Monsoon picking up over Southwest; heat & moisture across much of CA

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 2, 2017 2,949 Comments

A very hot start to California summer (except for the immediate coast)

Summer has been off to a very hot start across nearly all of CA away from the immediate coastline. (WRCC)

After a relatively mild spring across most of California, June brought quite the reversal. A prolonged, record-breaking, and unusually “muggy” heatwave enveloped nearly all of California for multiple weeks, and temperatures have only fallen back to average over the past few days. This remarkable early-season heatwave set innumerable daily temperature records across the American Southwest, tied or broke several June monthly records, and actually exceeded or tied the hottest temperature on record at a handful of sites (including Needles, CA and Las Vegas, NV). The very prolonged nature of the heat, combined with the presence of an unusually humid airmass over Northern California, made the human impact of the heat even worse–and also led to consecutive “hot day” and record warm overnight temperature records being set in a number of locations.

Interestingly, this searing heat did not quite make it all to the way to the Pacific coast–and while coastal areas in the Bay Area and Los Angeles area were still warmer than average, the lack of sustained offshore flow and the presence of relatively cool ocean surface temperatures allowed these regions a very localized reprieve from the extreme heat. This “cool coast/hot inland” setup is most pronounced during California heatwaves occurring earlier in the calendar year, when coastal upwelling tends to be strongest and when the natural “air conditioning” provided by the marine layer is at its most effective. Autumn heatwaves, on the other hand, tend to be characterized by stronger offshore flow and are more “isothermal”–with similarly hot temperatures occurring far inland and at the immediate coast.

 

Western ridge rebuilds; heat & and monsoonal flow commence

Strong high pressure will set up shop in a classic summer monsoon position over the interior Southwest in the coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

It does appear that Western heat will make a return this week. This, time, as the western ridge builds, middle atmospheric winds will turn toward the southeast over California–opening the door for a substantial influx of monsoonal moisture for the first time this year. As anticyclonic circulation strengthens in the coming days, afternoon thunderstorms will develop to an increasingly widespread degree over the deserts of northern Mexico and southern Arizona, the remnants of which will eventually move from east to west over Southern California. This is a classic early monsoon pattern, and it’s one that the global weather models can capture well at the large scale, but the details are usually rather hard to discern more than a couple of days in advance.

At the moment, it does appear that Southern (and possibly central California as far north as the Bay Area) may be in a generally favorable position to see occasional pulses of moisture and mid-level atmospheric instability over the next 2 weeks. This will probably lead to bouts of widespread mountain and desert thunderstorms, and probably at least a couple of shots at isolated thunderstorms across coastal areas. The timing is impossible to pin down at this point, as weak mesoscale disturbances rotating around the 4-Corners High will dictate the highest likelihood of thunderstorms. As usual, there will be some fire weather concerns associated with dry lightning (especially in the wake of our big heatwave).

Monsoonal moisture will likely overspread much of California in the coming days, leading to mountain and desert thunderstorms. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The upcoming heatwave won’t be nearly as intense as the last one, although it will still be quite hot away from the coast (and increasing humidity across Southern California may yield increasingly “muggy” conditions as well). There is a bit of uncertainty at the moment regarding how long the strong western ridge will persist. But there are indications that it will be pretty long-lived–and may yield a prolonged 2+ week period of relatively hot conditions and somewhat frequent opportunities for monsoonal moisture and associated convective activity (especially mountains and deserts). It’s that time of year!

 

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  • Craig Matthews
    • Craig Matthews

      Apparently this happened last evening…

    • Thor

      That is a big earthquake!

      • Bombillo1

        May the population of the West Coast be reduced by 50 % and render the place habitable again.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Can this wait till I get off this island! There are huge tsunami sirens all along the coastal highways here in Hawaii. I was waiting for them to go off yesterday. The beaches are quite eroded, and during high tide there’s little protection from the sea. Leaving Thursday for SJC, may the hand of the universe ward off all threats from this beautiful place.

    • Craig Matthews

      The Tsunami threat was cancelled.

      • Bombillo1

        Our dull summer continues unabated. You offered a moment of reprieve.

        • Craig Matthews

          A reprieve from the everyday fires too I suppose…This earthquake could have created quite a Tsunami if it occurred in just a slightly different location and depth.

          • Nate

            Luckily this was a strike-slip quake, so there was no real tsunami threat. Once you get the the western end of the Aleutian Trench, the Pacific Plate isn’t being subducted so much as sliding past the North American.

          • Craig Matthews

            Interesting.

  • Charlie B

    Reno NWS said that yesterday broke 17 consecutive days of 95+ high temps (it was 94). They also said that the record of 32 consecutive days of 90+ highs is in jeopardy. This is not Havasu, but still quite warm for these parts. It was especially warm because my temperamental air conditioner decided to take a break yesterday. It got its act in gear in the late afternoon when it saw my wife, Colleen B, approaching it with a wrench, screwdriver, hammer and bared teeth.

    • Craig Matthews

      An awesome wife there when your auto parts tremble as she nears. My AC went out right when I got into Redding a couple of weeks ago, right in the middle of the heat wave, such timing. My dog was very p/oed about the whole deal. Good thing I carry 12 gallons of water with me everywhere I go(lessoned learned from a while back) Had to keep pouring water on my dog to cool him off while I drove all around town looking for AC re-charge kit. Everyone was sold out for the same reason. Ended up driving down to Red Bluff to get the only one in the area, lol. ACs are getting quite a work out this summer!

      • Bombillo1

        My beater car AC died in Redding about a week ago. New AC $3500, car worth $3500. Ug.

        • Craig Matthews

          That is insane how much they cost. I am fortunate my AC unit is still good and access is easy to where where I can re-charge it myself. I tried my own evaporative cooling effect by tacking screens to my windows and using a spray bottle to spray them with water while I drove around the hot area of redding, lol. It actually worked, but lotta labor for the reward, and if I drove too fast…poof. I got a few funny looks from the locals, lol.

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)
    • Bombillo1

      So it will be 86 there and 58 just on the other side of those hills. Somewhere in between is perfect.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      No fog further in the East Bay but definitely a cooler morning low was 57 around 7am here. Much better than the 72 it was Sunday morning. Even if it only lasts a few days, it’s nice to get a break from the high 90s to 100s.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Had a low of 54 here which is quite chilly for getting into high 80s in the daytime. That cold air feels great at night and is a change from the scorching heat.

    • AntiochWx

      Yeah, the chill came in nicely overnight in the early hours.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      That looks refreshing. I am 18 miles inland so it has been several weeks since stratus last visited. Enjoy

      • Dan the Weatherman

        The stratus made a brief appearance here in Orange last night, but it cleared out later in the night. The same thing happened the night before, too.

    • Pfirman

      Ridiculously relentless that heat machine.

    • Craig Matthews

      Here we go again. Hopefully this being 174 hours out, the models will change their minds. If this heatwave does happen, hopefully that thermal low will elongate a bit north over the Norcal, and a southerly surge would be drawn up the coast…..wishful thinking at this point.

  • whisperingsage

    Long valley fire, which I saw from 10 miles away start, good winds that day, or shall I say bad winds, someone’s tire on trailer blew out, rim made sparks on 395. That made Facebook. The news still doesn’t know what started it..almost to Pyramid lake now, 87,000 + acres. I saw it go straight to Fort sage over Turtle mountain in around an hour. By the grace of God it never came north.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Good news was last night the IC reported no new forward progress with the fire. Now the issue is the smoke coming into the valley from the Detwiler fire in Mariposa.

  • Fairweathercactus

    It looks like the eddie will win out and keep the best moisture south and east of the area.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Low of 55F this morning in far southwest Davis — much appreciated 53 degree drop from the high of 108F at 1530 yesterday afternoon — only complaint is that was still hovering at 71F at 0035 this morning, so the cooling came late.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    July last year was very similar to this summer; humid but rainless west of mountains. The last 12 days of July 2016 were quite hot w/ 3 days 100F +. I hope temps stay below 100F since I have only recorded one triple-digit day [7/8/17] this entire year.
    Minimums are consistently warmer than average w/ departures 2-5°

    • Fairweathercactus

      You have to wonder if the cooler SSTs are helping to keep it stable west of the mountains the past few years. I do not remember it being to humid here last season with the exception of a week in June and a few days in July.. After that someone flipped the switch off.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Cool waters far out beyond California bight but SST are 70F+ even in Santa Monica/ San Clemente basins. Yes, last year June ended humid w/ SST above 70. Ocean temps stayed warm but drier air occurred in July 2016 until 7/15 w/ dew points up to 70 esp around 7/24 and easterly wave 7/30. This month is persistently humid though dew points are below 60 currently in Pasadena area this mrning.

  • DelMarSD
    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I hope there is more westerly movement than yesterday. Closest activity to LA was up in Big Bear; no cells in San Gabriel mts

      • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

        I saw a tiny buildup over the San Gabriel’s but that was it. There was a yuuge anvil over by big bear though!

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Tropical storm “Don” as related to our prez:

    “The hurricane center’s forecast discussion calls the storm “small,” ”not particularly well organized” and likely to dissipate in 72 hours.”

    Believe it or not, the HC is watching another tropical system (8E) in the EPAC which if it develops into a tropical storm will be named “Hilary.”

    I didn’t make this up.

    • Fairweathercactus

      Hurricane Hilary takes a track never seen in history and moves to Syria. It had unfinished business to take care of. From the AP,

      • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

        Hurricane Center is usually better with spelling. Dead give-away.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Ha!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Detwiler Fire in Mariposa has crossed over Highway 140. One of the points they had hoped to hold it at.

    They have posted new evacuation orders now. One had me chuckle a little..
    “EVACUATION ADVISORY HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
    • All of CYA Road” Almost sounds like a generic evacuation order….

  • Nathan

    Hasn’t gotten any airtime here in the US but I was just in Banff and BC is experiencing one of its worst fire seasons ever, thanks to one of the monsoon surges a couple weeks ago followed by dry, blustery heat. In the realm of 40,000 evacuees.

    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/07/18/537852651/wildfires-rage-through-british-columbia-forcing-40-000-from-their-homes

    http://google.org/crisismap/google.com/2017-british-columbia-wildfires

    https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=90563

    • Pfirman

      I saw some photos of stunned evacuees in Vancouver. Puts our own fires in perspective.

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      A few years back I was driving across BC to Jasper, then to Banff. Huge fires at the time and as we went into the mountains on a small road, the smoke got thicker and thicker to the point of very limited visibility. Didn’t know to turn around or not and the radio was of no help. Just kept driving and eventually made it. Fires turned out to be very far away but large. Everything smelled of smoke.

      • Nathan

        Thankfully we had 3 very nice clear days as the wind was predominantly from the SW. Then it shifted to due W and holy moly…from 50+ mi vis to ~2 mi in about one hour. Thank goodness that was our last day.

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      My family did a road trip from San Jose to Banff in 2000 and everything was on fire it seemed that year too.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Anyone in the Mariposa area? Looks like the fire is going crazy and they’re now worried about Mariposa itself and asking for any/all available engines and crews to the area….including waking up crews that were on their rest break and sending them immediately back to the fire.

    • Thunderstorm

      Just looked at yubanet fire news and Mariposa is being evacuated, no doubt Midpines is next and after that maybe this fire goes all the way to Bass Lake area where there is tremendous beetle kill pines. Looking like another Rim Fire.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      This sucks so much, hopefully it doesn’t head east into Yosemite NPS

  • Charlie B

    Here is some Tahoe area reservoir storage info (in 1,000 af) with current levels/max capacity.
    Stampede: 226k/226k.
    Prosser: 24k/29k.
    Boca: 40k/40k.
    Lahontan: 303k/295k (Over capacity; it was down to 3k last fall, or essentially empty.)
    Frenchman: 54k/55k.
    Donner: 9.5k/9.5k.
    Davis: 78k/84k.
    All in all, pretty impressive.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71c1222925112d14df25c5e4abb5c32ae577309282f269766d5f831c592976ce.png July 18, 2017 at 12:26 PM

    Incident Name: Detwiler, Mariposa County

    State: CA

    Lead Agency: MMU

    Size (acres): 19,600

    Percent Contained: 5%

    July 18, 2017 at 12:26 PM
    Evacuation Orders are in effect for the following areas: City of Mariposa, Mount Bullion Ridge Road from HWY 49N to CYA Road; Old Toll Road between Corbett Creek Road and HWY 49N, including Corbert Creek Road.; Mount Gains Road to No.9 Road including No.9 Road; Mount Bullion Cut off Road and Agua Fria Road
    from HWY 49N to HWY 140; HWY 49N to Baxby Bridge to Agua Fria Road; Area
    known as Mount Bullion; HWY 49N from Mount Bullion Ridge Road to Old Toll Road; Pendola Garden Road from HWY 49N to Old Toll Road (Exit via Old Toll Road only)
    What I don’t get is that the fire was roughly 7 to 8 miles away from the City of Mariposa as of the last update. Would they really be evacuating the city if it was that far away or has the fire just exploded in size that now it is threatening the city?

    • Jim

      I think the fire exploded today…it never even slowed down from its start. Based on where I was hearing the fire was today, it’s very close to the city of Mariposa now.

    • Jim

      And now they have broke a new fire up near shasta that sounds like a big resource order coming…the state is running thin.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        With the fires in the state plus those burning in the West and BC resources have to be tight between aircraft, federal resources, and private FF agencies. Many Cal Fire stations are already staffed by local resources and some of the dozers are now private operators because the state ones are already on fires.

      • Bombillo1

        Do you have a location on the Shasta fire. Weasel and I have a stake in this, we’re both off duty right now.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          broke out around 1:30-Resources being sent from Butte County as well as LNU (Lake Napa) and NEU (Nevada Placer) Cal Fire

          Location: Laverne Lane x of Saddle Trail, Happy Valley
          SCSO officer reports fire has crossed China Gulch near China Way.

          This is at Panda Way.

          SCSO evaluating evacuation planning for Clear Creek Road and areas north of the fire.

    • Admode (Susanville)
      • Pfirman

        Crikey.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    The weather in Socal is really dull today despite an easterly wave in SW AZ last night. There just isn’t much in the way of convection this afternoon, even over the mountains with the possible exception of the Big Bear area. I thought there would be abundant mid level moisture today from last night’s convection (easterly wave moving west), but the midlevel cloudiness has been rather minimal so far.

    • DelMarSD

      I though there would have been more convection as well.

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      There is one nice storm over the Santa Rosa mtn area I think but yea looks pretty dull….

    • Fairweathercactus

      I think a weak onshore flow won the battle today. Just look at the temps. It is way to cool for storms to fire.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    There was a question earlier about the Laverne fire in Shasta County, this is from the NWS Sacramento office.

    https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/887433739286056965

    • Admode (Susanville)

      150 and may be getting a handle on it:

      NorCalRedEngine

      New Member

      Join DateJul 2017Posts5Post Thanks / Like

      Re: CA-SHU-Laverne

      T912 on a load and hold. No divert has been released. Sounds like they are starting to get a handle on it.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I just saw that, hopefully good news.

    • Craig Matthews

      Could see it earlier today from the town of Shasta 3 mi west of Redding. Looks like it was burning in the rolling grass/oak woodland hills on the west side of the valley, and now, 3 hours later, looks like they got a handle on it, as there is very little smoke left in the area.

  • Thunderstorm

    The white spot on the infrared of the Dewitler Fire just doubled in size the last hour. Also 4 distinct smoke plumes on visible satellite.

    • Do you have a link to the satellite?

      • Thunderstorm

        Try this. Type in Live Tahoe Webam then scroll down thru the cams towards the end. The infrared satellite showing heat signatures picture will appear. This is how i found out about it. There are probably easier ways.

        • Nathan

          Yes there are, such as sharing a link….

  • Thunderstorm

    0 minutes ago. Coulterville being evacuated, guess that is 30 miles north of Mariposa. Some arsonist setting fires??

    • Tuolumne

      Or else the Detwiler fire is getting close enough to be a threat to Coulterville today. Do we even have an accurate acreage figure for this fire at the moment, or is it moving too fast?

      • Admode (Susanville)

        25,000 acres per south ops.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      There was a second fire that broke out, I believe that required separate evacuations. They were trying to send of the strike teams arriving in the county to that fire.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      This is absolutely terrible, this looks to be a very long term fire and I would imagine with the next update of number of acres burned that it will be in the range of 30-50 k burned. Hopefully this isn’t a second rim fire. 🙁

      • Nathan

        at this point hoping it’s only a Rim Fire…

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          you really feel it’s gonna get that bad?

          • Nathan

            Rim fire didn’t really take out that many structures…

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            True, but it scorched vast areas of the previously breathtaking parts of the Sierra’s. It’s heartbreaking to still take 120 to Yosemite and see how barren that area is now. Another idiot hunter warming up some SOUP to fill his little tummy that ended up costing untold millions to fight the resulting fire and devastation that resulted.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Mariposa/Fish Camp fires are notorious for 3 week burns. Grew up in a firefighting/arson investigating family in those foothills & it’s a very harrowing feeling for those local FF’s once one gets going.

        • Tuolumne

          Lots of steep canyons loaded with brush.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Absolutely. Oaks & sugar pine for days. Whole lot of foothill community up there that does there part in fire safety due to CalFire’s heavy presence.

  • Cap’n

    Oh man what a bummer to hear about the potential danger Mariposa is in. I’m sure I’m not the only one here who has an affinity to that gateway to the great Yosemite valley. I spent a lot of time around that area in earlier days. The Tahoe basin was pretty socked in with smoke the first half of the day until the wind switched. Anyone have a good link for up to the minute fire news? I’m pretty much getting all of mine on this blog and this site: http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents

    Stay safe everyone.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      You have to create a login, but it’s worth it: http://hotlist.wildlandfire.com/forums/18-IA-California-amp-Hawaii

      • Cap’n

        Thanks guys. One of the few downsides of not having television and at the same time being a Neanderthal on the world wide web.

        • Pfirman

          I would say plus on both counts. Have a tv but only the whip maiden uses it. No smartphone so no photos, sorry. Skills at Cro-Magnon level so not sure if above or below yours.

          • Cap’n

            I should clarify that we do have a TV that we stream Netflix and stuff on, but no cable, I don’t watch “TV” but there are times I wouldn’t mind tuning in for info on things like fires, World Series, and ShamWow infomercials.

    • Amy Cohen
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Also try YubaNet.comthe ladies that run the site are tied in with local, state, and federal fire agencies and the chp.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Not sure who saw KCRA’s helicopter over the Detewiler Fire but there are two distinct heads to the fire seperated by probably 5-10 miles. Gonna be a bear to fight as it’s so spread out. Sorry I didn’t grab a screen shot.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    4 more runs from the old operational GFS then it gets replace by the new GFS but not sure if this new GFS will be this for tropical weather and we still get too used the old GFS or if CA and other states will all so be useing the new GFS for winter storm forecasting

    • Fairweathercactus

      The old GFS has been running very well. Not sure why they are going to mess with it.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Today turned out to be a “nothingburger” lol
    89/ 68

    • Dan the Weatherman

      It was downright boring today. As a matter of fact the clouds looked more like fall than summer as there were very few midlevel clouds. There wasn’t even much convection this afternoon to speak in most of the mountain areas.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Wow, screenshot (not hi-res) from the GOES-16 showing the Detwiler Fire in Mariposa… Blew up at around 3PM this afternoon & has gone full fury since.

    Also to note in this screenshot is the heavy mid-level moisture Daniel is noting also below coming in east of the CA/AZ border. Models have been keying in on this heavy plume associated with an easterly wave that has been moving across the desert SW over the last 5 days or so adding increased instability to the region. This unfortunately is indeed the same easterly wave we were talking about just days ago noting it’s possibilities of making a run for the coast. This is however not the case anymore, but something else may be in store instead. I may follow up on a separate post about this development, but it’ll depend heavily on the models over the next 72 hours so keep on the lookout… Here is also graphic of the RAP mesoscale model showing moisture down south in the 700mb layer. In the meantime, this fire season is getting ugly. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1f3df8077d5e8320ff23731517fa3de99c7b7c2caac0d4053ba56be85f950ba8.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9467cd13b0808b0d40768b1fda3cfee598d741ec088e6a3956eed9c8436f7edb.png

    • Pfirman

      Well, you could just go full Tyler and just use the models for riffing freely. Worked pretty well for him.

  • Dogwood

    I drove up home to San Jose from LA today on I-5 and pulled over at the scenic turnout just before the 152 junction. There was a clear view across the valley of the very dominating plume feature.
    Winds were heavy allowing for visibility all the way across the valley, which is unusual.
    Sorry for the poor quality maxed out IPhone image but I thought it topical.

    • Dogwood

      Sorry kids Discus is messing with me. Carry on.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Talk about a monsoon season, our next door neighbor, Arizona, has been having a prolific one. Seems like every single day the sat. and radar images are LITE up with afternoon thunderstorms. At least someone is having an exciting summer! Look at Northern Mexico as well. Wow.

    http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/us_comp/us_comp_big.html

    • Pfirman

      Says the guy who has been posting from Hawaii.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Hey, not for long. Returning from fantasyland to reality on Thursday. Back to the heat and view of a street and back alley full of 4-plexes. It’s good to escape, but also good to know that there will be, and is, no place like home.

        But rest assured, I’ll have some more photos to share before I go.

        I may never come back here, but I’m eternally grateful for the chance to experience this wonderful slice of America. Next month, the credit card bill comes due…. NOOOOOOOO!!!!!

        : ^ )

        • Pfirman

          Yes, I was happy to see the place too…..once, heh.

          I have to hand it to the state supreme court there for giving Trump hell on his travel ban.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Absolutely Pfirman. HIGH five!

          • Pfirman

            I learned the hard way not to take an apple in my pocket for a snack on the flight out, so there are some other travel bans of a picayune quality.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      My wife and kids have been in Tucson past 10 days visiting family and reported pretty much good rain and thunder and lightning and amazing sunsets basically every day, which is good and very much needed in that fragile desert ecosystem. The monsoon is critical to the states natural water systems, especially in the south and eastern parts, but really the whole state.

      Interesting nothing much yet in terms of spillover in the so cal deserts and Sierra…. not sure what that may mean for the latter half of the summer and into fall, but definitely good for southeastern Az.

      That’s one of the few things I miss of the Sonoran desert, the strong summer storms and amazing sunsets and clouds that time if year.

      • Charlie B

        I was going to say something about the monsoon being little more than eye candy for us weather nuts that really causes more havoc than good but after your comment I see how asinine I would have sounded . I confess my ignorance.

        • Pfirman

          Time will tell, but I like where he went with that.

      • Cap’n

        Monsoon was nonexistent last summer in the Sierra and look how winter turned out. Correlations? It’s well beyond the grasp of my pea brain.

        • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

          If a normal monsoon for AZ ( meaning very little monsoon for Ca in general ) equates to average or above winter precip for Ca then that’s a win win.

          I’m just not sure if there is much correlation at all.

          Recalling the past in the build up to the epic El Niño…, bust… in the 2015-2016 winter, the monsoon in CA was very active and that all us weatherwesters were licking our chops in anticipation of a massive winter to quench the drought. We know how that went…

          Lenny and his hurricane calls. Jose mota, the sled…some bobblehead pole twirling guy in a shed in Tahoe….ahhhh the characters and predictions and anticipation.

          Then last year as you note not much in monsoon in Ca but a record breaking winter here. That was fun.

          So if anything the pattern this year makes me optimistic.., that is, more typical az monsoon, more typical Ca summer (i.e. Boring). Maybe more typical west coast winter rains??

          Who really knows, and after the brutal years of the RRR I think we are all on edge on the winter precip.

          aZ monsoon is like CA winter troughs. Critical yet highly erratic and extreme in nature.

          • Cap’n

            Bobbleheads and sharing a blanket in the minivan with a tired family dreaming of sleying, the good ole’ days. I’m still a firm believer in the ole’ coin toss concerning the upcoming winter. I really do hope we get some summer action at some point. The previous two summers before last were really epic up here, with virtually nothing since.

          • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

            I wonder if that RRR will return anytime soon, maybe it just shifted north last winter, who knows

    • palmsprings

      All we’ve been getting for the past 3-4 weeks is just humidity (dew points consistently in the upper 60s/low 70s) and a few cloud build-ups over the mountains. Still no measurable rainfall since 2/27. I would prefer either dry heat or afternoon t-storms, but these sunny humid days with highs around 105-110 are just the worst possible outcome…

  • Thunder98

    Won’t be too long until we see Santa Ana winds in the fall and the 1st storm system of the season, sometime in October or November at the latest.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I would say the first Santa Ana will be sometime in early to mid October.

    • Bombillo1

      In very north Ca we had our first modest rain on Oct 7th last year. Finished the month with a tad under 19 inches, a record. Doubt we will see that again no matter how wet a year we get.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Detwiler Fire went from 15.5 k acres burned this morning to 25 k acres burned by evening with 5% containment throughout the day. Wonder what night will bring, good or bad?

  • Thunderstorm

    Sierrafrontonline.com reports 3 new fires started between 4PM and 4:40PM. To the north of the Detwiler fire. Thought it odd that infrared satellite showed the white spot triple its size so fast. Looks like arson to me. Starting to look like the Rim fire. Need some monsoon rain ASAP.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Arson is my suspicion as well. Who would benefit from doing that? Or is it some demented you know whats, doing it for laughs? Or really far fetched, some anti-“liberal” anti-California zealots who think this is the way to make America “great again” by costing CA for daring to be progressive?

      • Tuolumne

        One could speculate endlessly about different motivations, but normally the problem is that the arsonist is, well, an arsonist who is motivated by his desire to set fires.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Whoever they are, I hope they get caught, and soon!

      • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

        I resent your biased speculation of people who might hold beliefs different from you. You might need to look closer to home for the true culprits. If arson is involved it usually has nothing to do with politics…unlike the finger pointing that ensues.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Very eerie picture from Tom Miller at KCRA. Notice the fire house and sign for the hospital.
    https://twitter.com/kcramiller/status/887518466063818753

    • Pfirman

      Hope the hospital is evacuated. The fire station is eerily quiet. Visiting relatives in Redlands in the fifties I saw fire like that in the hills to the east, but not that close. Made for troubled sleep.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I believe radio traffic said they decided to shelter in place and had a strike team surrounding the hospital. They also had staged two strike teams of ambulances if needed to evacuate but felt it was safer to shelter in place currently. The hospital is running on backup power, as is I believe the Mariposa ECC.

        • Jim

          Read the hospital has 48 hour’s of fuel and the fire is slowly backing down slope towards the hospital…slow is good !!

        • Admode (Susanville)

          It’s going to be a long night down there for sure

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    To add to @disqus_238W9Av0gQ:disqus, Whittier Fire is experiencing a flare up tonight as well. https://twitter.com/HJGalvan/status/887529022569279488

    • Jim

      Just read that it made a good run around 6pm but has since laid down and “should” hold tonight…fingers crossed

  • Danlyle (Grand Canyon, now)

    Loaded up the UHaul and moved the family to Grand Canyon on Sunday, turns out about 4 hours before the Detwiler – Mariposa fire started. Many friends back there. Prayers to them. Now in full monsoon season here. Daily rains and lower fire danger

    • annette johnson

      Beautiful country there, best of luck to you.

    • Pfirman

      Is your place safe? Hoping so.

  • weathergeek100

    Wow. Every single year, the fire season begins earlier and is worse than the previous year. So sad.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      And goes later too.

  • Where is Yosemites power supply that they say is threatened?

  • annette johnson

    Some crazy monsoon weather in AZ. It is
    trying to move west but just the tail end of one made it into eastern San Bernardino county in the Mojave National Preserve down to the Chemuhuevi Mountains near Lake Havasu. Not to much action but once again some cool clouds and a pretty sunset. Beam me up Scottie! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec48d1dad185151b900ca6e94276535025f093fb0b6393ac055fbde0011821f9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e77862f349d21ccb46a07e27e31f73b55d397bada6c7d5cb6fdc884861524123.jpg

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://twitter.com/warmstrongabc30/status/887545576908218368 This would be a crazy thing to do, watch and experience

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
  • matthew

    Just woke up to the smell of smoke at 2 a.m. In Truckee. Hope that it is Detwiler and not something new. Windows now closed…

  • Taz & Storm Master

    heavy smoke this AM here

  • Bartshe

    new study that points to increasing rainfall avg with increasing deviation for CA through end of century with warming:
    http://bayareane.ws/2uIMngm

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Shat do the mean when they say “with precipitation increasing by 0.03?mm day?1.” Do the mean precip will increase every day of every year by that much or it will increase that much every month or year?

        • Tuolumne

          That’s a long-term average rate of increase divided out to a daily rate, but there are going to be a lot of bumps and drops year by year. Of course we have more or less dry summers and that’s not really going to change much.

    • Tuolumne

      A 12% increase is effectively a big decrease when you combine it with substantial warming. It’s also effectively a decrease when you make it more irregular so we get more long droughts and sudden gigantic deluges.

      Despite the frequent calls by commenters here for more reservoir
      storage, there is not that much more capacity potential in the Sacramento –
      San Joaquin drainage for conventional reservoirs, relative to what already exists. The only choices for *much* more storage are going
      to be either underground or on the currently protected wild rivers on
      the north coast drainages.

      In the long term I think we’re going to need to set up a lot more large groundwater percolation areas in the Central Valley. These would be deliberately flooded during deluges that exceed our normal flood control capacity, but would be farmland most of the time. These will sometimes need to be located off the lowest lands (the easiest ones to flood) which often have the finest sediment sizes and the poorest infiltration – think of the rice fields in the Sacramento Valley.

      Long-term (think years) storage of floodwaters on large areas of flat valley land is not going to work because of evaporation on the large surface area. Water needs to be spread out then soaked deep into the ground where it’s safe from evaporation.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    MCS energy that Daniel noted yesterday has made it to the south coast & so has the instability associated with it. Big line getting going from offshore to Vegas & may hold true to some surprises if the swath of moisture makes it any further NW… At the moment, SD county residents are getting a good morning start. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/62d1aca73e71f59158adad6d25047f1163a545fb243d6299a09ed79ff194a649.jpg

    • CHeden

      Radar showing a nice cluster of showers now rotating towards Oceanside/Del Mar
      Also note an obvious Meso-like circulation over the SE Calif. deserts, Typically, these have a tendency to collapse once reaching California proper..however this particular feature looks like it will hold together. So far, lighting detection is only showing a couple of strikes SW (offshore) of San Diego and near Las Vegas, but I wouldn’t be surprised if some C-C is occurring inland as well.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/72456ea3f1d29f84df2f9babf8890db4a9f9268b2de78a3c588330e39c4a7780.png

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m amazed that it’s still holding… Lower levels have been having a rough time moistening up this season & that’s the case again today as NWS SD was stating the convection to be high based. A lot of stuff out there, but an even bigger area of air in the lower levels across central/northern California is acting as a blockade.

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      I wonder if the I.E. valleys could get anything from this?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I guess it is Rim Fire part 2 …….

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Unfortunately if Rim Fire scenario were to happen in this area… It would be a state disaster due to the population density.

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        hopefully not, in the last 12-24 hours Cal OES/Cal Fire have moved many resources to the fire, with many more requests pending. If I am reading things correctly they’re trying to build a very large “box” around the fire so it may continue to grow but their goal would be to have dirt lines and retardant around it (ie it burns to where there is dirt and goes out).

        If you’re driving on 99 today I’d expect to see many dozers and excavators headed to the Merced Fairgrounds/Mariposa.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Morning fire update-
      45,724 acres with 7% containment as of 0600 today.

      8 single residences destroyed, 1500 threatened

      4,968 total persons to date evacuated

      Projected movement is the fire will spread to the east, southwest and southeast.

      2,208 Personnel assigned but numbers are still being reconciled.

      ICP and Incident Base will be relocating to Merced Fairgrounds on 07/18. There will be a Mariposa Camp at Mariposa
      fairgrounds with a staging component at the Mariposa Fairgrounds.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Wish I was still living up there, I’d have a front row seat just due south of Mariposa over the hill with the exception of plume direction.

      • Tuolumne

        Probably a lot of that fire growth happened yesterday rather than overnight but just hadn’t been captured yet.

  • weathergeek100

    Non-fire related post: anyone notice the radar this morning in the San Diego area? Thunderstorms. On the coast (in Carlsbad, Oceanside, Vista). Right now as I write this.
    I wonder if the warmer SSTs are actually aiding in the storms that are developing just off the coast. You really need like 80 degrees plus SSTs to do that when it’s mid-summer (because the upper levels are warmer), but 74 degree water is better than 64, so I imagine there would be some help from the SSTs, albiet minimal.

    https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=nkx&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

    • Nathan

      It’s really humid this morning in SD

    • Thunderstorm

      Warm water should help a lot. Look at that circulation right over Las Vegas this morning! If it stays put til afternoon, not a good.

  • Cap’n

    Smoky morning in Truckee. Can’t see the other end of Donner Lake so I’d say visibility is around 2.5 miles or so. No wind yet.

    • matthew

      Same in the shire. Just noted below that I scratched the bike ride for today. Smells like I am downwind of a camp fire.

      • Cap’n

        I read your post below. I also woke up around 3 am and went to make sure there wasn’t something burning on the stove. The smell of smoke was strong.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Additionally, this is something to at least smile about today. https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/887696614906900480

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Yolo Hoe

      BIG smile — thanks for posting — was a great joy to hike amidst summer snowfields this past weekend

    • When the ‘simulated basin average’ is chosen it does look very good. Only 4 of 24 markers were well above normal. The other 20 were zero. When using the actual SWE for today there are 122 markers used. It gives a little better spread but IMO the % of normal for July on almost any given year is based much more on how warm temperatures are when the melt season begins to current date in summer. Imagine a ‘normal’ spring and summer temps what these numbers would be let alone the high snow levels this winter!!

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Light smoke here, also. Will probably move up the hill when wind shifts

  • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

    Radar showing a storm and showers near Temecula, looking dark that way, lets go!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    LAS VEGAS, NV CLOUDY 76 75 97 S7 30.07S

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • weathergeek100

      Uh, wow. There’s two little low pressure systems there.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I have Vegas friends who complain about humidity when visiting LA. Great weather going in southern Nevada.
      LAS VEGAS, NV LGT RAIN 76 72 87 S5 30.08S

  • Nathan

    Looking at Detwiler fire – I might be full of crap but I’m hoping that the minor silver lining is that the geography of the initial burn might be of some help in containing the fire – specifically, firefighters have a massive natural break in Lake McClure and the Merced River containing the northern flanks, and the SW flanks having a large, unpopulated runway into easily burnable but easily containable grasslands.

    The scariest aspects are the E and SE flanks – so much unburned fuel ready to go up, and easy multilevel (ie grass to chaparral to crown) incineration possible.

    Hoping that resources are able to pour onto the E/SE flanks. If the fire makes a real run to the E and reaches some of those unburned dead pine stands between 4-5k feet, this goes from bad dream to nightmare.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Found this article in today’s L.A.Times (California Section) which probably does not come as a surprise:

    “Desert, mountain heat sets a record.”

    https://www.pressreader.com/usa/los-angeles-times/20170719/281822873852829

  • Woke up to check and realize thunderstorms rolled over my area and I slept through it… Smh been waiting a year just for a thunderstorm then I sleep through it. Probably could have woken up earlier, but no mesoscale models were advertising this.

    • Fairweathercactus

      That is a crushing feeling. I remember I fell asleep during that amazing Christmas eve storm in the 90s. I remember being pissed off all day that I missed the lightning and just seeing it on the news in the morning.

      Also in that big El Nino year I was in Vegas in late February. They had a huge lightning storm that went right through the valley. I fell asleep for that as well. It was more like a summer monsoonal lightning show from what I saw on the TV.

  • Taz & Storm Master

    on the bright side the heavy smoke is keeping tempers cooler then forecast

    we have heavy smoke now we all so have ash falling

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
  • Chris

    Dew point reached 75 in Las Vegas today.
    I believe that is an all-time record if memory serves me correct.

    • weathergeek100

      That’s really high for an elevation of around 2,000′.

  • Will the Mariposa fire threaten Twain Harte at all? Asking for a friend.

    • Taz & Storm Master

      way too early too tell yet

    • Thunderstorm

      There is another trough coming in early next week, so everything depends on the winds and how long the winds stick around.

    • Allen Dodson

      It would have to cross a couple of drainages. New evacuation center set up at Sonora Fairgrounds; thought seems to be moving people north is a good thing, and once you get past Coulterville there’s not much until you get to Jamestown and Sonora.

  • I have a big heart for this area that goes back for decades. Mariposa seems to be in imminent danger.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0773970fe94d5a686107ec88f8f07708e3159e39410f625242ecdef8b5d10a01.png

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Looks like air quality will be going down in the Sacramneto areas and really going down in the Reno/Tahoe area. Bummer, the smoke is not good for the tourist crowd as would be expected people don’t want to go play on the lake or ride their bikes when it’s unhealthy. Hopefully we don’t see a repeat of a few years ago when nobody would want to go outside.

    https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/887777602013986816

  • matthew
  • DelMarSD
    • RunningSprings6250

      A, sort of, once in a lifetime summer event. I enjoyed 3 days of rain with temps in the 50s…

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I will never forget the deluge here in Orange that day. That was the heaviest and longest lasting summer rain I have ever seen here!

        • weathergeek100

          Did new green grasses spurt everywhere? I remember visiting San Diego in the following December and it was very green despite just a few recent winter storms. I was wondering if those grasses spurted after the July rains. What an incredible event.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I don’t know if it greened up or not, as I didn’t get out that much during that summer to see the hills. Others on here may be able to answer your question.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      I remembered that storm really well. Had loads of rain that day then humid heat and then very dark clouds by sunset.

    • Pfirman

      Talk about nicotine stains.

  • alanstorm

    Nice reprieve from the heat here, a wonderful 82° & north wind, fires in Mendocino County are done for now.
    100°+ once again by this weekend.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    I know we all love our dog pics here…so here is Cal Fire rescuing a dog from the Detwiler fire.
    https://twitter.com/CAL_FIRE/status/887805346105835520

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Fairweathercactus

    Smells like a new fire over here in Industry.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Were you able to figure out where the smoke is/was coming from? I checked out some of the local TV station websites, but haven’t seen any information regarding a fire in the area.

      • Fairweathercactus

        No I never did it went away quickly.

  • Thunderstorm

    Evacuation advisory all the way to highway 120.

  • Admode (Susanville)

    New fire in Chico. 32 has been shut down at yosemite drive. I have family trying to get home to forest ranch stuck in traffic there.

    • Jim

      They lifted evacs and released airtanker

      • Admode (Susanville)

        I saw they lifted the stiltson canyon evacs, how about on the north side of 32?

      • Admode (Susanville)

        NM, they caught it. Phew.

  • Thunderstorm

    A neighbor across the street just moved to Tahoe 3 weeks ago sent me an e-mail asking whats up with the smoke. I replied, Remember the movie ground hog day. The bigger the fire gets the worse the smoke. Not what he wanted to hear.

  • Thunder98

    The forecast high of 77F was a bust. Instead the high was 71F. 6 degrees cooler than forecasted! 🙂

  • HighWater
  • Fairweathercactus

    Clouds over the area today.

  • Fairweathercactus
    • Thor

      rain? those are ice crystals from a contrail.

  • RunningSprings6250
    • Dan the Weatherman

      What is that bright object that you captured in the clouds?

      • RunningSprings6250

        I forgot the name but it’s water/moisture/ice crystals in the clouds and with the sun at the right angle it gives off a rainbow in the cloud.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Hell yea Ian, been getting boomer up your way these past few afternoons?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Not a One! Today and yesterday started out promising with rising DP/RH etc…man this has got to be the worst streak ever. 20+ days with “chance tstorms” and nothing!

        I’m filing my complaint with NWS.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          Wow, that’s actually quite a streak… Seems this has been a harder summer on their forecasting skills than the summer of 2015.

    • Bombillo1

      Someone pee on the cloud? I hate that.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Well just found a site that has hundreds and hundreds of past Area Forecast Discussions for California from Fall to 1998 to 2013 ( the latest year I found). I know many people on here will find this interesting, have fun. https://groups.google.com/forum/#!search/STATE$20FORECAST$20DISCUSSION

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Thunderstorm

      Cannot even imaging being a firefighter upwind of that. Calfire firefighters most under paid in the profession!!

      • Cap’n

        The wind didn’t mix it out as well it did yesterday. Pretty hazy with smoke all day. I’m thinking it might be pretty bad in the morning when it settles.

        • Thunderstorm

          Hopefully this won’t last as long as the Rim fire.

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          I was thinking about heading up this weekend but visions of 2007, 2013, and 2014 with smoke filled skies and the smell are making me think twice.

          • Cap’n

            Was 14′ the King fire? The District almost called a couple ‘smoke’ day cancellations. That was brutal for a week there. I ran my kids out for PE one afternoon and got scolded later. It rolled in every afternoon like clockwork that week.

          • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

            I believe 14 was the King and 13 was a combination of the American and the Rim fires. Both fires were later in the summer as I remember August into Labor Day Weekend was bad….and possibly 14 was the cancellation of the Tahoe Iron Man (which never returned after that).

          • Tuolumne

            Yeah, ’13 was Rim, ’14 was King, and ’15 was Rough (literally).

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Fed fire fighters are the most underpaid, but I know what your saying:)

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • If only there was a very strong Monsoonal surge in SoCal that will have widespread rain and no Lightning.

  • AntiochWx

    Resilient ridge is resilient. The small hope I once had of a longer range trough is slowly disappearing. Sure it has disappeared at times in the past, but its becoming all the more apparent the RRR is becoming a more semi-permanent feature.

    • Shane Ritter

      The 4 corners summer High is NOT the RRR. It’s common to hang around most of the summer, until late September to mid October, when the sun energy begins to wane. And we have had several troughs, including the weak one Tuesday. It’s just been hot this summer.

      • AntiochWx

        I agree that the 4 corners high is a typical summer feature and the the RRR that came during winter months are geographically different. However, there is no denying more prominent ridging is occurring in the SW and west coast regardless of seasonal variations.

  • Nathan

    600dB heights and 120 deg in the Sac valley in fantasyland. That ridge better die and die fast.

    • Wow, you meant that literally.

      My guess is that this may have to do with the new surface parameterizations implemented with the GFS update today (i.e., they may be producing too high of surface temps). But then again, a 600dm+ ridge would be pretty exceptional. Definitely looks like another big heat surge, at a minimum. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/05762b0c73a7c055e283ef2ea42b370c72ae009f8f516a8dbeea468398442f62.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3345778de1c46d8a1627a10d4787a131bbc46a2545fd9d6ec6e64e0c66c2e0f5.png

      • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

        Ugh, that’s not a good sign. Have to be in Paso on the 2nd to a concert.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I’m guessing error as well. One frame of the 00Z (Hour 288 or August 1st) was showing MacKerriker State Park just a little over 7 miles north of Fort Bragg a whopping 129ºF… This discrepancy kind of makes me appreciate our other heat waves compared to some ugly ridge bringing temps from hell to the North Coast. Folks in the PNW are beginning to join the SW when it comes to feeling the summer’s intense record heat more than I can count at this point.

        • Gotcha but the ridge needs to calm down or die and die fast as Nathan said regardless of what surface temps are forecast.
          IMO what’s happening the EPAC may be a result of that wave coming up and through(?) the EQ near SA?

          Past few weeks we’ve had a big +AO +NAO which I think might be more the cause of the heat we’ve been having over most all of CONUS and including AK.

          I’m getting way over my head probably.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Yea, it’s not a west coast thing this year. Agree with you in regards to teleconnection correlation on the ridge, & I agree, this is not your west coast persistent ridge. This one want everybody in on the heat. I haven’t checked the 06Z/12Z yet.

          • FWIW GEFS and GEPS put a 594+ centered over Las Vegas and ‘only a 591 over the 2/3 of CA. lol 🙂

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Seems more in line… Huge plume of moisture associated with this as well in the LR. Far out of course.

    • Oh boy……..

  • Bombillo1

    https://phys.org/news/2017-07-sea-temperature-contributing-droughts.html

    Phys.org, my favorite site for good reading, has published another paper talking about SST fluxuations in themselves causing drought in California. Previously I was gun shy of just high sst and blobs. N PAC and N Atl having SST bouncing and causing droughts here and in eastern Mediterranean. The only thing I am not seeing is the extreme cold that these studies keep predicting, unless our little odd June 4 to 11 cold snap ( approx dates ) was our bout with extreme cold. Of any extreme temp anomalies that we might be subject to it is the high ones that are much more prevalent, or so it seems to me.

    • Persistent ridging is going to happen a little above and a little NE of persistent relative warmer SST in North Pacific IMO. The RRR came down through Russia at same time blob swept in from West Pacific. I could bore you with examples.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for the link.

  • Shane Ritter

    If the CFSV2 acts like it did this last winter, then this is a good sign! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18c0a74be300cde2d5c91f3552cd1739cb5e668071255d927aeb2581c76f9c82.png

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Interesting. CFS does a better job with its SST guidance (handled the SSTA’s pretty well with the 2015/16 El Niño) than it does with its seasonal precipitation outlooks. Those seem to end up almost 180° opposite from reality, making it a contrarian indicator.

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Why do we even use the CFS for weather forecasting? Did it used to be more accurate? If not, we might as well be getting our precipitation predictions from the farmers almanac.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          CFSv2 isn’t for weather “forecasts”, but more for Seasonal guidance, looking months ahead.

          GFS, ECMWF, etc., are the models that are used for weather forecast guidance. I’d agree the CFSv2’s precip guidance looking ahead a month or more has been akin to a coin toss over the past couple of seasons.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Did the CFSv2’s precip guidance used to be more accurate at some point?

  • AlTahoe

    The smoke last night was horrible in South lake Tahoe. It has cleared out this morning. I also ran into another bear on this morning’s dog walk. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/799dd9f18975e391d52b53d308934bcbbdc88d8afe4aa3727a28828d70b0265c.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c58239df3e7629a2377d4ce59ed74da422d27f5a1ce58e8da32545a90dddf52.jpg

    • annette johnson

      Wow. Fingers crossed on increased containment. Regarding the bear…when you are out walking your dog, how does your dog react when he sees a big fella like that, and how do the bears react?

      • AlTahoe

        My big lab just sits and watches. He was off leash and the bear was within 10′ of us at one point and he doesn’t care. Lol

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    For those interested Cal OES posted the updated list of OES resources at fires throughout the state.
    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4DMGFrD0StOWU8zZHFLbFphdVU/view

  • matthew

    Feels downright autumn-like this morning – crisp, clear, cold. Mid-30’s in Truckee to start the day. Felt like September for a minute.

  • Article from NASA regarding the earth’s wobble. It takes many millennia to make cycle or orbit, yet there are small fluctuations within a century or two that are tied to water loss and gain in an area in Eurasia. Apparently it’s not because of loss of mass from Greenland melting nor Antarctica as was thought.

    PS Bombillo1 can you provide the full link to your post below?

    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6332

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Detwiler Fire Update: 73,000 acres, 10% containment ( 3% up from yesterday morning), 45 structures destroyed and 3,185 people battling the fire.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This is gonna be a rough one…

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Gar Woods camera from Lake Tahoe this morning really showing the smoke settling into the Tahoe region. Looks like not many people out today, taking the advice to stay inside when possible due to the air. Mathew, Charlie, Cap’N how are things that way?
      http://www.garwoods.com/webcam.html

      • matthew

        Not too bad in my ‘hood. Just finished a 30 mile bike ride up to Stampede and there was just a little haze for most of the ride but not enough to keep me off the bike. It really depends on the winds. Yesterday started out rotten, but had mostly cleared out by early afternoon. I did some errands down in Reno yesterday morning and it was like being on the inside of a barbeque – hot and smoky.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Stratus briefly made it into the San Gabriel valley this warm/ humid morning. SST in the 70’s

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Saw this article on how the Amazon rain forest can create rain through
    transpiration.

    https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=6897

    It mentions that much of the forest would not generate enough rain over the year if not for the transpiration caused precipitation and that deforestation is probably a cause of the drop in transpiration and the rainy season now starting a month later than it did in the 1970s. This makes me wonder why we don’t change the push on climate change to something bigger, to save the damn planet. What good is it if we lower our carbon footprints and by the time its done, most of the major ecosystems in the world have been destroyed. I believe hundreds of species go extinct daily and most could care less.

    We should not abandon the climate change cause, just pointing out that we are selfish since we only care about climate change due to how it effects humans specifically. Yet, we let all these other destructive things to occur without blinking an eye.

    • PRCountyNative

      Agreed.

      Just stop population growth, capitalism, and human nature, we’ll be set!

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        My fear is it seems single world order with strict enforcement of how we live would be required. Which basically means we would become an authoritarian society. Being told, where to live and work, when and if you can procreate, what you can eat, what you can buy, etc. This might be the answer, but it certainly is not a world I want to live in. I think you nailed it when you said “Human Nature”. I am not optimistic that humanity will change without a global calamity like we have never seen.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Nature will take care of it all by itself. Like it has from the beginning. Only problem is we may not like the solution Nature serves up. The Biosphere has faced worse challenges than this, and will be here long after we are gone.

        • PRCountyNative

          Agreed.

          What species doesn’t capitalize on available resources to maximize reproduction?

          When does nature NOT in turn impose limits on said species, as you note?

          Enjoy it while you can. Get out and enjoy some fabulous California Weather!

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            All true. But I think we’re a unique species in that we can assess our situation and make decisions that will result in a better outcome if we want to. The Anaerobic Cyanobacteria that “poisoned” our CO2-rich atmosphere with Oxygen 2 1/2 billion years ago had no clue that they were poisoning themselves into mass extinction, and didn’t have the wherewithal to do anything about it even if they wanted to.

          • PRCountyNative

            So we’re at 7 billion and counting… when should we be expecting this?

            We make decisions within parameters; those parameters do not encompass the entirety of the situation. Just like yeast.

            Animals were a strategy from plants to burn oxygen and provide C02.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            People tend to argue over what the maximum sustainable population is before things can no longer be sustained. Waiting until we get there may not be the best course of action, but that’s probably exactly what we’ll do.

            I don’t know how far ahead of the forward bow the iceberg is, but it’s probably not a good idea to go full steam ahead and leave it up to the iceberg to decide how things will be handled. I don’t have the solutions either, I’m just looking out the porthole seeing the iceberg on the horizon, wondering if we’ll choose to alter our course, as well as wondering where the heck they keep the life jackets.

          • PRCountyNative

            The iceberg is in the rear-view mirror, waaaay back there.

            Does ‘overshoot’ ring a bell?

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            You missed the general point of my Titanic analogy, but I’ll re-frame it so that you don’t get distracted by semantics – We’re on a road headed straight towards a fire…

          • PRCountyNative

            And the critical mass where population can no longer be sustained happened billions of people ago.

            Know when Wily Coyote has already run off the cliff, overshot? And he looks back at the edge of the cliff. That’s us.

            Just because we haven’t landed doesn’t mean we are not already falling.

        • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

          She will need a few million years to recover from this mass extinction, but nevertheless she will!

      • Glad we didn’t start 100 years ago!

    • gray whale

      We agree!

      So often the AGW arguments are assumed to represent the end all be all of what one might call “environmentalism” — I think that’s a major mistake. Great post.

    • Nathan

      Bingo. “Climate change” as a concept is probably the absolute worst agent to use for environmental causes.

    • Cap’n

      Cheeseburgers or Rainforest; I think we choose cheeseburgers

    • jstrahl

      “we only care about climate change due to how it effects humans specifically. Yet, we let all these other destructive things to occur without blinking an eye.” BINGO!!
      We already are in the midst of a sixth great extinction, driven by human-caused ecocide and human-driven climate change. Yet look at all the howls which arose when a fairly mild article was posted about this in New York Magazine. People prefer to think that they can keep doing what we’ve been doing and the bills won’t come due for decades or centuries. The bill is at the door.

      • PRCountyNative

        I still see birds and deer….?

        • Tuolumne

          Imagine a Martian arriving on Earth and landing in the worst slum. They see lots of people, clothed, cooking meals, etc. Their reaction? ‘Why look at these humans, they’re doing just fine.’

          Or maybe they go to a nursing home and see residents breathing, eating, etc. and decide that those people are doing just fine.

          Seeing birds and deer out in nature and then concluding that nature is doing just fine is just as erroneous as the assessments made by my hypothetical Martians. You have to look at the big picture, the losses (which most people have no idea of) that have already been incurred, and the adverse trends and their likely consequences.

          That said, the bill is not at the door yet. Young people will see the bill.

          • alanstorm

            HAHA Tulomne, great point. We ARE thriving. It’s all relative.
            I always wondered what the Martians would say to each other if they landed in the middle of a big WWF match:
            “Zlorf, I believe our experiment has gone awry. Time to exterminate”

      • Thor

        “fairly mild article”

        ?? it was a description of worst case scenarios…hard to call that mild. A lot of climate scientists feel that the article was over-the-top fear mongering.

        https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/12/scientists-challenge-magazine-story-about-uninhabitable-earth/?utm_term=.841be0e76d88

        Here is a review of the article with a quote from Daniel:

        “focuses almost exclusively on worst case scenarios. In doing so, it provides a compelling narrative of what could happen in the future, but does not accurately characterize the likelihood of particular outcomes relative to what is justifiable based upon existing scientific evidence.”

        https://climatefeedback.org/evaluation/scientists-explain-what-new-york-magazine-article-on-the-uninhabitable-earth-gets-wrong-david-wallace-wells/

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        I don’t believe the ecocide has been caused by the warming planet. Meaning, if we stopped physically destroying the various habitats, I think most animals could adapt to a warming world. Yes, some will be negatively effected, but areas that could never support life might be able to. I am not saying climate change is good, but that I don’t believe lowering our carbon footprint will actually solve the extinction issue. I believe loss of habitat it the biggest issue and most have no clue the scale at which we are turning forests into grazing land or for residential development. In 50 years, we have taken the percentage of land on earth covered by rain forest from 15% to 6%.
        http://www.rain-tree.com/facts.htm#.WXDteogrJEY

        • Nathan

          Agreed. Frustrates me that for all the howls about climate change, if we put 1/10th of the reparations money or investments in solar panels/green energy into brute force invasive species eradication, research, and superfund site cleanup we’d literally save loads of ecosystems TODAY. Human caused global warming is definitely a certain truth but it’s being used as a bogeyman for political purposes for ultimately very little gain.

          • thlnk3r

            Going 100% Solar is a nice idea but is anyone thinking about the infrastructure required to recycle and properly dispose of the material after it ages? We’ll find out in 30 – 50 years. Is it really Green Energy from start to finish? 😉

          • matthew

            One of my careers was in the solar energy industry. Without a huge breakthrough in energy storage, 100% solar is simply not possible. My solution – nuclear for baseload, wind+solar to provide part of the peak demand, and a bit of nat-gas generation for both peak demand and things like frequency regulation.

          • AntiochWx

            welcome to tesla battery storage, its going to happen 🙂

          • matthew

            I have a 6kW solar array on my home. Over the course of a year I produce about 100% of what I consume. The problem is the seasonality. In the summer my average daily production is over 2X my consumption. Opposite in the winter (I am an extreme case with all of the snow). If I were to self-supply I would need about 4000 kWh of storage or 300 of the current generation of Tesla residential batteries.

            Yes, I am a corner-case but the problems only become greater when you talk about grid-scale storage.

          • PRCountyNative

            No one is arguing for or proposing 100% earth-based solar.

          • Nathan

            I think you misread my comment – I’m suggesting we take money out of renewables eg solar unless they’re truly renewable and put it into ecosystem “repair” research/invasive species eradication.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Yep. We were all asked to use fluorescent light bulbs, then ten years later, are told they are poisoning our ground water with mercury….

          • AntiochWx

            That’s the thing, just invest in the correct infrastrucure to recycle everything, not just solar waste. Honestly zero waste could be had if the heart was in it, instead greed and uncaring people ruin everything that we could enjoy instead. Everything is recyclable if we take the time and money to do it.

          • PRCountyNative

            glass, aluminum, and silicon?

        • PRCountyNative

          Yep.

        • alanstorm

          It may not go in such a linear projection as we might expect. A warmed globe may kill us off on a more subtle way:
          warmed globe=more mosquitos= unstoppable plague.
          That would put a stop to the carbon footprint.
          ….. at least for a few thousand years

        • jstrahl

          The RATE of warming is making it impossible for plants and animals to adapt.And the rate is going exponential.

        • matthew

          Warming is just part of our species-wide attempt at suicide. For example, I read a paper in the recent past (from Princeton???) which projected that the mass of the plastic garbage that we have/are putting into the oceans will exceed the mass of the sea life by 2050. For anyone under 30, the idea of wild-caught seafood will be a quaint memory later in your lives.

          • alanstorm

            And as the political mudwrestling goes on over GW-AGW, something as awful as this goes under the radar. Probably the most disgusting thing happening on this planet!
            Add to that overfishing, whaling & people eating the fins off of sharks.
            UGGGHH!!
            Any happy weather news??

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            Great points. Its scary how little we know about our oceans ecosystems, so I bet the damage we are doing there is even worse then on land. The whole “out of sight, out of mind” issue.

    • Bombillo1

      I brought up this issue of evapotranspiration in relation to Ca climate/weather and was dismissed by Daniel. Apparently no one but me is concerned about the affects of shutting down Ag to support more population. I know these issues go straight to political and religious views but not talking about it is going to eventually destroy the host.

      • Tuolumne

        I think the effect of evapotranspiration depends on the climate and environment in question. The Amazon Basin gets its precip from thunderstorms which largely use locally generated atmospheric moisture. Lose the evapotranspiration and you mostly lose the water source.

        Our situation here is very different. Our precip is almost all coming from atmospheric moisture generated by the ocean and transported over us by fronts and low-pressure areas. Our main evapotranspiration season is also our dry season when we get little rain.

        I’ve previously heard farmers claiming that their irrigation goes back into the air and falls back out over the Sierra, but this is just not a big part of how our climate works. In a different climate, sure. But we are here in our distinct Mediterranean climate. That’s what matters.

      • Very little of CA’s precipitation is caused by local evaporation (instead, variations come from shifts in large-scale Pacific storm track), and so the presence/absence of ag-related ET represents a vanishingly small fraction of the total variability. We’re not atmospheric moisture limited in California–we’re “storm limited.” The underlying dynamics in a moist, tropical convective regime like the Amazon (where nearly all precipitation comes in the form of diurnal thunderstorms) is fundamentally different, and is indeed highly dependent on moisture recycling via forest evapotransipiration. Apples to oranges!

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      Im a believer at this point, but I’m not entirely convinced we can realistically do anything about CC. The gas will already be in the air for thousands of years, and will cutting the worlds CO2 production by a whopping 25% really even do anything? Of course the short answer is “stop creating CO2”, but is it even possible with our population exploding and energy demands constantly increasing. Green energy is great at times, but is it really a feasible replacement for the world yet? I’m not sure. If only we could get fusion right and unlimited energy…..

      • PRCountyNative

        It is a feasible replacement for the world – non-carbon/renewable energy. But as stated below, that won’t solve our problem. Not when we use the energy for cable news, more cars, and suburban sprawl. Energy drives the destruction.

      • ben

        If we spent our military budget on renewable energy instead, or even just half, we could be off fossil fuels in a decade.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Strong “Climate Change” legislation supporters I’ve noticed are not genuinely concerned about the tangible health of the Earth, but fear that their “world” or way of life is threatened. Which is why I’m skeptical in the intent of the dialogue which mostly derives from “big money”…

      I see much more integrity in the non commercial aspect of real infrastructure change based on the permaculture way of life which takes the fiat control out of the equation at the local level…IMHO it all starts with healthy soil and sustainable disciplines…once the knowledge of care taking the land is outside of the profit margin it will start a domino effect…

      The mono agricultural and livestock industry is the most destructive aspect of our society…

      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Yep. Since we are not all going to become vegans overnight, maybe we need to get more Star Trekian and use technology to allow us to have some of the things we like without destroying earth. An example, growing meat in a lab…

        http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/08/lab-grown-meat-inches-closer-us-market-industry-wonders-who-will-regulate

        • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

          I understand my viewpoint is very “utopian” and not practical, but I’m just trying to personally start something small because looking at the run away freight train that is our industrial system is so entrained and to big to comprehend at the macro level…

          I do agree that science can relive some of that burden or weight.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            I agree with your ideas. Was pointing out that if we cannot change what people want (ie meat), maybe we change the way we produce and deliver what they want.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            Copy that.

          • PRCountyNative

            …And science (‘technology’) can enable us to more efficiently burn our available resources, find new ones, and burn those too.

            At a nascent level, science is neutral. Science is a process. We typically steer science towards faster cars, bigger bombs, more realistic television sets.

            I agree climate change legislation tends to stand in for other environmentally focused efforts. It’s sad.

      • Mattias Dahlström

        The Big Money aim to control the carbon exchanges, and be active investors on the same time. The market place will be enormous, comparable to the worlds combined energy markets, so for a company like Goldman Sachs there can trillions to be siphoned off.

        • matthew

          Carbon exchanges (i.e. cap-and-trade) are an unworkable solution, IMO, for the reason you note. A simple refundable carbon tax is the simplist, most equitable, and toughest to manipulate.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Looks like we all want to be rootin’ for The Canadian model to be correct ‘eh!
    https://twitter.com/SPaulsonKTVU/status/888112773330116611

    • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

      Goooo Cannnadaaaa…..

    • Thunderstorm

      Is this incoming high the same high that is currently in Mississippi Valley area?

      • AntiochWx

        Yes, it flattens, then redevelopes over the 4 corners area again.

    • AntiochWx

      In recent past a -NAO and a +WPO would bring a cooler August (and both are predicted to do just that), so the possibilities are there. Just depends on that stubborn 4 corners HP.

  • AntiochWx

    Honestly climate change in AGW terms is very simple to fix. All you have to do is convert most energy supplies to clean renewable, and run transportation on said energy. Also incorporating hempcrete to replace some of our other cement will also reduce co2 footprint. The last major hurdle to climate change is aviation transportation, it is really difficult to run aviation on clean energy.

    • matthew

      Carbon tax with a rebate (revenue neutral), combined with a border adjustment tax to level the playing field with countries that do not impose a carbon tax. That should account for a good hunk of the externalities. Then let the market work out the solutions.

      • AntiochWx

        Externalities (especially pollution) has long since been a major societal problem, but the power of the corporations and the power of the corporations to lobby politicians have always been able to get away with it. Carbon tax must come from government, and as long as corporations can still lobby, we the people will always have to fight for what’s right.

      • AntiochWx

        The technology is there, we could change AGW relatively quickly, but it ultimately will come down to the power of the government and big business getting in the way.

        • matthew

          As I just wrote below, I believe the generation mix needs to shift to nuclear for all baseload, wind+solar for peak demand, and a little bit of nat-gas for both peak demand and things like frequency regulation. I agree that it can be done. Just need the political will, particularly for the nuclear part of it.

          • AntiochWx

            I don’t necessarily dislike nuclear, it just leaves nasty nasty waste behind. Find a technology that can deal with the waste and make it less radioactive or as close to inert as possible, then I say fund it. Disposing it in the sea (sadly we have done this and still do it), and burying it instead of dealing with it head on is not the solutions I want to take.

          • matthew

            I believe that gen-3 reactors can reduce the waste by over 90%. The rest goes in Yucca mountain.

  • Thunderstorm

    Once in awhile other news pops up. OJ paroled today.

  • alanstorm

    So many intelligent, well informed comments here today, albeit on the depressing side combined with the doom-feeling I have about the fire in Mariposa. 45 structures burned so far, people & animals running for their lives, lifetimes of work erased.
    And increasing temps coming once again this weekend……

    • AntiochWx

      Sadly alot of these things could be prevented, if not at least managed better. The lack of funding and manpower is direcly influenced by piss poor governing. But cheer up, society still has so much more potential than what we are today.

      • alanstorm

        One solution: don’t build nuclear power plants in a tsunami zone where the backup cooling generators can be swamped

        • Charlie B

          Back in the 1960’s someone had the bright idea of building a nuclear power plant near Bodega Bay. Fortunately, common sense intervened, but not until after some construction work had commenced…..

          • alanstorm

            Oh- & don’t build one on a earthquake fault AND tsunami zone, aka Humboldt Bay Nuclear Powerplant.
            Nevermind the 3 missing fuel rods believed to still be in the cooling pool….

          • matthew

            Just build a nuclear farm in the proximity of Yucca mountain then build out the transmission infrastructure to carry the energy where needed.

        • AntiochWx

          For me it will always come down to nuclear waste, find a way to manage the waste (instead of burying it), and I will be on board.

  • In the interest of keeping the comments thread accessible and on-topic, please remember to keep conversations centered around weather and climate.

    Climate change discussions are definitely on topic to the extent they focus on the the physical atmosphere, but this really isn’t an adequate forum to host exchanges on solutions–technological, social, political, or otherwise.

    Thanks for your cooperation and understanding!

    • DelMarSD

      Agree completely.

    • AntiochWx

      Sorry.

    • matthew

      Hey, at least we were civil, and more-or-less factual, this time!!!

    • gray whale

      it would indeed be very distracting if it happened often, but i enjoyed the discussion today.

      with so little to discuss lately, as soon as I saw 82/83ENB’s comment I had a hunch it would take off rapidly.

      but we won’t do it again! promise 😉

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://twitter.com/GreatWinter2017/status/888125610891005952 This is interesting but given what models did last year this is simply could change very easily overnight

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I’ve stayed away from these models thus far. These models will flip flop many times before this winter.

    • Fairweathercactus

      Over the past 2 years the less moisture that thing shows the better.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Funny that CanSIPS Climate Model is the complete opposite( I know that this will change many times before our wet season begins) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f64a8141c76286dc5a31b928133cef509f9038c419fa3cc3bc1e0cbf82878963.gif

      • jstrahl

        Much better, FWIW!

        • You guys can do all the math you want.

          I’m a seven lean years, seven fat guy.

          We had the seven lean (so to speak), now the fat. Do the math – the simple kind.

          Wet, wet, wet.

    • The month can look somewhat ‘ridgey’ but that may be because 3 weeks are pretty dry and a couple of decent storms come through for one week. Sooo that shows a composite month of being a little ridgey. The seasonal monthly models IMO CANNOT pick up the nuances inside of a month.

      I look at NH height anomalies and SST’s

      I know you posted about precip

    • jstrahl

      Looks quite bad given that Jan-March is all below average, to well below average, core wet season. But we do know how well models did last year.

  • alanstorm

    105° forecast for Sunday in Ukiah.

    • Pfirman

      Ufriah.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    New fire start around Auburn in the Auburn Recreation Area. This area tends to see fires often and isn’t great news for the foothill and Sierra air quality.
    https://yubanet.com/Fires/stagecoach/

    https://twitter.com/kcraFinan/status/888135842694180864

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I have been looking at webcams around the Lake Tahoe and Truckee area and it looks rather smoky in that general area right now.