observer

        I’m surprised you could see through all of the rain clouds at your locale….

    • honzik

      Are you sure that’s the ISS? Because if it is what I think it is, I know what the cause of the high pressure blocking ridge over California is! 😉

      http://kaiju.wdfiles.com/local–files/wiki:mothra/mothra_1992_01.jpg

      • honzik

        In all seriousness, a good site for tracking the ISS or predicting Iridium flares is, as some of you know, http://www.heavens-above.com

        Just put in your lat-long and you’ll get annotated sky maps for these and other events.

    • matthew

      Was it going SW -> NE by any chance? I was just outside soaking in the hot tub and saw an unusually bright satellite.

  • Craig Matthews

    Finally got a real bone-a-fide goa cold frontal passage very late last night with sudden windshift to the nw followed by intense downburst of rain. Then the post frontal regime hit very early this morning with showers containing some small hail. Nice rainbow on the way to work. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d817123a3bce5901d7e07bdd2f1d951e961cbd09d5b48167dbd6d025f64956ee.jpg

    • PRCountyNative

      Just up the hill, it was an eerie 62 degrees early Sunday morning. Then this morning, same time, 42 degrees. Made me think that up on the higher peaks behind you, it may have snowed last night!

  • Flyin_Pig

    Final storm total here was .49. Had an unexpected brief thundershower yesterday afternoon with a few hundredths of rain, then steady light to moderate rain late evening and then again from about 3 to 5 am. Just over two inches since July which is about an inch below normal to date.

    This is in the Knights Ferry area 25 mi w of Sonora.

  • alanstorm
    • Flyin_Pig

      Those are sure the oddest looking plants. Joshua trees?

      • alanstorm

        Yep

        • Tuolumne

          They were invented by U2 back in 1987.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Beautiful photos

      • alanstorm

        Thanks. Antelope Valley is definitely a special place.
        I always have lucid-dreams when camping out there.

    • molbiol

      Saddleback Butte park I presume. That park is roughly 12 miles east of my place of residence. I’ve hiked the main butte a couple of times and the view is lovely. I also go there frequently to watch sunsets although one time while I was savoring a sunset, I had to deal with a douche bag park ranger

      • alanstorm

        Your territory obviously!
        Not far from the serious aerospace R & D on all sides!

      • alanstorm

        Have you ever hiked up Grey Butte? It’s just a few miles to the SE, between there & El Mirage. Great views of Grey Butte Field airport, place of many wierd secrets.
        It might be restricted now

        • molbiol

          haven’t hiked grey butte, but did hike the buttes near club ed (popular outdoor filming spot with fake old rural gas stations etc.). There was a secret cave/mine shaft we used to go into…but they recently blocked access to it..

      • jstrahl

        My then wife and i tried to find it one time, drove along 138 from Twentynine Palms (we camped in Joshua Tree two nights, had a really nice “experience” there), made it past Adelanto, but then got lost in the maze.

        • molbiol

          You were almost there. Hi Vista is in that area where they filmed scenes for the movie Kill Bill

          • jstrahl

            I’ll have to come back some Spring. With a better map.

    • I’ve been there! I was puking my guts out from a flu on a geology field expedition traveling and measuring the entire length of the San Andreas and several other California faults for a special geology college course. Ended up having to take a 32 hour Greyhound bus ride home from Barstow to Oakland. So much I’m leaving out in this story ha, codeine cough syrup is a time traveling machine.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Picked up a measly 0.02 early this morning and now have a rain year [jul-jun] total of 0.22. Yikes

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • Unbiased Observer

      Don’t worry it will flip back to show a monster ridge next run.

      • Steve92

        It did

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      If this is GFS doing a 180, what does the EC look like?

      • We wont know for a few hours, but I will post it the second we do.

    • jstrahl

      “Give it a minute, it will blow away.” Or at least 6 hours, till the next run.

    • Just took a look, at least it’s suggesting lower snow levels and a good dose of powder – foot or more at resorts first week of Dec. Down to Pollock Pines which is 4000 feet.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/69bbe307989bff854f8aeb5aa460cbd8163837401163d43f22c55d8a99a0fe27.jpg

      • jstrahl

        Is Pollock Pines even that high? I remember driving up US 50 and getting there way before seeing the 4000 ft road sign. At least i think i do.

        • I literally checked before posting and it’s 3980 feet. A reasonable elevation to expect snow at in the first week of December. I posted a cryptic photo below – it meant that the sun now sets at 4pm where I live. That will be quite conducive to things finally starting to stick around…

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Hey Crash, you asked about the site I get a lot of the images I post here. Here’s the info.

            http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/geo/#/animation

            The default is a single, latest image. But, look on the left margin for load options, including how many images to see in sequence, and whether they are – visible, short wavelength, water vapor, long wavelength. Then, once you pick a multiple image load, you can pick the enhancement from the drop down at the top menu.

            Happy gif making.

          • jstrahl

            See? That’s why i didn’t see the 4000 sign till after Pollock Pines. The 20 ft made a difference. 🙂 Thanks.

          • Charlie B

            Actually there is or at least used to be a 4000 sign right past the Pollock Pines exit. We used to have a free farm up there and as a youngster I went there often. While other kids argued with siblings I read road signs. I need to get a life

        • AlTahoe

          In the old days Pollock pines is where you would normally first see snow on your way to Tahoe. I am sure by the time this storm comes in the snow levels will be 7k and won’t drop till the moisture is gone. We are at 1″ of snowfall for Sept through November at 6200′.

        • Charlie B

          Pollock Pines is indeed 4,000 feet. Then highway 50 drops down to under 3,000 feet where is crosses the South Fork of the American and then reaches 4,000 feet again at Kyburz.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Just because; the atmosphere is a living river of energy, a symphony of shapes and events marching to the tune of planetary physics. Models be damned, we are at the mercy of all of this.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ffb956c14a894d44d2d84d75deadcc66117c5d5f4392f31db77ddedca4bdeb6.jpg

  • Chris

    My rainfall report copied from my “Morgan Hill Rainfall” page.
    A new daily record! Nov 26 has not been known for heavy rain apparently.

    As of 8:00am 11/27/18

    Today .35
    Record .26 in 1997
    Month 3.28
    Year 3.83

  • Charlie B

    Random thoughts on the passing scene.
    1. 1889-90 was the third snowiest winter in Tahoe/Donner area. The next year (1890-91) Donner Pass received 153″ of snow, which was the record for least snow until the dismal 2014-15 year. I think that history shows that oftentimes blockbuster years are followed by busts. The most recent example was 2011-12 which was dismal after the epic 2010-11 year.
    2. Rarely are there two big years back to back. 1981-82 and 1982-83 is on example, but again, more often than not big years follow crappy ones, and crappy ones follow big ones. It is the law of averages.
    3. The law of averages might not apply to current climate conditions, so #3 might have to be revised somewhat.
    4. Meterological winter is the three coldest months, which in the Northern Hemisphere means Dec.-Feb. Calendar winter is roughly Dec. 21-Mar. 21. No matter how you cut it, we have not yet reached winter, so why fret that the GFS or other models are ugly? That is like throwing in the towel when your favorite baseball team falls behind 1-0 after the top of the first.
    5. Can anyone point to any year where California has not experienced a prolonged ridge of HP during winter? Take your time. Tick,tick. As I learned earlier this year, even 1951-52 had dry and warm spells with temps up to the 60’s at 5,000 feet (Blue Canyon) smack dab in the middle of the year.
    6. For anyone who has never lived in Seattle, trust me, drizzle gets old quickly.
    7. The 49ers should start Garrappolo. Why not? Sure, he might ruin a knee or shoulder, but that is an occupational hazard.

    • jstrahl

      Depends on what “prolonged” means. A couple of weeks? Sure. But that to me is not prolonged. Two big years in a row? ’94-5 and ’95-6, ’04-5 and ’05-6 come to mind too.

      • Charlie B

        “Big” is an elastic term, I know. I guess I look at those knock your socks off curl your toes whoppers. The ones we tell our grand kids about. “Prolonged” is also elastic. What is interesting is one of Daniel’s theories that going forward the swings between boon and bust will become more pronounced. Last year was a boom for the north st least. I am not betting that this will be another one. BTW: what is your Squaw Valley snow prediction for December?

      • Bombillo1

        Intuitively one would not think that atmospheric conditions would/could turn on a dime. SSTs, MJO, SOI, ENSO etc. & their teleconnections could quite conceivably remain or overlap on consecutive years. I would expect dry years to beget more dry years and wet ones to do the same. It was one major thing about this year that we needed to confirm, that we had transitioned into a completely different regime. I am not entirely sure that is so even now.

    • AlTahoe

      Last season and 1994-1995 we’re really the only two winters that did not have a prolonged dry spell during winter. This year feels like 1999-2000 and 2000-2001 where nothing got started until January.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Good points — December snowfall prediction for Squaw = 85”

    • It’s curious that 1888-89 had a SEN similar to 2015-16.

  • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

    Randsburg from this weekend. Perfect camping weather out there during our heat wave. Last year was freezing wind and rain, not fun in a tent! There is a ton of rich mining history out here; stop by the little town if you are ever going past on highway 395 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5642f72bc70cfbba067e3d8b351d325c91a3d2ff5b2d2161170dcedde24dcdf8.jpg

    • sectionmaker

      I brake for rocks!!! (Rockhound)

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        There are some really cool rocks and minerals that came out of the mines that you wouldn’t really find any other way, due to being inside a mountain, weathering, ect.

        • sectionmaker

          yes, I have many of the old rockhound books, and a full collection of old school Geologic Maps of most of California. Really run to browse around the maps in my head!!
          Those tunnels spook me out though, without ropes and lights. I like the mixed up jumbled agates and stuff for the gardens here. Hard to walk 2 feet without picking up something cool. Even the rest stops !!!
          I have some OCD friends who used to go metal detecting. out by Last Chance Cyn..spending hours then days, getting little teeny scraps of gold….I kept telling bring me back anything clear, blue, read or green, its worth more. haha…got all sorts of interesting rocks with that suggestion. Im way overdue for a drive out 126 to the 14 etc,,,,maybe this winter.

          • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

            Very interesting! And no ropes for me, only the easy caves lol

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        Im pretty sure I found a great quartz example, with more clear crystals. I can’t really take a good picture of it

  • 0z is garbage. Waiting for the ECMWF.

    • jstrahl

      RandomTreeinSB posted it an hour ago, below, it does NOT look like garbage. (He’s got the animation video).

  • Unbiased Observer

    BTW scored .01″ from the latest event, bringing my November and storm year total to a staggering total of 0.03″.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    I found this rainfall report page on the NWS Monterey site first when I lived in San Jose. Looking at other NWS sites, I didn’t readily locate a similar link on their pages for rainfall totals.

    But, just now, as I was searching for the rainfall reports for my new area in Rancho Cordova, I found a way to see reports from any county in CA at the bottom of this page. Cool!

    It’s here: http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/county_precipMaps.php?group=sacramento&hour=24

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/41ef733ecc44a69b0bc3dfbff7b5a6705afa782797dba191a2303b0a63f84215.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      PS. The M means, missing.

    • Unbiased Observer

      For some reason the counties in the Hanford forecast area aren’t there.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        King county. Huh, maybe there aren’t any “approved” rainfall collection locations there. Seems unlikely, but hey, check with your local NWS area office and see if you can qualify for being a reporting site.

        • Unbiased Observer

          Kern actually, but some others are missing as well.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Okay Okay, I did write “any” county. Wrong! Take up your grievances with the Commerce Dept. Maybe the budget cut backs from our esteemed president are to blame? : ^ |

  • Fairweathercactus

    I started checking models in 2005. I don’t think I have seen them struggle like this since 2006 season.

    • Did you witness the Hair-Grayificaton-5000-O-Matic that was 14/15?

      • Fairweathercactus

        Even worse I remember one of the biggest flops of all time in the early 2000s. When downtown was going to get 6-11 inches of rain over the course of 3 days. The low stalled offshore and we ended up with nearly nothing. I almost cried just watching the maps.

        • Darin

          And so the cactus was born

          • Fairweathercactus

            I got my first cactus in 2002. It bloomed for the first time in 2009.

        • Tom & Koyano Gray

          “The storm has stalled”

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I remember when it use to get cold at night here

    • Unbiased Observer

      Turn out the lights….the party’s over.

    • inclinejj

      I remember when wine women and song were affordable!

  • Crouching Dallas

    ??
    ???? in
    ????? this
    ??????house
    ?????? we appreciate
    ????????????
    —–the 00Z GFS run——-
    ?????????? ??
    ????????????

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      How long did it take for you to build that!!?? So neat!

      • Crouching Dallas

        t’was Cap’n who built it – deep within an OC slammer. He slipped it through the bars of his cell, hidden inauspiciously inside a fuzzy mitten.

        • Crouching Dallas

          / i found the design online and changed the words!

        • inclinejj

          I sometimes used to wonder if he was kidding. He drove disadvantaged kids or adults. You would have though he would have had to pass a background check. Wish him the best.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Euro is absolutely dry for NorCal through 168 hours, go figure

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Bombillo1

      During the triple R years, Seattle had much reduced rainfall as well. The kryptonite was was getting to them too. Last year’s good juju is still out there.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Would’ve been easily in the 40s right now if not for those clingy NE winds. Not sure how many more sleepless nights I have to put up with that, and I just came off of a bad stomach flu last Friday.

  • Unbiased Observer

    The models may be flip flopping back and forth for early next week’s storm, but my money is on dry….at least for the southern half of the state.

    • That would probably be a…biased observation.
      I don’t know where you are though, Riverside?

      • Unbiased Observer

        Bakersfield

  • That sure looks like a major cold outbreak on the other side of the country.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/476e605d5a0b3eda84bc50152d51ef776491f36b432afe8506cd9e37f93a70e2.jpg

    • which means, we get the base of the shaft…all the way in to the hilt, and then twisted. WeatherBells deep.
      In prior years this setup kills the crab.
      https://i.ytimg.com/vi/paF6KH12x1Y/hqdefault.jpg

    • Dry Bones

      Gawd these omega blocks

      • AntiochWx

        Welcome to the new normal.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      SS,DY.

  • Fairweathercactus
  • Nate

    Agung update from Dr. Janine Krippner (ATTM the harmonic tremor has ceased). I know Daniel’s mentioned it, but she and Eric Klemetti (@eruptionsblog) are doing an incredible job communicating/explaining this event.

    https://twitter.com/janinekrippner/status/935419432607809536

    https://twitter.com/janinekrippner/status/935391482655232000

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a78b8f79d4e29215f9958b1cc5fae55811b9613341565bb5fc94e40262812b4.png

  • BerryessaSage

    Thankfully,all the rain we have gotten over the past month has begun to green up the burn zone from the Tubbs Fire. Sadly. it will take decades before the forests grow back on the slopes of MT. St. Helena overlooking Napa Valley. At least the headwaters of the Napa River are flowing very nicely!! Hopefully we get alot of rain in the second half of December (since the first half doesn’t look too promising) otherwise, all this green grass will begin to wither away again…
    Here’s some pics:

    The headwaters of the Napa River on Mt. St. Helena have a nice flow:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3062c6feb9bccd14e7ef38b33eaa03532d6ad2cf49f80550503de40ec1ec6490.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8145c63046a87a8d7f056469d404356bec0e19810fc84f741761371ce3baafde.jpg

    Enough rain has fallen to start the flow in the smaller side tributaries:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e18c85ee89f8542980fe0f4fa8e815e61a0ceadec1048bf8f21ca85a0b9d5242.jpg

    The green hills overlooking the Napa River Canyon: https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/430912c4c167a29080d89715991a12f6827eacce018db47e1fe3cbe45f660ae2.jpg

    Mt. St. Helena towers over 4000 feet above sea level:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/45374580e823aa979d90746860ba3dbb3d1518a060743893db6953279d9338f6.jpg

    • gedawei

      Looks like a wonderful hike. Robert Louis Stevenson State Park?

      • BerryessaSage

        Yep! just below Robert Louis Stevenson State park

  • inclinejj

    Was chatting with a friend of mine just outside London yesterday. She mentioned a 3 week cold snap with snow and single digits.

  • Bob G (Gustine)
  • Bob G (Gustine)
  • davdorr

    39 degrees this morning in South San Jose. First morning this season in the 30s. Maybe my apple tree leaves will finally start turning colors and fall off.

    • Dry Bones

      43 degrees in north OC this morning. My apricot trees’ leaves are just now turning yellow. This year’s hotumn has severely confused the deciduous plant life.

    • Pfirman

      Yep, hard to spray for curly leaf on the peaches with leaves on the trees.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Did the GFS just pull the ole “forecast a storm, take it away, oooh wait JK here have it back again!”

    What a jackass…..

  • CHeden

    As a kid, I liked looking for images of Charlie Brown in the clouds.
    Seriously.
    His face being round used to pop up everywhere.
    Lucy, too….. Lucy in the Sky?…..ya I know 🙂
    But, this is different.
    Especially considering how many lives might be at risk…let alone the long-term hardships/disruptions Agung will be causing.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9fc66723664a0afdfdc371249f984b758d558e3e6fcf1307c3d5d4731fb6d3a7.jpg

    • Fairweathercactus

      It looks friendly as long as it brings the next ice age.

      • Bombillo1

        Yes, how friendly. It even brought a book “How to Serve Man”.

    • Bombillo1

      Lassen, Shasta and Mammoth caldera are our best shots at something like this. Volcanology is sufficiently advanced that we would know it was coming. Earthquakes on the other hand, well Ca is a legitimate player.

    • honzik
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Thar she BLOWS!!!! Dang, should have listened to the warning about a pending eruption, said the permanently disfigured adrenaline junky….

  • Jim (Watsonville)

    Steve Paulson on KTVU just mentioned WW….told everyone to look it up…numbers should skyrocket !!!

    • Fairweathercactus

      Cactus would like to welcome the new wave of people!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Steve has been a long time lurker on here I know.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Always enjoy his forecasts…dont hide Steve, say hello !!!

        • Bombillo1

          The Boo Radley of Weather West.

          https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=iRmIef02Ajk

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          I remember his March Miracle forecasts in the early 90’s, when such an occurrence actually took place…

    • Bombillo1

      It’s getting kind of crowded around here. OH GIVE ME LAND LOTS OF LAND, DON’T FENCE ME IN.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        And don’t expect me to pay any taxes because streets fix themselves and fires just go out, eventually!

    • The moment of the mention was definitely noticeable, traffic wise, though the spike was relatively small compared to what happens each time there is a new blog post. 😉

      Welcome, newcomers! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6278a01b9e85c694da411a3eb4882d1bc3d1776b2234288d17e6a67264c9b30b.png

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Good press either way !!

      • Bombillo1

        Unfortunately with this pattern these boards are not going to be too interesting. Reports from Auntie Matilda in Minneapolis etc. zzzzzzz.

        • matthew

          It can be enjoyable listening to the wailing and gnashing of teeth over something that people have no control over. Or maybe that is just me.

          • Bombillo1

            Exactly. Daniel has brilliantly tapped into a fundamental aspect of human nature, sadism.

          • Pfirman

            Wait, don’t you mean masochism?

          • That market is cornered by low income Trump voters.

          • matthew

            Is it sadism to enjoy watching weather masochists?

          • Bombillo1

            Voyeur + Masochist = WW board member.

          • Bombillo1

            More fun to watch others suffer. A little bit of Mengele in everyone.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            I thought the affliction was complainingism – Eh?

      • Nathan

        what, you mean the legions of Steve Paulson fans didn’t break the internet?

        • CHeden

          I was already here.
          Charter member of the SPFC (Steve Paulson Fan Club) since Ch. 36.

          • Chris

            Same here!!! I was 15 I think.
            I’m bummed he stopped doing Facebook updates though ?

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            I used to watch him way back then too. A big fan. I learned a lot watching his forecasts. On Channel 36 he went into detail about the dynamics in the eastern pacific, HP, LP, and the Jetstream and how it was all working. When I saw him on his current station, he doesn’t nearly get into it like that

    • what did he say?

  • CHeden

    If anyone is interested, there is a nice thunderstorm going off around Agung at the moment. Given it’s night, some of the flashes are silhouetting the volcano in spectacular fashion. Here’s the live feed.

    • A moth flew by the lights and it looked like a meteorite at first because of streaking, but meteorites don’t streak around at 50 feet 😛
      Timelapse of Agung Sunset Plume Action soon.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      She’s lighting up right now…

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Very dark now with ash fall. I wonder what the morning will look like..

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Yet again, the US Government lets us know that east coasters matter more.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Given they get hurricanes and tornadic supercells in the Eastern half of the country, it is the logical choice. Our bird should go up next March.

        • Bombillo1

          Just in time for our 7 month no weather season. They should just hang out around the coffee maker until next Nov then light the fuse.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            We’re going to have some awesome Monsoon imagery. 😉

          • That’s a double boner, we are going to miss the heart of winter on both the old sat AND the new one ;/

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I’m just afraid our Winter is going to wait it out, too.

          • yeah you should fear La Nina heartily. I’m not concerned, but I probably get two or three times your annual average, we had like 62 inches last season, 40 – something is average. I wonder how farmers past Pt Conshredcion are faring…I’m going to guess poorly.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I live in the LA Metro area which averages ~15″. It would only take a couple good AR events plus a few average strength storms to get us about 80% of that. The season is VERY salvageable. No telling what kind of pattern we might see during late Winter if the Niña influence begins to wane.

          • For the most part, they are doing well, because, well, they have wells and are sucking the ground water out of the ground with wells. This will last a while longer until there is no more ground water to get sucked out by wells. And well, then you better watch out because, well, we will be coming for your water.

          • Bombillo1

            2 boners? Now that IS something…

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Same with the Weather Channel, even a cold front makes TWC in the East Coast, LOL. SoCalWXwatcher does have a good point though

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Hopefully GOES S stays on schedule for launch next March, which should mean we get non-operational imagery and hopefully fully operational imagery, replacing GOES 15 as GOES West the following year.

      • Probably will do testing on SoCal and Mexican Riviera beaches.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          They will pinpoint Yanet on the Mexican Riviera?

  • tomocean
  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Interesting to see the GFS trend farther South with next Monday’s system as opposed to what it was showing yesterday. Not much in terms of rainfall, but if this were to verify it would be the coldest weather for SoCal since last Winter, with the 540dm line reaching San Diego.

    Zero reason to trust the models right now though, since they can’t agree with each other, or even themselves from run to run.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/42787fc02fad0dd05a0fdd5e1f5bd32023665196c832b36e0282c0193b039de5.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f9909ea05bdc432795e3a396c738f0e376d27a4c6a3a1f536031314a2e69c0d3.png

    • weathergeek100

      I mean, cold and dry better than warm and dry? At least it will feel like winter in the desert?

      • Fairweathercactus

        Cold and dry is great for cactus blooming.

      • Bombillo1

        Safeway has an interesting job opening, stacking shelves in the walk in freezer.

      • Dry Bones

        I’ll take cold and dry any day over the typical 80-degree highs we’re getting each day in SoCal. The really crazy thing is these highs are happening with a bare 10 hours of daylight. Imagine this atmospheric setup, but in August. Ugh.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      As long as you’re saying there’s a chance!

    • RunningSprings6250

      There’s a problem when the closer we get the lower the confidence goes ??

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        So far, this hasn’t been a banner season for model skill in the 5-7 day range.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          We say that every year. At least for CA, the models suck.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            With large blocking patterns (of which we’ve had quite a bit lately), they perform worse than usual. With progressive patterns, they can do quite well. The handled a busy wet season fairly well last year, once it became established.

    • thlnk3r

      GFS and EC lining up nicely for Mondays event 😉

      and then there is that polar outbreak in the long range for week 2 …..

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Hello!?

    Hi, it’s me Jason satellite image. I ignore the petulant models and look at things from miles up. Real flow, real action, real weather. And this shot tells me there’s a lot of stuff coming in our direction.

    I like what I’m seeing.

    That’s all. Thank you for looking. Comments?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cba994631e85072a4e9a64bd8402010f2810e3e15c7226e6f509540e2b507d9b.jpg

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Hopefully that ugly looking ridge shifts northward as it does in the 12Z and allow storms to travel underneath. I can’t see how that PNW can get any precip either with the ridge parked outside of Oregon and Washington. When is the MJO going to help us?

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I think the mjo is overrated. I’m a subscriber to storm service videos and he’s obsessed with the mjo, but it seems these strong Pacific storms that used to be generated by the mjo don’t really hit California anymore. Or maybe its that when they hit California, they’re destroyed by high pressure systems that are stronger than they used to be

      • Dry Bones

        I’m going with the second theory you advanced there. I don’t know how many times now we’ve watched a juicy storm system move down the coast only to be obliterated as it rounds PC. Even with the ones that make it through to the southland, we now get a day of fast-moving clouds and a spatter of rain for half an hour, instead of three or four days of lingering clouds and a full day or two or three of rain.

        • AntiochWx

          Question for you, are your daily pressure readings now slightly elevated than years past? I mean are you having more days above 1020mb etc? It would indicate having more days with subsistence, drying out (dessertification).

      • AntiochWx

        I don’t think there is empirical data saying high pressure systems are stronger than before. They might be lasting longer than more (ie more persistent), but I would like to see if data exist on strength. I think it has more to do with high pressure area being more advanced placement to the north (ie expanding hadley cell) , which prevents moisture from penetrating futher southern locations that rely on GOA lows during a non active STJ.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • palmsprings

      Interesting article, altlhough doesn’t go in much depth. I just want to add that hot, dry weather leads to moodiness and hostility due to the proliferation of positive ions. Rainstorms tend to bring on happiness and euphoria because of the negative ions (singing in the shower, anyone?)

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Thank you for saying this! It’s why we’re attracted to water, be it the rain, the ocean, rivers, creeks or even a hot shower.

        This past rain event, on Sunday afternoon, it was soooo joyful to hear and see the rain. I went outside (not during a downpour) and just stood there, looking up, eyes open, mouth open, feeling the droplets striking my eyeballs, face and landing on my tongue. I gave thanks for being alive, and felt such BLISS! Call me weird, I don’t care. It’s the little things that are given us that are the real wealth in our lives. I am deeply grateful for it all.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        It is the renewed feeling you speak of that is going to take me away from Ca. Family is going to be moving in a couple of years before the kids get to school age and weather is one of the top three considerations.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Indeed. Environment is stronger than the will. That’s why we need to choose our friends carefully. Family? We’re stuck with them. We can change, we think we can change others… But only if they WANT to change. Otherwise – a lesson in futility. Just be an example of peace, joy, competence, helpfulness, tolerance and wisdom. No one has the power to make us happy or unhappy, that power solely belongs to us.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Don’t want to go off-topic, but you mention the word tolerance and at the same time say that we need to determine who our friends are based on their beliefs. In my mind what used to make this country great was the fact that to people on diverging sides could come together. I think we are quickly moving away from that time and instead are putting ourselves into camps. Again we might say that our side is right and the other side is wrong, but since they make up almost 50% of the country, we can’t just pretend they don’t exist and call them names. I think the “leader” we have right now is the results of that.

        • Valid. I’ve seen many times the wrong people pander to those in need of actual assistance and all too often those with low income or an adverse environment may not have access to the education needed to give them an objective or sensible viewpoint. You and I wouldn’t pay much attention to an Alex Jones fan for obvious reasons for example, however you can bet the amount of Ivy league graduates who listen to that guy are slim. Education, poverty, and predators are all inextricably linked. I take offense to manipulators, such as someone who will tell a town that coal will come back despite no real market force to do so. Coal is dead and should stay that way as cheap energy isn’t worth the burden our lungs let alone the healthcare system – it’s limping along poor enough as it is. The short term ruination of our environment to chase a quick buck is going to be costing us billions and eventually trillions from a carbon saturated future. Sea level and temperature rises will destroy countless lives.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Very well put. Your cosl example is a good one. Both sides are not being truthful though. The right claims they will bring coal jobs back. Not happening! The left says we can retrain and all is good. When in reality, most of these folks live in smaller towns and retraining does not create jobs in itself. They still need the green business to move in. Plus, green jobs tend to be higher paying, but fewer exist, so at the end of the day, the laid off coal plant worker does not have a job and wants someone to blame.

          • AntiochWx

            The solution is to provide some kind of governmental assistance to those that have relied on the coal economy and offer some kind of training for renewable energy. We can all transition together. The main problem is so many people have invested their lives and money into a dying technology that the right blames on social justice of “cleaning the environment” . Unfortunately they don’t believe in climate change to begin with, so their actions are even more stubborn and they fight it with politics.

          • BRP (Ventura)

            GFS/EURO/CMC can’t get a consensus of a cold front approaching So Cal in the 126 hour range, yet we all, including me, have no doubt that our oceans will rise by 3 feet by the year 2100?!? Just makes me a little suspect of the doom prognostications about our warming planet when the most powerful computer models can’t predict a spattering of rain in 6 days! LOL

          • See that’s just poorly phrasing the argument, it’s like Why don’t Walruses win all monster truck races? Because they are too cool to own monster trucks.
            Don’t focus on sometimes experimental models, focus on the fact that they are struggling to operate correctly in the new regime – check out the Eurofart animation I made above. Sierra water managers already have to work WITH climate change and not against it, arctic ice is shearing off glaciers disappearing and the extreme anomalous heat up in the arctic circle are all signs that are in a dark place right now.

          • jstrahl

            To repeat an analogy i’ve used before: When you flush your bowl, it’s hard to say exactly where every bit of solid material will be 2 seconds later. But, assuming you don’t have a clog, you can tell where everything is gonna be in about a minute. Long trend is a TOTALLY different matter than short term.

          • AntiochWx

            Long range climate models are built on system physics. We know the physics behind planetary climatic systems. The climate system is purely controlled by inputs/outputs like most systems. Solar radiation is obviously the driver behind how much energy our planet receives and orbital parameters control how much of the energy our planet receives, we can monitor and measure this. We know what our climatic outputs are, we know planets that have certain molecular compositions retain varying amounts of energy from radiating to space. Long term climate is highly predictable, just based on physics alone. However the reason short term climate (weather) is fairly unpredictable past a certain time period, is because of the chaotic uncertainity of the many variable that control the atmospheric physics. The variables controling long term climatic changes are much easier to predict and model.

        • PRCountyNative

          Hallelujah Brother!

      • annette johnson

        Very well said Jason.

      • Pfirman

        And this from a married man.

    • RunningSprings6250

      No wonder the cactus has dry humor….

      I think it has more to do with the drugs one does in high school…or not.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    39 in Santa Maria this morning. That’s more like it. I slept pretty well, too.

  • The way this animation of the Euro runs look, you’d think a few frames are missing what with that Donut of Dry popping into existence. Something happened. Red Bull spilled into the liquid cooling loop of the XC40? Latest run shows some comeback, however the signal that was there before showing typical December fun is either gone for good or not yet recovered.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/af2d236d2147e8951be7a43310fede20e88e9ce84e4142d71091c43749b1a350.gif

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      So the Euro is basically now agreeing with every other model and experts that December is going to be bone dry.

      • I think the Euro burped, then farted, and is now looking for its drug baggie. If it doesn’t find even the tiniest speck of Fentanyl in the next 12 hours and trend some sagginess back into California then he’s going to start feening for some PCP so he can “predict with the pretty colors again”, as without PCP the Euro feels its boring Craybound existence is colorless.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        How so? Euro Op run only goes out 10 days.
        If we want to believe EC Weeklies, there are some W coast troughs showing up there, particularly week 5, which would be around Christmas.

        https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/935520211809325056

  • CHeden

    So, what ever DID happen to all that west coast smoke?
    Check out this recently released (VERY cool) Aerosol Simulation from NASA for 2017.
    Some of the atmospheric aerosols that show up are dust, smoke and sea salt (ocean water whipped/suspended in the air by strong winds)
    We’ve often talked about how all things regarding weather are interrelated, and this is an outstanding illustration of how this is so.
    Note how smoke from the West Coast this Summer/Fall polluted skies in Iceland, and NW Europe, dust is pouring off the Sahara and the sea salt plumes resulting from the record-strength Atlantic hurricanes were all heavily involved in the overall NH aerosol content. Common sense dictates that SOME impact to OLR (reduced insolar radiation by day, less cooling at night), enhanced precipitation seeding/more cloud cover, and changes in local albedo must have/is currently taking place (such as a spike in the darkening of Arctic ice surfaces from “dirty” precipitation). But to what extent and how anomalous the change(s) were/are, is something we’ll have to wait for while until the data is all in and the computer’s and climatologists get a chance to mull it over.

    • Bombillo1

      I must ask, where is our enhanced precipitation and our increased albedo? Since these atmosperic injections are relatively short lived the affect must be more acute, no? Record summer and fall temps as well???

      • CHeden

        If you recall, the warm nighttime temps we’ve frequently commented on this Fall most likely was a direct result (in part) of the crummy skies. One could also possibly make a case that the high aerosols levels during our typical “transition” period in October has had a ripple effect that’s now extending through Fall…but that’s pure speculation. As I said, there must have been “some” effect(s), just that the magnitude may be inconsequential or the signal was/is drowned out by other factors.

        • Pfirman

          How does this relate to the constant influx of crappy air from China?

  • YourCatfishFriend

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9335e32c1619d8f2cba11979e03c1f1dba84591386c50812c3dca8e0ba0ff84a.png

    Desertification? I hope not. Other reasons aside, if this place starts to look any more like Joshua Tree the hipsters are gonna go nuts…

    • weathergeek100

      This is exactly what I’m talking about. Overall, it seems like rainfall is on a diminishing trend in SoCal. I’m blaming climate change for this. Of course, since this is such a small sampling size, it could just be a 15-20 year drought.

      It’s interesting because NorCal doesn’t seem to be experiencing the same trend.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        We’re living in a part of the world where there have been droughts that have lasted 200 years.

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Unfortunately there are now 20 million mouths to feed, clothe, bath and consume water. That alone makes this potential “200 year drought” a death sentence to not only So Cal, but to all of our brethren north of PC, due to the consumption of all of their H2O…

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            None of these people have had their feet cemented to the floor. Many of them found a way to get here, they can find a way to go somewhere else.

          • AntiochWx

            That’s not how human psychology works. Many people came here to better their economic prospects, and will NOT leave unless there are better places elsewhere. This state at some point has to say enough is enough, we can’t sustain you. We are beginning to cross into ethical gray areas.

          • Bombillo1

            That’s a huge one and, of course, we’re not just talking about Ca.

          • AntiochWx

            It’s global, people only move if their situation isn’t ideal. Majority of the countries government shares the blame. AGW will just be another reason on the list.

          • Pfirman

            Ideal? You have heard of slums, correct? And need I mention Palestine?

          • AntiochWx

            Ideal is only for those with the means of moving, people living in the slums can’t even think of ideal, they have to settle for survivability standards unfortunately.

          • Al (Turlock)

            I’m surprised to hear the need for more growth restrictions since net migration is negative for California over the last 15 years (mostly poor and middle class leaving). Most population growth as come internally. Also isn’t So Cal already a net importer of both food and water? so it seems like investment in water conservation/recycling measures and investments would probably be cheaper (and less discriminatory on the poor) than growth restriction/ forced relocation or “family planning”? This might be too outside the scope of the blog for my first comment 🙂

          • PRCountyNative

            From 19 million to 38 million and climbing you can’t stop people from not coming; because it’s too crowded no one comes here anymore.

          • ThomTissy

            Hard to believe people come to California to better their lives given that more than 1 in 5 live in poverty, highest in the nation.

          • AntiochWx

            It’s because city planners have no forsight and have allowed to further develop cities in areas that are susceptible to long term droughts, even without AGW. They have hedged their risks on better water managment, and as water sources begin to dry up, alot of people will be exposed. We either invest in desalination and swallow the costs, or we roll the dice with the occasional wet years.

          • Pfirman

            Your sentiment is appreciated, but it is pretty rare, sadly.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Screw that, if I’m here when that happens I’m gone

          • Bombillo1

            Check out Bella Coola, British Columbia. Get yourself a nice salmon fishing boat and watch what happens in LA from about 1500 mi away. The Canucks are OK, they don’t have AR 15s, yet.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            They don’t have the Warriors and Giants so I might stay

      • Chris

        I think a VERY important point to consider is that what type of vegetation exists in any given in depends more on the DRY years vs the overall average or wet years.
        NEarly 100% of the pine trees were lost in the lower elevations of the central and southern Sierras during our last big drought.
        The records rains of last year didn’t return the pine trees with the now Oak forests.
        I’m sure seedlings popped up, but if we have more frequent dry years like the period of January 2013 through November 2014, those trees will be eventually gone for good.
        Even if we have precipitation years like last year every 5 years, It can not bring back the vegetation if we have more severe droughts in between.
        Then you have the increased heat to factor in.
        I think vegetation other than grasses will retreat northward and to higher elevations in a relatively short amount of time.

        • PRCountyNative

          Add infinite human sources of fire ignition, insects bugs and pests, some non-native species: trees are toast.

          • Chris

            I HATE agreeing with yourcomment ?

          • PRCountyNative

            Yeah, sorry. I’m just looking around, seeing more frequent fires, with old old stands of trees succumbing.

            If a quarter of the trees die every several years, there ain’t gonna be a lot of trees pretty quickly.

            It is the predators and the stressors that determine the ranges of species, as well as whether conditions amenable to growth and survival are present.

            Thanks for sharing.

      • We have a paper that’s now in review on exactly this topic. If all goes well, I can discuss it in a few months…

      • jstrahl

        Don’t know why you say that about NorCal. Of the last 6 seasons, 4 (the first four) were below average, the next one about average (El Nino did not help much) and the last one well above. Year 7 seems to be reverting to the pattern of the first four.

      • CHeden

        Shasta and Lassen have lost much of their ancient glacial ice.
        That’s strong evidence that NorCal isn’t escaping the wrath of climate change.

    • weathergeek100

      Thanks for uplifting news. I’m just stoked right now for all of that sunshine headed our way. Yay for beach days in December so we can take our cliche picture of our ‘beautiful climate’, post it on facebook to make the rest of the country jealous, and watch snow falling on tv in Minnesota. Soooo excited….

      *sarcasm*

      • BRP (Ventura)

        Sarcasm appreciated…as a coastal dweller, receiving Christmas cards from friends or family that were taken at the beach are mildly annoying. Yeah, great, it’s sunny and warm in CA in November when you took your picture, but everything south of PC is dying a slow and agonizing death. But hey, at least you look good in those shorts on the beach!

        • Jim Yerkes

          Spot on reference your comment about lack of rain. I lived in Minnesota for 7 years and St. Louis area for 20 years besides growing up in the Philly area. No such worries as trees dying you always got your rainfall maybe a mini drought here and there. Just above all weather systems pass through the northeast. Many more moisture sources ie Great Lakes; Gulf of Mexico thr Atlantic’ ocean etc etc. Sadly here on the West Coast (California wise) you really are limited if the GOA is cut off and no storms are able to penetrate a large blocking ridge. I will gladly wear my Eddie Bauer parka in the winter rather than 80 degrees in SoCal in December not knowing when you will see your next raindrop. That said lucky as heck to have gotten 7;inches of rain this Month in El Dorado Hills but know the weather can turn on a dime even up here in NorCal and go bone dry real quick

    • Yay!!! Can’t wait……

  • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

    Please someone tell me this is a joke??? It’s already cracking???

    http://www.sfgate.com/news/us/article/Officials-No-threat-from-cracks-in-new-Oroville-12389253.php

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Proof that our country’s infrastructure sucks and it’s not going to change by increase gas taxes. 9.9

  • weathergeek100

    After the ‘storm’ this weekend (when/if models agree on what it is), all models say dry until further notice….which of course leads to Daniel saying dry, Howard saying dry, BA saying dry, etc etc.

    It’s one thing if SoCal got a solid storm with appreciable rainfall before this dry trend begins, it’s another if it didn’t. Growing up down there, I remember winter dry spells began…..uhh….after wet spells, whether that meant several storms or one storm. But they’ve been in a dry trend since March, and it will now continue. For NorCal, we’ll fall back below avg and I suppose we’ll just wait and see what happens.

    SOOOO, is it panic mode now finally?

    • matthew

      Nahhh…the time to panic was about 10 years ago.

    • tomocean

      Why panic? What good would it do?

      • AntiochWx

        It doesn’t do any good. Should put that energy into something constructive. If you are worried about the changing climate that much, try and reduce your personal carbon footprint, and in the meantime vote for people who believe in climate change that are willing to try and make changes on the large scale.

        • Bombillo1

          Even better, support your local Family Planning clinic.

          • matthew

            Mother Nature will re-balance the scales if we do not.

        • tomocean

          Yep. We survived the dryest rainy season in the last 1,200 years just two years ago. I suspect we’ll survive this one as well. The real question is a longer term one: Are we making the planet uninhabitable to large human populations/civilizations?

          • AntiochWx

            It’s a good question. Some scientist have different views regarding this question. Honestly in my opinion, any warming ( unatural) warming at faster rates than what most animals can adapt too, isn’t a good thing at all. Humans can pack up and move futher north and futher away from oceans, but this comes with a huge price tag, more expensive than it would be if we just would have switched to renewable sources from the beginning. Other lifeforms are in much much greater danger than humans, if the ocean warms to a certain point, it could have devestating impacts on the biosphere, same goes for land species. We don’t know of all the very negative impacts these changes could have, but I sure don’t want to even come close to finding out. Why are some people hell bent on playing Russian Roulette with the only home we currently have, all for the sake of trying to support the fossil fuel companies bottom line.

          • matthew

            If you are under 30 you will come close to finding out and your kids will see it up close and personal.

          • AntiochWx

            It’s just really sad, it doesn’t HAVE to come down to this. It’s all 100% preventable.

          • Bombillo1

            Or perhaps an event that took place 70,000 years ago, when the Human population was reduced to about 5,000 individuals. Gleaned from mitochondria DNA studies.

          • Thunderstorm

            Evolution continues non stop. Next advancement or maybe the opposite is artificial intelligence entities. Rapidly evolving into who knows what. Weather forecasting leads the way in AI.

          • PRCountyNative

            Currently devolution rules and AI is way overblown.

      • ThomTissy

        You must be new to the semi frequent freak outs and walls of text.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Disappointment, yes. Panic? No.
      Even if it turns out we get zilch for December (and I’m not convinced of that), we still have Jan/Feb/March. During Winter 1990/91 we got almost all our rain in March. Of course past performance is no guarantee of future results, and that’s also the case with all the analogs we’ve been using to get ourselves depressed. Not worth it.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fc82adae501c10dcf08a052c694aa8da2ee850b9e43a9b90fd88327395c447d6.gif

      • AntiochWx

        I don’t like the term past performance is no guarantee of future results. It may NOT guarantee it, but there is definitely valuable statistical predictive qualities to it. Physics is everything, and physics is not on the side of SoCal with an expanding Hadley cell.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I’m referring to seasonal analogs to predict conditions for a specific season.

          See the past 2 seasons as examples where this has failed.

          • AntiochWx

            Again we are dealing with a relatively small sample size of the Earth’s natural climatic history. Granted seasonal analogs aren’t perfect, but there is still valuable statistical data, even on a short term predictive basis. It would be foolish to predict something without statistical data support, unless there is sound logical reasoning against it.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            “seasonal analogs aren’t perfect” is an understatement indeed. My only point is that we still have another 4 months left in the season for this region and it is premature to write it off, regardless of what analogs lead us to believe, given the fact they are indeed fallible. One of the things about weather that fascinates me is that it often yields the unexpected.

          • AntiochWx

            My emotions are purely bounded by physics and the data that is collected from previous atmospheric states. I just tend to be less excited during La Nina years because statistically they aren’t good for above average rainfall. Surely statical flukes happen, and we can’t discredit that, but as of now, there is no model support alievating the logical doubt. I am a human of science and logic, I’m not one for irrational emotion of hope when support isn’t there to be hopeful.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            No doubt that is a very valid position to have, and I respect your take. I was quite enthusiastic for the 2015/2016 season because we had one of the strongest El Niño signals in almost 20 years, and seasonal models were strongly suggesting a very wet season, especially for SoCal, so there was plenty of science and logic to back up the assertion. Even so, it did not turn out to be the case.

            When I state the fact that this season still has several months left in it, and that analogs are fallible, I’m not basing it on irrational emotion, but on fact.

          • AntiochWx

            Why would you support something that has less than 50% chance of happening. Would you still hit on a 18 if the dealer is showing a 7 out of fear the dealer beat you 30% of the time in the past? The numbers are against having to much hope for a rainy season in a La Nina, especially for SoCal, fallible or not. It may not be totally irrational emotion, but it isn’t something I would rely on for scientific predictions.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            You are conflating “Analogs are fallible” for “supporting something that has less than 50% chance”. The failure rate for analogs over the past 2 seasons is 100%. We’ve gotten some decent AR events in Niña years, and we’ve had some extremely dry El Niño events.

            Yes, La Niña seasons tend to end up below average, but it sounds like you are saying we should write off the rainy season 22 days before the start of Astronomical Winter. To me this resembles irrational emotion, as opposed to prudent science.

            The driest winter I can remember here was during a weak El Niño, and one of the wettest Decembers I can recall was during the La Niña of 2010. None of those years were above average, but they weren’t disasters either.

          • AntiochWx

            I think analog statistical analysis of La Nina years puts SoCal’s chances of below average rainfall at around 70%, why would you bet against that? and yes the last 2 seasons vs analogs has been terrible, which I have stated could be attributed to either being an outlier to general past trends or the start to climate weirding.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            And if you are able to attribute “climate weirding” to the fact that the analogs crashed & burned during the last 2 seasons, why would you hitch a ride with them?

            I’m certainly not saying we’re going to get above normal precip this season, I just don’t think we should write it off as a disaster either.

          • AntiochWx

            Because there is still an underlying natural variability that exist, natural weirding just throws curve balls. Example you can still have an atmospheric base state, just with wrinkles that can throw off climate numbers that don’t tell the whole story. Example, climate weirding can make ridges last longer, so you have longer dry spells, but however the same season can have brief periods of above normal activity that skews the numbers for that time period, the season may come out average and vise versa. We are already beginning to see this, we are having more and more days with no precipitation. I bet if someone plotted the entire dataset of days of 0.00″ , below 0.05″ , below 0.10″ , etc. the recent RRR years would stick out like a sore thumb.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            And theoretically there’s nothing to stop climate weirding from throwing more curveballs this season. La Niña’s have been known for some impressive AR events. I’d expect less storms, but climate change could mean more potent AR’s. Considering seasonal rainfall averages in SoCal aren’t that high in the first place, it wouldn’t take more than a few potent events to make a respectable season total, even if somewhat below average.

            If we get ~75% of normal I wouldn’t call it a disaster. I’m not yet ready to jump on the doom & gloom bandwagon which is pervasive here.

          • AntiochWx

            I think that is precisely why there is much doom and gloom here, because they remember a time when rainier or at least cloudier weather was more common. Now it just comes in brief potent events, instead of the garden variety systems of yesteryear. I have to do more statisical analysis to validate my claim.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I don’t really feel that we are going to have above normal precip this season in Socal, but I don’t think we are going to have a disastrously dry season like a 1960-61, 2001-02, or a 2006-07, either. I predict we will fall somewhere in between, and the action will pick up either later in December or January.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            We have had seasons in the past with bone dry falls that have turned wetter once we get into the winter months, even if the season total was below average by a couple or three inches. 1995-96 and 1999-2000 are a couple examples of relatively recent La Nina years that had this type of pattern. There are a few things that have happened since this last summer that remind me of the 1995-96 season.

          • AntiochWx

            Also we are beginning to venture into uncharted territory with how exactly AGW will influence California precipitation trends, which could be the reason why this past super El Nino didn’t cooperate, it is tough to tell right now.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Of course AGW may be rendering our analogs less effective in predicting seasonal rainfall, maybe that’s what happened with the busted “Godzilla” El Niño. That’s another reason why we should be careful when using them to write the epitaph of a rainy season when we’re only 1/5 of the way into it.

          • AntiochWx

            Well 4/5 is a pretty good indicator, not going to sulk and pout because the dealer hit 21 against my 20.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            If 4/5 was a pretty good indicator for how the rest of the season is going to go, 2010/11 and 2008/06 would have been record rainfall seasons here in SoCal. They most definitely were not. This is not a scientific way to gauge a season.

            If it turns out we only get 1″ of rain down here by March, I won’t sulk and pout either. What good would it do? LOL. 😉

          • AntiochWx

            I’m saying 4/5 super El Nino’s being wetter than average is a pretty good indicator of how most super El Nino’s will behave. It’s not a perfect science, it’s just staticial analysis forecasting, which has been used for years, and is still being used. Whenever you here the term 60% chance of rainfall for the day, it basically means the forecaster is 60% confident its going to rain over the forecast area. How did they determine that percentage? More than likely they are performing statistical analysis of current weather variables vs a large atmospheric weather variables historical dataset.

          • AntiochWx
          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Interesting read. I gather there is much more reliance on numeric model output now when preparing official rainfall POPs than when that was written.

          • AntiochWx

            It’s both, forecasters use both methods when making a prediction at the NWS.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I think some organizations like Weather Underground use an automated formula derived from raw model output. I trust the NWS method more.

          • AntiochWx
          • Pfirman

            You discount hoping against hope? Hope is one of the Three Graces.

          • AntiochWx

            I don’t like hoping for the sake of hope. Especially with no supporting evidence, I don’t like blind hope and faith. I’m not one for optimism, it’s unrealistic and most of the time unattainable, I greatly appreciate the realist attitude much more.

          • Pfirman

            I have faith that you hope for the sake of rain. Further, it’s too late for pessimism, according to Lester Brown.

        • Pfirman

          You must not have a wife.

          • AntiochWx

            I do.

      • jstrahl

        March ’91 was an abnormality, i’m pretty convinced related to the massive oil wells fires set in Kuwait by retreating Iraqi troops. Dry weather changed within a few days to non stop rain for about four weeks, and then stopped just like that. We in Berkeley got well over half of that season’s rainfall in those four weeks Feb 26th to March 26th.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          It was definitely an abnormality, regardless of the cause. I’ve never seen anything since. The smoke plumes from the oil well fires stayed below 18,000ft, so it is unlikely they had much influence on global weather patterns.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            We had months later in the 1990’s that were equally as wet or wetter than March 1991. I believe that January 1993 and February 1998 were similar, but it is quite rare to get those types of rainfall amounts in March, though.

        • Thunderstorm

          I remember the Miracle March. Used to dredge for gold on the north fork of the American River. Never saw the river so low in February that year at any time ever, just a trickle.

        • VK (Sacramento)

          So, we need to burn a lot more oil wellls and we will get rain. Let’s get on it

          • Dan the Weatherman

            The Miracle March of 1991 was the beginning of the end of the 5 year drought that began in the late 80’s. That wet month turned out to be a sign of a wetter pattern ahead, which lasted for the better part of the 1990’s with only a couple of drier years in between that ended after the 1997-98 El Nino. The PDO flipped negative in the middle of 1998.

  • Bombillo1

    To lighten up the boards here I thought I would bring up the impending reversal of our planet’s polarity. A UCSC planetary scientist thinks it may be happening now. Difficult to predict what the effects may be but anything very different from the last 740,000 years will not likely be kind to us.
    https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/09/0927_040927_field_flip_2.html

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I remember hearing about this, how would this affect our weather if that is even known?

      • Bombillo1

        Indeed. Do things like Rosby waves, ocean gyres, ion movement/alignment etc have teleconnections? When is the planet going to deal up a snake eyes for us Homos?

        • matthew

          Wonder what this will do to migratory animals?

          • There were migratory animals and insect before during and after previous flips.

          • matthew

            Yes. And I still wonder how the flip impacted them in the immediate timeframe after it flipped.

            If it was really a quick flip, then the last place that I would want to be is in an airplane.

          • This article from NASA says it happens over a long period of time. You have a very good point. One that intrigues me too. https://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/2012-poleReversal.html

          • Pfirman

            Simple, they turn around.

        • Do you think it’s going to do a back flip off a diving board? How would it mess with us?

    • thlnk3r

      Here is a better headline:
      Top UCSC Planetary Scientists says reversal of our planet’s polarity already too late. Dire consequences already unfolding.

    • Damn, and I just bought a new compass.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Hopefully you can set the declination on it:)

    • Nate

      …September 27, 2004?

    • Pfirman

      Whoa, this explains a lot, especially anything orange.

  • molbiol

    Latest GFS ensemble still has cutoff low early next week (with possible wrap around convection) but spread is increasing. Also, there are hints that this cutoff low may dive south into Baja and completely miss Socal… either way, the ensembles are in better agreement on a highly amplified block that developing. Unfortunately, the block looks like it will be in the WRONG place at the wrong time. It be very interesting if December 20 roles around and Socal still has not had a significant winter storm. Sucks for the ski resorts as well (Bearmtn, Snowvalley, Mthigh)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/995a130a743e118d5c93c605f515ed2172c57b7bb50d911bce4d9c2fa8cf9409.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/048228d54c8f7f82fe193e813ceaa3934756353e524661f2cc3d3a0eae41fe0b.png

    • AntiochWx

      Hopefully the SoCal ski resorts were listening to some of the weather experts and bought some weather derivatives to offset their risks of a below seasonal snowfall.

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        Are you talking about snow making equipment? Bear and Mt High have great snow blowers but the conditions just haven’t been right to make a lot of snow. Cool Santa Ana’s are great but those have been largely absent…

        • RunningSprings6250

          They’ve only been able to blow snow in a little shaded corner of the tubing area next to snow valley – zip at snow valley unless they fired em up the last couple days…

          • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

            SAD!

        • AntiochWx

          No, the ski resorts have the ability to buy weather derivative contracts to hedge against seasons they think will be less profitable. It’s like an insurance policy. IF you think you won’t have much cold air to make snow or precipitation might be lacking, you can by HDD contracts on the CME market. If you are wrong on your HDD contracts you lose your money, if you are right you get the money from the contract to help offset your loses from a poor ski season. Farmers also do this, it’s one way of not having to deal with insurance premiums and claims.

          • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

            Ahh I see, I didn’t know that!

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I don’t see much of anything with that low even if it manages to get into CA. We have an amplified pattern coming while there is a trough in the east. Hopefully this isn’t a pattern that locks in a long time like 2014 or 2015

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      This is nuts, the resorts have abundant water from last year but they haven’t been able to make much snow so they could at least open

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    18z GFS drops a cold low pressure system into the SoCal bight next Monday, vaguely reminiscent of what the EC was sowing a few days back.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I see almost no moisture with that system

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Mostly dry, but cold unstable air aloft could result in some interesting weather for a few lucky locations under that scenario. 6 days away with very little model consensus, so likely won’t happen at all.

        • Fairweathercactus

          If that where to hold looks like your classic day where the northern slopes and foothills get the best chance of anything. A few isolated thunderstorms if it comes in the afternoon.

  • inclinejj

    Regardless of the models My collarbone is screaming today!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Well… At the moment, SoCal folks should check your the local radars. There is some upper level subtropical moisture streaming in ahead of the upper level low causing some puffy stuff to lift off. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ada7244b0cc0a6cdc6eedbd35cf5126cc86f750abf4f4b9df2e4894055e27c0f.jpg

    • molbiol

      I see nothing but high clouds on satellite. Also, those radar echoes are false (likely debris or military chaff)

    • Fairweathercactus

      Anywhere els in the world it would likely bring some rain. But here keep dreaming.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        We have been as dry as the Atacama Desert so far this fall.

    • RunningSprings6250

      LOTS of Virga seen from this elevation watching a beautiful sunset. Mostly from the I-10 corridor south.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Got to say, I don’t know which sucks worse: Lonzo Ball making his shots or the Pacific Ocean sending storms towards SoCal? Leaning toward the latter.

    • I say Lonzo.

    • AntiochWx

      How can it send us storms when persistent high pressure subsistence either gobbles it up or flexes it away.

  • Charlie B

    I guess I have to break it to everyone now. My wife, Mrs. Charlie B, is responsible for the continuing dryness and the dismal outlook, especially down south. You see, she is tired of the cold and stormy north and rented a cute little house in San Clemente for December and most of January. Thursday night we will finish packing the car and securing the computer, printer, etc.(and bikes, golf clubs, martini shakers) and off we go. I will be working remotely even though I have to return to the north periodically for various things.
    She has been praying for 2 months solid for nice weather (I just learned this recently as I thought she was “meditating”) and obviously, faithful woman she is, her prayers have been answered. So, sorry everyone, no rain at all in SoCal through the latter part of January, 2018. This will free everyone from spending undue time studying the latest Euro, GFS, etc. model runs and allow time for re-acquainting with family, friends neighbors, and maybe take up a new hobby such as macramé.
    Again, I apologize.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Will Tobias be finding his way there as well?

      • Tobias Donner

        Yep.

      • Pfirman

        Tobias owns the damn place.

    • I’m grabbing the Pitch Forks!

    • matthew

      I also own some responsibility- I bought a new rain gauge last week.

      • CHeden

        I too have to bear some responsibility.
        I didn’t bother to buy a new raingauge.

        • Pfirman

          What is a rain gauge? Do I need one?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I just ordered a new rain gauge yesterday, so I am also partially responsible.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      On the other hand, maybe she will bring the colder and stormier weather with her!

  • Freddy66

    What type of temperatures are we looking at with this big ridge in place next week ? Above normal or way above normal.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)
  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Dear Santa,
    Can you give us a Pineapple Express this winter? Or three?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Change that to can you give us a GOA low that merges with a very strong AR

  • alanstorm
    • Craig Matthews

      Any copper mines in those Candy and Soda mountains?

      • sectionmaker

        Im just a rockhound..but from my readings and tromping around:
        I’m thinking more of a mix of gold/copper, most of the good copper mines seem to be over in Arizona……but practically every mineral known to man seems to be in San Bernardino County.
        https://www.mindat.org/locdetailed-3541.html
        Up your direction though SLO countyhas those cool mercury areas, cant imagine seeing that stuff pooled up. Most of those old mines were never cleaned up either. Fun to rummage around abit if you can get access, which in SLO is always tricky. (I just hopped the fence and went for it, to get to one mine, but I think another mercury mine is right off Old Creek Rd inland of Cambria and you can do a drive by. Interesting group of folks live back there too!!

        • Pfirman

          Dang dude…..Drive by? Interesting group of folks? Sounds like a plot for the next Manson reality show.

          • sectionmaker

            offtopic…but yeah…haha…yeah living on Reds Vitamin C and Mercury…err Meffasumfin.
            I did hear of some Vietnamese living off the land and what gold scraps they could find deep in the Big Sur areas though, heard it wasnt a good idea to go tromp around unannounced. 1990’s.
            I guess with the herb growers everywhere,probably more true now, although I guess legalization is kind of cleaning up that mess. I hate most of those guys anyways, killing wildlife etc for herbs…just grow it in indoors.

        • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

          Isn’t mercury in a mineral form naturally?

          • Rusty Rails

            Yup cinnabar is cooked and the resulting mercury vapor is condensed.

      • alanstorm

        Plenty of old mines! That area has all types of precious metal mining history.
        Silver mines being the biggest producers.
        Pretty much Spaghetti Western scenerio back in the day.

        Was enough to get my wife to camp way out there, forget about any mine exploring.
        I’ll stick to flash flood wash admiration

        • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

          Some are ok, some are super sketch! Most mines around here are well ventilated and dry thanks to the desert; but there are plenty of hazards! If you are ever by Calico ghost town there are a few pretty good ones that are easy to get to.

          • alanstorm

            Haha- I did Calico Days once in the early 90’s trying to sell my carvings.
            Didn’t sell anything but met a girl…..
            I stay out of old mines as a rule

    • Rusty Rails

      Nice. Afton is a magnet for train photographers for the reasons made obvious by your shots. Trains can be scarce on the LA&SL so good catch.

    • annette johnson

      Great shots! How is your wife liking her first trip to the desert?

      • alanstorm

        Amazed at the vastness, but she was cold at night. Next time, I’ll have a proper 4×4 to get away from the humans & warmer night set-up.
        I think somewhere way off Kelbaker Rd & time it with a proper monsoon-lightning fest!

        • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

          I really want to check out the Kelbaker area sometime, it looks amazing! Truth be told, its better to be prepared and embrace the cold than brave the heat of summer. The average low temp in monsoon season is in the 70’s at night near there. If you’re by Annette sometimes the low temperature can be in the 90’s at night 😀

          • annette johnson

            This last summer, the 90’s is almost an understatement. We had many nights, esp in August where it was 110 at 10 pm. Just brutal. ?

          • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

            Holy cow, I bet your AC was running 24/7 and barely keeping up!

          • annette johnson

            It was literally non stop. 25 year old unit too. I had it serviced in the beginning of summer and the AC guy said it was looking good for its age. I think my most expensive bill was $300. Kept it at 78 during the day and 74 at night.

          • alanstorm

            That’s why we went now.
            Did that area in a black Monte Carlo with no AC in mid-Aug before. Almost got stuck trying to cross a dry lake at 100mph.
            Cheating death is fun when you’re young & reckless

        • annette johnson

          Lol. Unfortunately by then you will need to find a way to keep cool! Esp during the monsoon when the night temps are so warm like Mike mentioned. I’ve done a few short hikes around Kelbaker…super cool and definitely lacking humans!

    • Bombillo1

      No carvable wood as far as the eye can see. A real holiday for you.

  • K?ros
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      They say a zero represents nothing, but throw in an extra one, and you got something.

      • osc3_el cerrito

        Good point!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      100 degrees cooler? Man that was a strong cold front!! lol

  • ThomTissy

    If anybody wants to feel a bit better, read about North American droughts here https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Droughts_in_the_United_States – be certain to read the mega drought portion. Definitely not trying to diminish the impacts of climate change but maybe a little historical perspective to cleanse the pallet during this dry period.

    • SacWx

      It’s a good point. Not sure why wet weather is an expectation in California (especially southern) – it’s a gift.

      • Suzan

        I was dropped off in Lebec 33 years ago and it has rained four times since I’ve been here. I came out of a blackout in Gorman in 96 after bedding down with three truckers. There was a dusting of snow, that was the only positive that year.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Did SF really only get 5.59 inches of rain in the 2013-20-4 season?

      • Charlie B

        SF got 12.54” in 2013-14. This is why I rely on Wikipedia as a difinitive resource tool.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Los Angeles received about that much in 1958-59.