California’s searing summer to continue; active East Pacific could bring tropical “slingshot”

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 23, 2017 4,011 Comments

An exceptionally hot summer so far

Daily maximum (and average) temperatures have been exceptionally warm across nearly all of California so far this summer. (Via WRCC. Please note that proposed funding cuts will eliminate all WRCC data access in 2018.)

Despite a mild spring across most of California, summer 2017 has been truly searing across most of California away from the immediate coastline. Numerous, prolonged heatwaves have brought an extended period of well above-average temperatures at the height of summer, with temperature falling to around average for only brief periods. There has been an exception to the unrelenting heat in California’s interior: regions within 5-10 miles of the Pacific ocean have experienced greatly muted effects from these heatwaves, as they (so far) have not coincided with periods of strong offshore flow. Still, ocean surface temperatures have started to rise in response to persistent heat and weak coastal upwelling–and even the beaches have started to experience anomalously warm temperatures in recent days. This is especially true in Southern California, where SSTs into the 70s in some spots have greatly curtailed the typical seabreeze circulation, raised surface humidity into uncomfortable territory, and have prevented overnight temperatures from falling much below 70 degrees.

A persistent ridge has brought relentless heat to much of the American West since the beginning of June. (NCEP via ESRL Plotter)

What’s causing this extreme inland heat and unusual/uncomfortable SoCal humidity? An unusually persistent ridge has developed somewhat to the west of its typical summertime position over the Desert Southwest, which has favored the occurrence of numerous heatwaves across the CA interior. It has been an exceptionally hot summer so far across the entire American West–not just California–though in recent days a robust monsoonal moisture surge has moderated temperatures across Arizona and Nevada. This ridge is not located quite far enough west to bring very hot coastal temperatures, although it has acted to inhibit the northwesterly winds that normally induce cold water upwelling along the coast and has thereby caused coastal SSTs to rise and overnight coastal temperatures to creep upward.

 

Increasing monsoonal influence; rising heat

An upper low will be in a favorable position for higher elevation thunderstorms across NorCal today and Monday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Unfortunately, it appears that this pattern over the next 10+ days will bring more of the same–more heat, and rising humidity–though there will be the potential for some interesting weather at times. As of this writing, an upper-level low pressure center was located off the coast of Northern California, and is expected to move slowly inland through Monday. As it does so, sufficient moisture and elevated instability exists over much of the NorCal interior for potentially widespread thunderstorms later Sunday and Monday across the higher terrain. While much less likely, some isolated storms could occur over the Central Valley or North Coast region given the presence of a somewhat moist airmass. The potential for widespread lightning–even if much of it occurs with wetting rains–is a significant fire weather concern, given the existence of numerous large wildfires already throughout California and the lack of firefighting resources available to address new fires.

Yet more strong, California-focused anomalous ridging is in the forecast. NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com

Early this week, a stronger push of monsoonal moisture will also move into Southern California. Mountain and desert thunderstorms are a good bet, and there is also a slight chance of storms all the way to the coast. There is still pretty dramatic inter-model disagreement regarding the westward extent of this moisture in SoCal on Monday and Tuesday, which could mean the difference between unremarkable conditions and a pretty active weather period. At this point, it’s not clear which scenario will win–though it’s worth noting that the global models have done an especially poor job simulating westward monsoonal moisture incursions so far this summer. While such events are always difficult to simulate given California’s position at the far western margin of the monsoon region and the highly stabilizing effect of a relatively cold nearby ocean, it seems that the extreme persistence of anomalous West Coast ridging mentioned earlier has inhibited what otherwise might have been more impressive events so far this year.

Very hot weather likely to return across all of the West in coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Regardless of the degree of monsoonal moisture that overspreads California, however, there seems to be agreement that the ridge will re-strengthen over California–and that well above-average temperatures will return later this week after a brief lull.

 

 

 

 

Eastern Pacific extremely active; a tropical “slingshot” possible
Later this week and into next weekend, all eyes turn toward the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This region has recently been producing an exceptional number of tropical cyclones (i.e. tropical storms and hurricanes), and activity is actually expected to further increase in the coming days. Unlike recent storms, which have headed almost due westward into the remote Pacific, additional tropical development over the next 7-10 days is expected to take a more northwesterly track. This will potentially put several decaying hurricanes/tropical storms in a position that has historically been favorable for the advection of moisture into California from the south/southwest.

“Fujiwhara” interaction between two East Pacific hurricanes could “slingshot” tropical moisture toward California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Intriguingly, the GFS has been consistently suggesting the potential for a very unusual interaction to occur between two of these East Pacific tropical cyclones later this week. The animation below shows what is known as a “Fujiwhara interaction” between two such storms west of Baja California, in which two tropical cyclones move close enough to one another to influence each other’s circulation and begin to rotate around a common center. As this occurs, storm motion can become highly nonlinear and very hard to predict, and occasionally results in the smaller storm being “ejected” from the broader gyre in “slingshot” fashion. For what it’s worth, I can’t personally recall a model forecast calling for such an event to occur so close to California (it’s more common in the West Pacific, where typhoons are quite common).

What does this mean for California? At this point, it’s hard to say–tropical influences in California weather are always hard to project more than a few days in advance, and this is doubly true with the potential for such an unusual multi-storm interaction as discussed above. But it does appear there is a pretty good chance that tropical moisture (perhaps complimented by enhanced monsoonal moisture under stronger southeasterly flow) will eventually make it to California in the 5-10 day period. The most direct consequence of this will be a potentially dramatic increase in humidity–which may make the upcoming heat even more miserable. This moisture, however, will also make mountain/desert thunderstorms likely, and may bring a risk of showers/thunderstorms even to coastal areas. There are presently no  indications that a tropical rainfall event as substantial as that associated with the remnants of Hurricane Dolores in 2015 is in store–but the situation certainly does bear watching. All in all, it appears that the next couple of weeks have the potential to become pretty interesting by California summer standards.

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  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)
    • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

      The Pac NW is well above average temperatures and the plains are very below average temperatures.

    • AntiochWx
    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Definitely has been the case around the Bay Area very nice and mild to “cool” even inland, with plenty of fog each day.

      Today unfortunately the marine layer did not clear at all until around noon in my area so no eclipse action. Then by 4pm it started building back and is already cloudy Again.

      I hope this cooler hi/trof, hi/trof pattern every few daysportrays a fluid and active winter to come…I know like a “typical”pattern.

      Unlike those stagnat jet days of the terrible RRR regime.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Shadows were really neat. Heat from the sun on your skin disappeared and daytime heating was not only halted for ~30 minutes but it dropped from 67 to 65 here. Took my son out of class and sat in the parking lot with super awesome stunner shades on.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/affa7a59801c1ef90b2c9d361ee8417aaf297c7e7f89f423c172238034823ef4.jpg

    In Oregon for this photo though… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f8e62a1a445382b73b62cf33d8658d43a069beb7da6f3ac64a5a827d1c4dd669.jpg

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Pretty big clip of moisture & instability headed for the Bay Area this afternoon-evening along with a greater threat to the N Sac Valley tomorrow afternoon… Dry air in the SJV might create a cap for precipitation to reach anywhere below the mid-levels so there is a fair chance to watch for dry lightning associated with these clouds as they move overhead. @cheden:disqus, I’m sure you’ll be keeping an eye on this… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/91d3a66aef62d793b4fbb165fe28a9c374bfeba97434536b7bd8a2953ae9322c.gif

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      No lightning noted at the moment as the move quickly west, however the chance is there.

    • Jim

      Made for a beautiful sunset tonight in Santa Cruz area

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    The high today was quite a bit warmer than expected with a muggy 78F, even with all that marine layer that lasted until about 11-11:30ish. The low today was a realtively warm 63F!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2f83a34f8d2ed3e86bc6141608708fa7c402aeda9fe1f65fce6604a6b5c3c1cb.png

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)
    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Looks kind of iffy, especially with the Central Coast water temperature on the increase.

  • matthew
  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://twitter.com/therickydavila/status/899690881518907393
    This is the best thing I have seen from the eclipse by far!

    • Wet Line(San Diego)

      Spectacular, Thanks for sharing.

  • Summit Steve

    Ominous sky thisr afternoon in the Soda Springs yes it was with alots of thunder but the rain she stayed to either side besides a sprinkle.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8aa1ab9b2d545f31f6ac47a369c7b91e9adc3445b0a14b9ebd83d18768001849.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Craig, 805 and Cheden may be able to answer this question, but why is this moisture and instabilty with some light showers moving west from the Sierras and not moving north, south, or east?

    • Might be the COL inside slider some have been talking about? Partial eclipse, sprinkles in August in Bay Area same day.. who woulda thunk?

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Not that rare for storms to develop over the Sierra and be pushed West with the winds.

  • TheNothing
    • AntiochWx

      83 today! First fall like day.

  • janky

    Light rain drops in the SC mountains (Los Gatos) about an hour ago 🙂

  • janky

    And NOAA put the rain my 2750 foot forecast for Santa Cruz mountains:

    “A slight chance of sprinkles before 11pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 63. West wind around 6 mph.”

  • TheNothing

    I’m seeing lightning flashes towards the Auburn area.

    • gray whale

      we were watching quite the light show between 10-11 from our house about 12 mi SE of auburn. Seemed to start around what I figured was near Stumpy and head west. Hopefully no fire starts.

  • AlTahoe

    Had some thunder and lightning last night around 10pm and some good rain showers. Today is supposed to be the big day.

    • Charlie B

      Do you think that the overcast skies will put a damper on things? I have seen too many promising days like this fizzle.

      • AlTahoe

        We cleared out this morning and I went for a quick mountain bike ride. It was hot and humid. Skies went from no clouds to Thunder storms in about an hour. Today feels like it will be big

  • PRCountyNative

    Since there’s still no weather for 2 more months, how about a post on how California Weather will affect the 40 million, and lots more on the way, people here when:

    Drought intensifies, sea level rises a foot, then three, and periodic intense heavy rainfall increases? When agriculture suffers as aquifers run dry and farmland is paved over, and ocean warming and acidification really kick in? What happens when 100 degree days become the norm, and snow very scarce? When the need for water for industry and agriculture, and residential use, can’t be met, leaving nothing for the flora and fauna? What happens when an ice-free arctic completely changes the weather patterns we depend on for life?

    Or, maybe instead we could have a post on famous celebrities and what they will wear when its hot, and their favorite outfits for cold weather?

    • Bombillo1

      I agree. We are in the midst of an overarching ecological event, of which the weather is a symtom. This is tantamount to being consumed with lung cancer and we are obsessing about which cough syrup is best.

      Driving back from Oregon a nd the smoke & traffic is overwhelming. How much CO2 is being injected by all these fires. It must dwarf any other source?

      • jstrahl

        “This is tantamount to being consumed with lung cancer and we are obsessing about which cough syrup is best.”
        NAILS IT! Thanks!

      • Tuolumne

        The issue there is what is happening over time to the net amount of carbon stored on the landscape. Fire suppression actually soaked up a lot of carbon over the last 100 years as forests increased in biomass in the west. Now we are faced with possibly all that carbon and then some more going back into the atmosphere as drought-stricken forests burn over the next 100 years and are not replaced in kind.

    • Why not do what we’ve done is speculate about winter?

      https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/ This is a good site/forum if you need to blow off some steam. There are a lot of sub-forums that might satisfy all your questions

      Suggestion: Flip your mattress over before you go to bed tonight.

      • Pfirman

        And turn it head to toe.

      • PRCountyNative

        My point is rather then spend the next 2 months complaining that the weather is boring, we could discuss – share and learn – about our inevitable future.

        The future that when it arrives (Coming now!) most people will say “Who could have known?? Why didn’t anyone tell me??”.

        It’s baked into the cake, while what passes for ‘news’ talks about celebrities and what’s wrong with you and which pill to take for it.

        Talking about the upcoming winter is fine, too. However that is 99% speculation. The rest I listed is not, is happening now, and will be magnifying in intensity and effect every day forward.

        It’s our choice, and that’s my suggestion. I can’t wait for winter personally, but I know we’ve got at least 2 months until it gets good.

        • I was half-pulling your chain. 🙂
          There was some decent intelligent thought with some of it here being put into the 2016-17 winter in August.
          I can’t wait for winter either and to be honest, I live for it every year. I’m anxious about this winter now. So there’s your 1%! :))

  • Charlie B

    One of my partners (a sometimes poster here under the name “Bronco88”) went to Boise Sunday night and saw the eclipse yesterday. A couple of weeks ago he mentioned he had the hotel room in Boise and he was debating whether or not to go. I told him it was a very long drive from Reno on highly dangerous roads with big rig trucks everywhere and few gas stations, and once in Boise he would find it boring with not much to do, lousy crowded restaurants, rude waitresses, etc., and that it would probably be cloudy and a waste of time, and ended it with : “If you are not going I will sacrifice my time, risk my very life and go in your place.” He decided to go. He is not one for hyperbole. He just sent me the following text: “The eclipse as singularly the most spectacular thing I have ever seen. It is definitely worth considering making plans to see the one in 2024.”

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      I concur. Drove the family to Sandpoint, then down south for the eclipse in Donnelly Idaho. Totality was really something you have to experience to understand the big deal. Those that say “seen one eclipse, seen them all”, I hope they are not posting this winter since nothing new or interesting will happen in CA weather wise anyway.

      Sitting in a cafe in Winnemucca Nv onour long trek home. Hope to post video tomorrow.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Congratulations you guys on your dedication and do-it’ness.

        What little I experienced down here in San Jose was this eerie 1/4 dark-sunlight that is just hard to explain. Such are the few, rare experiences – words fall short of articulating the feeling. I can only imagine what the full effect must have been like!

        You know, we weather geeks just get it. We recognize the vast and far reaching effect weather has on so many. It’s an experience shared by all it touches. Speaking for me, it’s observing and experiencing something over which man has no control, none. In this controlled world we live in, pampered and protected, few realize how thin this veneer of “civilization” is. When something like yesterday’s eclipse occurs, we experience for just a few moments, just how vulnerable and at Her mercy we are. But to our relief, it’s over in a few minutes, and then it’s –

        WOW, that was cool! Now, What’s for LUNCH?

        : ^ ) Boogie on moon/sun/storm chasers.

        • AlTahoe

          That eerie sunlight was very hard to describe but was still really cool to see. It felt like somebody had a dimmer switch on the sun. It also got noticeably cooler outside at incline village.

    • Pfirman

      Annie Dillard described the difference between seeing a partial and seeing totality as the difference between kissing a man and marrying him. Divorce was not part of the metaphor, heh.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I expect a lot of good thunderstorm activity upstate today, latest models & satellite imagery seem to agree…

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Fire season in SoCal has been light compared to the rest of the state. Is it just luck or did the high dew points/ monsoon showers [in places] actually help keep fires in check, so far? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eadc48fb86df24e7e51c291c8370922f502594f43ce73ddab098bf00f7cd650f.jpg

    • alanstorm

      I guess it’s been bad up my way, plenty of small fires & lots of smoke, but the main news is SO FAR no town- burning catastrophes (yet) ala Lake County.
      After an Apocalyptic drought followed by a brush enhancing record rain, I think we’re sneaking through this fire season in relatively good shape

      • PRCountyNative

        Seems like the extra wet winter trumped the extra high grass. Things a lot less flammable overall.

        • alanstorm

          Pretty bone-dry up here. Walking thru grass gets that CRUNCH sound. We really got baked last month!

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            The above 100 temps for days on end sure did dry out the grasses and brush pretty quickly. Sept early Oct will be interesting for the North half of the state if we don’t see much early rain.

      • Tuolumne

        Are you actually seeing more brush regionally this year? Have past wet years caused such an increase? If so, did the amount of brush go back down next time there was a dry year?

        I’m not convinced that a single wet winter causes widespread and significant increases in the amount of brush on the landscape, in a way that’s meaningful to fire danger. During the recovery after a fire, brush increases over a period of many years in the absence of more fires, but ultimately gets limited by competition and site capacity.

        • alanstorm

          Good point. Still, this year we’ve had the highest & thickest grass I’ve seen in recent memory (which is fading).
          There are areas so thick, I gave up on any form of cutting, except maybe a tractor. And it’s STILL growing! We have 6ft grass in spots.
          Brush? Looking healthier & bigger 20-30%
          Trees? Lots of new growth finally.
          However, this is thru the jaundiced lense of several drought-year of die-offs.
          All in all, my property has lost a good 25% of trees & brush (drought, beetles) since I bought it 17 yrs ago. Firs took a hit.
          By the way, the creeks & streams dried up WAY too early, same as last 3-4 years

        • Admode (Susanville)

          I agree with that. It may increase new growth but not significantly. Also you would expect the increase live fuel moisture would reduce flammability.

          Grass on the other hand…

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Probably so. August has seen a drop in fire activity compared to July in the Central Coast. The stubborn mugginess might be a blessing in disguise.

    • Chris

      People start most fires in so cal outside highest mountains that are caused by lightning.
      I think it’s more of a choice by the pyromaniacs….. or careless people

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Socal typically gets going in the fall.

  • alanstorm

    100° on tap for Ukiah Sat, Sun & Mon, followed by 8 days of 96° (according to today’s forecast).
    Not much to comment about, other then it’s a rather stagnant pattern. Hoping some early Sept troughs make their way down

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      just looked at tropical tidbits temp anomaly, looks to be a persistent heatwave from Aug 27th thru Sept 7th.

      • alanstorm

        Call those people up & tell them we don’t need that crap

  • AlTahoe

    I am working from home today so I can watch the storms. South end of the lake is favored today according to Nws reno. Thunder has already started https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1091d7023b4a5579e00a8fe9003a5af20aae7c98e79aed821f5d0b5a5e041b00.png

    • matthew

      Thunder rumbling just north of me also.

    • molbiol

      Compared to last summer, the Sierra has done really well this year thunderstorm-wise

      • AlTahoe

        With the 2-3″ of rain we had two Sundays ago I would guess that we are like 400% of normal for summer rain. Supposed to get heavy rain again today which would push that number up higher

      • matthew

        I was saying to my wife this morning that it seems like we have had rain at least 50% of the days for the past couple of weeks. I do not track rainfall, but I would guess that we are far above normal in what is usually one of the driest months.

    • matthew

      Judging from radar right now you should have stayed in Incline. Looks like they are getting hammered right now.

  • molbiol

    Reminder, ‘normal’ and ‘median’ this time of year is essentially zero for many areas of California. This means even a few hundredths of an inch of precip is considered ‘above median’. That being said, I still don’t know what CPC is basing their forecast on….none of the models are showing any sort of monsoon surges throughout their runs. Still, this weekend into next week looks HOT..
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b25100fe4964e98c4a9a43b96306b3548998e3cbcaf21c5288e8661bf211852.jpg

  • AlTahoe

    I am so glad that I have a dog that doesn’t care one bit about the thunder going on so I can enjoy the storms from the front porch while he sleeps 🙂
    Some of my friends dogs turn in shaking/slobbering messes and I feel so bad for them. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/749a3d09039b1a56575167f8da40b20b0ecf8d38523f34b91e49dce097624cf5.jpg

  • tomocean

    Those storms up towards the Tahoe –
    Donner crest look enormous from Auburn. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0986cdd2536ee54b6f0e24173d87e9bd2517c62436ad4b00731ea311d88c8294.jpg

    • Pfirman

      You can tell it is big from down here in Yolo but a wretched pall of smoke obscures the show. Thanks for clean look.

      • tomocean

        Ugh. I hate the later summer air in the valley. It looks…chewable.

  • matthew

    Dump-o-rama over Glenshire right now. Looks like it is developing right over the top of us. Last lightning strike (about 10 seconds ago) was 3 seconds between flash and bang.

  • AlTahoe

    Friend just sent me this from the Carson city Toyota dealer. Lightning hit the hillside and started a big fire right in town. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/54542c85ef645628cfc9d9e86fa978c961023f38c4e22d74d1819f14de27cdf5.jpg

  • Charlie B

    Strong T’storm in South Reno. Lights have flickered and I would not be surprised if I lose power mid sente

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Truckee PD just posted it’s coming down pretty good in East Truckee around @mattmlTruckee:disqus ‘hood.

      • matthew

        Looks like it is moving into your hood right now.

    • Charlie B

      No one got the joke.

    • Jim

      Just glanced at the post originally…but now that you point it out….well done

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Anyone in the Dublin/Camp Parks area? 60 acre brush fire encroaching on some of the new homes in the area.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Flood advisory now posted for Truckee by the NWS Reno.
    https://twitter.com/NWSReno/status/900118885629865984

  • Shane Ritter
  • AlTahoe

    Every storm in the Sierra today is moving north except for the one over south lake tahoe. It was right on our door step then stopped and went 50 miles south in like 20 minutes. Got about 2 minutes of sprinkles and even the thunder has stopped

  • AlTahoe
    • Dan the Weatherman

      Is this firenado from the same fire near the Toyota dealer you posted below?

      • AlTahoe

        Yes

  • Shane Ritter
  • Shane Ritter

    We just had a lightning strike right above the house, the kind that makes the windows rattle. Then it started pouring.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Clouds here at 3900, but no oomph

    • Charlie B

      Oomph reminds me of a beer hall in Munich and a girl named “Gardis”

  • Nate

    Totality in Madras, Oregon:
    https://youtu.be/a89tDjvQpOE

  • Nate

    Totality in Madras, Oregon:

  • alanstorm

    Seeing a dozen or so lightning flashes, 20 or 30 miles to my East, maybe Covelo area.
    Nothing on radar.
    Nothing on the Lightning Maps® (which means it isn’t 100% accurate)
    Multiple strikes going on around Shasta, but thats too far for me to see from here…….right?

    • Jim

      When I was storm chasing in the Midwest, I compared the lightning maps to what I was actually witnessing and it wasn’t even close…maybe 2 strikes seen on the site for every 10 I actually saw.

      • alanstorm

        So there it is.
        “When I was storm chasing in the Midwest…..” is always a good way to start a sentence!

  • alanstorm

    Shasta Trinity Ntl Forest getting LIT UP tonight. Lassen area tons of lightning strikes showing.
    Hopefully no fires….
    https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=41.3072;x=-121.9841;z=6;t=2;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    any chance at a new blog post in the next few days Daniel? Really concerned about the forecast for Aug 27- Sept 7th. Persistent heatwave

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      That & I’d like to get into talks about these localized 60ºF+ dew points that keep sticking to the coastal bight & how they will continue to affect the SoCal weather patterns ahead… I mean come on I’m just now seeing a 58ºF dew point in the last 25 days for my location 6 miles from the coast & the ECMWF is hinting at this pattern sticking into the first week of September. Does the persistent lower level stability across the Southern California bight over these last few years have more correlation than previously thought to why we have been seeing systems that have a prominent warm/cold front die out or stall just north or on Pt. Conception during fall-spring? Does the SST gradient off the coast that we have seen form consistently in a SW-NE manner mirror what these dew points are showing & does this somehow lead back down the line to the same studies as atmospheric river trajectories on the west coast? If you add in the topography of the Transverse Ranges, does the natural inversion that continuously occurs in the SoCal bight create a locking mechanism for these dew points to stay below a certain elevation or impede the usual onshore flow pattern that has over the years benefitted SoCal residents with a cooler sea breeze/marine layer? This also is somewhat relatable to those of you in the Bay Area trying to gauge what is going on with the Delta Breeze. I have further questions, but it’s for fair discussion & I’d enjoy some input from Daniel or any others on this as we head for September.

      • IMO still leaning on SSTA gradient. When you guys down there have a SST gradient from SW to NW it rocks (and rolls). I’m not discounting the RRR because it was approaching from Siberia in November 2012, a few months before the BLOB found it’s happy place. Here’s some selected (cherry picked) recent wet neutral or weak +ENSO which all had an SST with recent consecutive years of much below precip for SoCal. Note: 2010-11 exhibited this gradient as well but in a different way.

        I have graphs but decided not to post if you want them just say so

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I would love to see the graphs, go ahead and send them over Twitter if you would like. I’m trying to look further into the localized anomaly.

  • inclinejj

    Noticed this a couple days ago. Someone named the fog in the Bay Area…Carl.

    WTF why Carl?

    • tomocean

      Karl the Fog was born as a Twitter account in 2010, by someone who remains anonymous. In this SF Weekly article, the account holder explains the origins, saying, “Friends were whining about the most recent fogpocalypse and I was loving it. … I’ve always thought of the fog as mysterious and romantic and looked forward to its arrival. Since everyone was complaining, I started thinking, ‘I wish the fog had a chance to defend itself,’ and that’s when I created the Twitter account.”

    • tomocean

      Karl the Fog was born as a Twitter account in 2010, by someone who remains anonymous. In this SF Weekly article, the account holder explains the origins, saying, “Friends were whining about the most recent fogpocalypse and I was loving it. … I’ve always thought of the fog as mysterious and romantic and looked forward to its arrival. Since everyone was complaining, I started thinking, ‘I wish the fog had a chance to defend itself,’ and that’s when I created the Twitter account.”

      • inclinejj

        Oh Wow thanks, never heard the explanation.

      • Thunderstorm

        Fog only looks good when its spilling over the hills or your up above it looking down, otherwise just plain homogenous dull. One other thing white knuckles when you can’t see past the hood.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      The Karl personality has really taken off in the last few years, the wit the writer uses on Twitter is very impressive. It’s been reported “Karl” has followers from all over the world, I believe a few out of air newspapers have also written articles on him. It’s common for most of the major meteorologist to use the name Karl the Fog in their forecasts. I’ve also seen more than a few Karl the Fog costumes come Halloween.

    • weathergeek100

      The bay area tries to embrace their foggy summer climate in various ways such as naming it.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    On our drive home yesterday, we went through Reno and when we reached the top of Donner Summit, it began to pour rain and hail (with lighting as well). Recorded video, but it does not caputure when it got crazy as I had to stop recording and drive with two hands. It was coming down so hard, highway 80 looked liked it was a shallow pool and had an odd fog type mist above it the puddling rain. People were putting on emergency lights in the middle of the freeway. Easily the heaviest rain I have ever driven in.

    Did a great job washing the car too..

    • CHeden

      The local coastal golfers like at Harding and Olympic club et al all refer to the summer winds as The Hawk. Anyone who’s seen their shot take a 45 degree bend in midflight knows that The Hawk is a perfect name. Just eats you up.

      • inclinejj

        I remember watching a Cubs game at Wrigley Field hearing people talk about the Hawk. I had to ask.

  • CHeden

    Heading home today, and going to time an expected convective flare up near Klamath falls…or he modoc county. Could be some significant boomers if I can find them through the smoke and haze and mid level stratus.

    • inclinejj

      By chance are you going to hit the upper Sacramento on the way back home?

  • Shane Ritter

    Yesterday evening was the best Show I’ve seen in several summers. Lots of lightning, big thunder, heavy rain, and a 20* drop in temps!

    • alanstorm

      Where?
      Last night for me looking towards eastern Mendocino Co was the best Lightning Show of the year so far, somewhat distant, but constant for an hour or 2.

  • molbiol

    Not relevant to California but the latest NHC discussion has Harvey impacting Texas as a minimal hurricane. However, what is especially scary is that Harvey may become trapped underneath a very weak steering flow as it SLOWLY drifts toward Louisiana. This could cause devastating flooding for those areas..including potentially New Orleans which is already in a state of emergency due to failed water pumps. This water pump issue has been known for quite sometime but, as is typical, was ignored and placed behind red tape. If the city floods, then someone will likely be facing criminal charges

    • molbiol

      BTW, the latest AFD from New Orleans is very disturbing and if I were in that area, I would probably be packing my bags and taking photographs for my flood insurance

  • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

    NOAA San Diego AFD- “Afternoon inland
    thunderstorms may return to the forecast by mid week next week as
    the upper-level high transitions back towards the southeast.”

    • molbiol

      After getting shafted during July, I will take the ol’ “Believe when I see it” stance on this one. The models have been horrendous WRT the monsoon in California and I still think the monsoon is finished for California

      • RunningSprings6250

        Ovah!

      • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

        I think you are right…,,however sept and esp oct can be great hurricane get sucked into the sagging jet stream months, bringing torrential rains (oct 2009!!, or was it 2008?) to Ca from SD up toward the Bay Area.

        So let’s see how this so far quiet tropical / monsoon year finishes.

        • molbiol

          Hurricane Ignacio in 2009, if I recall, did result in rainfall for NorCal

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    The Dumb Marine Layer hasn’t clear up yet.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Dumb? It’s what keeps the inland communities from being like Bakersfield. Emphasis on BAKE….

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I’ll take it over a dumb heat wave anyday.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Interesting that California has does better than some Southern states when it comes to tropical rainfall totals

    David Roth/ Florida NWS
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de1fd648f68bd1f791b80ea1c46bf3e15e5492e813f0c68c06a6491ec3e6fa0c.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      Where’s Alaska?

      • matthew

        It is roughly to the northwest of Washington State on the map above.

        No need to thank me.

        • Tuolumne

          No, it’s usually in a box out in the Pacific Ocean.

  • Smoky (no smell) here right now. Reminds me of the smog of the 60’s and 70’s

  • Amy Cohen
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Not good for the timeshare holders (of which we are one) of Olympic Village Inn. Likely they’ll put some massive condo complex between the mountain view and the resort, blocking the view. : ^ |

  • inclinejj
  • Thunderstorm

    Meanwhile at the Oroville spillway work continues on the crete foundation. Wonder if crete will hold up to a strong earthquake? No rebar added to the crete, just drop spread and roll like asphalt. Huge digouts on the ramp. Very deep in places. New technology?

    • Have they even touched the upper portion yet? I feel like time is running out.

      • Yes but they are keeping the very top slabs in place for this year. The lower part of the top chute is being replaced. They are putting in roll crete and with ‘stay-in forms’ and I’m assuming then the reinforced concrete slabs will be laid on top of the roll crete.
        I highly recommend going to https://pixel-ca-dwr.photoshelter.com/index and set up an account to see the photos in UHR.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      I don’t understand why they wouldn’t use rebar? Seems like a no brained but I am an armchair architect, same for weather as it is!!!

    • Darin

      AFAIK, there are no major faults nearby. There is Winters, CA (home of The It’s Our Fault Earthquake festival) which is roughly 100 miles away but I saw this interesting tidbit. It – the dam – created it’s own seismicity issues. ( http://seismo.berkeley.edu/blog/2017/02/16/oroville-dam-makes-its-own-earthquakes.html ) Cool in a unnerving sort of way

    • I’d be more worried about the dam itself with a strong EQ coupled with high reservoir levels. Earthfill embankment dams do not live forever.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    —————

    Special Statement

    703 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

    … Potential for extended heat wave with elevated fire danger this weekend into the middle of next week…

    A strong upper level high pressure system over the region combined with weakening onshore flow will bring the potential for an extended heat wave to southwest California. On Saturday, triple digit temperatures will be likely for the warmest interior sections. From Sunday through Wednesday and possibly longer, triple digit heat will likely be widespread across the valleys, lower mountains, and deserts, with warmest locations potentially climbing to between 105 and 108 degrees. There is increasing confidence that coastal areas will also warm significantly during this heat wave with highs mostly in the 80’s and 90’s, with the potential for downtown Los Angeles to approach 100 degrees at times. This heat wave will also likely bring very warm overnight low temperatures, adding to the heat stress. Many areas across the Los Angeles metropolitan areas will likely see lows in the 70’s with some foothill and mountain areas remaining in the 80’s overnight.

    While it is still early, there is the potential for significant heat impacts across much of southwest California including coastal residents without air conditioning. This will be worsened by the the expected long duration of the heat wave and warm overnight low temperatures. The hot and dry conditions combined with very dry fuels will bring an extended period of elevated fire danger to southwest California.

    Now is the time to make sure your air conditioning system is running properly. For those without air conditioning, it is recommended to take shelter in an air conditioned building when possible. During heat waves, it is important to remember to drink plenty of water and reduce time outside during peak heating hours. Also, never leave children or pets in the car, even for a short period of time.

    Gomberg/Smith

    —————-

    • Dan the Weatherman

      That sounds like a typical late summer pattern as the highest temps west of the mountains often occur in September. I knew the heat would return with a vengeance at some point. Summer never ends in mid-late August in Socal and any cool spell this time of year is usually followed by more heat and this time around appears to be no exception.

      • alanstorm

        Yeah, we were dreaming if we thought this summer was over.

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        From most years I can remember, about mid Sept is when summer finally lets go unless we get some wild early offshore event like we have had before; but normal years aren’t normal anymore so we’ll see!

    • I’ll try to have a new post on Friday–I realize it has been awhile!

    • Darn it!

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Warmer temps near coast?Only seasonal here according to forecast

      • Jim

        Which forecast are you referring to ?

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          NWS and TWC is surprisingly good lately

    • alanstorm

      Well it was nice while it lasted.
      Look like it will be back to Firewatch 2017.

    • Tuolumne

      Four months from now it’ll be raining now and then with snow in the mountains. Even in lowland areas, at times there will be frost in interior locations between the fronts. Hard to believe….

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Hello, wildfire outbreaks.

      • weathergeek100

        BOOO!!!!

    • weathergeek100

      And offshore flow too, right? At least a bit is what I’m reading on NWS discussions.

    • When there is offshore flow things are going to get hot on the coast.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • Yolo Hoe

      Wow — reminds me why I got the hell off Castle when the boomers came in Monday afternoon — will never, ever forget the helpless feeling of exposure on some cliffs with lightening striking all around many years ago — the atmosphere was charged and I was going to be the loser

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        That feeling of the electricity in your hairs is enough for me. It can go from very cool to very scary pretty quickly when you no longer can count the distance between the thunder.

        • Yolo Hoe

          You nailed it — was the feeling of electricity in my hairs and body that freaked me out and will never forget — up close and personal with Mother Nature

    • Thunderstorm

      This reminds me of when I was in Vietnam in 69 and a lightning bolt hit a rice farmer (doa) in a field about 500 ft from where I was in a guard tower. Came out of nowhere, there was a hill close by and you could see above the hill the anvil head of a thundercloud that must have been at least 30-40 miles away, 2 minutes later a water buffalo got knocked on its knees from another bolt. And of course the compound went on red alert (incoming). Incoming lightning bolts not howitzers. Have seen a few bolts travel some distance away from the main cloud a few times here in California.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Your story adds a new twist to alanstorm’s INCOMING

      • alanstorm

        On a speedboat with my dad in Aug ’77 when that infamous flood hit Bullhead/Havasu. We noticed our hair stood up, then a bolt came out of nowhere & hit the water not far from the boat. BOOOM!
        We hightailed it off the lake & back to the hotel, which was slammed by a flash flood later that night.

        • Yolo Hoe

          In other words, you nearly got carved

  • Who Killed Kenny Strawn?

    If you want some fantasyland entertainment, check out the 00z GFS for the first week of September! Entire state gets some measurable rain from the monsoonal surge including the north coast. However, I must remind you any forecast beyond 8-10 days is “for entertainment purposes only”.

    • Someone else

      I killed Kenny, although I was not alone.
      Monsoon has been a bust this summer, no reason to expect the lack of vigor to change.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      The GFS, two weeks out? I wouldn’t bet on it, unless I had money to throw away, which I don’t…

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    TWC is predicting 92 in Santa Maria on Monday, but other weather sources (Accu and NOAA) are sticking with low 80s at most. Which one to believe?

    Other than that, it’s still better than what Paso Robles will be dealing with. 100+ for over a week.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      NWS should always be your go-to.

    • weathergeek100

      I haven’t looked at the TWC and accu in years. I hate those sites. All for entertainment purposes. TWC is especially horrible. As 805 weather below and Daniel always say- the NWS should always be your source. Think about it. It’s the NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE!

  • PRCountyNative
    • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

      Harvey is going to be like TS Allison, but on steroids!

    • That might look like precipitation for DJFM. 20017-18

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Time for Texans to build an ark. Oh, wait. There’s hardly any time.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    Hurricane Harvey, can we trust him?

    • alanstorm

      Looks like it will stall out over SE Texas for 5 days- 12″-18″!!!
      Yikes! Unfortunate catastrophic flooding

    • Darin

      Harvey was a sputtering remnant, now a Category Two(Face). He may make a huge dent in Texas. It’s criminal.

  • weathergeek100

    Typical late summer heat wave coming up! Heading to LA this weekend where downtown LA is going to be in the 90s. Thankfully, skipping the 100 degrees forecast on Monday. What makes this heat wave very typical for this time of year is that there’s some offshore flow being forecasted which mean more people closer to the coast experience the heat. These types of heat waves seem to always come around late August through mid-September, like clockwork. After mid-September, heat waves get dryer with stronger offshore flow which REALLY benefits the coast (but may actually cool down the inland areas slightly). In summary, we’re basically inching our way towards Santa Ana season- the worst time of year in my opinion, but the best time of year to experience the city of San Francisco with T-shirts and shorts!

  • molbiol

    Its amazing how quickly these tropical systems can intensify given the right conditions. Latest from NHC:

    With Harvey now strengthening at a faster rate than indicated in
    previous advisories, the intensity forecast has become quite
    concerning. Water vapor images indicate that the cyclone’s outflow
    is expanding–indicative of low shear–and Harvey will be moving
    over a warm eddy of high oceanic heat content in the western Gulf of
    Mexico in about 24 hours. As a result of these conditions, several
    intensity models, including the ICON intensity consensus, are now
    explicit showing Harvey reaching major hurricane intensity. What’s
    more astounding is that some of the SHIPS Rapid Intensification
    indices are incredibly high. As an example, the guidance is
    indicating a 70 percent chance of Harvey’s winds increasing by 45 kt
    over the next 36 hours. Based on this guidance, the NHC official
    intensity forecast now calls for Harvey to reach major hurricane
    strength by 36 hours, before it reaches the middle Texas coast.”

    • Charlie B

      I read that the “Labor Day” hurricane of 1935 that devastated the Florida Keys went from a tropical disturbance to a Cat 5 in 36 hours. They call it the nightmare scenario since it takes far longer than that to evacuate the Keys. I saw that peak sustained winds of Harvey are projected to be 115. Given that a short while ago Harvey was projected to only be a Cat 1, might those winds increase?

      • PRCountyNative

        Yes, might.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Ocean heat indices in the Northwestern gulf are very high, plus wind shear is virtually non existent for the forecasted track. Everything is in place for a monster storm to emerge.

  • mattzweck
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Last night Harvey was a disorganized blob of thunderstorms. In 12 hours it’s gone to a cat 1, and in 36 hours it’s forecast to build into a cat 3 or higher. Forecast to move slowly N, NW into the southern Texas coastal area, it will bring a significant storm surge ashore, plus they are talking upwards to 30 inches of rain falling over the area and inland.

      This may be Biblical.

      • PRCountyNative

        What if:

        The entire CONUS rotated 90 degrees clockwise?? Like that command on your browser when a photograph loads sideways?

        The west coast would suddenly be the south/gulf coast, and big hurricanes would then hit California! The south coast would be awesome, warm, sealed off from the north, with great south swell and all sorts of tropical storms.

        Command R North America

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0428c1a4c27ee743788e4ef3082be44b3cbf628f7fb667074c183193b9b229a.png

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Hey, I did state that this may “be Biblical.” haha. What you’re suggesting is a radical shift of the magnetic poles and the continents following suit. I’ll take a rubber wetsuit, medium please…

      • PRCountyNative

        Is god punishing Florida? Will our senior politicians fail to make a complete mess of the situation?

    • molbiol

      just saw the latest from NHC and they are upgrading the forecast max intensity again!! This thing is exploding

    • honzik

      It’s really neat watching the eyewall form at the GOES16 website:

      http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-02-200-0

  • molbiol

    Comparison between the models and ensembles on the track of Harvey. There is still a lot spread which means all areas between Brownsville and Houston are at risk. Also, note the activity over the gulf of California: This is actually a weak low level inverted trough or thermal low that is expected to develop in response to the strong ridge that is expected to give us our next big heat wave. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cb3456b625e8fd1744460186387a8c39f47ae80c745e98756e8647fb7f2509a.jpg

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/422161ecc3e6284bbb3a477e8709f4e3e5e585e258b729220225b9a613fbf488.jpg

  • molbiol

    Here is an AFD from Corpus Christi that is downright scary:

    The forecast for Harvey continues to grow more dire. NHC has
    Harvey becoming a major hurricane before landfall on Friday.
    Wind speeds have been adjusted accordingly. With the slow movement
    of Harvey, flooding rains will be a major threat to the region after
    landfall. Total rainfall amounts will be impressive to the right
    of the track of Harvey. Amounts will be from 15 to 20 inches with
    maximum of 30 inches from Friday through Monday. Raised PoPs to
    categorical for eastern areas Friday night through Saturday night.”

  • Craig Matthews

    Got back yesterday after a most awesome trip to eastern Oregon to see the Solar Eclipse. There are no words that can capture what it was like as the totality of the eclipse approached and left the area, and how the sky had shifting light and color throughout the event. We had the opportunity to camp up on a ridge far to the ene of John Day, way way out in the middle of the sage and grassland country on the high plateaus of eastern Oregon. And there was no one else around us for several miles, being we were on private property, which gave us the silence. Our views were outstanding, with the exception of some high level smoke to the south and west. We were very blessed, to say the least, to be able to watch the entire eclipse from this most outstanding viewing spot. The most fascinating part of the eclipse, for me, was the minute leading up to the 2+ minutes of totality, and then at the end of totality where first ray of sunlight(diamond ring) shined through. Since we could see for several miles around us, as the totality approached, we could actually see the darkness approaching our area as the hills to our west turned dark before our area did….and then actually watching the darkness move across the plateau and overtake us as the last beam of sunlight disappeared behind the moon…all happening in a matter of seconds, literally!. This is a feeling I especially will never forget. The way the light was reflecting off particles down through the atmosphere surrounding the totality area made for an indescribably type of lighting effect. We could see that the high clouds and high level smoke and mountains far to our south were in sunlight while we were in darkness. And a strange lighting effect that appeared to move in waves across the plateau surrounding us toward the end was fascinating. At the end of totality, we could see dim light on the hills several miles away rapidly approaching us….then the beam of light….the diamond ring appeared, and the earth lit up with a dim reddish light. Wish I had a better way to describe this.

    • annette johnson

      I thought you described it well…almost like I experienced it myself.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Awesome description Craig. I had a similar experience in Wyoming. Neither photos nor words can do it justice.

    • alanstorm

      Glad you made it up there, Craig. Add that to the list of amazing things you’ve observed in your lifetime. Tops?
      I had stuff to do & couldn’t make it, but enjoyed a partial view from my place, which I enjoy every single morning I wake there, eclipse or not!

      Buddy of mine made it to Prineville.
      A stoic Texan, said he wept & hugged a guy with a man-bun

    • CHeden

      I did not see the shadow passage, though I was looking for it. The onset of max darkness seemed almost instantaneous. What astounded me was the perfectly symmetrical ring around the moon’s shadow. I did see the diamond ring during the exit moment. Exquisite.

      • Craig Matthews

        That was something that I did not expect, was how fast it turned dark, and the fact we could actually see darkness of totality approaching across the landscape from our high vantage point. Totality was so magnificent it brought me to tears.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    While we all keep a nervous eye on Corpus Christi and the rest of the Gulf Coast, it’s also worth noting that the GFS continues to hint at a decent Monsoon surge right after Labor Day, so after a quiet August, the Monsoon may give us a parting shot in early September.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd9a56ad5b923e6aa00a872ba2c31bc56d90c88b7e67e61aabdc91c58f7cb426.gif

  • DelMarSD

    Didn’t see the sun at all today or yesterday. Pretty unusual for late August.

    • Nathan

      not since the eclipse day for me in LJ…

  • alanstorm

    “Suddenly intensifying astounding hurricane…”
    …some areas expected to get up to 35 inches….”
    Welcome to our Warmed Up World of suddenly intensifying hurricanes, extreme rainfall & stuck catastrophic patterns (hurricanes stall, CA drought)
    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/national/tropical-storm-harvey-poised-to-be-category-3-hurricane-imperiling-gulf-coast-texas-in-direct-path-of-suddenly-intensifying-astounding-hurricane-harvey/2017/08/24/16b43004-88df-11e7-a94f-3139abce39f5_story.html

    • DelMarSD

      Holy crap.

    • Is that even possible? That would have to be some kind of record!

      • DelMarSD

        60 inches is like how much that area gets in a year. Crazy.

      • Nate

        For sure, if anything close to this pans out, it’ll be the most rainfall ever recorded from a single tropical cyclone in the US. The standing records are 48″ (Amelia, Texas 1978) for the lower 48 and 52″ (Hiki, Hawaii 1952) for the whole country.

    • Wow!

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Thats just under Crescent City’s average rainfall

    • Thunderstorm

      All that water has to drain to the gulf.

      • Bombillo1

        But it is very flat country. That water is going nowhere very fast, another problem.

        • V-Ville

          Yup – lived in Kingsville west of Corpus. It’s flat. Even big thunderstorms made a mess. Mosquitoes are bad on a good day and really awful after storms.

        • The surge might back a lot of this up like a tsunami sans EQ

  • Fairweathercactus

    I would think the ridge combined with the hurricane will leave us in a real bad sport where that heat will compress even more.

    • Pfirman

      This is indeed not good for sport, especially rugby.

  • Thunderstorm

    I remember when 20 plus inches of rain in 2 days turned the Sacramento valley into a lake for some time. 30 or more inches will result in a GEOLOGICAL CARVING EVENT. Everything next to rivers will be obliterated. Are the water managers making room in the reservoirs in advance or will they wait to long. If I lived there – well just look at Oroville or San Jose. The debris dams causing flash flooding will occur everywhere. You know what the astronauts said. Will the potus step up or will we have another Katrina?

    • Tuolumne

      It’s unlikely there’s time to make much room in the reservoirs. A few days is not enough time to drain a big reservoir very much. You can drain a small reservoir quite a bit in that time, but then a small reservoir isn’t going to make a big difference with this kind of flood.

    • Amy Cohen

      Federal, State, and Local government is incompetent and corrupt at every level. Expect the worst.

      • Tuolumne

        Especially the National Weather Service, which since it’s incompetent is completely unable to deliver useful weather forecasts such as hurricane warnings. They don’t even have a functioning website.

        While we’re at it, the local fire department is incompetent. They haven’t been able to put out any fires in the last 10 years. House and grass fires burn until the winter rains come, every time.

        My water district is incompetent. Most of the time I don’t even get water when I turn on the faucet, and if water does come out it’s unsafe to drink.

        People just need to stop being naive and understand that government is incompetent at all levels. There’s no other way to put it.

        • alanstorm

          Depends on what your definition of incompetence is.
          Functional Incompetence?

          • Pfirman

            He was being tongue in cheek.

    • PRCountyNative

      HWH AP

    • alanstorm

      There was a time when 33″ fell in 4 days in Ca: Dec 19-23, 1964.
      Carved things out pretty good in much of the PNW, however Sacramento flood control worked pretty good for that event.
      1997, not so good.
      2017, near catastrophe with that silly spillway thing.
      As far as the debris flows, yep, especially now with all these dead trees.

    • Darin

      20 inches in Sacrament valley??? What on Earth are you talking about?

  • Thunderstorm

    Here we go again the NWS just put up a fire weather watch for NW California starting Friday. Same area where all the existing fires are burning now. Get ready for a big smoke out as the plume will head south down the coast. Mother nature with F and F for the nation.

    • thlnk3r

      Oh it won’t be that bad. By next weekend we’ll be back in the 90’s and enjoying mai tai’s by the pool. I rather have 105F versus 30+ inches of rain. The Inland Empire can’t even handle 3″ of rain without flooding and mass hysteria.

  • molbiol

    Humorously worded AFD from San Diego WRT the heatwave:

    By Sunday the Inland Empire and high desert will move past
    the century mark, the lower deserts will head into 115 territory,
    the western valleys will be in the 90s and the coast in the 80s.
    Most of us will wish for the cool weather again…Meanwhile, the heavy-
    handed high will have the marine layer crying uncle underneath the
    subsiding air and a light monsoon push, very possibly to the
    point of nudging out the coastal clouds entirely for a few days
    next week. The monsoon flow underneath the high will gradually
    increase moisture Sunday and Monday.”

    • Pfirman

      ‘Heavy-handed high’? How does that compare to RRR?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Wow! Let’s hope it’s not an outliner.

      • molbiol

        I would prefer for that to be an outlier. Not sure why you are rooting for such an extreme solution

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I think he means what we’re all thinking here. Lets hope it doesn’t happen.

        • Sorry. My mistake. I had to edit it.

    • alanstorm

      Would pretty much guarantee $5 a gallon fuel for the foreseeable future.
      That’s prime refining territory

      • Ferg Morriss

        That will cause a bump in EV purchases…….a very good thing.
        For every action there is an equal and opposite one.
        Low gasoline prices have resulted in gas guzzling vehicle popularity, something that was unimaginable when gasoline hits its peak price a few years ago.

    • weathergeek100

      Wow!!!

  • molbiol

    Since apocalyptic forecasts seems to be the theme for today I’ll just add to the fun by posting the day nine operational GFS which shows 500mb heights exceeding 594-dm over Oregon and Washington State. This would likely result in one hell of a heatwave in areas where such extremes (used to be) are rare..

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/21ee74b95cdf4eaafe5a7dd0fa76301f226c4b4231a7308a41ecfc2974e666d7.jpg

    • Darin

      That’s right before/about Labor Day. I’m not sure I’ll want to BBQ in that heat. Maybe slip and slide for the kids and A/C.

  • mattzweck

    well guess it suppose to be really hot again starting this weekend through next week. it was about over 100 today here in high desert Lancaster area. it still about 80 out at 11:21pm. sorry if i haven’t been posting lately been helping my gf out with stuff lately. try to keep everyone up to date with the weather.

    • alanstorm

      You mean updates from Hell’s Furnace.
      4-5 days in a row forecast over 100° for way up here in Ukiah.
      At least now I’m finally acclimated to it.
      Just drink alot of
      ice cool WATER

      • Pfirman

        You’ve got a soul mate down here in Yolo who where it will be frying too. First one to Fort Bragg has to buy the beer.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Every day, those Sunday-Tuesday highs are trending warmer. Once was low 80s a couple days ago is now high 80s, according to local sources in the SMV. Time to stock up on ice cream.

  • Bombillo1

    Oh my. Look at the goes east rainbow loop here. The Texas storm has just done what was hoped it wouldn’t. The Loop shows nicely the steroid effect.

    http://www.goes.noaa.gov/dml/east/nhem/eaus/rb.html

    • Darin

      If there weren’t cities and people and ways of life involved, I would be able to appreciate the impressionist beauty in the render. Maybe I should l look for weather art on another planet…

      My other reaction, “My god… it’s full of rain and energy and wind and trouble.” (2017 a Harvey Odyssey)

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria Valley)

    We are under a Excessive Heat Watch. I never have been under thoses before.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    All eyes on Harvey.

    • Thank goodness for a couple of days of warning and preparation / evacuation.

      • Pfirman

        Here is a great account of one where basically only one guy knew and no one listened.

        https://www.amazon.com/Isaacs-Storm-Deadliest-Hurricane-History/dp/0375708278

        • Darin

          It’s a solid read. Though to be fair, the book does also talk about how the Cuban monks knew as well. IIRC, there was something about whether the telegraph lines were run to Cuba or ignoring the Cubans or something along those lines.

          • Pfirman

            Yep, they have a longer history there and lent the name too.

  • Imagine an early warning system for a major EQ of say 1 HOUR and the warning goes off at high noon. Seriously what would/could one do? No time to go home ifrom work or school. No time to clear shelves of water and food no time to fill up your cars with gas. Phones would be jammed

    • Pfirman

      Well, aren’t you full of sunshine this morning.

    • Bombillo1

      The actual warning system, for anything less than the state splitting in half, would be on the order of 2 minutes (depending on how far you are from epicenter). The only reasonable thing I have heard is Drs in operating rooms, train conductors could shut down etc. Everyone else are still hosed but can now reach for their Rosary.

      • tomocean

        It might give you time to run outside of a building or to floor it to get off of the Bay Bridge.

        • 2 minutes of everybody putting their pedal to the metal in traffic to get off the bridge? I’m in a mood this morning.

          • tomocean

            Ha! Doesn’t have to be everybody. Just you.

      • I agree but technology WILL advance to get better at predicting these further into the future and there’s no way that there would be a ‘governor’ placed on the timing of the warning. Thanks for reminding me about the beads. 2 minutes is plenty of time for me to…..

    • matthew

      OK, so start with the assumption that anyone living in a high risk EQ area should already have a week or so worth of non-perishable food and water stashed and you can remove that from the list of things to do in that hour. Both my kids live in proximity to the San Andreas and I have told them to always refill their gas tanks when they hit half-full for exactly this reason. So what is left to do in that hour? Get away from high risk areas (i.e. tall buildings with falling glass). Make sure you are in as safe a place as you can be given the time constraints. Buy a bottle of good scotch.

      • I always have a bottle of Oban in hand. Good advice! I tell my family to fill up if there’s a big rainstorm coming in too. Also keep some cash on hand.

        • FolsomPrisonBlues

          That is some great scotch! That and Lagavulin are my Go-To’s!

    • Nate

      The whole purpose of the system is not to evacuate people, but to get them to a position (ex. under a table, away from unreinforced brick, or away from glass like Matthew said) so that injuries and deaths will be reduced. A minute or two may not seem like much time, but it’s more than enough for people to prepare and move to a safe position. In California, you’re much more likely to be killed by falling objects than structural collapse in an earthquake, so even this short notice warning is extremely valuable.

  • cthenn

    Man, the bay area AFD this morning is depressing. All I know is I saw the words “heat”, “excessive” “foreseeable” and 110″… Sad face emoji…

    • weathergeek100

      I’ve noticed that our bay area office tends to really exaggerate on these heat events, mostly when it comes to duration. At the beginning of this month when the last heat wave broke, their wording (and forecast temps) specifically said that temps will come down a little bit in the inland areas- from the low 100s to around 90, so it will still stay warm inland, just not as hot. However, when the heat broke, I specifically remember Livermore barely topping 80 degrees when the forecast was for 88. The marine layer came in with vengeance after the heat broke.

  • weathergeek100

    WOW, hurricane Harvey! A storm that will stall for days on end. Now THAT is a scary situation!

  • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

    Am I the only one who finds it ironic that Harvey is likely a product of climate change (the rapid intensification and such) and will be barreling into a state full of climate change deniers?

    • Darin

      Come on now, let’s skip the fact that you are grouping the 2nd most populous fact into one way of think. Let’s also ignore the fact a point event i.e. Harvey cannot be determined to be a result of a systemic issue. Rather, let’s focus on the fact that Daniel has explicitly asked many times to keep the conversation on-top of actual climatological events. I know I skirt the line a bit but Harvey will cause serious harm to life and property. Let’s bring it back on topic.

      • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

        What’s not on topic about making a comment with regards to a weather event that is so extreme in nature that it’s more than plausible to suggest without climate change you would not see it occur? Are you upset that I pointed out the irony and couldn’t counter it any other way?

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Just admit you’re here to insert politics into the discussion on a Weather blog, as opposed to having a valid discussion regarding Weather & Climate. (we can all read your handle).

          • thlnk3r

            On a lighter note…..28 more days until Fall 😉

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            Here it comes. Already seeing Halloween candies at Costco & CVS. I have a feeling we’re going to have a very rough Santa Ana wind season though.

          • thlnk3r

            Oh please no. That is the one thing I dislike about our weather and that is Santa Ana’s.

          • Thor

            time to break into that Steely Dan song?

          • Dan the Weatherman

            We seem to be overdue for a bad Santa Ana season, especially with the hot and strong variety that occurs from mid October to mid November.

          • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

            Perhaps… Sometimes I just can’t help myself… WRT to my handle, I wish I could control it per disqus comments section as it’s not appropriate for WW but it’s highly appropriate for other sites I comment on… That’s why I rarely comment here anymore because my handle draws unnecessary attention here.

        • Thor

          “so extreme in nature”- its currently a CAT 2 storm. How is this “so extreme” in comparison to 150yrs worth of recorded hurricane history?

        • ThomTissy

          Opinion likes this, very misinformed and politically charged, hurt the side that would like to get things done about carbon emissions, etc. If every storm is branded the love child of carbon emissions then eventually people stop listening because though almost all are not climate scientists, you do not need to be a climate scientist to know that weather disasters have been occurring since the earth’s inception. Here, we’re talking about a Category 2 storm. Do you know what happened in almost the exact same place in 1900? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1900_Galveston_hurricane

          A category 4 hurricane.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          How could someone with a handle like “AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus” possibly bring politics into a discussion board about the weather?

          I’m shocked I tell you, SHOCKED!

          • AllHailPresidentCheetoJesus

            I explained a bit below but yes I hear you 100%… I wish I could set different handles for different disqus boards on different sites…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I find it ironic that there have been relatively few major hurricanes making landfall on the US over the last several years, and the first one that does instantly draws out someone attributing it to climate change to make some sort of overtly political point.

      Yes, climate change is happening. Is it the reason we have seen relatively few major hurricanes making landfall in the US over the past 10 years? Perhaps, but perhaps not. Is it the reason Harvey will potentially make landfall as a Cat 3 or stronger? Perhaps, but perhaps not.

      These things are no doubt being researched, but reflexively attributing it to Climate Change for the sake of making political hay can be counterproductive.

      • DelMarSD

        Agreed.

      • matthew

        My understanding is that Atlantic hurricanes go down in frequency during El Nino years (not sure of the physical mechanics). Could the overall warming of the Pacific, even in non-Nino years, be part of the reason for the relative calm in the Atlantic? That said, Pacific hurricanes have been pretty healthy the last few years.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Such a solid post SoCalWx…the wide spread sensationalism and unnecessary fear that social media has created is truly dumbing down our culture…Rational thought has vanished, replaced with emotionally based reasoning….

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Looks like RH may go up a bit next week.

        • Pfirman

          I upvoted him just because he used ironic and denier in the same post.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      This map shows Texas has always been the target of hurricane caused rain events. Too early to blame climate change in my opinion. Especially considering how few storms have impacted the US the last decade.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9d18c299465c44277adf3ef405f4055ded858ad001775c1b3107db3ddf259520.jpg

      • Nathan

        The one thing that strikes me as way off on this map are the figures for Oregon/Washington. Several years OR/WA get huge rainfall totals from decayed _western_ Pacific storms whose energy gets subsumed into a GoA low…

  • Fairweathercactus

    Hurricane moves to slow it can weaken just as fast as it grew. It will lose its source of hot water and choke itself on rain cooled air.

    • alanstorm

      That would be fine if it were moving through, but it’s not.
      It will sit and spin, pulling massive bands of extreme moisture onshore over the same areas not for hours, but for days.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Even if it weakens to tropical depression status or remnants, there is still copious amounts of moisture involved because warm air can hold tremendous amounts of moisture and the circulation can continue to entrain moisture from over the Gulf of Mexico. Therefore, heavy rains are likely to continue even after the system is downgraded.

  • PRCountyNative
    • Thor

      Its never good when a hurricane is the icon used…

  • alanstorm

    Get a load of the PRECIP MAP!
    These areas will likely be under water for weeks, ala Katrina.
    (That part of the state is basically a flat swamp with cities & refineries)
    Being that 35″ area is in the heart of the nation’s multi-billion dollar petrochemical industry, we’re looking at perhaps the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history.
    If the surge breeches the 17 ft sea wall at Galveston, it goes up the channel to disrupt one of the busiest ports in the world
    This is BAD
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6541e7fbb8e391e14d54e51c8e501fe3be223b7b86b349b6be5fd7e97bbf5551.jpg

    • Nathan

      Seems like the real flood focus is going to be south of most of the refineries/chemical plants. But still, 18″ is nothing to sneeze at.

      • alanstorm

        Double whammy of storm surge meets massive flood coming towards the ocean, especially if it goes retro back over the Gulf & reorganizes.
        What a catastrophe

        • Nathan

          All I can think of is: thank goodness it isn’t hitting New Orleans.

    • weathergeek100

      This is going to be devastating. I hope it doesn’t pan out to this much. Sheesh!

  • Martin (Santee)

    The upcoming week is going to be a hot one. Wake me up when September ends.

    • Fairweathercactus

      Even when I was a little kid I hated the month of September.

      • Pfirman

        Right. School.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    The rain is the biggest threat from this storm at the moment. & to add to the reason why it is so threatening is this. https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/901145401809453056

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Cal OES posted they’ve sent the Orange County USAR (CA-T5) team along with an incident support team to stage in San Antonio-they plan to be there as of late this afternoon.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      It’s going to be a chaotic week of events for the Texas coast.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Very worrisome. Very.

  • CHeden

    Back home last night after almost a week on the road. Just read C.M’s report, and there is little I can add. The magnificence of what I (and the rest) observed is etched forever in my memories.
    I reviewed my video that I shot of the totality, and here’s what I was able to cull out. Not too bad….I feared much worse looking at it on the camera’s display. Also, here a couple of pics of the transit from my projector. Note that the first image of the initial start of the eclipse also clearly shows two strings of sunspots. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c3a860c9ea1a915083760287b974d5a41efdd801beaad31269ee489f30926ab6.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/df2d27d8e4cdac8ab559b6cf0df960d6f4668f3335c7473a19766d3e9ffd4c3f.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f009d51104ce53e4003ed1c207708f4275a47553e3e4e5145bf525eb9dc8552.jpg
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8f5840d1da3f0179ebcc4191c81efef3491ea0bcff2548229880604bda53e46e.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Seems like so long ago, already…. Now, back to our current smash hit – Hurricane HARVEY!

    • Craig Matthews

      Your pictures turned out great. Such magnificent colors surrounding the moon’s shadow at the peak of totality.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Now Santa Maria has an excessive heat watch predicted on Monday/Tuesday. At this rate, it could be 100 if they keep pushing the forecasted temperatures higher each day. Add Hurricane Harvey adding Katrina-styled flooding in the mix. Yes, climate change is real. #reality-check

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Gotta love the GOES16.

  • Still anticipating a new post by this evening….

  • Wolfpack

    The latest Euro precipitation map showed a bullseye of 53″ of rain in 4 days, that’s not cool..

  • molbiol

    NHC:

    Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
    that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph
    (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Harvey is a category 3 hurricane on
    the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The latest minimum central
    pressure reported by the aircraft is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

    BTW, some of the longer range models have this thing re-entering the gulf of Mexico
    as a tropical storm and then making a second landfall somewhere invof Louisiana coast!!

  • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

    Sorry if this was already posted, but was this event confirmed as legit in SLT on 8/20
    “huge hail storm in lake tahoe on boat .. golf ball sized hail . destroyed boat and surf board”
    https://www.facebook.com/trevor.ricioli/videos/10155366908604845/

    • AlTahoe

      There was a twitter video of a major hail storm on Emerald Bay road around that time, so I think it could be legit. South Lake Tahoe had golf ball sized hail in 2015 that did a lot of damage so it is not unheard of.