California’s searing summer to continue; active East Pacific could bring tropical “slingshot”

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 23, 2017 4,011 Comments

An exceptionally hot summer so far

Daily maximum (and average) temperatures have been exceptionally warm across nearly all of California so far this summer. (Via WRCC. Please note that proposed funding cuts will eliminate all WRCC data access in 2018.)

Despite a mild spring across most of California, summer 2017 has been truly searing across most of California away from the immediate coastline. Numerous, prolonged heatwaves have brought an extended period of well above-average temperatures at the height of summer, with temperature falling to around average for only brief periods. There has been an exception to the unrelenting heat in California’s interior: regions within 5-10 miles of the Pacific ocean have experienced greatly muted effects from these heatwaves, as they (so far) have not coincided with periods of strong offshore flow. Still, ocean surface temperatures have started to rise in response to persistent heat and weak coastal upwelling–and even the beaches have started to experience anomalously warm temperatures in recent days. This is especially true in Southern California, where SSTs into the 70s in some spots have greatly curtailed the typical seabreeze circulation, raised surface humidity into uncomfortable territory, and have prevented overnight temperatures from falling much below 70 degrees.

A persistent ridge has brought relentless heat to much of the American West since the beginning of June. (NCEP via ESRL Plotter)

What’s causing this extreme inland heat and unusual/uncomfortable SoCal humidity? An unusually persistent ridge has developed somewhat to the west of its typical summertime position over the Desert Southwest, which has favored the occurrence of numerous heatwaves across the CA interior. It has been an exceptionally hot summer so far across the entire American West–not just California–though in recent days a robust monsoonal moisture surge has moderated temperatures across Arizona and Nevada. This ridge is not located quite far enough west to bring very hot coastal temperatures, although it has acted to inhibit the northwesterly winds that normally induce cold water upwelling along the coast and has thereby caused coastal SSTs to rise and overnight coastal temperatures to creep upward.

 

Increasing monsoonal influence; rising heat

An upper low will be in a favorable position for higher elevation thunderstorms across NorCal today and Monday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Unfortunately, it appears that this pattern over the next 10+ days will bring more of the same–more heat, and rising humidity–though there will be the potential for some interesting weather at times. As of this writing, an upper-level low pressure center was located off the coast of Northern California, and is expected to move slowly inland through Monday. As it does so, sufficient moisture and elevated instability exists over much of the NorCal interior for potentially widespread thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday across the higher terrain. While much less likely, some isolated storms could occur over the Central Valley or North Coast region given the presence of a somewhat moist airmass. The potential for widespread lightning–even if much of it occurs with wetting rains–is a significant fire weather concern, given the existence of numerous large wildfires already throughout California and the lack of firefighting resources available to address new fires.

Yet more strong, California-focused anomalous ridging is in the forecast. NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com

Early this week, a stronger push of monsoonal moisture will also move into Southern California. Mountain and desert thunderstorms are a good bet, and there is also a slight chance of storms all the way to the coast. There is still pretty dramatic inter-model disagreement regarding the westward extent of this moisture in SoCal on Monday and Tuesday, which could mean the difference between unremarkable conditions and a pretty active weather period. At this point, it’s not clear which scenario will win–though it’s worth noting that the global models have done an especially poor job simulating westward monsoonal moisture incursions so far this summer. While such events are always difficult to simulate given California’s position at the far western margin of the monsoon region and the highly stabilizing effect of a relatively cold nearby ocean, it seems that the extreme persistence of anomalous West Coast ridging mentioned earlier has inhibited what otherwise might have been more impressive events so far this year.

Very hot weather likely to return across all of the West in coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Regardless of the degree of monsoonal moisture that overspreads California, however, there seems to be agreement that the ridge will re-strengthen over California–and that well above-average temperatures will return later this week after a brief lull.

 

 

 

 

Eastern Pacific extremely active; a tropical “slingshot” possible
Later this week and into next weekend, all eyes turn toward the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This region has recently been producing an exceptional number of tropical cyclones (i.e. tropical storms and hurricanes), and activity is actually expected to further increase in the coming days. Unlike recent storms, which have headed almost due westward into the remote Pacific, additional tropical development over the next 7-10 days is expected to take a more northwesterly track. This will potentially put several decaying hurricanes/tropical storms in a position that has historically been favorable for the advection of moisture into California from the south/southwest.

“Fujiwhara” interaction between two East Pacific hurricanes could “slingshot” tropical moisture toward California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Intriguingly, the GFS has been consistently suggesting the potential for a very unusual interaction to occur between two of these East Pacific tropical cyclones later this week. The animation below shows what is known as a “Fujiwhara interaction” between two such storms west of Baja California, in which two tropical cyclones move close enough to one another to influence each other’s circulation and begin to rotate around a common center. As this occurs, storm motion can become highly nonlinear and very hard to predict, and occasionally results in the smaller storm being “ejected” from the broader gyre in “slingshot” fashion. For what it’s worth, I can’t personally recall a model forecast calling for such an event to occur so close to California (it’s more common in the West Pacific, where typhoons are quite common).

What does this mean for California? At this point, it’s hard to say–tropical influences in California weather are always hard to project more than a few days in advance, and this is doubly true with the potential for such an unusual multi-storm interaction as discussed above. But it does appear there is a pretty good chance that tropical moisture (perhaps complimented by enhanced monsoonal moisture under stronger southeasterly flow) will eventually make it to California in the 5-10 day period. The most direct consequence of this will be a potentially dramatic increase in humidity–which may make the upcoming heat even more miserable. This moisture, however, will also make mountain/desert thunderstorms likely, and may bring a risk of showers/thunderstorms even to coastal areas. There are presently no  indications that a tropical rainfall event as substantial as that associated with the remnants of Hurricane Dolores in 2015 is in store–but the situation certainly does bear watching. All in all, it appears that the next couple of weeks have the potential to become pretty interesting by California summer standards.

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  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Forecast For the Next Week is below average by 4-7 degrees:
    Monday: 74 F
    Tuesday: 76
    Wednesday: 77
    Thursday: 77
    Friday: 77 F
    Saturday: 77 F
    Sunday: 76 F
    Monday: 74 F
    Excited for this cool down here as it seems like only places close near the ocean have had a below average summer and escaped the worst heat

  • Craig Matthews

    Sure would be nice to hear from our Susanville poster right about now. Looks like dark red cells have been training over the Susanville area over the last hour or so…

  • Charlie B

    We ran into this near Chilcoot on the way back from Graeagle. The streets in Reno were wet, which is circumstantial evidence of recent rain) (which I missed. There was another big fire east of Sparks.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bd04ffc59f63db841b28d714b1c9a73b29dfb0538a44a4a41b80538b2323f960.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Sounds like that fire is growing at a fast pace.

    • Pfirman

      Fire east of Sparks makes me wonder about the fire around Burns.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Beautiful build ups over the Sierra looking east from Davis this afternoon — action zones appeared to be plentiful and widespread — meanwhile in the GCV southeast of Davis, these guys are about to pop https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/285920edffec7cbce182bf662e92646fa997169bdc57e10a16d30600eba4aebb.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      sunflowers?

      • Yolo Hoe

        Yep

        • Pfirman

          And here I thought it was your minions showing obeisance.
          I must say I had a weird moment looking at Berryessa Gap and reading about buildups over the Sierra.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Sorry about that pole shift — should have snapped one of the eastward view to balance things.

            Enjoying this evening’s nice breeze?

  • Craig Matthews

    Outflow boundaries coming from 3 different directions down into the Redding basin area(especially down the Shasta drainage). Should be some good North Valley thunderstorms next few hours. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7680a0b47e10bda2ee90a68720805450a5dfbec4a54dab8c1024beec9fa5031d.jpg

  • Chris

    Small microburst looking southwest from Glenbrook on Lake Tahoe’s east shore.
    I watched the rain and hail fall from the sky about 10 miles away then fan out.
    Then I saw a “wall” of dark blue water approach as the winds suddenly blew to 35-40mph.
    This is a pic from my live video. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b83a0ba5b3b40bd801a6d8b02d666df16bb77b44795d7737d8616036dae4754a.png

    • Pfirman

      I guess a nano microburst would be a raindrop.

  • CHeden

    Been enjoying a really nice convergence line that started forming about 3 hrs ago. Started out as just a few Cu puffs, all lined up. Within 20 mins, the early towers were starting to form, and convection to me north started backfilling south into the far north Valley. From my place, have been seeing very occasional lightning underneath. With the loss of insolar heating, things are quieting down now…but hopefully a few hits in the darker evening skies would be nice.
    Here’s the best of several bolts I captured between Anderson and Redding. Looks like some decent downpours up there, but not a drop for us. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b52c77650d634172507faaa9091adf2c8f1e0b569ed582d4bbd9fca99fce79f7.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      Nice lightning capture. Glad you get to experience that. Did you get a windshift to the north in your area around the time this event unfolded?. On the satellite it looked like there was a primary outflow boundary that pushed down toward the Shasta drainage toward the North Valley from 2 thunderstorm complexes to the north, one around the Trinity Alps, and another thunderstorm complex around and east-southeast of Mt Shasta. Once the outflow boundary made it to about Shasta Lake, it interacted with another boundary lined from east to west across the Redding area, where a sudden explosion of convection occurred along that line. Don’t really know for sure if that is what Really happened, but sure looked interesting from the satellite, especially how convection suddenly fired around the Redding area. But sure interesting to hear from your observation of how the storms backfilled south into the north valley.

      • CHeden

        This afternoon, about an hour or so before the first clouds started to form along the “Anderson convergence line”, my wife noted the temp dropped from 98F to 91 in less than ten minutes. At the time we were perfectly windless. Then, after about 1/2 hour, temp rapidly increased again to 97 and remained there….again with no wind…so some type of a surface reflection preceded the convergence line’s formation by about a half hour. There are/were storms surrounding the entire north Valley, but all have been virtually stationary for hours. In the last 1/2 hour, we’ve had a light breeze from the south which I suspect are just weak downdrafts from the overhead cell(s) starting their evening collapse.

        • Craig Matthews

          Interesting how the Anderson convergence line gets active like that even with different flow patterns. You are in such a good spot there. …. I texted my friends in Whiskytown. Looks like they had a cell almost stationary by them for at least an hour so.

          • Pfirman

            Did they also experience the weird temperature swings?

        • CHeden

          Reanalysis shows the southerly breezes may have been due to cyclonic flow and not downdrafts.

  • CHeden

    Here’s something you don’t see every day. Check out the shadow effects from a tower over the coast range just to my west. The pics don’t do the colors justice. Easily the nicest sunset of the Summer by far. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de8ef8ce34e69439efb5adba3da09fca636cbf0c60d9a3c5a3ef7fc9ea93ae65.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/431739473e77ac6c13aad2f09b78a2fcce2e27a09bd5fa1bd2304561cd5fe140.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61df21770006203adf80edd3745591342ddb4c502917bb945b52d3dc635d0ee6.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
    • alanstorm

      I for one, would like to welcome said cool down, aka “seasonal norms”, & hope it sticks around.

  • AlTahoe

    Our first morning with temps in the 40’s in quit awhile. Yesterday’s storms finally scoured out the tropical air. Temp is currently 45F

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I am sure many trees (and peoples gardens) appreciated finally seeing some rain after a month or more of nothing. As @mattmlTruckee:disqus had noted last night, nice to get the pollen washed out of the air too.

  • CHeden

    The upper low responsible for initiating yesterday’s activity is now NE of Redding. As a result, our mid-levels have dried out and we’re completely clear…a departure from yesterday’s P/C skies at this same time. However, according to the NWS, the low is not going to eject, rather retrograde back to a position just off the NW coast. In the process, another round of convection is probable in the mountains surrounding the north Valley as the low makes it’s return visit. The HRRR, which totally missed yesterday’s explosiveness in it’s morning’s runs, is now showing a complex of showers moving down from the NNE over the southern Cascades and then over the far north Valley proper in the late afternoon….so a reprise of yesterday’s activity is certainly looking possible. The GFS is not picking up on this as yet…will have to wait for the 12Z run to see if it picks up on the shower chances.
    Here’s the HRRR 13Z run for today and later this afternoon. The low is well depicted as it begins it’s retrograde motion, then pushes the core’s cloud field right over Shasta and extending down to Red Bluff. Any remaining vorticity is going to make pinpoint forecasts nearly impossible, and as such local pattern recognition is going to be key to identifying where the greatest chance of convection will setup.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f320e44b8a7d247ce3e0d489ee291899ce4d3b515436ed15d1cfcec6b1dc9972.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c79f80de279d2339a0965dc7b883f0dfa09e2f104bd3ace433b9495beedab443.jpg

  • Cap’n

    Wife reports .15 in the gauge since Friday, so pretty minimal, but an August total of almos 1.5″ mainly from the big storm that rolled through last week. On another note, she got a nice picture of a spotted owl (Strix Occidentalis) yesterday in Plumas National Forest. She has been doing weekend work surveying northern Goshawks.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2779e5d143293ad6e03f52d75a11a49402185eb71736e2c031ebbb9cdc583ada.jpg

    • CHeden

      Great pic.
      However, if I referred to my lovely spouse simply as “Wife”, I’d be wearing my computer monitor as a sunhat.
      Yup, the generational gap is alive and well at WW !!!!
      LoL !!!

      • Charlie B

        That is why I always refer to my gal as “The” wife.

        • CHeden

          Careful now.
          “The Wife” is still “object based”.
          At least this is according to my wife, who is reading this post as I write.
          (sound of kiss on the cheek and a pat on the head).
          Guess I’ll get dinner cooked tonight.
          (second sound of frying pan hitting head).
          Ouch.

          • Tuolumne

            Guess your post, and your head, got panned.

          • CHeden

            Apparently.

      • Cap’n

        She’s running the show. At home I’m simply referred to as “Hey You”.

        • CHeden

          LoL!!!! Thought so.
          A lot better than “**it-head”, I guess….a common term I’m sure that all met-freaks have had to deal with at one time or another when dinner-time gets delayed/eliminated…..girls included.

        • AntiochWx

          Hey you! out there on the road,
          always doing what you’re told, can you help me?

          • CHeden

            “And if the cloud bursts, thunder in your ear
            You shout and no one seems to hear”.
            Sound familiar?
            Both me and my wife talk all the time when nobody’s listening.

          • AntiochWx

            Haven’t you heard it’s a battle of words….Oh it does sound familiar, all too familiar.

  • CHeden

    Been musing over the amazing history of the low that’s still impacting California.
    Tough to believe that this low had it’s origins over a week ago as a monsoonal wave that first impacted SoCal last week, then drifting up the coast before tracking eastward towards Calif.
    It a way, the low has followed a similar track/direction that the GFS had at one time depicted for the remains of Hilary. As it turned out, the westerly progressing wave/low over far SoCal displaced Hilary/Irwin to way off the coast, with the upper low replacing Hilary in the mean anti-cyclonic flow around western High Pressure. Here’s the 7-day satellite loop to illustrate. A nice primer on the unpredictability of our local weather scene, fer sure.
    http://www.iweathernet.com/satellite-images-and-loops/fast-7-day-satellite-loop

    • I was wondering/posted last week if a few things that were out there in the Pacific would interact with each other. I guess they did?

      • CHeden

        Maybe not as much as you’d think. The pattern, while interesting, is actually pretty stagnant. Other than the meanderings of ridges and troughs, almost all the best activity has been locally generated. This general “stagnation” in the mean flow(s) is why the current low has hung on for so long.

        • Thanks. You and a select handful of others are my short range ‘go to’s’ here.

          • CHeden

            T’anks!
            Glad to be able to contribute my two-cents worth…and even a plug-nickel (or three).

  • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

    Looks like Northern AZ is getting a break from the monsoon until the weekend. Got soaked in Williams last weekend. I believe the rain totals are tracking over average as we near the halfway point of the season. Cool and rainy in August. Here’s the clouds building, with the mighty I-40 in the background. Flipping for rain!
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6db5f5fdd6e9c4b6e39076be51e01cf862673ba8ced50498380aca6e076992ee.jpg

    • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)
      • CHeden

        Thanks fer the data grab. With Tucson reporting the wettest July on record, it looks like the monsoonal effects are indeed quite widespread over all of Az and the environs.

        • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

          Now I’m curious to see if the remnants of Franklin get pulled into the monsoonal flow late in the week.

          • CHeden

            Something to watch for. Depends on the SW ridge location.

      • AntiochWx

        Any correlation with wet monsoon and rainy west coast winters?

    • annette johnson

      Awesome, looks like the kids are having fun! How do you like it so far?

      • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

        We’re having a GRAND time.

        • annette johnson

          Lol!

  • SW lightning strike density for last 7 days. BTW this NOTHING compared to what Oklahoma has experienced in the last 24 hours. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3bea435060e00440a99cc6da1f977fdf583eb02109f60ceaf1d8abb7278b0c5.png

    • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

      Can confirm, living under one of the purple areas. Much lightning!

  • CHeden

    Current radar loop shows the NE Calif complex holding together as it drives SW. Thinking of taking a ride up highway 299 to intercept. Could be interesting to chase this complex once it gets some serious heat/lift later this afternoon.
    https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=MAX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

    • alanstorm

      Been watching that. Wondering if the trajectory will hit the Yolla Bollys & spill into Willits

      • CHeden

        Hmmm….an interesting possibility. With a possible cyclonic circulation advecting that way, depending on the exact path, I can see the possibility of either elevated NE and/or lower/mid-level SW flows developing over the ridge/Yolla Bollys…so yes, I’d agree there is a chance something may drift down off the hills, or even a chance a storm or two fires up in-situ away from the crest.
        Forecasts have showers and possible convection making it’s way all the way out to the coast up by Arcata, but that may be too far north of Mendocino.

        • alanstorm

          Eastern Trinity got .31″ yesterday, and a pounding of hail, much to the horror of the many pot-growers out there.
          Hail can denude half grown pot of it’s leaves

          • CHeden

            Good point.
            We can only hope that it was an illegal cartel grow.

          • matthew

            This is their final year in business so they may as well start adjusting to that reality sooner rather than later.

  • Thunder98

    It drizzled this morning

  • Fairweathercactus

    What a strange pattern on the GFS today.

  • CHeden

    WV is confirming the southern edge of the retrograding trough now extends south to near the Red Bluff/Chico line. As the day wears on, whatever activity that does fire up will be within/north of this line. ATTM, something is trying to get started near Lassen, but the smoke and haze is limiting my view so I can’t tell if it’s convective or not. Going to stay with my original hunch, and take a jaunt up I-5 to near Mt. Shasta City or Dunsmuir then make a call from there. Will post more later. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea31a1dce13f292089c362271138f8626d4ce780764e6de5196455277b7793df.jpg

    • CHeden

      Current VIS satellite shows possible activity near Lassen starting to fire up already, and it’s not even noon. To the north, a compact cyclonic circulation is still evident, with the complex drifting WSW (as expected). https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5fa0a4d290ad502217a41b215693b3795f27e0bc127131e4808ef70a7d913e35.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for the info. Is the smoke from Oregon?

      • CHeden

        No. Mostly from the north Valley Minerva fire as well as from the Modoc complex to our NE.

    • alanstorm

      Some pretty big build-up way out to my NE, probably Yolly Bollys, high tops coming into view.
      I’ll give it an hour or so & post a pic when I take a work break.
      Could see some action here…

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Finally, after weeks of blistering heat and humidity I’m looking forward to some “cooler” weather here for SoCal’s inland valleys. Long range progs seem to indicate this prospect:

    From Oxnard:

    The GFS and the EC have changed their tune a little bit and now forecast a very static pattern for the 4 day xtnd period. The upper low and the upper high move little if at all and keep Srn Ca under dry SW flow for the duration. Hgts remain pretty constant at about 591DM through the period. Temps will change little from day to day and will be right at normals. There will be night through morning low clouds at the coasts but the vlys should be clear as the hgts are strong enough to keep the marine layer smooshed below the vlys.

    Both mdls forecast a humongous PAC NW upper low to move into WA/OR early next week and put an end to the stagnant pattern. If this were to come true it would become cooler and cloudier.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Although the warmest month of the year for my location. There are many examples of cooler temps in August. Last summer for example: July 2016: 90.0 w/ August 89.0 [which is average max for the month in this part of Los Angeles].

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        Living here in the SGV I cannot recall such a prolonged spell of 90+ heat and 50%+ humidity. It was becoming too much and prevented me from my normal outdoor recreation activities like golf and taking my boat out for some bass fishing.

        • thlnk3r

          90+ is not blistering. 110+ is blistering 😉

          Last week I thought it was mild considering all the hype about the “heat wave”. I’m in the IE as well and my station stayed around the mid 90’s.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            The heatwave was in the Pacific NW, not in Socal. Here we just had our standard heat that is typical for this time of year with muggy conditions along with it. Even this mugginess is normal for this time of year when we have an active monsoon pattern like we had last week. The mid 90’s in the IE that you experienced is also normal for this time of year.

          • AlTahoe

            The heat wave was around top 5 all time in the Pacific NW. The highs being shown on the computer models (Portland 110, Redding 120) never materialized. We still haven’t cracked 90F in South Lake Tahoe and this will probably be my first summer living here where we didn’t reach 90F or higher.

  • alanstorm
    • Yolo Hoe

      Amazing delta regarding cfs — Is this normal annual pattern? By chance, I was just looking at Eel River on some maps and wondering about this.

      • alanstorm

        Pretty much. Every winter guarantees the highest peak flow in the state at least once a year.
        The north/south flowing watershed in some of the rainiest parts of CA catches all the big AR events with maximum orographic lift. Wierd feature is 100 miles upstream it’s closer the the coast then it is near the mouth! (Leggett)
        Then, virtually no spring snowmelt contributes to a quick drop by June.
        However, since I’ve been observing/obsessing since grade school, & this last 3 yr historic drought period has seen it run dry (or under gravel) at the mouth by Aug, reflecting how dry this watershed still is, even after 2 big winters.
        The rapid receding after high flows recently reflects this as well.

        • Makes sense with what you are stating.

          Is there any info on 1975-77?

          Can CFS be measured under the river bed? (Sorry if that’s a dumb question)

          • alanstorm

            Funny you ask: I kept a binder of the Eel R flows when I was in grade school starting in 1977, a drought year!
            I’d call the recorded number DWR had on the payphone in the library, & jot it down.
            Disappointment dogged me those years, as there wasn’t a decent flood till ’86!
            They don’t officially rate the flow at the mouth (Fernbridge) as winter tides affect it & summer undergravel situation is mysterious I guess.
            Flows at the Fernbridge mouth are calculated:
            Scotia CFS, + Van Duzen R. CFS, + Yager Cr CFS, + alittle for various streams below Scotia= total Fernbridge CFS.
            (example: 752k cfs at Scotia = 950K cfs at Fernbridge in ’64)

          • Thanks I used to go to the library and get the monthly weather report for San Jose. Then I realized I could get it mailed each month for $2 I had to pay in advance. LOL
            Now a couple of clicks on ggweather. ?

        • Yolo Hoe

          Thanks — that is very interesting insight — and much appreciate the grade school obsession — growing up in the Ozarks, my turf was the Buffalo River, which became the first designated ‘national river’ — nice National Geographic article back in the 70’s — I think we grew up in similar places despite being 2000 miles apart

          • alanstorm

            Except you got the BIG thunderstorms over there. A few tornadoes as well…

          • Yolo Hoe

            Yes to both — there were a few camping trips in that beautiful river valley we were literally glad to make it through the night alive — absolutely incredible lightening strikes for hours that left us feeling like we’d survived a carpet bombing.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Prediction and maybe some evidence: Tropical moisture/ monsoon Moisture will return to CA by the last week and a half of August.

    Another thing to watch For Is the GOA’s And Troughs moving Into The Pacific Northwest past 200 Hours Pulling remnant Moisture From Hurricanes Into CA.

    • molbiol

      Not gonna happen. The monsoon is over for California. Arizona will likely see a couple of more surges but here in California, we are done for the summer. The synoptic scale pattern has completely shifted…and any tropical systems that develop will get pushed way out to sea.

      • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

        WAY too soon to call it “over”. Pattern could change in late August and September (the month that peaks for chances of summery-type rain in Southern California). In 2010, the coldest summer EVER in coastal Southern Calfiornia, the fog and gloom hung around all summer with most highs in the 60s and SST didn’t even break 70F once. Yet in late September, there was an epic outbreak of thunderstorms (by Southern California standards) making it all the way to the coast.

        • molbiol

          The subtropical anticyclone has completely collapsed and re-consolidated to the southwest. Also the NPAC block is beginning to re-assert itself and the overall E/W axis of subtropical ridging has slid south into Mexico. In other words, the pattern synoptically resembles fall. This has happened the past several summers in August and generally speaking, the pattern never reverts back. I’m not sure why this is the case since August and September used to be the peak opportunity for monsoon intrusions and easterly waves into California. I am willing to bet that we are done this year with almost 100% certainty. Hopefully a cut-off low will sneak into the area in late September and satisfy my thunderstorm fix.

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        and what makes you so sure that that this will happen

        • molbiol

          see below

      • David Mata

        Monsoon season is from early July through early September. The dry “offshore-flow” season doesn’t begin until mid-September.

  • alanstorm

    Buildup over eastern Mendocino Co sliding south.
    2 CalFire planes & a chopper went & took a look a half hour ago
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fee2a9a5e7142cf46d87217e0c6bb8caaa4c0ed6a4b3474f4975ff7c8b22cd1c.jpg

  • alanstorm

    & this one just popped up over Lake Phillsbury, Lake County bound… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c2f83189f61d2961fbae0cac04b40de01786559892e4aa29d26ad1be6a5686f8.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      Big daddy! Those cells are impressive on the west side of the Northern Mtns.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Very mushroom-esque — almost hen of the woods

  • matthew

    Another afternoon of boomers and rain. Not as severe as yesterday but the day is young.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Amazing how the area of where you are along the Maris Valley up to Prosser Dam seems to be hit almost every day and the Western side of Truckee really has only seen one day of real action with this round.

      • matthew

        Actually this is only the second time we have been hit this year. As I type the hail has arrived with a vengeance.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          I knew Prosser had a lot of action (89/267 area), I thought you had seen a lil more too.

          • matthew

            Those slid by just to the west of me. Hail is now up to pea sized.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Saw some good build ups again today looking east from Davis — not as impressive as yesterday, but there nonetheless — and there you were

  • CHeden

    Did the I5 to 89 to 44 loop. Figured I cover both the SW Modoc area and Lassen. 240 miles and not a single bolt. Lots of lightning on the radio, but all C-C. Cells just didn’t enough moisture to work with, plus drier air worked in from the SW that seemed to cap everything ~25,000′ starting around 2 p.m.
    Oh well. There’s always Fall to look forward to.

    • Craig Matthews

      Its not over yet.

    • alanstorm

      We had several strikes just east of Willits at about 5pm.
      If I’d have been in my easy chair at the house instead of up top working, I’d likely have seen the bolts.
      Heard the thunder, though

    • Thunderstorm

      Thursday may be your best day. Medford NWS says upper low comes back to north central California that day.

  • Wrangled (Stockton/Graeagle)
    • alanstorm

      I wanna pitch a tent right there at pic #1

      • TheNothing

        I got all excited when I saw that first pic too.?

      • annette johnson

        I would have to pick #3…there is just something about the sound of a creek nearby.

        • and buzzing mosquitoes ?

          • annette johnson

            I knew someone would bring that up?!

          • 2011 wasn’t a good year for hiking through meadows in late July. Dripping wet in DEET helped a little. It gave you time to swat them away.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Me too. Put on my water shoes and walk that creek!

      • Charlie B

        I’ll bring martini fixings.

    • Yolo Hoe

      I’m in — you really captured the distilled essence of a beautiful, beautiful place — somewhere, John Muir is smiling

    • CHeden

      Little man standing and clapping on the chair.

  • Thunderstorm

    Never made it to 70 today, too much smoke.

  • AlTahoe
    • matthew

      As @wrangledstocktongraeagle:disqus said below – it really does feel like spring up here right now. On my hike up Judah this weekend the water was still running off the snow drifts, the wildflowers were going crazy, and the temps were in the 70’s. It feels like we went from winter->summer->spring.

      Strange year.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    August looks better than july so far. Low to mid 90s are forecasted by the NWS for the next 10 days. I even see a forecasted 91 degree day. Hope it continues. 91 degrees will feel like 75 degrees because of how warm June and July have been. The days are getting shorter now which should help too. Really starting to notice the shorter days. It is almost dark at 8:30 now

    • Pfirman

      Sacramento just broke its record for consecutive days at ninety or higher. 41 days. Old record of 40 was set in 1992.
      Looking at the forecast it has a good chance to continue and smash the ’92 record, not just top it.
      Here in Woodland feels like the hottest summer I have experienced yet.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        I can’t recall the last time we were under 90 or even close to it. I remember a summer several years back that we set a record for the most consecutive days over 100 and back then it was very hot for two to three weeks. While I don’t recall this year having that intensity, the heat has been much longer in duration. My AC bill that just came for July is higher than anything I have received in the past three years. I was going to replant a field next month but decided to just wait to December because of the heat

        • Pfirman

          Only good thing I can say is nights and mornings have been more or less cool, relatively. And there is that bit about you said about shorter days.
          The one awful thing I can say is the Melta breeze. I miss the Delta. Are you too south to have it. I have felt it strong in Dos Palos back in the day, and so fun to have it come from the north instead of the south.

      • alanstorm

        Whoah. & I take it you’ve experienced a few more summers than I.

        • Pfirman

          Dude. Careful. Are you saying you slept through some?

          • alanstorm

            No. Im just jealous I was born too late for the ’64 Flood

          • Pfirman

            I was helping my uncle keep culverts clear on a twelve thousand acre ranch he was foreman of just east of Cloverdale. The Russian was a torrent.
            That was some rain.

      • Flyin_Pig

        Last time it failed to hit 90 here was June 13th. by my count that’s 56 days…kind of odd that we haven’t had any extremely hot days – it hasn’t hit 110 yet but we have had 15 days over 105.

        I’m in the lower Sierra foothills between Sonora and Oakdale.

        So ready for Fall!

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      The past few days have been amazing. Lot’s of nice cool breezes in the morning, and it actually falls below 80 by 8pm. If this is how August will be, I have no complaints.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Me too.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Well the GFS shows a a GOA low around 276 hours dropping into the PCNW and pulling rich hurricane remnant moisture right towards the Bay.

  • alanstorm

    “…both models have a 500mb trough from the Pacific NW by Monday….”
    -NWS Eureka
    God Speed

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Dan the Weatherman

      Both 6-10 and 8-14 Day Outlooks look much more fall-like than summer. The monsoon looks to really be suppressed especially during the 8-14 day time frame if this verifies.

      • jokingly….we will be in the middle of fall by September first. Winter begins in October with average rainfall for October Nov Dec. Another dry and warm spring starts in January…

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          I like the first part of the joke but not the part about an early spring. We have had cool and somewhat wet autumns but not too often.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Have you been checking the SST’s lately? They seem to be constantly changing in the Eastern Pacific. There is that really warm pool east of Hawaii that really heated up last week but that hot pool has shrunk. Now there is a cold pool north of it. Wonder what the SSTs will look like come winter?

        • Pfirman

          That is not funny. Well, maybe funny strange.

  • alanstorm

    Totally stationary Anvil buildup again today.
    Storm just to the left out of frame has multiple Lightning indicated. Could hear a slight rumble.
    (I know no one lives up here & I’m an over-poster, but hey, it’s a slow weather day)
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/369e7487d3dd289d1b3d29644cabe9311e3df1fd2f9084e56d94b84ed4ae59d7.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      That’s a classic right there. You getta front row seat too.

      • alanstorm

        Was pretty cool. Formed & reformed a total of 3 anvils & didn’t move.
        Probably tomorrow too. Hoping they will move westward & give me a rain shower, but I think the trend will be an onshore flow

  • Admode (Susanville)

    No way to accurately portray the build up surrounding and overtopping us right now with a pick. 1 boom and 2 drops so far. It’s all building up so fast! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05e4ab1aded9d3b45f20a623d9f6661d1d2a52b4a66c07970a4fa9e0866c8528.jpg

  • alanstorm
    • Admode (Susanville)

      Does red and green differentiate between ground strikes vs cloud to cloud? Also, can someone explain the difference between positive and negative strikes on maps like these? I could Google it but would rather pose it to y’all:)

  • Craig Matthews

    Haven’t seen the Northern Mtns kick off like this during the summer months in quite a while. Nice overshooting tops. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0e2086ce84ba7dea4478d340db4222946e79933f1647be85caa4a5056394d2d0.jpg

    • Thunderstorm

      Thursday is supposed to be much better.

      • CHeden

        That’s when our wobbling CoL makes it’s final pass over the area. Some impressive capes are showing up in the far north state up by Bombillo’s place on Thursday, but the soundings down my way still show D.P.’s way too dry in the middle layers to support any meaningful cloudiness.
        However, that being said, the activity that did fire up over the north Valley last Thursday had a similar profile only with slightly higher TPW’s and lower thickness. If any convergence line(s) sets up, it will be concurrent with the low actively tracking W-E to provide some extra forcing/lift….otherwise just another round of pop-up storms over the mountains.

    • CHeden

      The blow-off is cooling things down away from the cell’s core…so there really isn’t a widespread event going on. As was the case yesterday, most of the heavy stuff occurred around 1-3 p.m., and currently those cells that I can see are well past maturity. Can’t see the Trinity Horn or Yolla Bollys activity due to poor visibility.

      • Craig Matthews

        That strong cell west of Weaverville that blew up around 5pm, which turned from dark red to pink in color(65dbz) on the radar, died very quickly. There were 3-4 active “looking” cells per radar across the Northern Mtns when I got off work around 5pm, which had rather large overshooting tops in appearance per satellite as seen above. The actual precip shafts with these cells looked very isolated. But where these precip shafts occurred, there must have been quite a downpour of rain and hail…I would think? These cells were west of the crest of the Northern Mtns.

        • CHeden

          Agreed. Will be looking for some local reports to confirm just how much the dumps were. But as I said, away from the core’s, pretty much not much of anything. Weaverville and the Trinity horn seem ideally located for these type of SW flow patterns (until the low clears out).
          Much less glamorous, though interesting, was the thickness of the alto-stratus that shrouded most of the north Valley west of I-5. This cloudiness was the blow-off form cells east of Willits that you mentioned (and Alan). Somewhat surprised at how robust the SW flow aloft is/was.

          • Craig Matthews

            Yeah those were some thick blow offs…also…looked like some pretty decent shear over N.Sierra/NE CA judging from the narrow v shapes of the anvils over those areas.

    • alanstorm

      That lower left puffball was the one over me!

  • AlTahoe
  • Cap’n

    Buddy of mine took rid of Castle Peak Donner Summit today at 5:45, helluvah cloud.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/866d8c15ec970722b631d91f6b3e2e73964aea48dca253d163b6a76285b15be1.jpg

  • ben

    Just drove 299 from the coast, the smell of fresh rain on a parched landscape was glorious. I hope the Orleans complex caught some rain.

  • Nate

    Been getting a nice light show in Tahoe City from this guy for the past 20 minutes or so:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/96ab0dd1304b8f15837be0e10d12cd4bcec92e1bd767deff079a9df5b0db270a.jpg

  • Nathan

    Looks like BC will finally be getting some fire relief. What a total nightmare for them this summer.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Really interesting and easy to read article about the takeaways from the new climate report on climate change. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/08/climate/nine-takeaways-climate-report.html?smid=tw-nytclimate&smtyp=cur

  • Thor

    Since it is a relatively quiet weather day across CA and the West, I will post a couple of pics from MT. The afternoon showers have really backed off and now we are in a quiet pattern of normal temps (70s-80s) and hazy, smoky skies. Currenlty 25 active fires across the state that have burned about ~500,000 acres so far…

    some bubbly mammatus:
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6a9db8260b892525e5a36e0687169fd1f7f4317e87e84ced294b4720e5304db.jpg

    A “dry” thunderstorm.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f01f547a0e0d4a18f5efbdbabb972d78eac4a93cd32c30d4c70985e6d4a7bf3f.jpg

  • molbiol

    For those in the Reno, Tahoe etc..I hope to see some good pics and hear some cool reports later today as it is looking like a significant day today…..

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Sure looks like that is what the NWS is expecting too. Looks like the clouds are starting to build up around Truckee.

      • molbiol

        I just looked at the Reno webcam which faces south and it definitely looks like it could get interesting later today (I lived in Reno for a few years and can usually tell whether it will be active or not)…

    • matthew

      So far it has looked like the least threatening day of the week. Think I will go out for a round of golf. That should do it.

      • annette johnson

        Wash your vehicle when you are finished. That will really do it.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Driving through Sonora Pass today and can already see lots of building up occurring in the mountains and might drive through it, will see what happens!

  • Cap’n
    • Pfirman

      So you were in Stockton and I thought you bailed on taking 395. I was so wrong. Last time I went to Southland I took 395 after winding my way through Yosemite. I do have a friend near Bishop, so that was cool.

    • alanstorm

      I like it!

    • Charlie B

      I love baby boomers. Sometimes, however, they turn out to be petulant snowflake millennials who demand a participation trophy while producing nothing more than virga.

      • Cap’n

        Snowflakes, internet cowboys; same difference?

      • annette johnson

        Now THAT was good!

  • alanstorm
    • Pfirman

      Due north of Clear Lake and on into the Mendocino Nat. Forest. On the map it is exactly between Willets and Willows. Lake Pillsbury might get some runoff.

    • TheNothing

      Doppler showing intense hail in that cell.

      • alanstorm

        Pot farm freakouts 4 sure

  • AlTahoe

    Today isn’t looking to promising for the Tahoe area. There are no clouds from the west shore crest to the east side at all. Everything is East or north. Maybe we can get something later but we usually need some clouds in place by now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/38ba6ed152a5395a1ab08804b0dc8fcc6ff1712f750626e3facce4c42cdd7652.jpg

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    @disqus_USIci8FioR:disqus Are you seeing much of this action? Looks like it’s pretty much over Reno currently. Not good for Hot August Nights and the car “guys” sitting outside with their babies.
    https://twitter.com/KOLO8/status/895399419021062145

    • Charlie B

      I just walked outside (most people in my office think I am strange at times such as these.). Nice claps of thunder. I am in SW Reno, and as noted it seems the storms are tracking NE. It might miss me. I am holding out hope. The clouds, and radar, seem to be focusing on parts just north of me.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Hopefully you get in on the fun, looks like the area just east of Truckee is getting hammered too. NWS Reno issued a Flood Advisory around the Stampede Dam area.

    • Shane Ritter

      my wife at our bagel shop (wells&6ht down town) says its sprinkling. Here in Stead, it looks mighty dark, and theres some storms to the west that could come this way, currently over Stampede area. We have had several good thunderstorms here in stead in the last 7 days.

  • Cap’n

    Off and on rain bursts between Bridgeport and Walker with the best downpour yet as I gamble at Topaz Lake and blow my rent money.

    • AlTahoe

      The view of the lake from the bar in Topaz casino is sweet.

  • Shane Ritter
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Radar wise it looks like you’re seeing more and to the West it’s really getting hammered.

    • Cap’n

      Sunny in Gardnerville but it looks nuclear over west Reno from here.

      • cabeza tormenta

        How about ‘intense’ or something? to me at least nuclear means utter destruction and radioactive waste and other unpleasantness.
        Thunderstorms mean welcome rains, and of course unwelcome destructive winds and twisters at worst.

        • Cap’n

          Good point

          • cabeza tormenta

            Thanks on that, it might be a nitpick but I had seen other posters using it casually and it bothered me. .. looks like the dry westerlies take over soon. Hoping for some kind of mild monsoon drifting up from mexico before fall, Dry since late April in Placerville, perfectly normal.

  • Charlie B
  • alanstorm

    Severe thunderstorm warning on this one. Pretty much stationary, expanding into Lake County. Keeps morphing, reforming. Rumbles heard
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7bec157b4f24f27883d16a9ca7cfbbb2c6c7946bfe1bb385b4da731fbccbea49.jpg

  • alane777 .
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Thunderstorms have blown up everywhere from Mammoth north and east of the Sierras including all off the other Northern California ranges. Just missed out on this thunderstorm in Bridgeport https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/baa893df769fcbaa900b5f3a69769f56f030624bd548775de227295240c7db24.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Did we drive by each other?

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Drove on 395 for about 17 miles from Sonora Pass turnoff to Bridgeport around 4:30-5

  • Admode (Susanville)
  • Admode (Susanville)
  • Cap’n

    West Walker still flowing great for August. Lots of brief showers, some heavier, but I missed the big stuff. Rained steady from Reno to east Glenshire (the west side of Glenshire was dry right at the Strand), nothing west of there.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b04a4476452f256f0185eaf67bb89068c9db2f82e7ff8368e722f57923542eb.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8aff605966910655db8d1107f489f66d24bc007137aeb50f417234a969d962c0.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      The gorge-like area to the southeast of the town of Walker on HWY 395 is such a cool stretch of unique beauty and geology. Is your picture of that area? Nice to see the water still running fast.

      • Cap’n

        You’re exactly right. I’m not sure, but I’d estimate 5 or so miles south of Walker? I love that river and that stretch of drive.

        • Craig Matthews

          Thanks for sharing that picture, and the others of course. Did Topaz Lake look pretty high?

          • Cap’n

            It seemed pretty high, but to be honest I’m not too familiar with it’s normal levels as I only make that drive once a year or so at best. It definitely didn’t look low.

    • matthew

      Funny. I live up The Strand and it was bone dry my entire drive home (from the west). As I was driving I was thinking that it looked like it was dumping just to the east.

      • Cap’n

        I had to cut through your neighborhood as I was avoiding the agriculture stop due to the fact that I had a huge amount of kale and chard from my buddy’s garden, along with two unregistered firearms handed down to me (I’m registering them next week). Thug life.

        • matthew

          “Kale and chard”…and unregistered firearms. Uh huh.

          • Cap’n
          • Pfirman

            Don’t register. Ask any Portuguese guy.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Mmm, throw those greens in the blender, add some raw garlic, salt and whatever other seasoning you’d like, add water, liquify and then make soup. Raw kale is a little chewy for my palate, but it’s great in a variety of dishes if cooked.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Looks like you scored a few keys of the really good stuff

          • Thor

            your colon thanks you.

        • inclinejj

          Pssst, Buddy, Do you know where I can score some Kale and Chard.

  • Charlie B

    Went for a bike ride near Verdi. Pelted with rain then hail. Fortunately I was able to find refuge at the Sasquatch Bar and Grill. If it keeps up I might have to order another round.

    • alanstorm

      Bigfoot is a vegetarian, so grilled zucchini?

      • Pfirman

        So are gorillas and they poop about six times a day. One would think some unfortunate soul would have stepped in some by now and backed you up.

  • AntiochWx

    Last few days have been average to slightly above, the weather is finally enjoyable. One thing I have noticed is the lows have been slightly lower than forecasted, nice change of pace. Hoping the long range improves, I don’t want to see a rebuilding ridge again.

  • Thunderstorm

    Looked at several NWS sites on the west coast all a bit different. Have my own hunch from just looking at the outside conditions and what these conditions have brought in the past. Sky is very different this evening and wind has been stronger then normal this afternoon.

  • annette johnson

    Thought this was sort of interesting…Sunset Crater in AZ had the lowest temperature in the nation today at 31F, while 227 miles to the west along the Colorado River we were seeing 112F. About an 80 degree difference! Death Valley took top honors at 116F today, about 380 miles away.

    • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

      Not surprised here. Lowest temperature I have ever experienced was in Arizona. Minus 16 in the White Mountains of eastern Arizona, which was a nice ski day at Sunrise Resort on the Apache Reservation. Also have enjoyed a 120 degree day in Phoenix. I know there are temperature extremes elsewhere, but AZ is a land of extremes like California.

      • annette johnson

        No kidding. A person could comfortably snow ski and water ski on the same day in either state.

    • Nathan

      Wow, that can’t happen very often!

    • Phil(ontario)

      Extreme? How about Big Bear City, Ca, at 44* this morning, and Palm Springs currently sitting at 109*. A 65* temp difference a mere 34 straight line miles away.

      • annette johnson

        That is definitely more impressive. I just thought it was interesting because here we are roasting on the river in August and it is just hard to imagine weather that cold!

  • AlTahoe

    Today was one of the best setups for severe weather and nothing happened over Tahoe. Did get another good sunset photo from the tiki bar though. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f5cbadf0cf16bdce4be57e6ff34f0b9ede4ca3777a8d204161d99f7a11ae6df0.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Tiki Bar, orange’ish sky….sure you’re not in Hawaii enjoying some time along the Pacific?

      • AlTahoe

        Water Temp is 73F at that beach currently so it definitely feels like Hawaii

  • Fairweathercactus
    • Tuolumne

      Water, water, everywhere*
      Nor any drop to fall.

      *in the sky

  • Yolo Hoe

    57F and barometer steady at 29.86 — happy to say was third evening/night in a row of ‘typical’ Delta Breeze conditions here in Davis

    • Pfirman

      Amen again. Sweet stuff.

  • alanstorm

    Thunderstorms already rotating into the North Coast from this low finally moving thru. Lightning activity indicated just off Eureka at 7:30 am

    • Yolo Hoe

      Sharp eyes — you are dialed clearly in and tuned up this morning — the orographic induced weather outbreaks in NorCal have been so cool past several days — matching the ‘horizon views’ that folks like Pfirmin and I get from our flatlands bicycling vantage points with the pictures you guys are sending of the frontline action is a blast.

      • Pfirman

        Amen. The coast range has been mirroring the Sierra.

      • alanstorm

        Well, enjoy YH, looks like it’s done for now after today. I think yesterday was the peak.
        Maybe a wayward summer trough next week?

    • Chowpow

      We got a 3 hour + lightning show over the ocean seen from Arcata. Started right around 5am

      • alanstorm

        Rare for Eureka to have a summer thunderstorm come onshore.
        That usually doesn’t happen till winter with cold fronts.

  • mattzweck

    not much going on here in the high desert Lancaster area. just really hot. 104 yesterday i think the low was 75 when i went to bed.

  • Nate
    • Video is awesome! Pics are great.

      • Chris

        Sny remark in 3-2-1……
        All those thunderstorms pictured were in NEVADA??

        • Nate

          Well not ALL of them were…the first storm in the video and the one in the third photo formed and stayed within California.

    • alanstorm

      Nice post. Who says CA doesn’t get thunderstorms?

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Stunning buildups, I’m sure it was much more dramatic in person!

    • Craig Matthews

      That video was fantastic. Very fluid. Well done!

  • Chriscvk
  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Tweet by Michael Ventrice asking a good question in my opinion. Why are SSTs in the east pacific the only factor when deciding if we are in La Nina or El Nino?

    Shouldn’t we also make sure the atmosphere is following suit?

    https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/895634583286419456

    • It’s the Oceanic Nino Index. NOAA uses it and defines it that way. Nino3.4 boundaries are arbitrary to begin with. I think the way the atmosphere is responding is more important than the SSTA in NIno3.4. There’s another index that call the MEI that uses more components and Ventrice has used an Atmospheric Index to measure the atmospheric teleconnection.

  • Thunder98

    The Weather has been very boring in the past 6 days.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It sure has been boring in Socal this week. There has hardly been a cloud in the sky during the afternoons here in Orange.

      • Thunder98

        I’m ready for the fall and winter

  • annette johnson

    Looks like the monsoon is trying to make a comeback here in the southwest desert. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2a78e8a14b06293e8f6729686fb3e33ae9bb6
    27a0c1296f3453ff4ab2e89a884.png
    A fairly stationary storm has been brewing in southeastern San Bernardino county and it looks like Blythe has a nice big storm on it’s doorstep. Just wondering if it will cross the river. Some cloud pics I took to our northwest and south towards Blythe. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d9535e9a32cc50a9f96f847c36ad108b023aaec689c2c6f0b2639519dad4f2aa.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4edf0b890bdcd4aba55a3fdd500492e6da41d1847a5712e6a8a62e15bd7a8478.jpg

  • alanstorm

    More severe warning storms over the same areas of Trinity, Mendocino & Lake counties today.
    http://www.weatherstreet.com/city_thunderstorm_files/Ukiah-CA-95482-thunderstorms.htm

    • alanstorm
    • Pfirman

      Bipolar disorder or maybe just a Gemini.

      • alanstorm

        Or Pisces, 2 fish going opposite directions

        • Pfirman

          You had to bring up fish. Salmon? Opposite directions? If it’s extinction versus survival then I am on record for the latter.

  • alane777 .

    These storms seem to be hanging in there today. North and east from Konocti. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a7cd38da19a59828d3d52507e6714d19af1efc1b3c430cb66f8360fe07d50bac.jpg

    • alanstorm

      Dang!

    • alanstorm

      Here’s the backside of the one 2nd from the bottom about 3 hours ago
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c65d9a1f162405c46203398c4c7d1ba1729e9e79161e7295bc0ef298bb4121c1.jpg

      • alane777 .

        Well I was going to post one I took about the same time but upside down pics don’t look that good.
        I have lived here for 2 years now coming from Humboldt. Not much weather here except Hot !!!… Oh well I’m still really liking it.
        Yes there have been some fires started but I think we’ve actually been pretty lucky so far.

        • alanstorm

          I’m a Humboldt transplant as well. Grew up in Redcrest/Pepperwood area. You’re right- it’s nothing but HOT HOT here all summer

    • Craig Matthews

      That cell just west of Stonyford shows incredible high dbz. Likely some rather large hail for California standards in that isolated spot.

      • Pfirman

        Probably turned the Letts Lake campground into the Let’s Leave campground.

        • Craig Matthews

          Lets get the hail outta here!!

  • I’m going to Vegas August 17-20. Any chance of a monsoonal surge in that area at that time?

  • alane777 .

    Here’s one I took maybe around 4:30. I’ve lived here for a couple of years now coming from Humboldt. Not a whole lot weather around here except Hot !!!
    Oh well I’m still really liking it. That’s it I’m done posting upside down pics. LoL.https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/322cd690e539a562f6c822725c12fbcc02d28c547ab4a0e900ac1640b7bb082b.jpg

  • PRCountyNative

    I figured something out today:

    99% of the time California Weather during the summer is BORING for 99% of residents. Wake me up in October.

    Meanwhile: Name this lighthouse, shrouded in coastal fog…??

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71b37b21dcc848e157e3aa2389f7792c44bce3c36e8c1ffd7a45a31fb06d3c9f.jpg

    • Pfirman

      That’s not a lighthouse. That’s Bigfoot.

    • Nate

      Not a lighthouse, but the Pinyon Peak fire lookout?

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      That’s pinyon peak I have that same exact view of the clouds on the mountains this evening looking from the front of my house in Carmel valley! 🙂

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      LOL, we know summer weather in California is boring when we get excited about a weather cell that brings a 10 second shot of rainfall that barely marks the pavement

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    folks in San Jose have now lost 59 minutes of daylight since the summer solstice. We’re almost there!

    • Thunder98

      Places like Olympia, WA have 1 hour and 30 minutes since the Summer Solstice.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I have really noticed it the past week. It is dark at 5:30AM now.

      • Pfirman

        And will be for some time going forward, as they say.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          Yea, it is going to start making my morning chores more difficult doing them in the dark but I am looking forward to the coming fall slowdown

  • Thunder98

    8/11: Today is the last day of when the sun angle is above 70° where I live.

    https://www.timeanddate.com/sun/@5379609

    Sunrise: 6:19AM
    Sunset: 7:53PM
    Day Length: 13 Hours 34 Minutes and 37 Seconds
    Peak Sun Angle: 70.2°

    • Shadows trigger the first ‘fall is coming’ for me, too.

      • Pfirman

        I just wait for the equinox and call it a sure thing.

        • Tuolumne

          The idea of seasons starting at the equinoxes and solstices is an old one but it bears little relation to climatic reality. On the other hand, any effort to assign a fixed date runs into the reality of different climates in different places. Labor Day at 10,000 feet in the Sierra is definitely fall, while down in the flatlands it’s still really summer.

          • Pfirman

            Of course you are correct. Just because the sun is in a certain position does not mean the weather instantly falls, ahem, in line everywhere, but it does give one a nice hard handle to hold onto in turbulent times.

  • CHeden

    Did a “quickie” Trinity Lake trip to break in my new truck (500 miles break-in period….ugh….gotta get it freeway ready by next Thursday to go to Oregon fer the eclipse).
    Finally caught a few C-G strikes west of Lewiston and again east of the lake. Some narrow/intense shafts, but hardly any rain on my windshield. I think radar is overdoing things based on what I saw on the internet vs. what I was seeing first hand. As with the last many days, storms are maturing very quickly in the afternoon with the blowoff covering the area and choking off the heat by 3-4 p.m. In a few isolated places, storms are continuing until early evening, but by and large things are basically cleared out by sundown.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Hey CHeden, what kind of truck did you end up with? (a fellow trucker wants to know… :^)

      • Pfirman

        Ditto. An uncharacteristic lapse on his part, I must say.

      • CHeden

        Got a great deal on a closeout GMC Canyon SLE, All Terrain 4×4, with 6′ bed. Tonneau cover, liner and bed extender to be installed next week.
        The mobile WiFi hotspot in conjunction with the OnStar system feature will be real handy. No CD player player though, so will be spending most of the winter copying my collection to flash.
        Also, the new 8-speed tranny is big improvement over the 6 speed.
        Despite the typical bumpy truck-ride, it handles real well. My wife is happy other than having to practice getting in and out with a dress on (yes, ladies still wear dresses on occasion). Really pleased with the purchase.

  • CHeden

    And, regarding the eclipse, at this time I’m getting concerned that there may be some considerable cloudiness in the Oregon area that may put a huge monkey-wrench into my current plans. Here’s the deterministic run of the GFS for early on the 21st showing a large LP over the far NW and a deep trough extending south off the coast and a front slowly pushing east (1st image). Charts show a fairly deep saturation layer between 850 and 500mb which would be high enough for extensive cloudiness to spill over the Cascades. Way too early to call off my plans (or make others), but needless to say I’ll be monitoring the charts regularly.
    Also, and something I’ll not go into yet but worthy of interest, is the long range solution shows the upper low off the NW coast dropping down to off NorCal, and in the process entrain both moisture and eventually core remnants of a tropical system and push the energy onto the California coast. ATTM, the Bay Area south looks to be in the crosshairs for the initial wave (2nd image), with the remains of the TD/dynamics eventually tracking SW-NE over NorCal.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0c641186ae4e15ca5737c3fb767e4f195ba250368eb4312bbf8205aa5560b1c2.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e029687a79cfe85c7d7a8efc42a61883e392af8656e1b462e8e6404027e5e68.gif

    • CHeden

      Precip totals through the extended. Quite a Fall-like precip pattern, IMHO.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ac66c0414ed070de5c0666fdf2c4512589878a996fc1da3a0669a0d2d78488e.gif

      • Nathan

        It’s ok, they could really use it. Been dry and hot AF in the entire OR/WA/BC region since early June and once their timber dries out the fire risk gets scary. Hope the eclipse is still visible, though….my folks are driving up to WA from the Bay.

      • Pfirman

        Fall? As in rainfall? Hope so.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Your favorite Steve Paulson was noting the same thing today, he mentioned it’s 10 days out so we can’t really say for sure but keep an eye on it.

      • CHeden

        Thanks! I’ll turn on KTVU now.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I was concerned by model runs a few days ago that were showing storminess moving into Wyoming (where I’ll be to view the eclipse) on the 21st. Models appear to have trended away from that, but like you, I’m watching them closely. I wouldn’t be too concerned 10 days out though, as we all know how these model solutions can shift considerably as we draw closer.

    • Craig Matthews

      Keeping our fingers crossed. A bunch of us are gonna be staying at a friend’s ranch up in the high deserty area east of LaPine Oregon on the 21st, and we’re really hoping that the weather will favor the views of the eclipse up there.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I’ll be in Idaho and it looks iffy there as well. That and the terrible smoke I hear they are getting from the BC fires.

  • AlTahoe

    Took the early flight into Vegas for work this morning and Sonora pass to the mammoth area is still holding onto a decent amount of snow https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80011756382b3ad3e5df6973cbf890008ba8124fcdceb1c6633a6000687a7b76.jpg

  • Thunderstorm

    All the hype about North Korea bunch of bull. Only real concern is the help given by Iran. New Orleans may flood again next week. Fog layer here SF bay area doesn’t burn off til noon. Complete change from the first 6 weeks of summer.

    • molbiol

      After getting screwed over by the monsoon this year and seeing how once again, the pattern has prematurely shifted-effectively ending any chance for additional summer thunderstorms for most of Socal–I think I will have to spend some time next summer in Tucson or someplace in the southeast.
      Here are the latest AFDs from New Orleans and Tallahassee FL:

      The CWA is centered between an upper level ridge to the east over
      the Atlantic, a ridge to the west over Texas and weak troughing
      aloft that will lift northeastward in the short term. In this
      pattern the flow aloft is weak and this leaves the CWA in a
      summertime pattern of seabreeze convection. PoPs of 30-50%
      Saturday will increase to 50-60% on Sunday as a weak surface front
      is situated near the CWA. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower
      90s with lows in the mid 70s.

      .LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]…

      A moist pattern will continue into the long term with scattered
      convection expected each day with PoPs in the 50-60% range. Upper
      level energy and a surface front may help to provide more of a
      focus for convection mid to late week. Highs will remain around 90
      with lows in the mid 70s.

      New Orleans:
      Little in the way of change is expected for the next several days
      as a persistent weather pattern results in a continued daily
      threat of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with
      localized heavy rainfall possible.

      • molbiol

        BTW: Listening to Trump and Kim reminds me of two little boys in the school yard

  • For everyone out there 18Z August 21st = 11AM August 21st PDT which is about 40 minutes after peak eclipse for California.
    Here’s a link for more information: https://www.timeanddate.com/eclipse/solar/2017-august-21

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Good sunny afternoon with perfect temps and a nice cool breeze here in Carmel valley! And I’ve got the day off! View of pinyon peak from the front of my house https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8cd60705d80ab2320717d347a52315e80d815ab18feec473ece781e3e14af199.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b92f76fb05dbb9bfeeddf365bb54dc6f3e312c7b53e0f13078dce2ce6c23bef5.jpg

  • My dad just sent this to me from his trip to San Diego just now. Lucky!!!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f1550a596bb5f405c2a63ce56a7fd3798dcb6a1b315a541607175d10eb02241d.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Those were stolen from Tahoe.

      • Nathan

        Fwiw they’re not amounting to much

        • Pfirman

          You should see Tahoe.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Yep, wondered where those went — I’m sitting up here and nothing but peaceful blue sky after a week of action

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          Hopefully the good SE flow will come back for you guys before troughs really start to establish off the coast…

        • Pfirman

          So what we see from down here is just a mirage and we should be thanked for our patronage?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    storm chaser live on Periscope at 29 Palms.
    https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OyKArlBVpoGb

  • Cap’n

    Really cool shot from the Carson Pass area a couple days ago. This guy has some bitchin’ photography.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd989eef3c4945f7c6df6a83a532de455a67083100dc9195338f6fc4c1e26b9e.png

    • annette johnson

      Wow!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Great shot! What are the odds that some of the remaining snow/ice from Winter 16/17 will survive to have fresh Winter 17/18 snow upon it?

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Incredible shot!

  • AlTahoe
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    100 acre fire around Lake Berryessa (seems the areas around here have issues every summer). Looks like lots of resources are being sent to Napa County to help with the fire. https://www.facebook.com/abc7news/videos/vb.57427307078/10155798483787079/?type=3&theater

    Also, another fire in the Morgan Hill area, reported around 100 acres.

    • Pfirman

      One has to ask what is left to burn unless some bastard is targeting.

    • MH was fortunately only a grass fire

  • tomocean

    I am well positioned high in the Sierra above Mono Lake and am prepared to be dazzled by the Perseid meteor shower the next two nights. Hope that little cloud doesn’t block my view. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6523d1ab1c1ee0a92f23598448ab0042d4dded3838a696023182114b6a98d693.jpg

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Hopefully the Moon doesn’t spoil it. Moon rises around 10:20pm and sets just before 4am. One of the most impressive sights I’ve ever seen was during the Perseids as I was driving back to Flagstaff from the Grand Canyon on a Moonless night back in the 1980’s. It was a very clear night and I could see the Milky Way very easily above as I drove South down Hwy 180. Suddenly, the sky lit up bright enough for the Pine trees to cast shadows, and a bright reddish bolide went streaking across the sky with a glowing tail. Haven’t seen anything like that before or since.

      • tomocean

        Am really hoping for something like this!!

  • AlTahoe

    Storm in Vegas is going crazy. Been sitting over the same mountains for an hour and there must be insane flash flooding over there. On and off downpours here at the mirage https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f137219a351921be2e12f96a3b4ca4fc128406ee7a27981d3c334fbed03b365.jpg

    • alanstorm

      You’re timing & luck are spot ON.
      I’d go do a couple of $5 slots if I were you

      • Straight up!

        • Pfirman

          At least do a turn for me if you see my posts above connected to Tyler’s reveries.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like the Orleans, Palms, Gold Coast & the Rio will be getting wet. A quick half inch of rain in Vegas usually means street flooding on the Strip.

      • AlTahoe

        It poured here at the strip. The cg lightning was insane

    • Hopefully it is like that next weekend.

    • Unrelated but the Loma fire started at a pot farm from a sparking generator. I’m posting here because IIRC you have some property there.

  • RunningSprings6250

    A couple shots I figured everyone would enjoy – an intense tstorm I drove through in the Colorado Rockies on Tuesday , plus cool looking cloud too over SW Wyoming on Wednesday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a38d2b8ec01c376f95e148abed84d76ee804bd142406cbf4f582e1c0a6e7b866.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/37158733c3bc359296f821a9af199015e8777b69a727180178b267ce9a9b0572.jpg

    And last but not least….may he rot in hell…trying to burn up our town EIGHT TIMES!

    https://m.facebook.com/sbsun/posts/10154856749993263

    • matthew

      No dog, no up vote.

      • RunningSprings6250

        No soup for you!

        • matthew

          Grrrrrr…

    • Craig Matthews

      Looks like the hwy headed right into that hail shaft, or whatever it was looks fun.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Dropped to 50F going through there at around 10k!

    • Pfirman

      You may burn in hell too. That first photo just looks pornographic up and down. Maybe it’s just me.

      • RunningSprings6250

        It was an erotic moment no doubt.

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Y’all remember the epic storm chase I had back in August in Las Vegas?! I storm chased a severe warned cell and fire punched it! Drove right into the belly of the beast! Best storm chase I’ve ever done tbh! Here’s the video I shot for good ol times! ^_^ man I wanna monsoon storm chase so bad before this summer is over..
    https://youtu.be/3srqsokL2KQ

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      Here’s the other clips of the rain bomb (micro burst) that I core punched into!
      https://youtu.be/oUmtQHJklRI

      • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

        And the final clip of the rain bomb.. fun chase!!
        https://youtu.be/MLSAKMbYbD8

        • Pfirman

          And here I was thinking dude gets a day off and lucks out big time. Of course Al Tahoe would be talking about this too, as he just went there for work. Don’t know if he took the donut or not.

          • Pfirman

            Just read his post below and I swear I am not psychic. Psycho maybe, but weather can do that right away. Climate takes a little longer.

        • alanstorm

          Definitely some serious FLASH FLOOD action thereabouts

    • annette johnson

      I remember that well? I was fairly new to the blog when you posted it. Whenever there is storm activity in Vegas, I wonder if it’s a “Tyler in Las Vegas” type of storm lol. Can’t believe it’s been a year!

      • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

        I know.. don’t remind me how fast time is going by! Haha I’m 28 now..

        • annette johnson

          That’s a great age…the best is yet to come!

  • Charlie B

    An unusually cold, wet and windy early fall storm is going to impact Northern Alaska over the weekend. Areas in the Brooks Range will see up to 8″ of snow.

    • Pfirman

      You saying you found Tobias?

    • Sublimesl

      early fall?

      • Charlie B

        NWS quote. Fall is relative.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Pfirman

      What a setting for a fair. Yolo County Fair is jelly.

    • Beth_ElDoradoHills

      i wonder if tusnami DANGER is included in price of admission!!!

    • max

      Spent two days there this week. Fabulous breezy, cool conditions keeping everything comfortable. The Rodeo today, (Sun.) was great!

  • Thunder98

    8/12: The Sun angle is now below 70°.

    Sunrise: 6:20AM
    Sunset: 7:52PM
    Day Length: 13 hours 32 minutes and 45 seconds
    Peak Sun Angle: 69.9°

    • thebigweasel

      All that tells us is that you are around 35 North.

  • Bombillo1

    The heat and fire haze drove me off. Went thru Oregon and it was worse, Idaho the same, Montana no better, British Columbia roads closed with massive fires, Alberta – Banff the same. I feel like we’re in an extinction event and there is no where to go..

    • Pfirman

      Thanks for making me happy to stay home.

    • Thor

      Its been pretty bad in MT for the last 3 weeks or so…and the last 2 days the worst in the Gallatin Valley…according to the local boffins most of the smoke is coming from BC. But supposed cold front supposed come thru Sun/Mon and blow the smoke out as flow changes from NW to SW. Hope so. We’ll see.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Very unfortunate fire conditions in PacNW. I am happily surprised of the minimal # of fires in SoCal this summer, thus far.

      • 200 fires started in 48 hours up there so my guess is lighting.

        Canada: Humans cause about 50% fires. Lightning strikes burn 80% of acres burned and human caused fires burn about 20%.
        Source: Pelmorex Canada

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Yet humans are responsible for 90% here in cali. Result of relative population density?

    • Charlie B

      Almost sounds like Kim Jong Un’s dream scenario.