Monsoon picking up over Southwest; heat & moisture across much of CA

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 2, 2017 2,949 Comments

A very hot start to California summer (except for the immediate coast)

Summer has been off to a very hot start across nearly all of CA away from the immediate coastline. (WRCC)

After a relatively mild spring across most of California, June brought quite the reversal. A prolonged, record-breaking, and unusually “muggy” heatwave enveloped nearly all of California for multiple weeks, and temperatures have only fallen back to average over the past few days. This remarkable early-season heatwave set innumerable daily temperature records across the American Southwest, tied or broke several June monthly records, and actually exceeded or tied the hottest temperature on record at a handful of sites (including Needles, CA and Las Vegas, NV). The very prolonged nature of the heat, combined with the presence of an unusually humid airmass over Northern California, made the human impact of the heat even worse–and also led to consecutive “hot day” and record warm overnight temperature records being set in a number of locations.

Interestingly, this searing heat did not quite make it all to the way to the Pacific coast–and while coastal areas in the Bay Area and Los Angeles area were still warmer than average, the lack of sustained offshore flow and the presence of relatively cool ocean surface temperatures allowed these regions a very localized reprieve from the extreme heat. This “cool coast/hot inland” setup is most pronounced during California heatwaves occurring earlier in the calendar year, when coastal upwelling tends to be strongest and when the natural “air conditioning” provided by the marine layer is at its most effective. Autumn heatwaves, on the other hand, tend to be characterized by stronger offshore flow and are more “isothermal”–with similarly hot temperatures occurring far inland and at the immediate coast.

 

Western ridge rebuilds; heat & and monsoonal flow commence

Strong high pressure will set up shop in a classic summer monsoon position over the interior Southwest in the coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

It does appear that Western heat will make a return this week. This, time, as the western ridge builds, middle atmospheric winds will turn toward the southeast over California–opening the door for a substantial influx of monsoonal moisture for the first time this year. As anticyclonic circulation strengthens in the coming days, afternoon thunderstorms will develop to an increasingly widespread degree over the deserts of northern Mexico and southern Arizona, the remnants of which will eventually move from east to west over Southern California. This is a classic early monsoon pattern, and it’s one that the global weather models can capture well at the large scale, but the details are usually rather hard to discern more than a couple of days in advance.

At the moment, it does appear that Southern (and possibly central California as far north as the Bay Area) may be in a generally favorable position to see occasional pulses of moisture and mid-level atmospheric instability over the next 2 weeks. This will probably lead to bouts of widespread mountain and desert thunderstorms, and probably at least a couple of shots at isolated thunderstorms across coastal areas. The timing is impossible to pin down at this point, as weak mesoscale disturbances rotating around the 4-Corners High will dictate the highest likelihood of thunderstorms. As usual, there will be some fire weather concerns associated with dry lightning (especially in the wake of our big heatwave).

Monsoonal moisture will likely overspread much of California in the coming days, leading to mountain and desert thunderstorms. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The upcoming heatwave won’t be nearly as intense as the last one, although it will still be quite hot away from the coast (and increasing humidity across Southern California may yield increasingly “muggy” conditions as well). There is a bit of uncertainty at the moment regarding how long the strong western ridge will persist. But there are indications that it will be pretty long-lived–and may yield a prolonged 2+ week period of relatively hot conditions and somewhat frequent opportunities for monsoonal moisture and associated convective activity (especially mountains and deserts). It’s that time of year!

 

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  • WalkmanJG

    Am I the only one who sits around and wonders just what it’s going to take to get the significant portion of this country who thinks climate change is a liberal hoax to actually realize it’s not and start taking actions to address it? It’s amazing to me the overwhelming amount of visible, touchable, available evidence is out there right in front of literally everyone yet so very many people can say “nothing to see here”…

    • Pfirman

      On some great and
      glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart’s desire
      at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.

      H. L. Mencken
      It’s kind of monkee see monkey do.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Ha! Prophetic!

        • Pfirman

          Well, I had thought it was Bush, but I have been proved wrong.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Me too — amazing that we now long for those days

    • AntiochWx

      Because people are afraid of change, they are afraid of what it means to change their lifestyles. It means eventually of some carbon taxation system, or banning or limiting carbon pollution. This ultimately will mean industrialization will have to pay for their externalities and either economically hinder or cause some closures. They see this climate change as a threat to capitalism as we know it. Well I’m sorry to say but yeah, this is what happens when you base your economy on a atmospheric pollutant.

      • matthew

        It is not just fear of change, but that combined with the sheer volume of change that we are faced with – scientifically, economically, socially, culturally. It is not surprising that there is a backlash.

        One other dimension is that our political parties (both of them, not choosing a side here) have gotten so good at identifying and exploiting wedge issues that they now require them to survive. Take immigration for example, there have been several reasonable proposals over the years that have gotten bi-partisan support. But they will never get voted on because both sides would loose an issue to rile up 15% of their base. We are witnessing the same with healthcare right now. I would also predict that if the Dem’s every had all branches of government, they would essentially do nothing of value regarding climate change…because it would cost them a wedge issue.

        Climate change. Immigration. Gay rights. Healthcare. Abortion. All effective wedge issues to get different portions of the base out to vote.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Very well put.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Not to mention George Washington warned us of a 2 party dominated system. This is what he was talking about.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      And Trump is taking measures to resist science via funding cuts. It is not just ignorance but also deep greed.

      • AntiochWx

        I often dream of having a president who has a doctorate in any scientific field. I’m quite envious of Germany’s direction. Merkel is truly the leader of a free world. Thank goodness, California resemble more of the EU than the backward states such as Alabama.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          I dont see the resemblance other than ideology. California still has the most polluted cites air quality wise. So I agree that we legislate and say things as if part if the EU, but the results are meh. What is California as a state really great in? The beautiful scenery owes the people of CA nothing. Except for huge corporations (ie Apple, Google) we have one of he worst school ratings, roads, water system, power system, hgst coat of living, all the while having the highest taxes. So let’s not toot our horn too much just because we voted for the other guy. Demsn in CA have not proved they can govern worth anything either. I want to see results!

          • Tuolumne

            Air pollution being so bad here is a result of a combination of climate and topography: massive summer insolation due to lack of clouds, lack of strong regional air flow or fronts at most times to clear out pollution (especially summer), and mountain rimmed basins and temperature inversions to trap and concentrate air pollution. If we didn’t have stronger air quality standards than other states it would be much worse.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Wasn’t it much worse before the air quality standards came into play? I have heard older people than me talk about how much worse the smog was in LA and places like that than it is now.

          • Tuolumne

            Generally, yes, though I’m not sure that’s the case in the Central Valley. My father was in LA for a bit in the 1950s, and when I moved to the same area in the 1980s and he came to visit he remarked on how the smog wasn’t as bad.

            Ditto in the Bay Area, where the smog was a lot worse in the 1960s (when standards were only beginning to be tightened) than it is today.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Leaded gas was largely at fault. When regulations forced the oil companies to replace it with unleaded, then engine designers got busy solving the knocking that leaded gas prevented. Engine efficiencies and improved gas milage were also brought on by imported cars from Japan. American car companies had to compete, especially after the rise in prices following the oil crisis in the mid-1970’s.

            If you want to remember how polluting cars were before the EPA, drive behind a “classic” American car that’s still running an engine from that era. Gag! Horrid.

          • matthew

            I grew up in the West San Jose/Campbell area in the 60’s/70’s. There were many summer days when you could not see the Santa Cruz mountains – no more than 3-4 miles away – due to the pollution. I still occasionally have to deal with exercise-induced asthma due to breathing and playing in that crap as a kid. This is the type of economic externality that the fossil fuel industry gets a free pass on – society (in the form of health insurance) needs to pick up the tab on my inhaler due to the crap we poured into the air.

          • Pfirman

            Yes, the nastiness of the smog was much worse. If you ran at the beach in Long Beach in the fifties and sixties, your lungs would scream in mere yards. The visibility is still bad, but the poisonous stuff is greatly mitigated.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Long Beach where my mom’s family resided until they migrated up to Chico. I remember reading an article once that showed socal basins choked with smog before the clean air act and then clean afterwards, but I haven’t been alive long enough to know if the change was as dramatic as was depicted. I’m sure the state’s smog regulations have played a part in that too, as inconvenient as they may be at times.

          • Pfirman

            Funny. I lived ten years in Chico and loved the area. Pretty much left Long Beach after high school. Upstate for me. When the urge to ramble hits I head mostly to the very great northwest with only the rare visit to my bro in Huntington Beach.

          • AntiochWx

            But that is where it starts ideology, you have to have the right mindset before anything can take place. Great thinking unfortunately doesn’t always lead to actions. California is the leader in the US in environmental regulations, we actually have a plan in place to reach 50% renewables, unlike a lot of other states. I agree, there is a lot that needs to change to help the great people of this state, but I have found living in other states in the US, that California is definitely moving towards progress.

          • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

            You are giving California a pass as the ideology is not new, yet the lack of results continues. For example, we demand to fund education like nordic countries, but don’t want to adopt there teacher standards. We want high speed rail, yet it’s going to be slower than anywhere else in the world, cost ten times as much, and that’s for a limited coverage system. I was born and raised here but I think we too often give a pass to those not following through on the promises they have been spouting for 25 years just because we agree with the platform or bumper sticker.

          • AntiochWx

            I agree there is a lot to be desired, and we have every right to gripe about it. Education could be better yes, the high speed rail is a joke yes, but if you were born and raised in another state, especially a southern state you would understand how lucky California is. The fact California is a leader in renewable energy is a big plus with me. I’m not going to ignore the bad things we have done, but at least California is trying to get better.

      • AntiochWx

        When Trump said climate change was a Chinese hoax, that is all I needed to hear to know what I thought about Trump.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Unfortunately, it’s not only climate science that the leader of the free world and his administration denies, but they’re proposing funding cuts to our Tsunami and earthquake early warning systems. Sad.

      http://abc7.com/news/tsunami-warning-system-faces-$12m-cut-in-trumps-proposed-budget/2207220/

    • Tuolumne

      Easy. Here are the beliefs that make it all possible for ordinary folks. People with more education have more sophisticated rationales and explantions that in the end amount to the same thing with a prettier veneer.

      1. Climate scientists predicted an ice age in the 1970s so you can’t trust them to make predictions (not true, but nobody they’ll believe will debunk this claim).

      2. In any case, climate scientists are liars and frauds being paid by the government to lie about climate.

      3. In general, higher education, research, and knowledge of the world are elitist things that destroy common sense and only serve the elites. So we need to just use our common sense to figure out what is factual. Anybody who disagrees is stupid or devious, and in any case is an elitist.

      4. Any claims or purported facts that you don’t like must be lies being told to benefit people/entities who are out to destroy America. So the common-sense thing to do is to flat-out not believe claims that you don’t like and which don’t fit in with your world view.

      5. Therefore, any climate change that can be observed must be natural, and anyone who disagrees is a dupe or an enemy of America.

      • AntiochWx

        This is sad but true, I often see very many of arguments like these when I talk to people about climate change. I have even see many outright claiming to not caring. They say who cares, the climate will adapt, or just flat out don’t think warming will hurt anything. It is sad, and really wish this wasn’t the case.

      • click

        Are you describing fake skeptics, or flat-earthers? “I only believe what I can see and rationalize”
        Such similar willful ignorance

  • Thunderstorm

    My thinking is, major dry lightning outbreak in northern California late tomorrow. Lots of high level moisture headed north to meet up with incoming trough. Red sky this morning up there by Redding. When I saw the picture of the red sky. Red sky in morning sailor take warning.Will see if this old saying is good over the land too.

  • mattzweck

    Here in the high desert Lancaster area. Nice warm Smokey. From the fires burning near by. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d865132e65ef2a7a0a38d00aff5f4f693dc5f1cc320f0b7a197ea21a4a15df93.jpg

    • Hollow Scene (Riverside)

      I can’t wait for some more monsoon action!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      A broad cloud shield from the flow this AM kept a nice lid on the Whittier Fire and held the RH recovery into the day…

  • BeerguyOE
  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Reporting in from Carmel Valley on the muggy conditions ATTM.. it got extremely muggy feeling within past hour with humid conditions.. definitely a rise in humidity and dew point occurring right now. More mid level Cumuls clouds have moved in overhead and are somewhat blocking the sun, but I know it’s much more humid than earlier because it feels just as hot in the shade as it doesn’t under the sun due to the muggy conditions.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/db1837cc7ce4b85c8da23402db909cc8eb492f1f5a78bbb6b11c5cae8820b324.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5db414d1bc880ed672ba9d811d2e082ffe09c6b51393a352ec75442c9ea16cf5.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/83f0478105fc553008434ae2ab4b3aa73fdb3cd582f8c40600f13fa8b20f19e8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/468a2da9420f7c1f55c7bb3f4cf2bc587788192eec574072609ccefcef3105d8.jpg

    • BeerguyOE

      I don’t have AC and the fans aren’t doing anything!

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Also.. question: are these radar returns actual precipitation? Or is it smoke? And if so, is this precipitation reaching the ground? Is there a dry lightning risk today or are the ghost POP’s too minimal to mention?

  • I love the monsoonal clouds streaming in.

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    Interesting hot smoky monsoony weather on the west coast and SW USA.

    Current conditions in orinda hot and kinda dry, and a monsoon sunset picture drone Tucson az family a couple nights ago. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/78dd80ec220834749a7fed5f79e5223d71fa78e3ac335e69f90848db0851b419.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c1d41092309e25d5a63994c5d639d139065e974bf61445a9efa2018be285eb7f.jpg

  • AntiochWx

    Question, is there any climate data nowadays that calculates the total energy in a full day? Like example, I have been doing an average of temperature for the full day in hourly averages. Higher resolution rather than just taking the min and max, it takes more of a closer look at what the temperature is doing on a smaller scale. Like I have some days that even with a min of 57 and a high of 102 vs a min of 60 and a high of 95, the day with the 60/95 was actually warmer using hourly averages.

    • Craig Matthews

      A very good idea calculating the total energy of the day. I have noticed a trend in temps the last several years where I live(central coast), that temps tend to warm sooner in the day, and stay warmer into the night, yet the High/Low has showed only minor warming the last 2 decades or so. So the simple calculation of averaging high/low does not fully reveal this tendency. I’m sure Daniel knows about this calculation, along with other climate scientists out there…will have to look into that myself as well.

      • AntiochWx

        It is one of the reasons I propose to use this in official measurements. In order to see where the heat is going, you need larger resolution. I often get upset when people denounce climate change they say land temperatures aren’t climbing much, and I often say have you looked at the ocean temperatures, the heat is going somewhere. The Earth is a complex system, heat doesn’t always reflect in max min readings, or land based readings. We have to dig deeper to understand the radiative physics behind Earth’s climate.

        • “I often get upset when people denounce climate change they say land temperatures aren’t climbing much.”

          My response would be asking them why they failed 6th grade science.

          When you say ‘radiative physics” are you referring to the heat budget?

          • AntiochWx

            I give people all the logical evidence in the world, it doesn’t seem to matter. It honestly is coming down to denying reality which is boardline a psychological issue, and I hope they seek help. Yes I’m refering to the heat budge, really anything that has to do with the stefan-boltzman law with blackbody radiation, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing in general.

          • Cap’n

            You’re correct it does become a psychological issue. Don’t even try talking to people about how big of a role changing our dietary habits could make. That will officially alienate you and perhaps get your comments deleted.

          • Tuolumne

            If I stop eating weather will I have less gas?

          • Cap’n

            That’s the spirit.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            Cognitive dissidence is a social epidemic…although it’s a good barometer of fundamental intelligence.

          • Yolo Hoe

            You are correct — food and associated agriculture is perhaps the largest human footprint regarding climate change, etc — too many folks don’t recognize that

          • Cap’n

            Two thumbs up.

          • Pfirman

            I would say borderline psychotic describes most of what passes for governance in most of the land(s). Maybe the climate is trying to keep up.

        • Craig Matthews

          Agree. It is one of the important parts in understanding the process by which the overall warming occurs…a simple high/low leaves out important details. Need to dig in deeper to the data, like you stated. Higher res. you are talking about sounds like a much more useful tool in doing so..

    • Chris

      I think that’s how averages should be done, period.
      For example in Morgan Hill, a weak sea breeze might have an 8:00pm reading if 75 but will fall to 55 by morning.
      With a deep marine layer, it might reach 55 by 8:00pm and hold steady all night.

      • Craig Matthews

        Interesting how certain marine layer depths and variation in marine layer patterns influences the pathways of marine air into coastal and coastal valley areas, like the Santa Clara Valley during the summertime. Depending on the depth and pattern of marine layer, Morgan Hill, for instance, seams to be greatly influenced by this, due it’s proximity to the SF Bay to the northwest and Prunedale Gap to the south, along with the influence of the height and alignment of the S.C Mtns and Diablos on how the diurnal thermals over those topographies effects the draw of the marine air thru those gaps/bays into the Santa Clara Valley.
        ie, southerly surge vs northwesterly flow “type” marine influence, and marine layer depth influence on Morgan Hill, as you were talking about in an earlier post. Not to mention the importance of larger scale thermal gradients influenced by synoptics. Now applying AntiochWx idea to your/my location, then adding hourly dew pt and wind direction and speed calculations, one could figure a trend in the depth and behavior of the marine layer, which, I think, would line up with a broader scale trend in thermal gradients across the state as well. just brainstormin’ here, lol

        • AntiochWx

          Apparently according to Daniel, they have been calculating total heat energy for the day already. I had no idea hourly temps were integrated against the base temperature. I’ve always been under the impression it was max+min/2 against the base temp. Not really my idea, but now I feel foolish. I would like to learn more about the marine layer here, any good articles( like more in depth meterology)?

          • Craig Matthews

            Didn’t know this, so thanks for bringing it up. RE: marine layer, I’ve got questions more then answers myself, so am looking for any data/info myself, on how the overall warming in this state, or Western U.S(aside from the Globe) could be affecting localized gradients between the ocean and interior, and how that could be effecting the depth and behavior of the marine layer. Even more in depth, how the microclimates could be effected over a period of time(decadal). Don’t really know for sure if this is possible, being the amount of variables here. If I find any studies or data I’ll send it your way.

    • Yes–the formal term for it is “degree days:”
      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Degree_day

      Different people use different definitions and thresholds, but the basic idea is that temperatures above/below some threshold of interest are integrated on an hourly basis and reported in units of degree-days. Thus, if the first half of the day was two degrees above the threshold and the second half two degrees below, there would be net zero degree-days for that day.

      Here’s an interesting example using “freezing degree days” in the Arctic (by Zach Labe), which illustrates just how incredibly warm the past 2 years have been in the high latitudes. Obviously, “freezing” is a pretty important intrinsic threshold in ice-covered regions… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c8e56085d6c5816dced3556ab7d466407d24239931142bdf71a0ae4ab75cc09.png

      • Tuolumne

        Degree days are hugely important in agriculture and gardening. For instance, different kinds of citrus need different numbers of degree days of warmth to produce good fruit, while various deciduous fruit tree varieties need different numbers of degree days if winter chill to produce well or at all.

        Applying degree days to human comfort in different climates makes a lot of sense, especially if humidity is also taken into account in warm weather.

        • There are ‘chill hours…but not heat hours??

          • Tuolumne

            There are, like I stated for citrus.

          • Pfirman

            Wine guys call them ‘sun units’ or something like that. Eastern Oregon does not have enough for certain types of grapes.

      • AntiochWx

        I understand degree days, but I think US degree days are still calculated (min+max)/2 ploted against a base number example 65. I want to know how much heat energy was there in total for the whole day (like the intergral of the sine wave). Would love to plot the hourly temp readings and take the integral over the period of 24 hours for dailies and etc. etc.

      • AntiochWx

        Sorry I missed your integrated on a hourly basis and reported in units of degree-days. I had no idea they were integrated on a hourly basis. I’ve always seen formulas for max+min/2 vs a threshold.

  • AntiochWx

    I know this is rather simplistic, but this is often what I tell people in easier to understand terms about climate. Climate is a system, and like any system, there is an input and output. Our input is the sun, it is the sole reason we are able to live on this planet, heat energy comes from the sun and reaches the Earth and it leaves the Earth. Solar Scientist have done mathematical and physical analysis of the sun, and have determined the suns heat energy output has not increased enough to explain recent warming. These calculations are done by TSI (total solar irradiance). The energy difference between the Mander minimum and the modern maximum are not enough to explain the warming we have seen since the industrial revolution. So that leaves with the output side of our climate system. The greenhouse gases on Earth slow the radiative transfer of the suns heat back to space, so if our input is not enough to explain the warming, what could possibly cause the warming? Well methane and CO2 are really the only gases in our environment that have increased enough to explain the excess warming. This has been studied via OLR or the response of outgoing longwave radiation and CO2 matches the absorptivity or the OLR that comes from Earth, ie causes increased warming on Earth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiative_forcing

    • Tuolumne

      “Solar Scientists have done mathematical and physical analysis of the sun, and have determined the suns heat energy output has not increased
      enough to explain recent warming.”

      Careful wording is important to avoid giving unintentional meanings by accident. “Not enough” is technically accurate, but it sounds a lot like ‘it’s a big part but not quite enough’. Actually, it’s more like ‘it’s not even in the ballpark’. The sun has actually been really steady in its output for some time, so other things have been driving climate changes past and present.

      • AntiochWx

        I’m not sure the exact percentage the sun is responsible for the temperature increase, I will have to dig that article up somewhere. But Yes, the sun has been relatively steady.

    • Fairweathercactus

      I will care when they quite trying to push a tax as the only way to fix things.

      • mosedart (SF)

        I think if started charging for gaseous waste disposal like we do for solid and liquid, we’d be well on our way to moving towards cleaner energies.

      • Tuolumne

        A lot of different ideas have been floated, one of which is a fully-refundable carbon tax. All proceeds go back to consumers and businesses rather than to government spending. This is a more credible approach, but everyone will still have an incentive to choose less carbon-intensive technologies to get things done.

      • AntiochWx

        There is only one way to fix the issue with global warming. For starters, we need to severe cut CO2 emissions so the world can start plateauing. Well the really only way to do that is place a cap on how much fossil fuels are combusted. No one on the fossil fuel side is willing to cooperate. So you either have to force regulations (which they don’t like) or give financial support to renewables (which they don’t like). We can’t get out of AGW until the majority of our energy and transportation comes from and uses renewables. Pollution is an externality that isn’t payed for and is passed down society. So somebody has to pay for it and it starts at the producers, and then consumers.

        • Pfirman

          Have you read Lester Brown’s books?

          • AntiochWx

            No, tell me more. What does he write about.

          • Pfirman

            Try ‘Plan B, 4.0’. I think I read the 2.0, heh. Anyway, one his sayings is it’s too late for pessimism. He is in his eighties now. An icon, really.

          • AntiochWx

            I will give a read, I always appreciate a good climate book.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Accuweathers real forecast is showing heavy rain for my area starting in 1 minute. We will see. Most likely picking up radar returns from the high clouds over my area.

  • Fairweathercactus

    huge drops hitting the ground!

  • Fairweathercactus
    • molbiol

      Nice try, but we all know that you secretly used a spray bottle ๐Ÿ˜‰

      • Fairweathercactus

        Nope that is the famous convective drops here in Whittier thanks to the foothills. Drops can get rather large here.

        • molbiol

          Yup, I know, I was just giving you a hard time. I can actually see it on radar. I’m just so disappointed after being let down by the computer models this week WRT the large monsoon surge that was forecast five days ago. And this is all we have to show for it….

          • Pfirman

            Nonsoon.

          • Cap’n

            Definitely feels like that so far. Hope she gets cranking up at some point.

  • Thunderstorm

    Very rare to see scattered virga and a red flag warning for the hills of SF bay area at the same time.

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)
    • Pfirman

      Funny, Iread that as ‘I am NOT in Monterey Bay” and wondered, well, where the hell are you then?

      • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

        I fixed it!! I meant to say I am NOW in Monterey bay hahaha big difference lol

    • Yolo Hoe

      Saw some amazing gossamer clouds in Tahoe mid afternoon — trippy was the right word — and beautiful — then overcast — then amazing sunset

  • Weird but it’s been 98 degrees like forever today

    • matthew

      Global Weirding.

      • AntiochWx

        Just wait until the summer time melt out of the arctic. The weakening of the jetstreams will be even more prominent.

    • Phil(ontario)

      Yea. It was 99* here from about noon until 5pm. Some thin almost transparent clouds came overhead and curtailed the daytime heating. I’ll take it over the 103* that was projected that’s for sure.

    • Craig Matthews

      Is your thermometer stuck…serious Q. My friend’s thermo up here in Redding does not go past 102 no matter how hot, even when the fire station about 800ft away shows 108, or 113 like 2 weeks ago, and that station is in a shaded area, uncontaminated. I think they’re playing with me though to keep me working up here, lol.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Fair amount of cloudiness w/ even light rain reported in parts of Orange county this afternoon. Humid but not particularly hot.
    91/ 68

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I was up at the Palomar Observatory this morning and in Temecula for the rest of the day. It clouded over while I was at Palomar, and it looked as if it it might rain a bit, but there wasn’t any rain anywhere I was at least. That doesn’t mean that there weren’t isolated showers in some areas but just not overhead. On my way back to Temecula after lunch, I noticed there was a fair bit of subtropical moisture toward the west (even as it was fairly sunny in the Pauma Valley and Pala area on Highway 76), which was probably the source of the shower activity reported in Orange County this afternoon.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    So an outside chance is what they’re saying… Watching it through the night while I’m at work. Enjoy your Saturday evenings WW friends. https://twitter.com/nwslosangeles/status/886392933263527936

    • Apollo

      Dew points are to be 75 @ 6 a.m. and 77 @9 a.m. Southeast Ca desert (Imperial County) looks Like very good chances of some early morning storms.

  • Pfirman

    So a mess of clouds moved in and covered the sun for a while here in eastern Yolo County. Did not see that coming. Stayed hot anyway, and muggy.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)
  • AntiochWx

    It was nice to see some clouds today, first time in a while. High was 103.8 .

  • Pfirman
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • AntiochWx

      The sunsets were quite nice tonight.

  • Cap’n
    • Pfirman

      Amen. Got that even down here in the flats.

    • Yolo Hoe

      So glad you snapped those as took an evening ride looking west at the Crest unshackled from the phone so had to commit my frayed neurons to just trying to remember it — was a very, very memorable wall of color indeed.

  • Rusty Rails

    Joining the cloud party, here’s the sunset in Santa Cruz looking back toward Moss Landing. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/956aaaf471bcdc8dbd1168bff53f925af76e5dd72dc60555c7987308b47d3ef0.jpg

    Staying on brand, UP sent a fire train down to Capitan this evening to stage in the event the Whittier Fire makes a run. That siding is sandwiched between 101 and its namesake beach so it should be easily visable for the locals down there.

    Fires in Nevada have been shutting down the route into Portola and the Feather River. The Truckee folks have been getting detour traffic over Donner this past week.

    • nice pic! Looks like you are about to be devoured or swept away

    • Pfirman

      I’m curious what that means. ‘Stage’ and what they would do if the fire did ‘make a run’? Thanks.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Staging is when you have resources committed so you call in other resources to cover their stations in case something local pops up. I staged for 2 weeks in LA during the Glendora fire once, it was miserable. Making a run just means that the fire is moving based on local conditions. The concern for this fire has been sundowner winds which would drive the fire. When a fire is running it is harder to fight directly.

        • Pfirman

          So the fire train fights the fire too, if it gets too close?

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I have never heard of a fire train, I’m curious what that is too.

      • Rusty Rails

        Staging is positioning equipment at or near an incident for quickest use when needed. In this case the siding at Capitan is the closest spot to store the locomotives and fire cars (tank cars with generators /pumps/monitors) to be ready for use should the fire start burning quickly in that direction. Burning ties are of particular concern as that can put the line out of commission for an extended time.

  • AntiochWx

    So 87 at midnight, pretty much guaranteed 104+ today.

    • Pfirman

      Yeah, worse than here in Woodland. Got up around 2am to open windows and was blasted by warm air. Opened up anyway. It was 82F. then. Forgot to look at now, but only marginally cooler.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    There is developing showers (probably virga) offshore, & looking better by the minute heading for Pt. Conception, Santa Barbara county, the Channel Islands & possibly even western Ventura County. This does appear to be pretty high based… SO there may need to be an overnight slight chance of dry lightning forecasted by the local NWS office. To note, the mesoscale models have now keyed in on whatever is unfolding taking place in those areas, even across the southern SJV.

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Admode (Susanville)

      Of course the picture doesn’t do it justice.

      • Craig Matthews

        They never do. Are you doing some work for that fire situation down there? Must be hot in those hills this morning. Seeing lows in the mid 80s on some of the RAWS in the L.P.F

        • Admode (Susanville)

          Yeah, I’m helping with ordering for the Whittier.

          • Craig Matthews

            Looks like a helitack base. Hope things are going well down there and temps and winds wont get crazy. Keep up the good work.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eb7f58fea7c706d77af5dd3fd8568cc0fd308393eb26798a0c06e840c7fa2be4.jpg There are a couple of different outfits on this compound. I’m not sure what the little helicopters are for, I just always see those guys inspecting them. There is a tanker base here too, here is one of the DC-10’s.

          • Craig Matthews

            Amazing how much those can carry. Sounds like they are doing a big burn out/back fire opp today. Hope that goes well. 1600+ firefighters on the fire per fire information.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I got to go inside of one last year. It’s so trippy to see a plane that big completely gutted. There was a picnic table ratchet strapped to the floor and a bicycle strapped to the side and that was all that was in it. You could totally do laps inside it on that bike. They have 300 lbs lead plates right behind the cockpit on the floor to balance the planes weight since they are gutted and also carry so much retardant.

          • Craig Matthews

            Wow, that is massive inside. Interesting about the lead plates. Do they adjust the plates depending on the load? Probably a no brainer just wondering though, if you know.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            No, they are permanent. I’m sure the plane flies a little differently when it’s full of retardant compared to when it’s empty, but I think the weight of the plates gets that balance into the ball park that they help whether it’s full or empty. If that makes any sense.

          • Craig Matthews

            I’ve noticed flight personnel has a method of packing the aircraft for weight distribution as well. I was on a forest management crew for the F.S for 2 summers back in the ’90s, and we also went out on wildfires, mostly to mop up, when the local crews were stretched thin during the heart of the summer. I got a chance to work with helitack a few times. Never saw anything like a DC-10 though that’s awesome. I can imagine it gets pretty hot in those…

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I would imagine it does too! So what do you do for work now and what is a forest management crew? I work for the Forest Service but I’ve never heard that term.

          • Craig Matthews

            Was actually called a tree thinning crew under the label Forest Management at the time. We’d go out an thin the forest on F.S land as a fire protection for nearby residence. Kind of like building a large fire break, by thinning out the smaller ladder fuels under the bigger trees. Its been 20 years since I worked for F.S. I work as a caretaker for a few properties, and a handyman(carpenter/painter/landscaper). I got a chance to meet a few Meteorologists who worked as forecasters on fires….which would be the ultimate job being interested in met IMO.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            That’s awesome. So you would actually do the thinning work? We do a little of that here and there but bigger projects get contracted out anymore.

          • Craig Matthews

            Yes, got to work with chainsaws all day long thinning out the smaller trees/ladder fuels in areas marked by the F.S as fire breaks, or buffer zones as they called it. The funnest part of that job was driving quads to skid those smaller trees out to a landing zone. Did this for 2 years in the mid ’90s. The F.S trained us to fight fires as well, and in that process we had meteorology as one of the curriculum which really sparked my interest in weather.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Copy! Do much work on the Lassen?

          • Craig Matthews

            Negative.

          • Craig Matthews

            Worked on the Plumas.

          • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

            You guys were lucky not to work in poison oak zones…I was a swamper for 2 years on a hand crew working fires and contract brush clearance/breaks primarily in the LPNF and I never gained any tolerance for the plant. I’d swell up like a balloon…

            One thing that was astonishing to me was I seemed to be the only guy on the crew that had any REAL interest in weather. They all turned to me for conditions…even one of the crew bosses didn’t know what the GFS was…I was the nerd that carried the wet bulb happily giving the hourly updates on the radio…

          • Admode (Susanville)

            You are right, I am lucky where I work doesn’t have poison oak, but I have worked in it over in the Forbestown area. Infact, one unit I was in had poison oak up to your knees and black berry bushes over your head. So you’d get all cut up and exposed to the oak. It was good times.

          • Tuolumne

            Did the same thing a few decades ago, only it was for forest management (thin trees so the remainder grow faster) rather than fire risk reduction. Also a couple of small fires. It was a great chance to observe mountain weather over a summer.

          • Admode (Susanville)
          • Jim

            I trained with Calfire Team 1 in supply and ordering when I was still on the fire department…

  • Thunder98
  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Lots of climate change talk since we are you in the midst of the boring summer time. I think we are too focused on thinking the naysayers don’t believe it truly exists. I think most do, but don’t trust the proposed solutions. Mainlly, they always involve more government and more taxation. In theory, this makes sense, but the majority of Americans have no faith in our governments ability to get things done, and done well. It took decades to get a healthcare bill through and even the proponets say it was not a good bill, it is majorly in the red, etc (I won’t even start on Trumpcare.) Again, where does all this faith in US government come from. What program doesn’t the government actually do well these days?

    I think we give a pass because we like our governments aspirations, but we need to demand the accountability, which has been severely lacking.

    • cabeza tormenta

      How about Jerry Brown’s latest shenanigans, frantically pushing his cap and trade- with a provision taking away the right of local governments to regulate air pollution, allowing corporations to buy forests in michigan in return for permission to keep polluting here, making sure a big chunk of the cap and trade money will go to his pet train to nowhere.. and the damned delta tunnels which most certainly would change the climate of the valley if allowed to suck the delta dry, which they could do.
      No, there is no reason to have any faith in THAT government.

      • inclinejj

        I don’t think he has the votes. This cap and trade is tied to his high speed rail pet project. Quite possibly the stupidest move in the history of the state.

    • WalkmanJG

      There is no place for this kind of discussion here. However, people don’t trust government to get things done because the right has spent 30+ years drilling into a certain segment of the populations head that government is evil, it’s bad, it doesn’t work, etc… That couldn’t be further from the truth… Yet I see two follow-up comments that are as misinformed as you are. Cap and trade WORKS, it should be expanded and what Governor Brown is doing is the right thing. Is it perfect? No. However, this newly created bar that’s been thrown out where perfection is the only metric that anything can be judged is ludicrous.

      • ThomTissy

        It couldn’t be further from the truth? California is a prime example of governmental incompetence. We rank near the bottom in many categories that are completely dependent on the government (infrastructure, public education, traffic congestion, etc) but take it in the ass tax wise. For the amount we are taxed, major skepticism is rightly earned.

        Also, both the right and the left rally against the government is its own way.

        Regarding climate, what certainty is there that there can be any sort of reversal? How much emission reduction is necessary to stop the trend? Is this reduction achievable? If so, what are he quality of life impacts as opposed to doing nothing?

    • Well, if that was actually the starting point for rational discussion–that global warming is a big problem that needs to be addressed urgently, but that people have genuine disagreements regarding how best to do so–we’d be in much better shape. At that point, it really does become a political, social, and economic question rather than a climate science one. But at the moment, climate scientists are still working pretty hard to convince some folks that we aren’t part of a pan-national conspiracy to fabricate the global temperature record… ๐Ÿ™‚

    • Tuolumne

      My own comments earlier addressed the very common populist denialism which is heavily promoted by certain interests. Other concerns such as the ones you mention certainly exist and are important for a different segment of the population.

  • Craig Matthews

    Here’s another graph Daniel posted earlier in regard to the warming trend in this state. May have been already posted here? This one’s average temp for annual – Jan-Dec.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c33f3c56426aca12fcc650ae812c1942ef08776f6b3425d51708ee3a1c8a3c51.jpg

    • sezwhom

      Just look around. Always on black asphalt, near cement, etc. Black tar. Endless cars. Take this all away and would it be as hot? Don’t think so. However, since it is, I believe the uptrend is inevitable.

      If some of the NWS METAR’s were positioned over dirt or grass instead or near cement/pavement, they would read a few degrees cooler. Concord Buchanan is a prime example. NWS in SAC admitted it’s calibrated right but is influenced by pavement, surroundings. That data goes into the NCDC. Is that right? i don’t think it should be.

      • Craig Matthews

        Yeah, I wonder how the expansion of the populous, ie expansion of influences on temps such as asphalt, affects the data, as well as changes to the environment surrounding the instruments measuring these temps, and think this is a must for more accurate data. However when we are dealing with overall trends…. Here is an interesting read, please read. https://skepticalscience.com/surface-temperature-measurements.htm

      • Pfirman

        The elephant in the room that you are ignoring here is the lack of snow, excepting this year, in the Sierra, and even given this year its receding to higher elevations. No blacktop up there. Sez me.

      • There are arguments on both sides. Ocean SST’s are rising. Oceans hold a lot of heat…and take time to cool down. And once cool take a while to heat up again.

      • The effect of “urban heat islands” has been exhaustively investigated over the years, and it turns out to have had little if any effect on global warming trends. The main evidence for this is the fact that weather stations far from urban development, pavement, etc. show roughly the same warming as those in cities, at airports, etc. where the UHI effect is large. No statistical corrections required! https://www.skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect-intermediate.htm

        In other words: many areas are indeed warmer than they would otherwise be due to the presence of pavement, buildings, and etc…but that is an entirely separate issue from the long-term radiative imbalance warming the entire Earth.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Craig Matthews

      193 days! Incredible. It is amazing how long the Walker kept above threshold into this summer. Would be interesting to see data like this for years 1983, 1995, 2011, etc. and see how this year stands in comparison.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It was really net seeing this posted this morning, I’d like to see those years as well.

  • mattzweck
  • Admode (Susanville)

    The North Fork of the Feather River on highway 70 got an updated high https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fed91303c01d6dd49a1681bede10f480d33c56371d8418289253da6786c315df.jpg water sign!

  • Thunderstorm

    Long Valley fire now the biggest anywhere. Believe evacuations going on in the Lake Pyramid area. Fire is headed into the high mountains west of the lake today then all the way to the lake tomorrow. Would not be surprised to see a 20 mile wide fire front with the forecasted winds tomorrow. Fires in British Columbia will be getting much larger this coming week with high winds forecasted. Here in SF bay area by the bay stubborn inversion layer this summer so far. Cannot see the mountains past San Jose.

    • RunningSprings6250

      It trips me out out how seemingly fast areas can go from wet to literally burning.

  • Thunder98
  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Current dew points:
    Phoenix: 68
    Tucson: 68
    Yuma: 73
    Mexicali: 70
    San Felipe: 81
    Imperial: 75
    Salton Sea: 77
    Dos Palmas: 75
    Palm Desert: 72
    Ocotillo Wells: 74
    Cibola: 70
    Encinitas: 75
    Lower Moro Campground: 76 [s. Orange co]
    Newport Beach: 70
    Buena Park: 70
    Long Beach: 70
    Manhattan Beach: 70
    Baldwin Hills: 70
    Simi Valley: 77

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Florida West.

    • Thunder98

      That Simi Valley dew point looks dubious to me

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Agree

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    NWS LA/Oxnard is still hesitatent on pulling the chances from today & this evening for thunderstorms in the mountains, with outside chances everywhere else it seems. More clutter coming across the coastal waters yet again this morning, & that seems to be the deal so far for the start of this season. A lot of surges have occurred west of the Gulf of California & then moved over north/central Baja which in turn has brought the chances for monsoonal moisture to make it further west when pushing north into our locale. It will be interesting if this pattern sticks through the summer & coastal communities see quite the abundance in convection. Been making note of this since the upper level low took up shop off Pt. Conception. Here is an added graphic showing what I am talking about. To add, it seems the southern NWS offices have warranted convection out of whim that there is stuff coming off the coast almost daily since the pattern has been in place. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a745d880ba7f2bb3cbe1655efc07090e83dd6152cb1e8221e3a2bc4aa245795.gif

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      GOES-16 data is preliminary, non-operational.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Thanks for animated satellite. It is moist air and even though it is 86F, it feels much warmer

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That satellite image is so detailed that you can watch an individual batch of clouds move from one area to another. I am looking forward for this to be the norm in satellite imagery!

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I agree, it’s way more detailed than the old GW.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        No problem!

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Very nice time lapse motion. Could it all shift a bit west and north and plow into the Bay Area?

      NO!!! Bay Area is not a monsoon situation except in rare circumstances, usually hurricane influenced…. and usually in late fall…. which is generally more hurricane remnants meeting a sagging jet stream from the north… not exactly monsoon, but still somewhat tropical.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It’s not likely in the forecast now, but certainly with this setup it’s not out of the question with the way convection is occurring on the coast & offshore.

    • I’m still having trouble finding GIFs of the new GOES–do you know where this is from?

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      So good 805! Thanks for the effort…

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Thanks Slash, it’s really nice to see the performance over on our side of the country.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Scattered monsoonal clouds + intense sunshine – seabreeze = unbearable.

    • Thunder98

      Forecast high of 77F, instead its currently 82F. Hotter than forecasted

  • alanstorm

    Menlo Park Summerfest is currently 95ยฐ, feels like 100ยฐ + on the asphalt. Glad I’m near the lemonade booth. Still don’t know why people wander about in all black & no hat

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Currently 93 in Carmel valley right now, but it does feel hotter than that.. not quite as muggy as yesterday, but definitely hotter in general.. the forecasted high was 89 today so that number has already been surpassed with peak daylight hour still ahead.

    • PRCountyNative

      65 at the coast and 95 before the village, about 10 miles in. 3 pm.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    New area of interest is over the Santa Barbara coast & Channel Islands. Looks like an organizing area of light showers is beginning to once again form visually on satellite. This area of instability appears to be riding across the central & southern Sierra’s as well likely getting stuff fired off again in the Great Basin & Eastern Sierra’s. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/74b719d70e5904405a4c4321f792dfb1b52ced7d263873a5d171f9f05de5039f.jpg

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      This does include the Whittier Fire as well.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      As mentioned in the latest Oxnard AFD this monsoon season (so far) has been difficult to forecast. IMO, the main cause has been trying to figure where the HP center sets up shop. This season it’s been further west and south from previous years and with that comes our incessant heatwaves. As the models and sat loops verify, the center of the high is over southern Nevada this weekend. If it can move into a more favorable position, say the Arizona/Utah border it would be much more favorable for an E/SE flow across SoCal instead of northern Baja.

  • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

    Current situation on my back porch in “downtown” orinda….

    Hot as yesterday yet not as muggy as yesterday and possibly the west winds / sea brews, in mean sea breezes are starting, which was called for this afternoon into tomorrow, per the NWS.

    I’m ready for fall! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0ea73e39a642532a474d6fbdca83db14d11a5d923f951677602234bcb9088bf4.jpg

  • Phil(ontario)

    Cloud to ground lightning reported in Big Bear area, but unfortunately no rainfall. Down the hill the clouds are keeping the temperature in the low 90s with humidity at about 43%.

  • Cap’n

    Road our bikes up Old 40 and did the Mt Judah/Donner Peak loop. One big batch of snow at 7,700 ft and a little more in the trees. Scrambled up the side of Judah to avoid another large snowfield but that was pretty much it. Nice view south towards Anderson, Tinker, SquawPine, all between 8-9K. I wonder if in 30 years we’ll be stoked to see snow hanging on until mid May, let alone July 16th.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ce5d8925e17f052500006e35ca0aa5183ea884d53bc9af9b35dfd84854100d4c.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7e76373b1d1800c927bfdb390dac1267fed523200ba8b42e34cbd39721441002.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c510efb659782a64eb525b5eb44b00f5aa5865bc209ef3f89cd65aa545632319.jpg

  • Henry

    97 degrees and rising at Los Gatos RAWS at 1800 feet, after a high of 96 yesterday. This summer seems to be over performing, with every heatwave turning out to be hotter than predicted. This is starting to feel like the summer of 2006, though there has not been any one day in the Bay Area which has approached the magnitude of the heat in July 2006.

    • Chris

      Or humidity of July 2006!!!!

      • Dang San Jose setting record highs and ‘high’ lows on same day for a THREE days IN-A-ROW. Wasn’t living there though ATT

        • #BreakingRecords

        • Chris

          Including an all-time record high minimum!!!
          74 degrees. Dew point hit 70!
          Dew point hit 72 in Morgan Hill.
          Heat index 124 I think.
          We were 114.4 and DP 74.
          I can’t find the Heat index chart right now. Going by memory.

  • Thunder98
  • Thunder98
    • Phil(ontario)

      yeahoo’s reporting 8 people died in a flash flood in AZ.

  • Thunder98

    Just 46 days until Meteorological Fall! I’m ready for the cool temperatures, shorter days, cold fronts, rain and snow. I’m tired of this hot weather.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      But the West Coast has to deal with the occasional heat until mid-fall.

    • Tuolumne

      Cooler than in August in areas away from the coast, yes but it’s still pretty warm. Shorter days, yes, and that’s a blessing for evening cool-down. But cold fronts, rain, and snow will almost certainly be fairly minor or non-existent until sometime in October or even early November.

      The trouble with using fixed dates for seasons in all regions is that seasonal transitions happen at different times in different places. Fall comes earlier in Great Falls than in Modesto.

      • DelMarSD

        By the way, how do you pronounce your profile name? I’m probably screwing it up badly when I try to say it out loud.

        • Tuolumne

          Well, now you’re making me question my assumptions and habits of decades!

          The name is best known to many as coming from the Tuolumne River which drains the north half of Yosemite National Park and areas to the west. There’s also a town and a county by that name.

          Actually, “Tuolumne” originally came from local Native Americans (Sierra Miwok?) and I don’t think we know how they used/use the name. Assertions of the original meaning in various sources are contradictory. Any transliteration of Native American words into English has to be suspect because so many of these were mangled along the way with respect to meaning, pronunciation, and assigned spelling in the Latin alphabet.

          My family (not local to the area) always pronounced it too-ALL-um-me. There’s some more commentary here on this issue: http://www.yosemite.ca.us/forum/viewtopic.php?t=966. That discussion mostly supports my habitual pronunciation, which might still be wrong. Maybe the “n” at the end should be pronounced.

          The best way to find out would be to ask local Native Americans in that area. Of course, outsiders asking nosy questions of small minorities in rural areas just might get an answer intended as humorous by the giver. ๐Ÿ™‚

          • Pfirman

            Is this a good time to bring up Mokelumne?

        • Cap’n

        • Cap’n
          • Thor

            “I was not aware of that”… ๐Ÿ™‚

        • Charlie B

          I once had a girlfriend named Tuolumne. She went by “T.” (Her brother’s mane was John.)

    • PRCountyNative

      And surf. And more snow.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Peaked at 84 degrees in Santa Maria. I’m glad I’m not in Paso where it’s 108. Please bring the Pacific air conditioner back.

    • Pfirman

      You too? We used to have a dependable Delta Breeze up here in lower Sac Valley, now more a Melta Breeze.

    • Tuolumne

      How is a landspout tornado different from other kinds? This one looks like a cross between a dust devil and a tornado.

  • alanstorm

    Wife just texted me: 50 acre fire just broke out along 101 on the grade between Willits & Ukiah, not far from my place, maybe 6 mi.
    “Grade Fire”.
    Luckily, CalFire regional headquarters is right there, chopper & all

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Jeez, this is becoming a disturbing trend.

    • Thunderstorm

      Are you NW of the fire? Trough is bringing SW winds tomorrow. Barometer here SF bay area has been dropping all day and smoke is drifting up here from the SW probably from the wittier fire. Change in the upper air flow obviously.

      • alanstorm

        Yep, I’m NW, on the west side of 101 just a mile from the CalFire hq. I see the chopper take off over the hill.
        It’s pretty much making a run up the mountain on the Laughlin Range. I don’t think they’ll let it jump 101 if the wind shifts.
        I’ll be driving back tomorrow, been in the Bay Area

    • Pfirman

      Cigarette And Retard?

      • alanstorm

        Pickup pulling a travel trailer caught fire, burned.
        That grade claims it’s share of casualties during the tourist season, especially when it’s HOT.
        There should be places on a US hiway to pull over without igniting catastrophes.

  • Thunder98

    It’s 83F inside the house. ugh! It’s so miserable!

    • Thunder98

      Having AC would be so helpful.

  • Thunder98
    • Pfirman

      Was that last shot Virga?

      • Christian K.

        Or more appropriately, was that last shot Yoda!

  • alanstorm

    Grade fire now 400 acres & 10% contained, structures threatened
    https ://www.mendovoice.com/2017/07/ridgewood-fire/

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      If I saw correctly Cal Fire now saying 900 acres and 10% contained.

      • alanstorm

        Yep. 1000 acres & 10% as of now.
        Caltrans needs to get on the roadside grass cutting.
        Not sure how a state with the world’s 7th largest economy can have monster crumbling potholes everywhere & 6 foot dry grass along the roadsides.

        • Pfirman

          Amen and amen. When you figure it out let me know.

        • inclinejj

          Social services for the less fortunate take up a huge amount of the State budget.

  • AntiochWx

    108 today, glad I went to SF today to escape it, but even then SF was quite warm. So over it and ready for normal low 90s at least.

    • Pfirman

      I still can’t believe you are hitting hotter highs than Woodland. Not complaining, heh.

      • AntiochWx

        My temps are not official temps, so they could be off somewhat, but all the nearest davis weather machines (I’m assuming they are some of the most accurate around) , are all hovering very close to the temps I get daily. There is one nearby I think it overheating and not reliable, but 4 other stations close by are all very close. I’m not sure where Antioch gets its official temperature readings for the day, but I’d have to say I’d like to know.

        • Pfirman

          I was not questioning the accuracy. I would have thought being closer to the coast you would have less heat than us in the valley, not more.

          • AntiochWx

            No, I know you weren’t questioning the accuracy, I am because it just seems strangely warmer than some central valley areas but it seems to hold true. I want to say it has to do with the marine layer being terrible and the downsloping off Mt Diablo, but I don’t really know.

      • AntiochWx

        Today was a 104.8, totally blew away the predicted 98. The temp above 85 at midnight still holds for a high above 104.

  • Thunderstorm

    Dewittler fire by Mariposa and Lake McClure going big this evening. Know someone is from Mariposa on this weather site. Let us know whats happening. Satellite infrared shows very large white square.

  • DelMarSD

    00Z GFS is an odd run

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      FWIW easterly wave idea once again in the picture for both GFS & Euro in the 10 day. This will likely change though.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Not to be repetitious, okay, maybe I’m being that. Anyway, sharing more images of tonight’s sunset looking west at Molokai from our condo rental on Maui. I’m awe struck by the paradise like beauty of this place. If heaven is like this, I’m looking forward to leaving this physical plane and embracing what awaits…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ca236dddc89a8728ff62436ab68ef40026233dd3ec2c285a93203a341559244f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c6b5456665874fb6970f4ca2e2d2397684ee347dca90ae1023d782e0cb9da82f.jpg

    • Pfirman

      I went to Maui, once, long ago, and decided Paradise should not have humidity, jellyfish, sharks, and especially, poverty and blight. Sorry for the (Sun)downer.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        I am sorry you suffered with so many inconveniences and had to see only the negative and not the beauty nature gives freely and is all around us. Perhaps if you returned some day, and opened your eyes to the sunrise, and embraced the moments that lead to a every beautiful sunset, then the day would have passed without judgement.

        I know, it’s our nature to see only the blemishes and fail to hear the song of nature, which has reverberated since life rose out of the primordial mud and gave birth to the myriad and unique pageantry of life whose witness creates still.

        Sleep well my friend. We are loved more than we can ever know.

        • Pfirman

          I saw the beauty there and see it here where I live too. I just said if you want to call it Paradise, then no, for the reasons stated, among others.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Ok, maybe “paradise” is an overused term. My apologies for the choice of phrasing. One thing for sure about Hawaii is that it’s expensive! Food is about a third costlier and gas is around 3.40/gal. I can imagine what rents are like. I’ve seen average condo’s for sale in the million dollar range! I can’t blame the long time locals for resenting the mainland influx of money and demand that has made it a “paradise” for realtors and developers… Nevertheless, it is beautiful and peaceful and has been a wonderful opportunity to share quality time with family.

        • annette johnson

          Very well said. I appreciate your post as I am feeling pretty frustrated with our unrelenting heat. Once we get through August it will be much easier to open my eyes and realize why I love the desert so much.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            I just could not make it living in that scorching heat Annette. And this summer has been exceptionally hot for you guys. Hang in there. In San Jose where I live, there have been days in the upper 90’s, but the evening cool down, the “bay area air conditioning,” is what saves us.
            Thank you for the comment.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      If you get a chance take a day trip down to Kihei.

      • Charlie B

        Years ago I ate at the Dennys in Kihei. It was hands down the nicest Dennys I have ever been to. Unfortunately, it was still Dennys.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          Hey! The senior grand slam has sustained generations of pancake and greasy eggs and bacon lovers! Oh, and don’t forget the weak coffee to wash it down with.

    • Sublimesl

      The weather in Hawaii to me is very boring. That’s not “paradise” to me. I like cold fronts and changing weather and leaves changing color and the relief of a warm spring day after a cool winter.

      As Yogi Berra said, “If the world was perfect, it wouldn’t be.”

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        LOL, That’s Yogi for sure!

    • Bombillo1

      JJW, enjoy your time. I think about being there often. If you haven’t already, read Mitchner’s “Hawaii” for the geological and social history. Go for a swim and know zero discomfort…

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Thanks for suggestion my friend. This part of the planet is certainly intriguing from many points of view. I’ve heard that book is the seminal read on this area. I’ll definitely check it out.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Sublimesl

    Thunderstorms in Bay Area in 10 days? So sayeth GFS. The AFD also mentions it as a possibility.

  • Seeing Clearly

    Hi

  • Seeing Clearly
    • Sublimesl

      Are we supposed to see Satan’s face in those?

      • Tuolumne

        No, Santa’s.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      What are we supposed to be seeing here?

    • Tuolumne

      One, two, three o’clock, four o’clock, ‘shop

      Five, six, seven o’clock, eight o’clock, ‘shop

      Nine, ten, eleven o’clock, twelve o’clock, ‘shop

      We’re gonna ‘shop around the clock tonight!

      Get your Mac booted up and join me, Vlad

      We’ll have some fun fooling folks so bad!

      We’re gonna ‘shop around the clock tonight

      We’re gonna ‘shop, ‘shop, ‘shop, ’til broad daylight

      We’re gonna ‘shop, gonna ‘shop, around the clock tonight!

  • Fairweathercactus

    Todays models showing the best moisture just south of LA County area.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Battle between southwest flow (upper trough) and southeast flow from tropical easterly wave. Who’ll win out?

    • alanstorm

      Geez. Mini hurricane. I hope our friends in Az appreciate how awesome that is.
      CA Weather update: CONTINUED HOT & DRY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED WILDFIRES

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    LOL, the dog days of summer. Pretty boring weatherwise. I did not know we were due for subtropical weather in the valley this past weekend. Was really humid and there were some high clouds up there that looked like they wanted to dump a little rain. The paper Saturday said this summer so far we’ve had 16 days with temps over 100 degrees. On an average year to date, we would have six days. Been one hot summer so far.

    • Pfirman

      Indeed…and no relief in sight. High 90s all week and back to triple digit next weekend. Crikey.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Yuk, the NWS has it about 98 for the weekend and accuweather as always has it in triple digits. Can’t remember the last time the temps got anywhere close to the 80s

  • AntiochWx

    Temp at midnight was again a sultry 86.8 . It isn’t being forecasted, so lets see if it rings true, but 104+ , the low was above 65 (70.2 to be exact), so there is still 80%+ probability of 100+ at least.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Another day without the marine layer is another miserable day. Forecasters are predicting mid-70s here, but it’s easily rising to 80 or beyond instead. Wondering if all that wildfire smoke in the atmosphere is trapping the heat in. #the-heat-wave-that-wouldn’t-die

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      The L.A. Dodgers are HOT and thriving in these heatwaves.

      • Microbursts

        Watch them choke in the playoffs as usual ????

  • Microbursts

    It’s too damn hot !!!! Can someone explain to me why everyday has been consistently 5-10 degrees warmer than projected ??? I’m over the heat … I just want a couple days of seasonal warmth … global warming sucks ???

    • alanstorm

      Was 108ยฐ in Sonoma yesterday!

  • Fairweathercactus

    A lot of people starting to throw their bets in to what the analogs will be for fall and winter. I have seen a few people say that this season looks like 2007-2008 based on winter south of the equator. That fall and winter started off very pour for So Cal but a parade of storms came in late winter – mid spring and helped things out quite a bit.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      From what I remember, after all the fires in October 2007, there were occasional storms in November and possibly December, followed by a very wet January (not quite as wet as this past January), then a mediocre February, and then followed by a bone dry spring with too many spikes of hot weather in April and May. Had March and April been wetter, 2007-08 would have been a very good year for rain.

      2007-08 was a moderate La Nina year, and it remains to be seen what next year will be. It is looking rather ENSO neutral at the moment, though.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Spring of ’08 was pretty great if you ask me, however I was up north.

    • AntiochWx

      I don’t think 07-08 is a good fit for a few reasons, but the main reason is the overall weather patterns in the US don’t match, it was a cool Mid-west Texas and East coast that June-July, not seeing that this year. Although that years profile fits what is going in in the mountain west and even somewhat in California, I don’t think it matches well. Honestly, I don’t see many years to compare this to others. We have had a near record El Nino a year back and look to head into neutral conditions, nothing really matches in recent years.

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    63 dew point, but not a cloud in the sky. What’s up with that?

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    Well funny that I was forecasted a high of 92 and I tied my record high for the day of 100 and then lowered to a chilly 58 degrees . Interetingly it has cooled consistently off at night this summer unlike what I have been hearing from other people on here and without these insane heatwaves, it would be a very below average temperature summer.

    • DelMarSD

      Wow, large temperature variation between high and low. But I guess that happens away from the coast. For example, the high here tomorrow is 78, but the low is only 70.

      • Tuolumne

        A 45 degrees F difference in a day is quite common in areas of the west having a continental climate, at least in dry weather. Humidity in the air reduces nighttime cooling by absorbing infrared radiation emanating from the surface.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        It has been close to average max temps but nights are much warmer than average due to warm SST/ dew points in SoCal this month.

    • The below chart is for the Santa Maria Airport. Interestingly, it does seem that SM has been less anomalously warm than other spots so far this summer. Particularly: overnight lows have been pretty close to average since May, though daytime highs have been significantly above.

      But one minor correction: without the big heatwave spikes, this summer in SM would actually have been almost exactly average (rather than cooler than average). As it is, that’s still averaged out to a warmer than avg summer so far… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8e8492b1cd2c67301c669ee186036c929618b710ec5a5d64fc86679f0c8bd53c.png

    • Dan the Weatherman

      The humidity must be fairly low in your area since you have been experiencing rather large temperature swings, or you are getting a nice onshore push of air in your area at night.

  • alanstorm

    Another fire just broke out on the ridge just SE of Ukiah as I was driving up from Bay Area. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a9ac8490eecf290308a0c6b9c44c0c18c7a3a9d920c326fb3889ab7e3232b522.jpg

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      There was a fire in the Truckee area, luckily it was small but the Cal Fire BC was told “there are no aircraft in North Ops available to be sent to new starts.” Hopefully this fire was able to get their aircraft..

    • Good grief.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I’m wondering what is causing so many fires? No dry lightning to cause these remote blazes. Are these the work of arsonists? Any arrests made?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Another one just popped up south of Coalinga as well. Seems like it’s such a casual occurrence now.

      • Pfirman

        Can’t catch a (fire)break. Heard a fire captain on the radio say the acreage burnt so far this season is four times the acreage at this time last season. He kept mentioning ‘tall grass’.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      They cancelled a requested strike team, hopefully that’s a good sign.

  • Shane Ritter

    So far SSTA still resemble what they were last fall. I looked at some other notable julys since 2006, and none really look similar except last July. Last year we has a weak la nina, this year it’s mostly neutral. I’m hopefully for a 125-150% winter this year.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      The SSTs seem to be changing a lot. Not sure what the map will look like come winter time, Hopefully something sets up that will produce a favorable winter.

  • Animated pinwheel stuff make me nauseous. Someone mentioned on twitter that these kinda look like a snake swallowing an elephant. Now I need some ipecac to just be over and done with it.
    https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/886806451003510784

  • John

    Apologies if this is in the threads below, but I can’t help myself. In short, why the heck are the authorities getting the weather so completely wrong this season? Here’s a case in point: the NWS site still shows a high in my area between 82 and 88 today (it’s 3:30pm); it has cooled a bit, but my gauge still shows 92 degrees. And that’s the NWS! Don’t get me started on WU.

    It would be one thing if it happened only once or twice; but my wife and I simply laugh at the predictions every day. They tend to be off by a good 15% or so, and every time it’s low, not high. Heck, we take the dog out for a walk in the evening, and we can tell it’s going to be hot the next, despite the cooling predicted.

    Is there some reason the temperature predictions are so wrong? Are they “alternate predictions,” coming on order of Rick Perry?

    John

  • Fire Saratoga hills!

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    I swear every time I like at this site there’s a new fire, what the hell is going on

    • John

      I imagine you used that phrase on purpose?

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I am wondering how many of these fires are the result of arson.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I feel like the NWS has over predicted my temps most of the summer by a few degrees Not that I am complaining but these monster heat days only 1-2 have come together.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • Pfirman

        That photo is as surreal as it is surely real.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Another car related fire?

      • TheNothing

        Most likely some dip- @#$% mowing rocks. What’s up with so many fires this year?

        • alanstorm

          Record rain alleviated the drought, but grew bigger weeds! I have 5 ft dry grass this year

          • Admode (Susanville)

            In the Santa Barbara area they got enough rain to make the grass grow taller but not enough to really add to live fuel moistures in a significant way. Per the locals that’s the significant driver of this years fire season.

          • alanstorm

            We need to grow
            fire-retardant GRASS

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Maybe there is a species somewhere in the world that is, and would just take over here. Maybe Monsanto could whip up something.

          • Tuolumne

            You do that by having plenty of summer rain like in the eastern third of the country. But that also means hot humidity and mosquitoes. Pick your poison.

        • Tuolumne

          I think the heat has been a big factor. Yes, there is a lot more grass this year, but the really fearsome fires in California history were in tall brush and forest. Those stay pretty much the same year to year, except for drying out worse in dry years.

          I don’t think we’re going to see a Rim Fire or King Fire this year because it’s not incredibly dry, but heat, wind, and /or dry lightning during the fire season are wildcards that can turn even a wet year into a big fire year.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            The heat has definitely been a factor. It is amazing how quickly everything dried out this spring and summer. Soil and vegetation. Added to the extra growth of grass and brush it has just been a good recipe for wildfire. There is a lot of tree mortality in central and norcal too, a lot of trees were just too far gone from the preceding drought. Depending on how high temps remain, I have a feeling fires will start popping up there eventually too. Just my 2 cents.

          • Tuolumne

            Forgot about all the dead trees and the new ones being added on all the time. Lots of the tree equivalent of “dead man walking” – still green but doomed.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I have been working in lassen volcanic national park. The extent and rate that the white fires have been and are dying at is astounding.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            I have never seen pouch conks on otherwise green, healthy looking trees but have this year. You usually just see them on already dead trees. The walking dead is a food way to describe it:)

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Even with all the heat and additional vegetation from all the winter rains along with the dead trees, there still has to be a trigger that starts a fire. These types of things just don’t spontaneously combust like a bunch of oily rags unless there is a large compost pile somewhere.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Right, but there are thousands of starts every year, the vast majority we don’t hear about because they are able to be caught before they become established as large fires. What we are talking about here is the fact that so many starts haven’t been able to be caught before they get established because of the factors we have been discussing.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            The human factor is always there, I don’t think it has been exceptional compared to previous summers.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Ha! I just was driving on that road (Foxen canyon) this morning…Lucky the entrance to Zaca Lake is mostly flash fuels in pasture land…this is getting ridiculous.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Is there some arsonist up there setting all these fires? Points further south aren’t experiencing this level of fire activity even though it has been hot down here as well.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      The chatter on the hotlist implies that they caught it.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Good, hopefully can confirm.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          LAsteve

          New Member

          Join DateAug 2009Posts5Post Thanks / Like

          Re: CA-SBC-Mesa

          Copter 530 is waiting on it’s hand crew to hike out, and once they
          do, H530 is released. Air Attack won’t be far behind, and I believe they
          have containment, so I think we can call this a wrap.

          Post Thanks / Like – 0 Thanks, 0 Likes

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    just got a alert on my phone and through my tv about something on mt eden road. whats going on now?

    • Chris

      Same here

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Just received an extreme alert on my phone. Went to all cell phones in my area. Not a clue what it means. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ede520f7bb3a6d429207b52e9a27debb054ee9d90841b8480b46376d906f9c81.png

    • Rainmaker (San Jose)

      i posted about it first ๐Ÿ˜›

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
      • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

        Was it an error that a million people got the message? Seems like it.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      Same here, just got 5 minutes ago and not a clue what it means. May have to do with the fire in Saratoga Hills.

  • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

    https://twitter.com/nwsbayarea/status/887107211591385088 Will impact Bay Area beaches in 5-6 hours

  • CHeden

    Here in Cottonwood, all eyes are on tomorrow’s forecasted hi temp of 98F, which if correct, would be the first day below 100F in 19 days. This is the second longest consecutive day +100F mark in history, with only 23 days in 2005 surpassing the current streak. On the other hand, only a two degree miss in the forecast means the streak may continue. We’ll see.

    • Charlie B

      We are all rooting for you. Either way, I guess. Here in Reno we got back after a few days in Graeagle and the AC is on the fritz. Settlers would persevere but I crave comfort.

  • Yolo Hoe

    96F at 1918 in far southwest Davis — as Pfirmin noted yesterday, our new weather feature, the Melta Breeze, is blowing in from the SW — it’s supposed to be a bit more seasonal tonight — we’ll see.

  • Fish Farmer (Fresno)

    So tired of the heat already …..Is too early to talk about the upcoming fall/winter?

    • AntiochWx

      Long range is long range, but towards the fantasy range, a nice juicy trough sets up offshore. Hope over the next few days, the trend holds.

  • annette johnson

    Storm cell approaching from the east about 18 miles away right now. I’m not going to get my hopes up too much because it has done this for the last week. It seems like once it gets close to the river it just collapses. Dew point about 62, but the barometer is 29.62 and rising. If anything maybe a good light show tonight. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dd9b926e127d9ca7d30b960886c71f04cfc4326538c492bcf772f3de358a02eb.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/13d3fbe333b950a5c4b48ede7eeb6a28203cab4ee3b702047e622fdc4ca54ab0.jpg
    A couple more in the earlier stages of development. Even the air looked hot and steamy. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dc64fd746e45c52f698293860372dc856aec74cd5abc6c1997908ffe4a86e043.jpghttps://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6920fd3bee55772641e56a65f39e8c76fc0604bf7ad5752ab0b5027b717966b7.jpg

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    If I had it within my power to sent California some of this, it would be done. Mountain slope showers in Maui….

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/03726dcd7eadae846e37e934a14ec3a2eed782e1dbb828acf180c99d088c48ae.jpg

    • annette johnson

      Gorgeous! I’ll try to send some of mine over the river!

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        Severe thunderstorm warning headed your way! .A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM

        PDT/815 PM MST/ FOR SOUTHWESTERN MOHAVE AND SOUTHEASTERN SAN

        BERNARDINO COUNTIES…

        At 749 PM PDT/749 PM MST/, severe thunderstorms were located along a

        line extending from near Yucca to near Parker Dam to 12 miles north

        of Wenden, moving west at 15 mph.

        HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

        SOURCE…Radar indicated.

        IMPACT…Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to

        roofs, siding, and trees.

        Locations impacted include…

        Lake Havasu City, Highway 95 At Mile Marker 29, Parker Dam, Three

        Dunes Campground, Cattail Cove State Park, Desert Hills, Black Meadow

        Landing Campground, Earp, Vidal Junction and Big River.

  • annette johnson

    So close but so far away. Severe t-storm warning for southeastern San Bernardino county. Unbelievable clouds just a few minutes ago and for awhile they were casting an eerie orange glow over Lake Havasu. A couple lenticular clouds even formed for a few minutes. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3fca6fec3dad00745f6dbb5f241293624c52efb7d8a68eff386c9c6ec8dde9af.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/25884ec02d4c00562a034879a3d39de05432dbe03f57928bdab6416620bcc68b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8b9cfd3213fd0655e176e28959a1e32ed60bc2bfc3d8c411c57700eac0c3e9ad.jpg

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I’m not gonna lie, these are some of the best cloud photos I have ever seen!

    • annette johnson

      I couldn’t believe my eyes. I was at the right place at the right time. It didn’t last long. Wish I got those without the power lines. Thank you though!

    • Thunderstorm

      Lots of color silver,copper,gold even light purple. A different type of rainbow.

    • Tuolumne

      Spectacular!

    • annette johnson

      Although the storm did not produce much more than a little wind the clouds will be memorable. As the sun went down there was a lightning show about 15 miles away. It was fun while it lasted. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2521943bc56fef5c7a63a77651c4def6a53e05a072717887695ddbaa43a431f4.jpg

      • Pfirman

        Gnarly. Love the Edward Hopper effect at the bottom.

        • annette johnson

          I have to admit I had to google Edward Hopper. The name was familiar but I wasn’t aware of his work. I see what you mean though…a mean looking storm looming above homes with their outdoor lights on, seemingly unaware.

    • Thor

      Awesome pics!

  • Michiko Erwin

    i wanted to point out that the “question for another blog postโ€“partly due to time constraints,” about why last winter was so wet, has yet to be produced after several months. http://weatherwest.com/archives/5564#disqus_thread –I do feel that an issue so large needs some kind of explicit and comprehensive treatment.

    • Tuolumne

      Daniel’s in a post-doctoral program and he does have some significant demands on his time ๐Ÿ˜‰ . But yes, we’re all eager to find out.

      • Michiko Erwin

        I didn’t mean “find out” as though there were a single resolution. But it’s important to at least discuss.

    • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

      I’ve already heard basically the answer why from NOAA, but the research has yet to be published to my knowledge

    • Charlie B

      The winter was so wet because it rained and snowed a lot.

      • Nathan

        This is correct. Rain and snow leads to wetness and water, while sunshine and hot weather do not.

        • Howard Goodman

          You learn something new everyday !

      • Chris

        Oh you’re a grade AA smart a$$ Charlie ?

  • AntiochWx

    I have a good feeling the beginning of August is going to startout below average. NAO will be heading negative around this time, and WPO will be neutral to maybe positive. Both of these indices trending where they are forecasted have in the past correlated with a slightly below average August.

    http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/nao_neg.php

    http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/wpo_pos.php https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9437a45ed42adb1c79dff313384117309b1783202d508763ceeb8e0dbca9b7f2.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4b88162835079de232769b738c7d382216efce77c9ede5b8ac9a45ef139f9bfe.png

    • alanstorm

      I’ve had quite a few cool spells in Aug since I’ve lived up here 17 yrs. Even days of grey marine layer making it inland this far.

      • AntiochWx

        Yeah it seems like Augusts have ushered in the cooler weather, although seems like Septembers of late rebound to summer warmth.

    • Craig Matthews

      Interesting. This map was posted by Mike Ventrice on WSI site….huge ridge in the NPac. Depending on exactly where this ridge sets up and how it amplifies will have an effect on the trough depth and location from the GOA area down into the far eastern NPac in the coming days-weeks. Hard to say exactly what this will do to our weather in this state being how the amount of amplification can make big differences on the location-behavior and amplification of the SWUS ridge. Interesting how the NAO seams to oscillate to a negative phase in August in recent time. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0fa2bb766519f00ff6bb66a7a42d2e3ef3e655f456f9cc20e4b638c9f95abb0b.jpg

      • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

        It’s our Winter set up in July

        • Craig Matthews

          That is interesting for sure….It really does have similarities to our winter in regard to the NPac Ridge location and amplification.

      • AntiochWx

        It is a really difficult call, the ridge is ultra stubborn this summer, it’s been flexing then briefly relaxing on/off most summer long. A trough wants to setup in the PAC NW, but the ridge keeps flexing in every time a trough tries to dig for any extended time period. I’m hoping the teleconnections can hold and bring a pattern chance, but I don’t feel quite confident about it yet.

        • Craig Matthews

          Yeah, will be interesting to see what the SWUS Ridge will do if this set up lasts into September, and then onward into the fall…. whether or not the Ridge will allow troughs to dig and progress into the West Coast as far south as the state of Ca, rather then being lifted or shunted to the ne by that stubborn Ridge.

  • AntiochWx

    More noticablely cooler tonight, hoping the next few days brings some relieft.

  • Thunderstorm

    Mariposa and Midpines will probably be the battle ground points for the Dewitler Fire. Large white spot on infrared satellite again tonight. Looking at several fire pictures all had knee high grass as far as you could see. Gona be very difficult working conditions for fire fighters.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    is this the reason why there hasn’t been a hurricane in the central pacific in forever? Look at the flow of wind compared to the calm eastern pacific where its been a hurricane factory so far. Its been consistent for awhile now.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a48c377561bdcb81b7dc9e340976abb5d8655b86e789531f9e0557e729fd9fe8.png

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    9:30 in the evening Maui time, and here come the evening sunset images taken between 6 and 7PM. The second image shows showers developing on the Molokai coast and obscuring the brilliance of the other sunset images I’ve shared in the earlier posts. Oh well, ’tis the nature of the tropics to have tradewind showers in the late afternoon. Rain of any form is a delight and brings relief from the afternoon heat.

    Enjoy!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf8e75cdd84319c64acc3b360b589274e8e052e87708d0f545f1493afedbd2e7.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/364c4a6730a8d4e6ce51f2ee42c19a0a90953dc7032c8c4894aef4112c33433f.jpg

    • Craig Matthews

      Spectacular!

  • Thunderstorm

    Fire cams in Tahoe socked in, smoke, most likely Dewitler Fire.

  • Jim

    Dewitler fire over 19k acres this morning and burned actively all night…column had broken through the inversion layer by 5:30am…looking ugly for sure. Amazing to think not all that long ago, we had amazing amounts if rain…