After mid-August reprieve, yet another prolonged California heatwave

Filed in Uncategorized by on August 25, 2017 3,560 Comments

A very hot summer thus far away from immediate coast; weak monsoon on western fringe

This summer has been among the hottest–and in some places the hottest–on record in most places, except along the immediate coast. (WRCC)

Summer 2017 has featured a recurring pattern across California, characterized by strong and persistent ridging just inland of the West Coast and prolonged, searing heatwaves across most interior portions of the state (and, indeed, across much of the American West). As has been widely noted, immediate coastal regions (within 10 or so miles of the ocean) have not been nearly as anomalously hot this summer due to the relative lack of the strong offshore winds typically required to bring hot temperatures to California’s characteristically chilly beaches. Nonetheless, warm ocean temperatures especially across the SoCal Bight have kept overall mean (and overnight) temperatures above average nearly everywhere. This combination has resulted in a rather curious situation where the majority of California is experiencing a “top 5” hottest summer on record, yet the majority of Californians (most of whom reside in densely populated coastal regions in the Bay Area and in Los Angeles/Orange counties) have witnessed comparatively mild conditions. Cities like Redding and Bakersfield are on track to approach or exceed all-time records for the greatest number of 100+ degree days in a single year, and it’s possible that other places will follow suit after another 1-2 weeks of prolonged hot weather to come.

While Arizona has seen an extremely active monsoon so far in 2017, most of California has seen much less mountain/desert thunderstorm activity than usual. (WRCC)

Another unusual characteristic of summer 2017 has been the relative absence of mountain/desert convective precipitation associated with the North American Monsoon. Interestingly, there has so far been a very strong east-west differential in monsoonal precipitation–with much of Arizona experiencing near record-wet summer conditions and some spots in the SoCal deserts experiencing near-record dry conditions. Part of the reason for this divergence is likely the persistence of high pressure on the western margin of the monsoon circulation, which has inhibited precipitation over most of California. There are still at least a few weeks left in the canonical monsoon season, and it’s often the case that California experiences a late-season surge in moisture/convective potential. Indeed, there is some indication that this very situation may evolve over the next couple of weeks (see below).

 

Upcoming heatwave will be prolonged, and will extend to coast in SoCal

Unfortunately, this post will read something like a broken record: there is more heat on the way, possibly record-breaking in some spots, and this time it may extend closer to the immediate coastline (especially in Southern California). A strong ridge will once again build directly overhead this weekend, bringing hot weather to nearly the entire state. Weak offshore flow will bring hot temperatures all the way to the beaches in SoCal, and some daily record highs may be threatened. Further north, coastal areas may yet again escape the hottest conditions, but another very prolonged streak of triple digit weather is expected across most of California’s interior valleys.

Current GFS forecast showing well above temperatures across California on three consecutive upcoming weekends. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A “second wave” of heat may develop by next weekend, preventing any meaningful cooldown. Current model forecasts suggest this one may be centered further north, and could once again bring record-breaking heat to the Pacific Northwest. If this second wave evolves largely as expected, numerous all-time cumulative “temperature threshold exceedance” records (i.e., most days above 90/100/110 degrees in a single year) may be broken in the Central Valley. At present, there are not really any indications of average or below average temperatures heading well into September (which is actually prime coastal heatwave season in California).

Models have variously suggested over the past few days that a fairly robust monsoonal incursion westward into California–affecting the mountains and deserts, and perhaps also the coastal plain–will eventually develop during the second week of this heatwave. Also in the mix is the potential for some tropical remnants to become entrained in southerly flow aloft–and it’s getting to be the time of year when that sort of pattern becomes more likely. So far this summer, the global models have overestimated the westward extent of monsoonal surges, so at this point we’ll just have to wait and see how this evolves in the 7-10 day period.

 

A California connection to potentially devastating Hurricane Harvey?

A strong, persistent, and anomalous ridge over the Western U.S. will bring major California/PacNW heatwave, and prevent Hurricane Harvey from moving away from Texas. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

At the time of this writing, rapidly-intensifying Hurricane Harvey was approaching the mid-Texas Gulf Coast. There has been widespread consternation in the meteorological community over the past 48 hours regarding the potentially devastating impacts of this remarkable storm, which likely poses the greatest threat to human lives of any landfalling American storm since Hurricane Katrina. While the storm is currently approaching category 4 status (with sustained winds in excess of 120 mph), these destructive winds (and even the enormous storm surge associated with them) are actually not the primary concern associated with Harvey. Instead, the extremely slow-moving nature of this storm following landfall has the potential to generate truly astonishing rainfall accumulations across the Texas low country. Recent simulations from the ECMWF model, for example, are showing the potential for 50+ inches (over 4 feet!) of rainfall in less than 5 days. Needless to say, rainfall of even half this magnitude could produce widespread and devastating freshwater flooding–and the latest model forecasts would approach the largest rainfall totals ever observed in North America.

Aside from the potential for a weather disaster of national significance, Harvey is also interesting from a California perspective given the importance of the anomalous western ridge in “setting the stage” for a tremendous tropical rainfall event over 1000 miles away. Hurricane Harvey is already moving slowly, but will continue to decelerate and eventually stall over land within 100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend–potentially remaining within 150 miles of the Houston area for the next 5-6+ days. This extremely sluggish movement will occur due to the combined influence of the powerful Western ridge (which will prevent westward movement and rapid dissipation over relatively arid West Texas) and the lack a of deep trough over the central U.S. (which will prevent Harvey’s circulation from being “picked up” by a larger passing storm). Thus, as the West Coast bakes amidst yet another prolonged heatwave, parts of the Gulf Coast may simultaneously experience an astonishing–and potentially devastating–tropical deluge. Stay tuned.

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    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      Noob question here, but being that these feed off the warm SST’s, do they also tend to weaken/lower the SST’s for the areas of ocean they pass over?

      • tomocean

        They do tend to cause the surface water temperature to drop by transferring heat energy to the atmosphere from the water. Katrina and Rita caused a 1 degree drop in the area of the Gulf. They also cause mixing of subsurface cool water to the surface, also resulting in cooler temperatures following a hurricane passage.

        • FolsomPrisonBlues

          Ah ok! That would make sense. I was just noticing how warm the Atlantic is from the equator and north. Hopefully it cools a bit. seeing these types of hurricane events more often would not be preferable.

          • tomocean

            Yes, this is the hurricane feeding time of year. All of that summer heat sucked up by the ocean. The storm is pasing over eighty eight degree water! That is crazy hot, even for the tropics. That temperature would cause corals to bleach.

          • max

            Not unusual. Spent years in the Tropics of Central America, through Southern Mexico…. water was often 85 for weeks, if not months, in the summer.Look at systems started off of Tehuanapec/
            Alcupulco, moving North/Northwest. Some, like Iniki, went all the way to Hawaii, with major devastation.
            Look at a generational Hurricane chart, going back for 100 years.

            .

            ..

            .

          • tomocean

            Except the water is not 85 degrees, it is now 88 degrees in spots off the Florida coast. 84.9 is normal for September. 88 is unusually hot.

          • max

            Yes…88 is VERY hot…Wonder what the records show for this part of the world!?

        • Bombillo1

          I believe I saw somewhere that this mixing/cooling effect of a hurricane would prevent a subsequent hurricane from taking the exact same path as the original.

          • tomocean

            Wouldn’t surprise me at all. It is a bit remarkable that Jose is gaining strength, even following Irma’s path so closely. I learned today that a hurricane does not have any inate steering mechanism. They would simply sit and spin, minus any other atmospheric influence! In fact, the Earth’s corollis effect would slowly draw them north.

    • Sokafriend

      Beyond sobering and explicit in terms of increased intensity of weather phenomena as itrelates to climate change.
      It’s one thing to see the surge graphs and another to read the detailed description of terrifying potentials.
      Thanks for posting, Daniel.

  • FolsomPrisonBlues

    Interesting. Just a few years ago the Pacific was crazy warm. Now it seems its the Atlantic’s turn to heat things up.

    Tried to upload the SST map, but Discus says I need to be logged in =/. Anyhow, here is the link:
    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/sst.shtml

  • Bombillo1

    Remarkably little news feed about Irma. There are hundreds of Islands dotting along the way of this storm and there are only some shots of Barbuda out there. So do these giant hurricanes pull up a blanky and sleep after 8:00 PM?

  • Phil(ontario)

    i guarantee half the people on this blog own a shirt that looks just like the hurricane irma picture below.

  • Thunderstorm

    Just finished looking at a really good click the spot elevation map of south Florida. For 50 miles north the highest elevation of land is 3 feet. If someone had the time,money,etc. why would you stay?It’s gona get ugly.

    • Bombillo1

      The next 72 hours in S Florida, oh man.

  • Sokafriend

    French minister of Interior- sea levels rise 2 meters over the two islands of St Maartin and St. Barts.. Stongest 4 buildings destroyed.
    https://www.google.com.mx/amp/s/www.express.co.uk/news/world/850844/Hurricane-Irma-deaths-casualties-caribbean-french-territories-emmanuel-macron-irma-path/amp

  • Sokafriend

    Report names of US citizens on French Territories: Emergency Phone number and email: https://travel.state.gov/content/studentsabroad/en/beforeyougo/csi/french-West-indies.html

    • Amy Cohen

      What’s a US citizen? Isn’t that racist or something? Hate crime? Jerry Brown calls hard working tax paying citizens “freeloaders”. We’re supposed to believe the criminal Feds care about the citizens they hate? Why even bother working anymore? What a stupid time to be alive.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Yikes.

      • shampeon

        You sound fun.

        This is about US citizens on vacation in the area where Irma is destroying everything, so the state department can help locate them and help them.

      • alanstorm

        What the hell does that have to do with weather?

      • Bombillo1

        Amy, your post is unsettling. Get some rest..

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    My goodness Irma is a monster… I’m very worried about this hurricane ??I really hope it doesn’t do what’s it’s forecasted to do.. most of my family lives in southeast Florida.. about half or more of my family. I’ve been talking to cousins, aunts, uncles in Florida and urging them to take this as seriously as possible, but my cousins especially are stubborn and think of Florida as a “giant sponge” that can take any hurricane and they don’t want to feed into the hysteria.. but it’s not the rain that’s the most dangerous part about Irma, it’s the destructive winds and massive storm surge that has the potential to spread very far inland.

    I explained to them that this is as dangerous as it gets pretty much and given the atmospheric set-up it’s much easier to predict where Irma will most likely track and go to. Given the consistent tracks being predicted by every single model; a US landfall is highly likely to occur somewhere between southern Florida up to the Carolinas.. any of the tracks has it leaving a trail of destruction no matter where it makes landfall and certain chaos in the US in multiple states.

    I am praying for Florida and the rest of the world/US that gets affected by this hurricane and pray my family heeds warning and evacuates cuz none of them want to they always hunker down in storms and ride it out, but they would be in the eye of it if they stayed where they are according to the track.

    My cousin Lea told me that people are frantic where she’s at and all stores are sold out of basically everything shelves are cleared out and people are scattering.. not many people are staying there.. they are crazy for staying. Some of my aunts and uncles are moving out of the area and heading north so that’s good, but a lot of my other family is hunkering down. They seem prepared and ready, but it has me worried sick. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e2eb56a2c9a2f65a1d78f66edf97b7eb0f2537a10b3d8db041bda866c5b12b1c.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e8f50e3cb1874526aa7d361a840c8160ed7eee4e9ec39180cbe8bf9c67531e88.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/843f6b771a15435c4d5e3defe811ae78887c48333c3a9bca0b4b31a276c8de4b.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6171835b0b0e5d92ad5c52b2a8755cf5b6b6de19579f60af3a62e1ff5912dec7.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9cb3f92c7aeda744711f449eb2d1e72f0ba1be37f37400d4ddf52e3dc12717b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9cb3f92c7aeda744711f449eb2d1e72f0ba1be37f37400d4ddf52e3dc12717b.jpg

  • SolarWinds56
  • CHeden

    In the last two hours, two rare nocturnal squall lines have erupted over the north Valley. The first line just moved through with some brief moderate rain. No thunder here, but can see lightning in the distance to my WNW and to my south. The next (southern) line is rapidly pushing north, and should be here just before dawn.
    WIll post more if things continue to develop.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b11dcee595f0f6ce2c959222ff6a36584ffa8c399ca9498776dff7fc7a6e18a7.jpg

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Really cool picture of a very similar setup with three tropical systems in the Atlantic.

    https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/905770545899286528

    • Darin

      Indeed, uncanny. Igor took the track that Jose likely will. Everytime I see an Irma track I think of a billiard ball hitting a rack at just the “right” spot. 🙁

  • CHeden

    We’ve got a beaut of a T’storm in progress. Torrential rain for the last 1/2 hr with intense thunder and lightning!!

  • weathergeek100

    Why are hurricane watches/warnings not up yet for south FL?

    • Darin

      Watches, warnings, and other calls often have mandatory rules for being called and for actions that must/recommend occur because of it. The NHC forecaster said that one would be out later today in the discussion this morning.

    • Jim

      Up now

  • CHeden

    1st image is the radar from about an hour ago at the height of the storm. Rain and rolling thunder is continuing in a training fashion, and we’re nearing an inch (.96″). A bona-fide dumping.
    Latest radar indicates another cell just NE of Red Bluff is firing up..and is directly upstream from me…so maybe more on the way???
    Local news is reporting several lightning-caused spot fires. Looks like we’re getting enough rain though, to keep any fires that do spark up under control.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f65715e67cce72aa1e8d720d6645362ad69b9fc5e9eda2154c76845eed1d1823.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf0ee2d10049a9dd85d6e4c7c6fdb7ecfd86f70d59ca4b2068857e373064d848.jpg

  • CHeden

    Upstream cells continuing to develop and moving my way.
    Rain total now 1.06″ since 6.am. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61aa4b4a58d600551d8af0696e0a1cbb8e6a5fb4602bcda7459154e59b0b25ac.jpg

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Wow nice totals!!! Drizzle fest in orinda.

    • alanstorm

      Let’s get some of that water those Oregon Border fires !
      Rainfall record for the date?

      • CHeden

        Good bet on both comments. The rain is widespread within the deformation zone..not just just spotty stuff…so most of the NW fires are going to see some relief. In my time up here (12 yrs) easily the heaviest Summer rain I’ve ever seen…let alone for the date.

      • Bombillo1

        At least Weaverville fire gets doused. When the air you breath is unfit there really is nothing else to talk about..

  • CHeden

    Here’s a couple of images I took early this morning to try and capture the size of the raindrops and rainfall intensity. Note the shadows on the house wall from the huge drops.
    Note: Anderson now at .95″ as of 8 a.m. Looks like I got a bit more at my place.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce8650373e4ad059ecee1c46136c1df13a9b26aebfcb80bdadf58f29009d1687.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c8b04675d7c0c4d41246bac89a88f609ce987ec4ebfe91e39e9512d8620283f8.jpg

  • CHeden

    Thank you Lidia.
    No wonder my spidey senses have been going off all week. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9512cf5e6a3b0249dad1dbcfc681b809200ce69985a8b607ef62e4f3bcf11011.jpg

  • Jim

    From NWS Miami…..

    POTENTIAL IMPACTS
    —————–

    * WIND:
    Prepare for life-threatening wind having possible devastating impacts
    across South Florida. Potential impacts include:
    – Structural damage to sturdy buildings, some with complete roof
    and wall failures. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Damage
    greatly accentuated by large airborne projectiles. Locations
    may be uninhabitable for weeks or months.
    – Numerous large trees snapped or uprooted along with fences and
    roadway signs blown over.
    – Many roads impassable from large debris, and more within urban
    or heavily wooded places. Many bridges, causeways, and access
    routes impassable.
    – Widespread power and communications outages.

    * SURGE:
    Prepare for life-threatening surge having possible devastating impacts
    across coastal Collier, Mainland Monroe, coastal Miami-Dade counties
    including Biscayne Bay. Potential impacts in this area include:
    – Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding greatly
    accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural damage to
    buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly compounded
    from considerable floating debris. Locations may be
    uninhabitable for an extended period.
    – Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
    severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may become
    stressed.
    – Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
    – Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
    Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many lifted
    onshore and stranded.”

    • Bombillo1

      They left out locusts and boils…

  • inclinejj

    Drizzle and some rain drops overnight. Had to use the windshield wipers over to Daly City. Streets wet people driving like they were all released from the insane asylum. Pacifica.

    • jstrahl

      I’ve noticed temps have not dropped below 60 even after the heat wave ended, looks like it could rain in central Berkeley this morning.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    I can’t wait to see our storms this year on GOES-16. Irma looks beautiful:
    http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-1-100

    • matthew

      Looks like Turks & Caicos is going to get creamed. I spent a week partying there a few years ago (Grace Bay) and was struck by how most of it was just a few feet above sea level. I remember thinking at the time that the place was not going to exist in 40-50 years due to sea level changes. Little did I know that it could be as short at 4-5 years.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      GOES-16 gets moved into GOES East’s orbital slot (75° W) in a couple of months.

      🙁

      We in the Western US will likely get GOES-17, which is scheduled to launch next year.

      http://www.noaa.gov/media-release/noaa-s-newest-geostationary-satellite-will-be-positioned-as-goes-east-fall

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        That’s too bad for us. They definitely need it more, but that technology is amazing.

    • Bombillo1

      This link requires a desk top pc and high resolution? I can’t open with iPad.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        It’s designed for a Desktop PC/Mac. I can open it on my iPhone, but the animation doesn’t work.

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
  • Jeff

    In watching Irma come closer to the US, many of the models are predicting that the wind speeds may decrease to a cat 4 or even a 3 prior to landfall. However, the wind speeds are just one part of the devastation that a hurricane can cause and alone do not really represent the total intensity of the hurricane. If the winds of Irma decrease but the storm size and wind field increases, the damage may be far more severe and widespread than if Irma remains a “relatively” compact cat 5 at landfall.

    There is a good comparison of the storm surge resulting from Camille, which was a relatively small and compact cat 5, to Katrina, which was a strong cat 5 at one point but made landfall as a cat 3. However, Katrina was massive and had hurricane force winds 120 miles from its center (vs 60 miles currently for Irma) and pushed about 4 times the water vs Camille into the gulf coast. Similarly, Ike resulted in a 22 foot storm surge as a cat 2.

    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_details.asp

    • Unfortunately, the more reliable intensity models are indeed suggesting a true cat 4/5 landfall IF the storm moves over land near Miami (winds would be lower if it waited until further up the SE coast). There is a legitimate chance of winds exceeding 120-130 mph in downtown Miami.

      Though in general, your point regarding impacts is true–cat 5 level surge can still occur with a “weakening” system even if winds are not at the top of the scale.

  • Nathan

    Those cells that got CHeden look like they’re dropping real decent moisture on parts of the Chetco Bar fire area. Hopefully it helps put out more of the fires than the lightning might start.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    MPAS was one of the competing model technologies to replace the GFS. NOAA eventually chose their internally-developed FV3 Model technology for the eventual GFS replacement. (to the dismay of some scientists including Cliff Mass)

    At any rate, IBM is running MPAS on their supercomputer, and here’s what it is depicting for Irma:

    https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/905841507214688256

    • Wow. That would be an unprecedented American catastrophe. And that solution really isn’t all that different from the ECMWF or the high-res hurricane models. Will be very interesting to see what the 12z ECMWF shows shortly.

      • tomocean

        I saw that the GFS was modeling the idea of the storm tapping into the extremely warm (88 degree) temperatures off of the Florida coast and strengthening just before landfall! Assuming that shear doesn’t happen, it seems very reasonable.

        • Nathan

          Think it all depends on how much time the storm spends in the triangle of warm water between the Keys, Cuba, and the Bahamas. For a while most of the models stalled the storm there for ~12-18hrs, gaining strength, before moving N up the coast – very bad.

          The last couple GFS runs seem to have more of an over-Bahamas track with little to no stalling in the warmest waters resulting in a slightly weaker (but still very strong) storm between Bahamas and Miami.

          Hoping that this solution comes to fruition, because EC is still more of a stall-y track. Honestly I’m not sure any of the models can be that accurate up to like 24hrs before. Harvey’s extreme rainfall didn’t get picked up until the day before and it was off by ~50-100 miles.

          • tomocean

            Yes. The less time it spends over those water, the better off everyone will be. Though at this point, the difference may not be enough to avoid a catastrophe for the east coast of Florida, and beyond.

        • Thunderstorm

          Go to the head of the class, this is what happened with Sandy. The warm gulf stream. Believe this is the path of least resistance. Waters are shallower and warmer next to the coast.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        The 12z EC looks bad, too.

    • Bombillo1

      Dead nuts center.

    • Wow this stuff ain’t free. Glad he tweeted and you posted!

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    As big as Irma is, she is still smaller than Katrina. Some cool comparisons:
    https://twitter.com/capitalweather/status/905841333683851266
    https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905838909816492032

  • Wolfpack

    Was just checking out the southeast Florida traffics cams and I’m surprised the turnpike wasn’t more congested, maybe most have headed north already. The Florida Keys look like a ghost town, thankfully. The Key West mayor said there is a saying living in the Keys when it comes to the different intensity hurricanes, ” We hide from the wind but run from the water”.

    • Yolo Hoe

      That is one of the most jaw dropping visuals I’ve ever seen — thanks for posting it, though I wish it was still fantasyland and thus still a higher probability of not happening — your dramatic word choices are unfortunately appropriate.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Uh Oh. Its the EMCWF that has been most reliable I beleive.

    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905855755831701505

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Yeah, the models aren’t looking good. Most are painting a really scary picture. These aren’t trending in a good way. A track just to the West of Miami will subject Miami to the worst of it.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Agreed. I am starting to think that the US has dodged natural disaster bullets for a long time. Yes, we had Sandy, Katrina, 1989 Bay Area Quake, but in most cases, we came away saying, “It could have been much worse.”

        I fear our luck may have run based on what happened with Harvey and what appears is going to happen with Irma.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I’m just hoping model runs trend differently over the next 24-36hrs. Right now, many of them are depicting worst-case.

    • Nathan

      I hate to pump too much sunshine, but IF there is a “good” place for the eye to come ashore, it’s the Everglades. Hopefully the strongest (NW quadrant) winds are south of Miami.

      • Strongest winds are generally in NE quadrant, which comes dangerously close to Miami in that run.

        • Nathan

          Thanks, that’s what I meant. We’ll see what happens.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      The “worst case scenario” keeps getting worse with each update…

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Yep. The latest run also has Irma at 927 MB vs 937 of the previous run.

      • Nathan

        Kind of makes one jaded a little bit. Either it’s the “worst” case scenario or it isn’t. Frankly, this isn’t. What would be worse is a 200mph sustained hurricane with a Tip-sized windfield hitting Miami or NYC or DC. This is terrible, but it’s not “the worst.”

        Perhaps the most remarkable thing of this summer:

        50″ of rain absolutely nailing 5th largest US metro.
        Cat. 5 hurricane absolutely nailing 8th largest US metro.

        The chances of that are astronomically low.

        • But the worst case scenario you’ve mentioned is not really physically possible–there are constraints on the maximum size of a cat 5 storm in the Atlantic vs Pacific (which is where Tip occurred). It is entirely plausible that Irma makes landfall very close to Miami as a true cat 5, but it’s really anyone’s guess whether winds would be at 140 or 180+ mph at that time. I would say that the true worst case scenario (for Miami) is still in play for Irma, and we won’t know for sure until the track is more or less locked in 12-24 hours out.

          • thebigweasel

            The difference between 140 and 180mph doesn’t sound like much, but that’s just the velocity. To get the FORCE of the wind, square each number. 196 to 324, over half again as much force. The Venturi effect on rooftops follows a similar scale.

          • Nathan

            185mph with a larger windfield is totally possible if it stalls in the waters north of Cuba. _That_ would be worse. Is any model showing that? Not yet.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I think “worst case” in this situation means the worst/most damage that *Irma* could reasonably inflict.

          The other scenarios you mention really aren’t in play. Otherwise I can think of lots worse “worst-case” scenarios, some of which which include things like Yellowstone exploding, 6-mile wide asteroids, or a massive gamma-ray burst aimed at Earth.

          • Nathan

            Fair enough.

            I guess I just have adjective fatigue.

  • SoCalWXwatcher
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Daniel shared this story on Twitter worth a read. I believe after Andrew is when the snake populate in FL exploded because they escaped from their damaged zoos and made themselves comfortable in the Everglades. “….in the pythons’ case, this act has backfired on the whole state of Florida. … facility near the Everglades was destroyed by Hurricane Andrew in 1992.”
    https://twitter.com/AndreaTWeather/status/905862958470844416

    • Thunderstorm

      Just read Mike Buresh blog and he warned those that did not evacuate would have unwelcome visitors, snakes and fire ants.

  • Bombillo1

    Irma just now showing up on the goes east rainbow loop. You don’t really have to consult models too much at this point, watch it in real time.

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

  • molbiol

    All eyes (including my own) are on Irma. So much so that many of the web pages that give access to model data are being overwhelmed (i.e. tropical tidbits almost crashed a little while earlier). However, I am still keeping an eye out on the cutoff low which looks to impact Socal on Sunday. The CMC and NAM are much further south with the low than the GFS. If the NAM and CMC verify, then much of Southern CA will be in a favorable area of upper level diffluence and moisture transport resulting in widespread precip and T-storms. CMC generates more widespread precip compared to the GFS. However some of this may be due to differences in spatial resolution between the GFS and CMC.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9a98a3513a6223b123d65f384c0dd199e0c715ec076b58df7d8d9def7e942b45.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4013a4c37429cf4da7314910ec08fb08831be80219e86dc36634bb3ad4cd2d90.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4a025c6164e47e153b1864406b759d8d307696402de84a4d3cf4bb6b255ddde7.jpg

    • Fairweathercactus

      12z backs off on this idea and shows most of the moisture missing LA County.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        You’re a buzz kill.

        • Unbiased Observer

          That’s his schtick…dunno why.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            Probably been jilted one too many times.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Mommy didn’t buy fruit loops…again.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I’ve been monitoring this weather possibility for SoCal over the last few days and it’s trending to a best case scenario. With the CoL now forecasted to move SW of us and the HP over Utah providing an east-southeasterly flow we can see showers/storms all the way to the coast Sat nite/Sun. The NWS office in LV has worded it perfectly in their AFD:

      By Saturday, monsoon moisture will begin to wrap into the closed low off of the California and will spread chances for scattered storms westward. Mostly cloudy to overcast skies may limit some activity, however the region will be positioned under an area of diffluent flow aloft meaning thunderstorms will need only limited daytime heating to initiate. Main threats with thunderstorms both Friday and Saturday will be flash flooding, especially over higher terrain where thunderstorms may anchor or train for hours.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        NOAA San Diego is on board with this also!

  • thebigweasel

    Latest from NOAA on Irma: 922mb eye pressure, sustained winds of 175, gusts to 225.
    Still a monster, still aimed directly at Miami.
    Jose is a Cat 2 and might be a threat to Bermuda.
    Kitia is a Cat 1 and effectively stationary in the Gulf.

  • Cap’n

    Had to rub my eyes; “normal” temp outlook. Dare I say that having lunch outside today I could’ve used a sweatshirt (when the sun went behind a cloud and the breeze blew). Thanks for everyone posting hurricane updates, you guys are on it. Our house guest from Ft Lauderdale refuses to acknowledge that it is highly unlikely that she’ll be flying back on Sunday.

    We need to get her on the blog. Wishing for the best for those of you who have family and friends in Irma’s path.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/da0b80bea215881ea9de1d9668551c1a1d01fd3d499cbcea0e74ec24160cc330.png

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Say hi to your guest from this past Floridian. I lived in Lauderdale from ’64 until late ’73. Praying for a miracle!

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    I received a brief text from my brother who lives in St.Thomas, VI.

    It read:

    we are fine
    house ok

    That’s terrific news! The situation in the VI will soon be more revealed. Then, Irma goes into S. Florida. That’s when all news will be of what happens there.

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      Glad to hear!!!

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Yup! Cut-off low developing and where it lands nobody knows.

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
  • Jason Jackson Willamette
  • RunningSprings6250
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I’ve seen worse ones than that on Social Media. Losing my faith in Humanity one idiot at a time…

      • Farmer47

        I held out hope as long as I could but now I’m just gonna ride the wave till it crashes. Its just a matter of time till the human race implodes.

      • John

        I don’t even think that’s historically accurate. But what would you expect?

  • weathergeek100

    Is there some shearing taking place on the west side of Irma? Potential weakening coming up? I hope it weakens a bit (wow, I never say that about storms).

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It doesn’t have the perfect symmetry that it did this time yesterday, but it’ll be heading over warmer water soon so I’m not sure how much weakening is in the cards. Back in 2005 Katrina pulled in some drier air before it hit New Orleans and quickly fell to Category 3. One can hope.

      • Thunderstorm

        Irma will be moving over water that is warm to great depths, no weakening expected.

    • Might be eyewall replacement?

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Not sure how accurate this chart is, but it basically says Irma will be heading towards the area of the atlantic with the highest potential intensity storm. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e7b5af972cfd5c890de088ee54733cf7ea122a8dea1a29aeb6fd244d9f7814b4.jpg

    • weathergeek100

      Well, it is heading over the gulf stream right now, the warmest part of the Atlantic. Not good news.

      • Irma has been over +30C water for a few days.

      • Thunderstorm

        The gulf stream is the highway of least resistance. Irma will move north then be blocked by higher pressure.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Anyone else just love what the 18z GFS shows for CA through 200 hours!

    • Farmer47

      Do you have the link to that?

    • It may be an interesting September. Or a more normal one.

    • molbiol

      LaLa land shows another massive ridge over Northern california and has Jose getting caught in Irmas wake before impacting the US Northeast coast. All the disclaimers apply here though

  • molbiol
  • Flow aloft turns to the southeast over our
    region late Saturday night/early Sunday morning, with the GFS and
    NAM showing mid-level moisture and some elevated instability
    moving in over the entire forecast area, creating the potential
    for scattered elevated showers/thunderstorms from the deserts all
    the way to the coast/coastal waters. Precipitable water increases
    to 1.4-1.5 inches Sunday afternoon, which in combination with high
    amounts of instability (near or above 1000 j/kg of sbcape) could
    lead to an active afternoon of thunderstorms over the mountains,
    deserts, valleys and there’s even a chance that the coast could
    get some as well. With the southeast to east flow, some warming
    could occur on Sunday, but this will depend on how much cloud
    cover there is across the area.

    Sounds fun!

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Seems to be setting up just like last Sunday’s outbreak with Lidia. Just hope divergence is a bit further south.

      • Believe this has more potential than Lidia, Lidia only brought a moisture surge to us. This one has a wider field of upper dynamics and instability.

        • thebigweasel

          Well, for Santa Barbara, maybe a bit LESS potential.

          • Well tbh Santa Barbara looks like it may be under the gun AGAIN.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            It should stay mainly behind the front range here with this flow…the inner Los Padres NF (east SB county) looks to do well.

  • tomocean
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It would be great if this over performs and Irma underperforms.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      LOL, we would be lucky to count five drops of rain from that picture. But I am happy with the cloud cover and cooler temps.

    • Telegraph Hill

      There’s been a lot of debate about whether significant early season precipitation spells doom for rain in the heart of winter. Was there ever a statistically significant correlation between the two, or does this concept remain hearsay?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        A question for Daniel, Cheden, Craig and @WxBillMoHill:disqus

      • CHeden

        IMHO,
        Depends on the setup that spawns the precip.
        Tropical remnants in Fall seem to lead to normal to wetter Winters, whereas potent early Fall cold fronts lead to drier Winters..especially in the Jan-Apr period.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          It does seem that a lot of early season action from the north in the fall leads to a drier than normal late winter or spring. I wonder why this happens?

          • CHeden

            Early season cold fronts often indicate the position of quasi-dominant high pressure in the north/east Pacific. Fronts that push down to our latitude do so because high pressure ridging offshore is further north and west than normal…and as we know this type of setup often evolves into high pressure ridging between the EPac and the upper Great Basin….i.e. a blocking ridge.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Thank you

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Thanks for the info! I guess we should root for early season activity to be of the cut off and/or tropical variety in order to have a better chance of a good winter. As with everything in weather, I am sure there are exceptions.

          • I agree with you but what affects the semi-anchored ridge placements? 🙂

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      so this cutoff low will linger for 7-8 days, why is Sunday and Monday suppose to be 91 degrees?

  • molbiol

    NWS New Orleans breathes a sigh of relief in their latest AFD:

    “One of the key features that will help determine when and where the
    turn for Irma will come is a s/w that around 18z was located near
    the border of WY/NE/SD. The 18z special soundings from Rapid City
    and North Platte should capture this feature well and help the
    models figure a little of this turn out. At this time that feature
    is expected to continue to the southeast through the Ozarks and
    into the lower MS Valley Saturday. This will occur as the deep
    east coast L/W torugh tries to pull off to the northeast. As it
    happens it and the base of the trough will be enough to prevent
    the Atlantic ridge and the ridge over TX from building in to the
    north of Irma by leaving a weakness or even a weak closed low.
    With this weakness between the 2 ridges over the extreme eastern
    Gulf, FL, and southeast US coast Irma will have no place to go but
    turn to the northwest and then north somewhere around the
    southern tip of FL. This is a very terrible situation for FL along
    with portions of GA and possibly SC/NC but b/c of this our area
    will remain in a pattern that will keep us dry and near normal to
    slightly below normal temps.”

  • Thunderstorm

    Just heard on the news that two families will stay on their boats in Miami to ride out the storm.” Not going to change our way of life.” Must be the McFly and Kelly families, the families from Back to the Future and Bering Sea Gold. Reminds me of a conversation in a bar some blonds were having when another customer over heard them talking about taking a trip to the sun. The customer said,”You can’t take a trip to the sun you’ll burn up.” One of the blonds said, “Were not stupid you know were going at night.” Someone on this blog yesterday said, “Sometimes you got to let a fool be a fool.” So many fools so sad.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Staying on a boat? Not letting it change their way of life? It could possibly end their life. I’m guessing that drowning and not breathing anymore would be a definite change of lifestyle for them.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    From my own estimate it looks like Hurricane Irma is roughly between 689-758 miles wide from around 65 W- 75 maybe 76 W http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/rb0-lalo.gif

    • Jim

      I believe the WC stated it was over 600 miles wide (assuming they meant the impact zone) so your right on the money !!

  • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

    Normally, I’d be quite excited about the potential for a cut off low to bring thunderstorms to our coast next week. But now I’m far more concerned about the the total annihilation of South Florida this weekend, 200 mph sustained winds making a direct beeline for Miami.

    • Jim

      200 mph sustained ???? When did you hear that ?

      • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

        It is expected to strengthen even more before landfall plus this shear size of this storm will cause widespread devastation throughout Florida, even inland. Miami and South Beach could be annihilated completely to the point of never rebuilding. Same with much of the East Coast of Florida. I even think Orlando’s tourists could be stranded there until they get the airport up and running which may take a week or so and the theme parks may not re open for business until October. This is unprecedented territory we are talking about it.

        • Nathan

          Storm surge may reach Nashville I heard from a guy!

        • Jim

          I must have missed something the last couple hours. Everything I saw today showed it decreasing in speed to around 145 when it makes landfall

        • Bombillo1

          Does Disneyworld have a submarine ride like Disneyland? Just kicking around some survival ideas…

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          The 00z run of the “Who Killed Kenny Strawn” model is a doozy. This model does appear to be an outlier when compared to the EC, GFS, NAM & NOM.

          High windspeed bias. Tends to overestimate max sustained winds. Programmers will probably need to adjust the algorithms accordingly.

      • Sublimesl

        500 MPH, with gusts to 200,000 MPH

        • Jim

          Now that I can believe !!! But 200 ? Come on !!

        • thebigweasel

          Oh, that’s the forecast for Weed, California. Just a breezy summer afternoon.

  • Jim

    Hmmm…a ad for the Hurricane Spin Broom on the WC….coincidence ??? I think not…LOL

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Hurricane warnings and storm surge warnings just issued for South Florida! Surge of 7-10 feet forecast and 8-12 inches of rain

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Ha more like 20 foot storm surge and 25-30 inches of rain I’ll bet on it.. unfortunately, but that’s what I see unfolding.

      • cthenn

        No one has mentioned anything about a Harvey-like 2+ feet of rain from what I’ve read.

        • Tuolumne

          It’s moving too fast for that.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            She will slow down at the end of her run, and stall over the the Carolinas’ or the mid-Atlantic states or the Virginia’s. Then, all of that tropical cloud mass releases over the Appalachians…

      • Tuolumne

        Depends where. Shallow water, lots of storm surge (Biscayne Bay). Deep water close to shore, not so much (most of southeast Florida).

  • Telegraph Hill

    Latest 3km NAM now shows the eyewall not making landfall but keeping just offshore. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/20b8531fd20a76d3342055c382cf70e9cbf20a84cb39bd1667fdcb7acd0bee02.png

    • molbiol

      These subtle shifts are going to continue….it must be very nerve wracking to be a meteorologist in Florida right now. As NWS Tampa put it:

      “We are
      still 3 days out from this system, which is an eternity in hurricane
      forecasting. Remember the average track error at day 3 is about 175
      miles. A 175 miles range on either side of the current forecast
      point at day 3…put anywhere in the Florida peninsula in play for
      this hurricane. “

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      From what I am reading elsewhere the NAM is not designed for East Atlantic Tropical Storms, so this is a pointless run to look at.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It would be awesome if this were a trend, but I’ve seen some comments from Meteorologists that the 00z NAM was not intitialized properly. The 06z run should tell us if this is the case.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      GFS showing 898mb on landfall.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/99a2ea61b9d817e6adb49de7098d61db91e349e1c94f979cdccf4cf2bb292760.jpg
    Damn just look at that thing compared to Andrew and then Florida, Florida is gonna be covered like a blanket in the next couple days it’s literally 3 times or more the width of it! Shits about to go down, best of luck to the Floridans

    • Pfirman

      Geometrically and awesomely larger.

    • Dumb question, but I’m wondering what makes some hurricanes of the same intensity vary so much in size? Is it dependent on the original tropical wave that created the hurricane or what?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        My thinking is the many many eye wall replacements have caused it to gradually increase along with that it’s been a major hurricane for so long and has traveled thousands of miles. Also it’s been a CAT 5 for 2 and a half 3 days and over half the time it has had winds of 185 MPH so it’s bound to be big. Those insane winds for that long will spread out the storm and its wind field. That’s my hypothesis, here is Eric Webb’s ( hurricane specialist) who just replied to me on twitter on this question https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/906021948924223489

    • annette johnson

      It’s just unbelievable. Hard to believe that Irma is the size of Texas and it’s about to engulf Florida. Godspeed to the folks evacuating.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Mother Nature is really in a foul mood lately.

    8.0 (preliminary magnitude) Earthquake in Mexico according to USGS.

  • Nate

    Big earthquake (8.0) off of Chiapas–depth 33km. It’s on the deeper side, but a tsunami is certainly possible.

    https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/pt17251000#executive

    • Rusty Rails
      • Nate

        Tsunami not expected for the US. Still possible in Mexico/Guatemala.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Hurricane Katia is in the Bay of Campeche not all that far away from the epicenter of that quake, maybe about 350 miles or so.

  • Nate

    Here’s a link to a live seismic data feed from Berkeley. You can watch the line as the seismic waves pass by in real-time.

    http://memento.ieor.berkeley.edu/Seismo.html

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Cat 5 Hurricanes, 8.0 Earthquakes, Tsunami warnings…
      if I were near a volcano I’d be nervous, cause the day ain’t over yet….

      • Unbiased Observer

        ….North Korea about to nuke us

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          We could probably deal with all that. So long as Bieber doesn’t come out with a new album. That’d be the final nail in the coffin.

          • Nathan

            Is Lenny Bruce not afraid?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Cranking up REM right now.

      • alanstorm

        Hey man, you forgot about the X class SOLAR FLARE

      • mattzweck

        sign of the times. maybe

      • Keiko the Sleddog (Mammoth)

        I live on a volcano, wonderful.

      • thebigweasel

        Let’s not forget the two massive X-class flares the sun fired off — at the minimum of the solar cycle. More expected, could see a Carrington Event before the month is out.

    • SoCalWXwatcher
      • Nate

        We’re going to be seeing some impressive videos of long period motion from Mexico City.

  • Nate
  • palmsprings

    So the ONE day I am absent from the desert (was in Riverside between 11 AM and 5 PM), my area gets by far the biggest t-storm of the entire summer. My rain gauge measured 0.12″ when I got home and apparently there were huge wind gusts accompanied by several lightning strikes.
    Irony can be pretty ironic sometimes…

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    “Earthquake Lights” or arcing transformers/power lines?

    https://twitter.com/metsul/status/906033698205704193

    • Nate

      Definitely transformers.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I agree. That was shot in Mexico City, which was very far from the actual epicenter. Not very likely that was piezo-electric discharge from the actual fault rupture.

        • Bombillo1

          Piezo-electric could be generated just from the land movement, the epicenter is not required, No?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Doesn’t it require the shearing of quartz rock formations along the fault? Mexico City is over 400 miles from the epicenter, and is built upon landfill that quivers like jelly when struck by seismic waves, which is why they felt it so strongly 400 miles away.

          • CHeden

            Piezo electric current can be generated by certain materials (like quartz) due compressional (increase/decrease) changes on an object. It does not necessarily have to “shear” to generate a current flow.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            If you take two pieces of quartz and rub them together hard and quickly in the dark, you will see an electrical current inside the rock.

          • CHeden

            The quake ruptured almost 160km of fault…and possible piezo-electric discharge could have occurred anywhere within the region…as well as outside the rupture boundaries. Note that any electrical energy that was created could have propagated far away from it’s point of origin depending on subterranean conductivity. Note that this region is dominated by a subduction zone with the down-thrusting slab full of saline water….i.e.highly conductive?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Rupture along the subduction region shown in the black rectangle. Mexico City is at the very edge of the frame at left, about 640+km away.

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d5397d023804d95e2766e34a9fe292ffb1c9ceb3fd77a0b76daa1f5a2d4cc197.jpg

          • CHeden

            deleted

          • CHeden
    • I’m hearing from the geology side that at least some of the footage from Mexico appears to be depicting real “earthquake lights.” The underlying atmospheric ionization process is not well understood, but they were apparently generated during this event. It’s actually only the emergence of video evidence in recent years that convinced scientists this was likely a real phenomenon, and not a myth…

      • I would think despite verifiable evidence that scientists had already proven it’s existence.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        This is sort of like how sightings of sprites above thunderstorms were considered wives tales by many until there was an increasing abundance of photographic proof.

        Regarding the video taken from Mexico City – they are over 400 miles from the epicenter. I recall seeing something similar during the Landers Earthquake in the early 90’s, bright flashes, which were due to power lines and transformers. They lit up the sky, but you could also see the bright source on the horizon. I don’t doubt there were legitimate earthquake lights closer to the actual fault rupture.

        • Nate

          Yeah, you can see the transformers/lines on the ground in most of the flashes in this video. Most of the theories explaining these lights involve higher frequency motion than what was observed in Mexico City, so local lights are unlikely. That said, they’re a real phenomenon–just not well explained.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            If those are lights or transformers, would they flash over and over again anyways?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            If they are arcing from the swaying motion. If they “blow” they would only light things up once. And those lights are probably various different transformers in a city that probably has thousands of them.

            One night a couple years ago a car ran into a power pole 2 blocks from my house. The sky lit up brightly as though there were lightning overhead.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Copy, just curious.

      • CHeden

        Here’s a couple of personal theories:
        An electrical potential (E-field gradient) is naturally created between “ground” and the edge of space which has a natural amount of accumulated charge ….forming a giant “capacitor” if you will.
        Any changes in the electrical properties of either earth or space will have an impact on the voltage gradient across the dielectric…in this case atmosphere. At the exact same time of the earthquake, a CME from the recent X9.9 solar flare was hitting earth..which sparked mega-auroras overnight, and coupled with widespread radio blackouts, increased ionization in the highest levels of the atmosphere were obviously present. Therefore, one can conclude that the planetary magnetosphere must have been in a heightened state of flux.
        Based on this reasonable scenario, it’s possible that charged particle emissions from near the fracturing fault interacted with a heightened earth-space voltage gradient and together generated a current flow of sufficient voltage to spark a visible plasma (a glo-discharge in my opinion) as the “capacitor” periodically discharged.
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/331b91deb5301d870bfce73db3b1b652cb4ca96504ff91de0fa35f043b12e144.png

        • alanstorm

          That might be it if you can see if there was a solar flare prior Nov 9, 1980.
          Widespread reports of earthquake lights during that quake (see above)

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          What a fascinating place we live…great interpretation CHeden!

    • Sokafriend

      Earthquake lights.

      • alanstorm

        Was witnessed during the 7.0 quake in Humboldt 1980, I saw sky light up out my window, no power lines there.

    • Sokafriend

      The upper photo of the earthquake lights is reported as from the coast of Chiapas.

      The lower shot or video shows skyline over Mexico City.

      http://www.afntijuana.info/nacionales/74002_registran_luces_en_el_cielo_tras_terremoto#ver_nota

    • Alice Paul (LA)

      I remember the flashing sky during the Northridge earth quake in LA. Never knew the cause, but I was convinced that I was going to die.!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Interesting article from NatGeo on this topic.

      http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2014/01/140106-earthquake-lights-earthquake-prediction-geology-science/

      “The lights can occur weeks before major earthquakes, Freund noted, or during actual shaking. They have been recorded at distances of up to 100 miles (160 kilometers) from the epicenter.”

      Mexico City is 4x that distance from the epicenter, so I’m going with electrical grid discharges regarding the video above. Areas near Chiapas probably saw the real thing though.

  • Nathan

    00Z ECWMF just out…pretty drastic differences compared to the rest of the models. Broader, weaker, more SW on the Fl peninsula. Very interesting to see what happens. Still a bigass hurricane though.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0b846d701b3409f23fb3b2b93b7b9c0bddf091b197640195a4f083edae2b15a7.png

  • Sokafriend

    Last night forecast indicated that Jose was too far away from Irma to affect or weaken Irma. But it seems it has hurtled across the ocean and is now very close. Is Jose now pulling energy from Irma?
    The images from the Caribbean are so stark. It’s amazing to see so many trees standing- but all stripped of every single leaf.

  • Shane Ritter

    Lots of troughs on the 06z hrs this morning. Most past 7 days, but does it bode well, or is to early in the season to tell?

  • Thunderstorm

    Prepared for the hurricane in south Florida? NOT POSSIBLE. Relief help after? Jack Nickolsen said it best.

  • Bombillo1

    I am sure there is a blog somewhere that is supplying good Irma information but there is damn little on US mainstream. Irma has passed over some major land masses and should be felt in Eastern Cuba at this moment. Where the hell is the reporting? Is the attention span this bad?

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

    • StefanoR99

      Watch BBC News or France 24 if you want actual news.

      • Bombillo1

        I didn’t say I wanted actual news, just that the snipe-ing teleprompter readers to mention something about us dying from time to time.

    • thebigweasel

      There was a massive earthquake in Chiapas in southern Mexico (mag 8.2) last night, generating tsunami warnings and killing hundreds and that same area will be hit by hurricane Kitia by Monday. You wouldn’t know it from US television.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        That’s weird that it wouldn’t be covered on tv. I learned about it late last night via a local tv news station’s social media account.

        • Rusty Rails

          Yeah it was all over west coast TV last night.

    • Cap’n
      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        We can thank the phrase “Embrace Debate” for destroying regular news and sports. Everyone needs to yell at each other to make a point even if it’s not true/valid. I miss the days of the old CNN/ESPN.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Calm, fact-based reporting doesn’t pull in ratings. The Jerry Springer model of argumentative theatrics apparently does.

    • Nathan

      Tell WaPo that Trump and the Russians may or may not have tried to plot the earthquake and they’ll send the whole newsroom to investigate…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Good point. Turks and Caicos got hammered by the eyewall yesterday evening, and there isn’t much being reported on conditions there yet. Hope they got through it without the kind of damage we saw in Barbuda.

    • alanstorm

      That’s pretty much why I, a person concerned daily about weather, follow this blog.
      Internet news now repeats 24 hour old news reports but puts “5 minutes” on the heading.
      Hit the “news” link & they’re 2 days old.
      They need a link that says “BREAKING WEATHER NEWS” that goes directly to Weatherwest

    • sir fislow

      Turn off the TV and go to LA TIMES website. Top story is about the earthquake in Mexico and three stories below that is about Turks and Caicos getting hit. Just a suggestion.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    Holy crap! Tons of rain in Florida and rain in the entire Western US.

    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1504880858

    • jstrahl

      The East Coast forecast is totally sensical, not so the California coast. Really? 🙂

  • tomocean
    • With Olivia?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Munn?

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I Wish.

        • Caridi

        • inclinejj

          Aaron Rogers alienated his whole family for Olivia Munn and she kicked him to the curb.

      • tomocean

        Yanet!

    • Nathan

      Windy.

  • RunningSprings6250
    • BRP (Ventura)

      Hey RS, where did you stumble on this propaganda at? Would like to get a good Friday morning laugh, please share!

      • RunningSprings6250

        Instagram – hashtag search #category7, that’ll be a good start! Amazing how many people comment on things like this assuming its true….it took me 30 seconds to verify on IMDB that the hurricane in that movie was called Eduardo to begin with…..aye people…….

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          Someone has to push the reset button…I just don’t get the intention of disinformation.

          Might have to check out the show…I mean it does have Shannen Doherty and the great Randy Quaid. (Snark)

      • Facebook, Instagram and GLP. Lol

    • thebigweasel

      I found it and watched the first eight minutes. It’s pretty much unwatchable. Starts with the brave colonel flying an SR-71 into the eyewall of a 400mph hurricane. Not surprisingly, the plane does not do well. Brave colonel bites the big one, but fear not: his death shall be avenged.
      I remember a movie with Martin Sheen in which he plays a mad general who has taken control of a little black box and can create and control hurricanes. I figured that pretty much wrapped up Sheen’s career, but he got lucky; his next role was of President Bartlett. The movie was that bad, but at least it was funny.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I don’t plan on watching that, but what was the plot point of flying an SR-71 into a mega-hurricane? I believe it has a service ceiling of 80,000 ft, well above any weather.

        • thebigweasel

          I guess they wanted it to look a bit futuristic or something. Technical and scientific accuracy were not major concerns for this show. 400mph hurricane? On Jupiter, perhaps…

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    The new Wunderground Layout is terrible. Also when I put the official weather station in Santa Maria, It either says I’m in Aldeia, Portugal or it doesn’t exist.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/337cd6c49b4fbd86bea40d99cc7352428c598ffedf7c318cdec1bd8b909e183a.png

    • cthenn

      Totally agree it sucks

    • Bombillo1

      I will never understand the compulsion to fix shit that isn’t broken. Many businesses go out of business doing this. Most famously restaurants.

    • Jim Yerkes

      I agree I was unable to find where the Discussion section is. I now have to type in the major city ie Sscramento or SF. NWS to be able to pull up the discussion Am I missing something on the new Wunderground layout ref the discussion section?

  • alanstorm

    A welcome sight up here after being totally absent the last 3 months.
    No, it’s not smoke!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2de6f9424702ab3ec225179da2e3fa0172e33252413baf74ac170f71103e974c.jpg

    • BRP (Ventura)

      That’s the same exact location where you took a picture last March/April, where all of that currently brown grass was lush and green right? Stoked for you and the apparent change of weather, low clouds and cooler temps! Looking forward to our upcoming Fall as I’m sure all of us on this Board are!

      • alanstorm

        Off the back porch, spot of many a WW posted pics over the years, lush green, dead brown, white snow, full rain guage, summer thunderstorms over Willits…..
        I tell ya, today is absolute PERFECTION now.
        70’s & smokeless blue skies…
        I have to confess, I got close to losing it over these last 2 months with the record heat

        • BRP (Ventura)

          I envy your back porch view. I also empathize with you regarding the past 2 months of summer. I haven’t lived further then 2 miles from the coast, but I do like to travel and camp in the Sierra’s, so I know the heat is oppressive. Just hold on a few more weeks and ALL will be right again! Happy Friday!

          • alanstorm

            Thanks.
            I like Ventura, kind of reminds me of Santa Cruz.
            California is an amazing state

    • Tuolumne

      An aerosol of water in air instead of soot in air? Is that even allowed anymore? Sounds too healthy and cooling – ought to be banned. 😉

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    It’s drizzling and it smells like it rained. 🙂

    • In midst of Irma watching, weather here in CA could get pretty interesting. Starting in SoCal on Sunday and progressing northward later in the week…

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        I missed out on showers last weekend/ Labor day [only a trace] so it would be great to pick up some rainfall this weekend

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Looks like it worked out the way I was hoping for :). Unfortunately timely for discussion.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I’ve heard of one storm rolling through here in September. Two storms one week apart is quite a rarity.

  • cthenn

    Looks like latest models have track of Irma more on the west side of Florida. Also winds at landfall projected to be about 145 miles per hour.

    I have a feeling that if this thing doesn’t end up being as destructive as feared, we’ll never hear the end of it. “Bad forecast they don’t know anything” and “government made people evacuate for no reason”. Sad how backward things seem to be these days.

    • thebigweasel

      Limbaugh, who broadcasts from the Miami area, announced that he was not going to be on the air for several days “for security reasons.” Even now he can’t admit he has a giant storm coming up his butt because that would be admitting it wasn’t normal weather.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I found that funny, reports were he had been “preaching” that the media was over reacting to the storm and it was’t that big of a deal. Some of his followers were complaining about people buying up the gas and filling up extra cans and what a waste it was etc. Now he bailed and I’d bet many of his followers are left dumbfounded in FL and now debating if they should be leaving.

        • malnino

          Other than those folks – who for health or logistical reasons, God bless ’em – who couldnt leave, anyone who refused to heed the warnings, which were given with ample time beforehand, denied the reports & forecasts and relied on that bloated POS to decide for their safety and welfare and decided to stay – you suckers deserve what you get.

    • Thunderstorm

      Should make landfall on Cuba and then make sharp turn to the north. Will definitely slow foreword speed while making the turn so Cuba gets it for a longer time.

      • cthenn

        Well now that the track is more Westerly, you have armchair experts saying “I knew all along this storm wouldn’t turn that sharp directly over Miami”. Heaven forbid the model may not have predicted the exact path a week ago.

    • tomocean

      It seems like it is actually worse for the state if it does move to the west. The northeast quadrant of the storm is where the strongest winds are and it would put it would put the most populated areas of the state (along the east coast) directly in line with those. Those 145MPH winds are sustained winds. There are still reports of gusts to near 200MPH in the storm. Unless it miraculously weakens and/or completely misses the state, I’m not sure that the outcome will be anything but devastating.

      • Nathan

        well, earlier runs were putting like 180mph NE quadrant eyewall literally directly over Biscayne Bay, and then maintaining that buzzsaw straight up the coast to Georgia. Now they’re pointed much more toward the Keys/Everglades and the system falls apart faster as it moves over the Peninsula. I do think it’s a pretty significant difference.

        • tomocean

          I don’t think anyone is saying that it isn’t a good thing that it has dropped from a Cat 5 to a Cat 4 storm, but Florida does not offer much in terms of terrain to quickly weaken the storm. In fact, it appears as though it may remain a hurricane all the way up the peninsula.
          I don’t want to be an alarmist, but to lessen the threat that a storm of this strength and size poses would be folly at this point. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/473170af5c27473202f1f96d7a9dbc6f4e0a3ff98cd2068c9378997a11128066.jpg

          • Nathan

            Nowhere in my comment do I suggest one is worse than the other, I’m just reporting literally what models are showing now vs. yesterday night. My conclusion was “it’s a pretty significant difference”, which it is. 180mph along the entire east coast vs. 140mph and decreasing overland is a significant difference. I don’t see why this is so controversial…

            So now we’re at a Level V worstest worse case scenario instead of a Level XI worstestest worse worstest times infinity plus one case scenario….?

          • tomocean

            No controversy. A western track for a storm this strong and large is not better for Florida than a storm that skirted the east coast of the peninsula (except for the people in Georgia and South Carolina; it’s way better for them.)
            Actually, all of this is really nothing more than weather geeks nerding out, because Rusty Rails is correct. To quote the NHC: “The precise moment of this turn is still uncertain, and that is why NHC emphasizes that nobody should focus on the exact track of the center.”

    • Rusty Rails

      Hanging on every run’s wobble is a kind of pointless until Saturday, but tracking inland slightly is not actually a good thing.

    • Jeff

      Almost does not matter at this time if it is a cat 4 or 5. Even if Irma is a cat 3 at landfall, there will still be a high level of destruction. Everyone should evacuate no matter what.

      The hurricane force wind field, size of the maximum wind field and eye are more important than max wind speed to the size of the storm surge as well as the total area of damage. Irma’s wind field is expanding with the EWRC – really bad news in my opinion.

      Even the estimated 15-20 foot storm surge for Katrina was a massive underestimate. There seemed to be a thought that Katrina was going to be not so bad right as a cat 3/4 before landfall, even from the best. I do not think that anyone is going to make that mistake again with Irma.

      “New Orleans will not suffer large loss of life from Katrina.”
      https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/katrinas-weakeningworst-missing-new-orleans.html
      https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_details.asp

      https://youtu.be/-Kou0HBpX4A

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)
    • thebigweasel

      Hmmm.
      “These live webcams take you to beaches, parks and walking districts, making you wish you were in Miami right now!”
      Not so much, really.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)
  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    With all due seriousness to Irma, we have our own changing weather here in SoCal from Saturday nite thru Monday. With the cut-off low now forecasted to move to a position off northern Baja and HP over the Great Basin, a perfect scenario is evolving for an outbreak of showers/storms. The tropical moisture will be wrapping around the CoL from NW Mexico and the Gulf, instability parameters peaking on Sunday aftn, we could be in for a good show. Again, I’ve been disappointed too many times to count over the years but this one looks promising.

    Famous last words.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Looks like the cut-off low/easterly wave scenario I was mentioning a couple days ago is likely going to play out the way some of us would like it too… All models have keyed in on this being one of those exclusively coastal showery/thunderstorm outbreaks. The easterly wave propagates WNW & then is further pulled into the northwestern quadrant of our friendly cut-off low currently setting up shop for the next 5+ days off Pt. Conception. This occurrence plays out right over the SoCal bight & drifts west then moves north along the central coast and possibly further north later on. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/68762cdf1d76edb04d41b307b64bffeaf41be1cdfe56d5668cf6dc0edd4dca8c.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6dbf49d4d16f44e55854e19a6b5cbe1a0bbeaaacabe182a6b786b7b1805b5f2f.gif

  • Sokafriend

    Why is there so relatively little rain associated with Irma?

    • RunningSprings6250

      It’s going 180MPH sideways.

      • Sokafriend

        :))

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I think she is a relatively fast mover.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Exactly. This isn’t like Harvey, which stalled and dumped for days. Irma is a determined woman, and I’ve been watching her since she formed. The steering of the eye is eerie, human like, avoiding any large islands that could impede its strength. It’s like it’s on a mission to take out Florida. I swear, between Harvey and now Irma, I wonder if the US of A is getting the message? Nature is furious, and we ask why?

        The answer, is blowin’ in the wind –

  • DelMarSD

    Looks like there is some elevated convection over the area today.

    • RunningSprings6250

      We had sprinkles.

      • Sokafriend

        Me, too. I counted 15.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yep anywhere east to LA county & the San Gabriels.

  • Bartshe

    Anyone recommend a source for easy-to-understand, no-nonsense storm surge graphics for Florida regions? NOAA info is rather difficult to parse.

    • As far as I can tell, they don’t exist. I have had difficultly finding even hard-to-parse, storm-specific graphics (most are for generic scenario/hazard mapping purposes). I would be pleased if someone can prove me wrong…

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I was watching the weather channel last night, and they had extensive coverage of areas, especially around Miami/Biscayne Bay that showed what various depths are expected to flood with the storm surge, broken down to zones. Those is the danger zones, are required to evacuate, mandatory, especially around high rises in flood zones. They warned if people stay, and ignore the evacuation order, they can’t expect emergency assistance if they should need it.

      The WC coverage of this is intense and urgent, as it should be.

      https://weather.com/

      • CHeden

        The vast bulk of Miami proper is less than 6-7 ft. above sea level.
        If a foot of rain falls (with Miami being on Irma’s NE flank), where’s all that water going to go? I hope their pumps are all in 100% working order.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          I saw a segment on some TV show where during high tide, water comes into the streets of some area of MI. High tide…. There may be coral growing on the bus benches by next week!

    • Looks like maybe Homestead 2.0

  • Fairweathercactus

    What is interesting is if that Hurricane tracks a bit more West it looks like it could push the ridge back towards us again after that low leaves. I would not be shocked at all.

  • AlTahoe

    Day two of my 4 day Staycation and it is pouring here in South lake with hail. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7a2c56cd0b0011876faca692452f54d4a05031225a026ce2d09611f771377e61.png

    • AlTahoe

      Wow this storm is insane. Large hail

    • Cap’n

      I’m in Incline today, everyone is wondering where Al is! I can see the sky darkening to the south, send some this way.

      • AlTahoe

        Still dumping and hailing. Luckily I got my mountain bike ride in this morning. I was on my way to the beach on my bike when the storm started. Took refuge at mcduffs. When I get home I will post some good hail pics

        • Cap’n

          I’m monitoring from the Incline library. That sucker was training over you for a solid 30 minutes. Now it is a big blob of red in the middle of the lake, we’ll see if the cold water hinders it’s arrival over here. Sky looks like it could open up at anytime over here.

    • You can’t win for losing. :))

  • cthenn

    Jose now only 5MPH less windspeed than Irma. Be glad it’s predicted to eject northeast before it gets to the US coast…

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Another thing to worry about with this incoming hurricane for Florida is; that they’ve had a very wet summer rainy season. They accumulated above average rains since June. The ground is saturated, especially the west coast. Putting 8 to 12 inches of rain from Irma on top of this is going to be catastrophic. What misery awaits the Floridian’s…

    • They are trying to pump as much as they can out of Lake Okeechobee to hopefully have enough room. There are engineered levees that probably won’t fail like in NOLA, yet overtopping could be likely.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Looks like an atmospheric river is setting up for the Pacific NW. Ho boy.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/77b6b275c2913f8ec4f298e2b63d4b05899a335ee411d4127cdaee5ae6329613.jpg

    • Dan the Weatherman

      They could use some rain in that part of the country, as there have been many wildfires in the region stretching from BC down to Oregon and Norcal.

  • molbiol

    Meanwhile here in California: Very unstable air just to our southeast. Hopefully the cutoff low this weekend will be able to tap into some of this…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9ac7d06675735a3161a0ccde0aa40bd6b7e79bd0c36a386e17454b69926591d7.jpg

  • Cap’n
  • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

    This seems like one long band of thunderstorms stretching from San Felipe all the way to interstate 40! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dea35807832d22716d6975ff717300c6a16381f1aa43d095fe8447683b9a4209.png

  • CHeden

    Latest NHC track for Irma gives Miami a 30-50% chance of experiencing sustained hurricane force winds…with higher gusts….which is sorta good news given that Miami at one point was looking at 120mph winds. While still potentially a major threat to life and property, it looks like the rainfall and surge will be the main impacts there….assuming Irma’s track follows expectations.
    Lastly, Irma’s track is far from being a done-deal as she has yet to make the northern turn (and possibly briefly slow down/stall out just off/over the Keys?).
    An earlier turn of only 6 hrs could bring Irma’s track back to the east.
    As a result of the uncertainties, I think the experts/authorities are doing a good job in downplaying the precise track…instead focusing on the bigger picture that it is going to be awful everywhere in Florida for the next 48-72hrs and beyond.

  • Fairweathercactus

    2 things to note about So Cal weather I have noticed.

    1. The NAM keeps it mostly a mountains and desert event.
    2. The GFS has been over predicting moisture all season. Nearly every event has panned out poorly. It shows the most moisture again.

    • Unbiased Observer

      Such a breath of fresh air as always….

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Everything really hinges on exactly where that cutoff low sets up shop on Sunday. We all know cutoff lows can do the unexpected.

  • CHeden

    Here’s good look at our low. IMHO, it looks like it’s trying to cut off a bit further north and east than we thought. If the low does decide to take up residence this close to the coast, the mountains (at least) should experience a significant uptick in activity. Plus, note the juicy air/wave moving into far SE Calif. Seems a bit more robust at this hour than I was expecting…and the track brings the best moisture and dynamics right up the spine of the Sierra.
    Anyone have another opinion/comment to share?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba030c1bafd8517690ab170056091891dcd8231d5ae181c1eae0b5ee980d8c28.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      It all depends, like it always does, on the position of our lovely and loving,,, dome of high pressure. I’d sure like to see your scenario play out.

    • Jim

      Based on your observations, how does it look for the Monterey Bay area?

      • CHeden

        Depends in what timeframe. In the near term, the low has little dynamics associated with it, and what storms there are, are thermally/orographically driven. Over the weekend, the models want to shift the low SSE (to what extent is what I’m questioning) before lifting the low back to the NE over the coast along with a juicy and unstable airmass along with the best T’storm chances for Monterey and environs. So, while convective chances are at least 50-50 for next week, exactly when is still quite undetermined.

        • Jim

          Thank you sir !!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      NWS Oxnard expecting PW around 1.5″-1.6″ across SoCal, which is less than last weekend when Lidia’s remnants moved through, but they’re expecting more favorable Cape values over the area. Hope we see some coastal action in addition to the Mts/Deserts.

      • CHeden

        I saw the same “official” read from the NWS.
        The lower TPW’s are an issue, but then again, the low will likely be in a different location than with Lidia…and not particularly tracking out to sea.
        So, what’s yer gut feeling, given that we still don’t know where the low will end up? Inquiring minds want to know.
        LoL!

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          I am seeing a field of mid-level moisture moving overhead right now, so things are moistening up at least in the mid levels in advance of the Low, but my gut is that the local Mountains, Deserts and some select inland areas with favorable convergence boundaries will see some action, but my house will end up being in the dry zone yet again, and so will Fairweathercactus, and he’ll complain about it here. 😉

          • CHeden

            Thanks!
            I can rest easy, now.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      If the low does cut off in time for that moisture to begin to pivot around NE, side, we may see some good stuff this weekend for sure. That’s a pretty prominent area of elevated moisture in that IR.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        NWS San Diego has a 40% chance of showers / t-storms for Orange County for Sunday.

  • AlTahoe

    Rode home in a 2 minute break between storms. Had hail the size of grapes and at least 2″ of rain so far. Everything is flooded

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    The sun is finally trying to come out now. The clouds have been thick and dreary all day. Was not expecting this.

  • AlTahoe

    This pic was from earlier. Temp is currently 51F with about 3″ of hail on the ground. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b57317fbd978557a583d42ab7226323aa6a5c4ad12a64dd9360a044f0dcfacad.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      PB & Jelly!!

      • AlTahoe

        Still just dumping rain
        Between this storm and the freak one we had a month or so ago
        We might be at around 5″ of rain for this summer

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Nice!

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      Wow @AlTahoe got sum!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Wow I saw someone reports that SLT was under some serious storms.

    • AlTahoe

      I have never seen training of storms this long over south lake before. Dumping and hailing still for almost 4 hours now

    • Thunderstorm

      Fire season over for Tahoe!

    • TheNothing

      I’m enjoying that picture from the comfort of my hot #@$ computer room with sweat dripping down my face.

      • AlTahoe

        Lol. I am on the front porch and my fingers are numb. I can see my breath and it lingers for a while. Temp is down to 49F now

    • Cap’n

      Yee Hah! Just getting your left overs here at Donner Lake at the momment, wonder about Mathew to the east. Poured pretty good on 89 from Tahoe City north.

      Edit: dumping, we’ll see how long…

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Looks like the West Shore of Tahoe is getting hammered currently. Also a fire at Sunnyside….not sure if related or not.

    • CHeden

      Great look.
      Must have been awesome getting trapped by this thing!

  • Thunderstorm

    For the south bay area at least enough moisture for some rare cumulus towers by Mt. Hamilton. Upper air flow is from the SE.

  • annette johnson

    Nice cluster of storms moving up the Colorado River. Looks like Yuma and Blythe are getting some action. Skies are dark on the California side of Lake Havasu so hopefully we will see some rain too.

    On another note, some friends came in a half day early (yesterday a.m.) from a cruise in the Bahama’s (should have been a full day but that’s another story). Their flights were cancelled in Miami, so they were able to rent a large SUV to get to Atlanta. My friend said FHP was absolutely amazing and efficient in controlling the traffic during the mass exodus. They will be greatfully boarding their Vegas bound flight in a bit.

  • I was looking at a map of the FL Keys. That area looks like it’s going to get hit real bad now. I wonder already how much will be rebuilt. It was a VERY long and slow drive out to Key West from Miami.

    • PRCountyNative

      Good question.