Occasional NorCal rain, but dry autumn continues across Southern California

Filed in Uncategorized by on November 6, 2017 2,396 Comments

Damp in NorCal; bone dry in the south

Most of California was extremely warm in October, especially the southern portion of the state. (WRCC)

October was an exceptionally hot month in Southern California, with numerous high temperature records falling across a broad region. Many SoCal sites set new records for their hottest temperatures for so late in the calendar year–well into the triple digits in most places, even near the coast. Most of Northern California was still quite warm, though less anomalously so. Temperatures have finally cooled in recent days back toward seasonably cool levels.

Meanwhile, the rainy season has thus far gotten off to a pretty slow start across most of the state. While most of NorCal has now seen wetting rainfall (and, in some spots, “fire season-ending” accumulations), the southern part of the state has thus far been quite dry so far this autumn. Dry autumns are not necessarily that unusual in Southern California–and, as I’ve previously discussed, do not necessarily foretell a dry winter to come. Last week, it had appeared that a series of relatively moist storm systems might finally bring widespread rainfall to much of the state. Instead, these systems brought mostly light precipitation to Northern California and only drizzle across portions of SoCal.

It has been a very dry autumn so far across most of California, but rather wet in the Pacific Northwest. (WRCC)

 

 

Blocking ridge in Gulf of Alaska: Snow in Seattle, but sunny in SoCal

Recent ridging has shifted somewhat westward from its October position, bringing colder temperatures to the West Coast. (NCEP via ESRL)

A very strong blocking ridge of high pressure has developed over the northern Gulf of Alaska in recent days, leading to a high-amplitude flow pattern over the North Pacific and inducing all kinds of unusual weather to the east. Southern California recent dryness is partially attributable to the atmospheric wave pattern induced by this “boulder in the stream” to our northwest, though weaker subtropical ridging had been the bigger player during much of October. High pressure in this region also tends to result in cold air outbreaks over the western Canadian interior, as cold Arctic air spills southward (and even southwestward) on the east side of the ridge. This strong ridge is no exception: over the weekend, a fairly remarkably early season Arctic outbreak brought rare early November snowfall to sea level in Vancouver and Seattle. Seattle usually only sees snow once or twice a year (and some years, none at all!), making this light dusting one of the earliest on record.

The weekly CFS suggests a high probability that intense high-latitude ridging will persist for at least several weeks. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This unusual cold over the Pacific Northwest, though, is more than counterbalanced by extremely warm temperature anomalies over the Arctic Ocean just north of Alaska resulting from this ridge. Amazingly, sea ice has yet to form in the Chukchi and Bering Sea (and, remarkably, mostly ice-free seas are still visible in the live webcam view from Utqia?vik (Barrow)). There have been a spate of recent winters exhibiting similar high-latitude blocking patterns, with a resulting “warm Arctic” and “cold continent” pattern developing during successive weeks. There is quite a bit of ongoing research exploring these events and their potential connection to sea ice loss (along with weather extreme-related impacts further to the south).

This kind of pattern is very tricky to forecast for two key reasons. First, blocking ridges have a tendency to be quite persistent–and weather models sometimes have a hard time capturing the self-reinforcing feedback loops that can develop under favorable conditions. Second, the “downstream” effects of large, persistent ridges can be highly dependent on geographic nuance–small shifts the exact position of the ridge relative to the jet stream or nearby mountain ranges, for example, can mean the difference between relentless storminess/Arctic outbreaks and multi-week sunny spells in any particular location. At our relatively low latitude in California, there is also a third option: strong Gulf of Alaska ridges can also cause the subtropical and subpolar jet streams to merge in a fashion that brings large storms to the Pacific Southwest.

 

Modest NorCal rains; little across the south

Light to moderate rainfall accmulation can be expected across northern California over the next 10 days, with little if any over SoCal. (tropicaltidbits.com)

At the moment, it appears that the subtropical jet is just not robust enough to bring any active weather to California. Most models suggest that the Gulf of Alaska ridge is likely to persist for at least the next 10 days, and perhaps quite a bit longer than that. In fact, the weekly CFS forecasts (which were recently shown to have considerable skill on 3-4 week timescales) suggest that it could linger into December.  That doesn’t mean that conditions will be completely dry in California; in fact, model ensemble forecasts still bring widespread light to moderate precipitation to the northern third of California over the next couple of weeks. But Southern California is likely to remain pretty dry for the foreseeable future, and there are no big storms on the horizon in Northern California, either.

La Niña conditions still appear to be developing across the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, which (as previously discussed) tends to tilt the odds toward a dry winter in Southern California. Portions of the western tropical Pacific are also anomalously warm at the moment which recent work (including some of my own, which I’ll discuss in greater detail in a future post) suggests is favorable for the occurrence of winter ridging near California. At the moment, then, there is some evidence hinting that a pattern similar to the present one may recur with some regularity this winter. As noted above: Gulf of Alaska blocking can be a double-edged sword–typically resulting in relatively dry and stable conditions over California, though occasionally allowing for cold air outbreaks and active jet stream mergers over the East Pacific. But for the next couple of weeks, at least, North Pacific ridging is likely to prevail.

Cool temperatures in the Eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean contrast with above-average warmth nearly everywhere else. (NOAA via tropicaltidbits.com)

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  • Shane Ritter

    00z and 06z really take next weeks storms up a notch for the central and northern Sierra. Next Thursdays storms really look intense. And decent support from the Euro to!

  • Yolo Hoe

    53F and barometer steady at 30.01 in far southwest Davis — looking forward to one last quiescent weekend in Tahoe before the Winter madness begins.

  • CHeden

    While not THAT unusual, note that well west of SoCal the juicy anti-cyclonic flow in the upper levels is not interacting at all with cyclonic flow nearer the surface….a theme we’ve seen repeatedly so far this Fall. What this is revealing is the atmosphere is generally stratified, with a dry layer in between the flows acting as a barrier against any appreciable mixing of the two air masses. I think this is a key element in the difficulties the models have been having in gauging the extent (or lack of) of precipitation, as most of the action is being confined to the lower layers where orographics play a prominent role in dictating the precip pattern.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ef179fddd75282c12b6a66ab471ea4487307b1db19c6e87501cbda033d1840f.jpg

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Does this imply though that eventually they phase better and we get a massive AR?

      • CHeden

        Not necessarily.
        IMHO, this is not a transient condition, rather a reflection of the overall makeup of the troposphere.
        We can hope, though.

        • Thor

          What would be a type of scenario or catalyst for blowing out the middle layer and allowing for full mixing?

  • CHeden

    Up here in the north Valley, conditions are again ripe for another Convergence Line to set up late this morning/aft. ATTM, indications are the CL will setup further SE than yesterday, thus putting Cottonwood and Anderson (maybe as far south as Red Bluff?) under the threat of some locally heavy rainfall.

    • CHeden

      Here’s the expected sounding for around 12-2p.m. in Cottonwood. As compared to yesterday, when a decent CL formed near Redding, today’s action will have slightly higher CAPE and a touch higher PW to work with.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/547b302e5ed6c642c76d31b56a29800a4c36312e219d5614cf10d3e1f4f124f8.png

      • David

        Light rain here in Paradise. .05″ inches this morning so far.

        • Howard Goodman

          Been sprinkling on and off up here above you now it raining ! heading down to Winco soon

          • David

            How long does it take you to get there from your place?

          • Howard Goodman

            About an hour I stop at my friends house in Concow and trade vehicles I have a couple of Suzuki Samurai’s I use mostly to drive in and out and leave my car parked at my friends house

          • Cap’n

            Can we all pitch in and film a documentary about you?

          • If he truly is in the wettest spot in America, he is docu-worthy. Wonder how much gas a drag to the rag would take….kickstarter????

          • Cap’n

            In my opinion, his is the place for a proper WW hoedown.

          • If his numbers are accurate, he is a newsworthy subject, and he has pictures of past events and presumably records, so, this wouldn’t be hard…

          • Cap’n

            The rain, the man; equally intriguing.

          • Pfirman

            And the place. The road would be an obstacle though.

          • Pfirman

            Amen. Umbrella fest.

          • tomocean

            Wettest in California. Hawaii is king.

            The wettest place in the United States is Mt. Waialeale on Kauai in Hawaii, which gets approximately 460 inches (11,684 millimeters) of rain each year,

            In the continental US:
            Aberdeen Reservoir, Washington, 130.6 inches (3317 millimeters)
            Laurel Mountain, Oregon, 122.3 in. (3106 mm)
            Forks, Washington, 119.7 in. (3041 mm)
            North Fork Nehalem Park, Oregon, 118.9 in. (3020 mm)
            Mt Rainier, Paradise Station, Washington, 118.3 in. (3005 mm)

            Port Orford, Oregon, 117.9 in. (2995 mm)
            Humptulips, Washington, 115.6 in. (2937 mm)
            Swift Reservoir, Washington, 112.7 in. (2864 mm)
            Naselle, Washington, 112.0 in. (2845 mm)
            Clearwater State Park, Washington, 108.9 in. (2766 mm)
            Baring, Washington, 106.7 in. (2710 mm)
            Grays River Hatchery, Washington, 105.6 in. (2683 mm)

          • Hawaii isn’t America. It’s American, now, but if something is in America, people mean CONUS. Alaska counts barely because it is attached and a part of N. American continent. Hawaii is way out there.

          • tomocean

            What about Central and South America? Aren’t they America too?

          • David

            So you come down Concow Road and then on to 70?

  • Cap’n

    Another mild morning at 36F. It’s nice to just burn pine the past two days. Got .2″ last night, 2.3″ since Wednesday night, 4.1″ for November.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1132968942e273f36ffc32e245677cb55965147e225da84f5784057320a7da4.jpg

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    Nice little shower rolling thru Orinda drenching me on the walk to bart. I don’t mind especially when preceded by this…. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec96187dd9abed33db2a60e62bbadd097da82b8ffe72d1c0ee94b9e324abec90.jpg

    • weathergeek100

      This is probably the exact same shower I got caught in on my way to Bart (ashby) this morning!

    • jstrahl

      We got it in Berkeley right around 8AM.

  • Howard Goodman

    Raining at the Dump

    • Yolo Hoe

      Thanks for the update — as long as it continues to dump at the Dump, we’ll have water in the key reservoirs

      • Pfirman

        You can thank my wife and me for going on a fifteen mile bike ride just as it was starting to sprinkle. Got a bit wet by the end from some showers. Nothing since.

        • Yolo Hoe

          I took a ride later in afternoon — very beautiful weather for a bicycle ride

  • weathergeek100

    Some decent showers this morning in the east bay! From the looks of the radar, more is heading our way. In fact, the rain was harder than the front that came through a couple days ago. A bit of a surprise considering the low chances of rain.

    Ah mother nature. You never know!

    • jstrahl

      Eh? I got a light shower, .02 inches, i wouldn’t say it was anywhere as hard as was the front passage around 10PM Wed night.

  • Howard Goodman

    .33 since yesterday

    • Bombillo1

      Howard, have you passed your Nov 2016 number yet? We have here in Big Bend and Dunsmuir…

      • Howard Goodman

        No got along way to go for that , here’s last year from the first big round of storms . so much I ,ade the news
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18bdfd0f1bcd2bd1d8b177726fefb32a2cda347d129b833959f726ffed86cf80.jpg

        • Bombillo1

          Nov 2016 was actually modest here but I see your’s wasn’t. October 2016 was off the scale here with 19.5 but Nov was under 7.

        • Bombillo1

          What are your totals for rain season (Oct 1 to now)?

          • Howard Goodman

            13.17 as of this afternoon

          • AntiochWx

            lol that might be our year total by the end of this winter. Sigh.

          • Howard Goodman

            I was just looking and one place beat me with over an inch more Stouts Meadow in McCloud River drainage

  • weathergeek100

    Pessemistic? Nah, they’re just being conservative as they should. Oxnard AFD:

    “As is almost always the case
    this far out the mdls do not agree with each other nor with their
    previous runs. Given the fact that every Day 8 rain event has
    produced no rain so far this season have kept pops out the
    forecast and only brought in more clouds and cooler temps”

    SoCal, it’ll rain on you this year at some point. It always does. Driest season ever for LA was ~3″ back in 06′-07 so it’s never NOT rained during the rainy season. I certainly hope you guys get way more than 3″ but statistically, the chances of getting at least 3″ for the next few months is pretty good.

    I’m not sure if I’m looking at the bright side or not, if I’m trying to look at the glass half full vs half empty. Hard to say lol.

    • Freddy66

      Yesterday the 12z had a big ridge Thanksgiving week. Today’s run shows a big storm hitting the state.

      • Sfedblog

        Given our weather origins in the western Pacific I figure its Russian or maybe ChiCom collusion.

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      The desert will live on

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      In reality the “glass” is neither half empty nor half full. The glass is empty, and it is up to this wet season (which has only begun) as to how full the glass will become – and we’ll only know the answer to that much later in the season.

      We can try to use past analogs (La Niñas traditionally don’t favor SoCal) to formulate educated guesses and probabilities as to what we might expect, but the past few years have highlighted just how fallible those analogs can be (maybe we can blame a warming climate for that). Beware of anyone claiming they “know” what kind of a winter we are in for, as they have their head in their colon. 😉

  • SacWx

    CMC shows a nice AR for NorCal at the end of the run

    • jstrahl

      Yep, always NorCal. 🙂

      • Thor

        North of 80 🙂

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Meanwhile, SoCal peeps are still waiting for something.

  • Someone just posted this on opensnow:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6f8af9f911b6992449b76ec0655c88ae8bfc5f8577a92c55d8b0db6c55b8bdf.jpg
    “Table scraps”
    I will do a Snow Anal later, the wrap up is at 144 hours right now so if we wait just a little longer it will be out of lucyland. Numbers showing a foot or two, more up top at Mammoth.
    Not a big dump but a healthy snowfall start.

    • Cap’n

      Rose, Squaw, Sugie haven’t got a big snow yet but they’ve been starting it off inch by inch. Reminds me of the Cash song. No legit base yet but it’s been white and pretty up top the past couple weeks. My money is on that storm next week trending warmer with each run. I’d love to be wrong.

    • Early November is the peak of the wet season in southern BC, so numbers like that are certainly possible at the highest elevations.

    • SacWx

      Doing a ski trip in southern BC in mid December and am pretty stoked

    • Bombillo1

      Wow. They ain’t just Whistlering Dixie there.

    • saw1979

      Had to read your comment a few times before I figured out that the “snow anal” was probably a snow analysis? For your sake, I hope I’m right.

      • In my snow analysis I get anal about snow. The focus is on how many inches and where – the GFS has been curving some balls lately but sooner or later the models will no longer be contending with the seasonal change and knock some forecasts out of the park. I have a couple tricks for divining long range snow guidance based on emulating the snowfall charts beyond 240hrs. I don’t really consider 300 plus hours to be too useful but the window between 240 and 300 is well worth keeping an eye on especially later in the season when it becomes more accurate.

        • Cap’n

          18Z looks wild, surprised to see no posts about it concerning snow “potential”. Probably best not to jinx it. Or maybe I just did…

  • redlands

    Ian how cold did u get up in Running Springs Ca. Redlands got down to 44. Bet u got down to 20 to 25

    • RunningSprings6250

      Inversion layers, and I’m on the side of a hill well above the canyon the cold air sinks into.

      39F

      • redlands

        Wow — only 39 !!!! Redlands got down to 43/44 — coldest of this autumn

        • RunningSprings6250

          Our coldest was 32 back in early September….weird

  • weathergeek100

    Absolute DOWNPOUR in SF right now! First heavy rain of the season finally!

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      just hit us as well.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I’m dying for a downpour now. 🙁

  • Idaho Native

    .2″ so far in relatively dry Tiburon. Approaching being the biggest non-storm storm of the season so far.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I am not sure what is more ugly. The models for So Cal today or the San Fran and Giants game this Sunday.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      And I still think the Niners will get a win before SoCal gets a soaker.

    • inclinejj

      Could be the first 0-0 tie since the 1940’s!

      • Fairweathercactus

        That could also be the Pack and Browns in a few weeks.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Maybe the 49ers will get their first win of the season.

  • Fairweathercactus

    You might want to buy a blanket this year in So Cal. Not for the cold weather but for the cold you will be feeling after another lost season. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d3359c64e8e8d15624569535663b6aab09ce0846e33e3c5fd5226fcc716091a7.png

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I think the 2016-17 jetstream will be more proper. This 2015-16 version of El Nino has the ugly Baja Blob.

    • alanstorm

      Is he looking at porn?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Just saw a dark cell move over San Jose with a low hanging cloud, didn’t look to be rotating

  • RunningSprings6250

    Looking east towards San G. from Redlands – this cloud/haze seems oddly placed… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2dc34bc7c37c57e69dd4e00d76784b3e6b50ba653b8b189addfbaa10c567ffec.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Somebody forgot to paint the rest of the sky?

    • redlands

      Ian — What did u buy at the mall in Redlands, Ca

      • RunningSprings6250

        Tampons for my wife.

        • redlands

          Your a good husband

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    CFS agrees no more on a warm period in the late part of November, can’t wait for more flip flopping

    • Henry

      A fairly heavy shower is in progress here in the mountains near Los Gatos. So much for the mostly sunny forecast for today. This week has been wetter than expected. It is still early in the season, but I think it is premature to conclude that this will be another 2013.

  • jstrahl

    .09 inches in showers in central Berkeley since 8AM, a fairly strong brief one around 11:45, just before i was about to leave on a bike ride for errands, including getting a new poncho and new rain pants. (Lost my poncho Wed eve, still can’t figure out what happened, my current rain pants have come apart at the seat). Got no more than drops on the ride, missions accomplished.

    • Apotropaic

      exact same thing happened to me (central Berkeley also). got ready to ride, poked my head out, realized it was suddenly raining, changed plans. hopefully it clears up before bike party tonight…

      • jstrahl

        What i see on the radar strongly suggests no problems for the Critical Mass ride tonight.

      • Charlie B

        The same exact thing happened to you? Lost a poncho and can’t figure out how or where?

        • jstrahl

          WOW! I walked out my car with it, draped across the straps of my day pack. It wasn’t there when i walked into the dance/music place, at the other end of the bloc. It was windy, but not a hurricane or anything. Ran outside right away, couldn’t find it between the place and my car.

  • Bombillo1

    The center of low pressure located off Portland for the past 3 days, that has been issuing this rain to supra I 80, has now drifted south. It may die a natural death there but if it re-forms that would be a game changer for points south. My sister just reporting form Dunsmuir and me here in BB are getting out-sized rain now. 7 inches since changing my batteries out on Nov 4th and raining hard now.

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      If it does drift far enough south then it could pull all that moisture that actually looks like it’s moving towards CA

      • Bombillo1

        Yes, that sub trop stuff off S.Cal!

    • Cap’n

      Building along the crest again. Windy, cold drizzle here at home. I’m taking the dog up top for a hike we love this stuff.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/934361deff480b6210c659aeff8e18a49b01464fa2c0103f12a152ae4268aa8f.png

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I’ve been watching it also. Very moderate temps and a moist atmosphere here in Rancho Cordova. We picked up some nice rain late this morning and it was sooo nice to see it coming down in our new neighborhood. All we need is GOA low to swing into this tropical air mass which goes out past Hawaii to really bring the rains.

      Below I’m sharing some of my first rain images from RC, kinda dumb, but nothing spectacular happening here yet… Nevertheless, proof of wet!

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/455d10436af2d82f811969b4999840c539a113cb5caf999f86eef2cc5b3a8f77.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5be80494a1b4f758f4119b6cc98c0d86dd91eebf7ae8c555b1da13d50171d0d0.jpg

      • Bombillo1

        Nice digs. Good for you..

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Thanks buddy. Bought in 2010, near the bottom of the market after the crash. Rented out until this fall, when life circumstances allowed us to finally call this place home. We’re loving it!

          • Bombillo1

            Really like those tile roofs and rock work. Does your place have the 3 car garage?

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Well, kinda, it’s called a “tandem” garage. Supposed to be able to fit two cars along one wall, and a third along the shallower section of the space. Right now, we can barely fit on car in there what with all of the STUFF we’ve brought with us. I’m eyeing 12′ x 20″ deep heavy wire shelving to put up. Shoulda put that in BEFORE we move here, as I can’t even reach the walls now. Just wasn’t time… Eventually!

          • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

            I grew up in RC. What street are you on?

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            I’m out here in a newer development called Anatolia, off Sunrise. It’s wide open territory out here, hope it stays this way.

          • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

            That’s my territory. Grew up golfing at Mather and Cordova. Cycled out Sunrise to Jackson. The dark side is that I grew up on the contaminated ground water Aerojet left (TCE/rocket fuel). Your area is a super fund site now and I would definitely filter the water.
            https://www.epa.gov/enforcement/case-summary-epa-issues-order-aerojet-general-corporation-superfund-site

          • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Yikes. First I’ve heard of this. Read up on the EPA site you provided. We don’t drink tap water, and the cats get filtered water from the fridge. Will look at a whole house water filter to catch the junk before it hits the internal filters.

            Thanks for the information Meta!

      • Thunderstorm

        Looks like synthetic lawn.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          That it is. We had a lawn, but lousy garder, neglect, drought led us to look at an alternative to grass in ’15. Now, no more garder, saving on water, and it’s maintenance free. All wins, but wasn’t cheap to have installed, about five grand.

    • Yolo Hoe

      That’s a very important fact in the midst of gnashing teeth, handwringing, etc — you, alanstorm and Ragdump are keeping me happily on the bus — here in Yolo the dust is now dormant for the season and germination is underway for the return of verdant views — all is well North of 80

    • Cap’n

      That’s a respectable total and if we’re to believe the models, even if they delivered just half of what they show, you should hit double digits this month, though I’m assuming a double digit November tally isn’t too out of the ordinary for you?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    While we wait for the 1st big storm of the season enjoy this video of 105 mph winds and a temp below zero….BRRRRRRRRRRR
    https://twitter.com/MWObs/status/929069864752435200

    • That place is always windy, isn’t it?

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      For a weather lover, that post certainly brings opportunities to experience the extremes. “The mountain is notorious for its erratic weather. On the afternoon of April 12, 1934, the Mount Washington Observatory recorded a wind speed of 231 miles per hour (372 km/h) at the summit, the world record for most of the 20th century, and still a record for measured wind speeds not involved with a tropical cyclone.”

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Ive been to the top..but it was during the summer !!

      • Tuolumne

        I was out there in 60-mph winds, 50-degree temperatures, and a driving rain. Great hypothermia weather and I wasn’t dressed for it. However, it was only September and I quickly ducked into the observatory building to warm up before riding the tram back down (after it was stopped for an hour or more due to the high winds). If it hadn’t been for those backups I never would have gotten off the mountain alive. It was cool to experience really severe hypothermia weather once, just for the experience.

  • Chris – Getting back to you not with an answer but an observation. This year’s event has a few peculiarities from other Nina’s. First being the cool SSTA only to 150W. Second being the cool pool is centered more west. I looked at a lot of these today and used 2010 as an example because it kinda is the closest in spatial pattern now. Other Nina’s had surface SSTA further west and cool pool more east like 2010. This is not a forecast nor to suggest anything.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e5e5076f85e6995adbc1d5359dc27ea594298cff8319c4705799c0d81a82bbf7.png

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I can’t find the graphic, but the 15/16 El Nino was western displaced. I wonder if this cold pool is in the same location as the warmest water back then.

    • Chris

      Nice work! We should meet sometime and ”disqus” Weather ?

  • AlTahoe

    I just got back from a ride up to high meadow via cold creek trail. It was pretty dam cold up there https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/105301d997f348a0e274697f2802be92ef5821c66bc99ff23f95531492426ac9.jpg

    • That was the just off the truck pick? I need to see mud

      • AlTahoe

        Haha nope that picture is 1300′ of climbing after leaving the truck. It is hard packed sand so the water drains through it fast.

        • Bombillo1

          And the Armor-All’d tires?

    • Cap’n

      I agree, why the hell is your bike so clean!? Dude we just hiked up to Glacier Hut at 7,600 ft, above Rob’s neighborhood. The wind was insane. I was NOT expecting that. Might have been some of the windiest conditions I’ve been in, the top of Dave’s Run during a white out years back has it beat though, scariest run of my life I couldn’t see anything. But anyways, today felt like a full on winter storm was blowing in, glad I brought gloves!

      • AlTahoe

        It’s hard packed sand on the single track up. Almost no mud to speak of. Wind was barely a breeze on my ride. I think high meadow is about 7800′ where I took that picture and it was dead calm.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Hope the stacked wood is ready for the fire!

      • I couldn’t find a grain of sand near the down tube and BB. Or the TIRES.

  • alanstorm

    2.0″ yesterday
    .7″ today.
    Willits, Mendocino Co

    CNRFC predicted 2.5″ for here a week ago, it looks like it overperformed.

    Some huge showers blowing up over the Mtns west of Red Bluff currently.
    REDS on the radar. Any Lightning?

  • CHeden

    Bingo!
    As hoped, one of our classic convergence lines has set up directly overhead.
    Rain is intensifying ATTM, but no lightning. First strong cell we’ve had for this entire event.
    Doesn’t mean a hoot other than marvelling at the precision of the forecast(s) made 12 hrs. ago. The line formed exactly where it was supposed to.
    Amazing stuff.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6fe64a5fabb1a312a4d8633f89770e8dfe69b47d9be788eedb62e0cee326a7bc.jpg

    • alanstorm

      Good call, Mr. Weather!

    • PRCountyNative

      Yes, many aspects of weather forecasting are remarkably good these days.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Driving into East CoCo today would’ve thought I was headed into Kansas. Dark clouds everywhere. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f32e9ef93f4723dd5acf918b8ab4dc75fbfd9a81c8e66970fd090b0c4aa669f1.jpg

  • CHeden

    First cell in the CL has passed through. Another cell is just upstream from me by about 10 miles, but looks to be decaying.
    Here’s a few pics of the backside of the CL, plus one from early this morning of some great cirrus with precip falling underneath.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9e0e4bf16eac1814de31a6379193bcc54a9b9a90a527104efd7f8c896b7c8a85.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a738196516b4fb7c9fe4c46095cc5cd71c90f4e8670171419c4ca9cf278c982e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b3727226ae5eca5b39c2de3f5f7ea2da0171bf570c20f20831e5a5929a24d5d.jpg

  • gray whale
    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Nice! Rainbows all over the state today!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Freddy66

      Trolling is good when it looks like this.

    • FYI: at the coarse spatial resolution of the CFS, neither the Central Valley nor the East Bay exist. Gridboxes in those locations, at the resolution of CFS model topography, are big enough that this region in California looks like a “smoothed” plateau at about 2000-3000 elevation.

      As a check, none of those mid-level heights/temps look remarkably cold over any part of California.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Still wouldn’t mind seeing snow blanketing the Diablo Range, thanks for the explanation. Also am I the only person now seeing a colder west coast compared to the east on the climate models especially the CFS?

        • The pattern above would not support unusually low snow levels in California–to me, that looks like a pretty run-of-the-mill November system.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            And it’s the CFS which spits out ridiculous forecasts sometimes. The system your talking about rides down the side of a ridge extending from Alaska in the Pacific.

          • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

            I still stand my prediction of a once in a generation sea level snow event down to the central coast this winter but it will happen in late December or January. Mid November is just way too early.

    • molbiol

      500mb heights on the top graphic are WAY too high to support snow down to the valley floors. Probably a spatial resolution issue. This is the same issue that is showing up on crashingout’s post above. Keep in mind that temporal resolution decreases dramatically after several days on the operational GFS which tends to result in grossly exaggerated QPF and snow level forecasts. There is nothing too unusual about the pattern in BC this time of year as Nov. is the stormiest month in the PNW.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Shows 500 mb heights of <540 likely around the 534 range

        • molbiol

          As Daniel said below, 850mb temps range between 5-10C during that period which is not cold enough. Maybe Seattle where 850mb temps are around -5 would see some slushy/chunky rain but that is all. I also made a mistake, as 500mb can be above 540DM with surface temps below freezing. This occurs a lot across the northern midwest especially is there is an inversion present. Still hoping we get lucky sometime in December though 🙂

  • tomocean

    Post storm sunset in Auburn. Some nice heavy rain this afternoon. No filters. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/814df7d3ccd61f3e23312d479b64dd79cfb79b37f0898f52454741de0ffc3770.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Was thinking catastrophic fire.

  • CHeden

    Spoke too soon about the second upstream cell within our CL. Just had our first roll of thunder, and rainrates are picking up rapidly. Should get quite interesting in the next few minutes.

  • Cap’n

    Current screenshot but it could just have well been any screenshot from the past 48 hours. Light rain here, feeling like the Pacific Northwest.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a7b777fee3e0c70be810c3156862549446031e3ec77174b12f6486f0c714adb.png

    • gray whale

      i played golf today, which i do about .4 times per year, and it was awesome. scotland in full effect.

  • Prelim Anal – 12z to 18z shows dramatic changes. 198-234 hours brings us substantial dumpage in the 18z. 12z shows it as bringing a dusting to only the highest elevations, much more rain. The change to cold and snow is evident with the newest run as the 20 inches in wave one gets boosted to 54 inches by the 234 hour wave 2 conclusion. Euro sees wave 1 and says 2-3ft donner area, but it hasn’t really picked up on wave 2 yet, 00z will be assessed to see if Euro is onboard for major event. Forecast is decent even if that latter half doesn’t verify, the signal is strong for Norcal.
    Now, BC on the other hand, it’s off the chain. Why am I so certain we will see some good stuff? Because look at that BC Blaster – we are bound to get some of the splatter from that white matter.
    https://imgur.com/g8yEW7r

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Charlies contest is about to get interesting, There’s been 13 inches this month at 8,000 feet at Squaw

      • Long range extrapolations from the chart above are showing roughly 300+ inches of snow in BC which doesn’t sound right, as Whistler record snowfall is 461 inches or so, meaning the likelihood of 240-384hrs coming true is low as it pushes up against the boundaries of reality.

        • PRCountyNative

          True but, reality changes.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Wow do they need to up the color scale for the olympics and forks and whistler? Like a 24-35 inch color scheme.

      Bring the goods south jet stream pirates.

    • AlTahoe

      Your last sentence made me Lol. Well done!

    • Yolo Hoe

      Snowfall spellation a la Oak Ridge

  • Dogwood

    An odd thing is happening and I hope it’s not an omen…
    For the three rain events here in my gauge in downtown San Jose so far in November I have totaled .13, .13 & .13
    Luckily October’s little front dropped .17
    Otherwise I’d be scared.

    • Bombillo1

      Better than 666

    • Pfirman

      Be scared. Be very scared. October has 31 days so you were sandbagged.

  • Unbiased Observer

    Even if we don’t get a decent rain year, i’m hoping for a real arctic blast. It’s been quite a few years….seems like the models keep toying with the idea each year only to have it get hung up or north or further east as we get closer to the event.

  • Thunderstorm

    November only .16

  • CHeden
    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      I’m so jealous! Great shots.

      Growing up in the desert SE Az monsoon, prime time monsoon…..then the one day this year in like 5 years, when the Bay Area actually got epic thunderstorms this summer… I was outta town!

      Hopefully this winter / spring…

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      That’s awesome, I can never be jealous of other people getting thunderstorms after September 11th, now those were Midwest thunderstorms with flashes every second

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I remember the early October line of convection that came through the South Bay/San Jose. We were sitting outside under the front door overhang, watching the rain begin, with the lightening and thunder show happening, when suddenly –

      FLASH – BOOOOOOOOMMMMMM. Maybe a second between the flash and the crash, right over our heads! Reminded me of when I lived in the south, when all summer long that was common. A real treat to experience it in the Bay Area.

      A little trivia – Do you know why Sarah Winchester, the widow of gun magnate William Wirt Winchester moved to San Jose? Her research showed it to have the lowest incidence of thunderstorms of any area in the 48, which she was terrified of, reminded her of gun fire, and those who were killed by the Winchester rifle. She was obsessed with ghosts. Quite an eccentric… Read about her on Wikipedia.

  • 18z to 00z holding up more or less especially for donner dump GFS 24-36in ECMWF 32-34in – variations of the same tune.
    Typical small bullseye shifts. Best news however?
    Of the last 6 Euro runs, the last 3 have trended significantly snowier and the current couple of runs are running in lockstep with the GFS. ECMWF ends event at 156-162 hours, 6 days out. With several runs in agreement now, it’s time to see which one cracks under the pressure of 1 million F5 keystrokes.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eba19dd2fe47e7b41e252a1852eb0abfa92fb25d658c5fc433daf569e5643cca.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4675d5acf56d26161f337f2a5be3f8e43bd7fc8b02b3fc099f6338c336587c3.png

    • Cap’n

      I remember how this game ended last time.

      • Yeah but look at the model uniformity here. They are seeing very similar solutions, something that can’t always be said. 00z gfs 12z euro
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/069ff926062b658fc4f15449ba6177287504e9cc88405e7c21764a86eb3a46eb.gif

        • Cap’n

          We’ll probably get a little snow up top next week with a dusting down here. Question is, does that rain event showing up the following weekend wash it all away??? These games are fun and suspenseful.

          • That followup stuff 200 hours out has been flipping between rain and snow so since it hasn’t made up its mind yet, plan for rain and hopefully we will all be surprised. When the models DO show snow in that system the results are great. For that reason I’m not touching that one for another 30-40 hours.

          • Cap’n

            The good news is there’s a good looking snow event showing up at 384, so we have that to look forward to if none of this other stuff pans out.

          • With a comment like that you’re the Anti-Cactus. Would that be a pitcher plant?

          • Cap’n

            My prediction for Wednesday/Thursday storm: Donner Summit, 10″, Truckee 1-2″, SLT, we’ll we know that one. But there will be rain so it’s not all bad and it’s only November.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Wednesday storm has potential for snow levels around 6,000 feet

          • Cap’n

            I doubt it, but I’ll play the game.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            00z sounding near Tahoe shows freezing level at 132 hours out at 850 HPA which is 4,722 feet, as you know it could snow above freezing as high as 35-37 degrees. Temperature in Carson City is shown as 35 F degrees

          • Pfirman

            The real suspense is how long you can wear your wife’s pink slippers on the the dog walk. Probably not fun on the last run.

          • Cap’n

            Did you catch my Trout reply way down the thread? And my wife wears combat boots, no slippers in her getup.

          • Pfirman

            I did, thanks.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          It’s safe to stay the GFS backed off on snow totals as it showed the crest of the Sierra getting 60+ inches of snow with Donner getting 69 inches now down to 22 in the 00z through 240 hours https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9111433ac33844785480ffdaacd60418649c15ddb55fdd2e777de1c0c81518fc.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86a3739f4bd3ab65ac3d9d008ff93fee6ea55e6135959a6b8b2f2b037b315cfa.png

          • Cap’n

            Doesn’t that sound familiar from the other times we played the game?

          • I read the 18z as jumping the gun and going for broke at baccarat. I made the 00z/12z euro-gfs gif because they are in such close agreement the 18z can be pretty much ignored at this point unless we see some drastic changes from newer runs.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      F5, gimme a rain reload, Pleeeeeze gimme rain!

      • Pfirman

        He may come here for wine. You should be here too.

    • Yolo Hoe

      I’m tempted to embrace the sag on this one now that we’re in mid November and the storm door has unambiguously opened for Ragdump — last time you spun us up was just too early in the season — I’ll make an appropriate sacrifice up on the PCT this weekend

      • The last time precip did deliver to the dump of rags as predicted, however the snow signal pooped out for sure. This one could end up less than impressive but many signs of sag – it is the right time of year and it is the right size, par for the course if it does come true.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    NWS Bay Area AFD
    Latest forecast models and forecast point

    soundings suggest enough instability with the cold front to

    generate some thunderstorms. Best timing will be Sunday night over

    the northern coastal waters and then north of the Golden Gate

    early Monday. At this point only about a 20 percent chance, but

    enough to add to the forecast.

    Rare to get thunderstorms with the cold front, I’ll take it!

  • jstrahl

    Interesting feature, southeast of the base of the big spinning low, appears to be a belt coming off the main spin which in the latest frame (click on the graphic to get the LATEST), is coming ashore right at the Lat 40 intersection with the coast. In the loop, it appears to be widening and moving south. A weak wave? Comments appreciated.
    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/rb-l.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      The big L appears to be moving more convincingly S. Also, all the interfering high pressure appears to be getting attenuated or displaced. The battering ram of the past 4 or 5 days has done some damage. I want to see how things look in the AM…

      • jstrahl

        Not there any more. (That feature, i mean).

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Bombillo1

      A bit curious rain distribution. What are those places showing 2.9 and 3.1 accumulations, east and se of the Bay Area. Projected to be wetter than upper Sac Canyon/ mt Shasta drainage???

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Stockton and Tracy

        • Bombillo1

          Those places do not come to mind as being regional outperformers. Typically shadowed even. The Rad Dump part I can buy.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            If the 00z verifies Rag Dump will 40 inches of rain in the next 2 weeks

          • Bombillo1

            Curious that Howard has just a bit over 13 to date since Oct 1. This next 2 weeks projecting to put RD on a 2016 beating glide path.. That would be scandalous!

          • Howard Goodman

            Looks like I’ll have to get the garbage can out for a rain gauge

          • Howard Goodman

            Years ago before I moved up here full time I left a full sized garbage can out when I came back 2 week later it was almost full , I had know it rain a lot up here but that was my first indication of just how much

          • I would love to make that into a timelapse even if it took two weeks.
            To be included in “Howard the Dump Master – A Western Legend In Dumping: The WeatherWest Film Noir-Docu-Drama” Featuring Dizzy Gillespie as the GFS Ghost, Herbie Hancock on the Euro Piano, and Cannonball Adderley as the Abominable Truck Driving Tree Logging Snowman.

          • Bombillo1

            Yea, I saw that fancy but pinche ( for you anyhow) new collection system you got and thought that you would be wearing a trail in your lawn trying to keep it empty and recording. I don’t know if it is any good or not but I noticed that Costco is selling a very complete weather station with annenometer, rain collection, pretty much everything for just 75 bones. LaCrosse brand. You of all people should have something like that!!

          • inclinejj

            My weather station is from LaCrosse. Bought it from Amazon. Only negative is it doesn’t give me wind direction.

          • Patrick from Stockton

            Yeah unfortunately

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      even if this doesn’t come true, GFS showing two more light storms on the way before this. Still plenty more action to keep us entertained while this hammers out as we draw closer.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      yeah I sure hope so. 2.9 inches for Stockton would be pretty impressive for this time of year. It’s been pretty impressive so far this month. Not a lot of rain but nice and damp conditions

    • Holy Wee Cows!

    • alanstorm

      GFS integrated vapor transport keeps getting jucier with subtropical moisture & further south each run for 10 days out.
      So much for a dry SoCal?
      https ://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f7820ce1b28b99240ed1c77c2e3c92d685e410c2178824096f91046ed9f54cfc.png

      • sezwhom

        I agree. EC keeps trying to build a Ridge in and so far, that hasn’t happened. GFS maintains active pattern with increased moisture. See no reason not to believe the GFS this month.

      • jstrahl

        But how’s the 12Z?

        • …less snow but actually trends WETTER, a little less for the bay but substantial #s for Sierra. Southern Sierra loses a small bit but Central and Northern go gangbusters on 12z.

          • alanstorm

            Looks like a warm AR with subtropical moisture

        • alanstorm

          No time to check run to run right now. Too busy.
          Once a day is fine

          • right now though is the sink or swim moment. The first signs of chaos are beginning. the euro is loading…

    • Freddy66

      I know it probably will evaporate by the 12z but the 6z is pretty ridiculous for the whole state. Please let this happen.

  • saw1979

    Fog developed this morning near Merced. Now it feels like the season has finally changed https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f5e19be2f31429002d7d26134d7da501bfb58175da286a3e4f6da4882ff24a7.jpg

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Heavy fog in Lafayette, Walnut Creek, and concord as well….driving there for a car tune up. Feels great and damp like it’s supposed too!

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Fog just started to burn off in Clayton.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      Same here in Stockton. First fog of the season so far..

  • sezwhom

    GFS doesn’t see any “Ridging to Prevail” through the end of November. It still shows lots of NorCal rain and deep trofs. To its credit, the GFS has been the model of choice in the West and not the ECMWF. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/467a75ffb289c82aac0b602b7bb82fda407ccc35fd3245e2db3b57c2511e0e60.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5bad84f6f6b2956b25bd48417d0d5669ff11a04b1d655912d17b30e5aa101274.png

    • Bombillo1

      A deep off-shore trough is digging south right now. The high pressure located over BC and Arizona makes at least C Cal and N Cal the logical track for this system. November in NCal is going to be much wetter than last year. This may not be common knowledge but last year was really wet.

      • Chris

        It was quite dry in my part of the bay area.
        Morgan Hill only received 1.07″ last November. Average is 2.45″

        • Bombillo1

          You’re right, last nov was relatively dry here as well. We received a little over 19″ last Oct which will never likely be seen again, followed by a very pedestrian November of 6.5 inches. December all hell broke loose and we ended up with about 140 for the season. We just went over 7.3 for Nov this year so we here are on track for a very wet Nov if any of the predicted systems verify.

          • Chris

            Last december was a bit below average for us too.
            It wasn’t until the end of the month when things got busy.
            Then 19.87” of rain drowned us in January!!!!!

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            we got around 1.75 in Nov which is percentage wise well below average, but then December went back to normal/slightly above normal till you know what happened next!

    • Fairweathercactus

      Praise Satan.

    • Freddy66

      But wait…only a few days ago it was ridge city.

    • Microbursts

      Uh-Oh….. tread carefully… Daniel has already spread his doom and gloom “its gonna be dry and hot forever” prognostication…….. just kidding daniel we all love your updates

      • Bombillo1

        It’s become an annual tradition for Daniel. Like turkey dinner and 49ers losing.

        • Microbursts

          Why did I just get an image of Russel Wilson, Richard Sherman and Daniel all eating Thanksgiving dinner together at the niners 50 yard line ……… in the COLD, BLUSTERY RAIN 😉 LMAO

        • jstrahl

          Not so two years ago, the pre El Nino Fall.

          • Bombillo1

            Yes. The tradition is making a stinker prediction, not whether it is wet or dry!

          • Cap’n

            Pre El Niño fall or fail?

          • jstrahl

            Well, El Nino happened, it was a record one, it just didn’t affect California rain in the usual way.

          • Cap’n

            It gets kind of lost when talking about that year, but everyone from the Bay area north had a nice respectable “average” year, it just seems small in our memory banks because it wasn’t the Godzilla drought buster that was advertised.

          • jstrahl

            And it was supposed to hit SoCal in a big way, when in fact SoCal wound up below average. Bay Area was just average, Far NorCal was way above. That’s what i meant re not affecting the rainfall in the usual way (usual for El Nino).

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Ooh, polar vortex. I hope this cools down that ugly Baja blob.

  • Fairweathercactus
    • Shane Ritter

      Lake effect snow here in Reno is really interesting. When I had my first apartment in stead in 2006-07, it started lightly snowing at 8pm, there was no storm tho, so I checked radar, and a small cell extending from pyramid lake to stead. It snowed all night, we got 6″ while 5 miles down the road it was snow free. In 10-11′ after a cold low, Reno got a band that dropped like 12″ at my house in Sun valley.

      • inclinejj

        Drove from Incline Village to Reno while attending UNR 3 Days a week in 1988 to 1990. Left Reno many days when it was partly cloudy and drove through raging snow on Mt Rose.

    • Charlie B

      One of our kids (Johnny B) has a birthday on 11/9. We had a big dinner that evening. Everyone almost had to spend the night because the roads were a mess. Karla B remarked “gee dad, the roads are a mess.” Roxy B agreed, but Sam B said he had seen worse. Drew B was rooting for a delayed start while Carson B said his boss told him to be careful on the way to work. Meanwhile, Graham B took a second slice of cake and Ellen B called him a pig. Danny B was asleep on the couch while Jorjean B put whipped cream in his hair. Charlie B (Jr) was worried that his girlfriend, Jazlyn M, would have trouble getting home and asked it was ok for her to spend the night. I said no and took her home. But I digress…..

      • Bombillo1

        Sounds like the Waltons, 2018.

        • Charlie B

          My wife, Colleen B, is mad at me now and said I need a shower. We are headed to Graeagle after a haircut.

  • Shane Ritter

    The suicide hotline is about to get a lot of calls…. the 12z drops next Thursdays storms. Let’s see if it’s a trend first before we grab the razor blades.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
      • This isn’t exactly sunshine lollipop and rainbows for Tahoe though, last night the 130-200+ hour range was showing colder snowier systems, those are rain today. They are regularly flipping between rain and snow, I’m going to bet my bingo on snow, because we are due, if the trend shifts south and colder, that raggy dump could end up all over a Mammoth sized rump.
        Check out all that rain:
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86aabdf447ed65239bf2ef7414a47e12fba888e57d8dae36218a49b39dd9f2bb.gif

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          I bet rain just on how similar this is to last year, PWATS near 1.5-2″ are shown to be streaming in from the SSW

      • jstrahl

        Do you mean 20+ in terms of mountain snow?

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          nope rain in inches look at the map

          • jstrahl

            Maybe in Rug Dump. And this was the 06Z anyway.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Thats the 12z actually

          • Cap’n

            Are you bummed, did you want the 10+ inches that’s positively going to happen to fall at your place. Maybe this will be the year that we see families in rafts and kayaks drifting down the streets of Berkeley! Then we’ll know we finally got a real winter.

          • jstrahl

            Yes. rafts and kayaks. I better get a rubber tube before the water knocks at my door. 🙂

      • Good to see the northern folks getting rain.

    • alanstorm

      Stalled? Doesn’t look that way on the loop. Projected CF looks like it slides south.
      Hard to predict stalls that far out. Usually, they are predicted a day or 2 out or not predicted then are a suprise

  • Howard Goodman
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Oh boy, purring lap warmers, welcome in the winter, during the hot days of summer, not so much, for neither man nor cat.

      • Howard Goodman

        I seem to have a unless supply of mice so cats are a big plus

        • Ever thought about setting up “killing fields” for your cats? If you have a serious mice problem, set up the food in such a way that the cat has an easier time – we did and the cat’s effectiveness in bringing us big dead treats seemingly went up 200%

          • Howard Goodman

            Great Idea

      • Howard Goodman

        The other thing about Ragdump is it doesn’t get too hot , the hottest I’ve ever seen was 92 last summer 90 , always cools off at night , the other thing is I have 2 small creeks with water pumps that can run about 25 rainbirds at once I start those up in the evening

    • PRCountyNative

      Yay cat pictures! Mine are happy its cooler, I think.

      • Howard Goodman

        Yeah the kitty’s are bulking up for winter so far they like it but this will be there first encounter with snow

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Took Expo Line to Santa Monica yesterday; beautiful day but too chilly for me to go swimming; waves were 3-4 ft. Water temp: 67
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37b7d149d710f7402ac79069e5e64317dbed5e67bf653b09c84a2c07c1b2b7a8.jpg

    • 67 seems pretty warm for this time of year.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        SST are still elevated ranging from 60 near Santa Barbara to 69 in San Diego bay. Minimums are running warmer than normal but recorded 54F this morning [coolest minimum since 5/16]

        • I used to surf So Cal, (Huntington area mostly) and by November the water was usually pretty chilly (upper 50’s/low 60’s). The times they are a changin’

          • happ [Los Angeles]

            Yesterday water temp was one degree warmer than max air temp on the Pier. Sets were coming in w/ decent surf but didn’t bring swim gear.

  • alanstorm

    Eel River finally getting its first runoff of the season.
    Klamath & Smith all up & full of Color.
    Fishing anyone?
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/79839d21f80d04e65b0138f84192f3fdfaeb551c42b34f55a24654b03dae969b.png

    • matthew

      How is the Klamath fishing these days? I used to go up there regularly in the 80s/90s to fish around Somes Bar. Year after year, I watched the fish get smaller and the catch lighter until I finally gave up.

      • alanstorm

        I don’t fish so I’m not privy, but I know the salmon runs on the Eel have all but been wiped out from a century of extreme logging & silting in of the deep pools.
        I imagine the Klamath is still pretty good

    • weatherhead

      Even though the Mendocino Coast got less than you in the mountains, we did pretty well, very close to the NWS estimate. For the two days and nights that it rained (now 2 & 3 days ago,) I got 1.2 in the gauge.

      • alanstorm

        Pea soup fog & drippy wet this morning when I left

  • Fairweathercactus

    You can tell the weather channel is betting hard on that polar vortex since they need raitings since they are in the trash.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      And the dreading named winter storms. Nobody cares about Winter Storm (insert name here).

  • 12z Euro has now loaded up to hour 30. Last 40 hours of 12z GFS snow chart picking up on high snow level but high intensity AR with a subtropical tap. High elevations in S. Sierra nuked.
    Sink or swim time…I just bought a clock made out of lead, so hopefully something will happen…

  • happ [Los Angeles]
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Hello? That’s got to be from last year https://twitter.com/weathernation/status/929411900844130304

  • “Ladies and Gentlemen, this is what you have come for! It’s main event time!” Gif shows 162hrs out on 12z vs 186hrs out on 00z.

    12z Euro……DOUBLING DOWN! It’s not even up to hour 200 and man that looks good! 138 hours out from a gigantic white dump.
    https://imgur.com/Z5NY5w3
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca23d3a545696bc8895f0abd8e928f047708fd10ee7ef02829ad736bf9cd661e.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56dd184f3a1c0e20299b3360b284c5e4542e6d5a0c6f87004e506f2aceae14b6.gif

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Thumbs up for the graphics…but the Wayne’s Worls makes it better I picture Muzik and Mota riding in a car together that way twirling their poles and sleys.

      • Cap’n

        And mainlining horse tranquilizers.

    • Cap’n

      I always wanted a red vines dispenser in my car!

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      What I love is both show a strong AR with 50 mile difference in their bullseyes

      • With the GFS doing the same thing run after run after run and both euor+GFS going up in intensity as the show draws nearer, Lucy doesn’t appear to be anywhere in sight. I hope that bitch froze to death in Vancouver when she was sneaking around trying to poach beavers for counterfeit football skins.

        • jstrahl

          Now you did it. She’ll come back just to spite you, and we;ll be dry and not high. 🙂

    • Boiio

      I think I’d be careful getting hopes up for big snows out of the pattern shaping up. How many times last year did the models show a system with the same trajectory producing huge snow totals out 4-6 days only to have the cold air never materialize and snow levels stay above 8000ft.? Remember all the photos of the Truckee River going over the bike path in January and February?

      • We aren’t at a point in the season yet where the snow being hammered by rain causes chaos. There really isn’t any snow right now at all, not enough to do anything with. A wet ground, happy trees, a middle finger to bark beetles, and an increase in humidity primes the pump for future fun to plaster the mountains. If it rained 10 inches I’d shrug my shoulders on the snow potential, but I would still have a big fat smile on my face for all the vegetation, animals, and vacation taking firefighters.

    • Freddy66

      So cal getting a good soaking….can’t wait. Where’s the wisdom of John Curtis ? John… John….?

  • AlTahoe

    Wow Oroville better hope that the spill way can hold this winter if the 12z is to be believed.

    • Howard Goodman

      No problem it’s down 210 feet

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Even more impressive is the bulk of that happens in less than 138 hours. Looking ****ing rad.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      The Sac. NWS is kinda in agreement – skipping ahead past this Sunday-Monday’s weak system.

      “.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Wednesday THROUGH Saturday)

      Unsettled weather and below normal temperatures are expected for
      the extended period. Highs will reach the 50`s and 60`s for the
      Valley and 40`s and 50`s for the higher elevations.

      Improving confidence is improving with precipitation spreading
      across the area on Wednesday and snow levels will likely be
      between 5000 and 6500 feet, bringing travel impacts to the
      mountains. Precipitation is expected to linger at least into
      early Thursday, though additional rainfall and snow look
      relatively light.

      A ridge builds in for Friday into early Saturday with dry and
      slightly warmer weather. If things clear out quick enough
      Thursday night we will likely see lows fall into the 30`s across
      the Valley. The break looks brief, though, with another wet system
      moving in during the day Saturday and continuing through Sunday.
      EK “

      • Cap’n

        A double improving. Yes!

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Hey, it was the guy at the NWS who wrote that. He’s approving the improving situation based on the approval of management and see’s an improvement as far as he can tell. Heh –

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • AlTahoe

      I don’t doubt that the rainfall total will verify as we usually over perform on rainfall. Snow levels look marginal again so I will go with 1-3″ of snow.

      • Cap’n

        Rain is coming, and lots of it, if anything comes at all. Those happy snow maps are garbage.

        • Saving this comment for November 24th 2017: Crow Pie Eating Contest-A-Palooza starring Dan Rather as the host in Grand Forks ND.

        • AlTahoe

          One good AR this month and Tahoe could get close to the max height again which would be unheard of going into a winter. RENO better watch out below this year

        • Pessimism is a defense mechanism. You should see my fort. I have an armada floating in my head.

          • Cap’n

            I’m feeling super pessimistic today, figure I’ll just ride it out, it’s a good day to make new enemies.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Ugh, go away offshore winds. I’m tired of this city being the warmest in the Central Coast.

  • Cap’n

    Instead of blaming the models if everything fizzles out, blame me, I’m buying more tarps to wrap my wood today. It’s held up well so far with 4.1″ of rain so far in November, but I’ve got 7 cords still, 2 I’m selling next week, and I want to double up as there are holes in a couple.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      All the blame is pointed on the Baja Blob, Trump, and GFS ball holder Lucy Van Pelt.

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        And only one of those is correct!

      • Cap’n

        Never, ever blame a ball holder.

      • Freddy66

        It’s looking like So Cal might get shut out in November. Ugly. That baja ridge hangs around just enough to the north to annoy us.

    • I’m pathetic when looking at the Brazilian world model

      • AntiochWx

        which one? 🙂

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I’ll go get my truck washed. It’ll rain for sure within 174 hours…

  • CHeden

    A quick look at radar is showing zip over all of NorCal, save for a lonely little (but active) cell between Chico and Yuba City.
    Wish it had some company. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/59078b4f20457096765491e4282d6f238f4a12e1a73265daeadd15440b7a3869.png

    • Pfirman

      Odd because clouds were all bunched up along the northern Sierra. Could not make out the Sierra Buttes, but Tahoe looked clear and beautiful.

  • CHeden

    Here at my place, 0.51″ fell from yesterday’s CL, while nearby Anderson logged ~ 0.7″ in a little over 2 hours. Elsewhere, Redding and Red Bluff got hardly anything (Redding zip and Red Bluff .03″) which nicely illustrates the highly localized precip pattern that’s so common with our convergence lines.
    Plus, only Red Bluff airport logged any thunder with Redding being quiet.

    • Whats your take on the latest model madness? I’m all worked up in a tizzy and have lost all perspective. Currently pacing shed while twirling red vines wearing VR goggles looping doppler radar animations from 1982.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Have you tried coffee? : ^ | 0 ^ :

        • ALL OF THE COFFEES.

          • Covfefe

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            DO NOT drink that stuff! Very similar to kook aid.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            We’re steady fans of Peet’s Major Dickersons blend, whole bean from Costco. Grind it, brew it, drink it – LIVE.

            Saw a tee shirt on a woman with two crazy kids at the store – it said: CAFFEINATED MOTHER. It was very accurate… LOL

          • I literally am not joking because it’s a Peet’s 2017 Holiday Blend – bold and complex with notes of cocoa and baking spice, roasted 11/10.
            So literally all the coffees.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            I’ve gotten so spoiled, mainly because of Starbucks coffee because it’s so strong and flavorful. If I order coffee at a regular eatery, like Denny’s – it’s BLAH – weak, flavorless, need like three cups to feel the Love.

            Do I need an intervention? Rehab? Counseling?

          • inclinejj

            Major Dickerson is very good. Every try Peet’s Sumatra blend? I’ve seen it at Costco now and then, really good. Philz is really good also!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • alanstorm

    Sunny, beautiful Clear Lake & Mt Konocti today.
    Have to drive to all the way to silly Merced for a gig tonight, but lucked out with perfect weather.
    Too bad Lake Co is such a FIRE ZONE with those summer & fall winds.
    There’s a major fire pretty much every year in the Eastern half.
    Some of the same areas burn again & again
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c58748c6acc986a22fd8939ae77484a44c314bbab44ef783183acf2299fd0afd.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e66f27aef23790f361d70d8ef0990a909c711d79513988163c8e5bf5d54b35de.jpg

    • Pfirman

      The entire county has as many people as Woodland in Yolo County. I almost moved there but the 2008 crash killed the chance. Had my eye on 15 acres along Kelsey Creek.

  • Boiio

    I would love for someone to tell me I’m wrong, but the pattern setting up next week looks similar to a lot of the setups we saw last year. Year of the AR redux? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4098064bf71b96fc685ca690919f2c49ca1e5b35e3f4527ecb3dd9e27bcb05a2.png

    • I think the only people who would mind Part Deux work in the Oroville Dam Management Office.
      Ok maybe Kim Jong Un? He doesn’t strike me as the wine & ski type. He likes lube.

      • Boiio

        Little Rocket Man is definitely a ski bum fan:

        • If you ever see a Kim skiing it’s a body double. That barrel shaped buffoon strapping on skis would be the greatest godsend the department of defense could ever wish for, his incredibly dense mass combined with love for lube and greasy hair means even a bunny slope would propel him to a 85 mph death-via-BBQ-pit-in-front-of-the-slopeside-hotel-ramming.

    • Focus on the isobars and wind barbs. Ignore the PWAT.

      • Boiio

        Looks like a fetch of SW winds at 850mb stretching to the same latitude as Hilo. IVT values aren’t crazy, but I think it’s interesting that 17/18 seems to be starting off where 16/17 left off. We shall see.

      • Chris

        Agree! You need dynamics to wring out the moisture.

    • Steve92

      I agree. Eerily similar to last year, except earlier in the season.

    • AntiochWx

      It’s close, but like Daniel said, we need more atmospheric dynamics. Need a stronger LP to dive further south to get us in the strong jet streak.

  • Dogwood

    Ominous Green Lizard Moth once again guarding SoCal against any activity in the 240. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/00abaa59ad5abc142416aedcac78cb96abcb1d12cce7f02d42b6f692e15a2388.jpg

  • 18z showing snowy magic – the show is on track for a bigass dump in the Sierra 120 hours away from now! Mammoth better keep their fingers crossed, that bulls-eye is likely to squirm around.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111118/gfs_asnow_swus_21.png
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111118/gfs_apcpn_swus_20.png
    Rest of the run isn’t done but wow the 5 day is totally Zoidbergs (V) (;,,;) (V)
    Lucy died in the ditch like a bitch…

    • Cap’n

      Reno AFD:

      While some simulations (GFS and 00Z ECMWF) still show a colder
      and drier system, the 12Z ECMWF has come in wetter and warmer.

      • Warmer and wetter = better than no tap and lingering fears of a dry winter. I’d rather have a snowless winter than a fiery rainless deadtreepocalypse.

        • Cap’n

          Wouldn’t it go without saying that warmer and wetter is better than warmer and dry? I was just posting in regards to the snow maps. Those of us who live up here have seen far too many of them posted, then downsized or vanished as the event draws near. I finally broke down and bought a rain gauge two winters ago, for Truckee, in the winter…

          • We are due for a dump, wet or white, if this is finally the winter where the rain wins, at least at your elevation, then the writing was on the wall we just ignored it in favour of another keg stand.
            We all know the current trajectory is unsustainable. I don’t know how long you think we may have, but I foresee the great Northern exodus before 2025 – skiing may not live another decade in California if those snow levels keep climbing. The behaviour according to publications, is supposed accelerate. That’s one reason to relish the moment…this may be the last chance to do so.

          • Cap’n

            I agree about relishing the moment. That’s why I’m usually on here posting snow enthusiasm/photos etc., even when there is negativity to lack of lake level snow etc. In my opinion these are the last days of snow at this elevation, hence my patented and coined term, 7K is the new 6K! Growing up in the era of the warming of the planet being openly discussed and at least somewhat accepted, it always seemed like an abstract idea to me: “When I’m an old man maybe it will be a little warmer…” I hear you, we’ve been plotting our northern migration. In a perfect world I can go live in high town in the Rockies around 9 or 10K where they aren’t as concerned about snow levels, yet. But the more realistic option will probably be Washington or Oregon.

          • I’m thinking WA. OR is hot ASF and resembles California too much to appear to be anything but the flimsiest of band-aids: what will hurt us here will hurt them too.
            Crystal Mountain anyone?

    • AlTahoe

      18z shows a hot rainfest with like 9k snow levels. If that run verified we would have less snow on upper elevations than we do now going into December.

  • Current model solutions definitely showing potential for interesting setup in 6-12 day period, with the potential for a prolonged and deep subtropical moisture tap. However, despite the favorable trajectory, there don’t appear to be especially robust dynamics in play (i.e. a strong surface cyclone or strong local jet streak) to squeeze out all that moisture. This is a classic “high anticipation, high disappointment” scenario, since there is some latent potential but the likeliest outcome is a sustained moderate rain event in the mountains (light in the valleys) with very high snow levels.

    The big wildcard is the dynamics–if a stronger storm develops within this airmass, then things could get a lot more interesting pretty quickly. (Exception: things look quite dry for the next 10+ days in Southern California regardless, unfortunately). Stay tuned!

    • Bombillo1

      Could you share what the “set-up” is that is interesting to you? I see the model runs and their predictions, what strikes you as remarkable?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Well that sucks

      • Jimcareysoyouretellingmetheresachance.jpg

      • Freddy66

        Someone needs to assassinate the baja ridge.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
      • We’d need to be on the north side of that jet streak for a big event across most of CA. The position could still shift southward, as I mention above. But unless it does, that’s the classic signal for a warm-but-modest, mostly mountain-focused atmospheric river setup. Certainly not a dry pattern for NorCal, but also not a remarkably wet one, either.

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Is it possible the 12z Euro had the Bay Area on the north side of the jet?

          • Ignore the 12z. All eyes should be on the 00z now. If the 00z holds, please place an order for 17 boxes of these on my behalf,
            https://www.wine.com/product/dom-perignon-p2-in-gift-box-2000/254921
            I’ll pay COD when we have the WW Thanksgiving Mimosabender, it’s in 384 hours and can be found at the convergence line behind the anticyclonic jet. The password is “Sleying”

          • Cap’n

            WeatherDotCom (I’d say DotWrong but I don’t want to go against your Mojo!) must’ve been reading your comments and analysis today cause they’ve beefed up totals big time for Wed-Thur, now showing 8-12″ for Truckee Wed night and 3-5″ Thur. Also showing upwards of 2-3 feet for Soda Springs. The caveat would be that it showed similar totals last week for both locations and we know how that turned out (though upper Sugie did pass a foot)…

            I have a personal interest to Not see a legitimate snow event down here quite yet, unless I can unload some of this wood by Wed afternoon (a possibility if I rush). Once it’s gone, bring on the snow!

      • Thunderstorm

        The stratospheric temperature forecast still shows cold entering California around the 18th of November but lifts out rather quickly.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      When do you think Socal will finally get a decent storm? Often in La Nina years, there is rain sometime in November for the area.

      • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

        Dan I hope we get something by the end of the month. If we don’t get any meaningful precip by December it would feel quite odd

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I would expect to get some storms later this month and into December.

  • PRCountyNative
      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        Seriously!!!! The. best comment if the day!!

      • Eddie Garcia

        Man I love this move such a classic!

        • Cap’n

          Definitely a little Jack Torrance in all of us.

      • Guitar_grrrl

        I did mine today, too. So nice having evenly spaced rains to firm up the dirt/gravel driveway so we can grade it.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I prefer rain gauges that you don’t have to empty, I’m considering getting one like yours to compare totals

    • Cap’n

      I’ve got the exact same one! Somehow the damn thing survived last winter.

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      Home improvement month(s)

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    As Daniel mentioned below it would be nice to be on the northern side of the jet, but the January 11th blizzard which I think brought 3-7 feet of snow to Lake Level had a jet going right over the Bay Area. I think that would be ideal for a massive storm for the Bay and Northern Sierra.The jet going over the Bay could be what the Euro is showing, but since we don’t have 250 mb wind speed data available online from the Euro we don’t know. https://i0.wp.com/weatherwest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/gfs_uv250_swus_3.png

    • Hollow Scene (The Desert)

      January?

  • AntiochWx

    I think someone in the Pac NW is going to see some near record precip this winter. They got this TTT pattern going on for the forseeable future. Unfortunately SoCo is going to struggle very much this winter.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      With this much activity going on up north, I believe Socal will eventually see some of this action at some point in time, even if the bulk of the activity is north of the area. The mild, somewhat coolish weather Socal has been experiencing as of late doesn’t have that “death ridge” feel to it, and it doesn’t feel like rain is weeks to months away at this point.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Touché!

      • weathergeek100

        I hope you’re right, but the trend I’m seeing as the years go by is a wetter pacific NW and a drier SoCal. Who knows if this is the result of global warming but it seems like the trend is a more moisture laden (probably because it’s warmer?) but further north jet stream, and an expansion of the Hadley cell sitting over Baja. It just seems like the precip gradient from Eureka to San Diego gets sharper and sharper every year.

        Again, I seriously freaking hope I’m WRONG!

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          I sincerely hope you are wrong also!

          • redlands

            Same !!!!!!

          • redlands

            Will have to check my rain stats since August 1981 – but it does appear that Southern Ca is trending to being drier overall — a overall downward trend to being drier —- not good news

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    41 years is to long for no sea level snow here, this has suddenly got on my nerves

    • Chris

      Yup!
      East Morgan Hill, February 24th 2011.
      The forecast was for partly cloudy skies after the risk of snow had ended.
      Then afternoon convection developed in the east bay hills and traveled SW over the southern Santa Clara Valley.
      A quick 2” stuck to the ground as the initial snow was grauple (soft hail balls that broke apart when it hit a hard surface)
      Then a heavy snow was able to stick on top of it. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6c9e0158e8f6f1378689045cd1e81a0af682a889942521f0ca5e087bec3ae564.jpg

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        wonder if flakes fell here around that time, I really don’t remember any cold temperatures with rain recently

    • Snow in San Jose in 2011. Just light flurries.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Cheer up Californians; we have the least dreary weather in the nation!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f185025889e28c21ee0ed85eab0a8ea06a08518d26933a16ae72d6e08c25d675.jpg

  • Cap’n

    NAM a little wetter for the Monday system, some snow midweek, take the kayaks out of storage next weekend? Looks fun enough to me.

  • molbiol

    Hmm… 580+DM heights over Socal possibly getting back towards 590DM as we approach Day 10 and beyond. Looks like Lancaster may end up with one of its latest hard freezes for November….if we get one at all this month

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • Cap’n

      You’re going to drive yourself crazy with this. Just know that at some point in the next 2 weeks you’re going to see some rain, and probably a little more or a little less than you expected.

      • Yeah I didn’t even post a 240 hour. I posted half that. Because there’s a nice system coming up already well before that. Check above.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Yeah but “consistently” dry for SoCal.

    • jstrahl

      You still using that greasy model kid stuff? 🙂 Anything past 24 hours is dreamland, be it fantasy or nightmare.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      My upvote is for the comment as opposed to what models are showing. I think the inconsistencies in the models has been driving everyone nuts recently.

    • matthew

      Fool me once, shame on you.
      Fool me 743 times, it is the model’s fault!!!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    While we are waiting for rain we can enjoy the weather we have now. This photo is the beach at Ventura two days ago courtesy of Nick Gianetti https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/013fee7fb26dddc95c15da942abd4a156fabff884324093a6f42318ffb69c355.jpg

    • AlTahoe

      and this is why people live in Southern Cal.

      • Tuolumne

        And while I’ll pass on same. In 6+ years I think I went to the beach only twice, once to see grunion.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • jstrahl

      What has to move east, the moisture? It can move without falling as rain.

      • Rainmaker (San Jose)

        yep, happens in San Jose all the time

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    I ain’t even mad. average highs are 64, this looks to be 8-12 degrees above normal, looks to be around 76 degree highs for the start of Thanksgiving week.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f6c7fd0aca8dd20fc06b0df9c8966c6efe30c951fa7ace8e896f1a65da923293.png

  • Cap’n

    Orographics, as Daniel mentioned below. We can probably expect high snow levels too. Bullseye Tahoe?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cebcfd3fa78239bda44d78412e8789d66a5c8615b50de93d6fc6e0f975232056.png

    • Tuned out for several hours, did I miss something? Because that looks fabulous, and similar to my double down prediction from earlier.

    • Bombillo1

      When isn’t orographics important? Not being sarcastic, but here in Ca it’s how we get our rain, no?

  • T-114 hours away, GFS still holding with 06z showing the great white greatness.
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017111206/gfs_asnow_swus_20.png

  • Bombillo1

    Looks like the sub tropical moisture part of Daniel’s conjecture is happening, and before next Thurs. http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/west/nhem/weus/rb.html

    • thebigweasel

      Wow!

  • Shane Ritter

    Why is nobody up early? I need my fix of daily weather machinations!

    • Charlie B

      “On the seventh day they rested.”

      • Shane Ritter

        I wake up during the week at 2:55, so I slept in today, to 5:30. So I got on here at 6:45 expecting people, and was disappointed. I feel very energetic today. Maybe it’s because I get to go to Montana for 9 days next week.

        • Charlie B

          Where in Montana?

          • Shane Ritter

            Missoula

          • Bombillo1

            A river runs through it?

          • Shane Ritter

            Yup

        • Thor

          Elk hunting? Bring your longjohns.

          • Shane Ritter

            No, family/fishing

  • thebigweasel

    Fairly spectacular display of gravity waves over Santa Barbara about 7:15 am
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b1507e5fe4e5e94faf960b910c6dfb0e0fa0dd2435d3b388440c62a35ad4f06.jpg

  • CHeden

    First light VIS shows what looks like an occluded front/squall line stretching in a straight line from the Ore-Was border down to west of Cape Mendocino. Given that the dirty ridge now over Cent/SoCal isn’t budging, nor is it producing any precip despite decent moisture content (i.e. just high clouds with drier air underneath in the mid-levels), I suspect the front to the NW will have an increasingly tough time progressing much further east at it’s current strength, as the main cyclonic energy remains offshore. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fbcc63bf811b4c2a66610525542c68073a4e9ab5d6d52faf3f1322a681e4aaa7.jpg

    • CHeden

      Here’s a nice closeup of the same occlusion now taking place over the NW coastal waters. Sure hope it holds together all the way to Cottonwood! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d4334e0dd8d9e29f654b177fd41dac12a35d1f090989d42915c465b01a77179.jpg

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      Our local weather guy in the Monterey Bay area said we will be at the very tail end of this with showers at best…

      • CHeden

        I concur.

      • Bombillo1

        The Pope’s nose?

    • inclinejj

      CH

      Did PG&E figure out the power issue?

      • CHeden

        YES!
        I did a complete re-check of all circuits that were exhibiting the most problems, and found the flickering was only on one phase, which I then luckily measured for an instant on the input side of the main breaker. The PGE tech then did a 100A stress test between my house and the transformer and there was no leakage present (identical to what other techs had done in the past). But, he believed my data, and went up to the transformer connections and gave them some exercise. And, voila! House lights on the front started flickering like crazy. Anyway, all connections have been replaced and now, after almost 10 years, I now have stable power. Even the supervisor came out to inspect the bummer connector….it got so hot over such a long period of time that the silicon insulation under the tape had turned to powder. It also showed that the connector had been recently heavily wrapped in tape by PGE…most likely when I did my solar upgrade….and the tape looked O.K. That meant that PGE in the past must have just re-wrapped the bummer connector instead of replacing it.
        When I asked if the failed connector reflected a long term problem, they said certainly..and that the type of damage is not from a “flash”/arc type of failure, but long term overheating.
        So, I asked that if that was the case, could PGE reasonably conclude that many/all of the electronic device failures I’ve had (all for bad power supplies) over the years could be related…and if so, could I file a claim with PGE?
        And, the answer was a hearty YES!
        Anyway, gonna start the paperwork now, and start making a list.
        As near as I can tell, things started going wonky around 2007-08….during which time I’ve had to replace over a dozen items including my home theater system, projection TV, microwave, sump pump controller, 4 or 5 device chargers, a burned up HVAC motor that led to replacing the entire HVAC unit, etc. Plus, very shortly after installing the solar system 2 1/2 yrs ago, the inverter’s main CPU board, I/O board and display board all went south….which took over 6 mos. to diagnose and repair. The inverter manufacturer said it was the first time they’d ever seen this type of multiple failures in a single installation…and could only suspect that some form of a power supply problem took out all the boards.
        Will let you know how I make out with PGE. Didn’t realize what their policy was.

        • inclinejj

          Awesome! P G & E gets a bad rap for San Bruno explosion and fire and shoddy work keeping the trees off the power lines(rightfully so) but I have always had excellent service from them. When we smelled gas one day, they came out right away and the guy checked everything inside and out. He found a couple burners were not clean and he cleaned them out and gave me a little brush to clean them.

          You can file a claim and I think you have a good case. They have the service records coming out.

  • CHeden

    HRRR coming on board with a band of enhanced precip coming onshore along the entire Oregon coast. The mean flow looks to parallel to the coast for quite a while, so we might be hearing of some local hydro issues there.
    Note the southern extent of the front is just to my north. A little further digging of the front, and we might get a shot of a brief squall/CF passage. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3ab0e9830d73a5a6b250ab62debab44d7db9d7e79bf8c1b60fa846391da05e85.gif

    • weathergeek100

      Wow, that might be the most perfectly parallel-to-the-coast rain band I’ve ever seen!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Reading the NWS Reno AFD looks like they’ve been following along with @CrashingOut has been talking about. The question is will Al see more snow than Shane and Charlie…

    “Snow levels will fall to valley floors from Susanville and Gerlach northward and to lake level around the Tahoe Basin where some accumulating snow is becoming more
    likely. Before all is said and done, a foot or two of snow is possible for the Sierra above 7000 feet with several inches across valleys of northeast CA/northwest NV, at lake level around Tahoe, and passes along Hwy 395 through Mono County. Some spillover is
    possible with the front across other parts of western NV as well where snow levels could fall low enough to produce some light snowfor the foothills by late Thursday.”

    • Shane Ritter

      I’ve become an old fogey since I bought a business. I hope the same snow stays in the mountains! Lol. I like rain down here, snow above 5500!

      • inclinejj

        Is your business rain/snow/sun dependant?

        • Shane Ritter

          Kinda, it’s food. So if the weather is bad, we actually get busier, but if there’s snow on the road, we are dead.

  • Chris

    Looking back at my records, the year 1999-2000 was the most average year with 24.42” of rain falling where average is 24.68.
    That’s as close as you can get!
    However, the individual months that season was FAR from average with the exception of November and of course the summer months.
    Check it out!
    Rainfall received, average, then percent of average respectively.

    Sept .02 .24 8%
    Oct. .15 1.27 12%
    Nov. 2.08 2.45 85%
    Dec. .32 4.62 7%
    Jan. 9.00 4.66 193%
    Feb. 9.59 5.34* 180%
    Mar. 1.96 3.61 54%
    Apr. 1.06 1.45 73%
    May .20 .53 38%

    TOTAL 24.42 24.68 98.9%

    * is there any other station that has February as the wettest month of the year like mine?

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      February had been one of our driest months here in the previous 2-4 seasons before this year’s

      • Chris

        February or did you mean January?

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          I just don’t remember February being wetter then January in the drought years. I got my Davis Vantage Vue in August 2014 so I don’t know for sure before Feb, Jan 2015, I’ve also had significant data problem too so that doesn’t help.

      • jstrahl

        I also think you meant January. Compare Jan ’14 to Feb ’14, for example.

    • Did it rain on the 29th?

      • Chris

        Damn you!!!!
        Now I have to look back at my records when I get back home and check.

    • jstrahl

      Me! I picked up over 10 inches in Feb 2000. January quite wet, Dec likewise quite dry, but May was well above average. Finished well above average.

      • Chris

        May is typically a showery month when it does rain.
        Many times the Central Valley can get heavier rain amounts than the coastal mountains.
        Where are you located jstrahl?

        • inclinejj

          May of 2011 we had 5 rain outs while replacing the windows and siding on the house. Worked around showers and in heavy drizzle 3-4 more days. Pacifica.

  • Shane Ritter
    • David

      Nice fish! Where were you fishing?

      • Shane Ritter

        In the water.

      • Bombillo1

        Very fat that fish. Female, probably triploid. Shane is right handed. Not terribly high elevation, definitely fall. Not many others fishing, maybe private property. That’s all I can get….

        • Shane Ritter

          It’s 5800ft, it’s a creek that has lots of beaver pounding, and gets virtually no pressure. It’s in a remote area of norcal, close to Reno tho. However it’s not a triploid, it’s wild, the creek gets no stocking.

          • Bombillo1

            Thanks. Sounds interesting. Especially with no one else around and public access! Hard to do. The food base is good, I’m surprised it was that high in elevation. The beaver have been trapped out around here. Nice to see someone appreciate that kind of place.

          • inclinejj

            It looks like one of the creeks that comes out of one of the Lakes Between Truckee & Reno and Highway 89,

            That’s my .02 cents.

    • CHeden

      That’s Sac River size.
      Mighty nice.
      Fly or spinning, if I may ask?

      • Shane Ritter

        Shore, steamers.

        • CHeden

          Thanks!
          Sounds a lot like the way I fish Eagle Lake around this time of year. Fish come up right to the shore then cast for them with Marabou jigs at the end of a casting bubble fully filled to get it to sink.

      • Shane Ritter

        Check out my fly fishing page on Facebook, it’s called Truckee river fisherman. I do a TON of fly fishing in the Eastern Sierra and all across Nevada. It’s actually what got me into weather so much.

        • CHeden

          Just cruised your page. Excellent!
          We have a similar passion for the reasons for going fishing.
          This Summer I replaced my stolen rod with a Winston, 9’6″ 6-weight just for the bigger fish and extra distance. Been so busy though, haven’t put it to much use other than here at home on the lower Sac.
          So far, only one football to test it with. But it was a nice fish. Will try to post a pic once my cell and computer start talking again.
          BTW, ever been up in the Elko area? The lakes north of there are a favorite of mine.

    • weathergeek100

      Yum! Was that dinner?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I’m feeling like we’re gonna see some very cold air on the order of 30s in the Bay Area and single digits in Tahoe in very late November and early December.

  • inclinejj

    I couldn’t post Friday but Pacifica was in the rare donut hole. Geo, were you up here Friday late morning? It was raining in downtown SF and raining in Half Moon Bay and there was a steady downpour in South San Francisco. Only picked up .06 in Back of the Valley in Park Pacifica. It was also raining on the North End of Paciifca Manor District and Sharp Park.

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • Shane Ritter

      Im glad the Euro is the one showing the trough!

  • matt

    Cool here high desert Lancaster area 57 and overcast. I think we got moisture coming from the south but don’t know if will get anything.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Saw this us precipitation map on Twitter from weather.us. San Jose has made it to the big time. Replaced San Francisco as the listed city for Bay area.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3eeffb40a71d1a0815cc59922639b85718d8936d29a05dde5727dbacb2120a6.jpg The map must go of population versus tourist popularity.

    • Dogwood

      I’m sure there’ll be a banner in the city council hall proclaiming we’re #1 among meteorologists.

      Pity when Austin overtakes SJ as the 10th largest city in 2020.
      Gnashing of teeth downtown.

    • Then Fargo ND has a legitimate gripe.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Lol. Sure for tourists that’s ok. We all know Oakland and SF are the heart and soul (and not rainshadiwed) core of this great metropolis we Bay Area peons reside in.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • Caterpillar

    Somewhat off-topic but thought readers here might appreciate — Daniel, feel free to delete as you see fit.
    https://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sky_spotters.png

  • Thunder98
    • Fairweathercactus

      That is a So Cal treat only So Cal can provide. Such bright colors that do not do a damn thing.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Booo, just got on the computer and saw that satellite image and jumped to the radar site to see – zero, nada, zilch. ) ^ : Big disconnect between the tropical moisture feed and the stalled cold low up off BC. No forcing, no rainy. I thought, Wow, So. Cal is getting rain! Yes! Maybe our beloved southlanders are finally getting some precip.

      Nope.

      I’m not believing anything is even on the horizon for any of us unless we get cold low pressure coming in off the Pacific.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    This is a question for Davis Vantage Vue owners, what program or thing do you use to transfer your data to your computer?

    • inclinejj

      I also see people mount them about a foot above the roof line. I recieved correct wind speeds when I had the collector/sensor a couple feet above the back fence. Moved it up to the roof. Much better.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette