Powerful Friday storm in Southern California; Warm & wet atmospheric river to affect Oroville Dam watershed Monday

Filed in Uncategorized by on February 16, 2017 3,196 Comments

Quick overview of current meteorological context

Very heavy precipitation expected across Southern California on Friday and Northern California on Monday (including the Feather River watershed). NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com

California is currently experiencing one of its wettest winters on record. Precipitation has been especially remarkable across the Northern Sierra watersheds, where liquid equivalent (rain+melted snow) is presently above 200% of average. Widespread flooding has already occurred across Northern California in recent weeks, and supersaturated soils are now leading to slope failures (mudslides and landslides) across much of the state. In additional to the “typical” flooding of regional rivers and streams that one might expect with prolonged heavy precipitation, California’s vast water storage and conveyance infrastructure is starting to crack under the strain–in some cases, quite literally.

 

Ongoing situation at Oroville Dam; levees also under severe strain

Late last week, the ongoing situation at the Oroville Dam in Butte County escalated dramatically when water overtopping the “emergency spillway” started to cause major erosion on the steep hillslope directly beneath the structure. Emergency evacuation orders were issued on very short notice to hundreds of thousands of people living across a swath of the eastern Sacramento Valley from Oroville to Marysville and Yuba City due to fears that the top 30 feet of the structure might imminently collapse, causing destructive flash flooding for many miles downstream. Fortunately, it appears that potential catastrophe has been averted for the time being–dam operators were able to increase flows down the damaged primary spillway and reduce water levels sufficiently to stop overflow and halt erosion. Since that time, a frenzied repair effort has been underway to shore up the emergency spillway and minimize further erosion if it comes into use again. A major challenge remains, however: dam operations cannot release water at as high a rate as they would under normal circumstances, meaning that the Oroville Dam may once again fill to the brim if storm or snowmelt-related inflows become high enough at some point over the next few months.

Additionally, serious issues have started to arise in the vast levee system that protects much of the Central Valley and Delta region from flooding. So far, there have not been any major levee failures in California this winter. But if the current forecast holds, the levee system will be under more strain by early next week than it has been in many years–and certainly since the locally dramatic ground subsidence which has occurred as a result of groundwater losses during the multi-year California drought.

 

Strongest storm of season (and perhaps in years?) in Los Angeles region on Friday

Southern California will be located under strong upper-level diffluence due to position under favorable “left exit region” of the jet. (NCEP via tropicatidbits.com)

A powerful atmospheric river, with a moisture tap extending all the way back to Hawaii, will make landfall in Southern California on Friday. This storm will be squarely aimed at the transverse ranges of Southern California, and it is very likely that the higher elevations of Santa Barbara and Ventura counties will see extremely heavy precipitation on the order of 10+ inches on Friday/Saturday. A modest surface low is expected to develop just off the California coast on Friday, further strengthening the cold front and generating the potential for strong, locally damaging winds across all of Southern California. The combination of copious moisture and strong dynamics will mean that even areas away from the mountains will see heavy–perhaps very heavy–rainfall. Los Angeles County, in fact, could potentially see one of its wettest 24 hour periods on record (even downtown LA could exceed 4 inches, with much more in the foothills). The NWS points out this storm will likely be the strongest of the season in these regions, and perhaps in the past 10-20 years in some of the wettest spots.

There are still some significant inter-model differences regarding precipitation totals–the ECMWF is not as wet as the GFS, and some of the high-resolution models stall the front west of Los Angeles. But confidence is pretty high at the moment that very heavy rain and strong winds are likely across SoCal on Friday, especially from Los Angeles northward. Widespread urban flooding is likely, and potentially dangerous flash flooding will occur in/near the Transverse Ranges and near recent wildfire burn scars. Impacts will be amplified by storm timing–the peak rainfall is expected between 3-6 PM in Los Angeles, which should make for a nightmarish commute. A few thunderstorms are also possible along and behind the front, some of which could bring some strong winds down to the surface along with brief torrential rainfall. All in all, I do expect this will be a very high impact storm across much of California.

 

Potentially strong, warm & wet atmospheric river headed for Oroville Dam watershed

A warm, wet atmospheric rivers with subtropical origins will approach Northern California on Monday. (NCEP via UCSD)

Unfortunately, the forecast for the Feather River watershed upstream of the Oroville Dam has become somewhat more ominous over the past 24 hours. Instead of a series of moderate, cold, and relatively manageable storms as had originally been depicted by the models, a rather strong atmospheric river is now expected to develop and slowly move across Northern California on Monday. The GFS and ECMWF agree that this storm will tap into subtropical moisture, bringing a warm and moist airmass into the region. Mountain peaks in the vicinity of Oroville Dam are not as tall as those further south along the Sierra Nevada mountain chain, so it’s easier for warm storms to produce exclusively rain (as opposed to snow) in that part of the state. The Monday storm may indeed be warm enough for most/all of the precipitation in that watershed to fall as heavy rain, which is not good news for current mitigation operations at Oroville Dam. Recent forecasts show a high likelihood of greater than 10 inches of precipitation over the next 5 days, with parts of the basin expected to approach 15 inches over the next 7 days. It is unclear at this point exactly what impacts this expected heavy rainfall will have on dam operations, but it’s clear this is not the forecast that DWR officials and emergency managers were hoping for.

Long-range model forecasts are showing the potential for an active pattern to continue through late February. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

The warm/wet storm on Monday will likely cause problems elsewhere, as well. Rivers and streams all across NorCal will likely rise rapidly, and many will flood. Additional mudslides are likely; widespread and potentially prolonged road closures are possible. We have also now reached the point where levees along mainstem rivers in the Delta and Central Valley may start to experience more serious problems–something that will have to be watched carefully in the coming days.

As recently as yesterday, it appeared that Northern California might get another break from the rain during the last week of the month. Today’s model forecasts, however, show no such rest for the weary. So at the moment, it it unclear how long the current active storm pattern will persist.

I’ll continue to post real-time storm and Oroville Dam-related updates on Twitter.

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  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    we got vary good news for lake oroville and we got bad news for san Joaquin

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    315 AM PST Sat Feb 18 2017

    Attention then shifts rapidly to next approaching system. Atmospheric
    river with fairly impressive moisture plume will approach the coast
    by Sunday morning with a few showers popping up ahead of the system
    across the area. Main precipitation shield will then move in Sunday
    evening into Monday with widespread moderate to heavy rain and snow.
    PWAT values on the order of 1+ inches with return intervals in the
    5-10 year range. Precipitation will continue into early Tuesday.
    Latest model runs have shifted corridor of heaviest precipitation
    a bit south from yesterday when the highest amounts seemed focused on
    the Feather River Basin. Focus now seems to be around I-80 corridor
    and southward. This would further stress the Cosumnes and San Joaquin
    River basins

  • Phil(ontario)

    I would like to propose we start a WW glossary. Collection of terms specific to this blog. The first term I would like to submit is BIMBY: adj. bust in my back yard.
    This past storm was a BIMBY for me. Although it performed well in some areas, I got 50% of what was projected within the high resolution model window. Storm wasn’t the biggest in 6 years, more like the 3rd biggest,,,. In the last 30 days!

    • alanstorm

      Atmospheric Liver: what you get from drinking during AR events

      • Phil(ontario)

        Like it ??

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      There is no truth only perception. This is a 10 year storm for the coastal transverse range…

      It’s important to understand topography and at what direction/characteristics the system will be hitting your specific area. Plenty of data on this blog to interpret the realistic projections so you can curb expectations…hate to sound like a douche, but it’s worked out well for me…

      • Phil(ontario)

        True but I let the NWS figure that out for me. based on my skill set or lack there of, my storm expectations come from them. Model output predictions have been pretty spot on his year with the exception of this last storm.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I’ll add YASF.

      You’re all so flagged.

      • Crank Tango

        Thank you.

      • Phil(ontario)

        Don’t forget your SYP fog

        • RunningSprings6250

          Good call!

    • cthenn

      Weather Underground has made up their own term “Arkansas” event. They take the abbreviations from the NWS for atmospheric River and turn it into Arkansas. Also they capitalize GOES even if they are not talking about the satellites.

      • Skye H.

        like how Storm Master talks about how this storm will be like “NOAA Ark”?

  • Brentwood_NorCal
    • Jim

      Any idea specifically where that pic was taken ?

      • Bombillo1

        Maxwell is about 50 mi N of Sac, has a lot of I-5 frontage.

        • Jim

          I actually misread what he posted…I’m familiar with Maxwell…thanks !!

        • Crank Tango

          Yeah I’m wondering how 5 is doing?

          • sc100

            Flooded at that area. Check out the Weather West twitter page.

    • Bombillo1

      By Wed morning the roofs of these buildings will be submerged. You don’t want things to look like this BEFORE the AR event.

      • alanstorm

        I doubt that, Mr. B! That would be a major catastrophy for the entire Sac Valley at that level

        • Bombillo1

          Alan, I know you are among the most informed on these boards but I am curious why you feel that catastrophe is off the table. We are all approaching ’98 levels of precip only 2 weeks into Feb with all the relevant reservoirs madly releasing water with a renewed AR event bearing down. LR forecasting now waffling about the 2 week outlook. I am wondering how catastrophe is avoided!!

          • alanstorm

            Granted Monday’s storm will be a prolific rain producer, but it’s no ’97. That thing was a MONSTER. (image) It had every combination of ingredients for a flood catastrophy.
            Not saying there won’t be flooding (look at Maxwell!)
            I think the problems will be with saturated levees giving out. I hope not!
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/951e2732ee2023aa66eeac92b4108b803ac158d6ad647b0a9ca9b9c8965ad93b.gif

          • Bombillo1

            We just finished a 50 hour rain event about 2 hours ago. The Pit is flooding, The McCloud, the Upper Sac even mild mannered Fall River ( largest “spring” river in the US) just took out Spinner Falls Lodge. Redding is flooding from the maximum releases taking place out of Shasta that aren’t really netting any storage. Even obscure reservoirs (like Almanor) are trying to get rid of water. Another 6 or 7 inches from this next event will be gasoline on the BarBQue. Don’t give up your season tickets just yet!

          • alanstorm

            It will get ugly for sure!

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Thanks for that image Alan. I remember getting off the plane on New Years day, in ’97, coming from FL into SFO. Walked outside and couldn’t BELIEVE how humid and warm it was. It really was a hundred year storm.

          • alanstorm

            I was in Santa Cruz marveling at the radar loops they would show between commercials on TWC! (days of no internet).
            Covered 3/4 of the state & was SLOW moving. A bad combo

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Do you know what setup is required to achieve a storm like that. Was it all El Niño?

            I remember that storm vividly as we were trying to drive back from Tahoe on New Year’s Day. we left just in time as many of the roads were closed that afternoon.

          • alanstorm

            La Nina (same as ’64 flood),
            High off Alaska, undercutting low.
            Monster, true MAJOR pineapple Express flow with screaming zonal jet coming across from Asia.
            A large snowpack accumulated just prior to it, so when snow levels shot to 10,000 that brought the catastrophy to the valleys.
            The very wide frontal boundary stalled out (worst case scenario) with a bullseye on the Feather R watershed. Something like 40″ in a 9 day period!!
            These setups happen almost every year, but don’t always come to fruition.
            Other more educated posters on here could add to this

          • Tuolumne

            Not El Niño at all though it’s often blamed on it. El Niño began later that same year. Reporters and editors assume that the 1997-98 El Niño must be responsible for all flood events during those two years, as if El Niño turns on and off with the calendar rather than on its own terms.

          • alanstorm

            *half informed* by the way….

          • Jim

            Is that the same as half baked ?

          • Tuolumne

            To get that much more water depth would mean flooding far more land laterally. I’m not questioning that there will be more flooding, some caused by levee breaks, and that it could be pretty severe in some places. However, the more levees break the more the water spreads out laterally which limits its further rise.

            Also, note that the elevation at Maxwell is around 90 feet while the elevation at the Sacramento River is around 70 feet. I’ll bet the current flooding is due to local drainage rather than the river.

    • alanstorm

      That’s terrible! Levee break? Creek? What happened?

      • Brentwood_NorCal

        I think it was a creek overflowing.

        • Bombillo1

          Most commonly referred to as The Sacramento River.

          • Pfirman

            It is a good ways from the Sacramento River, on the west side of I-5, and near the Coast Range. It is, though, directly downstream from the proposed location of Sites Reservoir up in the hills to the west.

          • Bombillo1

            My thought is that it occupies the bottom land of the Sac Valley. The water table in Maxwel at this moment is essentially the Sac River elevation in that area. The Sac getting goosed any more translates to flooding issues there. BTW, the whole Yolo flood protection system is considerably South of them (Maxwell) and they are on their own.

          • Pfirman

            If you look at video of flooded I-5 you will see water is flowing away from Maxwell toward Sacramento River. Between them is Delevan Refuge.

            I would bet the highway itself impedes drainage and is a major cause of the flooding.

        • alanstorm

          Stone Corral Cr runs thru there, plus quite a few drainage canals

    • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

      looks like this one is pointed right at me this time around all so note that model have made a major shift too the S it was focused on
      the Feather River Basin. now its Focus now seems to be around I-80 corridor
      and southward. This would further stress the Cosumnes and San Joaquin
      River basins

      • Jim

        From the NWS Monterey….

        For the next system, the most important factor at play is the
        positioning of the precipitable water plume as it will determine
        which areas will see the heaviest rainfall as well as the amount
        of orographic enhancement/rain shadowing possible. Short term
        models are not currently in agreement with this exact positioning,
        despite the storm only begin about 36 hours out, thus lowering
        model confidence of specific positioning and rainfall amounts at
        this point. That said, on average, models appear to aim the bulk
        of initial moisture towards Big Sur, before shifting the plume
        northward towards the Santa Cruz mountains, then towards the North
        Bay, before shifting southwards once again over the Santa Cruz
        mountains. Given this trajectory, it seems plausible that the
        highest rainfall amounts will be over the Santa Cruz mountains
        through the duration of the event. Rainfall amounts will be
        highest over the coastal ranges, with 3-6 inches possible over
        elevated terrain, locally higher over the largest orographically
        favored peaks. Most valley locations can expect 1-2.5 inches, with
        locally higher amounts to around 3.5 inches in the North Bay
        valleys. Gusty southerly winds will accompany this storm as well,
        however, speeds will not be nearly as strong as with the last
        system. Pinpointing the rainfall timing and amounts of tomorrow`s
        system will be the forecast focus of the day. An areal flood watch
        for the entire forecast area will be issued shortly in
        anticipation of this system.

        • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

          yep looks like from Santa Cruz too my area and the San Joaquin seems too be the main point for this next event

          • RunningSprings6250

            I expect hourly updates.

          • Aloha12

            Hourly? Thinking by the minute.

          • Jim

            Lets shoot for every other day….

          • David Spyder Rosenthal

            It’s going to shift south and completely miss you. I have seen the models do this quite frequently.

          • Patrick from Stockton

            I wonder if Stockton will get rain shadow again? Actually I hope we do this time

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          The SC mountains don’t need any more. Hwy 17 is failing at a number of locations. Monday is going to be hellish for the commuters.

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Silver lining.. At least it’s a holiday for some.

          • Jim

            I agree…getting pretty ugly for sure

      • Bombillo1

        Those 2 drainages are within spitting distance of each other. I wouldn’t be placing any bets just yet.

      • TheNothing

        Yep, looks like you’re the only one in the state to get rain this time around.

  • Bombillo1

    Anyone, Annette, know the status of Lake Mead? Arguably more important to California than many of the reservoirs that we monitor here. The Colorado River drainage having a good year?

    • Tom

      I checked a week ago and it was about 150% of normal. They do get more spring/late spring precip than we do in CA so what happens then is important to runoff.

    • Allemanni

      Maybe not why…maybe will…

      • The best evidence right now suggests that the risk at Oroville is now drastically lower than at the height of the event, when it was believed there was a greater than 50% chance of failure within the hour.

        I think the biggest remaining risk may actually be the huge snowmelt pulse later in the spring, especially if we get some late-season storms that add to snowmelt. Right now, it looks like Oroville will weather Monday’s storm okay unless they have to shut off primary spillway for some reason. I’m actually more concerned about other dams and levees at the moment…unfortunately I expect some other pieces of infrastructure to break this week.

        • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

          agreed don pedro lake is near full right now and now with this next storm more S then N we could have some real issues with don pedro lake wish is more closer too home in my area there spill way could be used for the 1st time

          http://www.modbee.com/news/article133505849.html

          • Scap

            There spillway has been used before.

          • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

            not in years it has not

          • Pfirman

            So you meant ‘for the first time in years’. That first time was catastrophic.

          • Fish Farmer (Fresno)

            Yes, I believe it was 97, blew out road below. Had to make long detour to go fishing at the lake.

          • Jim

            Dont expect a “ooops I messed up”…I have yet to see that from him when he has “forecast” things that dont happen

          • S M is using alternative facts. 🙂 1997 both spillway and e-spillway used as you know and his article linked mentioned it.

        • Allemanni

          Great…I’ll hold off on the social/political commentary except to say that strange weather and years of competing funding priorities (not favoring infrastructure) may not be serving us well at the moment. And the beat goes on…

          • cthenn

            We’ve tried locally to get infrastructure funding recently, but the same groups who oppose taxes seem to always win out. So there’s 2 sides to every coin.

          • Boiio

            Definitely seeing a number of corrugated metal pipe drainage systems failing this winter. I can think of two systems above major roads in my area where the metal has completely failed and water has started to eat away into the hillside and undermine the roadway.

            Hate to say it, but the PG&E mentality on infrastructure in CA seems to be the M.O.: don’t fix it ’til it breaks!

        • sc100

          And the longer high water continues, the more “unexpected events” happen as well.

        • Allemanni

          Also – relative to that “snowmelt pulse” – that’s going to be an interesting event.

        • Scap

          What other dams are you thinking may have issues?

          • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

            don pedro lake wish is vary near full right now

        • Robin White

          Ignore science and its proven (if not universally popular) ability to predict outcomes and you condemn yourself (and a lot of other folks) to dealing with the fallout of entirely predictable and preventable emergencies. The “my roof never leaks until it rains” joke is not so funny any more. It’s become the unwritten law of the land, promulgated by the willfully ignorant. And as a direct result, some of us are going to get wet.

    • Tuolumne

      Amazing – the flood would extend out of the Feather River drainage, over the hydrologic divide (admittedly very low and flat), and into the Sacramento River drainage far upstream from the confluence with the Feather.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    new Melones Reservoir is at 991ft this AM wish is vary close too too 1,000ft this next event could get us at or over 1015ft or higher for the 1st time in a vary long time

  • BRP (Ventura)
    • PRCountyNative

      Jealous!

    • max

      So the southern entrance opened! That will wash out all the crap from that side of the estuary..Good news, except I wish a lot of that was going into the lake! Only up 4 % after 27 ” of rain this year..

      • BRP (Ventura)

        Yeah, WTF is with Casitas municapl? How does Cachuma increase 19% in one week with all this rain and Casitas increases only 4%? I learned this morning that cachuma water shed is 216 sq miles, where as Casitas is only 39 sq miles, so that’s a huge difference. Plus the Santa Ynez river flows unimpeded into Cachuma and Casitas has to have man turn a freaking gate valve to direct water to her…I honestly don’t know how we’re going to get the lake past 50% with the mentioned parameters in play…What say you?

        • Pfirman

          Why does such a tiny catchment need a gate valve? Doy.

    • David Spyder Rosenthal

      Was just checking that out. Chocolate bombs in front of the mouth. Star bar is back for sure

    • Mr Montana

      post storm bangers at drainpipes today. some 3x over head beasts for the brave. the paddle out was brutal. reef macintosh was making it look easy. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0bd1e7752d728495e1c23376473e167ba0f1375e196de6cb072277a453983e6c.jpg

      • Mr Montana
      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Ya drainpipes! Trancas creek must of been rollin out there. Setting up some all time sand bars for combo swell peaky fun…I remember back in the 1983 el nino the sand bar was a 1/4 mile out and when the first south swells came in that spring, there was a peeling left that held up long down to broad beach.

      • sectionmaker

        Nice…cement!!! Even in summer thats the serious drop….man,,, Buoys jumped from 10 to 20 ft in 3 hrs…max wave@ 40ft San Nicolas Island!! Old Biltmore pier area looked survivable up here in SB.

  • molbiol

    Good ensemble agreement on another block setting up next week. The big disagreement concerns the orientation of the block. A positive tilt would result in a dry mild pattern for Socal, due to retrogression of any cyclones back out to sea and subtropical ridging, whereas a Negative tilt would result in a colder wetter pattern with lower snow levels and even convection. The operational runs are waffling back and forth between those two scenarios

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/61771e69f75207318f76508c1ab0c178db15d85a9eb20e5ddbde9abcbe11012b.jpg

  • William_LeGro

    Totaled up at 2.76″ in central LA. A magnificent storm.

  • Boromir (Orcutt, CA)

    Light rain and wind still

  • sdmike

    Captured last night when the deluge hit. Not Photoshopped, and I was not aiming a garden hose down my rain collector. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bf18b34707db9ac7a15a0990a6250b0534bd3444108458ba1d555470e0eaf4b8.png

    • Jim

      That’s dumpage

      • sdmike

        Yeah, I expected over 1inch/hr, but I did not expect that!

    • weathergeek100

      Wow. I’m assuming this was for a brief time when that squall line went through. I remember the red on radar. Great storm!

      • sdmike

        Yeah, just for a half a minute or so. Then it fell back to 1.65.

  • Final: 3.5″ here with yesterday’s storm.

  • Charlie B

    February 18, 1952 (the year of the big snows):
    Another storm is headed for the valley that might bring rain. The storm over the weekend produced heavy snow that closed highway 50 over Echo Summit but Donner Pass remained open. Norden received 14″ and now has 194″ on the ground; Echo has 168″. Mt. Tamalpias reported 2″ of snow down to the 1800′ level. A rapidly approaching cold front from the north is expected to drop .5″ of rain in the valley while the foothills and mountains will receive 1.5″ mostly as snow above 2000′. High winds might cause blizzard conditions.
    On other news, the price tag for Folsom Dam increased $7m and now sits at $58m. Nippon (Japanese) newspaper reports as many as 200,000 illegitimate children have been fathered by Yankee servicemen since the end of WW2. Finally, in sports, LPGA golfer Babe Zaharias wins the “Weathervane Classic” by 5 strokes, pocketing the winner’s check of $750.

    • AlTahoe

      It’s crazy that all of the storms in 1952 started with 4K snow levels or lower snow even after extended breaks. This year everything starts at 7500′ or higher and drops to 6k’

      • Pfirman

        Not crazy. Read any of many laments by Cap’n about the speed of the ‘change’.

  • mattzweck
  • DelMarSD
    • weathergeek100

      I noticed that. These cells are interesting. They seem to be nearly stalled, and also seem to die out and reform within minutes. I hope these hold together nicely as you guys continue to march towards your seasonal average! What a cold front for you guys last night. WIDE rain band, seemed to have rained for hours on end and you guys reached the lower end of what was predicted. Must’ve been fun to watch that squall come in!

      • DelMarSD

        Hell, I’m already 2.6 inches above my seasonal average here, at 14.6 currently (average is 12). I received 2 inches from this latest storm (with more to come), so definitely was on the HIGHER end of predictions, not lower. The area between Pacific Beach and Solana Beach (including La Jolla and Del Mar) really got slammed by that squall line, so we got much higher totals than surrounding areas.

        • weathergeek100

          Yeah, I need to stop looking at Lindbergh Field…they’re only at 9″ for the season and seasonal avg there is 10.77. I don’t like that rain gauge.

          • DelMarSD

            We get way more than Lindbergh field. It’s not really a good representation of the area. Also, I’m not sure that the totals for Lindbergh Field are up to date.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Your area is hillier than Lindbergh Field and the hills along the coastline likely help with orographics to some extent. I wonder if Point Loma rain shadows Lindbergh somewhat, but not to the extent a higher mountain range would, though.

          • DelMarSD

            Yep, you’re right. The hills along the coast definitely help with orographic enhancement. I believe Lindbergh is partially rain shadowed by Point Loma as well. Also, it’s further south, and generally, the further south along the coast in SD county, the less rainfall.

          • weathergeek100

            Ah, I responded after you did. Yeah, I’m leaning more towards orographics being the reason.

          • Bombillo1

            Airports are almost universally low representatives of regional rainfall. By definition they must be located in the flattest area around providing as good (unobstructed) an approach and take off as possible. Redding airport is the poster child for this, almost 25% less rain than Downtown Redding. I would guess LAX and SFO and SACTO as well.

          • weathergeek100

            I’ve always thought of that. But do hills of a few hundred feet in height make that much of a difference? Maybe. It’s either the hills or there’s something wrong with the rain gauge because nearly every station reports more rain than Lindbergh. Also, Lindbergh is pretty far south but Del Mar isn’t THAT much further north.

          • DelMarSD

            Del Mar almost always gets more than Lindbergh. But the way the squall hit lats night was not uniform. Points in North Central SD county really go slammed harder than areas further north and south.

          • weathergeek100

            Yeah I saw that. The red stretched from La Jolla to South Carlsbad or so. NWS is reporting 1.98 in La Jolla….highest on their list (for coastal areas).

          • DelMarSD

            Yeah, and if you look on the radar, there’s a lot more coming. !

          • Bombillo1

            My avocado tree in Bird Rock might need a break soon.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    I would say the event underperformed a bit in the I.E. area, but in the bigger picture another great soaking for the south land! (Still was a great storm!)

  • weathergeek100

    Wow, a lot of catching up to do this morning on the blog, NWS, etc. Slept in until 10AM which is rare for me. Bay area got hit pretty hard yesterday and it seemed to have slightly overperformed. Strongest winds were in the south bay. I’m concerned about the Monday AR and the fact that they keep increasing precip amounts. I can’t believe we’re about to get another big storm with almost no chance of drying out. The AFD here is basically screaming at us right now with exclamation points, mentioning “widespread flooding” is likely. The Oroville situation comes to mind when I read this. Honestly, I don’t mind all of this rain (it’s way better than fires and drought!), but we need at LEAST a week break to dry out the soils a bit before the next storm and that hasn’t been happening.

    As far as SoCal goes, you guys also got hit hard yesterday though mostly the lower end of what was forecasted. Some places didn’t even reach what was forecast but did we really want 4″ of rain in downtown LA? LA has exceeded it’s seasonal average a while ago so the 2″ that actually fell was a great bonus (and 2″ of rain for LA metro in a 24 hour period is still A LOT of rain). San Diego just barely tipped the forecasted rain amounts with a solid 1-1.5″ across the county there. The winds seemed to have verified quite nicely. Surprisingly not many reports on the winds down there. A gust of 52 MPH was recorded at Lindbergh Field! This was at 4:51PM right as the rain band began to roll through:

    http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/mesowest/getobext.php?wfo=sgx&sid=KSAN&num=48

    The strongest wind gust I’ve ever seen here was a gust of 58 MPH in Jan 2005 so this was close. The wind was sustained at 31MPH. 1.09″ of rain was recorded afterwards…..CLASSIC strong winter storm. Very proud of my hometown:).

    What was very interesting was how rainfall amounts were about the same or lower in the mountains just east of San Diego. Can someone explain to my why that was? Orographics played a roll nicely in the San Bernardinos and I know that the south to southeast winds (vs southwest winds) don’t benefit the mountains in SD but I don’t understand why amounts were lower there. I know the forecast was for the highest amounts on the coast and that was because the low was forecasted to drop down the coast and into Baja but the rain band still moved through the entire county and out towards the deserts. Phoenix is getting it pretty good right now. Interesting.

    • RDLA

      At least here in the South Bay area of L.A. County, the rain totals weren’t nearly what the storm in mid-late January produced, however, the winds were VERY crazy here. Numerous downed trees in the area I live; had my eyes nervously glued to a huge city-owned pine tree directly upwind from my house that I’m officially going to put the city arborist on notice about.

    • The Bud Meister

      There was more rain in La Jolla (1.98 in) than on Palomar Mtn (1.31 in). How unusual is that????

    • Nathan

      Interesting, GFS shows further south.

    • Bombillo1

      Well, so much for the updated bullseye prediction of 3 hours ago showing this further south and no worries for Oroville, per Storm Master’s post. I would not let my finger get too far from the panic button re Oroville if the 13.6 inches verifies.

  • weathergeek100

    Very interesting! Check out where last night’s storm is now- the cold front is getting close to Cabo San Lucas!!! This is very rare. A couple more storms earlier this season also made it pretty far south on the peninsula. I wonder if there’s any green grass springing up in the Central Baja Peninsula these days.

    http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/west/weus/ft.jpg

    • weathergeek100

      For some reason this is showing an older satellite image…

  • RunningSprings6250

    Hhmmmm sudden hail and rain with increasing intensity turned to hail and snow… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4abc3ccbbf2d9ec19f14991361396965a66ff188cfe4dfca8bce3db7cff7c4f5.png

  • Cap’n

    Light snow all day on Donner Summit, not accumulating, just coming in sideways.

    Get ready Nor Cal. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cf1c074a3269b0309c8343babfa184190e6b083d88a1075288a385f7789e3efa.png

    • RunningSprings6250

      Looks like I need to eat myself out of a donut hole again!

  • weathergeek100

    Very interesting! Check out where last night’s storm is now- the cold
    front is getting close to Cabo San Lucas!!! This is very rare. A
    couple more storms earlier this season also made it pretty far south on
    the peninsula. I wonder if there’s any green grass springing up in the
    Central Baja Peninsula these days. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7fb6bb23b1ef709c749e31c1e1cf17b1799555952b924973f25cffaac83480dc.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Betting yes.

    • This would be a very high impact event for Bay Area, Sacramento region, and all major Sierra Nevada travel routes.

    • weathergeek100

      Wow. The quicksand in the bay area will remain quicksand until further notice. Not good news.

    • Charlie B

      There are 1100+ miles of levees in the delta alone, some dating back into the 1800’s, not to mention the vast levees on the Feather, Yuba, upper Sacramento, etc. I read that Sacramento itself is considered to be one of the most at risk cities in the US for levee failure floods. This will further stress all those structures, and with many delta tracts below sea level this could prove interesting (and will continue to be watched through spring run off season.)

      • Darin

        I was looking at some FEMA maps where I used to work (Natomas area north of Sacramento downtown. They are rated as depth of flooding for full infrastructure failure. I was shocked to learn I was sitting in an office in the 15-20 feet of underwater zone.

  • Shane Ritter

    Hey I was really close. End of January Prediction. I nailed the 2 big storm cycles. Predicted 190″ above 7k, and sugar bowl has 115″, with 50-60″ more slated to arrive. That’s not to shabby!

    My March Prediction? Lots of cold big storms. I think we see 3 big storm cycles, with at least 1 AR. Above 7k sees 175-250″ by the end if March. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d076504e8bbaf4766a45912c183547957a3263cd2cc0a3de1a5826254e7a902.png

    • RunningSprings6250

      We’ll have to get these Storm Master® approved.

      • Cap’n

        Norman!!!!

        • Bombillo1

          He’s working on some taxidermy right now, maybe mom.

    • I just spent the past two hours shoveling out some Sugary Bowels, up here at the Summit mother nature really has hovered over in a strained squat to dump as much wet stuff as possible on the mountains. Shoveled powder, cheesecake, then cement, and lots of it.

      • Crank Tango

        Sugary Bowels, huh?

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Bombillo1

      Where the heck is Nicolaus? Not too many High Rises there, I notice.

      • Jim

        Between Sac and Marysville

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Sokafriend

      This is as close to shouting and the use of all caps as it can be, before it is, which will by then will be too late to leave. . I hope it sinks in and residents pack up and go now and visitors stay away. It doesn’t take an 1860’s scenario to cause widespread atypical flooding at this point, given our reliance on collapsing roadways. failing water flow infrastructure and population levels.

      • Upslope

        I don’t know why anyone wastes their time responding to this clown. My WW experience has been dramatically more enjoyable since I blocked him.

        • Tuolumne

          Except that the person you blocked wrote exactly nothing! All he posted was an image containing a text warning from the NWS. The NWS warning is what Sokafriend was responding to. Joke’s on you.

  • Boromir
  • Bartshe
    • Cap’n

      I’ll be on Dana in June. Thanks for sharing.

      • Bartshe

        Bring your sticks or sled.

        • Cap’n

          That’s the plan.

    • Bombillo1

      If those guys get a warm rain any time soon Lee Vining is hosed. Look at those canyons all pointing there. I don’t think there is much of a work around either, 395 could get ligated right there.

      • Bartshe

        There are avalanche chutes above Hwy 395 and Lee Vining, but not from Mt Dana. Last time any decent-sized slides came close was 2011.

        Much greater proportion of rain below 8500′ this year, so not much of a problem with snow.

        • Tuolumne

          I’ve noticed those chutes before. Have any avalanches actually gotten into the edge of town during extreme avalanche years?

          • Bartshe

            Edge, yes. But around 50-100m away isn’t too edgy unless you are the closest house.

          • Tuolumne

            Thanks! Not that I was really planning on living there, but I was curious.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Not many details but a reported avalanche with three people possibly trapped at the Tahoe Donner XC center, Truckee fire/PD on scene working with ski patrol. Asking for Tahoe Nordic search and rescue to respond. Sounds to be in the upper area near the top of Tahoe Donner.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      I know we’ve had really wet ARs this year already. But is this the first time that we have seen red on this map over the Bay Area this year.

    • Cap’n

      Hey Daniel, any guestimate on snow levels? Again NOAA is all over the place with anywhere from 6-8K. Big difference in flooding concerns depending on snow levels. For what it’s worth, which isn’t much, WeatherDotWrong is showing heavy snow for Truckee with almost all snow, upwards of 2+ feet. I’m not buying that at all, but I am wondering if there is something showing up that would even show lower levels? Thanks.

      • Looks like a pretty warm storm at its peak on Monday, but will start relatively cold and end relatively cold. Unfortunately, it does appear bulk of precip will be rain below 7500-8000 feet, though subsequent storms look colder.

        • Cap’n

          Thanks for the reply, that’s pretty much I’ve been thinking as well. It always blows my mind the discrepancies in forecasts from different outlets.

    • max

      Daniel. Next week. What is the expectation for upper slopes of SlO, SB , and Ventura counties? Our reservoirs are desperate, despite the recent inflows. Thx.

      ..

  • CHeden

    Just back from a quick visit to the Lower Sacramento. The flooding is now the most I’ve seen in the 13 years since moving here. The flooding situation is very bad from Red Buff on down. In addition to Maxwell being mostly underwater, portions of Red Bluff, Corning, Orland and Willows are all reporting issues. Up here on the main river below Cottonwood Creek, the river looks like it just crested, as the water marks in the parking lot are about 1-2″ lower than earlier.
    Really hoping the ol’ rainshadow effect kicks in full-tilt for the next system(s), or else there will even more extensive flooding next week.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5568fb3cf6ac0d1a1f5fb72299f1630d065d9dda180adcdf286618ceaa7d6c14.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/799dc4a6aec7e4e77358a70578fbce5e05c6260280e5ee0fc6217c64b33dfb6c.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      CHeden! Those places are not flooded because of the local rainfall man! I have been screaming about this for days, look at what is happening in the mountains!!

      • Tuolumne

        Red Bluff is on the river so no surprise there.

        Corning is at 273′ elevation (even higher at the *east* edge of town) while the nearby Sacramento River is normally at 164′. Current stage at the nearest river station (Vina Bridge, a bit upstream) is 188.2′. This town is not being flooded by the Sacramento River!

        Orland is at 257′ while the river is at 146′. The nearest river station is Hamilton City which is currently at 148.7. Orland is probably getting flooded by Stony Creek which runs right past town. That creek is one of the major tributaries on the west side of the valley, draining a very large (if obscure to most folks) area of foothills and pretty high mountains in the inner North Coast Ranges.

        Willows is at 140′ while the river is at 76′. The nearest river stations are at Ord Ferry (currently 115.6′) somewhat upstream and Butte City (currently 89.7) somewhat downstream.

        I already covered Williams in an earlier comment below.

        Topography matters, folks. With the exception of Red Bluff, these towns are not being flooded by the Sacramento River. Now in the days before Shasta, and during an 1861-62 event, I wouldn’t be *quite* so sure. But that’s not where we are right now.

        If you’re going to claim that the water in the river is 70 feet above
        normal level you’d better provide better documentation than just emotion
        and supposition. Better check the river stage data, too.

      • CHeden

        Wasn’t sure what you meant until I re-read my post. Seems like I did a poor job of delineating the various flooding causations.
        Let me clarify:
        The high water in these pics are the result of outflows from Keswick Dam+Cow Creek and Cottonwood Creek+ over 2″ of local rainfall. Given that I’ve been monitoring this same spot for days now, it clearly spiked big-time overnight…but I agree, the lower Sac is not the only reason for the various flooding events further down the Valley….especially north and around Red Bluff where river flooding is the major contributor.
        Late last night and early this morning there was a prolonged rain period just west of Orland to Williams when the ejecting low stalled overhead and just dumped yellows for a few hours solid (which I posted about at 2 a.m. this morning, BTW).
        NWS precip ground reports showed over 3.5-4″ of rain may have fallen just east of the hills west of Williams/Maxwell/Willows in a 24hr. period..with the bulk falling in a 4-5 hr. period. So, there was indeed a major downpour that’s contributing to the flooding down there….and like someone posted earlier, I-5 is probably hurting the drainage of the flood waters to the east.

        • Tuolumne

          Thanks for the clarification!

        • Sokafriend

          Thank you.

      • CHeden

        The flooding west of I-5 was from local rainfall. See my post from 2 a.m. this morning with the radar image.
        The immediate area got 3.5 – 4″ in less than 6 hrs.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Far less rain then I thought fell in the bucket. Only 1.90 from the storm.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Still a wonderful amount though!

    • Whittier weather dude

      2.36 in my part of Whittier

  • Charlie B

    On January 5, 2008, a heavy storm hit the Sierra and Western Nevada. This resulted in a rapid rise in the Truckee River. About 20 miles east of Reno on the Truckee there is the Derby diversion dam. That dam is part of the “Newlands Project”, which was the first large reclamation project built by the BOR back in 1905. The project diverts water from the Truckee River about 30 miles over to Lahontan Reservoir by way of the Truckee Canal. The water is then used by Fallon area farmers. The Newland project is run by an agency called the “Truckee Carson Irrigation District (TCID).”
    When TCID water masters saw the slug of water headed down the Truckee in the early morning of January 5, they took action. Wanting to capture as much water as possible, they opened up the Derby gates to allow more water into the Truckee Canal. Flow rates jumped up from about 200 cfs to 900 cfs in a matter of a few hours (capacity in the canal, which had been built by hand and horse drawn equipment with a history of breaches ever 15 years or so, was around 1000 cfs.) At about 5 am, the canal levee gave way in the City of Fernley, and the resulting flood inundated about 600 homes with up to 8′ of water.
    The cause of the breach was never identified, since the evidence was washed away. The general consensus was that it was a combination of poor maintenance, rapid water rises and rodent holes that caused the structure to fail.
    The event spawned a dozen or more lawsuits and many years of litigation. Most parties settled, but TCID was the “last man standing.” They backed out of a $10m settlement, ended up losing on a liability trial and finally settling for $18m. (The damages greatly exceeded the sum total of the settlements…the lawyers did quite well, though). In the process TCID had to sell their interest in Donner Lake water, which was substantial.
    I fear for the levees over in Sacramento valley and delta…the failure consequences are enormous.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    18z is ending February with a bang for SoCal. Glad my concerns in late January of a dry Feb did not happen. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6568ee0cef17a11ba624ad95283b3da4ff34d8a4a8b176dbcc3fc3fb30f17422.gif

  • Canyon Country

    I think I can say the storm was not a bust in Canyon Country. We received 4.46″ yesterday. Such a relief to have copious amounts of rain this year after suffering through the last 6 years!

    • Shecky

      Yeah, I’ve got a friends that live at the end of Iron Cyn, brother in law lives in McMillan Ranch (back of his property is the wash)and another that owns Rancho Deluxe (Sand Canyon and Placerita that wouldn’t argue with you, they’ve seen enough.

  • matthew

    Looking at the 18Z GFS…it looks like my ‘hood over on the rain-shadowed banana-belt east side of Truckee will get around 4-5″ of precip, with about half of that as snow, half as rain. If this comes in just a little bit warmer and that is all rain then Reno is in for another bad day on Tuesday.

    And it looks like the west slope will be getting 2X+ of the amount we see here. This is not a good time to be living next to a levee.

  • Fairweathercactus

    January 2010 storm was far more impressive in my book. We got lightning and hail and far more rainfall.

    • Microbursts

      You got hair ??? That’s one heck of storm!! ?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I’d agree, if there’s a storm that can grow hair…I think that’d make someone A LOT of money..

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      That was a much more radical event, we had about 5 days of storms. Can’t even compare them…

    • Boromir

      Sucks for you

    • max

      As the Realtors like to say…Location, Location , Location

  • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)
    • RunningSprings6250

      LA to the bay… ?

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Represent the yay area…

      • Pfirman

        Edgy.

    • Dan weather maniac

      40inches now in Orinda this year (avg 30).That’s a typical amount for a Santa Cruz mts year. It’s seems statewide we are already 10% to 40% or more over the seasonal averages, with 2 months to go still.

      What if April finishes like October started? Seems like the whole state will be in a top 5 or 10 wettest ever year.

      I’m not looking forward to another 5ish inches over the next several days.

      • Chris

        We just topped 40″ in Morgan Hill too! Crazy Crazy!

    • jstrahl

      WOW, rarely do you see such a bullseye over the Bay Area!

      • Patrick from Stockton

        Looks like Stockton is right in there too. I wonder how this AR will affect the valley floor this time? Typically we get light rain or rain shadow

        • jstrahl

          A farmer i know near Stockton, in Linden (comes to the Berkeley Farmers’ Market) said a nearby levee failed yesterday, lots of levees are stressed to the limit, but he’s really worried about some dams not holding.

  • Forsyth Shizzle
    • benSoCal

      Thanks for sharing. lived on a couple places on dp back in the late nineties, wonder if the deck is left on one of them on the 6700 block

    • max

      More danger done be UCSB parties than weather
      .!

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Would love to hear the experts views and predictions for this upcoming storm. I keep hearing it’s an AR, but that’s a general term. Is it a strong AR, will it have Dynamics, will there be thunderstorms after the from. Is it a fast mover a slow mover ect.

    • matthew

      The magic 8 ball says : “Ask again on Wednesday”

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Good point. I shouldn’t say what will happen but I love predictions

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          I partly ask because if you went off Twitter you would think we’re all going to get 10 inches of rain.

          • Cap’n

            Just plan on 2-3″, not a chance in hell youre getting 10″.

          • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

            Of course not here. Just referring to NWS bay area notices that seem extra scary.

          • Pfirman

            Baiting the gods. Dude. Probably safe because I think they dried up and blew away a while ago.

            Maybe ended up somewhere close I’m hoping. Some woodshed would probably suffice.

          • jstrahl

            10 inches was for mountain locations.

        • matthew

          Smart assery aside…everything I have seen for the past few days says areas north of Monterey bay are in for a serious soaking. The rain-favored areas of the SC Mountains, North Bay, and West slope of the Sierra look like they could see 5-10″ by Tuesday.

          The Sierra along 80 is an absolute soggy mess right now. I have been driving regularly to Reno to tend to a sick relative and the area between Truckee and Reno (i.e. the “dry” side of the hill) are dropping rocks and oozing mud. Another 3-5″ on top of that mess will likely close the highway in that direction too.

      • Chris

        You’re a grade AA Smart Ass!
        …… just like me ?

    • Jim

      Daniel gave a twitter update earlier today…said a slow mover

  • Shecky

    Just getting some work done around here and checked the bucket, dogs have drank out of it and it still has 2″ in it since yesterday morning. Tehachapi

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Dan weather maniac

      I’m driving over it on the 120 tomorrow, will try to get a pic or two

      • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

        thanks am looking for word too that since i all most never get a ch too go over and check it out so i would love too see how high it is now all so please note that don pedro bridge is under road work right now so its down too one lane

        • Dan weather maniac

          Yaaasss we drove over that roadwork yesterday on our way up..,, kids said be careful not to fall off the rickety bridge.

          It wasn’t march fun.

          • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

            how the lake how full was it when you drove over

          • Dan weather maniac

            Looked full, I didn’t notice the normal bathtub ring I’m used to seeing in our reservoirs.

            But the rickety bridge captured my main focus.

            I’ll get some pictures tomorrow to show

          • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

            thanks

  • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

    Nice rainbow waterfall combo just now on my way home. It’s magical up here right now… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e836eaf2a335480dc2b8002cb78b1f525fca593b7092bcdfdf2e656e06ea2d05.jpg

    • sectionmaker

      The ocean is “interesting” as well….East Beach? who knew!!!

    • Wet Line(San Diego)

      Beautiful!

    • max

      Where in SB? I am starting to see the mustard blowing up all over the place in our area. With no sun and warming..

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • Yolo Hoe

      Yep — we’re heading down the slope tomorrow afternoon — the satellite imagery is intense as the fetch is taking shape

      • Sokafriend

        I don’t understand why more folks aren’t getting away.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Indeed — rule #1 is don’t mess with the Sierra in blizzard conditions — a fool’s game

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I debated but looks like I’ll hang until Tues at this point. Biggest worry is the slide at Baxter and if i causes more issues.

  • Craig Matthews

    Had a close call yesterday with the flooding, as a debris jam occurred just upstream. Fortunately this jamming/damming did not break and all is ok so far. This jamming/damming of debris in local creeks and rivers is now becoming a problem in the local area due to the continuous heavy rains as of late after 5 years of severe drought, wildfires, and the overgrowth in streambeds(due to lack of natural flood “cleansing” in last 18 years) . If we continue to get more wet storms the rest of this season this will become a greater problem in many areas. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e0b19058cb64dbf79f58d8c810a601351e476085a2374f27e81bb46b5b721f21.jpg

  • Shecky

    Showers on and off at the higher elevations with some snow mixed in. Looks like it’s trying to work up some energy right now with the temps dropping as the sun is going down at 42*. Tehachapi https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8923fc3bf364082891cf8e1336abaaa9b7a1b658e4c09da5be1ed013c2d2853e.jpg

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    Flood Warning
    National Weather Service UNLOCALIZED SITE
    358 PM PST SAT FEB 18 2017

    CAC003-005-007-009-011-017-021-033-035-057-061-063-067-077-089-091-
    095-099-101-103-109-113-115-240000-
    /O.NEW.KSTO.FA.W.0011.170218T2358Z-170224T0000Z/
    /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    Colusa CA-Yolo CA-Sutter CA-Solano CA-Plumas CA-Alpine CA-Placer CA-
    Shasta CA-Lassen CA-Amador CA-Tuolumne CA-Sacramento CA-Lake CA-
    Stanislaus CA-San Joaquin CA-El Dorado CA-Calaveras CA-Tehama CA-
    Butte CA-Glenn CA-Sierra CA-Yuba CA-Nevada CA-
    358 PM PST SAT FEB 18 2017

    The National Weather Service in UNLOCALIZED SITE has issued a

    * Flood Warning for Urban Areas and Small Streams in…
    Colusa County in central California…
    Yolo County in central California…
    Sutter County in central California…
    Solano County in central California…
    Plumas County in northern California…
    Alpine County in northern California…
    Placer County in central California…
    Shasta County in northern California…
    Lassen County in northern California…
    Amador County in northern California…
    Tuolumne County in northern California…
    Sacramento County in central California…
    Lake County in central California…
    Stanislaus County in central California…
    San Joaquin County in central California…
    El Dorado County in northern California…
    Calaveras County in northern California…
    Tehama County in northern California…
    Butte County in northern California…
    Glenn County in central California…
    Sierra County in northern California…
    Yuba County in central California…
    Nevada County in northern California…

    * Until 400 PM PST Thursday

    * Interior Northern California will experience another significant
    uptick in flooding problems starting late Sunday Night and
    continuing through Monday Night as an intense Atmospheric River
    type storm arrives.

    * Our entire region has saturated soils and many flooded areas
    already…this will enhance the impact of additional heavy rains.

    * Additional stress will be placed on levees, rivers, creeks, and
    streams.

    * We may see flooding in locations which haven`t been impacted in
    many years.

    * We are strongly advising all residents in interior Northern
    California to be prepared for flooding.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    Be prepared to evacuate if flooding should affect your area. Gather
    a “go bag” with important items like medications and hard to replace
    documents. Don`t forget to plan for your pets and animals.

    Please never drive across flooded waters…especially flowing water.
    Most people who are killed or injured during floods are attempting
    to drive through flooded waters.

    &&

    • Sokafriend

      If I was in one of any number of those locations I would grab my go bag and head out now.

      • Pfirman

        First thought is that is almost half ot the 58 counties in the entire state. Next thought is they are all upstate. Next thought is I was glad to see some wiggle room on the local threat, Cache Creek, on a bike ride today.

        It would be an exercise in futility to review headlines about floods over the decades and see virtually the same victimized areas over time. It is time for the drought victims to step aside I guess, and some experienced and inexperienced flood survivors to step up and tell the state the state we are in is untenable.

        • Tuolumne

          People don’t want to give up their floodplain houses and farms. The risk always seems distant (or just government hype) until it’s right in your face *today*.

          Buying out all the floodplains would bankrupt the government and the taxpayers, but the taxpayers need to keep on rebuilding public infrastructure in floodplains when it’s damaged by floods, over and over.

          Building flood protections against the really huge floods doesn’t pass the economic test in most locations. And the higher you build the levees, the worse the consequences (including life-safety risk) when a flood finally comes along that’s big enough to break them.

          Maybe an 1861-62 flood would bust us out of that political gridlock. Maybe not.

          • Pfirman

            We are on the same sandbagged page.

          • Pfirman

            Political levees are the worst.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I don’t think I have ever seen “The National Weather Service in UNLOCALIZED SITE” before. I wonder why the NWS office here wasn’t named as they usually are on their products.

      I am assuming this was probably issued by the Sacramento office.

  • Boromir

    This will be the 2nd day in a row without any sun!

    • AlTahoe

      Since January 1st, I think I have counted 3 cloudless sunny days here in South Lake Tahoe. We could have had 3 more but we’re socked in with fog on those ones.

      • scott

        And further south when the sun was shining the winds were nuts and put lifts on hold.

  • Boromir

    Well it looks like it could rain next Saturday. So much for that break

    • RunningSprings6250

      One day rule applies.

      All you need is one day break with rain.

  • Bill Moore

    cachuma up to 35% full and still rising

    • hermit crab

      I want the world to know! ??????

  • CHeden
    • I’d love to read her weather synopsis, too.

      • CHeden

        Lol!!! Careful, now.
        Debbie Downer alert all the way.
        But then again, she’s been tagging along for over 48 yrs, so she should know!
        Seen too many failed forecasts I guess?

        • Pfirman

          Is this a Viagra ad?

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    If this was posted already I apologize. Here is a nice landslide caught on film at Forest Falls in the San Bernardino mountains. What an amazing sight!

    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=U0tJO0IUcqU

    • Ice-nine (Suisun City)

      appropriate name for the area…

  • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

    Any update on Tahoe Donner avalanche situation I was there just yesterday on the top and their was deep powder.

    • Jim

      I saw a update below that said they dont believe there are any victims trapped but wanted dogs to search to make sure

      • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

        Where exactly on the mountain

        • Jim

          You might want to scroll down a little ways…I dont remeber where…

          • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

            XC center, what is that?

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      It was at the cross country(XC)/adventure center. Reported 3 were caught in it but were able to be dug out. Sounded like it was up the mountain. NCSO, Truckee PD, and Truckee searched the area with TD personnel and found no tracks to suggest more could be trapped. TD does have a dog at the downhill area but they don’t work every day.

  • Thunderstorm

    The rains will continue until the extreme temperature differential in the northern Pacific Ocean lessens. Coming back the week after this will be the same setup we’ve seen before. Cold air from Canada moving west over the gulf of Alaska and warmer air to the south moving east.

    • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

      When do u expect that to change or when do the experts?

      • Thunderstorm

        Do not know. Developing drought in northern Mexico could possibly affect spring time weather here in California as I speculate that the temperatures will be above normal there. Only a hunch this will bring windy weather here as northern pacific ocean remains colder then normal.

    • sectionmaker

      sounds good!

  • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

    My weather station in the Bay Area could challenge our all time rainfall in 24 hours which is 5 in. I expect 5-7 inches from the storm because of my elevation and with 3.2 inches forecast in the flats so I expect possibly 4-5 inches on Mon

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    we could be looking at some in we have not seen here in years and years this may be the strongest AR event by far

    https://twitter.com/TurlockID/status/833016137948422144

    • saw1979

      We took a drive up to Don Pedro today, it’s just about up to the brim already!

      • SloTruckeeJohn

        Photos?

        • saw1979

          Sorry, left my phone at home!

  • Yolo Hoe

    So just wondering, when does this year start to approach 1861-2? Seems like the precipitation we’ve had in NorCal would certainly result in some kind of substantial ‘lake’ in and around Sacramento.

    • Charlie B

      SF received 49″ and Sacramento 35″. Reports had Sonora, where storm master lives, received 102″. As Daniel has mentioned, if that happened again it would overwhelm just about everything.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thanks — that is very sobering indeed given what we are now witnessing. The utter bludgeoning that folks like Alanstorm and Bombillo are enduring seems epic.

      • Stereolab

        And apparently in 1605 there was an even bigger flood, 50% more rain than 1861, judging from sedimentary deposits. Imagine that…

    • alanstorm

      From what’s been recorded of 1862 are tales of Arctic outbreaks, (“snowfall to the valley floor”) following by long duration subtropical rains, I don’t think we’re close. The benchmark for river stages, even in Oregon (with the exception of the Eel R in ’64) belong to Jan 1862.
      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

    • whisperingsage

      I saw some video of some substantial lake around Sacramento

      • weatherhead

        Don’t think they were recording videos back in1862

    • sezwhom

      Great Flood of 1862 was the largest flood in the recorded history of Oregon, Nevada, and California, occurring from December 1861 to January 1862. It was preceded by weeks of continuous rains and snows in the very high elevations that began in Oregon in November 1861 and continued into January 1862. This was followed by a record amount of rain from January 9–12…then capped by a warm intense storm that melted the high snow load.

      Read the “Background”. Not a El Nino. More AR event.

      https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Flood_of_1862

    • Tuolumne

      Not even close. This winter resembles to a greater or lesser degree 1982-83 and 1997-98 which are not even in the ballpark of 1861-62. Of course there is always the possibility that we could get a new gigantic series of ARs that puts us into 1861-62 territory. The odds are against that during any one winter but it’ll happen someday.

      • Cap’n

        Wow not even close!? That must have been one helluvah winter. Do you happen to know, or are there recorded rain totals for locations that year? We already have spots over 100″ of rain this year, I’m wondering if there were totals over 150-200″ that winter.

        • Tuolumne

          Problem is that there were few places recording rain in those days, and maybe not any at moderate or higher elevations. Sonora is supposed to have gotten 100″ in January alone but I have to wonder about that one. San Francisco got 24″ in January and 49″ for the winter, and that’s probably reliable.

          150-200″ for the winter? I’d be inclined to think that happened in favorable spots in the mountains.

          • Cap’n

            Yeah the high totals I meant for mountain areas, which would have created tremendous snow melt/run off. Being that we still have another solid month and a half of the rainy season left, and a big storm on our doorstep, it’s exciting to see what, if any, kind of records we can break this year. Unfortunately there will be people who suffer, but I guess we can’t chose how we exit a drought.

  • Rio Rat
    • Forsyth Shizzle

      I don’t like the look of that cliff.

    • whisperingsage

      Yup that cliff is scary. Any pics of Capitola? They have a bunch of scary cliffs too

    • sezwhom

      Wait until Monday night. WPC slaps 7+” over Santa Cruz Mts.

      • Rio Rat

        Jan 83 took out half the houses along beach drive, I’ve been watching this situation closely, the s..i hits the fan most likely with this next storm.

      • Tangocity

        Any truth to the rumor that they are going to ask residents to start taking 20 minute showers to lower the water levels in the reservoirs?

    • Jim

      Walk that stretch 3 days a week with a walking group…a lot of that hillside came down at once it appeared…looked like a lot more going to come down. Theres a house up on the cliff with a large overhanging deck. The right hand side support for the deck has almost no soil under it….its left of this pic

  • RunningSprings6250
    • rainingonmycactus

      That’s the first time I’ve seen it with water.

  • Chris

    I have a few comments and then a question that I hope the “real” meteorologists could shed some light on (amateur opinions welcome too!)

    During last year’s El Niño, one of the reasons it did not perform was the lack of the “bulge” of warm water heading south along the South American coast (aka medoki El Niño)
    One meteorologist noted that the convection in the ICZ was unusually far north so the subtropical high was unusually far north.
    If you look at the SST anomaly pic, you can see the unusually cool water in the N Pacific and the warm water just south of that which is believed to be a player in this year’s very wet winter pattern.
    I’ve also noticed the “coastal El Niño ” off the South American coast now as well as much of the South Pacific.
    Is it possible that this has caused the jet stream and the trade winds to be situation further south than usual? Or at least the very warm water off the South American coast?
    Do we have other years where we’ve seen simular SST anamolies where the west coast has been drenched?
    I’m curious about the winter of 1981-82 where we had heavy precip from October-April where there was no El Niño. Was the water off the SA coast warm then too?

  • click

    Some surprise showers this afternoon, not a lot but enough to get the roads muddy.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c529d44b2fb99ac2997d1bc434da2d5bec76e3ec6e2f3322fd14fd8f13e6f1c7.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      Between the rain snow and hail we had an additional .25″ today- but no awesome rainbows!! Gorgeous!!

    • whisperingsage

      Oooooooooooo

    • CHeden

      The silhouette of a skinny dude praying to the weather gods is a nice touch.

  • Chris

    I have a few comments and then a question that I hope the “real” meteorologists could shed some light on (amateur opinions welcome too!)

    During last year’s El Niño, one of the reasons it did not perform was the lack of the “bulge” of warm water heading south along the South American coast (aka medoki El Niño)
    One meteorologist noted that the convection in the ICZ was unusually far north so the subtropical high was unusually far north.
    If you look at the SST anomaly pic, you can see the unusually cool water in the N Pacific and the warm water just south of that which is believed to be a player in this year’s very wet winter pattern.
    I’ve also noticed the “coastal El Niño ” off the South American coast now as well as much of the South Pacific.
    Is it possible that this has caused the jet stream and the trade winds to be situation further south than usual? Or at least the very warm water off the South American coast?
    Do we have other years where we’ve seen simular SST anamolies where the west coast has been drenched?
    I’m curious about the winter of 1981-82 where we had heavy precip from October-April where there was no El Niño. Was the water off the SA coast warm then too? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6a929983189517d4a2998d184e5928a76bf0d92876d96c00f9fb2bc269511b7.png

    • Cap’n

      Careful, the definition of a “real meteorologist” around here is a person with a laptop and internet to access Tropical Tidbits.

      • Charlie B

        Comment of the day nomination.

        • CHeden

          I second that emotion.

          • RunningSprings6250

            It’s poetry in motion.

      • Boiio

        Word

      • Cachuma Abedin

        00Z GFS showing a 980mb NAM-4K at HR384 with a double-low bombohyundaigenesis with PRECIP rates approaching CNRFC Maxloop values…watch out NorCal!

        • DelMarSD

          Love the username, LoL.

      • I thought is was someone who uploaded from their smartphone

        • Cap’n

          No, that’s a “real photographer,” someone who uploads shots taken from an old iPhone like I’m doing above.

    • 1981-82 DJFM SST pattern was not like what we have this year.

      We followed a super El Nino with a weak La Nina ‘modoki’ style pattern.
      Similar in pattern to 1888-89 and 1889-90

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4e4c1cf62052e882ba2a93b40b5fb27ab43fa8f6e1f138e5dcb612f6df172437.jpg

      • Chris

        Thanks!!!

    • e e

      There was a touch of +SST anomaly off Peruvian coast during the La Nina of 2010-2011.

  • CHeden

    A potent popup shower is just west of Cottonwood ATTM and tracking east.
    Should be calming down shortly as the sun is now setting…but maybe will hold together long enough to make it to my house? Got the rooftop video rolling, just in case.

    • Nate

      Good that you have video going, radar is showing some significant rotation.

    • CHeden

      Update 1900hrs:
      As expected, the shower has begun dissipating. No lightning noted but skies were briefly quite turbulent just after sundown. Only a few huge raindrops and a few puffs of wind. The shower and the surrounding mid-level Cu and towering Cu skycover is notable though, as it’s an indicator that the atmosphere is moving into a Spring-like pattern.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Treated to a fantastic sunset in the Orange Foothills.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)
  • Here is the video of the Outlet pipe at Anderson Lake yesterday.

    • Water was lapping over the spillway this afternoon. I expect it to crank beginning late Monday.

    • Tuolumne

      Lemme get my inner tube! What could go wrong?

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    The 18Z moved the bull’s eye for Mondays storm South to the Bay Area and Central .CA. Feather River would get spared. Bay Area hammered. Is too

    • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

      Hope for thunderstorms, probably not.

    • Henry

      If that is the case then the Santa Cruz Mountains are in for a lot of rain. Major mudslides and additional road closures are a real possibility.

      The models today are suggesting that this will be mainly a rain event rather than a wind event. Forecasts predict a 990 mb surface low west of the California-Oregon border, which is much further away and not as deep as yesterday’s surface low. I think it would take a 960-970 mb surface low off the California-Oregon border to produce widespread winds in the Bay Area similar to the winds that Salinas experienced yesterday. It looks like Presidents Day will be washed out, not blown away.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        I hope we don’t get those winds again. They were damaging gusts

        • Pfirman

          Any trees blow over?

      • NWS Monterey is still putting up 37hr?! wind advisory for Sonoma County to Monterey County

        • Henry

          NWS Monterey has a very low bar for issuing a wind advisory. Perhaps it is because Californians are such fair weather folks. Often many urban areas don’t even get winds above 30-35 mph. Wind damage is quite rare in most lower elevation spots in the Bay Area, the situation in Salinas yesterday being one of the exceptions.

          Now in my area in the Santa Cruz Mountains near Los Gatos, a wind advisory probably does mean 40 mph sustained winds with gusts of 50-65 mph. Though most trees and structures around here can withstand winds in that range without difficulty. An area wide high wind warning (which has been rare in the past several years) probably means hurricane force gusts and significant wind damage in exposed mountain areas.

  • Cap’n

    .3″ in the gauge for today from the drizzle/sleet/ rain/snow combo. It’s actually falling moderately at the moment. Went snow shoeing in the woods behind the house, about 100 feet above at 6K. Seems to be a solid 4-6 foot snow pack which is a little more than the west end beach (3-4 ft) which gets a little more sun. We’ll see what another huge rain event does but I’m sure it will survive. Up on the summit at 7K the snow pack is pretty great. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0984c8737032b50b79577d1246ccc0c4f2aa12a8bdbc02bd8dde0f31f91f7637.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e8079e066b9cba8614c0e3a33818ccfc27ba49d5bf57b3e47e801e5cbe879fae.jpg

  • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

    Yesterdays storm of the year looks as impressive as it was at it’s peak and is pushing through Mexico’s mountains and Baja. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/404df04d1066a8bb7350755fbb21b6679c35446eb77b3a166efb83da212f9e15.png

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Looks like the squall line has held up well. That is astonishing, on that trajectory.

      • Sokafriend

        It’s cold and snowing over the higher peaks in Baja.

        • Tuolumne

          Picacho del Diablo!

          I was fortunate enough to catch a glimpse of the snow-covered Sierra de San Pedro Mártir back in the late ’80s from Highway 1 down by the ocean.

        • Pfirman

          How high are the higher peaks? And what are they called? Certainly not Sierra Madre.

          • Tuolumne

            The two main ranges in far northern Baja are the Sierra de Juárez, getting up to about 6500 feet, and somewhat farther south the Sierra de San Pedro Mártir, getting up to about 10K. The highest peak of the latter is Picacho del Diablo.

            These ranges have the southernmost examples of Californian montane forest. They are also far enough south to get more summer precip than our SoCal mountains, with the Sierra de San Pedro Mártir averaging 40% from summer rain.

          • Pfirman

            Would not have expected 10K. Wow.

  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Currently grilling a tri tip in the rain. Skied on 2 feet of vintage high-water-content-powder (cement) today. I like winters like this. Let’s keep the flooding to a minimum, please.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      That’s a Posan local night if I’ve ever heard one! Enjoy your tri tip! Hit the gold coin for a night cap!

  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Somewhat interesting. Far north west, far south east, and tiny blob in Central Cali. We are under that tiny radar return, but it has been raining moderately for an hour now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/55fc083207c0138e0abd0c7a43ef27acf77042594f9806e7e1a1ef11702977f3.gif

  • Allen Dodson

    Road closure announced in anticipation of Don Pedro emergency spillway needing to be used: http://www.mymotherlode.com/news/local/284483/don-pedro-reservoir-near-capacity-bonds-flat-road-to-close.html

  • CHeden

    After collapsing about an hour ago, the cell west of Cottonwood has re-intensified and moved up near Redding.
    Have noted several flashes of lightning in the last 10 minutes, and radar is showing an intense rain shaft…perhaps mixed with hail. Hopefully won’t last too long so as to avoid any local hydro problems.

  • Peavine Violet

    I continue to be amazed at the sheer amount of water (snow and rain) CA and NV is receiving this Winter. Feels like 3 years’ worth! Was able to snowshoe up near a favorite hiking area near Mt Rose – Church’s Pond (6,500 to just over 8,000ft) which I haven’t been able to do in years. Is this Winter more normal, or anomalous?

    • Bartshe

      We have nearly made up for 2015, but we have a few more years at the blackjack table to make up for a string of losing winters.

      • Peavine Violet

        Figured. It feels like more than it actually is!

      • Cachuma Abedin

        Personally I love thinking about things as a loss rather than a gain – it helps to maintain perspective (or so says my wife).

        • Pfirman

          TMI.

          • Cachuma Abedin

            Important to see the world through that lens though- an ancient Chinese proverb once said “That which seeks the darkness will see the light for its deception.”

          • Pfirman

            Loss. Darkness. Deception. Wife. Perspective.

            And the capper, Cachuma.
            I hope you have remedies.

      • Tuolumne

        There’s no way to cut the cards or otherwise keep the house from cheating.

      • Pfirman

        And then there is storage. Everyone wants to build a dam and here we are trying to save them from themselves or ourselves.

        • Cachuma Abedin

          So very true – what do you suggest we do?

          • Cachuma Abedin

            I have always been in favor of the 80-20 solution for the Delta originally proposed by the Sierra Club in the 80s, but that proposal never saw much traction.

          • Pfirman

            Fix the dams. Don’t build any more, but invest in aquifer storage. Fracking is not the aquifer storage I have in mind.

        • Upslope

          Would you support Sites Dam? It’s
          Off stream so the environmental consequences are minimal.

          • Pfirman

            It has been sought after for decades with no real progress. Seems they are having trouble with funding, but the drought was helping raise interest.
            I don’t have a problem with it.

            It would not be very deep and the summers are hot, so evaporation might be an issue.

            Certainly it would not displace very many people.

    • Henry

      This winter so far is definitely anomalous, probably about as anomalous as the exceptionally dry winter of 2013-2014 was. We have not received 3 times normal rainfall, but with about two thirds of the rainy season behind us we have received between 1-1.5 times normal rainfall for an entire season.

      I wonder if Sierra snowpack will reach 200% of the April 1st normal before the end of this season. It was at 135% of April 1st average yesterday morning, and with the big storm predicted Sunday and Monday I’m guessing we get to 160% by the end of February. An average March would get us to 180%. A wet March that is not nearly as wet as January and February, but with colder storms , could get us to 200%.

      • Cap’n

        That would be the perfect way to cap it off, colder March storms. It’s usually the norm, hope it’s the case this year.

        • Henry

          Interestingly, in March the sunny days get much warmer, but the storms often get colder. In the south bay an average dry day in January might have a high/low of 55/35, and an average dry day in March might have a high/low of 68/45. But records at some sites in the Sierra seem to show higher average snowfall to rainfall ratios in March compared to January.

          • Cap’n

            Since I’ve lived up here, 9th winter, March has been the most consistent month for colder storms, even in those horrible winters we had. Problem is that the sun angle is so high, it melts fast. The good news is that we already have a good snow pack so the snow will actually fall on top of snow, melting slower. I’m looking at my log, last March I recorded 57″ here at Donner Lake. I have a feeling the second half of March is going to be huge.

          • Tuolumne

            It really sucked in past winters reading about snow finally falling and then melting quickly in the sun, never making a snowpack in most places.

            It must have been heartbreaking seeing it happen over and over right in front of your own eyes.

          • Pfirman

            Pretty sure he was sleyed, maybe even twirling, and possibly loves Mt. Shasta more than Tahoe.
            More north and a bit taller, heh.

          • Cap’n

            Sleyed, yes, twirling, no, or at least I’ll never admit it here.

          • Pfirman

            Need more data. At least links.

  • Dogwood

    To go with the Anderson Dam video below, some spillway action. I thought they were keeping this by law at 60% full, until I received this (can’t embed video so here’s a screenshot) https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c731b32a0d6ce350e11de5c6705110ec34e63981dee3ae20c74a2f86bade735e.jpg . 100% with the worst to come Sunday and Monday with what I imagine could be 5″ of additional rain.
    So, yeah, some winter.

  • Boiio
    • Henry

      This doesn’t really look that bullish for the valleys in the south bay. It shows a fairly narrow atmospheric river, with the heaviest precipitation along a line from Marin County to Tahoe. It also shows a quick drop off to the south in predicted rainfall amounts between Los Gatos and Monterey. But then again ARs this winter have tended to be slightly further south than forecast (unlike what we saw in the last few winters), so I think this might still be trouble for folks in the Santa Cruz Mountains.

      • Boiio

        The valleys of the South Bay notwithstanding, 3-6″ in 24 hours from SF to Auburn along the I-80 corridor is a recipe for problems.

        • matthew

          That is an understatement. Any guesses on how long 80 and 50 will be closed this time? From what I have seen on 80 we are probably going to see several days closure.

          • Cap’n

            One of these days Matthew I plan on kayaking to your house via Donner Pass Road and Glenshire Drive.

          • Pfirman

            Giving up on the AlTahoe waterfall?

          • Boiio

            It’s crazy! I’ve never seen 50 and 80 closed so often in my lifetime. I have a feeling a bunch of Bay Area ppl up for the holiday weekend are going to have a hell of a time getting out of the mountains on Monday.

          • Pfirman

            Their money stays too.

          • Tuolumne

            I wanted to take my wife up to the snow and I decided to wait for a better weekend. Glad I did.

          • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

            And that’s why I am leaving tomorrow night.

          • Siernev

            Yep. Given that 50 just recovered from a multi-day closure due to several slides, I think it’s in for a several day closure, as well.

        • Henry

          That is definitely true. My comment was mainly for south bay folks. In 2014 or 2015, this forecast would suggest a mostly dry scenario in the south bay. But the pattern is very different this year. I think this might be like the January 8 storm, which was extremely wet around here and throughout the Santa Cruz Mountains, and moderately wet (~1 inch) in the valleys.

      • Jim

        For what its worth, our local KSBW weather guy said the AR would start out south of the Monterey Bay, then go north and back south again…Not saying they are correct…just what he said….

        • Henry

          I read that in a NWS forecast discussion. That is what happened with the January 8 AR.

      • alanstorm

        Monday looks like a STALL over Santa Cruz/San Mateo Co.
        I’d be concerned about major flooding on the San Lorenzo R & others again.
        Could be really bad

        • Thunderstorm

          If it stalls over the Crystal Springs Reservoir then the city of San Mateo could have a problem.

          • alanstorm

            Crystal Springs? Naw. That’s never been an issue as far as I know.
            I’m thinking Pescadero Cr, San Gregorio Cr along Hiway 1.
            This storm track reminds me of Feb ’98

          • inclinejj

            I know in the past the Creek at high flows,out of Crystal Springs Dam, has caused erosion problems in lower Hillsborough and San Mateo.

    • DManSA

      I hope the rain amount for the Sacramento area actually happen. Probably won’t, but I can hope.

      • Thunderstorm

        Where is the gas shipped from to your local gas stations. Starting point?Possible delivery problems in the future? We are not thru with big storms yet. Maybe not for a long time yet!

      • Me too. Time to drain that swamp up there.

    • Nookx-Weather

      Wow. If we got 6+ inches in placerville it would break an all time record.

    • alanstorm

      Look out Santa Cruz, San Mateo Coast.

      • Bombillo1

        Look out? They haven’t been out of the bunker since October. If storms have a cumulative effect, and they do, then the SC contingent are going to be making some headlines shortly.

    • no this storm will go south in to S Cal and soke us

  • Animalcule

    Good luck!

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Sokafriend

      There’s the first emergency warning CAPS on an ominous black background, no less.

  • alanstorm

    I guess rain will be starting tomorrow SOONER then later in Pleasanton at the Home & Garden Soakfest.
    Was very good business today, but unfortunately, tomorrow no one will show, then I will be loading up in the rain, then driving to Ukiah as it intensifies.
    That’s what u get when u have an outdoor show in Feb.

    • Nookx-Weather

      I thought it was renamed to the Pleasanton Boat & Canoe

    • Sokafriend

      Great that collectors came out today, perfect way to break the rained in blues.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Got out into the pseudo-backcountry (far enough away that you can die if you do something really stupid, but generally ‘civilization’ is stubbornly within earshot) this afternoon in the shadows of Mt Pluto between 7k – 8k. Snowpack is very healthy and tree holes are huge — they must be real people eaters on the western slope — backcountry skiers beware.

    • Pfirman

      Nothing pseudo if you can die. My alley is backcountry by your definition.

    • Bobby M (This Year Was a Bust)

      Was up there to today

  • redlands

    Redlands, Ca — Southern Ca — Rainfall Stats
    Feb 17-2017 — 1.42
    Feb 18-2017 — 0.20
    ———————–
    ——————————

    • Pfirman

      Whoa, broke into the ones column.

    • DManSA

      I would have to agree, while parts such as SB and Ventura saw big rainfalls. It was well overblown for places like Irvine and LAX were being told to prepare for 3-5″ of rain, but barely got over 1.5″ of rain.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Wow, I thought la had gotten at least 3 inches and 60 mph winds based on the hysteria (news).

  • Sokafriend

    Closest official reading for last night and today’s rain is 1.46. HIgh gusts at Imperial Beach Naval Station were 61. I think we topped out around 52 here. We’ve got an interesting moderate to heavy rain going on now, started about 8:30. Run off is considerably higher after the previous rain. Hmm.

    • redlands

      where are u at

      • Sokafriend

        164 feet above sea level on South side of the boundary line.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          Norte Baja

        • Cap’n

          Rad! I didn’t know you actually lived there. I think I made a dumb joke the other day on a comment thread? For some reason I always thought you were Central California, there are so many of us it’s hard to keep track! I’d love to pull off a Baja surf trip again some soon summer, been way too long.

          • Jason Jackson Willamette

            Quatros casas?

  • HighWater
    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      So cool to see that snow up there.

  • alanstorm
    • Rusty Rails

      Water is still flowing out of everything here so this should be interesting.

      • Jim

        Interesting or ugly…maybe both

      • alanstorm

        San Mateo Coast up Hwy 1 will get hit hard

  • Jason

    Up here in the Bay Area, I would have never known where Cachuma was without this blog. Now I do.

    When I mentioned Cachuma to a work colleague from San Luis Obispo, he was surprised that I knew about it. Turns out he spent some time over there and knew about its peculiar geography. I think we’re both pretty happy it’s doing much better as of late. He mentioned that Santa Barbara is a tough coastal watershed to manage and desalination is an energy intensive solution.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    I have not read analysis on tomorrows storm other than the major flooding concerns. Is tomorrows storm like the socal storm, or just an AR hitting an already saturated place at the wrong time.

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      It’ll have a tap. 1.7 Could stall over the Bay Area for 12-18 hours. Windy too. Late Sunday night through Monday evening, basically an all day rain of varying intensity. Monday I won’t leave the house unless its to go endanger myself looking at the creeks rage!

    • sezwhom

      AR stalls over Bay Area. Between SFO and SC Mts.

  • Unbiased Observer

    Wasn’t home but a freak shower brought .3″ in a short time. Radar looked like a few hundredths.

  • Danlyle (Mariposa)

    Radar still showing line of showers along foothills from here south to the Grapevine. Very light rains, but persistent. Will take daily total to 1″

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert Lancaster area. storm rain total 1.36 in. according to my weather station.i guess the year total is 3.84 in.

    • Sokafriend

      Does that include today?

    • redlands

      what kind of weather station

      • mattzweck

        Davis weather instruments vantage pro 2 cabled version.

  • William_LeGro

    OK, what’s THAT? And is it heading for us? What’s its raison d’etre?https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/54e1d08ab355359433fab7a8691cec5a27f0cf521b47ce4f4bb5f2aa0ed77d6f.png

    • sezwhom

      Nice arrows but it’s not heading towards LA but SF. Thus, that’s our “thing that matters most to us”.

  • William_LeGro

    18.81″ – that’s what my gauge has measured since October for central LA – the batteries died sometime in October so I think the total should be maybe a coupla inches more that came earlier in the month, not sure

  • palmsprings

    Got 0.66″ out of this storm which was nice, but not exactly earth-shattering. The biggest rain producer this season was still the Baja-bomber cutoff low of 12/21-12/22 which brought over 1.5″!

  • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

    The PWATS acosiated with the atmospheric river storm coming to a California shore near you on the central coast tomorrow is as high as 1.7 PWATS!! That’s some juicy moisture! This is gonna be a great storm tomorrow! I’ll be working in the thick of it, but the restaurant I work at has a full view of the wharf and the Monterey bay right on the wharf! And you can see the rain shafts coming down right outside the windows on the ocean! It looked really cool yesterday! So it ain’t all that bad I can still see the storm while I’m working! ???? it does make business slower though so that’s the downside, but overall I’m excited to see what this next storm will bring! Cheers to the golden days in California! ?? it doesn’t get much better than this! 2017 rocks! ?????

  • Ralph (Hacienda Heights)

    Exiting the 60 through Hacienda Heights before dusk yesterday I had the windshield wipers full speed and still could not see. As I exited and made my right hand turn there was a loud thud near what felt like and sounded the right side of my Camaro. In a panic with the rain and the ponding I gassed it out of there. I’m pretty sure it was an animal but I really am not sure.

  • Sokafriend

    12Z Sunday- 12Z Wednesday.
    Not too late to grab the Go bags:
    http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/d13_fill.gif?1487492336526

    • DManSA

      All of that yellow and red up north makes me happy. We need more rain.

    • Bombillo1

      Soak, nice national map. Do you suppose, now that California will be getting something like 300 % more rain than any other region of the nation for the Sun-Wed time frame, that the Weather Channel might mention this? Maybe a 15 second spot for the place that one out of 7 people in the United Sates lives and 80% of all produce for the nation is generated? Not too much time mind you, before getting back to the Ohio Valley weather situation…

  • Bombillo1

    California is experiencing “one of the wettest winters on record” and yet we are
    unable to bring ourselves to recognize what this means. After this silly 6 inches of rain we are expecting for Sun thru Tues we, in very N Ca, will be getting another rain on Friday and yet another on Sunday. My point is that we, on this blog of all places, are in denial as to the historical flooding and related damages that we are facing. This stuff is cumulative and should we get one more AR after this Monday event it is going to begin to send a lot of people packing. It is only the middle of Feb, this needs to sink in, if the choice of words can be excused.

  • Bombillo1