Another storm for rain-weary California this week, then a break, then…yet more storms to come.

Filed in Uncategorized by on February 7, 2017 6,973 Comments

Remarkable California wet spell continues

The Thursday storm will drop additional heavy rainfall over Northern California, especially in the Sierra Nevada and foothills. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

This will be a brief update due to time constraints, but given the widespread and somewhat more significant than anticipated storm impacts across Northern California today, the next storm bearing down on the state bears close watching. An intense atmospheric river brought widespread heavy rain and strong winds to much of NorCal early this morning, causing widespread flooding of streams, smaller rivers, and coastal areas (especially near the Bay Area). Observed flooding and other storm impacts were more severe than initially anticipated–partly because the frontal structure (and therefore rainfall rates) were a bit more impressive than expected, but also because soils throughout the region have now reached total saturation (and, in some cases, “supersaturation”). Thus, virtually all rainfall at this point is generating rapid runoff and flowing into bodies of water that are already experiencing residually high flows. Additionally, the threat of both smaller mudslides and deeper landslides is now quite high across much of California–as evidenced by numerous road closures in recent days.

Animation showing the reinvigorated “Pineapple Express” storm set to make landfall Thursday. (NCEP via UCSD)

After one of the wettest starts to the rainy season on record, California’s water capture and conveyance infrastructure is now under considerable strain. In addition to the longstanding threat of levee failures in the Delta (and elsewhere) under high flow conditions, the concrete spillway on the Oroville Dam in Butte County has apparently been compromised by erosion due to controlled high-flow releases this morning. While this damage does not threaten the integrity of the dam itself, the spillway is currently unusable–which prevents dam operators from releasing enough water to counterbalance the very high inflows that are expected to continue for at least the next 72 hours. The California Department of Water Resources is confident that existing contingency measures will be sufficient to prevent bigger problems in the short term, but with more heavy precipitation on the horizon in the 7-10+ day period, this will be a development to watch closely in the coming days.

 

Reinvigorated “Pineapple Express” on Thursday; more flooding concerns

Another strong surface cyclone off the coast of California will position itself in a manner that will act to “resurrect” the existing plume of subtropical moisture transport initiated by the storm earlier today. Thus, a reinvigorated warm and very moist atmospheric river will move across northern California on Thursday–bringing another threat of very heavy rainfall (especially in the mountains and foothills). Cumulative totals in most urban areas will not be enormous–likely on the order of an inch or two–but rainfall rates could be quite high for a time along with strong winds. Flash flooding and urban flooding is again likely in parts of the Bay Area and Sacramento Valley, and it is possible that flood impacts could again be elevated above what would usually be expected from this strong (but not particularly extreme) storm. It is worth noting that the watersheds that drain into the Oroville Dam are expected to see 6-7+ inches of additional rainfall between now and early Friday. Southern California will largely escape any flood concerns with the Thursday system, although light to moderate rainfall may linger into Friday. Also of note: high snow levels, and warm rain at relatively high elevations in the Sierra Nevada, could cause additional problems with local flooding and even roof collapses as water-laden snow accumulates.

 

Strong multi-model agreement on brief break, then return to (very?) wet pattern in 7-10 days

Another impressive extension of the Pacific jet will be aimed squarely at California by mid-February. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

By the weekend, all of California will experience a much-needed respite from the deluge. In fact, a 5-7 day dry spell is looking pretty likely at the moment. But by mid-February, there is already remarkably strong multi-model agreement that a wet (and perhaps very wet) pattern will resume across California, and this time the entire state from San Diego to Eureka will probably get soaked. Yet another impressive eastward extension of the Pacific jet stream will probably bring the storm track right to our doorstep in that timeframe, and at this very early juncture it looks like there could be the potential for strong wind events in addition to heavy rainfall events. That would most likely raise the spectre of significant flood concerns once again.

Whew.

Many of you are probably wondering: why, exactly, is California experiencing such an extraordinarily (and unexpectedly) wet winter? Well, that’s a question for another blog post–partly due to time constraints, but also because the answer is not immediately obvious. Once things calm down a bit later this year, I’ll revisit this topic (and perhaps there will be some new research available to discuss at that point). In the meantime, I’ll still be providing real-time updates on Twitter.

 

 

 

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  • Cap’n
  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    This may be in the NE, but wow… Can’t wait until this satellite goes into full access. Imagine how our incoming wet pattern would look after the GOES-16 had a few runs. https://twitter.com/NOAASatellites/status/831230306942324736

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Should have it online for the next rainy season. I can’t wait.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Wunderground cut the rainfall this afternoon but went back over 3 inches for my area this morning.

  • Barry

    The earths mantle is heating up. First diverse earthquakes, then cyclones to cool the cracked areas, the earths belt was formed around the equator (hottest areas), be carefull for the first two signs are of the devil, to signal to all his kings that the great holy war is about to begin.. the next sign shall be from God ( watch the animals for they will teach you ) pay atttention not for a flood for these are the beginning of great sorrows, pay attention for atmospheric rivers bringing the water to the middle of your land and flooding from the inside, like your seeing in california. Rain, evaporate, rain, evaporate, ground fills unnoticed, FLOOD! OmG!!!… sorrows are for sinners. Help all you can, other wise enjoy the beauty for you get to witness mother earths immune system balance itself and reclaim its resources. God bless you all, if there are 10 believers of the Lord God in your town then your town shall certainly be saved by the blood of Jesus 🙂

    • Sokafriend

      Wrong blog.

      • Barry

        You will see, all this is connected son. God made these things dont you know.. he made them do the things your gods predict or explains to you that happens

        • Barry

          Low pressure, he made that… bombogenesus, he made that… although such an aweful name im sure he did not wish for. Reminds me of barack O bama.. the book of Genesus explains the creation of life if you did not know, and ISIS is the mother of Horus who is the brother of Set (ISIS is nothing but another group killing in their gods name) 😉

          • Barry

            A good idea… dont let them inject you with thr flu virus, dont have standing water, feed wild animals, spread seeds that produce fruit in desolate areas, burn fires with good wood ( some live, alot wet ) this will warm the birds and suffering animals, strenghten your foundation and untrap water back to mother earth, the lord loveth the smell of burnt flesh (wood splintered open) he loves incent added to the fire ( ginger, spices etc, a bark soaked in olive oil ) for these things make the lord happy for they are good, scatter your compost piles to release moisture, warn people, pray, get an assault riffle to protect your children, pray, BE HAPPY 🙂 AND MOST IMPORTANT KNOW WHO THE ENEMY IS FOR THEY ARE 1000x IN NUMBERS THEN YOU COULD EVER IMAGINE.

          • whisperingsage

            Barry, how do I private message you? Are you being serious or sarcastic?

          • Bombillo1

            I assure you that Bombillogenisis did not occur in that way. Insultuous.

  • Barry

    A good idea… dont let them inject you with thr flu virus, dont have standing water, feed wild animals, spread seeds that produce fruit in desolate areas, burn fires with good wood ( some live, alot wet ) this will warm the birds and suffering animals, strenghten your foundation and untrap water back to mother earth, the lord loveth the smell of burnt flesh (wood splintered open) he loves incent added to the fire ( ginger, spices etc, a bark soaked in olive oil ) for these things make the lord happy for they are good, scatter your compost piles to release moisture, warn people, pray, get an assault riffle to protect your children, pray, BE HAPPY 🙂 AND MOST IMPORTANT KNOW WHO THE ENEMY IS FOR THEY ARE 1000x IN NUMBERS THEN YOU COULD EVER IMAGINE.

  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Due the Lake Oroville situation, I hope that 2nd storm Monday and Tuesday takes a dramatic southern tract from where it is forecasted on GFS.

    Actually, who am I kidding. I’m just greedy.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Beautiful day ahead in Davis — currently 48F and barometer steady at 30.08 with light breeze from WNW

    • Bombillo1

      Your day is about to change rather dramatically. 3 inches in 3 days would have sparked 100 comments here 2 years ago, today, not even mentioned in passing. Have we finally reached satiation?

      • Charlie B

        Satiation? Or saturation?

        • Bombillo1

          Satiation, the emotional desire for rain. Not quite the same as saturation.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Indeed — not satiated yet as I’m still counting rain days in Davis as beautiful (wife doesn’t agree) — and good word choice as we are in fact saturated (even in Davis), but my emotional desire for rain remains as I’m still suffering from PTDD (post traumatic drought disorder)

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Interesting series of tweets discussing how a Super El Nino like last year can make “permanent changes or create paradigm shifts in circulation, patterns and climate.” So although it was a bust for parts of CA, maybe it is still partly responsible for this years deluge, strong jet stream, etc.

    I believe our current wet period is most likely related to the sharp SST gradient in the north a pacific and changes in the artic, but maybe those things are being partly driven by last years El Nino?

    https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/831850950713278464

    • Bombillo1

      We were ascribing our drought condition to the same boogie men 2 years ago (Artic Ice, odd SST distribution, Blob etc.). We were also wondering if the dryness was the new norm, much angst about the consequences of the Hadley Cell migration etc. We do tend to project current conditions forward. Are we at an inflection point in our weather, I would be reluctant to give that an unqualified yes.

      • DelMarSD

        Agreed.

      • weatherhead

        Perhaps a qualified yes? If something in a loose equilibrium is given a shove, it can either fall over, or rock back and forth, depending on the force of the shove. Change creates instability, which can create more change. Scientists will be debating this for many years while data is gathered. Meanwhile, the temperature just keeps going up….sooner or later, I fear we will reach a tipping point.

      • Jeff

        seems to be a healthy dose of “recency bias” in trying to ascribe all recent weather events to one thing or another, often seemingly attributed to a preconceived notion of what it should be caused by and a whole lot of Monday morning quarterbacking with regard to what the long term models got wrong again. weather is by definition extremely variable, it will be statistically different every year, does not mean it was caused by one thing or another.

        looking at san diego rainfall data since 1850, there has always been a boom or bust scenario, the really big years skew the average rainfall data up where the majority of years are below average, certainly no significant long term pattern change is visible https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9509147f0f95f5d3291c642002541234444e95bd17f4d3c56bd8448ace9e194f.gif

        http://www.custompuzzlecraft.com/Weather/sandiegorain.html

        I think it is especially useful to compare both the calendar year (years listed at bottom) and weather year data https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b9cf34d4d015307bd9369f5758c7cf26d947766cc16c18c464802efa01abced0.jpg

    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Hindsight clarity

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    wow

    i like what the 12z GFS is showing for the hole state

    this storm is looking much wetter for the hole state now mod too heavy rain for every one

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_10.png

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017021512/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_10.png

    • weathergeek100

      This is no different than earlier runs showing most rain going into SoCal with less in your area. Not sure what you’re so excited about.

      • RunningSprings6250

        That little peepee stain over Sonora was a little to the right yesterday…

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        “the hole state” transales to “Sonora”

      • Cap’n

        That shows a good period of high Sierra snow “if” it happens.

    • Bombillo1

      The hole state really doesn’t need this.

    • cthenn

      What am I missing. A lot of posts about another big AR event and heavy wind and rain, but (at least) NWS Bay Area AFD mentions nothing of the sort. In fact, they say “As has been noted no storm looks particularly strong”, so is this just more weather over-excitement? I’ll wait for NWS to declare massive storms with wind and rain before I become breathless…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Don’t get too excited. I’ve seen models show rain for the hole state before, only to change their mind and see the hole storm go South into Baja with little or no rain in the hole Northern half of the state.

  • Sublimesl

    Try as they might, they can’t seem to get Oroville much lower, still at 979 ft. Their goal was 50 ft lower, which would have been 950 ft. Yet another misfire on the part of the DWR.

    • cthenn

      Yes, DWR…bunch of punk failures. They should put you in charge, along with all the other internet geniuses who know exactly how to fix the problem!

      • Sublimesl

        I accept!

        • cthenn

          Give us a sneak peak into your solution. I’d love to know what these incompetent fools are doing wrong.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            Really? Here. I will list a few on his behalf:

            Not issuing evacution WARNINGS on day 1.

            Giving false information “No danger to the public”

            Saying the E-Spillway was not going to be used then 12 hours later it being used (after a flip flop before that)

            Shutting the mainspillway off for multiple hours, saying that it could not handle more than 55K CFS, then upping it to 65k CFS dropping it back down due to erosion then increasing it to 100k when the espillway started to be used and danger was feared.

            A pure failure at understanding the weather and inflows.

            Do I need to go on?

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            Oh, I love these two: Renaming the emergency spillway to auxiliary spillway and correcting people on twitter saying the main spillway has not collapsed.

          • Sublimesl

            Hmm, I would have put a concrete apron on the e-spillway as recommended? Instead we got this:

            “It is important to recognize that during a rare event with the emergency spillway flowing at its design capacity, spillway operations would not affect reservoir control or endanger the dam,” wrote John Onderdonk, a senior civil engineer with FERC, in the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission’s San Francisco Office, in a July 27, 2006, memo to his managers.

            http://www.mercurynews.com/2017/02/12/oroville-dam-feds-and-state-officials-ignored-warnings-12-years-ago/

          • cthenn

            Hindsight is always 20/20. Are we talking about the current situation, or 10 years ago? And where would the $100 million or so come from? There is a thing called aging infrastructure. Locally, there have been road washouts and sinkholes and other various problems due to failing culverts and drainage systems. No one ever wants to pay for infrastructure, so it’s not surprising.

            Much further down in this comment thread I posted an image from Google Earth of the concrete spillway, riddled with cracks, back from 2008! If they don’t have money to repair the main spillway, where are they going to come up with the money to armor an entire hillside? How do you know this person who wrote the memo actually didn’t believe what he was writing? Is it possible he actually believed what he wrote, do you know what kinds of tests/studies were done? I sure don’t. Again, hindsight is 20/20, but unless you know for a fact he was lying, in order to prevent having to spend 100 million they didn’t have to begin with, that proves nothing.

    • Aussie Joe

      You mean 879 ft right?

    • Bombillo1

      Is that 979 number correct?

      • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

        no its at 879 right now

      • Sublimesl

        typo, meant 879

    • If you want to spout your uninformed views on the DWR, get a Twitter account.

  • If the latest GFS run is to be believed things dry out for SoCal after this weekend.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      How are you look past that monster storm on Friday/Saturday!

      • I’m looking forward to this weekends storm. Looks like the best storm of the season. My comment was only that after this weekend, what looked like an active pattern yesterday is pretty much dry in the latest run

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          sorry, I had a typo. I meant “how dare you” and I was being facetious, sorry :).

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Would this be unfavorable for the Oroville situation because of the high snow levels? (I don’t mean to over speculate)

      • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

        Yep high snow levels more run off

  • Drew Stofflet
    • Bombillo1

      Great shot. Here she comes.

      • Drew Stofflet

        Rain started the second your reply hit. Yes, she’s here. And I guess thid spells wetness for the dog/beach walk.

        • weatherhead

          I live near there, too. Nice to have another contributor from the north coast. Maybe we will bump into each other. Small town.

          • Drew Stofflet

            I live in Elk for now.

    • gray whale

      Albion River bluffs?

      • weatherhead

        Mendocino village headlands

      • Drew Stofflet

        Mendo Village

    • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

      Is that close to the little river inn? I miss their crab omelette.

      • weatherhead

        2 miles north of LRInn

      • Drew Stofflet

        Two miles north

    • Dan weather maniac

      Ahhh Mendo county…possibly my faovrite place in the world. Cant wait to get back up there this summer after not having went in several years.

    • alanstorm

      There’s nowhere better to go in mid July when it’s 104° in Willits. Just 35 minutes down 20 & it’s COLD.
      It’s like stepping into another world

      • Drew Stofflet

        Unless you live here and like normal summer weather, then you must do the reverse drive

    • ben

      Water entry for ab diving is over the bridge.

    • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

      Not gud. Some will like it; some will not. Enjoy your rain SoCal. And hey, you coasties, if you see a converted “shed boat” floating off of the pacific coast, come and get me. Thanks.

    • Nathan

      Looks like storms 1,2 and 4 hit Oroville but won’t do much in the way of extreme rain and melt.

      Storm 3 needs to F off because it does exactly that.

    • weathergeek100

      Has the low been trending further north in the models? Looks like more of a direct hit at the US/Mexican border vs northern Baja.

      Also, you can see why Ventura and Santa Barbara counties will get hit so hard vs San Diego. The rain band pivots and kind of stalls when it gets to those counties.

    • whisperingsage

      Nooooooooooooo, send it south!

    • weathergeek100

      Either warm and wet or warm and dry. Precipitation extremes from record drought to record flood. All I hear is ‘global warming’.

      • DelMarSD

        I’d say some of these precipitation extremes may be amplified by climate change. But CA has always had boom/bust cycle with lots of droughts and flooding (so has Texas). “Average” years here are very rare. Going back hundreds of years in Ca history, you can see that huge differences in rainfall year-to-year are the norm, and not anything new.

        • weathergeek100

          You have a point. Didn’t the drought in the 70s end with a very wet year in 78/79? Something like that.

          In SoCal, it’s especially true that average years are extremely rare. San Diego’s driest years have gotten around 3″ of precip and the wettest years over 20″ (2004/2005 I think 22 or 24″….just insane for that city).

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            If you look at previous years, a flood year can even come in the midst of a drought period

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          Not like the average temperature in Del Mar, being 74, because sometimes the temperature is 73 and sometimes it is 75. I like Del Mar.

          • whisperingsage

            I hate averages, they are deceptive. Tell me the extremes and what I have to prepare for. If your extremes are 60 F and 90 F or if they are -5 and 104 that tells me more that I want to know. I moved from the former to the latter and it’s still hard.

      • whisperingsage

        I understand there was global warming in the garden of Eden, I understand it was quite wonderful.

        • weatherhead

          Google Green Sahara. Sahara dessert was once quite wet and inhabited, Weather patterns changed mainly as a result of Earth’s precession, how it wobbles on its axis over thousands of years

      • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

        Seriously?

      • alanstorm

        Sure, the globe is warming at an alarming rate, but it’s almost impossible to connect that recent patterns. What is a record flood? It could be a single stalled supercell over somewhere in SoCal or a 5 day AR over Humboldt. Record rainfall years don’t always equal record floods, or vice versa.
        Maybe there’s a connection to odd Jetstream actions, but like most of us, I’m just guessing.

    • sc100

      The Monday storm is reverting back more and more every run to what was shown four or five days ago. Very warm and wet. The trend isn’t our friend here.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    Mar could end up being dry for once after Feb 25 seems like we will not get any more rain

    • RunningSprings6250

      Seriously?! I would think you would know better!

      • Charlie B

        I predict, here and now, that June will be quite dry for almost all of California. (Of course, it’s usually dry since winter/spring storms are gone and monsoon hasn’t started, but hey, I feel confident on my prediction.)

        • weathergeek100

          I predict that July, August and September will be dry, too;)

          • Charlie B

            Your crystal ball works!!! It will have some heat waves, too! I bet Death Valley reaches 120+ and Palm Springs 115+. I suspect coastal areas might have some fog from time to time.

          • weathergeek100

            I predict a May Gray and June gloom pattern along the coast with some lessening of it into July. Highs will be in the 70s southern coastal and 60s central to north coastal. Inland areas will be in the 90s. There might be some afternoon thunderstorms from time to time in the mountains, mainly SoCal mountains!

          • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

            I predict that October comes after September.

          • Jim

            Not unless Storm Master says it does….silly you

        • Jim

          Magic 8 ball says……

        • whisperingsage

          My first June in Lassen, there was an inch of hail! My chow dog loved it. He rolled in it. Didn’t last long of course, but I hadn’t experienced much thunder or rain storms in the summer in Santa Cruz so it was new to me.

    • cthenn

      you’re like a magic 8 ball.

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      #bust

    • Jim

      Are you basing this strictly on the GFS ? There was discussion I believe a week or so ago from I believe one of the open snow folks that the ultra long range models were hinting at a repeat of the AR’s earlier this year. There’s no way you can base March on a model that hardly goes into March……

      • AlTahoe

        Yep the Ridge is going back up to Alaska and the Jet will undercut again after the first week of March. Rinse and Repeat is the theme this winter.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Based on what? The GFS only goes out 16 days which only includes part of March 3rd @384hrs, which is squarely in Fantasyland range at that point. Unless you’re looking at the CFS, which has a track record that is even worse than the Lakers this season.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Omg stop, the models were so terribly wrong about FEB. you said we would “learn”

      • RunningSprings6250

        Or was it lean?

    • Troll Master

    • alanstorm

      I wouldn’t get all wet over those model images past 10 days. They’ve been 100% right & 100% wrong this season, so…..

    • Freddy66

      Ok

  • M. (Ventura County)

    Venco now projected to receive 5 inches on Friday according to WU. Might be needing to canoe to work that day.

    • DelMarSD

      Wow.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica predicted rainfall from today till next Wednesday 4.47 inches from Weather Underground. Going to see how close they are.

    • cthenn

      Oh I doubt that’s intended to be gospel. Just like when you see the very end of the 10-day forecast, sometimes the rain % is flatlined at some high number without break. It’s all estimations which are refined the closer we come to the time frame. In fact, for my area, they are showing 0.65″ today alone…even though the fact is there will be no rain today at all.

      For fun, excluding the obviously wrong number for today, from Thu-Wed next, I am showing 3.17″.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Be sure to compare the NWS forecast vs “Best Forecast”. For my area, NWS is always closer. Here are the differences for San Jose. NWS on the top. If Best Forecast came to fruition this year, San Jose would be at 30 inches.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ede674570b2d6547dbdea1bb7661b6762b3ea537d35a603e2fd7214522386f4e.png

  • cthenn

    Poorly worded, but 50 is back open. THE HORDES WILL BE DESCENDING THIS WEEKEND!
    https://twitter.com/CaltransDist3/status/831759631382872064

    • Jim

      They mentioned that on KTVU news this morning…one of their former reporters was going up and hardly saw a car….good for him I guess, beat the crowds

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Much of Friday’s event now coming within the window of the Hi Resolution Models. Here’s what the 3km NAMX is showing through 4pm on Friday. (Remember the storm will affect the area through Saturday AM) Looks like Western half of LA County, Ventura and SB Counties will be getting hammered during this period:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/74e24c1473349636119ad1c0c877951251a545b6528893f4d3e4943a3840bbdb.gif

    • cthenn

      If that’s not a hammer…

    • Jim

      You should probably wait for storm master to offer up his opinion first…make sure the storm doesn’t go north like he says they all do….

    • DelMarSD

      This is beautiful.

      • Tangocity

        How much is Del Mar projected to get on Weather Underground now? Totals have been falling with every refresh. Is it under 1″ yet?

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          It does look like the focus of the heaviest rain in SoCal will be from OC Northward. Southern end of San Diego could get an inch or more. This is the first season in 5 years where a city could get 1″ of rain and feel left behind, LOL.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Gnarley

    • Chris Kiely

      If that doesn’t give Cachuma and the Santa Ynez watershed a good soaking, I give up.

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        We are going to see major runoff into Cachuma. It has been slowly creeping up even during these extended dry periods. If downtown SB gets 3″, the pass will get 6″ (Friday), I’m guessing Cachuma will be at 30% by Monday. That’s conservative.

    • M. (Ventura County)

      Looks like someone turned on the hose for Ventura, LA and SB and forgot to turn it off!

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      Dig it! OC is ready for another round of wet!

    • CanyonKid

      Look out VTA!

      • Tangocity

        I put out 35 sand bags this morning.

    • cthenn

      Are those hi res models freely accessible or pay wall?

      • Siernev

        NAM and HRRR are freely accessible. Categorized under mesoscale models on Tropical Tidbits.

        • cthenn

          thanks found it.

    • Forsyth Shizzle

      SBA runways are built on the landfill of a slough. Looks like the airport might be closed this weekend

    • Siernev

      Do you happen to know the latest on the NAM-3km? As far as I know it’s still experimental, and I recall earlier this winter is was overdoing precip in some cases. Have there been any refinements to it?

      I still use the NAM-4km but would love to switch if it’s “ready.”

    • cthenn

      This is as good a place as any to ask I suppose, but can someone briefly explain (simplistic is fine) why there are – and the differences between – all the various forecast models? I mean just looking on that Tropical Tidbits site there are a very large number of models, even 4 different “NAM” models. As a lay person, I’m curious what the differences in the models are, and why there are so many.

  • Fairweathercactus

    How often does something of this magnitude take place if it comes together as strong as models show?

  • Cap’n

    Wife is flying into Long Beach airport Friday late afternoon. Her mom is picking her up but then having her drive the car if it’s pouring. No problem, she commutes to Reno regularly in conditions that would make most people’s anus pucker. Funny thing is she comes back to Reno Monday afternoon with another storm waiting for her.

    She is the one and only Storm Master, the real one.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I’m feeling a little puckered myself! Waiting for this storm with such anticipation!

    • Crank Tango

      We’re all gonna be so flagged.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Thank You, Carp.

    • rainingonmycactus

      Knowing the drainage in long beach, the roads will probably be flooded!

    • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

      I’m sorry to have to focus on grammar here, but it should be “peoples’ anus'”

      okay?

      • Drew Stofflet

        Wouldn’t it be “peoples’anuses”

        • Thor

          ani

          • Drew Stofflet

            Right

          • RunningSprings6250

            Storm Master you mean?

      • People is in plural posessive case, and since anus is derived from Latin, it should be: peoples’ anii.

        Such a scholarly group you are, me thinks!

        • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

          Well, sir, I’ll have you know that English is a fluid language, and by the time I have typed this, the correct usage will have become: “peep’s no no”

      • inclinejj

        Grammar is nothing to get anal about.

      • Crank Tango
        • scott

          Judge Wapner! That is a blast from the 80s!

    • mosedart (SF)

      Long Beach airport is my favorite airport in the world.

  • SloTruckeeJohn

    This picture was taken several days ago and shows conditions on the Big Sur Coast along Highway 1 in Monterey County. There are many failed areas like this that will require both short and long term repair strategies. Extensive damage like this hasn’t been seen in this area since 1998.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88f987e099c5d07bd80f4f040a5c9ba48ab4718b3ffd61fdc11e3f6cc87a1b5e.jpg

  • John Curtis

    Wow! Another great storm in a Curtis year!

    • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

      The weather wizards power has been transferred to your being! I have lost the power of visions as of late, you have been gifted them John Curtis! 😉 I’ve still got some cloud magic left in me though! ?

      • Yolo Hoe

        Santa Cruz area should definitely confer enhanced visioning powers in due course

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Please grace us with a preview of March?!

      • John Curtis

        Hard to bet that it well let up given this year’s consistency.

    • Thunderstorm

      Starting to look like you under forecast this years rain.

      • John Curtis

        32.75″ inches in Ojai by May 15 was my prediction before it even rained this season. Ojai’s at around 19″ right now. If we get to 25″ by Wednesday of next week, I think I may nail my prediction within 1/4″.

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          Ojai is showing almost 7 inches on my wunderground forecast through Saturday night… That’s Insane!

  • alanstorm

    FLOOD STAGES for Salinas & San Joaquin Rivers by Saturday
    San Joaquin graph projects a “DANGER LEVEL” (purple line) by Saturday.
    Would that be levee-topping level?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b4d0355e5bc7602f915c0a329d96fa6d533055f3ceaf52f0b68423c263a5c9e4.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/73164f927e903d3c24188e4007e016c98ad46371cddd18222257499364ff30be.png

    • BeerguyOE

      We already lost one person to the Salinas river they still haven’t found him

    • sc100

      Bottom of the webpage for the San Joaquin River says the top of the levee is 37.3 feet.

    • Danger is overtopped levee. There’s one area south of Manteca that may be the first to overtop

      • alanstorm

        Likely more snowmelt

  • IE Weather (Chino Hills)

    Why hasn’t anyone posted the EURO maps? I’ve been waiting for like a day!

    • weathergeek100

      Because they’re not free.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Alanstorm: do I recall correctly that you do chainsaw sculpture? If yes, do you participate in the commercial marketplace? If yes, do you have a business link?

    Apologies if I’ve got this wrong — not trying to pull a Kelly ann on the blog!!

    • alanstorm

      Yes, but I think using this forum to promote my business might get me chastised by the MODERATOR.?
      I will have a booth Pleasanton Home & Garden Show this weekend & reporting on weather conditions!
      (Fri- clear, Sat- rain, Sun-clear)

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thanks — will chase you down at some point — Kellyann signing off

  • cthenn

    Oroville is a very touchy subject so let’s keep this weather related. Interesting post on the Metabunk site regarding the next week of rain and it’s inflow effects on the watershed.

    “Another way of looking at the potential inflows.

    Oroville watershed, based on original reservoir plans, and tweaked for ridges in Google Earth.
    20170215-105936-ntaze.

    GE tells me this is 3672 square miles. Oroville Lake is 25 square miles. So the watershed is very roughly 150x the lake area.

    Very simplistically that would mean if you get 1″ of rain, then that’s maximum 150” of lake rise (12.5 feet)

    Looking at a weather station in the watershed, Berry Creek, that’s six inches over the next 8 days, realtively evenly spread.
    https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=Berry+Creek,+CA

    20170215-110640-dxyaz.

    That would translate (and again, a very simplistic figure) to 100 feet rise over those 8 days at 12.5 feet per day.

    Current 100K CFS is dropping the lake at 0.6 feet per hour, or 15 feet per day, 120 feet over 8 days.

    So the level of the lake should continue to fall overall, with only some minor pauses to rise. It’s at 877 now. After the storm is over, worst case it will be at 857 feet.

    And I think this a very conservative estimate. For one thing not all the precipitation will fall as rain (some will be snow, which just stays on the hill for now), and some is lost to groundwater aquifers, and the actual streams and rivers take some time to get to the lake. So almost certainly the level of the lake will be well under 850 feet in 8 days.”

    Any thoughts?

    • Forsyth Shizzle

      Yes — I think you should apply for Bill Croyle’s job.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      How much headroom is there? Is that the term? The height of the e-spillway brim versus the sill of the regular spillway. Can the lake drop 120 feet without the power plant (not even sure is that is working right now). I know for rain catchment, my house roof will generate 600 gallons for every inch of rain. I don’t know how many gallons I would get if there was several feet of snow on the roof when it rained.

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        The main spillway is no longer able to release water at 821′ according to multiple posts here and other blogs. After 821′ the only way to decrease further is through the powerplant which I haven’t seen or heard anything official on whether it is still releasing water or not. Please correct if I am wrong.

        This would mean the lake will not drop below 821′ anytime soon.

        • Tangocity

          I think a lot of dam design and engineering lessons have been learned from this current episode. Maybe they were already learned and implemented on other dams.

    • alanstorm

      The strongest storm in the series for the Feather R watershed would be the first, then the next 2 come in further south.
      Given that last week’s event was a major warm wind/rain snowmelt event, I can see why DWR is confident.
      I’m not saying that won’t happen again this spring, but I don’t think they feel it will from this series.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4218fd5fcb4cc73757f1ba9db7c257dcbb5a189d4f141c488ef3343120b8551a.jpg

      • Nathan

        I think the 20/21st storm is definitely the strongest/warmest/wettest for the period. After snowfall. So it’s definitely not looking good, but hopefully will remain below the E-spillway.

    • Thunderstorm

      Look up the water shed areas for the north,middle and south forks of the Feather River and see what the totals come up to. May be much higher.

      • Admode (Susanville)

        Don’t forget the west branch.

  • SacWx

    Euro shows 10 day totals of well over 100 inches of snow in the sierra passes.

    • TahoeCard

      Does it have snow levels any lower than GFS?

      • SacWx

        Looks to be about the same. Starts high, but drops to I think around the 5500-6000 ft level. Not sure I buy that its going to drop to <5000 ft

  • Cap’n
    • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

      I first read the “bullseye” as 4.5 inches, and said to myself, “ah, not so bad…” Then I saw the “1”.

      So bad.

      • Tangocity

        What lake does that 14.5 area drain into? Dare I ask!!?

        • Thunderstorm

          Almanor Lake which is 96% full. Has not contributed to runoff into lake Oroville yet. Is on the north fork of the Feather River. I guess Oroville will up the outflow down the main spillway to prevent the emergency spillway from failing. No possible way the e-spillway will hold up.

          • Siernev

            Lassen Volcanic NP is split between the Pit, Sacramento, and North Fork Feather (Lk Almanor) watersheds. It all ends up in the Sacramento eventually, of course, but only some flows down into Lk Oroville.

            Regardless, a buttload of precip is gonna fall on the Feather watershed over the next several days.

          • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

            One thing to remember about the Almanor watershed is that it is fairly far east and is shadowed somewhat by the northern Sierra/Cascade crest. Lake Helen, as AL mentioned, is a very deep snow course and at one time ( and might still ) hold the record for the deepest ever recorded manual measurement in the U.S. However, Lake Helen snow course is only representative of 6% of the entire Almanor watershed, the rest of which is relatively lower and dryer. Yes Alamnor is fairly full and only has around 120,000 available storage remaining so it will be interesting how this plays out. DWR forecasters compute runoff in “natural flow”, e.g. as if no upstream dams exist, and then coordinate with upstream storage operators as to what their storage and what their release schedule will be. So this type of thing is happening simultaneously for all of the watersheds across the state feeding into the system. There is a lot effort that goes into their forecasting. I might add that additional work is also done not only on the long range forecast ( the process mentioned above), but on a day like today with a storm on the horizon, I’m sure deterministic models are cranking out a miriad of hydrologic scenarios of what might possibly happen over the next week. It is a very complex thing…

        • AlTahoe

          That is usually Lake Helen right next to Mt Lassen and one of the snowiest spots in the US

          • SeymourB

            Very little drains into Lake Helen, relatively, because it’s so high up and right near the top of the ridge.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        That point is Lassen Peak perhaps?

        • Crank Tango

          Yeah I was just gonna say that.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like 8.9″ on the ridge line of the Santa Ynez.

      • alanstorm

        There’s where the flash-flooding & mudslides will be.

    • Crank Tango

      Sacred diminutive bovine!

  • Charlie B

    February 15, 1952. Is the storm king awakening from a mid winter snooze?
    Sacramento barometer is 30.25 and steady. Weak storms have been unable to advance to the coast. Little change today and tomorrow but a storm may arrive over the weekend with a chance for rain and snow. Freezing levels are 4,000′. Snow depths: Norden 174; Donner Summit 162; and Echo Summit 151. All trans Sierra roads are open and clear. [Ed. I has now been several weeks…almost a month… since the intense January 1952 blizzards. There has been only one weak storm of any note during that time. Such a lull is commonplace even in epic winters. We really haven’t had one yet in 2016-17, at least a statewide one].
    In other news (and proof that there is nothing new under the sun)….
    A cook in San Francisco runs wild with a gun, killing self and 5 others. No motive is given. In international news, a terrorist in Iran wounds an aide to Iranian premiere Mohmmad Mossadegh, shouting “there is no God but Allah” in the process. The terrorist group Fedayau Islam claims responsibility.

  • BRP (Ventura)

    OK, it’s on. Lake Casitas is currently at 37.6% full (empty), Oxnard NWS has posted predicted rainfall for the Casitas Watershed at 4.75″, will we see 40%, 45% or maybe 50% capacity by Sunday morning’s reading???

    • Tangocity

      Maybe we will see some RVs washed into the pacific ocean again.

      • John Curtis

        Classic. March, 91 right?

        • BRP (Ventura)

          RV’s, couches, bikes, hobos, you name it, everything went down the VTA river in 91 & 95 & 98 & even 2005 and 2011! Come on 2017, flush out our filthy river, I promise not to enter for 72 hours! LOL

          • John Curtis

            My mom recalls watching houses float down the Ventura River during the ’69 floods.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      I’d say 50% by Monday morning. Give it some time to get in there.

      • John Curtis

        Cachuma should do pretty well with this storm. Murietta Divide, in Matilija Canyon is the split between water going to Cachuma and water going to Casitas.

        • CanyonKid

          Jameson Lake directly in the middle.

          • sectionmaker

            and the new Lake Miramar down in the Montecito flats…

    • John Curtis

      Wouldn’t that be great! The Casitas Watershed is Coyote and Santa Ynez creek. Don’t forget that 6-8″ may fall in Matilija Canyon and Ventura River headwaters that will be big time feeder.

      • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

        Typical Southern California trying to steal our news headlines.

        • John Curtis

          News headlines?? In today’s age, news headlines have a shelf life of 24 hours. Hate to say it, but people have already forgotten about your dam.

          • Lake Oroville Spillway Nemesis

            Well at least I finish my sentences.

    • RunningSprings6250

      That would be 62.4% empty. ?

  • John Curtis

    Enjoy this storm everyone!! It’s been a long time coming for So Cal.

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Here’s the 18z 4km NAM. Given how the system takes on a negative tilt, it looks like the rain won’t start in San Diego County until the overnight hours Friday night.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/898b97196fdfb5c2c41187c87697be8027f4f9f60ddc96e3ef9558f8c89e772a.gif

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      I’ve been on these forums since 2014 and never have I ever seen a storm hit Pt Conception to Camarillo so hard.

      edit: in models this close

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Yup. Sure hope this verifies or the comments section here will be unbearable. 😉

        • RunningSprings6250

          Moreso than dam talk? ??

      • mosedart (SF)

        Well in all fairness there’s only been a handful of storms down there since 2014

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Overnight hours? Noooooooo. 🙁 Does the negative tilt also mean potentially higher totals for us?

      • DelMarSD

        I’m betting there’ll be lots of post-frontal showers during the day on Saturday.

        • Tangocity

          Hoping kids soccer gets cancelled in Del Mar this Saturday. Going to be an awful commute and awful time sitting in the rain and mud.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Gimme snow!!!

    • Cactus on a Boat

      I noticed that 18z NAM has shifted the heaviest precipitation somewhat further East and South compared to previous runs. Just something to note.

      • DelMarSD

        Well I’m glad it’s been shifted to the east a bit.

        • Cactus on a Boat

          Maybe it will shift even more East/South, and then maybe I can make use of my boat 🙂

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        Does it maybe have to do with what Daniel mentioned when the models can’t handle the high coastal ranges in SB and make it look like it is hitting the channel rather than the coast?

    • Sokafriend

      That’s what the MEt is showing, too.

    • Craig Matthews

      Santa Barbara to Thousand Oaks looks to get washed away by that…wow. Looks like the NAM has deviated somewhat with the track of the surface Low, as it keeps it further offshore of central coast.

  • Pfirman

    @Ben. You will find the photos you wanted, and some others you may marvel at also, in the following link. Sorry, I had no time yesterday to look for this. If by Humboldt you mean Eureka, then I will make every effort to collect the beer come summer.
    Plus I discovered my account was private, and I hate that practice, ironically.

    http://www.nbclosangeles.com/multimedia/Oroville-Dam-Flooding-History-California-Water-Reservoir-Photos-413590093.html

    • Yolo Hoe

      I thought I recalled that you did and was puzzled — GREAT information in that link — thanks!!

  • Fairweathercactus

    Models are trending a little more north today. Looks like parts of LA county might miss the best juice.

    • Cactus on a Boat

      Don’t loose hope just yet, it can still change, we still got some time 🙂

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Sure your not the “storm meiser” in disguise?

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)
      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)
        • DManSA

          If you compare the total precipitation from now until next Tuesday the total precipitation in SoCal has dropped considerably with each run. It has risen significantly in the north.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)
          • Nathan

            that’s….pretty consistent actually.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            There’s a bit of a dip but I think it may have more to do with the fact we are not getting a parade of storms but rather the one big one. Someone that actually understands this probably could weigh in a bit better. I just know how to look at pretty colors.

          • sectionmaker

            especially the purple ones over Santa Barbara…kinda weird that the storms have been just moving from drought area to drought area, getting them filled up. Next up, the inland areas and deserts!!!….(maybe this summer)

          • gray whale

            coooool — did you make that gif yourself or is that a feature on TT that I’ve never noticed?

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            It is on TT “Trend Gif”

          • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

            That’s pretty cool. Never seen that before. Thanks for sharing

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            Yep, it is fun to see the variability!

          • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

            Or, in the case of the 00z timestep for Saturday , the virtual lack of variability.

          • DManSA

            When I say SoCal I am thinking more OC and South Eastern LA county. From Los Angeles City south. Not so much Ventura and Santa Barbara.

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            True, total precip after the Fri/Sat system has dropped considerably. Probably because the Mon/Tues system has been removed by Oxnard and models have trended drier next week. However, things will change to a wetter pattern in my view.

          • Yolo Hoe

            I guess we should never underestimate Storm master’s ability to see forward

          • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

            Didn’t he say our Fri/Sat storm would move north away from SoCal because the models did it once before? I don’t think that has anything to do with “ability to see forward.”

        • RunningSprings6250

          I like it.

  • Thunderstorm

    People gotta know by now that things are not good in the central valley. So much more rain to come. Howard’s blog today a direct quote, “Expect massive amplification week two with another big upper high over Alaska. You know what that means. Almost every dam and lake will now have to release water.

    • Danlyle (Mariposa)

      Check this out, condierring snow pack/WC is ahead of 1982/83 levels. An excerpt from a 2/13/97 article in the LA Times “Phantom’ Tulare Lake Comes Back to Life”

      “…on the Kings River, 10,000 acre-feet a day is diverted away from the Tulare Lake basin into the San Joaquin River.

      The federal government mandates these diversions even when farms and towns along the San Joaquin face their own flooding. It is all dictated by an agreement reached between Boswell and the Army Corps of Engineers a half century ago. By helping pay for the construction of Pine Flat Dam on the Kings River, the Boswell empire forever guaranteed flood control protection in all but the worst of winters.”

      Old-timers here recall one such winter in 1969. The waves from the
      lake carried such force that Boswell had to buttress the levees with
      pancaked cars from a wrecking yard.

      “During the last big flood, in 1983, the lake grew to nearly twice this size and it took two years for us to drain all the water,” Wilcox said.”

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Made it back to Truckee today, drive past Baxter as the last cars were being let through before closing 80WB again because of the slide. Yuba wasn’t running as high as I had thought it would be, but the snow around Blue Canyon is way down, still big walls of snow higher up the mountain around the summit. Digging out from the wet heavy snow isn’t too fun. And it wasn’t kind at all to my Bloomsky, found parts of it in the snow and other parts are still missing not to be found until the Summer melt off, probably in August this year the way things are going.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fec66150388cb0e164645438b71758bd1f60560a5b04dc0b1fe3ce9d8c6e76c8.jpg

    • Yolo Hoe

      What’s your thinking as to their ability to keep iI-80 open Friday – Sunday (obviously selfishly speaking)?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        I think it should be OK, my worry is/would be the slides and if that Baxter slide keeps moving we could be looking at a nightmare drive back come Monday. And you know 3/4 of the people won’t be paying attention to either the road report or the weather report so they’ll be in total shock with whatever happens.

        • Yolo Hoe

          Thanks — yep, we will come back Sunday for sure — Monday will be chaos

  • SacWx

    I’m happy for all of the LA people getting rain. I lived there from 2012 through mid-2016 and have first hand experience on just how miserable that place can be during a drought. The dust, smog, and other air pollutants definitely impacted my health. After a nice rain though, it’s actually close to livable.

    • Tangocity

      Yeah, it’s almost as livable as Sacramento.

      • Charlie B

        But not as nice as Oroville.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Thank goodness for the Delta Breeze

  • AlTahoe

    From another forum today

    “Also, while it’s still early, we’ve observed a gradual equatorward retraction of the Pacific/Indo Hadley Cell (finally!!) over the last ~8 months and a corresponding reduction in the off-equator forcing integral. So rolling forward, assuming this continues (reflection the expected system response to the approaching solar minimum), you’ll have to watch for a flip in the North Pacific Oscillation and polar background state (NAM) at some point over the 10-15 months.”

    Maybe with the reduction of the Hadley cell we are on a path to wetter winters for the next few years?

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Sure hope so. I believe more than anything the Hadley Cell set-up to our southwest had a major affect on the Godzilla El Nino washout for us here in SoCal.

    • Yolo Hoe

      CHeden brought up the possibility of a ‘base change’ a while back — maybe, hopefully………..

    • Craig Matthews

      Yeah hopefully this trend will last for a while. Not getting ahead here, but next winter could be real interesting as well if El Nino conditions develop in conjunction with a -QBO which could also mean another winter of high latitude NPac blocking and stronger sub tropical jet punching thru underneath the block into west coast. There is also the projection for cooling in the upper troposphere over the equatorial/tropical zones, which could also increase potential for convection over the central-eastern equatorial pacific if an el nino is to develop, which in conjunction with the contraction of the Hadley cell could help make for another wet winter esp socal.

  • Craig Matthews

    I’m adjusting/correcting my barometers for storm #2, as models continue to suggest a very deep surface Low right off central coast sometime Friday. Lowest barometer reading I’ve ever seen on Big Sur coast was 28.85 in late Jan 2010.

    • Sokafriend

      Hi Craig- nice to hear from you. Last night I saw a comment in WPC discussion that record breaking low pressure is expected.

      • Craig Matthews

        Yep the latest models are continuing to show a 984 to 987mb Low right off the coast up here.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        Say, Sokafriend…….how are the Mexican agencies preparing for what looks like a major flooding event there in Baja?

        • Sokafriend

          Well, no local advice so far other than rain and winds. We have to wait for local authorities to issue a heads up. But here’s the hourly accumulated through Saturday at 5:00. Model
          should be updated later this afternoon. Seems that from this side they are forecasting rain starting tomorrow night.
          http://met-wrf.cicese.mx/WRF/D03/P01M/animacion_wrf_p01m_d03.gif

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            I like how the most intense rain is color-coded black, as if it’s the Angel of Death descending upon the land…

  • SloTruckeeJohn

    I’m sure Craig is familiar with this blog page but for anyone else that is interested here’s a great resource for photos and info on the Big Sur coast:

    https://bigsurkate.wordpress.com/

  • RunningSprings6250

    Oh sweet mama we got ourselves a winter storm watch!

    I think a setup like this has huge potential to overperform…

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Hope you guys get inundated. Estimates are around 18″ above 8k here in L.A. County.

      Oxnard just issued a FFW for Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties………..duh.

    • Aloha12

      So what are seeing (or thinking) for Friday’s snow levels?

      • RunningSprings6250

        It’s gonna be a teeth clencher watching snow levels drop but I expect to go to sleep Friday night with rain and it switch overnight to wake up to snow Saturday morning eventually dropping to around 5k. How much snow I could only guess…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      If that thing tracks a little more East as opposed to sliding down into Baja on Saturday evening, lookout!

  • AlTahoe

    Not sure how the Monday-Tuesday storm went from a cold core low sliding down the coast with 5k snow levels to a pineapple express in the last day but it keeps trending warmer. Snow levels look to be at least 7500′ during the main event. At this rate we will be lucky to see any snow at lake level until Wednesday. The winter of rain continues.

    • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

      check out my post be low monday-tusday storm is the wettest run by far

      • weathergeek100

        He’s not talking about how wet the run has gotten, he’s talking about temperatures…how warm it’s gotten.

    • Thunderstorm

      The MJO has contributed tremendous warm moist air.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I think that one will actually end up going much farther South and missing NorCal. I’ve seen that happen before.

  • Nate

    Here’s the 18z 3km NAM total precip accumulation through late Friday (not the whole storm). They’re higher than the 4km totals, but that’s because the higher-res picks up more of the orographics, so we should be looking at double digit totals across the Traverse Ranges by Sunday. The 3km has been doing a really good job lately–I think it’s all grown up! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cc7f63b5a495d6e5a92282b0a08880378b6a3629c9d1c25dd8d23150987c33e4.png

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      I think that is showing the 12″ at the San Marcos pass that RunningSprings predicted…

      • Tangocity

        That’s too much rain all at once. Pick your poison… half full lake(s) or roads that aren’t washed out. See you later roads!

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          The roads up there are pretty solid. We will see. The scary thing is all the tourists who skip the 101 on Friday night because of the 3 day weekend and end up at the top in a massive down pour.

          • Tangocity

            Paradise Road will probably get partially washed out.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            Has that happened historically? I’ve only lived here 10 years.

          • celo

            We used to get 12″ San Marcos Pass Storms in the 90s quite often. 2004-5 had 9.36 on jan 9th and 7.89 on Jan 10th.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            How did the road hold up?

          • celo

            Sorry that I don’t remember

      • celo

        I think Cachuma Lake doubles in size by this time next week if the storm varifies. 70k acre feet and will continue to grow

        • Tangocity

          is Gibralter Reservior full upstream from Cachuma?

          • celo

            Yes

      • Cachuma Abedin

        Just checked my e-mail and got an alert that yes – rain is coming for my beloved lake.

    • SeymourB

      HermitCrab is right in the bullseye this time! 🙂

      • Crank Tango

        I hope she got that roof leak fixed!

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    with monday-tusday storm being much warmer now this may be come a issue for Lake Oroville

    • John

      I don’t think it will be. They know the main spillway isn’t becoming further damaged, so they will keep cranking the water out of there at the rate they are doing now.

      • Thunderstorm

        What will change is the water from Lake Almanor will greatly increase inflow the inflow to Oroville. Has not contributed as yet but is at 96% of capacity. Almanor is on the north fork of the Feather River.

        • John

          Good call. We shall see.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          It is curious how the hydro dams fit into the run off planning. Similar on the San Joaquin. All the hydro dams seem to just do their thing and when they fill-up, watch out below!

  • Cap’n

    Get them sand bags out Al. At least it’s depicting a good snow storm Tuesday and Wednesday. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/87d207edbd595afeeb51506a689482603029a93dbb49532618bb7b06e8820f8b.png

    • AlTahoe

      Yep we went from “The snow levels wont be a concern with these upcoming storms” to more warm rains. Maybe it will be like the last storm where they hovered around 6700′ even though the GFS depicted them at 7500′

      • TahoeCard

        To my untrained eye, the 18z is an improvement on the 12z. The 540 line gets much closer to Tahoe by Monday night whereas the 12z, we missed out (snow) on the entire Monday storm. Tell me if I’m wrong. First time I’m looking at these details.

        • AlTahoe

          The main front has us between the 552 and 558 lines which are really warm. Once the front passes the 540 line shows up.

          • TahoeCard

            I know but it looks like we finish with snow on the 18z.

  • Nookx-Weather

    It’s funny how I’m not that excited because we don’t have any forecasted daily totals above 2inches here in placerville

  • bk2ftr (Atascadero)

    High wind watch is out for Friday’s storm. Gusts 60-70 mph for SLO and SB counties.

  • ThomTissy

    Please, SoCal, take our rain. We do not want any more in the Bay Area and north.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Make that non-Bay Area valleys. I am sure most of the peninsula, South Bay, and central valley want more rain.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      We’re trying. So far I have 18.24″ compared to 4.45″ this time last year. Working with Mother Nature to help us out has been difficult.

    • janky

      Agreed.

  • ConcepcionImmaculadaPantalones

    Well, I have my sandbags at the ready just in case, didn’t feel like waiting around till it started raining later this week/end to do it.

    • Tangocity

      Mine have already been put into place.

      • ConcepcionImmaculadaPantalones

        The ones out back are in place, just not the ones for outside the front door. I’ve done the grocery shopping for humans and dog, so I’m ready for it to rain. 😛

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    The first Flash Flood Watch has been posted by NWS Oxnard. Probably the first of many advisories and warnings over the next couple of days.

    https://twitter.com/AnthonyNBCLA/status/831989907027480576

    • CanyonKid

      4-8″ in one day makes me glad SB is on the edge of this monster.

      • Yeah, the folks in Santa Barbara and Ventura look like they are going to get nailed. That’s a lot of rain for areas not used to that much. Stay aware folks, don’t get caught in a bad situation. For once I will be happy I am not in the bulls eye with this storm.

    • scott

      After these storms pass it will be exciting to see how it impacts the drought status of Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. 8 inches goes really far this south. Goodbye reds and hello yellows and maybe even some white areas on that map.

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    Nice inclusion in the newest NWS SD update: “A slight chance of thunderstorms was added along the coast late Friday and to about the southern 2/3 of the area for Saturday as the upper low moves overhead or close by. Instability will be increasing then as we transition from widespread rain to a showery/convective nature.”

  • SeymourB

    I’ve been plotting Lake Oroville’s height and height change since they opened things up the other day, and while it’s not quite a linear drop, it’s fairly close. It also looks like the rate of change has mostly leveled out in the last day, so unless the shape of the lake is really different, or the inflow drops suddenly today, I think this is a pretty good indicator of where things will stand once the rains start up again.

    I wonder if they’ll open the main spillway up even more if the inflow spikes, or if they’ll let it overflow the emergency spillway again, trusting that the reinforcements they made will hold?

    https://i.imgur.com/vZnUJ22.png

    • Doug Carlisle

      I think they will be extremely wary of letting the spillway overtop again – they were within an hour of losing the entire structure. Even the minimal flow of 12,000 CFS created serious, near catastrophic erosion over about 24 hours.

      • mogden

        Totally agree. That emergency spillway isn’t going to see another drop unless the main spillway erodes much closer to the top.

      • BobKatopolis

        I think they will have completed a fairly substantial armoring of the first 100 feet of hillside downstream of the emergency spillway before it would possibly need to be used again. We’re talking about a thick, solid concrete pad, with heavy rocks in all of the ravines where the water runs off below that. If it needs to be used again, it will be more than ready. Of course, this should have been done (along with a full concrete channel to take the water down to the Thermalito Diversion Pool) many years ago.

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          Would love to find out how much all of this will cost, including the repairs they will do in the summer. I’m betting that it won’t be that much more compared to had this been planned out ahead of time and yet will probably take one 100 of the time to complete. Not saying there is not a place for environmental reviews and regulations, but the speed of the repair may show that we’ve gone a little overboard in California…

        • weatherhead

          I just can’t imagine that repairs done in such haste will not have weaknesses in them. If the main spillway which was fairly smooth eroded, how well is this bumpy patch job on the e-spillway going to hold? And I remember there was signs that there was seepage from beneath the parking lot, which did not bode well. This is a slow motion train wreck.

    • mattzweck

      i still think the lake oroville spill way will collapse.

      • mbmattcor (TD 6400′)

        The only thing saving it is, the change in pitch on the spillway. So the water gets thrown a long distance now and it’s not eating itself as much.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          Maybe a steel ramp at the end to launch water even further would be a quick temporary remedy to continued headcutting. Have to shut it off for a minute to afix it.

          • roseland67

            I thoughta Steel plate across the spillway hole would have been tried

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            Well that was a large hole.

      • Aussie Joe

        Be more specific and heed the request not to speculate. In the absence of marked additional erosion of the main spillway, DWP will do whatever they can to prevent lake level approach the 901′ level again.

      • SeymourB

        I don’t think it will in the coming week.

        Not enough liquid water is forecast to drop in the watershed.

        Of course, that could change, but right now, it looks fairly safe.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Barometer at 29.98 and dropping rapidly here in Davis — heading out for last bike ride in dry conditions for awhile

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I was impressed with the current rolling through the bypass. Looks like there’s still plenty of more room for inflow though so that’s good.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Yep, there’s still some headspace

    • Yolo Hoe

      Very angry sky indeed — actually two upside down

    • RunningSprings6250

      I figured it out the other day – when your phone is vertical, turn it horizontal so the top is on your left, if the top is to the right the photo will be ‘upside down’.

      • I did an experiment before your reply to get to the bottom of this once and for all – I’m hoping your recommendation rings true because this is just stupid. Been uploading on discus for years and this problem just appeared one day, didn’t change phones…

  • Thunderstorm

    70F now SF bay area and the GOA low still over the Aleutian Islands. Not seeing any cold air anywhere.

    • inclinejj

      77.4 in Pacifica yesterday. 73 today!

    • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

      Only went up to 68F totday.

    • Joey B. (Lafayette)

      Only got to 61 in Lafayette.

  • mattzweck

    I guess socal has a chance of rain starting Thursday and lasting to at least tue.

  • Cap’n

    I have never seen NOAA give themselves so much margin for error for so many different storm systems. A day before the event and they are still leaving snow levels up in limbo by the degree 1,000-1,500 feet. Same with the Sunday night – Monday system. Kind of a win win for them and covering all bases. Multiple systems this year they’ve done this. I’ve always said that the Sierra has some of the hardest snow levels to predict, especially at the sensitive elevation that Tahoe and Truckee sit, but this is getting ridiculous. For what it’s worth, which isn’t much, WeatherDotWrong is all in for snow through Wednesday and a lot of it.

    So basically, flip a coin on whether it rains or snows tomorrow. Glad we have made such progress in weather predictions.

    • Drew Stofflet

      Heads

    • Pfirman

      What you get for living on the edge. Down here flipping is not an option, whether coin or rain to snow or vice versa.

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    Area Forecast Discussion
    National Weather Service Sacramento CA
    335 PM PST Wed Feb 15 2017

    A more substantial system arrives late Sunday night/early Monday,
    coupled with a fairly strong moisture plume. This looks like the
    wettest storm of the forecast period, though compared to the
    storms of last week this will be a much less impressive system.
    Liquid equivalent amounts of 3 to 6 inches are possible over the
    mountains, around 1 to 2 inches in the Valley. There is some model
    disagreement as to where the main brunt of the storm will be
    focused, north of I80 over the Feather River Basin (GFS) or south
    of it (ECMWF) & (GEM)

    am going with the ECMWF and GEM camp on this one

  • Storm Master (Sonora CA)

    pleace your bets on what the drought monitor will look like with this thursday forecast

    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/MapsAndData/MapArchive.aspx

    • CanyonKid

      SB/VTA will not be out of the drought, I would bet in that.

    • roseland67

      How do they measure the depth or recovery of the aquifers?

      • PRCountyNative

        Do they? Curious…

        Aquifer depletion is happening independent of drought or not.

        Sadly, I suspect it gets glossed over, a new baseline is established; it is inconvenient to our society to be reminded it is destroying the basis of its own existence, the future.

        • PRCountyNative

          OK – good link below:

          http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

          You can actually learn stuff here!

          So now the question is: Is groundwater synonymous with aquifers? I don’t think so… I still think aquifer depletion is an inconvenient truth that gets left out.

          • Pfirman

            Please explain what you think the distinction is. No, I have not read your link yet, but a few words would be great.

          • PRCountyNative

            So the question was – “Are aquifers considered in the drought monitor graphic/analysis?”

            The link discusses the criteria. As almost an afterwards, they stated that ‘groundwater’ is considered.

            Thus my question – is groundwater the same as aquifers?

            My guess is no. You can have high or low groundwater independent of aquifers. There aren’t aquifers everywhere. There is, in a sense, groundwater everywhere.

            yes I know solid bedrock does not have a lot of ‘groundwater’ but that’s an exception.

            Because of the slow recharge rate (as high as ‘Never’) of aquifers, I think you can have high groundwater and low aquifers. See ‘central valley of CA’ right now, for example.

            Soil saturation and depleted aquifers can coexist temporally and geographically (same time same place).

            Places would always be in drought that would never lift, if aquifers were truly factored in. Again – see central valley CA, and every other important agricultural region of earth (I suspect).

            The ground reaches saturation, that is a ‘groundwater’ measurement. Aquifers may exist then and there or not, they may be full or depleted. Drought is only a partial factor therein, if at all.

            It may be the case where it has not rained for years, you are feeling drought, on top of a massive full aquifer. It’s still a drought if you don’t have access to the aquifer.

          • Pfirman

            Thanks. Well said. Quite clear.

        • roseland67

          So…..
          You don’t know either?

  • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)
  • Will have a new blog post either late this evening or tomorrow morning.

    • BigBearHiking

      Voting for this evening 😀

    • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

      How will Lake Cachuma handle all of this rain coming?

      • Aussie Joe

        I would hope it exceeds 40% full by months end.

      • RunningSprings6250

        On knees with wide open mouth.

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Uh, that’s probably not the best way to characterize it.

          • RunningSprings6250

            If I was Cachuma I’d be on my knees praying for rain!

      • Cachuma Abedin

        Hoping there are no leaks!

    • Charlie B

      13 words, 16 up votes. Nice ratio.

      • Bombillo1

        Economical.

  • BigBearHiking

    Still trying to decide if I am driving up to Big Bear before all the crazies go there on Friday or if I stay put in Claremont, which will mean just rain for a few days

    • RunningSprings6250

      BEFORE!!!!

      • BigBearHiking

        That’s what the dogs have been saying too

        • RunningSprings6250

          Always listen to the dogs, lol.

  • I know this thing isn’t accurate…but it still made a me do a double take. Snow managers are breaking into cold sweats evraywhurr. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8557f3d7b8c6fea5262c17251e0eaaf40b88536ca8ec1b9f864e285243c2b2b3.jpg

    • Cap’n

      It has big snow numbers for Truckee as well. Either there will be rain, a rain/snow mix, or snow over the next several days. A win win for NOAA, all bases covered.

      • AlTahoe

        NWS Reno is going with 7k for Monday’s storm with a plus minus of 1000′ feet. So either 6k, 7k, or 8k.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Add in it’s a holiday weekend and the road issues on 80…expect a crazy few days.

    • Bombillo1

      And the snow removal budget for 2 years has already been shot. No small factor. The ski lodge at Mt. Lassen went broke due to the 17 mile private road leading to the park needing to be kept open and serviceable during the winter. Fleets of heavy equipment needing to roll every day.

  • RunningSprings6250

    There hasn’t been anywhere near enough dam talking around here today. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1e07ca2b15a79a6cc9860f2b7ae783c10987827c25617d401ddf10e08bf00a10.jpg

    • Aussie Joe

      Here is a link to a blog devoted specifically to the progression (or not) of this hole. Seems stable for now at just below level of the towers (i.e. spot where angle changes significantly on main spillway). This is good news..

      https://www.metabunk.org/oroville-dam-main-spillway-waterfall-erosion-watch.t8402/#post-200605

      • RunningSprings6250

        It’s going to go on for several months, I was being sarcastic ???

        • Aussie Joe

          Just trying to redirect folks if they are interested so we can focus on the incoming active weather.

          BTW do you expect snow or rain at your elevation this weekend?

          • RunningSprings6250

            Ah, Point well taken and a big ??!

            The dreaded ‘starting as rain’ and eventually, hopefully switching to snow. The WSW calls for 3″-7″ snow at my elevation after the switch….It wouldn’t surprise me if we well overperform in the snow dept!

          • Aussie Joe

            Yep, here’s to more snow and fewer mudslides!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It’s a dam mess.

    • Crank Tango

      Personally, I love the solutions that involve a time machine.

      • ConcepcionImmaculadaPantalones

        It’s a police box, thank you very much. And quite environmentally friendly! 😛

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    I know it’s only February, and the Spring Predictability Barrier is months away, but I like to stir the pot. Does this Niño 3.4 Anomaly Plot look sorta familiar?

    https://twitter.com/RobElvington/status/832047045582032896

    • RSpringbok

      In the past, there would be a 3 or 4 year pause after a major El Nino until the next El Nino. It would seem unusual to have another El Nino with only a one year pause after a major one.

      • Vary rare to have a SEN , then a weak La Niña followed my a moderate +ENSO.

      • Bombillo1

        7 years typically between el ninos. The exceptional ++ el nino 15 years or more. A 12 month hiatus and reforming a moderate el nino almost unheard of, correcto?

        • RSpringbok

          That’s what I’m thinking. Maybe this gives credence to the theory that El Nino is the Pacific ocean’s mechanism to shed extra heat caused by AGW, e.g., as global warming accelerates El Ninos will become more common.

          • Pfirman

            So Gaia has a ploy?

    • VK (Sacramento)

      If the prediction verifies, it will be nice to have just an average rainfall year 🙂

  • Jockman

    Weather Underground predicting over 5 inches on Friday for Hollywood Hills. You guys think that this is correct? Kind of hard to believe. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/33a8d893a4fdbe5a90413ff8cbde0a93844f777cf536652a1835da00f7e23c6d.png

    • Crank Tango

      What does NWS say? I wouldn’t believe WU, but still be prepared, wax the kayak, etc.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      It’s a strong possibility. The strong S/SE flow will create a huge orographic lifting event for south facing hills and mountain slopes.

      Currently NWS is calling for 2-4″ in the coastal flatlands and 4-6″ in the foothills, including your area.

      • Jockman

        My elevation is only 650′. But they’re forecasting almost an inch more at my location over 24 hours than they are for downtown LA.

        • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

          If you’re on the southside of the hills, it will definitely add to the precip amounts compared to the flats. This is a very dynamic system, so you can expect torrential downpours if it develops as weather models forecast.

      • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

        Right! I bet the rain totals are going to be super massive in the SFV as well! I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Van Nuys get a 5-6 inch total and that is INSANE for SoCal standards! Or anywhere for that matter considering the short amount of time the rain will fall! Man oh man how I wish I could be down there for that storm! But I’m up here now! While I will be getting more rain in general I will miss the summer monsoon and those random torrential downpours in Van Nuys!

        • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

          Not to worry Tyler. Your SoCal brethren will no doubt keep you informed with pics and comments on Friday/Sat, hopefully, without any major flood damage.

        • Jockman

          Tyler I work in Van Nuys. Even that storm a couple of weeks ago flooded many streets. Wonder if they might have to use the Sepulveda basin Friday/Saturday?

          • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

            Not a sliver of doubt in my mind that they will close the basin down.. given the high impact of this storm I wouldn’t be sunrises if they closed off Burbank Blvd. and other streets susceptible to flooding near the basin BEFORE the heavy rains even begin.. that would be the smart thing to do considering it’s a sure thing that the heavy rains will come at some point in Friday.. if i were in charge there at the army corps I would have the sheriff close off roads near the basin first thing Friday morning to save themselves a headache and resources having to pull somebody out of their car that gets stuck in flood waters..

          • Jockman

            I drive through the basin on Burbank/Woodley on my way to the office on days when the 101 Northbound isn’t busy. I guess I’ll be taking Victory Blvd. on Friday! (if I go to work at all)

          • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

            I lived a mere 2 miles or less from the basin on van nuys and Oxnard.

          • Pfirman

            Victory means no work on Friday of upcoming weekend.

    • RunningSprings6250

      When ALL the forecasting tools point to a certain outcome this close to happening, it’s kinda what they have to go with.

      We shall find out very soon!

    • Dan weather maniac

      That does seem crazy but I think it’s indicative of what has been happening all season, mostly from big sur north

      If this verifies it will bring so cal into the general chaos we have seen up north for a while now

      It’s a mixed blessing for sure

      • Jockman

        I think I might stay home from work on Friday to guard my house!

    • Jeff

      yeah, looks like you guys are in the bullseye there!

      san diego has been dropping the past few days but now has gone back up a little since this morning
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f83b97a70ac92e16d8f6573b96214f4417f512a67139a558893adeb7213ca0db.jpg

      • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

        It is. 1.4 is still a respectable amount of rain in a day. Ground is still saturated so maybe it’s for the best at the moment. Still a lot of season left ;).

    • Malibu is also looking at over 5″, too. Wasn’t sure I believed it.

    • Bombillo1

      That is mind blowing. In your lifetime have you ever seen a 24 hr rain expectation even half that?

      • Jockman

        Nope. (And I’m OLD!) I remember a lot of flooding in LA and the suburbs when I was a kid in the 50s & 60s though. (before they built some of the flood control channels)

  • RSpringbok

    For all you Oro-holics out there: here are some photos taken at human eye level of the spillway and gates. It really gives perspective of how massive this infrastructure is:

    https://imgur.com/gallery/lVQwz#6eSX5Sc

    • Phil(ontario)

      The dam was just on world news. “Environmentalists warned about erosion issues 10 years ago. Lots of rocks being brought in as a temporary fix and the permanent solution can cost 200 million dollars this summer.”

      • RSpringbok

        I’m thinking the 100k cfs on the main spillway has done them a favor. It has scoured out everything loose and only the best bedrock is exposed. Now you have something for rocks and concrete to key into, then rebuild the spillway on top of it.

        • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

          That sounds reasonable.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          Any placer gold downstream? That is a big hydraulic mining operation.

          • Cachuma Abedin

            They came out with a movie about gold mining a few years back but it was panned by the critics.

          • Bombillo1

            But garnered a golden globe.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            The PUNdits have spoken. Nice,

    • Jockman

      Awesome pics. Glad I clicked your link. Those spillway gates are massive. Thanks for sharing.

    • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

      Very nice for perspective. Thanks!

    • SloTruckeeJohn

      Fantastic pictures, thanks for posting.

    • Cachuma Abedin

      Who would have known that a little dam could hold all that water – very impressive

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    To add to what Crashing posted…E-Weather app (which I’ve had good luck with) shows snow for the next week in Truckee. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/34ea138ba346d26273df10102bdf1be134efa8588e51f8f611f0c0953a9e8d36.png

    • Chatman

      Love the graphics…too bad it’s a Russian app…

  • Wind has seriously picked up here.

    • JT (San Jose, CA)

      Warmer than usual too…

  • Yolo Hoe

    Davis temperature 56F, winds calm and barometer slowly falling at 29.95.

    A few pics from bike ride: ominous western sky on top of verdant pastures — walnut orchard near Winters looking like a Civil War battlefield — a sign that speaks for all of NorCal at this point, and SoCal too within a few days — Putah Creek looking brown and awaiting additional surge from the Glory Hole at Monticello Dam that will likely start spilling this Saturday — 2006 being the last time this happened.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3cfcff1c0ac529bb657825cde9fa4e74178f32b7bc8c89dc4669e709aa4a0421.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba43e1f081a8974f6124ee106893990474a5c0cf36284e20cf4eb058b284e05f.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1be10702c039c8ebb0d22d9401d7b7fe4c0edaf4d26cd3bdd9e2062e4066cd30.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ffdc5647fa35c3c8aa7258fedd6f27aea46728b59c044b381bfa70b59357753.jpg

    • Cachuma Abedin

      I used to live in Davis. The local ag extension always told us that walnuts were the first crop not to be grown in California until they were grown here – amazing what this state has accomplished with its agriculture.

      • Pfirman

        That is ethnocentric. Betting the Spanish planted cactus grapes, herbs, etc. that were not indigenous, among other possibilities, that were not here before.

        • Bombillo1

          Who was the cretin that brought over the blackberries?

  • Humboldt_ARk

    Once again, all eyes on the 0z gfs for Socal and Oroville.

    • Humboldt_ARk

      Its currently initializing at a snails pace, go gfs go!

      • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

        WOW, just wow for Ventura on the latest run

        • Cornholemaster (Ventura)
          • Humboldt_ARk

            Wow! Thats an insane amount of rainfall even for us!!!

          • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

            One of my nerd (and I use that term lovingly) friends who spends more time at this than I do thinks this is even underdone. He’s thinking the negative tilt will not only slow things down, but bring them to a complete halt. “Shades of La Conchita” he said.

          • Humboldt_ARk

            I agree, i believe the potential for the main slug of heavy rainfall to completely stall for an extended period of time coupled with the intense orographic enhancement the mountains and foothills will likely get astronomical numbers for the region that could very well exceed current projections

  • Bombillo1

    Well, let me be the first to cry BUST on this first system today. 1.35 inches expected and we have a whopping .04 in the boot. The Rainbow Loop is showing this thing to be a sheep in sheep’s clothing.

    • Cap’n

      Will this be the weekend you hit triple digits?

      • Bombillo1

        Been there done that. In fact many places have. I have a good friend that lives about 6 mi from Sutter’s mill ( low elevation site) and he is at 105″. Fully 180 miles south of me. I’m going with Pit 5 numbers for our totals (just tracking the record-able rain myself) and I believe they are in the 105 park as well. I’m thinking the real mile-stone for us now will be 130, our 98 record, for my watch here anyhow. It is squarely on the table. How about your totals, really hard to do with snow I know, but what would you say?

        • Cap’n

          My numbers are written down but they are downstairs at the moment. I’m over 230″ of snow and 50″ of rain since October 1st. The water year is epic, but I’m ready for more snow instead of rain. Wind is picking up here as I’m typing this.

          • Bombillo1

            What does that snow translate to, water wise, in your estimation?

          • VK (Sacramento)

            Deleted

          • Bombillo1

            Thanks. I know that answer means different amounts for the multitude of snow densities that exists. No single formula for everyone, unfortunately.

          • Bombillo1

            3.8 inches of snow being the equivalent of 1′ rain. Very high water density!

          • Cap’n

            That snow is packed with water as the majority of our snow storms have come in wet.

          • AlTahoe

            118″ of snow and 35″ of rain for this area according to the airport (they are actually keeping good records this season). That rainfall total is pretty incredible for us. Another 20″ or so of snow and we will finally have an average season.

          • Cap’n

            You got another 82″ of snow and 17″ of rain coming by May 1st.

          • Siernev

            That’s really impressive considering the normal annual precip for SLT airport is just over 20″. Almost double that already just in rain alone, not even counting the snow. Wow.

          • AlTahoe

            We Average around 27″ of rain down here. The record keeping just sucks.
            I should add the 27″ is rain and snow together. We are probably around 45″ with the snow moisture added as well.

          • Siernev

            Hmm, interesting. The NOAA 30-yr normal is 20.4″ precip (rain and water equivalent of snow). Wonder why such a big difference. Sounds like maybe the airport’s records are a bit lackluster?

          • Cap’n

            Can you send me a link to where I can check the Truckee airport as well? CHeden did once but when I clicked it didn’t work. I don’t know why it’s so hard for me to find these.

          • AlTahoe

            I dont see that one on the Wrcc website. Just the Truckee RS and they stopped keeping records about 4 years ago.

        • Nate

          Wow, per the CNRFC map, and there are already 6 stations above 100″:
          Venado–116.1″
          Honeydew–109.8″
          Pit 5–100.3″
          Four Trees–113.0″
          Bucks Lake–111.4″
          Strawberry Valley–110.3″

    • Nate

      The KBHX doppler begs to differ…

      • Bombillo1

        Fair enough. Here is a screen shot of our little corner being in the Bullseye all day with nothing to show for it. In fact, has anyone reported any significant numbers, maybe Chow, or Alanstorm? Everyone quite mute which means not much happening. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9f0b50f3698262fbd9f76508722fb05f99d67f8c349b47e0e86af84a8427002.png

        • Humboldt_ARk

          We have gotten around .46 inches here in Arcata with lots more offshore!

          • Bombillo1

            I like those coastal reports, the most distal weather buoy to get readings. However, .4, certainly by this year’s standards, is not particularly impressive. What was predicted for today there?

          • Humboldt_ARk

            I think we were expecting around 1.4 according to wunderground..certainly still possible with the heaviest rain due to arrive shortly

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Should I be scared or excited?? There’s a creek right beside my house…
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3930197f15aebe7a995c49c7e7a42f9ebc27d1775ca1c276eb0f8fd7a0c9d09f.png

    • Cap’n

      Excited.

    • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

      Which creek?

      • RandomTreeInSB

        San Roque creek. The creekbed is quite deep (20ft down) so I should be fine.

        • Aussie Joe

          How is the hillside? Prone to erosion? Good luck this weekend!

        • Cornholemaster (Ventura)

          I remember it well. If you’re up closer to Foothill you should be fine.

    • Nathan

      both.

    • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

      Sounds like a good opportunity to do some backyard river rafting.. or am I just being a bad influence on you? Lol ?

    • Bombillo1

      Excited. Nature is about to rear it’s head for you guys.

  • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)
  • AlTahoe

    That Bulls eye over lake Oroville is still there for late Monday with very high snow levels. Not good

  • Jockman

    Latest run now showing FIVE AND A HALF INCHES for my location (Hollywood Hills) on Friday. It’s approaching the length of my manhood! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a1e1a4ea5003211ddd790cbc8cace340eac7dd5804ee36c223f9169a57291f58.png

    • scott

      I can only imagine how the 405 is going to look Friday afternoon.

      • M. (Ventura County)

        Thank god I don’t make that commute. I would probably call off work that day.

      • malnino

        Like someone slammed into a fire hydrant right next to the world’s largest Car Max parking lot. Quite the clusterf**k, to be sure.

    • M. (Ventura County)
      • Jockman

        Wow!

      • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

        You could see those types of events in Florida, Texas and the rest of the central and eastern US.

      • Bombillo1

        Half your annual in one day? I would just sit outside naked and take in every drop.

  • Humboldt_ARk

    According to the 0z gfs the areas that are expected to recieve the brunt of the big storm (Santa Barbara, Ventura, western LA county) are going to get a somewhat long duration low intensity storm on its heels. Any thoughts on that? Is this an outlier or a new trend?

    • Humboldt_ARk

      19.38 inches?! This is not looking good…

    • AlTahoe

      Wow 19″ bulls eye over the Oroville watershed. People downstream should just start packing up now

      • Aussie Joe

        Will be interesting to see if DWR ups discharge rate above current 100cfs to stay ahead of this. Agreed this is worrisome.

        • Ice-nine (Suisun City)

          I say give it a shot. Know what you’re dealing with now, not later.

          • Pfirman

            Nah. They need to ride the horse they are on. At 100,000cfs it appears indefatigable. They are having success and can afford some stalls in deficit reduction or wiggle room or headspace, whatever.

        • Nathan

          It’s important to remember that we’re still 5 days out, forecast could still change a lot, but with our luck that could mean 35″ of rain and 10k snow levels by Tuesday.

      • Bombillo1

        If the preceding 90 days are any indication, I would circle about May 1st as a safe return date. Unless we have an earthquake.

      • Pfirman

        At least they have practice now. Guessing some may balk.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Are the high numbers due to the AR now being combined with a screaming jet?

      • alanstorm

        Major orographics of that watershed

    • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

      2010-2011 or a 2004-2005 repeat type of storms

    • Ice-nine (Suisun City)

      Dear Pacific Ocean,

      Northern California is not your toilet.

      Sincerely,
      Us

    • Boiio

      Not good.

    • John

      I’m a newb. Does this suggest 19+ inches on Monday or by Monday? Thanks in advance.

    • Henrik Panosyan

      I sincerely don’t know what to type in response to this graphic.

    • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

      My God!! ? 5-6 inch totals it the WIDE bullseye of SoCal! 19 inches near the oroville watershed?!? I’m praying for California ??

  • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)
    • Ice-nine (Suisun City)

      I was just getting up, bloody, from the last blow. Ouch

      • Pfirman

        Whoa respect. Ice-nine means stock still.

    • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

      The Santa Maria River will be a roaring river!

      • Bombillo1

        !Hay Santa Maria!

        • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

          With a chance of Tri-tip sandwiches fallling from the sky.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            YES!

    • Nathan

      Drain baby drain.

      NWS Sac:

      There is some model disagreement as to where the main brunt of the storm will be focused, north of I80 over the Feather River Basin (GFS) or south of it (ECMWF) & (GEM).

      Go Euro.

    • cthenn

      Damaged spillway aside, at some point it wouldn’t matter if everything was intact, this is simply too much water…

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        Negative. Spillway was designed to handle over 200k CFS.

        • Danlyle (Mariposa)

          A warm bullseye could put more in than 200K out could keep up with. I think its becoming apparent that the right conditions can overwhelm these systems, even when functioning correctly.

          • cthenn

            Exactly. Even Shasta is coming up on overload status.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            That’s the case for many northern reservoirs as of today, maybe except New Mellones. There will be floods.

          • cthenn

            The point being, though Oroville may not have been in its current dilemma, all of this rain would have adverse impacts on water system, and other infrastructure.

          • Bombillo1

            The Sac River in Redding is roiling at this moment. I guarantee that the operators of the big dam systems are stockpiling Malox. These kinds of rains may wind up taking out some DWR execs as well, should something happen.

          • Pfirman

            Croyle rhymes with boil. Dude identified himself as acting director, and it was a newish appointment.

          • Bombillo1

            Previous dog catcher took early retirement after seeing the last ARK lining up.

          • I just came back from Florence, OR. Saw Shasta last Tuesday and again yesterday. The difference was incredible. Shasta Is full!

          • Pfirman

            Nice. Lived a year about three miles up the Siuslaw near the western tip of Waite Island. Great year.

          • whisperingsage

            Shasta’s one of the unfinished dams too.

          • Pfirman

            Sure the folks in charge at Fukushima would agree. Talk about a warm bullseye.

          • sc100

            Inflows into Oroville have gotten up to 300K in the past, so yes it is possible. With this storm, I’m thinking 200K could be a good bet. That’s a lot of rain coming. We’ll see if the dam tries to up the outflow from the main spillway. Definitely don’t want to try the e-spillway again.

        • cthenn

          And what about all the downstream rivers, creeks, levees, and other watersheds?

          Have you not noticed all the failures around the state of various infrastructure?

          • Pfirman

            The entire state is infrastructure. Sure, a number of failures, but overall, a small percentage.

        • Pfirman

          Which spillway? There are three. Designs have long been thrown out the window.

    • D2101

      This is disturbing..

  • Sublimesl

    Thousand Oaks is supposed to get 5.8 inches of rain on Friday, according to Weather Underground (and .54 on Thursday). I have family there.

    This would cause a lot of trouble. I wouldn’t want to be in Malibu Canyon if this really comes to pass.

    • AlTahoe

      If you believe the weather underground totals being shown, your gonna have a bad time. I would expect 50% of what they show and then be happy if you get over that.

  • Trough_love

    The perils of following the models obsessively and hanging out here too much: My area is forecasted to get around 3.4″ Fri-Sat. I would be super excited about this and cancel all my plans just staring out the window. But now that I know the model was forecasting 5″ last Sunday and seeing it slowly decrease to a “measly” 3.4″, it has taken a liiiiittle bit of shine off. 😛
    Oh well, 3.4″ is still pretty great around here. I gotta go tell my non-weather-geek family so that their excitement can catch on.

    • cthenn

      The anticipation of the next model, and over-excitement of storm events can lead to stress beforehand, and disappointment afterward ?

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I have this! Someone should name it.

        • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

          The Whopper

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I’m sure TWC will name it at some point.

        • PRCountyNative

          It’s called ruining your own life.

        • whisperingsage

          Maybe, ungrateful?

      • whisperingsage

        I haven’t been disappointed yet this year.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    latest rainfall projections. upper Santa Ynez and Ventura River bullseye.
    https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/832082341522714624

    • Humboldt_ARk

      That comment below though! Mike trout is probably a frequent visiter here! Haha

    • rainingonmycactus

      Wow, insane storm. Looks like long beach is the loser for this storm, and still a good forecast!

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Wow. They were only showing 3.1 for SB earlier.

      Is your rain gauge ready? I want hourly updates from the pass.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        I have one that measures up to 5″, might not be enough actually!

        • Bombillo1

          Go digital man!

          • RandomTreeInSB

            I initially planned to purchase an AcuRite digital rain gauge, but there were too many bad reviews. Any recommendations? 🙂

          • Aussie Joe

            Mine has worked OK for 2 years now, but I cannot comment on the overall quality of the product – maybe I just got lucky. If I was to buy a new one I would want a product that got mostly positive reviews.

          • Bombillo1

            My Oregon Scientific system works well and for the price you can’t beat it (about $65 for mine). The next step for me is a Davis system, but I will have to sell a kidney to acquire it. Depends on your budget. I have a secondary unit, Acurite, and it is fair. I sent one back and they replaced it without hassle, thru Amazon.

          • RandomTreeInSB

            Thanks! I’ll look into those options.

          • Danlyle (Mariposa)

            I use the neighbor’s PWS via weather undreground, but I’m leaning towards getting my own these days. Can’t resist getting my own numbers.

        • Chris
    • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

      3.41″ for my area! Dam! (Pun intended)

    • Dan weather maniac

      8 inches for John Curtis!!!

      • VK (Sacramento)

        The totals he deserves !!

      • Pfirman

        TMI.

      • Bombillo1

        He’ll take it, I’m sure.

    • FR44

      I look at that map and those numbers, and I think to myself that the roof in the corner of my old apartment in LA will surely be leaking. Because I’m quite positive, even all these years later, that my former landlord still has yet to fix it right!

    • SacWx

      Nice to see it’s targeting the remaining “extreme drought” portion of the state.

    • GusLevy

      This graph is predicting 5″ for La Canada..that would be almost 30% of what has already been an above avg rain season (18.5″ thus far).

      So I checked the record 1-day rain for La Canada with the thought that 5″ might get entry into the ballpark. Single A fastball at best with 5″…the record is 16″…wow.

    • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

      Wow! So downtown LA certainly
      Has the chance to break it’s all time daily rainfall record set back in 1938 of 4.-something (4.36?)

      • GusLevy

        Drive back down for Fri…you deserve to be here for the record.

        • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

          I know right!! Hey I don’t start work until Monday I’m tempted to dump money in my gas tank and go down there to experience this one!

          • Aussie Joe

            If you drive slowly it will rain all the way there!

          • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

            Omg ? your right! So tempting!

          • Aussie Joe

            Make sure you stick a rain gauge on the roof of your car!

          • Pfirman

            If you stay home the blog will light up your life.

          • WSDTLA

            c’mon tyler the fomo will drive you crazy lol

      • Chris

        I think it was 5.26″ from the post hurricane in September 1939.
        This made landfall as a tropical storm with 70mph winds in Long Beach.

        • Tyler Price (Monterey/Seaside)

          Thank you for that, I stand corrected. You are right 5.26 inches 1939. Still this storm does have potential to break that record especially if downtown La gets a Strong thunderstorm ? that rolls over the city!

          • Chris

            Was I spot on? I did that from memory?

    • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

      Cachuma’s going to get a nice boost.

  • AlTahoe

    At hour 288 on, you can see cold sliders coming out of the Yukon up and over the block that is forming over Alaska. Shows sea level snow for all of Washington and Oregon. I believe this is what the GFS kept showing in late December for January as well. It will be interesting to see if the block holds and just gives us cold inside sliders or if it gets undercut again. Rinse and Repeat.

    • AlTahoe

      Well frames 372 and 384 show the jet undercutting again. Incredible!

      • Cap’n

        I’m holding on hope to the snow it’s showing from late Tuesday into Thursday, could be all rain before that. Is the Euro showing roughly the same? Some forecasts are still holding onto to all snow in Truckee and pretty good amounts.

        • AlTahoe

          I have lost my access to the Euro so I don’t know what it is showing. It looks like the Monday cold front will be strong and probably start as rain. Then the post frontal showers will dump a lot of snow. Looks very cold for a few days later next week as well as I saw the 528 line over us.

          • Cap’n

            Thanks. Well at least we know the snow pack will continue to get huge up above 7K. Might be a while before we can get the mountain bikes up high this summer.

          • Yolo Hoe

            Early August?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    I’ll be on with full updates tonight once I’m home from work, I am actually quite shocked at what amounts we are looking at here. Back when we used to get big storms with this similar complex setup, the NWS Oxnard/LA used to call for 6-12″ with a firm prediction and it sure is looking like this event could deliver with very similar forecast potential. This will bring some record rainfalls here, & I can’t wait to see how things hold up. This AFD is similar to old AFD’s though more spatial, talking in a big picture about how there is multiple storms, though some weak and then some very intense like Friday’s and next week’s for NorCal. If this repeats twice this month I have a very good/bad feeling about Spring. Cheers.

  • Boromir (Orcutt,CA)

    How many rain drops will Death Valley get?

    • Henrik Panosyan

      a small loan of a million drops

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Make the death valley yacht club great again!

  • Jason Jackson Willamette

    Wind is really picking up the past hour here in San Jose. Storms a-comin’

  • Rusty Rails

    Not to interrupt the SoCal hype party, but we’ve had a couple great break days around the Monterey Bay ahead of the pattern change. Today it was still nice as the clouds started moving in. Here’s Elkhorn Slough this morning looking back toward Moss Landing and Monterey, followed by sunset this evening at Twin Lakes in Santa Cruz. It’s still mild and calm here compared to the winds over the hill. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0a6b0fa9d7e1666eb99c596db7225aa2a418a72e9c308f6e3a91ca72bad55809.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/022e4abcd2f5af537a7be89afb07844909c96ab92d979a6933970031ef9eda81.jpg

    • Jason Jackson Willamette

      Aren’t we lucky to live in such a beautiful place?!

    • Aussie Joe

      Elkhorn Slough is a wonderful place to visit – amazing diversity of birdlife.

      • whisperingsage

        I went camping there once with a girlfriend. Beautiful. Also went birdwatching there with a wildlife management class. My teacher went running across the road road pointing ” green heron! Green heron!”.

    • Tangocity

      Went on the boat tour to see the sea otters there two years ago. Lovely place that most people don’t know about.

      • Pfirman

        Was surprised to hear the loons. They are noted for their mournful call. They mate for life, also notable.

        • Bombillo1

          Hence mournful.

          • Pfirman

            Doy. I did not go there. Last time I did that I was chastized.

          • Bombillo1

            Just don’t marry a loon.

          • whisperingsage

            Nah, there is comfort and security in a familiar mate. I used to slip and call my mother ” Mike” and still slip and call my husband ” Mama”. Sounds goofy, but it means they take care of me. In all their imperfection.

    • D2101

      Rusty, is the Feather River Canyon still shut down to rail traffic?

    • whisperingsage

      Ooooooooooo

  • RunningSprings6250

    Who wants to revert the rains/snow and continue the drought through another summer?

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      As long as Sonora is wet everyone is happy.

      • RunningSprings6250

        There is that! LOL

        (But not too wet! Just right…)

    • Chris

      I think WW should forever ban you from our kingdom ?

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I’ll take this over the RRR any time.

  • stormy10
  • Henrik Panosyan

    I was considering setting my alarm to wake up for the 006Z GFS update then go back to sleep, but whether it be excitement or disappointment, I’ll likely have trouble going back to sleep after.

  • Cactus on a Boat

    Where this front stalls is where we are going to see the most serious flooding. The latest 00z NAM 4k has the whole front stalling and pivoting right over the heart of Los Angeles County.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/063f86dd2d8b474243a3d5652b96897275867e8d0fb7312db136c6a4553f9e8b.png

  • Just came back from the Oregon Coast. Can’t remember when I have seen all the Sac River overflows so filled along the 5. Shasta wss full, too! This next series of storms is really going to have some impact!

    • Sokafriend

      Just in time for the deluge. Better stock up, access will undoubtedly be limited in and out of there for a few days. If you can, please get some pics of the waves tomorrow Good luck!

      • Thank you! Need to hit the grocery store anyway but will def capture some shots at Zuma.

        • Sokafriend

          Yay! Thanks!

    • Pfirman

      How was the Umpqua?

      • Wide and muddy!

        • We got hit with an incredible storm last Wed/Thurs…everything was churned up!

  • Cactus on a Boat
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      And that will be going on right during the evening commute.

      • 2-4 inches during the Friday evening commute? Oh, not to mention possible 50+mph gusts?Sounds like a downright recipe for disaster to me.

        • Jason Jackson Willamette

          I wouldn’t even. I’d take a sleeping bag to work or just stay home. CA drivers are nutz enough without near hurricane conditions to contend with.

          • Sokafriend

            Ever drive in Houston or Dallas? CA has the best drivers anywhere.

          • whisperingsage

            My husband was hauling a moving van for his Mom long distance and we were stuck in Dallas traffic, a semi rolled back 8 feet and hit him, and insisted he was at fault.
            I was following him with Mom in her little can and almost lost him twice, I should have nailed a stuffed monkey to the corner of the van so I could pick him out in the crowd.

          • Sokafriend

            They do have a big problem with road rage there. How about the 20 ft exits onto two way traffic, my fave, same with freeway entrance.. I really don’t think many people have a driver’s license in Texas. Glad you made it through.

          • whisperingsage

            Businesses might be hard pressed to stay open in those conditions. I used to work at a Del Taco when I was 17, and one storm knocked our giant lit ball off the top of the roof, managers said that’s enough, close it up.

  • Jason Jackson Willamette
    • Bombillo1

      Sort of a mirage. That vertical jag in the far north, center of the state, left nothing. Still at .04 for the day. Hopefully it all went to Cachuma and Hermit Crab’s house.

      • Jason Jackson Willamette

        Where you at Bombillo1?

        • Pfirman

          He at upstate, aka vertical jag.

        • Bombillo1

          Big Bend. Pit River.

  • stormy10
    • The ECMWF looks march better than the GFS for my location.

      • Bombillo1

        Same Elementary school as Powerful Winter Storms?