Monsoon picking up over Southwest; heat & moisture across much of CA

Filed in Uncategorized by on July 2, 2017 2,949 Comments

A very hot start to California summer (except for the immediate coast)

Summer has been off to a very hot start across nearly all of CA away from the immediate coastline. (WRCC)

After a relatively mild spring across most of California, June brought quite the reversal. A prolonged, record-breaking, and unusually “muggy” heatwave enveloped nearly all of California for multiple weeks, and temperatures have only fallen back to average over the past few days. This remarkable early-season heatwave set innumerable daily temperature records across the American Southwest, tied or broke several June monthly records, and actually exceeded or tied the hottest temperature on record at a handful of sites (including Needles, CA and Las Vegas, NV). The very prolonged nature of the heat, combined with the presence of an unusually humid airmass over Northern California, made the human impact of the heat even worse–and also led to consecutive “hot day” and record warm overnight temperature records being set in a number of locations.

Interestingly, this searing heat did not quite make it all to the way to the Pacific coast–and while coastal areas in the Bay Area and Los Angeles area were still warmer than average, the lack of sustained offshore flow and the presence of relatively cool ocean surface temperatures allowed these regions a very localized reprieve from the extreme heat. This “cool coast/hot inland” setup is most pronounced during California heatwaves occurring earlier in the calendar year, when coastal upwelling tends to be strongest and when the natural “air conditioning” provided by the marine layer is at its most effective. Autumn heatwaves, on the other hand, tend to be characterized by stronger offshore flow and are more “isothermal”–with similarly hot temperatures occurring far inland and at the immediate coast.

 

Western ridge rebuilds; heat & and monsoonal flow commence

Strong high pressure will set up shop in a classic summer monsoon position over the interior Southwest in the coming days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

It does appear that Western heat will make a return this week. This, time, as the western ridge builds, middle atmospheric winds will turn toward the southeast over California–opening the door for a substantial influx of monsoonal moisture for the first time this year. As anticyclonic circulation strengthens in the coming days, afternoon thunderstorms will develop to an increasingly widespread degree over the deserts of northern Mexico and southern Arizona, the remnants of which will eventually move from east to west over Southern California. This is a classic early monsoon pattern, and it’s one that the global weather models can capture well at the large scale, but the details are usually rather hard to discern more than a couple of days in advance.

At the moment, it does appear that Southern (and possibly central California as far north as the Bay Area) may be in a generally favorable position to see occasional pulses of moisture and mid-level atmospheric instability over the next 2 weeks. This will probably lead to bouts of widespread mountain and desert thunderstorms, and probably at least a couple of shots at isolated thunderstorms across coastal areas. The timing is impossible to pin down at this point, as weak mesoscale disturbances rotating around the 4-Corners High will dictate the highest likelihood of thunderstorms. As usual, there will be some fire weather concerns associated with dry lightning (especially in the wake of our big heatwave).

Monsoonal moisture will likely overspread much of California in the coming days, leading to mountain and desert thunderstorms. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The upcoming heatwave won’t be nearly as intense as the last one, although it will still be quite hot away from the coast (and increasing humidity across Southern California may yield increasingly “muggy” conditions as well). There is a bit of uncertainty at the moment regarding how long the strong western ridge will persist. But there are indications that it will be pretty long-lived–and may yield a prolonged 2+ week period of relatively hot conditions and somewhat frequent opportunities for monsoonal moisture and associated convective activity (especially mountains and deserts). It’s that time of year!

 

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  • Yolo Hoe
  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    its been around 20 days since the summer solstice, and for people living around San Jose we have lost 10 minutes of daylight. Our mornings are 9 minutes darker, and the evening has gotten darker by one minute. The next 20 days will see a reduction of 28 minutes. Stats on weather is the same as stats on Baseball, exciting to crunch the numbers

    • BethElDoradoHills

      we are very happy for this development – our night-blooming cereus seems to bloom better in the darker nights

      • Tuolumne

        You can’t be cereus!

        • BethElDoradoHills

          because of its photosynthetic pathway, it seems to do better in the darker nights and thats no joke

  • Fairweathercactus

    Looks like heavy fog is rolling in. No one forecasted that.

  • Craig Matthews
    • Pfirman

      You can warm up at Mt. Lassen too, but looks like you can’t get to those features yet. Thanks for the vicarious pleasure.

      • Craig Matthews

        Bumpass Hell is visible but dangerous b/c snow cover surrounding it. Still can hike to top of peak, there’s actually no snow for a big part of the way up the se flank of the Mtn. If I had more time….

    • Thanks for the variety. Nice shots. Oh how I wish a google street view car was driving by. πŸ™‚

    • gray whale

      I see Sasquatch!

      • Craig Matthews

        I think I may have seen Yeti up there too… πŸ˜‰

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      What is the elevation?

      • Craig Matthews

        ~7600ft

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Pfirman

      Oh, the humanity. Reminds me of some painting…..hmmm.

  • Thor

    Not to spam a CA weather blog with pics from elsewhere but had to share- The skies in MT are always changing- its a real treat for a weather dork. Each day dawns cloudless and by the afternoon storms are popping up- if not overhead somewhere within viewing distance. Yesterday saw multiple storms traverse Gallatin county dropping an inch of rain and several bursts of hail. The last one left us with a treat as the temp dropped from 87 to 64 in about 2hrs.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6301f889cc188819b080603560a073cde7d0fe5936dbbfe1f12c4ceed4f04c54.jpg

    • Cap’n

      So true. I lived in Durango and Bozeman for a year and in both those locations the afternoon storms were more reliable than I was at time. Great shot, glad you’re still checking in.

      • Thor

        Thanks, Cap’n

    • Drew Stofflet

      Lived in the Colorado mountains for 15 yrs…number one pleasure of life I miss…afternoon naps with thunder cracking off the peaks ringing and rumbling down the canyons and valleys.

  • Cap’n

    80 closed in both directions thanks to Mr. Farad. Lots of displaced big rigs lurking around the basin.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I saw that, someone posted they’re not letting semis over 267…..not sure if that’s true. Pictures earlier showed the fire at the freeway.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    had to head to CH’s area today for work………..Redding. I deal with heat but I am not sure how you guys deal with the 90 degree temps at 10am! Although it’s nice to see snow on Shasta!

  • Apollo

    Anybody been paying any particular attention (news) to the swarm of earthquakes in erea of Mammoth Lakes. There has been multiple small quakes being registered almost hourly for the last few days. Are the hot springs getting hotter lately???

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Truckee CHP has been posting videos (their PIO is awesome). The Farad Fire has burned down to the freeway, looking at the videos pretty obvious why it’s closed. Between the equipment, crews, and animals running scared it’s a dangerous place.

    https://www.facebook.com/chp.truckee/posts/1933121303566498
    https://www.facebook.com/chp.truckee/videos/pcb.1933097616902200/1933097176902244/?type=3&theater

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Too humid for comfort in Santa Maria. On the flip side, it’s helping progress on the two large wildfires in Santa Barbara County. More hazy than smoky today.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Cool humid air and lower temps are a great help.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)

    The forecast high today is supposed to be 75F, but its 79F now. Another warmer day with than expected forecast. I believe that the NWS is underestimating the heat this upcoming weekend.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Saw this on Twitter and had to share amazing what a difference.

    https://twitter.com/miranda_030/status/884844494000082944

  • GFS has continuously backed off on this weekend’s monsoonal push, anyone know if EC followed this trend?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Euro has come into agreement with the GFS the easterly wave will likely eject over north Baja instead of SoCal 7 out to sea. Unfortunately, only bringing more humid conditions though with the upcoming heart.

  • Craig Matthews

    Lake Almanor 7-10-2017. Lake looks like its flooding up into the trees right next to HWY 89. Question for the locals, is this Lake level a record for Lake Almanor? Can’t find that info on the net.. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/293c318c714bf66fa77c79363b0e23a8140ab752c06871747e115eaa0039582f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/eeb63e5accd1e167c34edb4d0cabd6bf4ffd194329d84a2557688431df1c9811.jpg

    • Admode (Susanville)

      It has a max elevation because it has a spillway, and I don’t think it’s ever reached it, but has been close. Oldsnowsurveyer can tell you everything you’d ever want to know about that lake.

      • Craig Matthews

        Thanks. Just looks unusual to see the Lake up in the Ponderosa Pines. I didn’t notice the lake going over the spillway.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          During the spring the west side of 89 was flooded like that too. It was pretty incredible how much water there was. I’m pretty sure water didn’t go over the spill way at any point this year, even with all the water.

          • Craig Matthews

            Wow. I noticed along HWY 44, in the area to the northeast of Lassen Peak in the flats between Susanville to Old Statin, there was still standing water under the Jeffery Pine stands. In mid July!!..
            I spent a winter up in Quincy in 1992-93, and during that winter ’93, there was 5 feet on the ground by the end of January, with roofs collapsing in town due to the weight of the heavy wet snow. Everyone in town was saying how unusual that was for that area. I think Quincy is just below 3500ft.? Always wanted to know what Lake Almanor was like after that winter… and after winter 1995 too. The precip totals this winter up in the Plumas looked greater then those 1990’s winters, though am curious how the higher snow level affected that particular Lake as far as Lake level compared to those great winters of the past. I can’t seam to find much info on the net about that Lake so hoping to get some info from the locals. Love that area up there…

          • Tuolumne

            Google Earth says about 3400′ so you’re spot on.

          • Craig Matthews

            Beat me to it, thanks lol.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            The locals talk about that winter a lot. Susanville got hammered, Chester got buried. Almanors levels are controlled by pge based on forecasting.

          • Craig Matthews

            I remember coming out one morning and my truck totally buried and power lines down everywhere in January ’93. Town was shut down and snow just kept coming down. Wonder what those winters, 1951-52, and 1968-69 were like up there in the Plumas. A few posters on this blog from the Sierra talk about those winters being even snowier and the stats.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            The 44 are had water everywhere this year. Just about every forest road had damage to some extent. It’s a very “pondy” area and has dried up so fast since winter. But yes, some spots are still holding water well. Long lake out towards Bogard has completely dried up a few times since I have been there but this year it’s holding fish!

          • Craig Matthews

            I remember passing a station that was Bogard on 44. Was somewhere, maybe 10mi northwest of there where I saw that standing water in the Pines. That whole area looks very green to me, being that I’ve been down in the central valley this last month.

      • Since June 1st, lake elevation has changed just a little. According to CDEC it could still rise about 100 feet before spilling. ~4492′ latest reports vs full lake elevation at 4600′. It’s a pretty shallow lake

        • Craig Matthews

          Interesting, that’s some mega flood control.

  • Fairweathercactus

    The GFS has shown less of a surge. What it does show looks like what we had a few days ago. Just a lot of moisture doing a lot of nothing.

    • Pfirman

      They were commuting to work somewhere not near you.

  • AlTahoe
  • inclinejj

    New fire at Clipper Gap.

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Admode (Susanville)

      Los Padres, you still work for the FS? I’m on your forest right now.

  • Does anyone else think we’re becoming a fire spotting blog? I’ve been guilty of it and a few other things not directly weather related. If I’m a minority then apologies. Just thinking out loud

    • Admode (Susanville)

      I get where you are coming from, I feel like fire pics are just as weather related as flood pics.

    • It’s heat related. So yes, fires are Weather related. ?

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)

    Here is how the 1st 10 days of July has been in Santa Maria. The highest max temp was 82F on July 8th and July 10th. The lowest min temp was 47F on July 3th. The lowest max temp was 67F on July 1st. The highest min temp was 57F on July 8th.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/396a54e5d5fbd59cc5339cf4e9d37196c50ddd48ae95b2cf2ce8b4504fc042ea.png

  • JT (San Jose, CA)

    At least 20 fire trucks up to Alum Rock/ Sierra Vista.

  • JT (San Jose, CA)

    With at least two choppers…

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)
  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)

    The Alamo Fire 45% Contained and basically stopped growing.

    http://www.fire.ca.gov/current_incidents/incidentdetails/Index/1628

    • RandomTreeInSB

      60% contained Now with no growth. Good news.
      Meanwhile the Whittier fire continues to spit ash on the south coast.

  • thebigweasel
  • Nathan

    I’d like to report some surprising news: I am not, currently, on fire.

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)

    I’m ready for fall and winter weather now.

    • Peavine Violet

      Amen to that. Already done with July and heat and fire and smoke and…. my least fave month (only good thing is higher level hiking)

      • inclinejj

        Wake me up when September ends!

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Been saying this for a week or so now lol.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Coastal low clouds moving onshore this evening, keeping moisture levels high. Otherwise more typical July conditions today.
    90/ 69

    • Craig Matthews

      Is that a “close to” average temp spread for your location?

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        88/ 65

  • Craig Matthews
    • Craig Matthews

      Just think, a trough like would also suggest an atmospheric environment conducive for mtn convection over the Northern Mtns/Trinities, Mt Shasta and Lassen, with snow showers up top Mt Shasta if enough moisture is around. Maybe even a line of convection over far Northern Sacramento Valley. Its a far stretch right now….but these events have happened smack dab in the middle of hot summers before….happened in July 1987, and also a mid summer event in the hot summer of 1988.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        It would be a great reprieve for the state during this fire season. I recall July 2015 being cooler than average due to weak troughs undercutting a Western ridge but August/ Sept turned hot/ humid once again.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      That looks like a winter storm in the middle of summer! Of course it is in fantasyland range and will likely not verify, but it would indeed be interesting if something like that did happen.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      I looked at the GFS the other night that showed what looked like a category 3 hurricane coming across Florida and crossing the gulf and plowing into Louisiana in the time frame of 7/20 ~ 7/23.. Today, there’s NO sign of it, at all.

      I got zero confidence in the GFS that far out.

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        The skill scores for both the GFS and the Euro models are pretty bad. Joe Bastardi commented about it a dew days ago on one of his updates. The chart they use to show the scores had them both rock bottom.

      • Craig Matthews

        We shouldn’t even have confidence 6 days out….look what happened to our big monsoonal push way up through the state….gone! Socal could still get something but not up here in norcal. Just keeping my fingers crossed we could get something like that trough just to give us a break from the heat.

    • alanstorm

      Right.. I WISH

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That map could be somebody’s wishcast!

        • alanstorm

          Wondering what happened to the monsoonal flow into SoCal. Was hoping to live vicariously thru others thunderstorm pics by now

      • Craig Matthews

        I wish. By next run likely POOFgone. Just nice to look at for a few seconds.

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      All I’m asking for is a stronger marine layer.

    • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)

      I want some cold fronts with rain!

  • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)
    • Pfirman

      Some wildlife coming out of the bush in that lower pic. I wonder what a station like that would cost?

      • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

        I almost think it was helicopter’d in, because access is so poor

  • Thunder98 (Santa Maria, CA)
  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Just saw that the Truckee River Rafting Company was informed by the Federal Water Master that they will be lowering the Truckee flow to a rate that will be too low for rafting until the lend of July. Seems counter intuitive with the lake so high and continued snow melt. I am sure there is a logical reason – anyone know what that reason is?

    • inclinejj

      Wait till the people on Lakeshore Drive to start screaming.

    • matthew

      Wild guess – riding past Boca, Stampede and Prosser in the past few day shows that they are all full. Boca is the fullest I have ever seen it and Stampede is close. Since they all drain into the Truckee River they may need to decrease flows upstream at Tahoe City (where most of the rafting companies run) in order to increase the flows out of those other reservoirs and avoid downstream flooding in Reno.

      • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

        Sounds reasonable. Hadn’t thought of that. Thanks!

      • Hardcort

        Tahoe City was releasing 1,600-2,000 cf/s in mid-April and total flow was near 4,000 cf/s out of Truckee. The release today at Tahoe city is 250 cf/s. The watershed that feeds stampede and Boca is relatively small compared to the Tahoe basin and increasing the release out of Boca to a greater degree shouldn’t impact flood potential in Reno. Might be some other reason imo

      • Hardcort

        One thought. It might be the new road and bridge under construction across the Truckee just downstream from the dam that just broke ground on last month

  • Fairweathercactus

    Cactus was right again noticing the cuts days before the NWS.

    Area forecast discussion
    National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
    934 am PDT Wed Jul 12 2017

    Mdls have trimmed back on the monsoon flow and now it does not
    look too convective in the afternoon and evenings. Just a slight
    chc of thunderstorm over the eastern san Gabriels.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Only high surf

    • Dan the Weatherman

      BORING! We need the models to trend the other way for some summer excitement around here!

  • Nathan

    Comment on seemingly ridiculous number of fire starts over the past 2 weeks:

    Are there really more fires than historically under similar conditions? Or are we just better at reporting, cataloging, and tracking them?

    Since most human-caused seem to be the result of car exhaust or car accidents, would it make sense to line road shoulders in fire prone areas with significant amounts of gravel, where possible?

    • inclinejj

      Fire is big business. Lots of vendors supply food, showers, porta potties etc.

      I have notice many areas try to clear about 15-20 feet of brush away from the pavement.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Nice cooling. Per the handy Dew Point Comfort graphic humidity is “sticky”/ “uncomfortable” [61-70Β°] but no complaints so long as temps stay seasonable. After the next ridge moves on California will enjoy positive fire-fighting weather. Dolores in 2015 dumped on a serious fire in Cajon Pass; we were spared major fires in SoCal that summer. Eugene is sending high surf but no rain πŸ™

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    Anybody else notice that the NAM mesoscale models do a poor job and have a tough time handling any monsoonal Convection? Seems only the HRRR has been able to predict any convective activity associated with the monsoon.. also the GFS has been doing a good job of anything the GFS over predicts monsoonal moisture influxes to a higher degree and especially when more than 3-5 days out..

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      As you mention, any monsoonal moisture surge here in SoCal is typically hard to predict by the models without any “trigger” mechanism (i.e. easterly wave, inverted trough, tropical system remnants, etc.). I don’t usually follow the models for monsoonal moisture and possible precip/convection outlooks, but rely on local NWS AFD’s and their detailed local soundings and plot data.

  • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

    Saw on Next Door that San Jose police think an arsonist is causing the recent fires in the San Jose area.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Wouldn’t be surprised. There are a lot of sick, angry people out there. It’s sad and scary.

      • Henry

        Being “sick” or “angry” is no excuse. Arsonists are absolute human refuse. Sorry to be politically incorrect (:sarcasm:) but they are pure evil. They should be punished in the same way that Singapore punishes drug dealers.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I thought the first fire (Monday) was caused by a car. They showed the burned out shell of a Porsche I believe and the owner even said he had to run down the hill to get cell coverage.

    • Henry

      I would be in favor of revising the state’s laws so that any criminal convicted of intentionally and maliciously setting a fire that destroys another person’s home is sentenced to death. Arsonists deserve to die, because they are trash.

    • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

      You can also spot that eddy spinning offshore of point conception allowing for coastal stratus..

    • Yolo Hoe

      Wow! A dystopian image of sorts

      • It’s a clear day. though! πŸ™‚
        In the valley, the cities and towns are harder to spot but their signature is similar to greater LA

  • alanstorm

    Any update on the GFS potential TROUGH setting up over NorCal that Craig posted last night?
    Yes, inaccurate past 7 days.
    No, I don’t care.
    Yes, I need a light at the end of the heat-tunnel even if it illusionary

    • AntiochWx

      I think it will remain offshore, even now models have backed away on the lower heights, in fact the trough looks flatter and further north than a few days ago. However its presence will still be felt, it should battle the ridge somewhat with decent onshore flow.

      • alanstorm

        Thx. Shining beam is now a pin-prick, however it is a light nonetheless.

        • AntiochWx

          Yeah it kinda sucks, I was hoping the trough would sit overhead, but that ridge to the east is a PITA. Most of California has been trending normal to above normal weather swings for the last month anyways, I don’t see much of a break in that trend.

          • alanstorm

            July has always been the “Suffer Month” for me since I generally work outside, last 17 years here in Mendocino Interior.
            “…..there is no escape!”

          • AntiochWx

            Yeah July’s have been particularly warm in California, in fact I don’t think California has experienced a cooler July since 2011-2012 timeframe.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Makes the cold beer taste better at end of the day — a momentary escape?

      • Pfirman

        Yeah, return of triple digit to which I give the single digit. It appears increased humidity is going to be an added factor in future weather.

        I just learned that heat pumps deal with humidity much better than typical AC units, plus they don’t burn fuel in the winter. Looking into them right now.

        • annette johnson

          We all have heat pumps here in the furnace lol. Mine is about 25 years old but works great. The newer units are much more energy efficient.

    • thlnk3r

      News flash…it’s Summer! Enjoy the heat for a few more Months πŸ˜‰

      • AntiochWx

        See I don’t agree with marginalizing what is going on. Sure our summers are “warm” no matter what year, however this year is clearly above average and is statistically meaningful.

        • thlnk3r

          Each year we approach and even break Heat records for the Inland Empire. It’s not uncommon to see this each Summer. At least for this area, Summer is usually between 90-110 till about September. Multiple heatwaves that last a few weeks is sort of an expected thing during this time Β―_(?)_/Β―

          • Dan the Weatherman

            That is certainly true, as the Inland Empire can and does get very hot during the summer. The one thing that stands out to me is that the summer pattern started about 2 weeks earlier than usual (back in mid June as opposed to early to mid July). Other than that, it has been a typical hot and sometimes humid summer so far.

          • AntiochWx

            I understand we go though summers with extended heat and challenge records at times, but the overall warmth over 30 and 60days averages are above normal. Above normal doesn’t not equal typical summer averages. I’m not saying these last particular heatwaves were not uncommon but being 7th warmest June and in general smashing records year in year out in California weather records is not normal.

          • thlnk3r

            Not sure what to tell you man. Whether we are above normal or normal, it’s going to be hot and miserable for next few Months. The IE usually gets a break from the Summer heat about mid October.

      • alanstorm

        I got your newsflash

  • AntiochWx

    Well it looks like the recent runs on the GFS have been fairly consistent now in the short to medium range, looks like a trough will set up just offshore, not with the axis over land however. A few days with the ridge nearby will cause 100F+ days, but then retreats to the east. I don’t think the trough will set up enough inland to cause below normal temps, however I think it will have enough influence to totally get us back to fully normal conditions to even slightly below normal! Should increase the onshore flow and thicken the marine layer at the least.

    • Still would not be totally surprised to see some isolated coastal lightning at some point, as flow pattern remains favorable and models don’t always capture mesoscale features very well in advance.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      The Whittier fire made a large order to beef up their resources in anticipation of a sundowner event starting friday.

  • AntiochWx

    Question, if the WPO is positive in July, that usually correlates to a near normal or below normal temp pattern right? If so the WPO is forecasted to be slightly positive during this timeframe with the offshore trough.

    ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png

  • cthenn

    Uh…the “weekend heatwave” seems to be kicking in a bit early. It feels very warm outside, downright hot standing around in the sun. Weather stations picking up mid and upper 90’s in the inland East Bay, and it feels hotter than the upper 80’s where I am.

    • AntiochWx

      I don’t think it starting early, just not getting that cool wind push from bay. Also the high pressure is fairly resilient, eventhough the ridge will push further east, it still wants to flex its influence into California. You can see on the GFS even though the center of the HP is closer to the midwest, it wants to flatten and have the axis run more NW to SE rather than north to south.

  • AntiochWx
  • mattzweck

    not much weather going on here in the high desert Lancaster area about 100 out and hazy with smokey conditions off and on from the fires burning in the state. try to keep everyone up to date about the conditions here. been helping my girlfriend out with college papers.

  • AntiochWx
  • AntiochWx

    Side note, I don’t like talking politics in a weather forum, however anyone who loves these climate temp maps from our regional climate centers, please sign the petition to get funding, otherwise they may shutdown the websites due to lack of funding. So sad!

    https://dataforms.lsu.edu/hprcc

    • AntiochWx

      I actually talked to an employee with the Western Regional Climate Center, and they said since CaliClim is a direct joint venture with them, the potential also extends to them. I love CaliClim, so frustrating.

    • I filled one out this morning. It’s a great site. I have too many bookmarks yet this is one I know by memory πŸ™‚

      • AntiochWx

        I really hope congress does not pass the funding proposal cuts.

  • Fairweathercactus

    How is the pdo looking these days?

  • AntiochWx

    Statistically June was top 7th warmest June on record for state wide of California. Impressive, and not your typical summer time weather. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cacc132caa6db1f73f3c76529d791740275758380d2037b6d2f82b3bf06f56b7.png

    • A lot of back loaded heat in June too IIRC

      • AntiochWx

        Yep, the first part started out normal, then the heat moved in and has been stuborn to leave in any length of time.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          It does seem that the first half of June was more normal and the heat really came on during the second half of the month. A good portion of May was cool in Socal with even some rain in Socal during the first half of the month.

          • Craig Matthews

            When I got up to Redding for work on June 6th, it was cool and showery, with snow in the mountains around 6000ft. Then the next week…BAAAM!! The heat was on!! Like someone flipped a switch to HEAT. So much for the nice transition into summer mode. That flip in June was very sudden. I was hoping this would not happen, because to me it seams like this heat is melting the snow too fast, even with the exceptional amounts of snow. And it seams like this ongoing heat is evaporating our exceptional winter’s rains too quickly from the earth on the midslopes of the hills in Norcal and Central CA, which would seam to not be giving the mid slope trees much of a break from the last several years of exceptional drought.

          • PRCountyNative

            Welcome to climate change. We must have much more heat, greater and longer, if it is true…

            Maybe the line between marine and hot/dry will get very distinct, and close to the coast.

          • AntiochWx

            It is true, which is why I get upset when people try to normalize consistently higher than normal anomalous temperatures.

          • PRCountyNative

            I agree. Craig gets it too, his description gybes with what they tell us to expect – less snow, less runoff, much more frequent and intense heat waves.

            Following from that is a lot – for human civilization as well as the flora and fauna.

            I think I have a problem with the NWS normalizing aberrant conditions by changing the baseline. 30 years of ‘new weather’ will become the new baseline, then it will all be average again.

            Maybe our evaporation will become someone else’s much needed rain. Maybe not.

          • Pfirman

            More likely from more than a few cases our evaporation becomes someone else’s floods. Not really ‘our evaporation’, but I mean to say things are awkwardly crazy.

          • AntiochWx

            I’m not ready to declare total loss to our precipitation averages, I think long term averages will stay close to average, but more extremes both ways. Daniel had a very good writeup about climate change and CA long term precipitation. Warming conditions are a given, but I still hold out hope for our precip.

      • Pfirman

        June? Why are we talking about June? July hasn’t been a cakewalk, and is warming back up. We are not even half way through. I’m experiencing July, rhymes with fry.
        Kind of a wet fry with the humidity.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      This summer definitely feels warner than the past three summers for us. It started slow with a string of cool days then went the other way. We’ve probably had more 100 degree days thus far then for all of the last couple of summers. I don’t think we’ve had a daytime temp below 95 degrees during the past three weeks.

      • AntiochWx

        But these are state wide numbers, not IMBY numbers. But for interior locations, I agree, def feels warmer.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          And I am not basing my conclusions on any weather data, just basing it on my flimsy memory, lol

          • AntiochWx

            I’m not trying to pick on you or be condescending. I just try and stay away from anecdotal and IMBYism, and more on statistical and empirical data.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            No worries. I didn’t take it that way

    • Craig Matthews

      Only 3 below average Junes for statewide since 2000….that is nuts!

      • AntiochWx

        This is were I’m getting at, glad you understand it. It’s not normal, and we will be hard pressed to see 5 below average June’s in a row anytime soon.

        • 82/83 El Nino baby (San Jose)

          I agree, but in CA, it seems that extremes tend to favor heat vs cold. I have no data to support, just 30+ years of living in San Jose and remembering so many more crazy heatwaves where we go 20+ degrees above normal vs instances where we are 20+ degrees below normal.

          • AntiochWx

            It does look like June’s statewide climate data does swing a lot in either extreme cold and warm, however I can see plenty of months near the average lines. Like Craig said, it’s more crazy seeing the last 17 years only having 3 months below average.

        • Craig Matthews

          The annual mean temperature departure from average for the state looks similar too. Very few below average years since the late 1990’s.

  • Shane Ritter

    It feels like Reno has been on fire non stop. 5th big fire in 2 weeks. 20k + acres by Doyle. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ed0ad5187deb0de76d17f4e0ce5c819c2f7a77cf5882d5f3f9206df4b770131a.jpg has

    • Thunderstorm

      Huge green blob over the fire this evening on radar. The blob is stationary which means it is smoke. Visible satellite shows huge plume headed NE. Poor fire fighting conditions for awhile there. Here in the SF bay area getting tired of the inversion layers in the morning. Need sun glasses to drive.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        20,000 acres 0% containment last I saw. Every time I leave town for work during the summer there is a big fire there. Rush, Willard and now long valley.

    • Charlie B

      Reno is so close to hell you can see Sparks.

      • Pfirman

        Is this a mustang thing?

  • thebigweasel

    Alamo Fire is 84% contained, at about 28,000 acres. Conditions are dry and warm, expected to become more humid this afternoon, no wind now, gusts to 18 by 3pm.
    Whittier fire 60% contained, cool and moist conditions. Firefighters moving to contain before less favourable weather at the weekend.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      A fascinating watch from the last time the Whittier Fire zone burned in 1955, this thorough documentary describes the massive blaze that burned for only 10 days 88000 acres in a drought stressed landscape under autum dry offshore/sundowner conditions…really worth it if you have the time/interest.
      http://youtu.be/I0n-_lP9iGs

      • thebigweasel

        Ah, yes. The Refugio Fire. I watched that this afternoon. It addressed the issue of erosion and run-off into the Lake quite well, and Refugio burned BOTH sides of the Lake.

  • Craig Matthews

    So this is what happens to me when I get caught up in the models, lol. The GFS model has really struggled with the alignment/tilt of the Ridge axis and its associated anti-cyclonic field over the Western U.S the last few days(playing with my emotions). On the June 9 06z run, GFS had the Ridge axis near where the NV, UT, and Idaho border lines meet, with the Ridge tilt fairly neutral(close to N-S), which placed Socal in a deep ese flow, central CA in a se flow, and Norcal in a sse flow. This forecast Ridge position/alignment would bring hot/humid conditions all the way up the West Coast and interior West, along with a deep monsoonal flow up the entire state, bringing a high threat of elevated convection/thunderstorms to the lowlands and widespread afternoon convection over the mtns. However recent GFS runs, ie the overnight 06Z, have shifted idea, now having the Ridge axis positioned to the southeast compared to the the earlier forecasts, and now has the Ridge “bubble” switched to a sw to ne tilt. This will mean less heat and less monsoonal moisture over the state….as that Ridge’s axis and associated anti-cyclonic field “tilt” now places Socal in a se flow, central CA in a southery flow, and Norcal in a drier more stable ssw to sw flow in the mid and upper levels. Looks like Socal and Central CA would still have a threat of elevated convection(outside of terrain driven afternoon storms), but Norcal would have much less threat of elevated convection, but still a threat of afternoon terrain driven storms primarily in the Sierra Crest region eastward. It looks possible that a disturbance riding up the western edge of the Ridge could still bring a threat of convection to Norcal, with a possibility of afternoon convection over the Northern Mtns and southern Cascades, but that threat is much less as I mentioned. I am wondering if the cause of this shift in idea has to do with a strengthening of the NPac jet forcing the movement of the trough west of the PacNw??? Anyway, It is interesting how the models have struggled with these ideas lately, even in the mid and shorter range forecasts. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/627a4fe1826cda0e591c933240f83e2e5c4bfd2617294ffb8dbf9a1ad58d9b22.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c5372e01793a3df8e38268541b86a46bf410749522f8fe269d2d013c8ec14c27.png

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Dew point temps are high in parts of the desert this morning:
    BLYTHE SUNNY 89 73 59 S13 29.89R HX 97
    IMPERIAL SUNNY 89 76 65 SE9 29.85R HX 100

    • annette johnson

      Maybe some moisture being pumped in from what’s left over from Eugene?

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        How high have dew points been in Lake Havasu so far?

        • annette johnson

          50 ish the last few days. Temps have been around 110. After that last storm things dried up a bit.

  • weathergeek100

    Bay area weather is sooooooo boring this time of year! Jealous of SoCal and their thunderstorm chances increasing again. Also jealous of their warm SSTs:

    “Above normal sea
    surface temperatures will keep dew point temperatures higher than
    normal, and make it feel more humid along the coast.”

    -SD AFD

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      I suspect many in So Cal would gladly trade their overall annual weather patterns with No Cal. They probably feel the same way in Nov-Feb when it is raining buckets in No Cal and it is bone dry down there

  • molbiol

    That’s it- I give up!! All the models and their ensembles have a different idea on the position and strength and orientation of the 500mb four-corners ridge with individual runs contradicting each other and either propping up or dashing away my hopes for thunderstorms. I think I will just take it a day at a time and whatever happens will happen.

    • PRCountyNative

      “I think I will just take it a day at a time and whatever happens will happen”

      That’s a great way to live life. Try it.

      Continuously desperately hoping for a low probability event is a great formula for disappointment and unhappiness. A distraction from things you have power over.

      Thank you for the reminder!

    • mattzweck

      I just usually wait to see what happens weather. Wise.

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Remnants of Eugene overhead this morning courtesy of Rick Dickert/ Fox11. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d53fa262fb7e8b0a6108f60a31b95c2c937f1e7f99a19c2f7aa1ab8d09d9eb7.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      Should’ve opted for Dick Dickert – would attract more viewers!

      • PRCountyNative

        Someone had to say something!

  • DelMarSD

    Scripps Pier water temp is 75.6. Nice!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      When I was a regular ocean swimmer I would especially enjoy the warm water in the late afternoon/ evening even if it meant swimming in the dark due to the warm water.

    • weathergeek100

      Back in the day as a teenager, me and my friends would have bonfires at the beach in Oceanside and pour beer in water bottles so cops couldn’t tell we were drinking. After getting a bit tipsy, we would run into the ocean at 11pm. I remember how warm it would get in late summer (or even early summer, like July 2006) and it felt so nice.

      People in SoCal always complain how cold the ocean is down there. They should try the bay area. Water temps are currently anywhere from 50-55 and I need to layer up to face the nippy seabreeze here in SF when I leave work today. Temperatures regularly fall into the 50s by late afternoon. It’s quite annoying.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        I remember swimming in the Pacific of Monterey bay [Sea Cliff/ Capitola] and how long it would take to get in the water but once we started body surfing, it was fine but chilly.

    • Bombillo1

      Boogie Boarded LJ Shores today with grandson. 2 hours with no wet suit, could have done 4 hours. Felt like Figi.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • PRCountyNative

      Are there any interesting weather effects that follow from cold water from continuing upwelling in the north colliding with ever warmer water from the south, at Pt Concepcion?

      Left side of tweet, above. I don’t believe the NW wind is going to go away any era soon.

    • PRCountyNative

      Almost no place in the whole world’s oceans below average. Or, everywhere above average. The only cold spot is where Greenland melted.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Woah.

    • Still some +SSTA across Pacific down to 75M, too. Zonal wind anomalies pretty flat.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      The Blob will be rubbing up against the Kamchatka Peninsula’s leg. Bad Dog!

      • Pfirman

        Almost sounds like a political comment, heh.

    • Does this mean more potential AR’s this winter season with the above normal tropical Pacific?

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    looks like a two day heatwave over the weekend. Sunday being the warmest. The good thing about this summer is that it can’t get worse then that June week long heatwave.

  • Admode (Susanville)
    • Pfirman

      Five days ago, but still spectacular. Look at Daniel’s tweets.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        The one that the Eiler created in 2014 was pretty spectacular but that was at the end of july not the beginning. Plus it was following consecutive drought years, not an extremely wet winter. Pretty incredible.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Sorry if it had already been posted, I missed it.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Some good MCS activity occurring in NW Mexico/Southern AZ. Should juice things up a bit upstream in the flow, & produce some outflow which might perpetuate things, depending on how much staying power these storms have. Models seldom handle these very well.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e02f0523d6dea0d2883cc8f91e3c561731520e038433e07d95a3964d9770e108.jpg

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Maybe an easterly wave overnight.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      There’s an inverted trough developing over S/W Texas and N/E Mexico at present. If everything comes together it will continue to move west around the HP center and be part of our weather over the weekend. The models are continuing to have a difficult time forecasting the monsoon moisture and trough movement though the EC is the more robust while the GFS keeps it more south and east.

  • happ [Los Angeles]
    • Pfirman

      Sweet vicarious alanstorm.

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Bryan Snider is Alanstorm?

        • Pfirman

          No, but alanstorm was hoping to have vicarious thrills via SoCal monsoon pics…….they failed to deliver but that does.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Dang! Makes my hair stand up! That’s an amazing image!

  • AntiochWx

    Did anyone see the fantasy cane on the 12z gfs today, fantasy raking of NYC

  • AntiochWx

    Also, for anyone that doesn’t know. If all you weather geeks like me love weather in general, you should check out this awesome site.

    americanwx.com

    • Chris

      Thank you! Just bookmarked.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Same here!

    • Craig Matthews

      Bookmarking that one as well. Thanks.

      • AntiochWx

        It a total weather enthusiast dream, where meteorologist and passionate weather people come together and talk fundamental weather. It’s a lot like here, but just think of having like 100 other Daniels around! It’s awesome especially during the winter, it heats up.

      • AntiochWx

        I was hoping to drag a group of people to check it out, not many westerns on there and it would be nice to have a cal group around during the winters so the red taggers (mets) give input.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Spending the next week in Maui, HI. First evening watching the sunset and we’re awestruck by the beauty of this part of the world. Have a look at these images. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4535d8559439b547cb1de9139b3f829e4d36cc3da0846eb659ca267c9f15b469.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1b77f6aa02a51e50a54afcfd48208cee21ba26784c4787d6bb9ceeb524cedc8b.jpg

  • Bombillo1

    Exceptionally warm water in S. Cal. 75 degrees now @ La Jolla Shores. Palegic crabs beaching themselves by the millions in Catalina. Grasping for forward looking sign posts but this is remenicent of summer of 2012. You know how the winter went.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Winter 2012/13 was horribly dry but how does warm SST in July affect winter storms?

      • Bombillo1

        Anecdotally, cold eastern pacific seems to be more conducive to winter troughing digging south. Certainly anything that approaches blob status, I don’t want to see.

  • weathergeek100

    From Howard:

    “Some incipient thoughts about winter of 2017/18:

    Changes; The QBO after being in its positive phase for 24 months has become negative during the month of June. However, it is only weakly negative and may flip back. A positive QBO by some climate scientists is associated with a Trof in the west. However, this is not a widely accepted concept.

    SSTA’s. The warmer than normal sea surface temps in the Bering Sea and North Central Pacific during last fall has become warmer than normal again after being cooled over the Winter. The Warm Blob is still gone from the NE pacific.

    ENSO is currently in a very weak El Nino phase/ENSO neutral, and is forecasted to cool again this Fall and Winter. This leads to a greater bias towards more AR events for California.

    Sun solar cycle is heading for solar minimum and which again argues for a wetter winter for California.

    At the Moment, The Dweebs Bias is still wet for the Winter of 2018. But not as wet as last winter.”

    I’m not sure where he gets his arguments of solar mins and maxes contributing to CA climate, but it’s a theory he stresses often.

    • Thunderstorm

      Always good to see what Howard has too say.

      • weathergeek100

        I really love his analysis. Very detailed with lots of scientific backup (though sometimes he seems to go with his gut). He’s knowledgeable just like Daniel, even though they seem to have differing opinions at times (Daniel doesn’t agree with the solar theory for some good reasons, but who’s knows who is right).

        • I like and respect him, too. Howard can make forecasts in July and get away with it, right or wrong. I’m not taking anything away from his knowledge or love of meteorology. Folks who do forecasting for a living or pro Mets or folks like Daniel can’t – won’t – shouldn’t make a winter forecast in July.

        • mosedart (SF)

          I wouldn’t consider him even close to “knowledgeable like Daniel”. That’s pretty offensive to Daniel who has spent many years studying the physics of weather and climate.

    • SoCal folks rely on Bill Patzert….j/k

      This year again will depend IMO on where the predominant ridge sets up in the Pacific based on SST patterns as well as MJO phase space/amplitude and what time of year the MJO is in a certain phase. I’d still like to see SSTA cool off in the area of 20N to 40N and 160W to 120W.

      Also ‘relative’ SSTA in ENSO areas. I’m going to ‘screw’ Nino3.4. It’s an arbitrary area and I think an eastward weighted Nino3.4 is better than a westward weighted NIno3.4

      Last year was a LaNina modoki which have shown more promise of a normal to above normal precip pattern.
      Here’s a general link if anyone is interested.
      http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ Sometimes these are daunting to find info. Here’s another one.
      http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/

      • happ [Los Angeles]

        Right, Dr Patzert is especially adept at following SST w/ his climatology background. Bill has been a regular speaker at AMS meetings

        • LOL but I would probably be like him with an opinion on everything. His game is at JPL.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Patzert’s analysis is extremely important to the local Kayak sales community.

      • Craig Matthews

        Totally with you on the “relative ssta in ENSO areas” and weight given to west vs east Nino 3.4. IRT El Nino, I also think that the convection max/standing wave( dateline west orientated vs dateline east orientated) with the associated feedback loop positioning, state of the Indo Pacific Warm Pool domain(aka IPWP)-east IO , and along with the state of the Walker/Hadley is very important IRT El Nino development and sustainment and the associated teleconnections and effects.. and the ssta spatial pattern across the eq Pac is both a reflection and support to the El Nino system. Many times(not always) in order to get an El Nino to develop, the atmosphere is the initiator in the Kelvin Wave Generation Area and from there points east. Sometimes(not always) it is the ocean that gets the atmosphere to morph into an El Nino regime, but IMHO that is when the atmosphere is in a state that gives the ssta spatial pattern, that is in an El Nino like state, dominance to force an atmospheric transition toward El Nino. In the last decade or so, it appears that the atmospheric coupling with El Nino and associated ssta has had a westward focus compared to pre-1998. And we end up with a lacking ssta grad

        • Trades have been anonymously “flat”. They are blowing east to west but not at their screaming ‘normal’. Things will change (???) but our wishcast is still for 2005-06, right? πŸ™‚ What was going on IO wise in 2005? SOI in 2005 was roller coaster on the +side. MJO had a big episode over Indonesian Achegelapo in Sept 2005 otherwise….like “Elmer Fudd hunting”… Previous statements IMHO with loose cannon knowledge. LOL

          https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/184a907431c0e1d1d3db9c43d99bfc13b2e63e7c79f00b1c3fbc4610f684acdd.jpg

          • Craig Matthews

            Was agreeing with you about your thoughts on El Nino re: Nino 3.4. your 2nd paragraph down. Trying to add some of my thinking in there as well. Sorry went to far again, lol. And you thought you were a loose cannon LOL!!!!!
            Anyway, 2005, I see some similarities there. But the IO different could have an effect. QBO was easterly in the 50mb early winter 2005. -QBO is descending from 10mb now into 30mb, likely to be in the 50mb this fall. Other then that, 2005 is total wishcasting, lol..

  • weathergeek100

    OMG. Scroll down to the bottom and look at those SSTs. Yes, looks like they dropped a couple of degrees overnight by San Diego Bay still sitting at 77!

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=SGX&product=RWR&format=CI&version=1

  • weathergeek100

    For anyone complaining about 68 degree dewpoints in SoCal, check out Washington DC right now sitting at 78 degrees! Imagine a solid 10 degrees warmer. The temp may be 89 but the heat index is 103!!!

    Ah yes, the east coast in mid-July.

    http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KDCA.html

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Yeah, dew points are miserable along the East Coast today from southern New Jersey south. Good chance for active perhaps severe convection in DC

      • weathergeek100

        I wish I was there to check it out. That’s fun weather to be in. Most people hate it. But a weather geek complains about boring ‘nice’ bay area weather.

  • Thunderstorm

    Work has definitely pick up at the Oroville spillway. Good too see increased activity!

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Juicy dew points @ 9AM
    THERMAL SUNNY 92 70 48 N3 29.88S HX 97
    BLYTHE SUNNY 95 65 37 S9 29.91S HX 97
    IMPERIAL AP SUNNY 92 74 55 CALM 29.87R HX 101
    EL CENTRO NAS MOSUNNY 92 70 48 NW5 29.90R HX 97
    YUMA AZ SUNNY 96 66 37 S13 29.90R HX 99
    MEXICALI SUNNY 91 70 49 SE6 29.89R HX 97
    PHOENIX AZ MOSUNNY 93 62 35 SW5 29.96S

    • Craig Matthews

      Seams especially high for Blythe.

  • Charlie B

    Well there is still snow in the high country. This shows the White Mountains, the Owens Valley and then the Sierra. It was s toasty 96 at 8 am when we landed in Vegas at 8. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/84aec80b7c9a07a70ef45e438f584c5171d5db74b8c21bf7d4a882ec5ae5ae25.jpg

    • SoCalWXwatcher
    • Craig Matthews

      Thanks for this one. This gives a great view of what many of us are looking at on the visible satellite. It is amazing how deep some of those drifts are too, ie like the one on Carson Pass SoCalWXwatcher posted below here.

  • Thunder98
  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    The latest model runs kept pushing our predicted monsoon moisture influx further out day-by-day, Friday to Saturday, then to Sunday into Monday. Now, Oxnard in their latest AFD mentions it may not happen at all………say what?

    “The last issue of the forecast is for monsoon convection. The flow pattern really is not that conducive for a good monsoon push. There is really no threat today and only a minor one for the eastern LA county mtns on Saturday afternoon. Sunday once looked pretty promising but now the mdls have trended away the moisture keeping it to the south and east of the area”.

    As mentioned in earlier posts models typically have a very difficult time predicting these monsoon moisture influxes, so I guess we’ll wait and see how this progresses for us this weekend into early next week. But not to eliminate any possible convection in the near future check out this tidbit from the same AFD:

    “Mdls show a significant increase in moisture for Wednesday and Thursday. This could lead to much muggier conditions. If the mdls are correct with this moisture push there will also be the best monsoonal convection of the season to date. Still way too early to get truly excited about this but will have to monitor”.

    Here we go again…………

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like they have all the bases covered there.

    • Thunderstorm

      I have noticed that the clouds are higher based so far this summer, probably starting at 20,000ft. Believe in the past cloud bases were lower then that. Much more dry lightning with higher cloud deck.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Easterly wave didn’t want to go NW, Euro came into agreement with GFS that the energy & associated MCS activity would flow out over the coastal waters. 700mb flow pattern is like they said, “not conducive,” to pivot into the coast.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I was watching an old clip of NFL primetime and they noted record heat in late October 20th 1991 at Candlestick Park. The terminator showed 101 on the field. 49ers smashed the lions 3-35. I thought that was interesting.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      That was the day of the Oakland Firestorm I believe, the winds were crazy that day.

      • Fairweathercactus

        I just looked it up and it was. I thought it was a mistake but I guess not. Record heat all around No Cal that day. You could tell the heat was effecting both teams. More so the Lions.

        • PRCountyNative

          Crazy day, and night. I woke up in Oakland (hot, windless) and left for the coast. Later a strange cumulus-like cloud appeared off in the distance, towards the east bay. Before sunset it became clear it was a massive fire cloud.

          I remember that night on the news, newscasters seeing helicopter images, live shots, looking at all these little orange rectangles and they were saying “Those couldn’t ALL have been houses…”

          You could see hundreds, and hundreds, and hundreds. Unbelievable.

          Then images came out of people before dark, running, cars stuck, roads jammed. Juniper bushes exploding into blow torches, swirling winds.

          Crazy.

      • I was 1 years old. Glad I don’t remember witnessing something like that even on TV.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    The Whittier fire whipped up again with smoke and ash returning to the SB south coast. Looks like it’s attempting to burn back down the Santa Ynez mountains.
    View to the West
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/528e165bcc2237fab5d6e1e07b94bf068d161226a7d5ae200eb641a575b842bb.jpg
    South https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bb4d76d80d4c87139033924c6136bc74896335c724b0b55951897d2f385df5b.jpg

    • Is that a containment like in the first pic or a fire road?

      • RandomTreeInSB

        That’s the West Camino Cielo road, but they’re also using it as a firebreak.

        • thebigweasel

          Oh, man, that complex the fire is threatening is about 90% of our radio, TV and internet…

        • Great Winter of 2017 (SMC)

          Is the whole West Camino Cielo road engulfed in flames?

  • thebigweasel

    Nervous time on the West Side of Goleta. Mandatory evacuations for some 4,000 people, and we’re all watching the skies. I’m about eight miles east of the danger zone and in no danger. Sundowners are forecast, and our western sky is an orange wall. There’s a sharp delineation between smoke and clear sky which is probably also the line between the marine layer and mountain air. If it moves seaward, the winds have risen.
    So we watch, and hope for the folks out by Winchester Canyon…

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I had read earlier today strike teams were being demobilized from the Alamo fire and being reassigned to the Whittier Fire. Hopefully the crews can help get a line around it. Lots of Fire weather watches up for this weekend.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      This was all highly anticipated by the incident commander as they preluded with a backfire burn last night in anticipation to the fire moving swiftly on the southern flank with the wind shift and lower RH this afternoon…the evacuation is slightly precautionary to keep the human/civilian factor out of the equation…the lines are holding so far, along with the massive influx of resources coming in…

      So far, no sign of sundowners up here and I’m at the same elevation/aspect as the fire in the front country. Just heavy smoke and ash blowing in from the west…64F 40RH winds 2-5mph W.

      • thebigweasel

        Yeah, the response teams have done a great job.
        I thought the winds were coming up with the area of blue over the mountains suddenly expanded, but the smoke cover seems to have drifted back. I can see the plume visibly moving from here, eight miles away, so they have some wind there. Of course, it may be generated by the fire itself.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        We have been ordering extra resources for a few days in anticipation of this event. The IC has done a good job preparing for the worst.

    • DelMarSD

      Interesting thing about the sundowner winds. I’ve heard others comment about those recently. I had thought that sundowner winds were nearly identical to the Santa Ana winds, and often happened around the same time (early fall, late spring sometimes). It seems like they share a lot less in common with Santa Anas that I thought. They don’t seem to be due to inside sliders creating gusty offshore winds, and they seem to occur during the middle of the summer sometimes, whereas Santa Anas are extremely rare during the middle of the summer.

      • PRCountyNative

        Daniel is more of a climate guy than a weather guy… but maybe during our PREDICTABLY long and boring California weather summer posts could magically appear about stuff like that – Sundowner winds or the Oakland Fire, or ???

  • Thunderstorm

    Looking at alto cumulus heading NW into NE California. Dry lightning outbreak up north tomorrow?

  • Charlie B

    I am sitting In the Las Vegas airport awaiting my escape. It was 111Β°. The wife tweaked me all day by sending me pictures of her having fun in AlTahoe’s hood. So I went to Snowbrains to see what was happening down in the southern hemisphere. It is snowing down there. Question: does anybody know how to find reliable snowfall stats (averages) for resorts in South America, New Zealand and Australia?

  • Thunderstorm

    Wonder how long it will take for the NW service to issue a red flag warning for the Santa Barbara area?

  • thebigweasel
    • Thunderstorm

      Just watched video of the fire from youtube. Seems to be spotting ahead of the main line in numerous places. Stay safe!!

      • thebigweasel

        The bombers and helicopters spent the entire afternoon painting the seaward slopes in the region. Hopefully that will contain the hotspots.

    • Dan weather maniac (ORINDA)

      Wow crazy!!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Very serious fire conditions developing tonight.

    • weathergeek100

      Depressing

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • weathergeek100

    Slightly off topic, but I highly recommend watching the documentary ‘Chasing Coral’. It summarizes why (climate change, obviously) and how all the world’s coral reefs are dying at such an alarming rate. It’s pretty freaky.

    I heard about it from a friend and actually got interested after some posts here about how widespread the above normal SST anomalies are across the world. This causes their bleaching and ultimately, their death. It just came on Netflix.

    Sorry, from one depressing topic to the next. CA is burning and the corals are dying. Maybe someone has some good news around here for once!

    • Cap’n

      Now watch Plastic Ocean, that one will lift you from the doldrums.

    • BethElDoradoHills

      love the scientific programs on netflix’s channel – my granddaughter loves the bill nye saves the world show where he explains how there are 58+ genders

      • AntiochWx

        I’m not anti LGBT or anything, I fully support them. However it might because I’m lacking in scientific biology knowledge, but how can gender be on a spectrum? Isn’t gender purely XX or XY based on chromosomes? I always thought the multiple attributes associated with LGBT were sexuality based not gender. I don’t understand how there can be more than two genders from chromosomes. Please can you post a link so I can understand it better. I always though multiple gender was a social justice movement not scientific. Isn’t there a difference between gender and sexuality?

  • thebigweasel

    I’m happy to report that as of now (11pm) the sundowners have failed to materialize. I can see flames from here (they are about the size of a thumbnail at arms’ length).

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Todays sunset images from Maui. Had rain showers every night during our week over on the big island, but no rain yet on the Kahana coast so the absence of evening haze allows for much sharper pictures. This view is looking at Molokai from the 11th floor condo we’re renting. Breathtaking, and my gratitude for being able to be here is, at times, overwhelming…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/726ce928af8f7eb7a47ee30bb76f28dadab62ff42b442fab7b7be61fc32f93ce.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f205bed707797d388f3cd28a0fe5d1fea0474d7d96f74bc2e024ecbea4ce2915.jpg

    • Scott Turner

      Showers become more frequent north of Kapalua. West Maui Mountains block the trades from the Kahana area, but more moisture seems to sneak around the Kahakuloa side. Rainshadowing is powerful there.

      Amazing banana bread in Kahakuloa, btw. Worth a drive north. Nakalele Blowhole is worth a stop too.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Thanks for the tips Scott. We’ll check it out. Here till next Thursday.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Also since wunderground got bought out by weather channel I do not read a single article. I have better things to do then read that liberal trash propaganda they push.

    • mattzweck

      I just go to wunderground for the live weather stations. Data. Everything else is useless.

    • Rusty Rails

      Salty Cactus

      • Pfirman

        Prickly too.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      If I am not mistaken they’re all owned by IBM now, Comcast sold it last year.

    • thebigweasel

      That caught my curiosity, so I went and looked. The three main stories are:

      Formidable Category 4 Fernanda Rips across the Northeast Pacific
      First Half of 2017 Hottest on Record for Parts of U.S. Sunbelt
      Delaware-Sized Iceberg Detaches from the Larsen C Shelf
      I don’t see where any of those have any kind of political orientation.

      • matthew

        You can find politics wherever you look, if you really want to see it.

      • AntiochWx

        Because a lot of conservatives don’t like climate change. They associate it with a liberal conspiracy. Science is NOT a liberal conspiracy. Science is science, even if you don’t believe in it, that doesn’t stop it from happening.

    • WalkmanJG

      It’s a sad day when something like the freaking WEATHER CHANNEL is labeled as “liberal trash propaganda”… Just makes you wonder what the hell is wrong with some people…???

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      The only gripe I have w/ the Weather Channel is that they ignore conditions west of the Rocky Mts. We can be getting a decent winter storm or extreme low temps but the WC is more interested in possible Northeaster days in advance. Instead of covering a current hurricane like Eugene, the WC focused on minute early stage development off Africa last week.

      • mattzweck

        so glad have satellite can watch weathernation tv. way better than weather channel. actually talk about weather and accuweather app.

    • ben

      I cant tell if you are joking or that your innocence has been hijacked by the alt reich.

  • Craig Matthews

    Spectacular Sunrise over the northern Sacramento Valley this morning. This is looking west from Old Shasta across the Redding area. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5547767edde7a488304f368e8b0cdbad8d948091ae17c2e2f608cafe2c34248d.jpg

  • palmsprings

    Extremely humid this morning thanks to a surge of low-level moisture from the SE. Currently 95F with a 74F dew point, however not a cloud in sight.

    • Yikes.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      I have family in Coachella valley who suffer horribly each summer due to dew points. A fact Palm Springs Chamber of Commerce tries to avoid/ forget! lol

      • palmsprings

        Indeed. “Dry heat” is May/June, but from early July through late September, I’d say at least 50-60% of days could be classified as humid, meaning that dew points stay above 60F for the entire day.

    • weathergeek100

      Go to the desert, they say. It’s a “dry heat”, they say.

  • Peter Schiffman

    https://www.facebook.com/NWSSacramento/photos/a.175638055805544.30751.173938079308875/1438324549536882/?type=3&theater

    Been in Davis over 30 years. Qualitatively it feels like summers here have gotten hotter. Anyone here know where I can find on-line data sets (i.e. max and min daily temperature data for summer months over the past 10-20 years?)

    • Pfirman

      I’d say that graphic means it is quantitatively hotter too. Suffering nearby in Woodland.

      • Yolo Hoe

        The only benefit of moving here in 2013 is that my family never experienced how good it used to be

    • Thunderstorm

      NW service in Reno also says warmest ever so far with longest consecutive streak of days above 95F likely to fall this week.

    • Your question inspired the following Tweet. The short answer is yes:
      https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/886294726340562944

      • Pfirman

        No, not the nights. I can take hot days, but not hot nights. Lately what passes for the Delta breeze has been hot, not cool.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          Yeah, hot nights are difficult if I try to turn off AC at midnight due to high dew points down here

        • Tuolumne

          A dry 90 in the afternoon and 45 first thing in the morning was quite tolerable when I was in Idaho many years ago for a summer. That’s more continental than most of CA though it fits Alturas.

          • Pfirman

            Used to see that near Cloverdale, CA in the late fifties and early sixties when I spent summers on a ranch up Big Sulphur Creek. Doubt it’s like that now.

      • AntiochWx

        Yeah, but if you combine the two for average temperature for the day, you will see obvious warming since the 1930s. Also extend that graphic out to the 2000s and 2010s, it it becomes even more apparent. Even if there was not quantative proof for warming in California, we are just a small blip of warming global temp averages as a whole, ie more IMBYism that some people use to deny climate change.

      • weathergeek100

        Daniel, do you think that the minimum temperature rise has a little to do with the urban heat island effect? Obviously, global warming is to blame but I feel like the reason min temps have risen faster than max temps is due to the increase in concrete and asphalt throughout the valley the past 30 years.

  • matthew

    A couple pics from my aborted attempt at mt rose this morning. The north slope of tamarack was still buried. My phone died before I got to the deep stuff so this is it for the pics. Ended up turning around at the first 8′ drift. May try again in 2-3 weeks. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/499f5e8ba5120acd2d08e05a898f88f295d2ac8fbd89ad75316da34575d528ed.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ae5f58f07354fb69548f94ca01b2c4b3085b827b061bfd4ca71e24b71987fe7c.jpg

    • Cap’n

      The cord maiden and I are going to go for the Donner/Judah loop tomorrow morning if you guys feel like doing another hike.

      • matthew

        I may join you. The wife is out jetting around Europe with my daughter right now so it would be just me and the dogs. Do you think you can actually do the loop? I was assuming that it was still buried, being on the crest and all.

        I will reply later if I can make it.

        • Cap’n

          I’m pretty sure Donner Peak is doable. The loop including Judah is a long shot, but up and down Donner Peak is a nice little workout. Probably leave the dog at home, he roasts in this heat.

          • matthew

            What time are you thinking? I typically like to have the dogs off the trail before noon to avoid the heat.

          • Cap’n

            Right around 8, should be done well before noon. We’re taking a tank of a kayak given to us by a neighbor that looks like it is from World War 2 out onto the lake right now. Assuming we don’t capsize we’re good to go for tomorrow.

          • matthew

            My daughter (the one camping out here until she moves to Berkeley next month) reminded me that we are cycling tomorrow. Since I have not really seen her in 6 years, she wins.

            I will be an empty-nester again in mid-August. We can try to get in a hike later in the summer.

          • Cap’n

            Right on.

      • weathergeek100

        Nice! A few weeks ago at the end of the first major heat wave back in June, me and my gf hiked the PCT around Flora and Azalea lake. We had such a tough time finding the trail because of all the snow but we eventually got out to both lakes and it was gorgeous. I was planning on hiking up to Mt. Judah but we were very nervous about too much snow cover. It’s definitely going to snow before all of this melts.

        By the way, I went out on Donner lake for the first time. We kayaked for an hour and it was super beautiful. No snow there so it was a shock when we drove up to Donner summit to start our hike and found so much snow.

    • Craig Matthews

      So much weight to that snow it broke many of the small trees I see in your shot there. I noticed the same thing up in the Lassen/Shasta Pks last week. Avalanches took out large swaths of bigger trees as well. I remember the summer 2011 in the Sierra near Mather Pass, many trees down due to heavy snow and avalanches. Later this summer will be interesting up there too. thanks for the shots.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        The tree damage in 2011 was impressive even in lower elevations, in certain areas.

        • Craig Matthews

          Yeah now that you mention it, I remember both 2010 and ’11 had some unusual amounts of snow in the upper foothills above Grass Valley, and in the Belden Town area of HWY 70. I spent a few weeks cleaning up our cabin up near Scott Lake above Nevada city that June. It was nuts. The trees at 3000ft were not use to that kind of snow, and Ponderosa limbs down everywhere, including our cabin roof. The elevation of 2800-3500ft I recall seeing lots of damage. How did Susanville do those winters?

          • Admode (Susanville)

            That’s funny, the area in particular I was thinking about that really got hammered was a logging road going into ramsey bar from stirling city. (Belden area). We had to cut our way in because of all the down trees. The only thing that sticks out in my mind following that winter around susanville was that there was a bunch of the tops of trees snapped out because of the weight of ice and snow.

          • Tuolumne

            December 2010 was amazing. An acquaintance in the SLT area reported that the Caltrans avalanche
            cannons on the Meyers Grade were going off like she had never heard
            before. My wife and I went up to Crane Flat over New Year’s and the heavy, wet snow stuck to the trees was phenomenal. We loved it but we didn’t have to deal with the consequences.

      • matthew

        Yes, the forest is littered with downed trees. Both from avalanches and just the sheer weight and volume of the concrete-masquerading-as-snow that came down this year.

      • Cap’n

        The amount of downed trees is nuts, and they’re still coming down. But they’ve led to 3 1/2 cords or so of wood for me so far.

        • Craig Matthews

          That’s a lot of chopping for her….

          • Cap’n

            It’s been a good summer of stocking up on wood for the coming season. Pulled permits to cut which puts me at 3 1/2 cords of lodge pole for $15. I split a cord of that by hand, good workout for sure. She just watched and demanded smaller pieces on everything I did. Then our landlord threw in a cord of almond for renewing our lease which was pretty cool. Plus our neighbor and I bartered a half cord of oak. I got two more cords of oak coming next week for a sweet deal (the only wood I’m going to actually pay for), plus I still have multiple rounds of pine layin’ around. We shall be warm next winter!

            There’s is my wood autobiography. The cord maiden will write hers in fall after she stacks all of this.

          • Pfirman

            Make sure your chimney is clean after so much pine.

          • Pfirman

            Ha. I took that the wrong way, as in corded, or strongly connected. Don’t know how I missed the wood connection. Maybe it’s both.

    • annette johnson

      Nice to see snow pics as we are still baking here on the river! Sorry if this is a stupid question, but are those Weimaraner’s?

      • matthew

        Rhodesian Ridgeback’s.

        • matthew

          Oh, and you’ll likely be seeing snow pics until late-September. Cannot even get to the higher trails yet.

        • annette johnson

          Ok, that was my second thought. I thought they looked like they had a thicker build than a Weimaraner. Looks like they are good hiking buddies!

          • matthew

            The best! My wife used to run marathon’s. One of the reasons that we chose this breed was to provide her a running partner on her training runs, since it sure as hell was not going to be me! They can easily go 15-20 miles in the mountains at a decent pace, and are big enough (80 and 100 pounds for mine) to provide protection from both human and natural predators.

          • annette johnson

            I have a friend that had one years ago, and he still talks about him. He loved that dog. I lost my rottie to a blood disorder about a month ago and the whole family is still devastated. Been to the pound and have looked online, but nothing is popping out yet. Maybe it’s not time yet, but there is such an emptiness?

          • Pfirman

            Condolences. About to lose a ten year old Jack Russell to liver cancer. Other dog, a mutt, is doing well at sixteen. The JR is my buddy though.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Sorry to hear

          • annette johnson

            Thank you. Gosh it is so tough especially when you know they are sick. Knowing that they had a good life makes the passing a little more bearable, but I know what your going through.

          • Cap’n

            Sorry for your loss, such a bummer. Keep checking the pound, your new pup is out there. So many rescues looking for love.

          • annette johnson

            Thanks Cap’n. I know she/he is out there. Whoever comes into our lives will have some big shoes to fill, but they will most certainly be loved.

          • matthew

            After I lost my best buddy 15 years ago (had to put him down) I said “no more dogs”. My wife and kids got one anyway. Best therapy possible.

  • Tyler Price (Carmel Valley)

    It’s Hot today!! ? It’s gonna be a scorcher.. currently 84 degrees already in Carmel Valley with 90’s on the way these next couple days. High clouds streaming in from the south as well.. a far cry from yesterday’s cool temps and the cloudy conditions with temps in the 50’s and 60′ on the Monterey coast. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/432cb333323f2abe7b3d65be604b4d59d3cc3af6573511d2b6d5dc59bf92413a.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/52b2abcf26b0fb02e538d34b4e8446c07ef19d001fe635a2e848d66aa8d18e90.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0d35b01890230839cfd6bb971cc08dbc84d8bd729a2cb45c9682580dd828d5c7.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1ddc60289ddc39a15a0a4e4ed9654794ff6a11b11c35460a8a5aa9cc5dcd71f8.jpg