2017 hottest summer in California history; Cut-off low may bring widespread thunderstorms

Filed in Uncategorized by on September 9, 2017 4,167 Comments

Overview of recent all-time record California heat

2017 was the warmest (or near-warmest) summer on record over most of the Western U.S. (NOAA/NCDC)

2017 brought extraordinary summer heat to California. While record-breaking early-season heatwaves largely spared the immediate coastal areas (but brought endless weeks of searing triple-digit heat to interior areas), extreme temperatures extended all the way to the beaches over the past couple of weeks.

The late summer and early autumn months are traditionally warmest of the year in coastal California, as the marine layer tends to become suppressed and offshore winds occasionally allow hotter air to encroach from the east. But the late August and early September heatwave that California just endured was on an entirely different level than those historically experienced–breaking (and, in many cases, shattering) temperature records of all kinds. Countless daily (and monthly) temperature records were set statewide, and this heatwave continued the already record-breaking streak of 100+ degree days across much of the Central Valley. Overnight temperatures stayed well above average daytime highs in many places, and new all-time “warmest minimum” records were set. Quite a few coastal or near-coastal California cities matched or exceeded their all-time temperature records for any month–an impressive list that spans from the North Coast (Eureka) to the central coast (San Luis Obispo) and apparently even includes (amazingly) the Farallon Islands in the midst of California’s cold oceanic upwelling zone. Easily the most amazing statistic during this extraordinary event was the fall of downtown San Francisco’s all-time temperature record, where the observed 106 degrees surged past the previous hottest temperature (103) in 147 years of record keeping.

It might not be a surprise, therefore, that summer 2017 was officially California’s hottest on record (and much of the Labor Day heatwave actually fell out outside of the formal June-August definition of “summer”). In fact, 2017 broke (by a considerable margin) the previous record set…just last year, in 2016. Indeed, this year once again puts an exclamation point on a sustained, long-term warming trend over the past century in California. Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heatwaves is one of the clearest hallmarks of our warming climate, and it’s likely that “extreme” temperatures like those experienced this summer will become fairly routine in just a few decades.

California has experienced a sustained long-term warming trend in summer, and 2017 was the warmest season on record. (NOAA/NCDC)

 

Unusually widespread thunderstorm outbreak possible across California

An offshore cut-off low will be in a favorable position to produce relatively widespread thunderstorm activity. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A slow-moving cut-off low pressure system is currently setting up shop off the Southern California coast, and has the potential to bring some very active weather to certain parts of the state over the next 5 days. Mountain and desert thunderstorms have already been quite active over the past few days, but beginning on Sunday convective development is likely much closer to (and perhaps including) the coast. In fact, convective parameters for late tomorrow afternoon for much of Southern California and the Central Coast are quite impressive, with able mid-level instability, sufficient column water vapor, and even some large-scale ascent forced by diffluent flow east of the offshore low.

With all of these ingredients in place, numerous thunderstorms will likely develop over the mountains of Southern California tomorrow afternoon, at least a handful of which will sustain themselves as they move east to west over the coastal plain and even offshore. At least a few of these storms may be quite strong (or even severe), bringing intense downpours along with possible hail and gusty winds. This, tomorrow could be a pretty active weather day even in places that rarely see this kind of vigorous thunderstorm activity.

An offshore jet streak will provide dynamical support for thunderstorms over the SoCal Bight on Sunday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

There is at least a modest risk of flash flooding in interior areas hit by strong storms, and some localized issues could even occur outside of the mountains. It’s actually possible that thunderstorms may be more widespread tomorrow across portions of SoCal (including Los Angeles County) than they were during the recent “Lidia” tropical remnant event. (On a related note, if you haven’t checked out this video showing extraordinary webcam footage of the highly localized but quite damaging Santa Barbara microburst last week, you really should. Also, this one.).

On Monday and Tuesday, the thunderstorm threat will shift northward to encompass most of the rest of California–even including the Bay Area and Central Valley.

The GFS is showing fairly widespread precipitation accumulations over most of California over the next 5 days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Scattered thunderstorms may ultimately occur uniformly over much of NorCal as moisture and instability will be present virtually everywhere. This sort of synoptic set-up–with a fairly deep offshore cut-off low and modest amounts of late monsoonal moisture–is reminiscent of the sort of pattern that has historically caused spectacular early autumn lightning displays over parts of California. Hopefully, this event will be associated with enough wetting rainfall to avoid numerous wildfire strikes, but given the time of year and the antecedent heat/dryness, this event will probably pose a significant fire weather threat.

Later next week, the cut-off low will finally move inland and perhaps bring a final round of isolated showers and thunderstorms to a fairly broad area (perhaps even the coast), though coverage and intensity should be less than earlier in the week. After that, quieter weather conditions will likely return.

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  • Fairweathercactus

    GFS today pushes that storm back to the end of the run and holds the ridge together longer. It also no longer shows a inside slider around October 7th.

    • What run you looking at? 12Z today looks more punchy than 12Z yesterday.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Hi Res CFS. Cactus Forecast System.

        • Pfirman

          I don’t know, those guys are pretty green.

      • Fairweathercactus

        That was 6z

  • honzik

    I’m seeing the GFS models bringing in one storm after the other to the Pacific NW, with the tails of the fronts brushing NorCal. Sometimes the rain dips to the Bay Area, sometimes not, but it looks like the classic fall pattern has come a bit early, which may bode an early start to the rainfall here.

    I’m going by intuition here – is there any real data showing we might get an early start to our rain fall, or will it just be rain fail?

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Depends on who’s holding the football. Last season, it wasn’t Miss Van Pelt.

    • Chris

      October 2007 also showed a very active pacific jet with frequent storms on the west coast with the tail ends brushing the Bay Area.
      The season was a little above average mostly due to the Jan 4th storm of that year (not to be confused with THE Jan 4th storm of 1982)
      5.5″ of rain fell in Morgan Hill in 12 hrs that day!

      • 2007-2008 year was all about January 2008 for CA

        • AlTahoe

          Yep 5 weeks of constant cold snow storms in Tahoe with insane snow drifts even to lake level. Then an Early spring. Sounds perfect to me. Plus we have no where to put the water if we have another above average precip season.

          • I don’t think we’ll have another warm wet winter. Maybe a dry cold one. You might not be in donut hole this year. ??

        • Chris

          Correct and in a big way!

    • Gut check: Rain fail
      Great for PacNW. We will grate.

      • Pfirman

        Harsh. But succinct.

        • Better than looking at anologs of wet Autumns in the PNW with Niña. The Oct to April for CA looks like a botched autopsy.

          • Pfirman

            Let the dead do something something.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    While nothing like the fire in OC, there’s a 4 alarm fire in the Oakland Hills. Fall, breezy, and hot outside….this is enough to scare residents w/out a doubt. Sounds like evacuations are in progress.

    https://twitter.com/KTVU/status/912763797038800896

    • jstrahl

      Yikes!! Mountain Blvd and Edwards Ave appears to be the location.

      • inclinejj

        Are those fire breaks on the hill or drainage ditches?

        • jstrahl

          Good question!

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          drainage I believe, if you remember the old quarry that was in Oakland (use to be visible from the Oak Coliseum pre-Mt Davis). The fire is burning in the area where the quarry was, below and above are new homes that were built on it.

    • inclinejj
  • inclinejj

    Pacifica 89.1 degrees 21 percent humidity. 29.61 barometer. 12:56 pm.

  • Cap’n
    • sezwhom

      EC, GFS and GEM are all showing pattern change to cooler and wetter first 5 to 10 days of October.

    • Nathan

      18Z looks fun.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    Its 87F in Santa Maria with a dew point of 38F. LAX is currently 77F with a muggy dew point of 60F. Why is it much more humid in LAX today than it is in Santa Maria?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab681bc00acf52893de55e258d86a98eecdb883d0449113f34a248444a6fe781.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/67ff86e6e7ce49d6ce7e5984e4473d60ce88a642e65ab91bdacd49c42787f829.png

    • molbiol

      Currently there is a weak cutoff low over Arizona and strong ridge over the NE Pacific. From 500mb down to 925 mb the flow is from the NNE over Santa Maria which allows drier warmer air overland flow into Santa Maria. Meanwhile, the flow over LAX is more NNW which allows low level Pacific air to flow inland. Away from the Airport, North flow is allowing warm dry air into the inland valleys (Burbank, San Fernando, foothill locations). This same pattern is making for a surprisingly cool dry crystal clear day here in Lancaster. Typical October weather…

      • sezwhom

        Santa Maria’s wind has turned West to 10 mph at 2 PM. LAX has WSW but some high clouds at 16,000′. They even reported FEW at 2500 on 2 pm obs. Hence, higher RH. WSW 13 10.00 FEW025,FEW160

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Smells like smoke here, but no visible smoke

  • Thunderstorm

    A picture today from Puerto Rico seen from the air that shows a huge SOS. Certainly a message that they need help. Unfortunately those that can get the help there are still themselves SOS – Stuck On Stupid.

    • Rhetorical question: Why did it take so long to get supplies food water generators etc out there? Before Maria struck the catastrophic aftermath was already in some metric

      • Nathan

        It’s an island like 800 miles from the mainland where all that stuff is located.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    NOAA’s forecasting highs in the 70s here toward the weekend. Might look like a mirage and could really see above 80 for much of the Central Coast through mid next week, even with a ridge weakening. Temps might have peaked either today or tomorrow. Hoping October will be a cooler month.

  • jstrahl

    High of 90 deg F in central Berkeley today, around 3-3:30PM

    • Pfirman

      Hotter than Woodpile. Just crazy. Freaky crazy.

      • jstrahl

        Happens in October, Wind often offshore, air subsides after crossing the Coast Range, warming up. Even some episodes during which the highest readings are right on the coast.

  • No new news on Vanuatu or Agung.

    The 18z has some news however, the GooFuS keeps trending the right way for a wet October. There is run to run variability on where the dry line is, going from far NorCal down to the Bay, the waves in question keep coming back into the models so it’s one of two things – Lucy season, that time of the year where the gfs starts smoking bathtub crank, OR the model is latching onto several impulses of moisture coming at regular intervals.

    Praying to Vishnallahjesusfucious for the latter. Central California and SoCal I don’t see much getting past your deflector shields for the forecast period.

  • Thunderstorm

    91 today, humidity low 24%, current bar 29.71 and falling with NE wind at 4mph. Thermal low must be setting up on the coast.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Hope we get an artic blast with some moisture like what was forecasted eearlier this year around January 2nd, snow was even possible at sea level at one point!

    • Eddie Garcia

      I’ve been waiting for such event to happen at one point. I remember seeing the gfs putting snow all the way down to the the central valley, but out of nowhere a run of the gfs just shaved the cold out and instead gave us a bigger and wetter storm.

      • Pfirman

        I’m starting to believe the GFS snoozes from time to time and this stuff is just REM sleep.

    • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

      Like I said, I’m predicting a drier and colder than normal winter. Historical widespread snow at sea level down to the central coast and very low elevations in Southern California. Unfortunately, there will also be weeks of clear skies, frosty mornings and crisp afternoons without precipitation. Think 2006-2007 winter when we had a very hot summer followed by a colder and drier than normal winter.

      • RunningSprings6250

        OK I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that while yes it will be below average precipitation wise, mountain (and low elevation) snow will actually be near to above average due to colder temps….thus leaving us with a more memorable winter and more beneficial snow melt!

        😛

        • Pfirman

          I’ll vote for that.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          Yes, for those in the mountains. Otherwise a cold dry winter sounds very borinhg.

          • RunningSprings6250

            I’m talking like 75%-95% of normal anyways so not too bad for the lowlands….trying to be optimistic here without pulling a Tyler or an 805. ??

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Ahh. Ok, I can deal with that. All I really want is some strong very dynamic GOA storms. Last year was fun, but it was AR ground hog day, which are normally not that fun for shadowed areas.

      • Darin

        WWKSP. What Would Kenny Strawn Predict? 🙂

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          Ample bombogenisis

        • mosedart (SF)

          Hurricane landing in Eureka mid October.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I hope we never have a winter as dry as 2006-07. That winter was simply awful!

        • Fairweathercactus

          I remember the only real highlight of that winter being one storm in December. I worked for the school district at that time and it was a or two before the winter break. We had a thunderstorm in the afternoon that brought very dry sky, wind gust, a some rain and hail but it was not much. Lightning ended quickly as well.

      • mattzweck

        i hope we do get low elevation snow. down here in socal. let the high deserts Lancaster palmdale get at-least hopefully foot of snow. wishful thinking. this coming winter 2018

      • PRCountyNative

        What about the surf??

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Snow levels have been rising, so sea level snow seems less likely these days unfortunately.

      • Fairweathercactus

        Sounds just like my prediction of a cold and dry Winter with downtown getting around 9.50 inches of rain.

  • It’s a Gulf of Alaska party on the 0z!

    • DayHoe Herald

      Much to my wife’s chagrin, thanks to your post my 6 hour winter OCD begins — had been wavering but managing to hold out until now — I’d say more, but I need to go check the models

      • Yeah that recent snow up in the Sierra wrecked my model-fast, I’ve now gone whole hog and I read every run, I’m broken.

    • This intraseasonal pattern is interesting for sure.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      a scary reminder of what happens when natural world gets TOO much snow

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Has the world gotten too much snow? Not saying you are wrong, but I keep hearing with a warming world, snow levels will rise, which in effect reduces the amount of land that can be covered in snow.

        Also, we are coming off a wet year and the article is referring to normal or drought years.

        In my mind, we should be happy about this. its better this than having no waterfall in April.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Indeed 8283. With the global mountain glaciers and snowfields melting off and drying up everything they’ve fed over the millennia, to see the Sierra’s with such a snow depth as we have had after last winter, is a God sent!

  • “The difference is this is an island sitting in the middle of an ocean,” Trumps said. “And it’s a big ocean, a really, really big ocean.”
    Might I add: And not far from the mainland. And it’s inhabitants are US citizens

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Please…I beg all of us, weather geeks united, that we keep this as our only site that we all enjoy going to that doesn’t have any political discussions/arguments/rants/hyperventilation’s, a place of refuge from the insanity all around us….please. Thanks!

      • Bombillo1

        I share your concern and I often think about Daniel’s delicate position in trying to have a format here that does not devolve into the usual internet mud-slinging. On the other hand, I see a nexus between human activity, climate and maybe now weather. The politics of this is impossible for us to resolve but for me there is some responsibility to raise awareness as to what is happening and in doing so we will be skirting this edge.

        • Charlie B

          Politics is permeating everything. I have tuned out sports and I refrain from TV, unless it is Weather Gone Viral or some other fluff show of TWC. I have been following this site since 2013 and there has been a subtle shift in the discussion focus over time. When it gets too overt I tune out, and Daniel sometimes intervenes. For the most part it works. I try to comment on real life things, such as the observable fact that places like Barrow, Alaska are objectively warmer than in years past but if someone says the arctic is “broiling” because charts show it as red I try to point out that red color in the arctic is far different than red color in California, because up there you would still die quickly from hypothermia if you go outside without proper protection for most of the year. When people rail about the loss of arctic sea ice (it is real) I check the charts and note that it is still something like 92% of historic “average” and also note that large areas of Antarctica are covered by thousands of feet of solid ice in areas that have never once had a temperature close to 32 degrees. Hyperbole about what is going on distracts from the substance of what is being actually observed.

          • I would point out that Arctic sea ice volume in autumn has indeed declined by ~75% in the past 35 years, and that it’s primarily warming ocean temperatures at the margins of the Antarctic continent (which only have to get marginally above freezing to rapidly melt ice sheets) that are causing ice loss in the south.

          • Charlie B

            According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center, the arctic sea ice reached its seasonal minimum on September 13, with a coverage of 1.79 million square miles, which is the 8th lowest in the 38 year history of satellite records. This is 610k square miles lower than the 1981-2010 median, or about 75% of that median. It was also 193k square miles above 2016 and 2012. “The overall rate of ice loss this summer has slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure focused over the central Arctic Ocean.”

            Am I reading this wrong? I admit I only glanced around the net so this might be either bogus or I didn’t read it carefully enough and am maybe comparing apples to oranges.

          • Sea ice extent from year-to-year can be quite noisy, although in a strict sense your numbers are correct (although that would still be a 25% loss vs 8% that you mentioned earlier).

            A more representative metric of the overall state of the cryosphere (i.e. the “ice system”) is the overall volume of sea ice present (i.e., a 3-D measure vs the 2-D measure of extent). This is where the >75% loss comes from. In other words: ice has been thinning in a vertical sense much faster than in a horizontal sense.

            Zach Labe has some nice visualizations of this (note: the purple lines are from the early 1980s):
            http://sites.uci.edu/zlabe/arctic-sea-ice-volumethickness https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/63a12ff0bcb67fc4a0a98e0feeab5c61b270c8025f940701a04fe09d01c2f144.png

          • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

            This is a really good representation, thanks for posting this image.

          • Charlie B

            Good graphics, even though I am quite color blind. As for the 92% figure, that was from NASA back in March 2017 and referenced winter conditions, not summer. Winter max was indeed 92% (actually 92.5%) of norms. The article also noted that winter max was decreasing 2.8% per decade whereas summer minimums was decreasing 13.5% per decade. Makes sense. Volume (thinning) is another matter. (I was also surprised to learn that arctic polar ice in areas where it does not seasonally melt is only a few meters thick.) Thus, I confess I was comparing apples to oranges.
            ( I have been in a boring mediation all day and this was a much needed diversion!)

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            I with you Charlie. If you want to rant about politics, go to Huffington Post or Politico. Plenty of swords people to engage there. Not here, please. This is our refuge from the madness of the day. Weather is planetary physics laid bare. Beyond our control, an orchestrated phenomenon which gives life to the soil in the form of precipitation. We come here to share, inform, joke and learn. I’m so grateful to everyone who contributes to this blog. And a special thanks to Daniel, who created and manages this site like an attentive parent.

            Thank you!

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Knowing 2p he always likes to make small jokes. This time it had Trump in the joke but i dont think it was politically motivated.

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Understood, 2P is a great contributor to our Weather Discussions! No harm, no foul….

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I can’t say more than this at the moment due to the volatility of the model guidance, but there is indeed a big change in the pattern ahead… & if I do say so myself resembles very similarly to what we saw begin last October except we won’t have extratropical lows near Hawaii actively streaming in moisture to the west coast connecting with a deep trough over PNW US/Canada (or at least that’s the current thinking.) I’ve added the necessary graphics to visualize what we are dealing with, and one of the graphics shows why we are dealing with some wonky model runs especially in the GFS. Check out the atmospheric wave break (Rossby waves) that moves over the Aleutians otherwise known as the Aleutian Ridge… Until we see that wave break form we are in for a bit of a bad forecasting position yet again heading into next month. I’ve also added the Euro weeklies to show that there is indeed a slight trend in stormy conditions dropping further south into the state over the next 32 days (yes, that is a long way out, just worth noting.) Pinch me & have at it. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66963d2c71750413009acb8ce116ac9da2bbd2d5bf71f8c76967d64ef7a80914.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6df45c39c71d0db8ba030bad9b636a7a4e6c8797d1fbbfdb0f0d798a3a19a5b4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ac3bda75a4e71bf9bbd89ca32a2dcbd108f9e1d1bd8e7af0cd766db9d62d69c.png

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • jstrahl

        Thanks a LOT for ALL of these!

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          No problem :), it’s nice to get back on and talk a different pattern for a change, things have been rather stagnant here since Saturday… So this is nice to see.

      • Craig Matthews

        Love the animations here, thanks.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          No problem! Always fun creating them.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Those little lows last October put on quite a lightning show! The narrow flow into socal was very unstable. I think I received 2 inches from that, although I was right in the firing line

      • AlTahoe

        We picked up almost 8″ of rain last Oct here while average is only 1.5″
        We have been 400% of average for the months of Aug and Sept this year so another well above average month seems like a good possibility. Our last below average month for precip was last November.

        • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

          Did you get thunderstorms up there also?

    • CHeden

      One of the most comprehensive pattern reviews I’ve seen here on WW.
      Well done!!
      Little to add at the moment except I’m noting the overall evolution of an increasingly progressive pattern here. Initially, things are/continue balky as blocks over the EPac and inland over the intermountain west keeping things pretty much status-quo with a “confused” CoL over the SW, before finally ejecting NE within a strengthening jet stream in about a week.
      To be honest, the overall pattern doesn’t look that much different than what we would typically expect for this time of year… which is as the Fall pattern strengthens, the EPac high’s ridge slowly weakens on it’s NE flank, thus allowing GoA energy to gradually dip progressively further south. So far, the parent lows/troughs/CoL’s we’ve seen so far in the NW have generally tracked inland (eventually) instead of pulling up off the NW coast before retrograding back out into the northern GoA…a key difference this year vs. recent history.
      Lastly, I am not seeing any appreciable tropical connection(s) with any of the northern storms as the W-E jet will be acting as a potent barrier against storms tapping juicier air from the south (cold air trapped north of the jet with warmer, more stable air to the south)…so any “major” precip events that do happen will be more of a zonal flow/ AR type of setup, with occasionally more modest storms rippling thru. What this usually results in is a parade of mostly drier lows tracking east rather quickly within the jet, with periodic buckles allowing energy to dig down the coast from the NW.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I had to get a haircut after I posted this, I was eager to discuss with you though the potential pattern. Great points and I couldn’t agree more, did you note the subtropical jet strengthening over Hawaii as well? I would like to keep an eye on that as well as we head into the pattern, but the Aleutian Ridge is going to be a key player yet again on where those northern lows swing south or west on the backside when moving into the PNW. I think the Euro is handling this pretty well and showing exactly why you’re getting at about drier lows than usual. Definitely an evolving pattern and I will continue to add some input over the next 7 days here on the blog if things change or stay put. Another fly in the ointment here is that the EPAC could see an uptick in tropical convection and possibly some receiving hurricanes as we head into next month, which is quite something since the Niña is rapidly developing & also there has been a few small blips in the models that even some WPAC energy may get entrained into the EAJ. Once again the whole NPAC is getting into gear again and we sure will have a lot to look out for if the trough originating over the PNW will move further west or east as you noted generally the track has been pretty inland thus far.

    • CHeden

      Thanks.
      Covers most of the bases….including the hinderance of the Jones Act to get PR on a more stable economic/self-sufficient road to recovery.
      Please note that our government spokesmen/managers (and media) are conveniently side-stepping this antiquated “shakedown” policy…with recent tweets suggesting that PR is just a poorly run pseudo-state with massive debt that needs to be repaid.
      Out of respect for the WW charter, I’ll refrain from making any further comments, and try to stick to the facts as much as possible.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        I think Pres T and our current media are equally to blame. The media did not cover it until it looked like this disaster might become trumps Katrina. And then trump focusing on football… Us citizens are also to blame as we are not treating Puerto Rico like we would a state.

        • The only good thing is how it will all be remembered 5 years from now – this is Brownie you’re doing a heck of a job all over again, just worse because in this case it’s more Brownie you’re a son of a bitch, get all the brownies off the field, they must bow to me.
          History will look very poorly upon this man, another reason I hope he doesn’t keel over tomorrow – best case is Mueller moves in and then T lives to be 100, rotting in misery over all effort that will be expended the second he is gone to undo his damage.

      • Thanks. I’ve already deleted some comments today for straying too far off topic.

        • GR

          You do what has to be done. The recriminations and second guessing can come later.

      • Scap

        I know there were 11 boats lined up waiting for the port to open but it seems like with so much damage they are going to need to do air drops to reach people. Our media sucks too as it is just opinion shows that spark up debates but with little infrastructure still working does anybody really know how bad this devastating event is?

        • Rusty Rails

          The governor says there are supplies starting to stack up at the port but nowhere near enough qualified truck drivers to transport them. Phone service is down so they can’t be contacted but the gov’t is trying to spread the word that drivers should make their way to the port for further instructions.

        • Thunderstorm

          Don’t let the Red Cross off the hook either. Haven’t heard or seen them in action in Puerto Rico. Time for 60 minutes to expose where the money really goes again. Repulsive!

          • inclinejj

            Remember those little UNICEF boxes they gave us as kids on Halloween. The Director of UNICEF in the Bay Area used the collection money to not only buy a brand new house on Pedro Point in Pacifica, but gut the kitchen and bathrooms and remodel them to his personal taste.

          • Thunderstorm

            Yep, what goes on now is unfit to be posted on this weather site.

    • jstrahl

      Thanks a LOT for this, Daniel!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I shared that with everyone around, thanks Daniel.

    • Chris

      I think a SMALL part of the problem regarding the media not being present is that HOW would they get there.
      Either way it’s a sad day for our country that our government officials can’t do a better job taking care of our OWN people.

      • PRCountyNative

        And a gentle reminder that relying on the media for information is a mug’s game. The vast majority of our media is large for profit corporations. Whether it is California Weather or anything else, the bias is overwhelmingly towards making money, with secondary biases towards corporatism and the status quo. The media has no obligation to tell the truth or report the facts. Keeping that in mind is helpful.

        The best media story ever is a baby in a well. The second best is anything with a compelling video. If you doubt it, look at the ‘To kneel or not to kneel’ coverage right now. I dare anyone to find a reasonable discussion of the underlying issue in the press…

        When looking at coverage of climate, or weather, this holds just as true. Frustration in regards to the coverage is missing the point, their objective has nothing to do with informing folks or telling the truth.

      • I’ve seen major network anchors and others reporting from Puerto Rico daily.

  • molbiol

    On this date in 2010, the temperature in Downtown Los Angeles hit 113 degrees and some surrounding areas got even hotter. This was followed by a very late season surge of monsoon moisture courtesy of a couple of cutoff lows that produced widespread convection during the last days of September into early October. In fact this pattern persisted into mid October when a strong cutoff low dropped out of the North Pacific down into Baja where it tapped into unusually moist tropical air and produced one the most vivid T-storm outbreaks in quite sometime. And of course everyone remembers what happened later in November and December when a multi-day atmospheric river impacted Southern California…

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      It rained for about a week in SoCal, and caught everyone completely off guard as the AR never moved for days!

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I remember that pattern back in December 2010, which resulted in one of the wettest Decembers that I have ever seen here in Socal.

    • Fairweathercactus

      I remember around 11 AM we had quite the lightning show when we had that surge here in Whittier. A few CG’s hit some things around Whittier and La Mirada.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for the memory.
      The max on 9/27 was 111F at my site w/ minimum of 81. October produced 2.68 of regular rainfall & an amazing 15.79 inches in December only!

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      2010 was an incredible year for Socal, especially the winter. I was training at Camp Pendleton from Dec 09-Feb-2010, it rained so much during that time. A considerable portion of our training was canceled, so our instructors tried to get a night shooting in. We hiked 3 miles out beyond the hills to the range and it started to pour. The range was canceled and we tried hiking back but the dry creek-bed we crossed earlier was flooded. We had to wait a while in the cold rain at dark for the 7 ton drivers to be recalled and get us.

      Wish I was able to stay there for the rest of the year molbiol! That was quite the year for Socal, i’m glad I was able to witness part of it.

  • molbiol

    One more bit of trivia: There was quite the discussion on this board yesterday about low elevation snow events in California. Here is a list of years where low elevation snow was observed in the Lancaster/ Palmdale area. Generally snow in Lancaster is a good indicator of a significant low elevation snow event in the Los Angeles Area. Also included is ENSO status. As others have noted, the last two decades have featured a decrease in the frequency of these events (climate change?). Also, the seems to be a weak tendency toward these events during La Nina or Neutral years (I have NOT done the appropriate statistical test to show this though)…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef97c842f9883a1a3d7835335cc733a039b9193bde65911953a9dc11d96624bf.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62ef2edd047ef1f177530559e6945a676062696b3db80eda1a6d393a0e1e42c5.jpg

  • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

    I see lots of talk of the upcoming pattern shift, and many of the regulars eagerly awaiting the first significant rainfall of the season. It had me curious what the overall reservoir situation was, and I was pleasantly surprised for late September. It’s also notable how low they have had to draw Oroville down for the repairs. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/577502ac9ed45998d1298a8cdab0e0ddab0d359f63f4b785b924e6a7fab9aa8d.png

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Curious to know how many water years we’ve been through where the reservoirs were 75% or greater before the first significant rainfall of each season.

      • Craig Matthews

        Haven’t had the time lately but id look up the fall of 1983, for one…

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Craig, it’s good to hear from you, I hope you’re doing well. I will for sure give it a look this evening. Glad to see you got the time to check in.

          • Craig Matthews

            Thanks bro. That’s a great question about the reservoirs and sure will be interesting to see what you find.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Thanks! I have to look into this tomorrow evening, been dealing with a flat tire & a late night at work today LOL.

  • Cap’n

    Hoping we see outlooks like this mid-winter, maybe we’ll finally get snow at lake level again.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d4b2ef77522c7d0392947caf36a79d105b099991381181e6fa154018b2ee7ffb.png

    • DayHoe Herald

      How’s your elbow feeling?

      • Cap’n

        Grindy

  • inclinejj

    87.1 degrees today. Wifey thought it was a great idea to have me paint the fence. Oh it’s warm out today, the paint will dry faster. Now it’s time to clean the carpets. Good thing the A’s game so I could listen!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    The models this time of year are like a seasaw, high pressure sits on top one run, next run low pressure is on top

  • 18z+12z showing the smallest dusting of snow atop Mammoth in the next 24hrs.
    Odd, and not believable.
    Still a lot of waffling on the strength of the deflector shield however zero doubt about the impulses of low pressure coming in early Oct, if Cap’ns NOAA outlook sticks Oregon is going to become largely fire free finally.

  • CHeden

    OMG, what’s happening with the GFS?
    Here’s the 384hr. total precip.
    No further comment until I see some further corroboration(s) from other sources.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b7dea48e60da60a6167337d323dabc2b206e66b835d783f44e73ee6959fca96.gif

    • Bombillo1

      Hacksaw Ridge.

    • Nate

      Our little island of (in)sanity

    • Nathan

      Is that really so atypical for 9/27-10/13?

    • Cap’n

      A cursed state. Will we ever get a real winter again?

    • matthew

      Did you notice what looks like a never ending AR pointing at Central America? Not sure what is considered normal for that region, but several runs have looked severe.

      • Some spin-up with a couple of tropical distunances. There’s not a lot of West-East as far as fronts or A/R. It’s just there, there. Look at the Indonesian / Maitime Area too

      • KrisKastForecast

        that’s the ITCZ, completely normal for this time of year down there, The flow is from east to west.

    • Oh god.

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      I like how the precip stops at the state line

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      The GFS is like Lucy in Peanuts, pulling the football away just as we get worked up over her tease. Woosh. What THE?!

      Hee hee.

    • Jim (Watsonville)

      The guy I storm chase with calls the GFS the goofus model…looks like it’s living up to that nickname

    • Telegraph Hill

      It showed this a couple of weeks ago. Only spot on the globe.

    • Tuolumne

      I donut like where that hole is.

    • Uncle Jesse

      Chemtrailer bait

    • GR

      I think what’s needed is a five year old with a crayon.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      It’s better to see this in early October than November-April. *sigh* So much for an early rainy season. Long live the boring high pressure dominance. 🙁

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It’s pretty common to be dry during this period, as offshore winds are quite common for this time of year in Norcal, and increasingly so in Socal as we approach mid October. I would be worried if this forecast were in the heart of winter, though.

    • jstrahl

      Someone might guess this is the early part of October. 🙂

    • jstrahl

      The 00Z brings precipitation by hour 384 into NorCal, healthy amounts on the north coast, something right into the Bay Area.
      https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2017092300&fh=384

    • Fairweathercactus

      Cactus put up a wall just like the old days.

    • alanstorm

      ?? Someone at NOAA spilled coffee on their keyboard

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Just throwing this image up here to show what’s out there in the Pacific right now. In a few weeks/month, systems like this will be knockin’ on our door.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb907b8a6f29349a767a6726a9dea53aef8eeb1ed7cda293392b2643b9c45a9d.jpg

  • Nathan
    • Bombillo1

      Nathan, this is when you go diving! No bad days, you either surf or dive.

      • Nathan

        I wish!

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Not alive in 63′ but been surfing since 85′ and I will admit, this has been the worst 4 month span of surf in my life, hands down, the worst…If and when fall swell kicks into gear, it’s going to be a zoo in the water.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            What has been the cause for the lack of high surf this summer? Is it just that the eastern Pacific tropical systems haven’t been in the right spot, or has it been a lack of Southern Hemisphere energy?

          • BRP (Ventura)

            Both! The tropics just never produced this summer. All of the hurricanes in the eastern Pacific spun up and never got on a northerly track, they all just booked it west, out into the open ocean. The southern hemi’s rarely made it north of 35° thus no energy up here in CA. Just a lackluster spring and summer. Really looking forward to winter swell!

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Then the Atlantic stole the show over the last month in huge fashion, with a lot of destruction, unfortunately.

          • max

            Yup. Very small summer . Good spring, tho..May is often the best for deep So. Hemis, with summer getting more swell from tropical systems. But, not always, as they say.. ridden 10’Baja in mid October, So. Hemi.

    • alanstorm
      • BRP (Ventura)

        Nope, that’s a right breaking wave, and from the looks of the pictures, these were tsunami waves?!?! No one is surfing those, those only brought death and destruction!

        • alanstorm

          Ok I get it.
          Believe it or not these were personal snap shots I bought from a street vendor in the town of Ao Nang in Southern Thailand, 2005.
          Picture was nearby Rilay Beach (popular rock climber Mecca) as surf sucked out & left the long boats high & dry.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    This is beyond me, but I thought it would interest our scientists on WW. Take a stab, is this a game changer? Or just another window that has opened, that gives us a glimpse beyond what we know – ?

    https://twitter.com/i/moments/913119721716879360

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/003b900e35bc14b71aa48397e393f2efbbe96e113f995820e6820c44d6299512.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3df2211705600614ddb7d5607a356f168a0e57033bead4c08013b8f7ce363d9.jpg

    • This is the 4th time it’s been observed. We can’t see a black hole. These instruments try to narrow that down. I think it’s within 60 degrees, which is still a very very big area when looking in the sky. The moon is about 1/2 a degree. What do you mean by game changer?

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)
  • inclinejj

    49.7 degrees this morning. Was surprised at sunrise the fog was not present. Then by 8 am the thick low fog bank moved in.

  • Jason

    In possibly the hottest month San Francisco has ever experienced, the fog has finally returned. Long live the onshore flow!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/35bfe24d8140f24280a1da93ae528e7bf4e18e4403fe88c592eeed4553ec42be.jpg

    • Telegraph Hill

      This is the least foggy summer I have ever observed here.

    • jstrahl

      Sure is pretty!

  • Thor

    In light of the fairly quiet weather pattern across the West currently, thought I would share some pics from my trip earlier this week to the Beartooth Mts of SW MT. Stayed at a working cattle ranch and had unfettered access to their
    12,000 acres…the only instruction was to close the gate behind you.

    The cool, rainy/snowy pattern that was dominant for the previous 10days
    finally began to move on and the sun made an appearance and temps
    climbed to near 60.

    They had 2 miles of a great trout stream and miles of trails…I also
    found out that water bottle holders make handy bear spray holders as
    well. I didnt get to find out if bear spray works on cats.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e161ed7be578f94b7ed1f002c8d17c85dfe14411871080bfed4863545bc1a866.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/20feeb33c73ec3eed3e8fd7ad59ced1c6b05abe3d2822e447a9a1058bddbe153.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aed99b52808fd5ae0f94efd2b399d202cbcf1734ad05a581859fc9c33240747a.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88cecf8983bbf8f8fe0c9f9bcf4c323086134a312119509f445bcabb747cd8c2.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5e62071934e9f3ccd458c8a8817416d6687ced75b8ef6856ebf2125d207e4fae.jpg

    • Charlie B

      Did you stay in that cabin?

      • Thor

        I did not. It wasnt quite habitable in its current state. I would have gladly stayed there for days but as it was we just spent the day there. Its on the other side of the ranch but took 45 minutes to drive there…and about an 1.5hrs to bike back up and over a ridge and down the other side which is where the pic of the plains came from. It was on the West Rosebud river.

    • Nice fork! I’m not adept at wheel size. But I’m going to take a stab by your head tube shape and guess ‘retro’ 26″.

      • Thor

        LOL. So very retro with my skinny, tiny wheels. The bike is about 10yrs old- bought in Folsom. I see these guys cruising around town with their giant wheels and super fat tires…and as I pushed my bike up past stretches of super slick gumbo-esque mud, I had an epiphany 🙂

    • Bombillo1

      Uh, that looks like a Mt. Lion track? Either that or a guy on a pogo stick with turrets syndrome.

      • Thor

        That was my interpretation at the time. Kept my head on a swivel as I did the granny grind for 45 minutes.

  • AlTahoe

    Wow Reno smashed their water year record. 2016-2017 15.95″
    the old record was 1982-1983 at 12.72″
    average is 7.4″ with 124 years of record keeping.

    • More noteworthy (IMO) that it’s on the ‘other side’ of the Sierra and
      breaking a record that was attained during the 1982-83 Super duper SEN.
      WOW. Do you have 1997-98 and 2010-11 amounts handy?

      • AlTahoe

        No I don’t have totals for those years but they would have had to been below 12″ as the top five years were all 12.0″ and higher. Neither of those years made the top 5.

        • AlTahoe

          I am a dumb dumb and looked right over 1997-1998 in the graphic that Nws reno posted. That year was 4th place with 12.48″

    • Charlie B

      I have a creek behind my house that has been flowing constantly since the first big storm of last year in October. It is music to sleep by.

  • CHeden

    Aside from a ‘maverik” tropical system, the GFS is holding tight on strong H.P. anchored over California with little sign of degradation in the northern ridge for the next 2-3 weeks.
    Here is the last precip totals per the last 4 runs (24 hrs) of the GFS. The latest run is first, then progresses back in time. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/860836137b3200472ea5ab641bec8ee73b139108e1bac9ce97177e685e2da04f.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bdd328a7149aeeae2f3b5b69a6ccbf7b338c0b11a15d7738dd79f5968935ac4.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7d6e9f684d1b51e2160c27cd2c7221cde965646bc15ffc26915e2c41b926f89.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b7dea48e60da60a6167337d323dabc2b206e66b835d783f44e73ee6959fca96.gif

    • molbiol

      Actually the HP center is well offshore with NW flow over Northern and Central CA as a parade of dry troughs move through the region. Across Socal the flow is NW with high heights ahead of the troughs with NE Santa Ana type pattern behind the troughs. Typical fall weather. Later into October, the troughs will become increasingly deeper with lower heights and precipitation across NorCal.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        NW flow is typical for this time of year just as you have said. An inside slider pattern that will probably lead to a few Santa Ana wind events.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Good factual summary of the reality of the situation…I wish the main stream media reported in your fashion.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It’s unfortunately very easy to see California in these charts. Just look for the hole.

    • Charlie B

      Al’s donut hole, it appears.

    • It’s always a striking graphic, but still not too unusual for the beginning of October in CA.

    • You may already know that the ‘wicked years’ of 2011-12 to 2014-2015, NorCal had a small, but not unremarkable +precip anomaly for Sept-Oct.

    • weathergeek100

      I’m not concerned yet. Give me similar graphics in December and then we’ll talk. First true rain in Eureka usually by mid-October and it’s aaaalmost there. The rest of CA, late Oct-early Nov is more normal.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        I’m afraid your wrong about late October early November, first rain should be early October

        • It depends on what part of CA one is referring to. First rainfall mid-October to Halloween is what I remember growing up in San Jose.

          • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

            Thought San Jose already got its first rain of the season during that 9-11 thunderstorm?

          • LOL

    • Bartshe

      Winters we all know and love are coming back.

    • Craig Matthews

      I see potential for repeated development of cut off Lows somewhere over or just off the central West Coast in this pattern depicted above throughout the next few weeks. Probably just me but that’s what I’m seein’.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Last day of this heat wave, hopefully. Looking forward to the tail end of the 7-day forecast. 69 on Wednesday. Is this real life?

    • thlnk3r

      This weather is far from being considered “heatwave”. I would say this is more typical for the end of September. Last September, So Cal (Inland Empire) had a few 100’s.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        It has only been in the mid-upper 80’s here in Orange the last 3 days or so, which is quite typical for the end of September. Sometimes we have heatwaves this time of year in which inland Orange County can be over 100 degrees, but are usually shorter lived than those earlier in the month. Even on Monday with the Canyon Fire raging out of control, it was only in the upper 80’s to very low 90’s here.

        • redlands

          Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca can get up to 110 in October — — up to 100 as late as Oct-20-21 – give or take — So the heat isn’t over yet — still got some time to do some more 100 and above days

  • Agung has a steam cloud over it now. I guess a steam cloud means something more than a cloud.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Something like Magma getting close to the surface?

  • Nate
  • max

    John Curtis. Fog hit us heavy at Ventura Harbor this morning. Couldn’t see the breakwater from the fuel dock…extrapolations?

  • inclinejj

    79.4 in Pacifica for the high. 69.4 now. 61% humidity and barometer at 29.75. 3:43 pm.

      • Bombillo1

        El Capitan is being reduced to a Buck Private. Brutal.

        • Rainmaker (San Jose)

          Saving Private boulder

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Woah more, must be because of all the rain then to brutally hot and dry just eroding the crap out of parts of El Capitan and also just making it really unstable with the expanding and contracting of cold and hot temperatures along with ton of rain

  • Thunderstorm

    Hope nobody has been killed. More collapses likely?

  • jstrahl

    Highs the last few days: 90 on Tuesday, 86 yesterday, 79 today.

    • Bombillo1

      The trend is your friend. You’ll be needing a down jumpsuit by next Tuesday.

      • jstrahl

        Or so we hope

  • Eddie Garcia

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18d1f741fe52d0e00c2463c6a6346fde785522aa181405501f296013d0026cac.jpg This photo taken in march of 2015 is interesting to me because it shows a distinct sharp line from green in the northern central valley to dry brown looking hills in the southern part of the valley. which is not always the case because this winter green was everywhere because of a wet year.

    • matthew

      Drying out from south to north?

      • Tuolumne

        That winter there was a lot more rain to the north, and drought eased in the north state.

  • Overhead view of Oroville spillway. Sorry for the low rez. There’s still a HUGE hole to fill. Yes that’s a cutoff wall on the upper spillway. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e63c4849e41573aad699bdafcc72e2a31542fd843cf196e8d3f6db3ccd04cac1.jpg

    • mogden

      They post some nice videos of the efforts.

      • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

        Wow!! Nice video!?? Love to see the time lapse of the work and happy to see our tax paying dollars hard at work like that on important California infrastructure.. we still have some catching up to do with Japan nothing of Japanese infrastructure magnitude, but great to see nonetheless! Normally a California infrastructure problem looks something like this: pothole in the road, takes 3 years to repair with a $5 a week budget lol ? jk jk

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      The sheer size of the project is awesome, looks like hot wheels cars on the sidewalk as viewed several stories up.

    • Harpo (Chico)

      At a recent press conference, Kiewit, the spillway contractor, said that they’re adding about two vertical feet of concrete per day to the slab at the bottom of the photo. It looks to me like they have at least sixty vertical feet to go to make the upper and lower ends connect. After they get the concrete in they need to apply a hardening treatment and whatever finishing work it needs to get all the bits and pieces to hold together under 100K cfs of water. There are 33 days until Nov. 1, the date when it’s supposed to be ready for use. That’s cutting it close.

      The good news is that the lake should be a couple hundred feet below capacity by then. It’ll take a lot of rain this winter before they’ll need to use the spillway.

      I’m sure it will all be fine as long as nothing else goes wrong. [snort]

  • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

    00 GFS has a treat in fantasyland: given that it’s more than 2 weeks from now, chances of it coming to fruition are close to zero but enjoy for entertainment anyway.

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Yea the NPAC is a hot mess.. given the developing La Niña I would expect that to put a damper on the jet stream for sure and sap energy from it, but that doesn’t mean a high amplitude pattern could develop with a high amplitude aleutian ridge far enough west to send storms downstream towards the west coast with big GOA troughs.. the MJO is absolutely dead in the water hopefully it picks up and becomes more active during the heart of winter and the big La Niña powred NPAC ridge can be far enough west to send storms barreling into CA! ? This is what I predict to happen this winter.. a colder and somewhat drier winter with not many rainy days, but big high amplitude storms with lots of rain and snow to make up for the lesser amount of dry days in CA with slightly above average precip in central and Southern California and much higher in the north.. and lots and lots of snow with some low elevation events!

      • jstrahl

        Thanks, but i think you meant this, no?
        “that doesn’t mean a high amplitude pattern [“could not” instead of “could”] develop with a high amplitude aleutian ridge far enough west to send storms downstream towards the west coast with big GOA troughs.

      • alanstorm

        It just seems like there’s too much moisture out there as of late with the record heat & all.
        If we don’t get stuck in those dreaded mid-winter Omega blocks (flaccid jet), i think wet storms a plenty for NorCal.

    • Good luck with that one happening. Lol!!!

  • Thunderstorm

    So whats really going on in Puerto Rico? The space satellites know and probably some drones do to. So whats the problem, probably something as simple as getting papers signed.

    • Tuolumne

      I really, really doubt it’s merely a matter of signing papers.

      Once a disaster gets beyond a certain level of destruction, you’re at a whole different level of difficulty and challenge. When roads and water and power and phones and sanitation and a bunch of other stuff are all out of service at the same time and over a very large area, the problems compound off each other and can snowball into a slow-motion ongoing disaster that actually kills more people than the original event.

      There was actually a fast response by the military, arranged in advance of the hurricane, but I get the impression that the scale was off by a factor of easily 10x-50x from what was needed. This is where the relevant agencies (FEMA and others) need to constantly re-assess the situation (hour by hour) and be ready to tell higher-ups (White House) that resources committed to the effort need to be multiplied greatly on very short notice.

      Later on we’ll get a much better picture of what happened early on, and what could have been done much better vs. what was inherent in the situation. Disasters on this scale greatly stretch emergency response capabilities, and are the sort where having both top-notch people in critical agency positions and having very competent officials in the White House riding herd on everyone will make a huge difference. Still, given the fact that the entire island is a real disaster area, even a best-case response would have felt slow to many residents.

      That said, I’m not defending the response effort. This situation should have been the number one focus of the president and his high-level staff over the past 10 days. They should have been constantly assessing progress and whether they needed to scale up relief efforts massively.

      This disaster can also be thought of an advance warning of what we can expect in California from either of the following events:

      -Magnitude-8 earthquake on the southern San Andreas Fault from the Coachella Valley to Carizzo Plain.
      -ARKStorm-type event

      Either of these would leave large areas of the state badly damaged in all respects, especially the ARKStorm where flooding would massively cut off transportation of supplies for weeks.

      • Jim (Watsonville)

        Very well said…add Texas and Florida and resources can get stretched pretty thin…not to mention you can’t just drive there from here

        • Tuolumne

          Our military has loads of ships and emergency supplies, massive heavy-lift capability, experts in clearing ports and airfields, and tens of thousands of troops and sailors stationed close enough to get there very quickly. Put the right people and equipment on the job and they can move mountains on short notice. That’s part of their job when they need to fight a war, which means they always have that capability on hand to help out in a disaster.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Last three paragraphs are exactly what I was telling people since Harvey hit Houston/Galveston. & pretty sure this admin isn’t much of a fan of California ?. However I’ll keep my assumptions to myself and I agree wholeheartedly with your take.

        • max

          Have friends from Hawaii heading up Red Cross shelters in both Dallas (10000) beds, and Florida ( 1200). They are just winding up. Resources were stretched thin when Irma hit after Harvey, then Puerto Rico. I was told that, Since it is a Territory, it does not have the same infrastructure in place for supplies and relief efforts, and has not been in this type of a situation , disaster wise, in a long time, if ever, and not prepared. As mentioned, it is cut off as a land mass with land routes, trucks and rail not being available, airports and shipping were severely compromised. Trump revoked the Jones Act?, but not sure of the politics internationally of this move. Anyone care to fill me in? Thanks.

  • ben

    Lets go to Mars!

    • Tuolumne

      They do make some decent candy bars.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        In that case, let’s go to 7-11!!

  • DayHoe Herald
    • BRP (Ventura)

      Why the air route over Greenland? Did you actually spend time in Greenland or just flying home from Europe? Awesome shots and made me shiver just looking at them! Thanks.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        The near polar route. Flew home from Copenhagen in August of ’04, and we flew over Greenland on the way to Seattle. Spectacular!

      • Tuolumne

        Flying over Greenland is pretty standard if you’re going from the west coast to most of Europe. It’s the most direct route.

        What was interesting on one flight we took in June was seeing the sun never set the entire time, even though we arrived in Europe the next day. The sun was shining over the north end of the earth during the entire ‘night’. That’s the longest period of daylight I’ve experienced in my life.

        In the old days you were requested to lower your window shade (which meant missing Greenland) so that others could watch the in-flight movie which needed a darkened cabin. Normally I’d side with the much larger number of people in a matter of etiquette. However, in this case it was massively frustrating to mostly miss a highlight-of-your-entire-life view of fjords, icebergs, and glaciers for a forgettable movie (which they typically were).

        I sneaked peeks though a crack I left open, and the glimpses I did get were absolutely amazing. I need to get back there one of these days on a lower-elevation flight in clear weather and get a really good look, before I die or end up in a nursing home.

  • AlTahoe
  • Thunderstorm

    Low pressure to form near Florida this weekend then cross the state into the gulf next week.

    Looking at the Oroville work seems to me that that red rock area should have been worked on first rather then last. All concrete needs time to cure. The blue rock farther down the spillway is much more durable. When they built the Dumbarton Bridge close to where I live the concrete was covered with rugs for 6 months to harden to full strength.

    Cruise ships taking the lead in Puerto Rico. Very smart.

    Still think that winter comes early and cold. Do we get a warm AR on a huge snow pack?

    • Robin White

      If by red rock you mean the chasm cut by the failure, they are filling that with leveling concrete, with roller-compacted concrete and a non-structural concrete topping. It’s temporary. Next year (if it’s still there) they will come back and rock bolt slabs of structural concrete as the finished surface. The goal is to have a surface able to stand up to 100,000 CFS (way below the spillway’s ultimate design capacity) by November 1st. Don’t know if they’ll make it, but they should be pretty close.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Temperatures have been warmer then forecasted the past 3 days.

  • Nathan

    SD forecast for next 10 days: highs ranging from 73-76 and lows ranging from 62-65. We are really testing the limits of extreme weather here. As in extreme boredom.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Beats hurricanes or tornadoes….

      • Nathan

        no disagreement there.

  • Charlie B

    Surprisingly, not all parts of California have experienced above normal temps this month. Arcata is so far +4.4, SFO + 5.7 and Monterey + 6.2. Everyplace I could quickly locate outside of the southern deserts have been above average (usually in the +2 to +3 range (Fresno is +.8). Interestingly, in the southern deserts Bishop is -.8, Palm Springs -1.0, Barstow is -1.6. Nearby Las Vegas is -.9 and Kingman -2.7. Yuma and Phoenix were below average as well. Those places were still hot, of course, but just slightly less hot than historical average.

    • AlTahoe

      South lake Tahoe average high was -3.3F for Sept. Average low was +2.4F so -.9F for the month

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Seems to me the coast has been unusually warm this September. Here in the valley only part of September have we been above normal. The 2nd part of September we had a stretch of below to well below normal temps. I don’t think it was above normal here overall. Interesting when I heard daytime temps in Berkeley the other day were about a degree lower than ours. That is pretty unusual in September

    • Craig Matthews

      Active desert SW monsoon likely the reason for below ave temps in those areas earlier in the month.

  • SBMWill

    . Rainy Oregon days make me dream of sunny SoCal. Miss you guys. Be careful what you wish for I guess.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Nathan

      Between Umunhum and SJ is what, 15 air miles? And ~60″ delta? Amazing.

      • Nate

        More than that, amazingly. The Santa Clara Valley Water District has a station up there that measured ~103″ this year–so ~84″ over a distance of about 13 miles!

    • Tuolumne

      You can see how Bombillo-land (lower Pit River mountains northeast of Redding) basically got drowned with precipitation. But there’s also an amazing drop from 120’+ down to around 30″-40″ around Burney as you move farther east in the Pit River drainage.

    • Craig Matthews

      Interesting how it appears Sonoma Co. esp Sebastopol area got real hammered while areas just to the north, over southern Mendocino Co didn’t get as much. Am wondering if this is due to a topographical effect, or repeated stalling of ARs in the same place over the north bay this past glorious winter. Maybe a bit a both.. Cool chart, thanks.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I have been thinking about these graphics all day. Super sweet stuff.

  • tomocean

    A baby trough coming through makes for some light overcast and definitely cooler today here in Auburn. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/189c90468e956842e1bc07ad20ea4505265a897bfc5e1f7bc5d0174508f26482.jpg
    Another sign of autumn: migrating turkey vultures, headed to Central and South America.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/499d29cd689c194fabb283625197f5841e01a0bdf677785838185559ba3563d5.jpg

    • malnino

      Haha, I can assure you, a lot of them stop in SoCal and decide they’ve gone far enough .. soon, the leaves will begin to fall and the eucalyptus trees will be full of these big boys!

    • annette johnson

      Been seeing quite a few of them along the lake here in Havasu.

  • Craig Matthews

    Here’s an interesting link full of very interesting research reads… https://usclivar.org/

    • molbiol

      Thanks. That article describing the relationship between the Global Warming, ENSO, and the Hadley cell is quite interesting. It would seem that increasing ENSO events stemming from climate change may actually result in a pause in Hadley cell expansions; however climate change, independent of ENSO, promotes Hadley cell expansion. I’m looking now for any studies linking variability in the Hadley cell to California precipitation patterns…

  • Thunderstorm

    NWS has the winds increasing this weekend, believe they will be increased again and include the desert areas and Tahoe areas also. The linear clouds usually means the winds are coming with no difference in the time of the day, could be strongest at any time.

  • CHeden

    To update my recent string of ????? about the GFS, the last day is no help. Note that the tropical system that’s been showing up for days now is still in the mix…just when and where is still very much up in the air.
    The Gulf of Mexico will be interesting to watch late in the MR. The Gulf by then will be in a large generalized area of lower pressure……and to it’s south, a renewed westerly push of energy within the ITZ will be pushing over southern Mexico/Cent America. This wave, as it hits the Pacific, looks like it wants to spark up several storms off the coast before getting pulled NNE. So, it looks like a case of something happening sometime and moving somewhere.
    Just a few minor details left to be ironed out.
    Stay tuned.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44ce08321bed930bab96ba87325950c50c9a87a96d332951efbede6b2e591a10.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9ce20f5fb42df82f6bf4447e113340cad651e1473aaaa376933772abd28fe89.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0f37934954bd62a811d5c6b1d03366e67065b5a61e6cdac499d0c395615be5ee.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3292c3c9d40ff4e5226eec2bb12f70ea8d8a89209e22ea9b160f66e5dd270e4f.gif

  • Thunderstorm

    The king of the skies in Australia is the wedge-tailed eagle with a 8ft wing span. Drones are no match and the eagles are protected. Awesome read. $80,000 drones no match for the eagles!

  • Nate

    I posted this back in March, so here’s an updated version of the CNRFC Water Year totals for the Santa Clara Valley. This is only CNRFC gauge data, but it’s still easy to see how extreme the rain shadow is.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b74421de73b315924fe424ef4bee66595cf360709c7754694f8b35c53b66bc4.jpg

    • Did you create this image? If so, may I use it in public presentation? 🙂

      • Nate

        Yes, feel free to use it! I have a higher-resolution version too, if you’d like it.

        • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

          Wow I am impressed!! I sent this to a friend!! Thanks for this! Amazing illustration of rain shadows in CA and an excellent example of CA micro-climates!

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      This is great. Never realized how my area, Evergreen, is much wetterr than downtown. 8in more of rain.

    • Bombillo1

      Nice work Nate. Easy to see the orographics at work, all you have to do is transpose it to your favorite landscape /valley setting (factoring in prevailing winds and storm directions etc.)

    • jstrahl

      The Mt Umunhum total is incredible, almost at levels of Olympic Mountains west slopes.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I have about what Cow Ridge has for the WY which somehow ends in September

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Can you link where u found these totals?

  • AntiochWx

    I’m not liking the persistency of the Pacific high. I know its quite early to tell if this will continue throughout the early winter, but I do hope it begins to loosens its grip. It swells, flatens and redevelopes non stop.

    • Chris

      It was more persistent last year if you remember.
      It was hot all the way till fleet week and then Boom ?
      It rained like crazy.

      • AntiochWx

        Wasn’t necessarily talking about heat wise, just the ridging over the pacific seems entrenched. As long as its placed there, going to be difficult to get a long term rainy pattern, unless inside slider.

        • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

          Yeah, but ridging in the right places (particularly around the Aleutian Islands) can be beneficial to CA and bring rounds of storms barreling downstream towards the west coast and California if the placement of the NPAC ridge is far enough west..

          take last year as a example; the ridge was always there it was just in a favorable position to send storms our way and was placed near the Aleutian Islands above Hawaii similar to its current location.. there’s just not enough energy in the Jet right now and it’s way too early in the season for significant storms to develop and make their way to California unless some kind of outside source of energy gets injected into the jet like a west Pacific cyclone that gets caught in the westerlies and makes its way towards our neck of the woods or something..

          if the big ridge was sitting up in the GOA persistently and not near the Aleutians and it was late October going into novmember with a still stagnant pattern and no signs of the MJO making even the slightest bit of comeback going into November and a RRR like ridge just sitting in one spot and not moving even in the models, then even I would start to get worried.. we still have lots of time before we really know what’s gonna happen this winter or begin to guess IMO..

          • jstrahl

            Are you saying there will be a sudden lurch point between slightly above average and much above average zones? Just trying to fine tune it, man. 🙂 Great point about the ridge. I remember people freaking out at seeing Hs on the forecast maps last year, without regard to WHERE they were set up, as if they wanted no high pressure anywhere.

          • AntiochWx

            Not saying it won’t go away by winter, just that seeing such a strong HP in the west Pacific is not a good sign, although it is still early. There is going to be a HP somewhere, just the location as of now is not in an ideal location, we need it to further west.

          • jstrahl

            It is VERY early, not even October. 🙂

          • AntiochWx

            I realise that, but would still feel more comfortable if we could see it move. Heading into a boardline La Nina and seeing a western Pacific based HP not moving doesn’t give me good vibes for greater than average rainfall.

          • jstrahl

            Again, when would you expect to see it move? It didn’t move anywhere this early last year. Most wet years i remember did not involve heavy rain till at least late October. Hey, 1977-78 had an October with a perfect 0.00.

          • AntiochWx

            I would at least like to see some signs of breaking down and progressing through the atmospheric stream, not stagnating and redeveloping. At this point I’m not judging the pattern based on when heavy rain starts, I just want to see some movement and weakening, and I haven’t seen any signs of that. The heights in the western Pacific are anomalously high, even for this time of year.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            This is usually a pretty dry time of the year for much of CA, anyway. We are just now getting into offshore wind season for Norcal, which will be spreading into Socal as we progress further into October. We may get a cutoff low or two or an early season cold front later in the month, that could bring some precip to areas of the state.

          • AntiochWx

            I get that this time of the year is normally dry, all I’m stating is keep an eye on the ridge. I will be watching it thoroughly this year, I want to start some case studies regarding the persistence and its locations.

          • GR

            That early mountain snow should bring you some comfort.

          • AntiochWx

            Not really, I’m expecting a lot of inside sliders this year, mountains should do ok this year, others not so much.

          • jstrahl

            Have you looked at pressure maps from this time in say ’77? Or ’82? Or’16 for that matter, in regards to ridge persistence and motion?

          • AntiochWx

            Not yet, I haven’t had much time lately to do some weather research. It’s on my free time to do list! I want to start getting to the bottom of what is typical and what is anomalous when it comes to HP persistency.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Would be curious to see the hp setup on October 1st the last ten winter that had above avg precipitation in the bay area.

          • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

            Yes yes true.. where there is high pressure there is sure to be low pressure downstream OR upstream of the area of high pressure! Can’t have the low pressure without the high! My thinking is because of the developing LA Nina there will be stronger/higher amplitude ridging it’s just a matter of WHERE that ridging sets up and which region it persists over.. it near the aleutians and above Hawaii that can prove beneficial to us here in CA and it there IS high amplitude ridging with correct placement it can make for some pretty deep troughs in the GOA and pull down some ananamously cold air down from the North as well and we all know what happens when the GOA troughs gets deep enough: it’s able to pull up tropical moisture from the south in the form of AR’s at times especially if the timing is right and the MJO happens to be active. I think the precip line will be around SLO for the most part with the bigger storks dipping down the coast and drenching SoCal at times too hence the slightly above average precip in the south and the much above north of SF.. these are just my thoughts..

          • jstrahl

            “the bigger storks dipping down the coast and drenching SoCal at times too ”
            What kind of drenching by the storks? You mean lots of babies? Or waste products? 🙂 Sorry, impossible to resist.

            Thanks. Yes, there were people who said they were looking forward to a map with only lows on it, unclear on the concept.

            Sio, slightly above south of SLO, significantly above SLO to SFO, and much above SF, is your thought, correct?

          • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

            Hahahha my bad yeah “auto-correct” should be called “auto-incorrect” because it always spells words I’m trying to spell wrongly.. I have to correct words myself that I’m trying to spell it auto incorrect for me into wrong ones all the time.. I mineaswell just deactivate it at this point.. yes that is my thinking I believe SoCal will be at average or slightly above average in precip and much higher in snowfall as the whole state will be high in snowfall. Much above average birth of SF and from SLO to SF is kinda the question mark? ? But I’m thinking that the whole state will get to see some really Big great storms ? this season!

          • jstrahl

            One would think the SLO to SF would show some gradation, increasing northward. We shall see.

            BTW, k and m are pretty close together on the keyboard. Easy for fingers to scramble, but if we depend on auto-correct, we tend to not edit carefully, and this feature indeed totally misses words which may be correctly spelled but not the words you intended, and when we look and don’t see red underlining we just skip ahead.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Ridging north of Hawaii is usually beneficial to CA in bringing a wet pattern. I have seen that pattern even before the severe drought years of the 2010s.

        • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

          This is typical this time of year.

        • Bombillo1

          Include me in the not liking our glide path camp.

          • DayHoe Herald

            Agree — last year was more dynamic in ‘troughiness’ in late summer — CHeden called this out early (August and September if I remember correctly) and suggested it would persist despite the dry predictions of others for NDJ — I’m a newcomer to the California weather scene, but it does feel like this stale pattern has been settling in on top of us during the past few months

          • CHeden

            Thanks fer remembering! The pattern at the time was showing no signs of significant changes as the major “players” started locking into place with the jet starting to carve out a 10-lane freeway coast to coast (Asia to NA).
            As you also know, I am a keen fan of persistence..and in this case it served well as a solid “indicator” for many of the events we saw up until late January…i.e. California got hit repeatedly with the same basic (repeating/persistent) jet-stream setup, with intensity of the AR’s gradually gaining in strength over time.
            So, even though it was still late Summer, we were eyeing typhoons/remnants like Songda that were getting channeled by the jet towards monster lows/bombs in the NE Pac.
            When you see stuff like that in Oct., that’s no freak event. It took a long time for the generic pattern to remain relatively constant in order for everything to come together the way it did.
            And, as it turned out, it just stayed that way for all of our “early” Winter….which almost nobody (me included) anticipated.
            What’s still amazing in hindsight was the longevity of it all, and how humongous the dominant/mean flows became. It’s like once the first AR’s started setting up in the far Pac NW in Sept., the steamroller was set in motion and it just got stronger and stronger as the season progressed.

          • Our Gimli Gliderpath

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Exactly. Last year most on here, except Tyler and John Curtis, had great fears that last winter was going to be a terrible drought year. I think some of the years during the terrible drought actually started okay and then everything just shut off. So it may be too early to draw any conclusions.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          2012-13 was a good example of things starting out good in Norcal, only to shut off as January began. 2014-15 had a fairly wet December, followed by a dry January as well.

        • CHeden

          As I recall, last year many (including me) on WW were calling for a “normal” winter…based mostly on the persistence of troughiness off the west coast….a basic pattern that pretty much held up until the rains shut down in late January. What we missed was the depth/strength of the jet stream and subsequent AR’s that set up.

        • Chris

          Very early to draw conclusions.
          Plus many years are split in half. Dry first part then wet and vice versa.
          Typical la Nina’s do have a wet fall and early winter then dry up some.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      It is too early to tell since it’s the end of September. The ridge will weaken some in weeks ahead.

    • Shane Ritter

      Looking recent model runs, I’m seeing decent progression and break down of the main EPAC HP. It is consistently reforming tho north of Hawaii, just under the Aluetians. Historically, this has produced a lot of good, cold winters for the west. The key will be how far East it sets up. If the center is East of Hawaii, we might be in for cold and drier. If it’s directly above or just slightly west, we are in for a cold and wet winter.

      • Thunderstorm

        Cold for sure and earlier then normal. Migratory birds continue to increase in the wetland areas near where I live. And the Painted Lady butterflies are arriving very early for the huge Eucalyptus grove in Ardenwood Park. They over winter there along with the Monarchs every year.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          Have any studies been done to determine how animals can predict when they should head south?

  • cthenn
  • Shane Ritter

    I spent the morning looking at monthly historical 500mb height anomalies since the early 80s, instead of doing actually work.

    Here’s what I learned. We want HP to be centered over the Aluetians, or a bit south. That produces some great winters. We don’t want HP in the GOA or near the west coast.

    I think this winter will be like the 05-06′ height pattern. Which was a 125% winter for the central sierra. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cb43aadf459d8c857266271362ad9915c0fed68fa1db055e86f77ea24cb6c7a1.png
    Here is last winters pattern https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4be334756bda2ca90c7bddfdef0a23ab6b985867e729817d6b6ba2201c465cc1.png
    And finally the worst part of the drought, 2015 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4866528e6501d51b66723735241088e28317f9f12a614be53863d83758217709.png

    • Darin

      You were doing actual work and it’s much appreciated.

      • Shane Ritter

        Well, I was supposed to be running my restaurant, but I decided my employees were fine, while I fiddled with old weather maps!

        • Charlie B

          I’d love to know what restaurant

          • Shane Ritter

            The Daily Bagel, it’s off wells and 6th.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      A high over the Aleutians or a bit south (north of HI) is ideal for bringing stormy weather into CA.

    • jstrahl

      Thanks for the work! ’05-6 was a great year, at least in the Sierras as well as the Bay Area.

    • DayHoe Herald

      Man that 2015 view is ugly — thanks for dredging those up — very interesting and hoping you are right with your prognostication

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Saw a really interesting article a couple days ago on how California faces a threat of much fiercer storms (we all know this). What caught my attention and got me excited Because it was new information I had not heard about was a group of scientists in SoCal who will be partnering with Sonoma County to publish 2-3 week AR outlooks as soon as this winter. The other piece of very cool information is that Marty Ralph, ( one of the best experts out there on AR’s) director of the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes at UC San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanology will soon be rating AR’s intensity on a Scale from 1-5 just like hurricanes! Test runs of this scale were made last year and there was just one Category 5, can you guess when it was?

    • jstrahl

      Sorry, not fully getting this, “Also something else that was mentioned was that this ARKstorm is what is going to be the “Big One” and what will kill thousands of people and will be worse than Harvey, Maria and Jose.” Which storm is “this”?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        A storm that was similar to 1861 is what I’m referring to

    • alanstorm

      That will be interesting to add to the WW winter storm mix!
      “Catagory 5 AR headed for California”
      Seems like ARs are getting a bad rap lately, considering we get dozens every winter & they provide most of the yearly precip for NorCal without catastrophe.
      Mind you, if it weren’t for the malfunctioning SPILLWAY, California came away relatively unscathed with an AR heavy record year.
      Since juicy ARs alone don’t make an ARK storm, they hopefully will be watching the ANGLE they come in & if they STALL or not.
      A relatively average AR stalled over an orographic wet dream like the Santa Cruz Mts can bring death & destruction(1982).
      A highly amplified pattern of Arctic outbreak, followed by subtropical AR (1862/1964 floods) would be needed for a true ARK storm, adding the cold polar injection to intensify downpours over frozen ground & snow to create an extreme runoff scenerio.
      I’m just saying it won’t be time to run for the hills everytime a monster AR aims itself at Ca.
      We need the rain!

  • Fairweathercactus

    90 degree day gets extended for another day here.

  • AntiochWx

    If I get time this week, I will try and post neutral to La Niña years vs mean ridge position for those years. Starting this year , I will be taking screen shots of pacific pattern daily and will be notating pressure strength trends,movement, duration, and location. I will loop my screen shots after rain season is done.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Thank you. Looking forward to see the data.

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Cool sounds good! Can’t wait to see your graphics! Thanks ^_^

  • Thunderstorm

    With the weather being warmer the palm trees in southern california are dying due to beetles and a fungus. Welcome to a warmer world.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Which species of palm are being affected by this? I am very much into plants, but I haven’t heard much about recent diseases affecting palm trees, although some broadleaf trees and conifers have been recently affected by diseases being spread by insects.

      • inclinejj

        The drought weakens the trees. The lack of cold weather or freezes doesn’t kill off The Beatles.

        • Pfirman

          There are only two Beatles left. Please don’t bring calumny upon them.

      • Thunderstorm

        Did some digging and there are 8 species of palm trees in southern California but could not find which ones were susceptible. The rats love these trees. I remember years ago watching a tree company trim them with a machine that circled the trunk getting rid of all the dead fronds on a street in San Jose. The rats just poured out and dropped 30 -40 feet to the ground, more then half lived and then they just hauled ass to the nearest house. Some big enough to scare a good size dog.

        • Pfirman

          Yeah, so-called royal palms in Long Beach were good examples of rat-perfect housing.

          • Tuolumne

            Who says rats can’t live like a king?

      • redlands

        Redlands has been having troubles with palm trees –

    • Tuolumne

      Most problems with invasive species are not caused by warming per se. However, warming is a “force multiplier” for when these invasions do happen. The more disrupted an ecosystem is, the more vulnerable it’ll be to further disruptions of other kinds.

      • Sfedblog

        Disruption, otherwise known as change.

        • Pfirman

          If I rip off your pants, if that a disruption or a change?

        • Tuolumne

          Deleted – Pfirman already covered it. Darned Disqus.

    • redlands

      I was wondering why i was seeing lots of palm trees in Redlands dying that are 50 to over 100 years old — thought it was because lack of rainfall and people not watering them. Lots of other trees are dying because people arent smart enough to water – trees that are in front of peoples houses – however are on city property. Redlands has to put signs out reminding people to water city trees

  • Fairweathercactus

    The 12Z is the most bland model run you may ever see in this lifetime for California.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Guess it all depends on what GFS run you look at. Over the last few days the LR showed a tropical system moving north off the Baja then west, another run would show it moving northeast over northern Baja and now the latest run shows zilch. Typical for this time of year.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      This is a bland time of the year anyway, as it is the transition season between summer and fall. It seems that some on here are expecting exciting weather changes just because we are turning the calendar to October, but the weather doesn’t always change right at this time.

      • Tuolumne

        This year we got our early October Sierra snowstorm in September instead.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          That’s true. That was definitely an early storm for this time of year.

      • redlands

        I forget the year — maybe 2010 — would have to check but Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca got 6-plus inches of rain for the month of October — was a real exciting month

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Average temps for Santa Maria this month: 80/56. That three-day heat wave earlier made an enormous difference.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    One of the most incredible photos I have ever seen
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b2512f197c7aeeb557bc58c736de4afd3d923b8ce4b9cb96b259918558d15b46.jpg Photo credit: Sandro Puncet.

    • At first I was like oh that’s pretty cool, wait, what…enhance…WHAT
      Bad day to go fishing that looks like Seapocalypse.

    • John

      So where was that taken? Am I missing that somewhere?

      • John
        • Pfirman

          Yeah, the Adriatic, off Croatia. Who knew they got stuff like that?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I would like to know as well. I also wonder if this is a real photo or some sort of a doctored up photo using more than one image or a Photoshop job with all the waterspouts that are shown here.

    • Craig Matthews

      This is just off the charts!!! Saw this one posted all over twitter. Rare site indeed.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    any one think its safe too say that 90s and 100s are done at lest in the foot hills and may be valley? area of N CA i think will still see some low 80s but nothing higher then that

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Not for us here in SoCal. The Santa Ana’s are a typical fall weather feature for us as we head into winter with offshore flow pushing temps into the 90’s and 100’s.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        But it’s a dry heat they said! It’s an odd feeling to be hot sitting in your car and immediately cold when you get out.

    • Fairweathercactus

      Not even close for So Cal. Last year last 90+ degree day was November 13th last year. Summer is just at the half way point here.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      That is what it looks like. Defintaley 100s,are done and odds improve gor no more 90s as we get into october

    • weathergeek100

      No. Southern California has October and November left. Lots of 90s on the way. Santa Ana season just started.

      • redlands

        Yes Redlands, Ca – Southern Ca can get up to 110 in Ocober

    • Patrick from Stockton

      Yes. I think it’s safe to say that for the areas you are mentioning

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Taz & Storm Master

    I hop this season I get too see some vary heavy snow fall in the Sonora CA area I like too see 2 too 3 feet of snow followed by a cold snap too keep the snow in place

    • weathergeek100

      The chances of that happening are getting lower and lower every year you know. You can blame humans for that.

      • Sfedblog

        Sure, take last year, for example.

  • matthew
    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Is that a fairway?

      • matthew

        Gray’s Crossing…back 9…forget which hole

  • Nate

    Here’s some CNRFC station data for water years 2010-2017. I charted the composition of the total number of stations for each percent category (<50%, 50-70%…) of average rainfall. 2017 clearly takes the cake! These are the same graphs, just with different color schemes.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/315296e36f98a44c3c90a65c6b49a419ae59368c90472ca167801efaa8b25df9.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/492a0f2168d496150464605492633eba05795f11ebe6f54c6788062f1940bda0.png

    • jstrahl

      Great job. Yes, the difference between this part WY and previous ones is striking.

  • jstrahl

    Oh well, the cooling trend in central Berkeley is over, at least for now, highs starting Tuesday the 26th, in order, were 90, 86, 79, 71, and then today 75.

  • “Right now NOAA is forecasting a weak La Nina this Winter, but some forecast models show a moderate La Nina event possible.” – Brian Allegreto
    http://files.opensnow.com/Tahoe/2017/October/nino34Sea(56).gif

  • AntiochWx
  • Thunderstorm

    The – talking the tropics – blog today mentions likely development in the Gulf or Caribbean area of a tropical storm in about 10 days. Conditions in October 2017 are identical to conditions in October 2005 which produced hurricane Wilma.

    • matthew

      GFS has been showing a Cuba/Florida hit for a couple days now.

    • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

      Season will likely exceed 2005 in ACE, number of storms, and damage costs.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Yeah. I think a CAG is setting up.

  • DayHoe Herald

    Can always tell it’s well into autumn in Yolo with the tomatoes on the roadsides near corners and the sunflowers drying in the fields awaiting harvest. We had a nice ‘brackish layer’ from the Delta that rode over Yolo today — here’s a shot looking east towards Sacramento across the causeway — will it fill this year?

    There’s also a shot for nature enthusiasts of a little creature Pfirmin and other locals will likely recognize. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a24c3fb155098534d72c851d0bdf7703da3287dcfc56b7e95255d5ffa6d600f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d5a802e1c5dfff06855c77868c9c06741fdb4d766c187d7695c771bc75f83e6.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e863a49bdfe0aea199fb76f34e3094fb12e1a513b57ae8543d581defe76881de.jpg

    • Nathan

      Burrowing Owl!

      • DayHoe Herald

        Yes indeed — cute little guys!

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Now that’s pretty wicked!

      • Pfirman

        Yeah, thanks Day Hoe. Sad that the first one I see in forever is in a photo, but at least I know they are still around. However, I was remarking to my wife on a bike ride the other day that I have seen not one Magpie this summer. Disconcerting. I think West Nile has hit them hard.

    • Tuolumne

      Filling up the Yolo Causeway with water could be a real problem for drivers on I-80. OTOH, filling up the Yolo Bypass with water would be great at the right time of the year. 😉

  • In case you wanted a stones-throw-away-view of Agungs soon to be agone crater
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-09-30/mount-agung-volcano-visited-by-men-social-media-video-shows/9004520

  • Craig Matthews

    Happy New Water Year Daniel and everyone on this most excellent WW blog!! Really hoping this winter be a dandy for everyone, from border to border on all sides,… east to west, and north to south(esp south)…, and on all sides of all the mountain ranges of this state. That is what I am hoping for at least. In the meantime, I think this October will feature some very unique type of set ups.

    • redlands

      My rain year starts July 1st …….

  • AntiochWx

    SFO is going to finish with less than 0.50″ for the month of October, I’m almost certain at this point. Winters that had precip in September and below 0.25″ for the month of October did not bode well for the WY in the Bay Area.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Not all the bay area got measurable rain. I had 0.00 in South San Jose.

      • AntiochWx

        I’m looking at the data from GGweather for SFO, months were SFO received 0.10″ or more in September followed by 0.25″ or less in October spelled bad news for total winter rainfall. Not sure if there is a strong correlation, but it looks like a good indicator.

        • Thunderstorm

          You have to look at the details. What direction did the rainfall come from. I remember when there was rainfall from the south with thunderstorms 2 days in a row in the morning. They were good rain producers, probably close to an inch total for both. NWS actual put out a flash flood watch but that never materialized. That year ended up being dry. Then there have been the el-nino years and one year it started raining in October and just kept going about every 3 days, another year storms developed off the coast and interfered with the World Series games in Oakland.

  • AntiochWx

    As excited as we were for that T-storm in September, it’s not good for winter precip totals, especially if accompanied by a relatively dry October. I will run the stats this week. SFO received 0.20″ in September, which paired with other years + dry October isn’t good.

    • tomocean

      Guess we’ll just have to wait and see what really happens. No point in wringing our hands on the first day of October.

      • AntiochWx

        I like to long range forecast, so I’m always looking for trends. Heading into a weak La Niña is already odds against us, but I’m still analyzing La Niña years that had a dry start and how they finished for the winter.

        • tomocean

          But you aren’t forecasting. You are guessing based upon what has happened in the past. It is pretty close to impossible to forecast what is going to happen in January and February based upon what has happened in years past. I think it’s a fun exercise to make guesses about what the weather might be this winter, but that’s pretty much all they are right now.

          • AntiochWx

            It is a type of forecasting called analog forecasting. Two types of forecasting. Forecast based on past statics and trends, and atmospheric dynamics forecasting.

          • tomocean

            It would seem to me that simply using analog forecasting by itself would be fairly inaccurate. Especially in light of our changed global climate.

          • Tuolumne

            Signal-to-noise-ratio in past data.

          • AntiochWx

            It’s an educated guess, using analogs/case studies, + current weather dynamics is the best we are going to get when it comes to forecasting medium to long range.

          • AntiochWx

            I generally don’t use it by itself, I blend it with atmospheric/ocean dynamics. I’m trying to incorporate individual pattern case studies, but that is going to take a lot of time and analysis.

          • You forgot persistence forecasting! 🙂

          • AntiochWx

            Can’t hurt around these parts, I guess that might fall under climo.

          • To many here it seems to be.

          • AntiochWx

            Or wishcasting 🙂

    • Chris

      I don’t count moisture coming from the south.
      I look at rains that come from the polar jet.
      That’s just me.

      • AntiochWx

        I’m just basing it off from statistical analysis, which I guess I shouldn’t put as much emphasis on compared to the individual seasons dynamics. Just going back and breaking down every seasons weather patterns is going over be a large project.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I remembered Santa Maria had a September thunderstorm in 1997 and look at what happened months after. Deluge. Dry October means nothing.

  • thebigweasel

    Good news, folks! That bastion of journalism, the Santa Barbara News Press, has a five part series beginning today on why global warming is a load of hooey. Finally, some brave soul has stepped forward to save us from the moral and mental shackles of reason, logic, and basic intelligence!

    • Darin

      Which rich local has bought it and using it as their mouthpiece now? Thank goodness for John Palminteri(https://mobile.twitter.com/KEYTNC3JohnP)

      • thebigweasel

        Owner Wendy P. McCaw and fiancé Arthur von Wiesenberger are co-publishers. All but two of the reporters for the paper quit when they took over, and they were sued, and a court upheld their right to lie to the public.
        I was annoyed enough to write a letter to the editor about the article (and sorry, Daniel; I’ll shut up after this):

        CO2 Myths:a refutation.

        I’m not a scientist,just conversant on this topic.

        Mr. Auhil’sarguments are familiar ones, and easily addressed.

        #1. CO2is dangerous. It’s not toxic, and indeed is
        essential to life. It is the effects of elevated CO2
        levels in the atmosphere that are dangerous.

        #2. CO2is a pollutant. Any substance that is in locations or quantitiesoutside normal parameters is a pollutant.

        #3 All CO2 is manmade. Nobody makes this claim. However, the amount of CO2 produced now exceeds the amount absorbed by about 0.5%, and it’s that imbalance—all caused by human activities—that has caused to levels of CO2 in the atmosphere to rise to half again the levels seen in 1850.

        #4 CO2
        is the biggest warmer. Water Vapor, by far, is the biggest “warmer”. Other chemicals contribute but none are emitting in the billions of tonnes as CO2. Note: For each degree Celsius
        the atmosphere warms, it holds 7% more water vapor, aggravating the warming.

        #5 CO2 doesn’t always cause warming (paraphrased). There
        are, of course, fluctuations in temperature caused by other factors: axial tilt, orbital eccentricity, even periodic encounters with clouds of cosmic dust. All are processes that change the intensity of irradiance Earth’s surface and thus temperatures over thousands or millions of years.

        We do have instances of events that dramatically changed CO2 levels in mere centuries. Five major ones, and a couple of dozen minor ones. Volcanoes, asteroid strikes, methane releases. We refer to them as Extinction Level Events. Something that increases CO2 by 2.5 ppm a year, as anthropogenetic emissions have, is an Extinction Level Event.

        In such Events, apex species (those at the top of the food chain) are the first to go. Humans are an apex species.

        If we don’t solve it, Nature will.

  • CHeden

    After several “dry” runs, the 00Z GFS was again suggesting some TP moisture moving into SoCal. However, that was short lived, as the 06Z is now dry as a bone.
    While there’s still a chance something will eventually eject out of the ITCZ and come our way, chances are dwindling based on the number of recent dry runs vs. wet. We can only hope.
    The 06Z is first.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/484b0bd75855e7352ff9b62820f861e3c6d3621309974404b0ddf34c41519156.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f0c5268ff86b9510e6a4d2c71575c4d8282d9b84b63abb3c2eb1d99b4f53462.gif

    • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

      The EPAC hurricane season is DEAD and over for 2017 due to the hyperactive Atlantic. So is the monsoon season. We are in a classic strong La Nina pattern: I’m going to predict a hot and dry fall and a cold and drier than normal winter I think December will set both record highs and record lows with a strong Santa Ana event bringing temperatures as high as 100F to the L.A. basin during the first week of December and a record setting cold snap during the last week of December (similar to the ones in 1990, 1998, and 2007). I predict the biggest story of the winter will be a snow event down to sea level on the central coast. Places like San Francisco and Monterey will wake up to a light dusting even on the beach. Parts of the L.A basin will see snow as low as 500 feet and possibly flurries down to sea level. I predict that the biggest disappointment will be only about 50 percent of normal rainfall for the season for most of the Southern Half of the state and about 70 percent for the Northern Half. Enjoy the snow though!

    • Darin

      The GFS giveth, and the GFS taketh away…often, especially in Autumn, also if it’s rain then dry and also when we need it and probably a bunch of other ways too.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    It was a volatile month and interesting month weather wise in Santa
    Maria. The 1st 3 days were in the 100’s with even a low of 71F and
    popped up thunderstorms occurred on a couple days. The weather then
    cooled off during the middle of the month and the lows plummeted in the
    40’s around the equinox time period. The weather warmed up again at the
    end of the month but it was a dry heat instead.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/899b08fe54e001f374d23cc4b90f794bd1cbe8c85ebf3f63a517924847ea107b.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e2edc4024f4088bbc35d3c5d7c6397006ca40d408b1bf8ee69e39b6423e10ebc.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/133887472e41d4163ddd7ec5f66f18fc5a225a76243987311f9cfa1b9a0a2d2e.png

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    It’s tweets like these that hurt the climate change agenda. To focus on one month of activity and forget how inactive the last 12 years is cherry picking data to push a cause. I believe in the cause, but will not accept fake news to push that cause.

    https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/914286862734434304

    • thebigweasel

      The past 12 years show elevated numbers of major typhoons world wide. The mainland US has just been lucky up until now.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Atlantic basin has been very inactive.

        • Chris

          Going by memory, I think the Atlantic Basin has been active (minus summer 2015).
          Most have been “fish storms”.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I believe we are still in the warm phase of the AMO (+AMO) and that has been the case since 1995. From what I have seen and read, Atlantic hurricane season activity tends to increase during the warm phase of the AMO, and that has been largely true since 1995 with a couple exceptions when we had a strong El Nino, which tends to reduce Atlantic season activity. The AMO was also in its warm phase (positive) back in the 1940’s and 1950’s and went negative in the early 1960’s.

        • Taz & Storm Master

          Tell that too the people in Tx FL and PR

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)
  • AntiochWx

    There are so many weather projects I want to do, just finding the time is the hardest. I want to see if there is any correlation between earlier fall troughiness and wet winters, or if fall ridge locations make a bigger impact.

    • jstrahl

      Again, see rainfall data. Since i’ve arrived in California (Tuesday will mark 47 years in Berkeley, not necessarily in my present place), i’ve seen the following wet winters, and related Fall rainfall.
      ’72-3: wet October., November.
      ’73-4: dry October, record wet November, mid winter dry, wet March, April
      ’77-8: bone dry October (as in 0.00), November dry except for one day with 3.5 inches.
      ’78-9: dry October, November.
      ’81-2: wet October, November
      ’82-3: October pretty warm and dry till a big storm the last week, wet November.
      ’85-6: dry October, wet November past mid month
      ’92-3: dry October till the huge storm on the 29th, very dry November.
      ’94-5: dry October, very wet November.
      ’95-6: dry October, bone dry November (as in T)
      ’97-8: October bone dry aside from a one day storm early in the month which led to “normal” for the month, wet November.
      ’99-00: dry October, November a touch dry (bone dry December)
      ’04-5: wet October, normal November (thanks to the last 4 days).
      ’05-6: dry October, dryer than average November.
      ’10-11: average October, November.
      ’16-17: very wet October, below-average November.

      • honzik
        • jstrahl

          Not forgetting that storm any time soon, was thinking about the power going out for two hours as the rain got heavy. Then the power came back on around 7AM, but the rain kept getting heavier for several more hours.
          But the ’09-10 season as a whole ended up being above normal but not significantly so, against pre-season predictions which were boosted by this storm. That’s why i didn’t include it. In fact, shows that a wet October does not make for a wet year, necessarily. As per ’75-6 (lowest on record), ’89-90, ’00-01, ’07-08 (all below average) or ’91-2 (average).

          • honzik

            I seem to remember that November was dry after that. I remember hiking with my family in Sierra Azul and the new grass was just coming out and the air was warm and dry.

          • jstrahl

            Yep, a drastic change. December was drier than normal. January was wet, mostly due to 3 days in a row, February flipped again, March fairly dry, April unusually wet, saved the season.

        • Chris

          My favorite storm of all-time.
          Just when the rain ended in the Bay Area, a narrow line stalled and extended from Monterey Bay right through Morgan Hill.
          An additional 2” of rain fell with that Band.
          Total for the storm was an incredible 7.97” mostly in 12 hrs.
          This surpassed the record of 5.78” that fell during the January 4th, 2008 storm.
          Hourly rates for a four hour period ranged from 1-1.28”/hr.
          I will never forget it.

  • Fairweathercactus

    So Cal is long overdue for the old 0.00 for rain in October.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Long overdue? Let’s see, I didn’t get any measurable rain last October 2016, and no rain until Nov. 27/28. In 2015 I received 0.12 in Oct and 0.00 in Nov. So your point is?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I picked up 0.67″ here in Orange last October with two separate storm systems, with 0.22″ overnight on the 16th into the 17th, and the second storm dropping 0.45″ on the 23rd and 24th.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    After a rare cool day at 69 degrees, the flow is back to offshore again to start October. The upcoming weekend looks like another heat wave on the way and could bring some explosive fires. I predict cool days will be few and far between this month.

    Speaking of, North Lompoc had a huge fire so close to homes. This county needs to crack down on fire starters in that area.

    • Eddie Garcia

      yeah this pattern looks boring and just dose not look it will change for at least another 15 days or so. I also predict a drier and average to slightly above average temps for October. I kinda like today tho because its windy and looks like fall just after putting Halloween decorations yesterday. Hopefully late October has a a storm or two in the making or maybe even early November.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    Am forecasting October 14th too be are 1st big winter storm of the season for N CA

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Quite the awesome long range, hurricane remnant moisture interacting with big https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/afa06764935ae2de477bb40546e9146f5db45d444b7eb2b2fcc54123e8a8bebe.gif storm from the NW

    • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

      More than 2 weeks away is fantasyland. I am standing with my predictions of a bone dry October for the entire state and that the EPAC tropical season has completely shut down. I think we will hit our first weak cold front in November while the Atlantic keeps brewing em hurricanes all fall just like in 2005.

    • jstrahl

      But where is that low headed? Tune in next time, i personally wonder if it will even be there.

    • AntiochWx

      If that HP keeps dancing along just north of Hawaii most of the winter, I think NorCal might finish with some decent totals, I’m sold on SoCal unfortanuately, think they are the odd ones out this year.

    • CHeden

      The more important HP zone to watch for is the one that’s been recurring most of the Summer out around -145W.
      In the past, H.P. in this location has become a quasi-permanent feature…often bridging with H.P. over the Great Basin and setting up potent and long-lived blocks.
      Hopefully the jet will be able to keep the pattern progressive, thus bringing periods of storminess to the coast on a regular basis.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    looks like another heatwave for next weekend. Summer just doesn’t want to end

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      It seems it’s always warm/hot for Fleet Week in SF so the heat would be right on time. October heat waves are a natural part of the Nor Cal fall season.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Bunch of negative predictions for our wet season this year, sounds like last year doesn’t it ?

  • Cap’n

    Still a little field of snow below Tinker today with Castle Peak looming in the distance. Looking south towards Squaw and Desolation show a little hanging on as well. Nice turning of the colors in Cold Stream Canyon. I’m seeing a few morning lows in the 20s again before the next heat wave arrives.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b7029af717825272a827c01c2b5d6481efa188cdf83d8dc301eb77d47acfd463.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b6fe6dc1684020be7469d01ae20accb90fe28ab3e6023c483c2a411167ce0d5.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fa13a1babbc40c63d4da51c79d9cb73cc28e538dd4a152d0c96825be9595b4b1.jpg

  • Taz & Storm Master

    CA is long over due for a super cold out break with sea level snow so i think that is what we will see this season is a lot of cold air and vary low snow levels with a lot of snow

    • Cap’n

      I’m putting this on my wishcast list for Santa and I’m actually requesting that it snows Below sea level for good measure.

      • Fun fact: it is at least theoretically easier for snow to fall below sea level in California (i.e., in Death Valley) than it is right on the beaches (at sea level).

        • Eddie Garcia

          I would assume is has to do with the ocean moderating the air

        • Cap’n

          Makes sense. Do you concur with Taz & Storm Master’s winter outlook? We’re all grasping at straws here. No big Pacific winter storms in the 15 day outlook here on October 1st has many of us hitting the panic button.

          • AntiochWx

            Don’t hit the panic button just yet, at least you are in the mountains, Sierra’s should do ok this winter. I’m worried about SLO and points south.

          • Cap’n

            We could get above average snow with below average water content; there will always be something for us to bellyache about.

          • AntiochWx

            True, can’t please everybody.

        • Bombillo1

          Thanks Daniel. Should be good for a bet drink at any bar. My first one is which city gets more rainfall, Seattle or Redding.

          • AntiochWx

            Seattle, big money on Seattle.

          • Bombillo1

            Sorry, no beer for you.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            Redding

          • CHeden

            That’s cheating. Redding has a micro-climate precip-wise due to it’s proximity to the Trinities/Cascades/Northern SIerra.
            Red Bluff, which is more in the true “north Valley climate” regime only 25 miles down the road, get’s ~30% less of yearly average precip than Redding.

          • Bombillo1

            Gamblers are notoriously big cheaters.

          • Tuolumne

            My own hypothesis is that when storm clouds are coming in from the south, the moist air (which hasn’t yet been wrung out by going over high mountains) is funneled up the Sacramento Valley then forced to rise at the head of the valley. I think this is what leads to the huge wet spot in the mountains around the head of the valley on all the annual precipitation maps. The Redding area gets the initial benefit, then a lot more falls higher up. (In contrast, the whole area is shadowed by the Coast Ranges and Klamath Mountains if the clouds come in from the west.)

            Mere proximity to the local mountains, or even being in them, doesn’t always mean lots of precip. As you move from the local zone of maximum precipitation just north of Lake Shasta northward to Mt. Shasta City and McCloud, things really dry out.

            I spent a summer doing botanical work in the McCloud Flats area northeast of SR89, and the one time we went well south of the highway the increased moisture (reflected in the forest composition including the understory) was dramatic. This was in an area that’s already downwind from the McCloud River mountains under this south wind scenario.

            In contrast, as you go east and north from those mountains into and beyond the McCloud Flats, it gets a lot drier. In most places there aren’t any significant intervening mountain ranges to cause shadowing. I think the clouds have just been wrung out by that point.

          • CHeden

            We’re saying the same thing. Redding (on a local level) is unusually influenced by geographics….more so than the rest of the north Valley.

    • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

      I’m calling for that between Christmas and New Years.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Ya well that would have happened if not for the big time storm undercutting the jet or HP around Jan 2

      • Taz & Storm Master

        yep

    • weathergeek100

      The world is warming up faster and faster these days so I suspect that this will happen less and less as time goes on. I won’t place any bets on such an event happening any time soon, if it ever even happens in our lifetime again.