Occasional NorCal rain, but dry autumn continues across Southern California

Filed in Uncategorized by on November 6, 2017 2,396 Comments

Damp in NorCal; bone dry in the south

Most of California was extremely warm in October, especially the southern portion of the state. (WRCC)

October was an exceptionally hot month in Southern California, with numerous high temperature records falling across a broad region. Many SoCal sites set new records for their hottest temperatures for so late in the calendar year–well into the triple digits in most places, even near the coast. Most of Northern California was still quite warm, though less anomalously so. Temperatures have finally cooled in recent days back toward seasonably cool levels.

Meanwhile, the rainy season has thus far gotten off to a pretty slow start across most of the state. While most of NorCal has now seen wetting rainfall (and, in some spots, “fire season-ending” accumulations), the southern part of the state has thus far been quite dry so far this autumn. Dry autumns are not necessarily that unusual in Southern California–and, as I’ve previously discussed, do not necessarily foretell a dry winter to come. Last week, it had appeared that a series of relatively moist storm systems might finally bring widespread rainfall to much of the state. Instead, these systems brought mostly light precipitation to Northern California and only drizzle across portions of SoCal.

It has been a very dry autumn so far across most of California, but rather wet in the Pacific Northwest. (WRCC)

 

 

Blocking ridge in Gulf of Alaska: Snow in Seattle, but sunny in SoCal

Recent ridging has shifted somewhat westward from its October position, bringing colder temperatures to the West Coast. (NCEP via ESRL)

A very strong blocking ridge of high pressure has developed over the northern Gulf of Alaska in recent days, leading to a high-amplitude flow pattern over the North Pacific and inducing all kinds of unusual weather to the east. Southern California recent dryness is partially attributable to the atmospheric wave pattern induced by this “boulder in the stream” to our northwest, though weaker subtropical ridging had been the bigger player during much of October. High pressure in this region also tends to result in cold air outbreaks over the western Canadian interior, as cold Arctic air spills southward (and even southwestward) on the east side of the ridge. This strong ridge is no exception: over the weekend, a fairly remarkably early season Arctic outbreak brought rare early November snowfall to sea level in Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle usually only sees snow once or twice a year (and some years, none at all!), making this light dusting one of the earliest on record.

The weekly CFS suggests a high probability that intense high-latitude ridging will persist for at least several weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This unusual cold over the Pacific Northwest, though, is more than counterbalanced by extremely warm temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean just north of Alaska resulting from this ridge. Amazingly, sea ice has yet to form in the Chukchi and Bering Sea (and, remarkably, mostly ice-free seas are still visible in the live webcam view from Utqia?vik (Barrow)). There have been a spate of recent winters exhibiting similar high-latitude blocking patterns, with a resulting “warm Arctic” and “cold continent” pattern developing during successive weeks. There is quite a bit of ongoing research exploring these events and their potential connection to sea ice loss (along with weather extreme-related impacts further to the south).

This kind of pattern is very tricky to forecast for two key reasons. First, blocking ridges have a tendency to be quite persistent–and weather models sometimes have a hard time capturing the self-reinforcing feedback loops that can develop under favorable conditions. Second, the “downstream” effects of large, persistent ridges can be highly dependent on geographic nuance–small shifts the exact position of the ridge relative to the jet stream or nearby mountain ranges, for example, can mean the difference between relentless storminess/Arctic outbreaks and multi-week sunny spells in any particular location. At our relatively low latitude in California, there is also a third option: strong Gulf of Alaska ridges can also cause the subtropical and subpolar jet streams to merge in a fashion that brings large storms to the Pacific Southwest.

 

Modest NorCal rains; little across the south

Light to moderate rainfall accmulation can be expected across northern California over the next 10 days, with little if any over SoCal. (tropicaltidbits.com)

At the moment, it appears that the subtropical jet is just not robust enough to bring any active weather to California. Most models suggest that the Gulf of Alaska ridge is likely to persist for at least the next 10 days, and perhaps quite a bit longer than that. In fact, the weekly CFS forecasts (which were recently shown to have considerable skill on 3-4 week timescales) suggest that it could linger into December.  That doesn’t mean that conditions will be completely dry in California; in fact, model ensemble forecasts still bring widespread light to moderate precipitation to the northern third of California over the next couple of weeks. But Southern California is likely to remain pretty dry for the foreseeable future, and there are no big storms on the horizon in Northern California, either.

La Niña conditions still appear to be developing across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which (as previously discussed) tends to tilt the odds toward a dry winter in Southern California. Portions of the western tropical Pacific are also anomalously warm at the moment which recent work (including some of my own, which I’ll discuss in greater detail in a future post) suggests is favorable for the occurrence of winter ridging near California. At the moment, then, there is some evidence hinting that a pattern similar to the present one may recur with some regularity this winter. As noted above: Gulf of Alaska blocking can be a double-edged sword–typically resulting in relatively dry and stable conditions over California, though occasionally allowing for cold air outbreaks and active jet stream mergers over the East Pacific. But for the next couple of weeks, at least, North Pacific ridging is likely to prevail.

Cool temperatures in the Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean contrast with above-average warmth nearly everywhere else. (NOAA via tropicaltidbits.com)

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  • gedawei

    Just read a very informative article about the efforts UC scientists are making to truly understand snowpack and runoff in the Sierra. Amazing how inadequate our existing data collection sites have been.
    https://www.newsdeeply.com/water/community/2017/11/08/what-do-we-know-about-mountain-snowpack-runoff-far-too-little

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Excellent science based approach. I would totally appreciate others feedback here…

      I mean in my mind information exposure is the first step in broader understanding and better more efficient water management.

  • So, GWof17, posting that 222 hour snowfall chart is all dandy however that’s only part of the story – the real news that we should be making a big deal about is how much is going to happen in less than 120 hours – euro has been consistent in saying snow will fall in quantity:
    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111212/california/ecmwf_acc_snow_california_120.png

  • Thunder98
    • CHeden

      I’m with you!
      Takes a real geek to appreciate an altostratus deck!

      • Pfirman

        How so?

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      This looks like a good sign this coming midweek.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Looking at my facebook history we had a major flop storm system on this day in 2011. Models showed 1-2 inches of rain and most the area got Trace – 0.15.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Interesting, I was in San Diego that day for veteran’s day weekend and it rained hard there.

      • Fairweathercactus

        I think the low dived south and brought an offshore flow to LA County.

  • Fairweathercactus

    It could be the greatest game of all time so far San Fran vs NY.

  • NAM is suggesting 8-12 inches of snow for crest over the next 2.5 days.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017111218/nam3km_asnow_swus_61.png

  • David

    Local weather report said 10% chance of rain in Paradise, but it just started raining here.

  • tomocean
  • Who here thinks that the upcoming round of storms is basically going to be the same outcome as 360 or say days ago? Won’t be home for hours, if anyone is bored they should compare second half of November last year to the current forecasts this year.

    • jstrahl

      That outcome wasn’t all that great, November ended up about 2/3 of normal. Just saying.

      • Disagree – I was interviewing for work at Donner summit Thanksgiving week and there was mad amounts of high quality snow, so maybe down in Berkeley maybe ho hum but up on the crest it was gangbusters. Ski season kicked off turbospeed I would know they got me hired rapid fire because they moved forward opening date.

        • Patrick from Stockton

          I remember driving home from SoCal the day after Thanksgiving and it was raining hard all the way over the Grapevine last year. Even some flurries going over the pass

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i did not think we would see this

    URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    144 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

    …MOUNTAIN SNOW POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT…

    .A storm system will move into the area on Wednesday and continue
    through Thursday night. Latest model forecasts are not in
    agreement in timing and snow levels. However confidence is
    increasing that a winter storm will occur with accumulations up 8
    to 12 inches, with localized amounts to 18 inches. Combination of
    wind and snow will bring difficult mountain travel.

    CAZ068-069-131400-
    /O.NEW.KSTO.WS.A.0002.171115T1800Z-171117T1200Z/
    Western Plumas County/Lassen Park-
    West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-
    144 PM PST Sun Nov 12 2017

    …WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
    LATE THURSDAY NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET…

    * WHAT…Heavy snow possible. Windy conditions possible. Plan on
    difficult travel conditions, including during the evening
    commute on Wednesday. Damage to trees and power lines is
    possible. Total snow accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with
    localized amounts up to 18 inches, are possible. Wind gusts 35
    to 40 mph with gusts 50 to 70 mph on the highest peaks.

    * WHERE…Western Plumas County/Lassen Park and the West Slope
    Northern Sierra Nevada.

    * WHEN…From Wednesday morning through late Thursday night.

    * SNOW LEVELS…Heaviest accumulations above 6000 feet.

    * ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Significant reductions in visibility are
    possible under periods of heavy snow and windy conditions.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant
    snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue
    to monitor the latest forecasts.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      vary early for a winter storm watch dont you all think? or do it sound about right

      • Sounds “great” to me.

      • IMHO they should have issued it days ago but they probably didn’t want to get burned and understandably so models were funky for a bit however they keyed into this upcoming onslaught days ago.

        • Sublimesl

          Watch = happening within 48 hours

          • See how it’s outside that window though? If models ring true this is a serious potentially life threatening storm for anyone moronic enough to ignore forecasts. Lots of people with the wrong tires and no chains running around with this one I guarantee it.

          • Cap’n
      • Sublimesl

        Yes, sinces its technically outside the 48 hour window. Maybe it should be a new category Winter Storm Watch Watch

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      From the NWS Reno office…
      “With all this in mind, snow levels are currently projected to
      remain near 7000 feet in the Tahoe area, but could vary between
      about 6800 feet and 7500-8000 feet Wednesday night and Thursday
      morning. With this variation in mind, if you have plans to
      travel over the main Sierra passes (80 and 50), it would be wise
      to go by early afternoon Wednesday to avoid VERY LONG DELAYS
      which could last until snow winds down later on Thursday. ”

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Unbiased Observer

      Sure seems like this is causing our baja ridge.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      I’m actually hoping for a late season hurricane or two. Hopefully they stay away from any landmass and create upwelling to cool down the SST’s a bit.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Imagine hurricane moisture mixing with an AR, oh boy that would be awesome

      • Chris

        A hurricane in the E PAC this time of year would curve right long before reaching the US.
        Best would be for a W PAC or one near Hawaii.

    • AntiochWx

      That anomalous ridging down there keeping SoCal dry has been doing work on the SSTs.

  • Yolo Hoe

    BA just posted — he’s in cahoots with Crash, though he’s trying to keep his cool.

    Walked the upper slopes of Judah at Sugar Bowl this morning — they are plastered with 6 – 12 inches of high strength Sierra cement that won’t be melting for awhile — really brought to life how avalanche dynamics work once some additional storm layers pile on top.

  • Chowpow

    Eureka NWS is at 5.03″ for the season (128% of normal), last year we were sitting at 12.22″. I’m at 6.39″ and it’s looking like that might get doubled during this next week and a half. Winds are already picking up higher than forecast.

  • 49ers win, and that means we will have a wet winter.

    • David

      Yes!

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Rain’s gonna come soon.

  • RunningSprings6250

    What’s with this solid thick cloud deck today? Am I late to the party?!

  • Thunder98
  • Boiio

    Systems coming up this week look like the type of storms that produce big winners and big losers in the Bay Area. Favored areas of the SC and North Bay mountains could see some impressive numbers, while areas down in the flats see not so impressive totals. Unless you live in an area where the local topography squeezes out a moist SW flow, prepare to be disappointed.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Agreed. Be prepared to hear whining from rain shadowed folks. Me included. ?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      That would be me (I think)

    • Chris

      This was a prevalent set up most of last year.
      Where I live in Morgan Hill, we had many storms produce 2 inch or more in 24 hrs, yet many other areas had about half of that.
      Santa Rosa was another “valley” area that received heavy rain last year.

    • Rusty Rails

      Make it so!

    • AntiochWx

      I’m all ready preparing for a disappointment. These types of events for the east bay get robbed by Mt. Diablo. I need that W to NW moisture flow or a very strong jet streak to get great amounts here.

  • matt
    • molbiol

      Here is another pic taken at the same time. Given the pattern the models are showing for the foreseeable future it looks like we are going to be getting a lot of these book of Revelation-type sunsets. Westerly flow coupled with E/W oriented subtropical ridging to our south and high level moisture streaming from the SW and even a possible tropical system (no, it won’t bring any precip to Socal) to provide additional high clouds will all conspire to bring colorful evenings to the desert. Overnight lows still have yet to drop below freezing here and we may be heading to record territory WRT latest first fall freeze…

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2abfbad091e71f7471f81a9675fcee01a8992651f8dd5fd825a8dca16e4c3b6b.jpg

      • RunningSprings6250

        We’ve hit freezing once…..in early September, but not since… woke up to 50F today!

        • RandomTreeInSB

          Really? 50F? Here in Santa Barbara it was 49F this morning!

          • molbiol

            With such high 500mb heights and inversions, overnight lows tend to be warmer in the mountains than the valleys. Bear mtn and Mountain high ski resorts are in very serious trouble….Until we get a cold low pressure system or cold offshore-flow type air mass, this pattern will continue

          • RandomTreeInSB

            I see. Sucks to hear that.
            The weather forecast shows lows in the mid 30’s for places like Wrightwood and Running Springs. Still above average but less ridiculous than 50F…

          • RunningSprings6250
          • Phil(ontario)

            Those are average lows….for Me!

          • redlands

            Shouldnt Big Bear have lower temps it being almost mid – November

          • Cap’n

            This could be their first experimental season taking mountain biking into December. That’s what’s coming down the pipeline.

        • Cap’n

          That’s nuts.

        • redlands

          i think that was in September 20th-25th u hit 32 — cause early September had temps 100-115 down in Reddlands, Ca

          • RunningSprings6250

            Definitely ??????

          • redlands

            Redlands, Ca hit 47 for November 12th -2017 in Redlands, Ca – down the hill at 1500feet — u only got 50 at Running Springs at 6200ft — interesting

          • redlands

            Redlands, Ca dropped to 47 during that period for lows — so it would be possible for Running Springs, Ca to drop to 32

          • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

            You part of the University? UoR?

  • Cap’n
    • Pfirman

      Yoloing is fun too.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Promises, promises. WUnderground predicts .24″ here for Thursday’s storm while Accu predicts .04″. Weak offshore flow returns this weekend before another trough flirts with the Central Coast to start the Thanksgiving week.

  • Hollow Scene (The Desert)
    • Pfirman

      What is that wood formation in the second photo?

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Looks like something put there to hold up part of the hillside. Prevent a rock slide?

      • Bombillo1

        BigHorn Mine.. Subsequent wet years took out an outbuilding. There’s 5 million in buried gold there, I’ve got the map..

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        It was the ore bin and stamp mill that used to be there for the mine

  • Bombillo1

    Sure glad disqus changed the up vote/down vote icon to the new delta look. Important change there. They can hold off another year or 2 about changing the size of picture download files or short clips. Thanks disqus, that was bugging me.

  • annette johnson

    Looks like we had pretty similar weather that Hollow Scene was experiencing in the Angeles National Forest…serene and calm on the Colorado River. I left the Phoenix area late this morning at 87F and overcast skies (my LEAST favorite weather). https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49bfca9379ea179c0067702df3059c49c54f6771831b43c7fe2ecbc218c7eaee.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e75924bc8817c945e50484fc6c91f69bcaf2ffdcefaf963c31f6615818a0f597.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b705fa2850df23ab9268a902e066f3337aa5c6c0557e1283c00579dd341c4611.jpg At the Colorado River, cloudy skies and a comfortable 75F.

    • annette johnson

      On the trip back I decided to get up close and personal lol with a statuesque 30’+ Saguaro ?off of I-10 near Quartzite. It looked fairly healthy and was obviously home to some cactus wren. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/084c02a28e9712eac2977ee4f7552b4420437f8f7411beec8dfacd9c69e4521a.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e061bf009c04998a28e78eec1c0ba881c67269c66777865737bfc06de78c08d0.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1c7cdbba5f59d45e7a67ae5fbc0d2a2be828be7840ae41379faad7042102dc3b.jpg Will also attach a picture of it’s shallow root system.

      • Pfirman

        Long time ago I had a landlord who looked like that.

        • annette johnson

          My dad always had rental properties. He was a pretty good guy but he could be a real prick sometimes.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Goes with the profession. Owners expect tenants to take care of their places. A greatly misplaced expectation…

          • Pfirman

            Neighbors can be similarly disappointed about fellow neighbors.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            It’s tough to have high standards, and a work ethic that takes pride in one’s surroundings, maintaining them and tending to the curb appeal, while seeing others who don’t give a crap.

          • Pfirman

            Keep being that shining example.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Thank you. One of my best high’s is accomplishment, getting things done. I’m kind of obsessive, a perfectionist, but I know no matter how much I do, there is always more waiting. I’m blessed with common sense, a critical eye and the energy to get the most out of the day.

            Doing, Doing, Doing, one day – done… ( ^ :

          • Pfirman

            Time for bed.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Yep, me too. Pleasant dreams Mr. Firman. Tomorrow we get some rain. It shall be.

          • Pfirman

            Not happening so far and not likely later. Pfirman is the last name I was born with but do not possess now.

          • annette johnson

            Definitely. I’ve seen some pretty bad stuff over the years. My daughter is renting with a few roommates and I told her to take care of it like it was her own. Doing good so far.

      • Fairweathercactus

        Hey glad to see my family is doing well.

        • annette johnson

          I was hoping I would hear from you…I thought you would appreciate seeing the giants in your family!

    • Bombillo1

      Second shot on the river with the palms looks like Egypt. Exotic. A river in the desert is oxymoronic, cool.

      • annette johnson

        I never get tired of the area around the river, especially after a long drive through the desert.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      Im not used to seeing that place without the summer crowd lol

      • annette johnson

        Isn’t that crazy? It was so quiet it was almost eerie. Seemed like just a couple weeks ago it was busy!

  • Unbiased Observer

    The 00z GFS is not your friend, hopefully the Euro is.

  • Bombillo1

    Raining now. Calling for an inch. It is quite warm and still. 50 mi N. of Redding

    • Pfirman

      It’s just the idiot stepbrother of what is happening up in Seattle.

      • Bombillo1

        I know, but it is the only family I have…

        • Pfirman

          At least you have family.

          • Bombillo1

            We call him Rain Man.

          • Cap’n

            Gotta go to Kmart.

          • Cap’n

            You’re my family, uncle Pfirman.

          • Pfirman

            More like a carbuncle, sorry.

  • thebigweasel
  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    NWS out of Sac. This is their graphic for the area for tomorrow. Hope it come true.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de76d3ef8a0f7da25611123de98d5baf42143251f2194fe9b7d9d4063afee8c3.png

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      these <.10 for San Jose maps are really starting to get annoying. This would be three in a row. Can't wait for some strong rainfall to come down the pipes. Still got my money for Thursday to finally get our foot in the door for winter.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Going back down to deal with a renovation in progress in SJ on Weds. For sure it would be nice to see that forecast come to fruition. Driving in that though will be a challenge coming back to Rancho Cordova.

    • Bombillo1

      Wow, down to 1/2 inch or less almost everywhere? This is disappointing. I was hoping Daniel would be terribly wrong about this season but one should not bet against him too often.

      • Cap’n

        This is just tomorrow-Tuesday system. But yeah, as has been mentioned, the bigger one Wed-Thursday will be a soul crusher to those who don’t benefit from orographics.

        • Bombillo1

          I don’t feel good about it. The energy is fractured and quite disorganized.

        • Euro showing dumpage still for 00z and GFS in lockstep:
          https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111300/gfs_asnow_swus_17.png

          • Cap’n

            This will be a nice respectable snow event for 7K and up, but nothing monumental. Soda Springs at 7K averages 50″ for November. I’d be stoked if they end up with 2-3 feet for sure. Below 7K is the infamous wait-and-see how much moisture is left when the cold air arrives. Could get a foot or an inch, I’ll take it, water is on the way in some form.

      • Pfirman

        He deleted my comment that basically called him a party-pooper.

        • Bombillo1

          He might be getting that LA edge, you know…

          • Pfirman

            Lack of rain can do that to one.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    00z got a bit dryer, but still hanging in there with that Thursday storm.

  • Fairweathercactus

    You seen one GFS run you seen them all these days for So Cal.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      So, it won’t rain in SoCal until the Browns get their first win?

  • Something struck me as odd. Remarkable how similar they are 2.5 days apart – the models have locked on to a solution and aren’t letting go!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a644350317c0821edb64e8b64ba9fb17bdae2df1c72ed545e1e0463a90537dac.gif
    https://media.giphy.com/media/WjAkrAvSA0XV6/giphy.gif

    • Crouching Dallas

      (crawls out of law school library cubicle)

      “GNARBOMBS AWAY!”

      (returns to study more Torts)

  • Taz & Storm Master

    whats wait for the 06z GFS whats not for get the GFS loves to flip flop a lot the 0z GFS could this be a bad run

    • It held. Locked on. Snowfall at Echo/KW went down…by 1 inch. 44in. Event begins in less than 50 hours and ends in roughly twice that. Same thing the Euro did. Magic.
      SoCal gets the rain…shaft. Prognosis: Atacama.

  • Bombillo1

    Current event + Wed-thurs + 19th, 20th & 21st events all got big haircuts. Can’t spin this any other way. Failing to materialize, not an orographics issue.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Not happy but not surprised

    • Cap’n

      Wait a minute, according to snow maps we got a 50 year storm coming! In all seriousness, the blog morale is in trouble here if you’re already sitting at your monthly average with rain coming this week and still bummed out… Help!!!!!!!! I’m not surprised seeing it all downsized, it’s just so common. When they show these huge events they nearly always fizzle. The 33″ of snow posted about on the snow maps here on the blog for Truckee are being shown by NOAA for my Thursday forecast as Rain/snow mix with possible snow accumulations of 2-4″, and I live on the snowy side of town. If we’re seeing storm fizzle like you mentioned above by January it might be panic time. As we stand, you might hit double digits this month?

      • I have no idea what he’s talking about, latest euros and GFS runs are holding steady, just double checked and nothing has changed from last night, dumpage dumpage dumpage still for both models.

        • Cap’n

          High elevation event like I’ve been saying all along. This is no big deal, but stoked on the water.

          “* SNOW LEVELS: Latest model guidance does agree on pushing the
          bulk of the subtropical moisture through ahead of the cold
          front. As such, snow levels in the Tahoe Basin could see snow
          M levels remain in the 7,500-8,000` during the bulk of the
          precipitation through Wednesday evening.”

          “Overall 1 to 2 feet still looks solid
          above 8,000 feet, but areas between 6500-7500 feet in the Tahoe
          area are lower confidence and are trending towards more rainfall
          than snowfall with about 2-4″ of accumulation possible after the
          cold front moves through Thursday.”

      • Bombillo1

        Never too early to panic. Sept here did not happen. Oct was 1/3 normal. Nov as you said we are already at average but this week’s precip has been cut in half which was looking to make Nov a good catch up month. The upper air pattern of the past 2 weeks has not changed appreciably, being quite intransigent with low stationed off Wash again. The trough is having a terrible time trying to dig south. Yesterday’s rain turned into mist with high ceilings this morning and thin cloud cover. The ridge that is believably building in behind this week’s instability will take us into Dec dry. I do not like SCal getting nothing. It is a reflection of the state /strength of our resident blocking ridge. Daniel said we are screwed. That’s it…. It now goes to jury.

        • Shane Ritter

          All it takes to make a bad year great is 3 major storms in January that each bring 75″ of snow. Suddenly it’s a wet year.

          • Bombillo1

            This is true. I just don’t like having to draw for an inside straight in January…

          • Shane Ritter

            see, i dont look at it like that. we arent in that situation until mid February, then we start to have pray for a lucky draw. But we could have a 200% Dec, 200% January, and a 150% Feb, and be begging for the water to stop. We are literally in the first 5 minutes of a football game down 0-3 and already screaming at the TV that its over.

          • Bombillo1

            This is why watching the game with Bombillo has added drama.

          • Shane Ritter

            do you usually have to buy a new tv after halftime when down 10-7? lol 🙂

          • Bombillo1

            When you’re a Chargers fan, yes.

          • Shane Ritter

            oh shit, i see why your so traumatized. your probably sweating bullets when your up 28-3 at the start of the 4th huh?

          • Bombillo1

            If you want to understand the ax murderer you need to look at his childhood experience…

        • Cap’n

          The law of probability following an average year following a huge year would more than likely call for a below average year, we should mentally prepare for that. I agree about so cal it’s looking grim.

          • redlands

            Its already grim gor Southern Calif

  • RunningSprings6250

    So far our low is a toasty 46F here on August 13th.

    • redlands

      Wow the heatwave has made u go crazy. You mean November 13th. Redlands, Ca down the hill got fown to 44

      • Pfirman

        Sarcasm is not for everybody. Nor is irony.

  • Shane Ritter

    here are my thoughts on the future ridging being shown. 1, it wont be as intense as shown now, because thats what the models have done all year, forecast a huge ridge, then slowly chip it back as it arrives. 2, i dont think our dry spell will last longer than 10 days, but really i think we get 5-7 days of dry, starting next monday, so maybe the week of thanksgiving is nice, then the next we will start to see storms again. why? because the EPO, WPO, and NAO only go positive for a few days (22-25th) then go negative again, plus the PNA stays negative the whole time (at least its forecast to). So id bet it doesnt last very long.

  • David

    Nice steady rain here this morning. Paradise, 1600′

    • Howard Goodman

      You must live in the lower part of Paradise I know my parents use to livr off Wagstaff and it was a little over 2000 ft

      • Admode (Susanville)

        My house on bille was at 1800″

        • David

          I’m on Circlewood. Just off of upper Neal Road.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Cool. My aunt and uncle live on circlewood.

          • David

            Small world. It’s a nice street. I’ve only lived here for three years. Lived in Chico before moving up here.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Yes it is. Ptown born and raised. Lived there for 23 years.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Wow close to sea level. ??

          • Admode (Susanville)

            haha, whoops

  • Howard Goodman

    Yes and up above Paradise even more , was raining hard for awhile ,63 of an inch

  • Tom & Koyano Gray

    Well, this sucks! The way that ridge is projected to lay athwartships, cutting off north and south. And here we set with what in deep winter we’d call a pineapple express aimed at So Cal, but with nothing to set off any of that nice heavy tropical rain it potentially carries were just setting her watching the all the pretty high clouds roll over head. Oh I forgot, a slight chance for Thursday.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    For what’s worth… The models have trended more south with the midweek’s system. Could be the South 1/3 of California’s only shot for some rain for now. At least from LA and northward. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fdfdc98c67e0ca2e9ff1dd20856c7cdc41931952638231bbf71201f33418fcf.png

  • Taz & Storm Master

    i think DEC and JAN and FEB may be MAR is when we will get more stormy here in CA right now we are in transition moth too where we are still dry at times but getting some rain has well but most of it will come DEC JAN FEB and MAR

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      That pretty much sums up a normal year

      • RunningSprings6250

        That’s why he’s Storm Master ™?

  • RandomTreeInSB

    For what’s worth… The models have trended more south with the midweek’s system. Could be the South 1/3 of California’s only shot for some rain for now. At least from LA and northward.


    A weak front will work its way down the coast Wednesday evening
    and early Thursday morning. Cloud will increase through evening
    over SLO and SBA counties while the increasing cyclonic flow and
    onshore trends should be enough to bring some low clouds to the
    LA and VTA coasts. Rain will likely develop north of the city of
    SLO towards dawn. All mdls now agree that rain is likely for SLO
    and SBA counties Thursday morning as the front moves on through.
    The EC is a little slower than the GFS/NAM. That trend continues
    as the GFS brings rain to VTA county in the Afternoon and the to
    LA county in the evening. The EC hold rain off for VTA county
    until the evening and then LA county after mid night. Both mdls
    weaken the front substantially by the time it reaches VTA county
    and rainfall amounts will be much less for the VTA/LA counties.
    The Central Coast could see a quarter to up to a half inch the
    interior of SLO/SBA counties should recieve between a tenth and
    quarter of an inch. As is almost always the case the foothills
    north of Cambria could see up to an inch of rain. VTA and LA
    counties will be lucky to a tenth of an inch of rain from this
    system. Snow will really not be an issue with this system. “

  • CHeden

    Check out these 500mb wind/heights charts through the LR. The first image is yesterday’s initialization, the second image is for the Wed. storm and the third is the setup at 384hrs.
    As you can see, the generic pattern is remarkably similar throughout the period, with California’s sensible weather being variously impacted by both upper level anticyclonic flow centered over the SW/Cent. Mexico and more surface-based cyclonic flow in the NE Pac as part of a large Omega block centered near -160N. By and large, the heavy black line roughly delineates where the edges of the two flows are. As we noted a few days ago, these two vertically separated flows have shown a habit of remaining intact, with little interaction between the two to help wring out the moisture.
    As for the forecast, in the south, the anticyclonic flow will be bringing a steady SW flow over Cent/SoCal, but mostly in the form of high cloudiness with some precip over/near orographically favored ridgetops. In the north, as long as the trough and associated Omega block remains intact, there will be a series of lows dropping SSW into the trough with outrunning tails/fronts sweeping inland. In between these two complementary flows, a narrow AR will set up with minimal associated dynamics other than orographic enhancement.
    ATTM, based on what I’m seeing precip-wise from the current juicy flow aloft over Cent/SoCal (hardly anything), I’m inclined to remain pessimistic (as I was several days ago) for any unusually heavy or widespread precip event(s)….or at least until the Baja ridge decides to take a siesta or a cold low forms offshore to help break up the high.
    One final note, is that there are hints that after the Wed/Thurs storms matures, a flow undercutting the block may start to gather some strength. If so, a more potent and southerly oriented jet may start to evolve and bring some serious energy eastward. Note this only a wild guess with low a likelihood of coming to fruition, but something to watch out for in the next 4-5 days, IMHO.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2703a701bf1dd367c35940ef98ac3043e5a5194028e6e6af2a3fd6f3b52d5c6c.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d2f4a500d3ca0dfc03a8c5ebec668226111254bf5452ad9971a6b1ad8461292d.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c11c95a0290aeb47b9793bdae898b6c573c1e7a500232c1da88421100936d790.gif

    • 564dm is kinda the broad brushed rain ‘line’? These are a lot easier on my eyes then the 500mb RH posts.

      • CHeden

        Not really a rainline, per se. Just that the type and origination of the precip south of the line (AR-ish) will be different in nature than north of the line (frontal-ish…LoL :).

    • jstrahl

      Thanks. If i may, i’d like to find out what the hints that you speak of are, in the final para. Just hoping for some free training in reading weather charts.:-)

      • CHeden

        Kinda tough to explain, but what I’m looking at is how I think the blocking pattern over the Pacific is going to eventually evolve.
        At present and through Wednesday, it’s an Omega block…but over time it gradually evolves into a Rex Block pattern with a secondary Omega signature. What’s different about a Rex Block is that a narrow jet will sometimes break through in between the teleconnected high and low cells and force the jet to re-consolidate just downstream. This is similar to what we saw in the early Winter pattern last year..except the block was slightly further east and bit more amplified. And, as we saw last year, when you are downstream of a reconsolidating jet, good things can happen.
        Plus my spidey senses tell me something may be brewing.

        • jstrahl

          Thanks. A hunch, in other words, based upon what’s visible, taking it further down the line.

          • CHeden

            Pretty much.
            But, I do have an advantage in that I’ve seen stubborn blocks in the same location break down this way.

          • jstrahl

            Alright! Hoping it happens this time too.

  • CHeden

    ANNND, on the local front, sure looks bumpy up my way in NorCal this a .m.
    A pocket of cool air has worked inland and things are obviously unstable.
    Will be looking for another convergence line to set up, but exactly where is still hazy…plus we can’t rule out a rogue cell going convective even if a CL doesn’t form. Could be an interesting day!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f674075b4719ad9150303ad7153a7f8718e1c8ccb9e612edc16bde6902044a7.jpg

    • CHeden

      HRRR showing a CL setting up ENE of Redding this afternoon, with Cottonwood on the SW tip of the CL. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dff68688d34c37c9f382f669070e56fbbc055687b0f367130196f79790007610.png

      • If it wasn’t for your good postings I would never have heard of a
        census designated place called Cottonwood. :))

        • Bombillo1

          2Plu, you need to get out more. Cottonwood-Red Bluff was where the new Branson West was going in. Until the crash of 2008.

          • Indoor plumbing would have been great for that area.

          • Bombillo1

            Toilet paper would be a break-thru.

          • Wasn’t that the problem. . . get TP to not break-through?

          • CHeden

            The early 2000’s were brimming with visions of major retail expansion, especially in Anderson, plus Dell Web was coming in. Then “pooof” all we got was a Walmart, a theater and a stripmall of some poorly stocked/priced factory outlet stores.
            “Then I guess she had to crash
            Valium would have helped that bash”.
            http://www.amiright.com/misheard/song/walkonthewildside.shtml

          • Pfirman

            Hauled hay a few times to the auction yard.

        • CHeden

          Ya, we tend to fly under the radar (no pun intended).
          Our post office was opened in 1852. As a stagecoach stop, it used to be the “hangout” being the half-way point between Redding and Red Bluff. Lot’s of stories of some sordid type of activities. I guess that’s why everyone’s kept their mouths shut all these years.

      • jstrahl

        Damn, can’t that line just north of the Gate move a touch further south?:-)

        • CHeden

          Yup,
          Lots of altostratus to keep you amused, though.
          LoL.

  • Howard Goodman

    Either I just heard thunder or a big tree fell over somewhere in the forest AND THEY DO MAKE NOISE even if no one here’s it

    • CHeden

      Thunder most likely. A nice squall line is lifting NNE right over you with imbedded pockets of heavy rain.

    • Bombillo1

      Or a busted banjo string.

      • Howard Goodman

        No deliverance people around here closest one is 8 miles

        • Bombillo1

          A distinct advantage for you. This place considers micro-cephalic a beauty mark…

          • Pfirman

            Do rent rooms in the winter? I know, I know, non-sequitor.

          • Bombillo1

            Pfirman, Thanks for asking but we are closed except for a guy that takes the whole property on Tgiving week. I try and get everything into a Feb 10th to June 15th season. Then re-open in the fall. Mid summer is too warm for trout nor man. Otherwise doing repairs here or travel.

          • Howard Goodman

            I think most of theirs is caused by excessive POT smoking or as they call it “their Medicine

          • Howard Goodman

            And just down the road in Oroville they have nothing

          • Harpo (Chico)

            A few hundredths at the Chico airport. Light rain wetting the streets here in town.

    • Bombillo1

      Howard, how much for today if I may ask? We’re at .41 but the barometer has actually risen a tad…

      • Howard Goodman

        I looked 10 min. ago .96 it’s rain good so in a few minutes it should be an even inch

        • Howard Goodman

          Stirling City is only 4.6 miles as the crow fly’s but I have the west Branch of the Feather in between and at 9:30 they had .46

          • Howard Goodman

            My gauge that measures 100ths ran over into the out container the manual one now has 1 1/4

    • Pfirman

      I think this current storm door is Dutch and the bottom half is closed.

  • An 11/11 update from TahoeWeatherBlog. Someone here mentioned this blog a few weeks ago. Blog has some very good info on it.
    http://www.tahoeweatherblog.com/2017/11/slight-pattern-shift-to-wetter-warmer.html

  • RunningSprings6250

    Sunrise over Mordor….. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5171e11439ecbcc28241555af09a4272c6198ffb47b208237d8a21ad57c8c5c4.jpg

    I mean SoCal ??????. That’s San G. on the far left.

  • honzik

    SCMtns update; It was raining lightly on the way into the valley this morning. Sunny down in the valley and over the Monterey Bay, but the clouds were hugging mountains with a few showers. That’s the first of the two pictures below, the second one is of a beautiful fall morning on Saturday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3d57c99783d54df40e005003a7bf070e4e8629ab032f905c7e24b4ea23aaf537.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eca7405e3205f331f0f3750e47f9c66221902befd84957d5ad7e169adb20fe23.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      Looks like you won’t be emptying any goat buckets soon.

      • honzik

        True. It’s not very full (1-2″ from the last rain). I’ll take a picture after the rain on Wednesday, maybe with a cameo from one of my goats.

        • Bombillo1

          A decent goat shot is worth at least 10 up-votes.

    • Bombillo1

      Seems like a disaster for the ski resorts. The old saw used to be if the resorts could open by thanksgiving it would be a good year, have to open by Christmas or they are looking at filing BK. 5 or 6 inches at 9,000′ feet is not really laying down any kind of a serious base.

      • AlTahoe

        They can still salvage a season if the conditions are good by presidents day ski week. I remember back to back years in 1999 and 2000 where there was no snow on new years day in Tahoe. Then the storm train came in and conditions were great for the rest of the season. If we reach mid January with no snow then it will be a disaster.

        • Pfirman

          And then there was the year with plenty of snow New Year’s Eve, which was all gone by New Year’s Day. 96?

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            Haha, that day nobody could travel anyway as most roads were flooded over. There were propane tanks floating down the Truckee and water at the deck of River Ranch.

          • Pfirman

            Left a friend’s place somewhere around Martis New Year’s Day morning and had a harrowing drive down 80 to Woodpile. Pretty sure it closed shortly after. Water everywhere. Trees down everywhere. Was lucky to get through without major incident.

          • David

            My family was staying at a friends house just south of Tahoe City. We didn’t return to Chico until Jan.4.

          • AlTahoe

            Yeah Dec 1996 had all time great conditions and then the New Years AR washed it all away.

          • Pfirman

            In the blink of an eye. It was astonishing how fast all the snow storage went out to sea or down to Reno, heh.

          • Darin

            That was the 1861/1862 flood as well. Heavy early snows followed by heavy rain. Of course, the dams and reservoir system of today didn’t exist then and they had Tulare Lake then and we don’t know.

          • Charlie B

            I remember that one well.
            –Methuselah

          • alanstorm

            It was a bit more than that from the accounts.
            Likely repeated Arctic Outbreaks & heavy snows followed immediately by extreme subtropical Pineapple Express AR storms.
            Same deal Dec ’64 record flooding

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            That event in ’96-’97 lead to the highest recorded flood waters ever in Yosemite valley. Those who were there that week said upper Yosemite Falls was a 1/4 mile wide at it’s peak. Such force coming down between all of the water falls entering the valley that is was literally shaking the ground. Camp Curry was swept away. Major flood damage in the areas where the Merced and Tuolumne rivers flow out into the Central Valley. In fact, if one drives along interstate 205 out of Tracy toward Manteca, you can see where property owners rebuilt their homes on elevated mounds, above the floodplain. That was pretty close to an ARKstorm.

          • Pfirman

            Good to hear from someone who was there.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Not really anything before mid Dec is a bonus for most resorts. Usually whatever is around that time is from snow making and not mother nature. Last year saw mostly rain up until Dec and most resorts were just getting going around the post Christmas time rush.

        • scott

          You’re right. Some resorts don’t even have enough staff to adequately open the entire resort until mid December anyways. Last Thansgiving was great snow wise, yet Mammoth only kept their main resort open until almost Christmas week.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Pfirman

      The turkey will be overdone.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Today’s GFS looks warmer for Thanksgiving than the EC. The ridge/warmth on the EC seems transient, while the GFS seems to keep it in place for several days.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Ugh, I hope not. I hate the hot West/Cold East pattern with a passion.

      • alanstorm

        I think meant to type Thanksgiving Meat.

        So far, it’s been merely mild up here, not hot or cold

    • weathergeek100

      Things like this, unfortunately, tend to verify.

    • thlnk3r

      This would be a rare, devastating record-shattering unprecedented event on gobble gobble day.

      On a serious note, I’ll pay attention when the models are in agreement.

  • ben

    Quarter inch this past hour for ACV airport.

  • redlands

    Thats not good for Southern California. Redlands, Ca at my station —- March 2017 thru November 2017 9 months or 275 days and only 0.79 of rain. Not good !. This rain season 2017-2018 – July rain start is the driest ever and is on pace to break the driest year ive ever recorded if it continues the same pattern. Would have to check the exact amount and what rain season, however it was under 3 inches — like 2.86. I know Ian up in Running Springs at 6200ft has similiar measly amounts. Its also weird Redlands at 1200 to 2000 ft being colder at night than Running Springs at 6200ft

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      It just stopped raining in SoCal in mid Feb other than insignificant rain events since then.

      • Thunder98

        It stopped rain in Santa Maria in early May.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It seems that a lot of the rainy seasons in recent years here in Socal have ended at the end of February and followed by only one or two minor events afterward. March has become a very dry and warm month in recent years, and I hope that is a trend that doesn’t continue!

  • Fairweathercactus

    I will make a lock pick of the week. I will say that rain does not get any more south of Ventura. LA County will get shafted again.

    • alanstorm

      Based on eternal pessimism?

      • David

        Seems almost optimistic for Cactus to consider there will be any rain at all….

    • Darin

      It’s as if you a drawing a line in the sand and daring the storms to pass it. 😉

  • alanstorm
    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Thats over 6 days correct ?

      • alanstorm

        Monday to Sunday

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I’m from Missouri (well, not really) show me the after storm totals and then I’ll know. Until then –

      On a positive note – BRING IT!

      • Jason Jackson Willamette
        • alanstorm

          See? You said “show me”, so it made like Louis CK & “showed you”

          • Pfirman

            Whoa, it did. Circumsized too.

          • alanstorm

            TMI PFIRMAN!!!!!!

          • Pfirman

            I prefer frank to coy.

          • Cap’n

            Freakin’ Louis I don’t care I still love that guy.

        • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

          This is the classic 3 wave series we were discussing last week. 3 storms in broader LP system, and having a warm zone, the front, and post frontal cool/showery area. Brief calm(er) weather before the next system. When its a really intesne system sometime its stays dreary and rainy the whole in the hills due to orographics, even with not real system. Generally though some clearing as you can see between systems here.

          So then after this I would not at all be surprised to see some hi pressure for next week, which is what looks to be the case, prelim at least. I’ll take it, going to be in San Diego for Turkey day. Sorry So cal, i know you want rain, and I want you to get it too, but I will take some sunny mild weather when I am there…

          Just turn on the next cycle the following week please!!

          • Chris

            Oh you are high maintenance and you just lost some friends in So Cal!
            But I’m in Nor Cal, so no offense taken ?

    • AlTahoe

      Oh Jesus you know as well as I do that if you post these charts every single user will start complaining if they don’t hit or exceed the numbers posted for their location. 🙂
      For instance you can flip the number around for San Jose (.38″) and that will be the most likely total for them.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      3″ of rain ? yes please

    • jstrahl

      Doesn’t make sense to see a narrow band of under an inch right below the Gate into Contra Costa County before the i”+ area resumes.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    unfortunately I am traveling and can’t watch this but others might find it interesting. Overall I have found these updates from local NWS offices to be very informative.
    https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/930154770165354497

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    For some reason, today’s 12z runs of the CMC and ECMWF want to drop a low right over SoCal next week. It’s not nice to tease us like that.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/007e5e7ea067dc9a2745639ced5ddf0a515d2e7b744994e7c9266df1e4a97e33.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ec757a33256ffc02d06dea1294b7c73521b2cf9de9d31c6c84e61feebaca0ac.gif

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      It’s better to see that than to see a ridge of steroids like 3 weeks ago.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Unless the subtropical ridge (Hadley Cell) to our south weakens or shifts east, this scenario seems unlikely in the near term. However, it’s a positive sign to see the moisture to our south/southwest.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      Outliner

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        More than likely, foreigners toying with us. 12z GFS did’s depict this, while the Canucks and Europeans did.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Hopefully the 0Z runs of both the Euro and GFS continue with this trend! Or did you say the 12Z GFS didn’t depict this?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Would be nice to see the GFS get on board. Should be interesting to watch later runs. It would be nice to see something develop for areas S of Point Conception, but that certainly has not been the pattern of late.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            In that case, hopefully the 0Z Euro continues the trend and that the 0Z GFS trends toward the Euro.

          • Would be nice to see the LACW
            stick it to GFS.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      We are due for a storm like that. Hopefully these models stick to this solution and that this pattern actually verifies.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Models are really going nuts for next week and beyond. The flip-flopping is getting me seasick. So much blocking and potential wave breaking are probably smoking the circuits in those Crays.

        • Pfirman

          Cray-Crays.

    • weathergeek100

      That is very mean and rude!

  • Sublimesl

    Earthquake…near Salinas….felt it East Bay….

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Looks like BA is enjoying teasing his followers today…
    https://twitter.com/TahoeWeather/status/930163152129425408

    • Bombillo1

      Teasing only the women.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Those are some juicy PWATS near 2″!

    • jstrahl

      Aimed right at the Bay Area.

  • Thunder98

    Whoa! WU increased my rainfall forecast on Thursday from 0.20″ up to 0.41″! Good sign?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e85667aec91993cc6c9094cf6704ebd33e9736918437067e01c2febd9dea0051.png

    • Dan the Weatherman

      We need to get some rain here pretty soon! I have only recorded 0.14″ since July 1 and a paltry 0.02″ since October 1 here in Orange. It isn’t abnormal to be dry in the early fall here in Socal, but we are approaching the time of year in which we usually receive our first significant storm of the season even in La Nina years.

      • BRP (Ventura)

        Frustrating beyond words for us here south of Point Conception. I hear you Dan, if we roll into Dec without any appreciable rain, we are going to be anxious to say the least!

        • Dan the Weatherman

          If we go into December without any appreciable rain and no rain is in sight by early December, then it is time to start worrying about a possible dry winter. Sometimes we do have dry falls that lead to wetness after the new year. 1995-96 was a La Nina year with a -QBO in which the fall was dry in Socal, but it got wetter once we got later into January and especially February. That season did finish somewhat below average, but was much wetter than the nightmare winters of 2001-02, 2006-07, etc.

          • mogden

            We should consider chopping off the lower 1/3 of the state and returning it to Mexico; that way the comment section will have a better mood.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            No thanks. I don’t want to live in Mexico!

  • Dan the Weatherman

    It is really smoggy here in Orange today. I could smell the smog when I walked outside just a few minutes ago, and the Santa Ana Mountains are barely visible. Of course it isn’t not as bad as Beijing or New Delhi, but it is more like the southern San Joaquin Valley / Bakersfield area.

    The air quality actually has been pretty decent here in recently and this is the first time I have smelled the pollution in quite some time.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Your area sure needs some storms to clear the air up.

      • Bombillo1

        Everywhere requires some rain for cleansing of the air. Dan is pointing out another artifact of drought conditions that we do not often factor in. Rain is not just about urban water availability and farmers.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Hoping this is a trend that verifies, but probably more a case of the ECMWF ensembles having had something bad for lunch…

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/930173543257698305

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Definitely a BIG change in the 10-day compared to the earlier run:

      Oxnard AFD:

      One should never put much if any faith in the day 10 forecast but in the for what its worth department the EC for the day before Thanksgiving has a 594 DM high over head with offshore flow. Such a combination would bring kiln like temps to much of the area.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Which only reinforces Oxnard’s “One should never put much if any faith in the day 10 forecast” statement, which also applies to the 12z run. It would be nice to see tonight’s 0z run keep the trough as opposed to the Thanksgiving ridge.

    • NH must still be doing the parade wave thingy.

    • molbiol

      NWS Los Angeles:

      “The GFS and National Blend both have another rain system entering
      the area at SLO Co on Sunday afternoon and working across the CWA
      during Monday for some more widespread but light precipitation.
      The EC has gone much deeper on this system, bringing a closed low
      height area right over us with heights plunging to 555 DM and up
      to an inch of rain. This is way more aggressive than it had been,
      but at least it is matching up with the idea of rain on Monday.
      Tended the forecast to the GFS/NBM solution since this was such a
      swing for the EC.’

      So its either a record setting heatwave or a badly needed winter storm. If I were forced to make a bet, I would choose the former….

      • molbiol

        Let me also add that if the former soln. featuring a 594DM ridge over Socal were to materialize during the Thanksgiving holiday, such an event would be almost unprecedented

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I certainly hope we don’t have a 594DM ridge parked over us for Thanksgiving, especially if we have a warm Santa Ana with it. That could send temperatures into the low and possibly mid 90’s if that scenario panned out. It wouldn’t reach 100 like it did back in October because of the shorter days and lower sun angle.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Heat wave & Santa Anas, or a storm with 1″ rain.
        That is quite a flip flop.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          That is about as a big of a flip flop as it ever gets!

    • jstrahl

      Looks more like something good for lunch.:-)

  • Thunder98

    I remember we were supposed to have a cold dry weather right but the models suddenly changed to a much wetter and milder pattern after New Years earlier this year.

    • Shane Ritter

      Correct. I took my wife on the Sierra zephyr for her Xmas present on New years day. The models had been showing 30″ of snow over 3 days, around the 27th, then dry and cold, after the 5th. I remember because I was planning on driving back, so I was paying extra attention (we live in Reno). Then the models suddenly switched, and we proceeded to see 200-300″ Of snow by the 20th that month.

    • Eddie Garcia

      yes I remember that like it was yesterday. I didnt mind tho because for one good scenario we got a good outcome

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

    67 degrees and 71% humidity. I almost feel like I’m back in Jakarta.

    • inclinejj

      63% humity and 63.5 degrees in Pacifica. Drizzle just started. Barometer 29.96.

      • Bombillo1

        Been a very light sprinkle with rare moderate rain interlude, all day, but the Baro is 29.97 steady. Would it even be possible to have more rigorous rain with the barometer in such a limp condition?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111318/gfs_asnow_wus_16.png 18z GFS brings in cold air fairly quickly, shows 68 inches of snow falling in under 4 days on Donner Summit.

    • matthew

      Yes. 18Z is one of the better runs I have seen in a few days. Encouraging that the first wave is finished within 96 hours with another good (but warmer) wave starting at about 162 hours out.

    • Not only did snow numbers go up, it’s 48 hours away and 36 hours long. I should have bet money when I doubled down ;/
      And with the closeness, NAM is now active – shows 48+ inches, off the chart snowfall on the crest peaks, in a mere 60 hours – not even halfway through the action. Tomorrow the we have the full NAM view – time to begin a clock staring contest.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/295018ee10bf33e9432c1eacabd7c7458a225ef1426436a1f288c332a877ddd0.gif

    • AlTahoe

      Hmm I hope that gets close as my guess was for 71″ at Squaw for Nov. I want my verbal praise reward!

    • Cap’n

      Someone better alert NOAA!! They’ve got Donner Peak, over a thousand feet higher than Donner Summit slated for about a foot… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21cf010eed33a546cbfe9dc7a5a111f0d4559c65d4b22fc60ed05cb587a260a2.png

      • matthew

        The summit is what, 7100′. I think this is mainly an 8K+ event with some leftovers for us low-landers at 6100′.

        • Cap’n

          Exactly. Bring it on, my gauge is yearning for more liquid! We’ve got a lot of rain coming. Just started over here on the west side.

      • Pfirman

        Just took a look at PNW radar and got depressed about our current little tepidfest.

      • AlTahoe

        NWS Reno is showing 2-3″ of snow for South Lake Tahoe. I just hope upper Heavenly gets the 24″ that is forecast. Opening day is Friday and that would mean the difference between 2 man made snow runs or most of the upper mountain.

        • Cap’n

          Did you get your pass yet? I always talk shit about them bluffing when they warn that the prices go up on such n such date. It’s no bluff, I waited too long and the Sugie slightly restricted has gone up by a $100. Finally got a back country set up again so maybe I’ll skip on a pass this year (doubt it), although I do have the Boreal night pass so I can shred with the hip hoppers.

          • AlTahoe

            Yep got the Vail pass early. Work got me a Diamond Peak midweek pass so that I can ski on my lunch break’s. I am hoping to get a lot of days in this season 🙂

          • Cap’n

            I hit Diamond Peak for my first time two winters ago as everything here was on wind hold that day. There is some surprisingly fun stuff there. Ironically, it is known for it’s epic views of the lake and the day I was there it was windy with sideways snow, no views.

          • AlTahoe

            Yep there is a side country canyon at Diamond Peak that goes top to bottom that not to many people ski on a powder day. Its a good little resort and with a top to bottom high speed chair you can get 5-7k of vert during lunch. If any resort down here had night skiing I would totally get a night pass.

          • Cap’n

            I got a Boreal night pass for the first time this season, crap it was only $150. Get some laps after work and maybe hit some baby jumps.

  • alanstorm

    6 days straight of wet, grey, SW onshore flow continues here in Mendocino County.
    .7″ in the guage when I got home this morning.
    Steady showers all day today

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      any mushrooms or fungus sprouting on you yet? Too early still?

      • alanstorm

        Barely a trickle of runoff in the creeks here yet.

        It’s funny how fast you start missing sun & blue skies even though you know you need rain.
        4 more months to go!

        • Pfirman

          I’m thinking Shitake this year for fungus selection.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Best run of the GFS yet, 3-4 inches for me in a week with totals of 6-7 inches likely or more for honzik. Im glad I live on a hill, but nonetheless hope for better dynamics for the 2nd storm and 3rd storms to come http://wx.graphics/models/gfs/2017111318/california/gfs_acc_precip_california_198.png

  • Yolo Hoe

    I’m still enjoying the ride on alanstorm’s Magic Bus, which is now named ‘18Z’ — still lots of open seats — one guy is across the aisle who goes by name of Crash — he’s responsible for the great visuals for passenger entertainment — November/December vibes still feeling good

    • Entertaining Visuals LIVE at 6PM: pick – rock, paper, or scissors?

    • alanstorm
      • CHeden

        Ed “BigDaddy” Roth?

    • Pfirman

      Watch him. He stole Tyler’s drugs.

      • Tyler Price (Seaside)

        Hey!! I was wondering why i was missing some of my magical mushrooms! I dont do drugs though only marijuana and mushrooms.. and xanax ocasionally when the models start giving me anxiety! ?????

        • Yolo Hoe

          Your welcome on the bus — still a few seats open if you and your wizard colleague can conjure up some GOA fury in December

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Interesting pic of SSTs. La Nina looking pretty good. The SSTs have really warmed up off the coast of Mexico
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

    • Pfirman

      Interesting to see the mirror effect off western Oz about the same latitudes south.

    • Bombillo1

      At least we are not looking at a full blown BLOB in the GOA. That thing was pure kryptonite.

      • Blob begat RRReckoning…hold my beer I’m gonna puke. 14/15 PTSD is flaring up.

  • Nookx-Weather
  • Fairweathercactus

    Not sure what was more of a tease. The Euro today or that girl in Brentwood I was talking to on Saturday.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      You’ll have a better shot with that Brentwood girl. They love cactus dudes.

      • Fairweathercactus

        They sure do. They are on always on some sort of cactus substance.

  • Thunder98
    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Things look fruity. I knew this would happen after the Niners’ first win.

      • VK (Sacramento)

        I’m a NY G-men fan and this is the low point of the season. Much adoo must go

  • Cap’n

    42F with a cold rain falling. My wife has Zumba after work so I’ve got the place to myself until 8 or so. Plenty of time to put on one of her robes and crank the Doppler.

    • CHeden

      LoL!
      Don’t get any peanut butter on the sleeve. 🙂

      • Cap’n

        I just got a text alerting me that the class actually Starts at 8 and it’s in Reno, so I have more time than I thought. It might get weird soon.

        • tomocean

          Pics or it didn’t happen…

  • tomocean

    Wait….what? It’s raining. I thought winter was over already?

    • Cap’n

      Dude I always love your Auburn reports. Whatever you get comes directly at me! Plus I got married at the courthouse in Auburn. I love it down there, just so damn hot in the summers! What was your final tally for last season?

      • tomocean

        Ha! I appreciate those kind words. Those hyped-up, juicy storms get their motor rev’ing as they head up the slope of the Sierra to dump all over you! The summers are freaking hot here, but I evacuate to cooler regions most of July and then there’s the river, the mountains, the swimming pool, and the coast to escape to. Just under 60 inches of rain last year between 10/1/16 and 7/1/17 – double our average.

  • jstrahl

    Raining in central Berkeley!

    • jstrahl

      Well, lasted maybe a minute or two.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    It’s a rain snow mix currrently at 7k’, temps holding around 34 so it’s not sticking. I drove up 80 this afternoon, Caltrans had plows staged from about 5500’ up and over the summit. Looks like they’re ready.

    • Cap’n

      I saw them parked at the exit above my house earlier. Are you in town for the week? You might get a good snow up there if things line up right.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Around for the week….for work so not super excited to deal with chains and messy roads but oh well!

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • redlands

      This maybe very true statement

  • RunningSprings6250
  • CHeden

    ATTM, a convergence line with locally heavy rainfall is draped NNW of Redding from Whiskeytown to past Shasta Lake City on I-5. A couple of lightning strikes NW of Burney as well. Can’t see much from my place as the lower StCu is obscuring visibility.
    While the location of the CL is off by about 15 miles per this morning’s HRRR, it’s still a win for the short-term forecasts, which have correctly picked up on the last three CL’s.
    Hopefully this streak of precision and accuracy will translate to the Wed/Thurs system. We shall see.

    • Bombillo1

      Lightning striking fairly consistently, about every 5 min here. Temp is 50 which is remarkably warm considering from where this storm comes. Standing on the deck and a bat flew by, that warm still. .81 inches today, remarkably close to the WU predicted amount last night. 2450′ elevation.

  • Cap’n

    Looks like the NAM was right this thing came in wet. I’m at .3″ and it’s raining good. Also, my rain forecast now showing potentially 2-4″ Wednesday, we got a soaker coming.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/593a91f64dbc48d363fc96599d1170875b324105c73f2fcd25c3f466c4b69ca0.png

  • Howard Goodman

    Got 2 inches here at Ragdump since this morning

    • Unbiased Observer

      Run of the mill storm for you, but that’s over a 1/4 of what I get per year!

    • Bombillo1

      Sputtered along here with .87 all day up until 1 hr ago then added an inch more in one hour, 1.88 now. It must be going your way at this moment, like a frontal passage. Vicious with lightning. Double the predicted amount!!

      • Cap’n

        Yeeeeehaw!!!

        • Bombillo1

          I wish I could have sent it to S.Cal. It was orgasmic, looks to be over here but Tahoe is on deck.

  • alanstorm

    Complete chaos & confusion in the town of Redwood Valley the night it burned.
    Evacuation orders being issued AFTER it was overrun, despite frantic 9-11 calls earlier, town fire siren wasn’t sounded.
    *On an odd note, the gig Saturday night at the Merced Cultural Center:
    I was telling my story about my fire experience to bandmates when the drummer from the opening band revealed HE was in Redwood Valley & chose to stay & fight the flames to save his place!
    Forget my lame story.
    BIGTIME coincidence since Merced is 250miles away!
    Whoah….
    http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-redwood-fire-evacautions-20171104-story.html

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Still amazes me that more lives were not lost at the Redwood Fire…when you realize many of the Fire resources that’d be sent that way were committed to the Tubbs and Atlas fires.

      • alanstorm

        Quite a few barely made it out with their lives.
        Amazed more didn’t perish in Coffee Park with the traffic jams of evacuees

  • FWIW, this is a much better November than last year. So we shall see.

    • RunningSprings6250

      .00” = .00” so we’re the same as last year here. LOL

      First November precip was .90” on the 21st.

      • It’s kind of weird if things had played out just a little bit differently you could have seen the same amount, +-5 days again this year. Still could if things get wacky 🙂
        I’m getting a lot of deja vu with this system vis a vis last year, I do believe the last year November blockbuster was colder though, fingers crossed on this one.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Not a drop of rain here, but hey I don’t care because Tahoe is getting rain and snow and is place I will a be a lot this year shredding and hopefully riding out winter storms with all those in Tahoe.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    I’d suggest So Cal residents check out Howard’s update…quite juicy….
    http://mammothweather.com/

  • CHeden

    As of Warrior tip off time, still seeing frequent lightning up bombillo’s way from today’s CL. Down here in Cottonwood, we have clear skies, but brisk SSE winds…and it’s these winds that are fueling the CL up in the hills.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    0z GFS is the most robust one yet. Of course, it could still change back but the past few GFS runs is trending WETTER, even for the southern part of the State. Light rain in LA?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0752e2cbea4281299ef543d11ba43d99db3020985472ca7f30b6b34081aa64b0.gif

    • Eddie Garcia

      FINALLY! 🙂

    • Cap’n

      And the NAM goes BAM!

      • Crouching Dallas

        WHAM
        BAM
        THANK-YOU
        NAM

        • Cap’n

          Dude you’re coming out of retirement! Gotta build that base for your Mammoth trips.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Haha, I know, I do this every year. Like a native chaparral scrub, got my summer blog dormancy, and then I break out the caps-lock comments with the first good cold front.

            How’ve you been? Work alright? I finally got to see Truckee & HWY 89 Northern Sierra cowtowns this summer, by the way! You live in such a nice place. Woulda posted notice on the blog, but I had to motor through Tahoe on the way down to the valley. It was really nice to see all the little towns that I’ve only read about on this blog. Quincy, Dunsmuir, MacLeod – places that once only existed in my web browsing history.

          • Cap’n

            Right on Dallas! Glad you made it up.

        • AntiochWx

          Good morning VietNAM

      • Nate
        • jstrahl

          Storms entering the Bay Area just about the time i’m going out. Well, i’ll take it, just have to make sure to hang on to my poncho. 🙂

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          Looks great. I just have to keep reminding myself very little if that rain will make it over the santa Cruz mountains. Unless dynamics are now in play??

      • Get ready to bust a white wintery nut – the NAM misses out 24 hours of magic still – GFS past NAM window is doing speedballs with Houdini outside Saigon for 1135589 Vietnamese dong a puff.
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83cd4001b8c908137d29b19715b8771b7ef6325d385aa84bf666bafceaed9878.gif

        • Cap’n

          If I’m reading everything right, looks like our best chance for snow below 7K comes early Thursday and/or late Thursday morning when snow levels crash. Is the Euro still hinting at plenty of moisture still around to distribute good totals lower? I’m really thinking this is going to be a washout below about 7,500 until cold air works in, but WeatherDotWrong shows Soda Springs getting some hefty totals. Who cares, this is fun! I’ll be expecting all rain and any snow that might fall down here on Thursday will be a bonus. I agree with a comment you posted earlier; it is “feeling” a bit like last winter, but whether the setup is anywhere near the same is waaay beyond my pea brain.

          • I don’t have time to do a euro run analysis however first glance says DRYING OUT…from insanity. Like we’re talking instead of 72+ inches, 50-60. Which is really just more in line with reality than anything else. But it’s not giving us the finger, oh no, just honing in on final distributions.
            Obvious trend though – LOWER altitude snow levels suggested in euro with for several runs though, including latest. So I think snow levels shouldn’t be a concern at current trajectory.

    • jstrahl

      Yellows and reds over the Bay Area? Hmm.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Kent Porter of the Santa Rosa Press Democrat posted his compilation video. Shows the intensity of the Tubbs Fire. Also chilling hearing the radio traffic in the background. Calls for ppl needing help, more crews/engines, and task forces arriving on scene.
    https://twitter.com/kentphotos/status/930177744675127296

    • Pfirman

      Just awful. It strikes me ‘compilation’ is short for complete annihilation.

    • alanstorm

      Totally f****d.
      Only thing comparable is a mile wide F5 devastation.
      For CA, the worst disaster of our time.
      Earthquakes leaves something behind to recover, this simply erases from existence.

      • Pfirman

        Great point.

  • Boiio

    The 0z run of the GFS looks like some of the model runs from last winter! Also, if you look at the CFS weeklies, the last few runs are showing positive precip anomalies over the northern half of the state for weeks 1,2,3,& 4–I don’t think I’ve ever seen that.

    • jstrahl

      Almost a sure sign of drought. 🙂

  • AlTahoe

    Looks like the 0z GFS has trended warmer with the Thursday storm as most of the moisture is gone by the time snow levels drop to lake level. The storm after that has way more moisture and snow levels of 9-10k. Hopefully the colder Euro is correct or all the high elevation snow we get Thursday will be gone by Tuesday.

    • Cap’n

      I just posed that question below. Anyone know what the Euro is showing for Thursday? It sounded good earlier for at least some moisture availability when the cold air arrives. Either way, we got water coming.

      • AlTahoe

        The lake might even hit the maximum height if the second AR being depicted comes through and melts the higher elevation snow. Having the lake at maximum height going into December would be unprecedented.

  • AntiochWx

    Rained two inches in the morning, rained two inches at night, rained two inches in the afternoon, and it makes me feel alright.

    • CHeden

      Is KFOG still playing Smoke 2 J’s at 5 p.m. on Friday? (i.e. Here comes the weekend?). Just curious.

      • AntiochWx

        Honestly I’m not sure, they might. I just happened to be listening to the song last night, and I was looking over the 00z runs and the lyrics just came to me lol.

  • Nice downpour right now.

    • Henry

      Raining quite hard now in the mountains near Los Gatos. The last few weather systems have over performed somewhat here. Contrary to many of the comments I see here it does not feel like a dry November.

      • Patrick from Stockton

        agreed

      • That is happening only on the northern half of the state. Southern half is bone dry.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Can’t wait to see the full thing in the morning :). Thats full out heavy https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/57aa7fbe1943b1c04ed619722a5589b90b184f76db28c2a8e28a04ef95f87fe9.gif rain over all the Bay Area

  • FRESHEST EUROBUNCAKES OUTTADEOVEN:
    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111400/california/ecmwf_acc_snow_california_114.png
    http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/2017111400/california/ecmwf_t_precip_california_90.png
    Trended even snowier than before for mammoth PLUS quantities compared to prior runs holding if not WETTER.

    • Unbiased Observer

      When did the Euro become free?

    • Cap’n

      Nice. By the way, have you ever thought of doing snow reporting/marketing for a resort? You got the pazaz.

  • Cap’n

    Light rain with 1.1″ in the gauge for the day, not too shabby. Bullseye Tahoe? And I do notice things seem to hopefully be moving south?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3c122132bffcc5e3372d0cf8c3b6d42e371b5d3dc058c2df6b9105885fa0090.png

  • Thunderstorm

    .31 for November better then nothing. Quick heavy shower around 9PM.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    The models are so confused right now, I vote NAM.

  • JT (San Jose, CA)

    Steady rain in San Jose/Milpitas area.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      That band came through Sac around 4 to 7:00 this evening. Glad it held together for the Bay Area.

      • jstrahl

        It did?.01 inches sounds like a very narrow band, more like a a high E string.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          LOL – Just a warm up for the main act coming to town on Thursday.

          • jstrahl

            Right. Monday was supposed to be a big event too. 🙂