Northern California storm onslaught continues; widespread flooding likely this evening

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 10, 2017 3,261 Comments

Recent storms set stage for high-impact event today

Another powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and high-elevation blizzard conditions to Northern California. NCEP via UCSD.

This will be a brief update, but given the widespread significant storm impacts expected later today I felt a quick post was in order.

A very warm and wet “Pineapple Express”-type atmospheric river (with origins in the subtropics) brought widespread rainfall to California over the weekend, even at very high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Flooding, mudslides, and avalanches shut down most major travel corridors through Northern California on Sunday for at least some period of time, and a number of larger rivers have approached or exceeded flood stage.

Early model forecasts for this weekend storm were remarkably on-target, especially with regard to the large-scale storm details. One modest mitigating factor that prevented the weekend storm from bringing even more severe impacts was the slight lag between the arrival of the deepest atmospheric moisture and the arrival of the cold front. This “phasing issue” meant that while orographically favored higher elevation areas saw the expected prodigious rainfall totals, areas near sea level or “rain shadowed” by mountain saw less precipitation than otherwise would have occurred.

Soils are completely saturated and rivers already running very high following this weekend’s storm, however, and now a new storm is bearing down on California this afternoon. Since virtually all precipitation that falls over the next 24 hours will immediately turn into river/stream runoff, the flood threat later today may actually be higher in many places that during the weekend storm.

 

Very heavy rain, locally very strong winds, and epic blizzard conditions in Sierra Nevada

Northern California, particularly the Bay Area and central Sacramento Valley, will be under a strong” jet streak” this evening, enhancing precipitation and wind potential. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Today’s storm will bring an wide range of severe weather conditions to Northern California over the next 18 hours.

Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Very strong winds are also possible near the time of cold frontal passage this evening. In the hills and in other wind-prone locations, wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible (and winds greatly in excess of 100 mph are likely on remote, high elevation peaks in the Sierra Nevada). Of potentially even greater consequence will be wind gusts over 50 mph in less wind-prone urban areas in the Bay Area and Sacramento region, where widespread power outages and tree damage is likely. Wind impacts with this storm will likely be more significant than with the Sunday storm.

With strong storm-scale dynamics, increasingly cold air aloft, and a fairly well-defined cold frontal passage this evening, thunderstorms will be possible (especially near the coast). Some of these could even approach severe limits, bringing torrential downpours and very strong wind gusts.

In the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard of epic proportions is currently unfolding. In contrast to the Sunday storm, snow levels are now below well below pass level in most places. Multiple feet of snow have already fallen at the highest elevations, at it’s likely that areas as low as Lake Tahoe could see 5+ feet (!) of snowfall, with much more than that up at 8000+ feet. Very strong winds are also occurring. Travel across the Sierra Nevada range will be dangerous (and essentially impossible) over the next 24 hours. Snowfall of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in years in most populated parts of the Sierra Nevada, which may elevate impacts even further.

Once again, Southern California will see some rain out of this storm, but since totals will remain on the low side no significant problems are expected.

 

Long range: a much-needed break, but more storms on horizon?

Long range ensemble forecast: more storms to come after modest 3-5 day break. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I’ll keep this section short: after another weak to moderate (and colder) system on Wednesday/Thursday (which could bring snow to the foothills and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, including Southern California), things should dry out for 3-5 days. This will allow rivers to recede and soils to drain a bit. But both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an active pattern over the North Pacific may redevelop by next week. Stay tuned!

For updates on today’s storm, follow Weather West on Twitter!

 

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  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    What are you guys going when we get the 5 day dry weather break?

    • Go fishing.

    • scott

      complain about the drought

      • Charlie B

        There should be an award for pithy comment of the day. you would win today.

    • Go Golfing.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Repair leaks and possibly get a sump punp

    • Purplerain

      Golf in Monterey.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Going to AZ Sun-Wed for my Mom’s 70th, so I am stoked that I won’t be missing any rain. Though, might have to fly into rain when we return next Wednesday.

    • matthew

      Talk about politics and global warming.

    • rainingintheLBC

      I’ll be on here.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Hit Santa Anita and bet on the ponies. Play a round of golf and maybe a day of fishing. One caveat…….if gf allows.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Cancel events

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • Yolo Hoe

      Awesome!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • Pfirman

      Nice, but I don’t want to click on the link and leave the site. A little info would have been helpful if they are all this water year, or each picture was a different water year.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • Pfirman

      Sure, but did it rain a ton?

      • No, it did not start raining until 5:00 this morning and so far only got about 0.12″

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • Pfirman

      Assuming ‘we’ does not include Cachuma, et alia.

  • Nate

    Little late to the party, but my yearly total is now 17.03″ (75% of annual rainfall). These 3 storms exceeded both my expectations and the NWS forecasts here, bringing amounts of 2.42″, 4.05″, and 2.41″ for a January total of 8.88″ so far! Last night’s storm was especially exciting because of the lightning I saw (4 strikes in total, about 35mi away). It wasn’t anything amazing, but they were the first I’ve seen here since 11/2015, so I was pretty pumped. I managed to get a video, so here it is looped as a gif. Hopefully this works. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3a0cb2065b27876d52a14ec1378b599c051d9dd45666ca70c257ffde6f2421ec.gif

    • Pfirman

      Nate, pro tip, not everybody can remember where the hell everybody lives, so little reminders are welcome. Think Redlands, who is religious about it. I fear the day I forget.

      • Nate

        Oops, thanks for the reminder. Saratoga, ~400ft.

      • rainingintheLBC

        I haven’t seen that guy on here in awhile.

  • Crank Tango

    It’s been calm all day here in Burney (3200 feet), but it just started snowing hard. .01 inches, and counting, will update by the hundredth.

    • TruckeeLover

      Did you get the 2nd hundredth yet? How about now? Now??

      • Crank Tango

        I think so! Something weird happened to the sun. Was that supposed to happen? I haven’t checked the models in a while.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Screw that – count individual snow flakes and keep us posted!

      • RunningSprings6250

        Dedication ?

    • Pfirman

      Captain Kumquat here requests an upgrade to feet.

      • Crank Tango

        We have about 1/12 feet right now!

  • Sokafriend

    Alan, check out this Beta Russian River and watershed for next week. His AR forecast tools have been very precise several weeks out.
    http://vortex.plymouth.edu/~j_cordeira/WSPortal/WS-Russian.html

    • Pfirman

      New Hampshire? Will read later. Hope Daniel wades in.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    well it looks like that is a warp up with the rain we ended the day with 1.38″ of rain so with the storm we got 4.85″ of rain this storm is now the wettest storm of the season it has over perform here NWS was calling for 3 too 4″ of rain we got 4.85″ nic round # if you ask me love it

    any ways

    with the 4.11″ we got over the weekend and with this event now ending from the two storms we have picked up 8.96″ of rain

    and for JAN we now have 11.41″ of rain

    • Admode (Susanville)

      6.31″ here so far for the month. Not bad for a place that averages 15″.

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        More rain on the way too I may have 15 too 20″ of rain by the end of the month of The GFS is right

      • Pfirman

        Hard to believe that’s all Susanville area gets, location wise, elevation wise, and, well, need wise.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          The weather is so weird here. The west side of town is just enough in the sierras/cascades that it gets a fair amount of moisture. As you go east through town you drop into the great basin and the precipitation drops off quickly as you move that direction. Spillover is definitely a factor. You can see it during orographic storms. The clouds often stop right at the tree line on the hills to the north. I could go on and on, who would have thought a spot where the sierras, cascades, great basin and Modoc plateau met would be so interesting!

          • Siernev

            For that very reason I’m assuming it’s pretty rich in biological diversity, yeah?

            Was there for the first time last spring and really enjoyed the topography, flora, etc.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Same here, I drove through the area for the first time in September heading to Portland, loved it.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Yup. Unique soil types, vegetation, etc. Even the deer here are cross breed muley/blacktail.

          • Y. Pestis

            Huge amount of diversity. One of my favorite areas to work. For a biologist, California is where it’s happening. We’ve got it all, rainforest and desert(s of 3 different types) to alpine and marine. Heaven.

          • Tuolumne

            Another cool area is at the other end of the Sierra around the Lake Isabella/Piute/Kiavah area. Sierra montane, foothill, Great Basin, and Mojave (Joshua trees) meet, plus some strays from the SoCal mountains like Nolina.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Excellent! I’ll surely look that up tomorrow!

          • Tuolumne

            Take 178 from Bakersfield to Mojave for an intro; best in March of a wet year :-). The lower Kern Canyon (below Isabella) will blow you away. You’ll find Joshua trees on the west slope of the Sierra off to the east of Lake Isabella. If you’re feeling adventurous, head up to the Piutes, Kiavahs (4WD), or the Kern Plateau. Breckinridge Mtn. and the Greenhorns off to the west are more conventional southern Sierra vegetation and landscapes with the usual plants.

            The area just has to have an amazing interplay of microclimates to have such varied biomes intermingled the way they are. The east side of the Kiavahs has Mojave desert, then a narrow band of gray pines at the edge of the summit plateau, then pinyon pines on top (where not burned off). Really bizarre. Some researcher needs to put out a massive array of sensors across the landscape to get a handle on the microclimates and relate them to vegetation.

          • StormHiker

            Second this. Lake Isabella area is amazingly diverse in the biome department. Always stunning how quickly you go from seeing blue oaks to Joshua trees. Cool geology there too – stretched pebble conglomerates near Stine Cove!

        • Admode (Susanville)

          And for some reason this season the precipitation has been non stop. I can’t tell you how many times in recent years I have seen the edge of storms almost surrounding us but just being sucked up by the leeward nature of the area.

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert/Lancaster area. Clouds moving in hopefully.rain. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/86a6393d5b7737b9d4a9de5f1cc4704879c98fd24ac2652d9844f0c600b6548b.jpg

  • Admode (Susanville)

    Some awesome flood pics from humboldt. You can see my old apartment in the eureka slough pic!

    https://lostcoastoutpost.com/2017/jan/11/photos-countywide-aerial-views-flooded-humboldt/

    • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

      Awesome!! The Eel really gets wide when it floods the delta. I lived on the other side off the river fromferndale right on the edge of the Loleta bottoms. Never saw it like that though.

      • Pfirman

        You two and Alanstorm make an Eelstorm triptych.

        • alanstorm

          Funny, now there are 4 on this forum who are connected to this topic: 2 here who lived in Loleta, MalibuBarbi who’s husband’s family’s house was wiped out in Klamath, & Runningsprings who was born in Weott, which was wiped out.
          Small world/big flood

      • alanstorm
        • Admode (Susanville)

          Yup. I had a summer job tending to someone’s property out near Loleta in 2008. I’d be sitting at home in eureka and tics would literally be crawling on the walls from that place. Thanks for the pics.

          • alanstorm

            Many a teenager’s summer Job: “bailing hay”.
            Early introduction to hard labor!
            Had a summer job in Larrabee (Eel valley) of “setting irrigation pipes”. Had to wade across the river at 4am to get there.
            End if the summer I got $250.
            I was pretty pissed.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            That would suck!:)

        • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

          I lived in the trailer park in Loleta and our window looked right out that road towards cannibal island and crab park. Moved there in 1978. My land lady used to tell me the story of the flood of 1964 and how the sound of the water from the Eel river hitting the utility poles at Eel river drive and cannibal island road/main st woke her up in the middle of the night allowing her to evacuate.

          • alanstorm

            Wow!
            There’s a new DVD out with eyewitness testimony. They said many gathered in the hillside next to Fernbridge to watch the houses float by in grim procession. Said they knew it was getting worse when the big 100 yr old Victorians started coming by, only to be dashed to pieces against the bridge. They saw “everything you could imagine” float by, including all manner of wildlife clinging to piles of debris, including “many bears”.
            They got choked up talking about it. Such a huge tragedy, that entire area was never the same

          • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

            Wow. I’d didn’t know that. I would like to get a copy. At Humboldt State my specialty you was sediment transport and spent a great deal of time studying that 1964 flood.

          • alanstorm

            Its new. Mostly eyewitness accounts, was kind of depressing, actually.
            Eel must be the ultimate study for sediment load! For a river it’s size, has the highest sediment load of any in the U.S.
            It’s a crazy watershed- it runs NW parallel to the Ocean & is closer to the coastline way upstream at Leggett then it is near the mouth at Scotia! The Main Fork, North & Middle Forks all begin by flowing due south, then all flow NW to past Cape Mendocino.

          • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

            Yes. It is a very unique watershed!! I remember the sediment load from the 64 flood was calculated in terms of how many railroad cards it would fill. The number of cars hooked together would stretch to the moon and back something like two and a half times ( not sure that was the exact number but it was something like that).

          • alanstorm

            Thats INSANE.
            There it is spewing it’s sediment load. (Satalite pic obviously not ’64)
            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7ed65cf44fa75638877cd335933c0fa99a5f276665d19294df405323622c8377.jpg

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    Well this night owe is done am going too have my 1st night sleep and a good one since Friday when all this start Monday night I was up at 12am after a 5hr sleep the. I been up since 12am. So from 12 am all the way too 10 Tuesday night I been up. I was able to get some good sleep 9hr sleep last night so tonight am going too bed early and get at lest 10hrs or more tonight. This weather has really keep me up has I love tracking storms. And keeping you guys up too date but this night owe is done for tonight

    • Quagmire Cliffington

      Thank you, Storm Master.

      • Boiio

        That’s MISTER Storm Master…

        • Nathan

          That’s Mister Storm Master, M.S.

          He has a Masters degree.

          In STORM.

      • Crank Tango

        Thank you.

    • annette johnson

      I appreciate your tenacity Storm master. Get some rest!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Well, alright then, but we expect a full, detailed report in the morning. 😉

    • rainingintheLBC

      And the peak traffic ends.

    • Skye H.

      Here’s to many more Powerful Winter Storms of 2017!

    • RunningSprings6250

      I don’t think you’d have as much fun with 1″-2″ storms…..

    • mrq – Glenshire Truckee

      Thank you

  • Jon Bartel

    Some seriously heavy showers in SLO this afternoon, just in time for my daily walk down to the carpool.

  • Cap’n

    Was surprised to see another Winter Storm Warning hoisted out of Reno: 4-8″ with up to a foot above 7K tomorrow. We’ve received another couple inches today in some of the heavier snow showers.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Make it stop?

    • RunningSprings6250

      Plus wrap around moisture!

      • Microbursts

        And we all love that wrap around ……… moisture ???

    • Tangocity

      Fast moving and hard hitting for SoCal coast tomorrow AM with low snow levels for the wrap around moisture.

      • Fast moving has been a consistent theme for SoCal coast anyway…

    • Socalgirl

      How low do you think snow levels might go?

  • CHeden
    • Yolo Hoe

      That has a good ring to it — could be the title of a Dead tune

      • CHeden

        LoL!!!!!
        I have to admit when I wrote this quicky post, Dear Mr. Fantasy did come to mind?
        Opted out for the more mundane version for the “uninitiated”.

  • RunningSprings6250

    So, there’s SYP fog and then there is DOUBLE SYP fog. Tonight there is pockets of double SYP fog forming within the SYP fog and I can tell it is going to get BAD. There are already cars stopped IN the road, on the side of the road, wrong side of the road etc.

    Double SYP fog is not only when you can’t see anything in front of you but the fog is also completely sticking to the ground so that any amount of light simply makes it solid grey. Complete Zero visibility.

    There is no yellow line to look at. Nothing. Just blinding grayness. It is quite disturbing…and that’s before you actually S.Y.P…

    • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

      Help me out here, what is SYP fog? Similar to tule fog? I wasn’t able to find a definition.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Sh*t Your Pants is the official term.

        • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

          LOL now that I know WTF you’re talking about. 😉

        • malnino

          SYP, then Say Your Prayers!

      • Tuolumne

        I think it describes a very unpleasant action done in fear. The last two words are “your pants”.

    • Tangocity

      Sounds terrible. Be safe!

    • Flyin_Pig

      Great description. Many years ago I used to live in Crestline and we used to call it “Ridge Fog”.

      I remember a few times having to pull over and open the car door to make sure I was still on pavement, between the fog and snow-covered ground, I couldn’t tell.

    • Y. Pestis

      I was in that last spring while attending a conference at the UCLA compound at Lake Arrowhead. We were headed from Arrowhead to Big Bear and the person behind me turned around at the junction with Hwy 18 and went back to the center. Too wise to drive it.
      Scary drive. I wouldn’t do it again, it was soup.

    • whisperingsage

      I’m shocked at how fast people go in the fog

  • Cap’n

    TTUSD and South Lake Tahoe School District have called yet another snow day for tomorrow, Thursday January 12th.

    Welfare line here I come.

  • Fairweathercactus

    It will be interesting to see if the 0z jumps on a more dry pattern in the long range. Something is telling me it will for So Cal.

    • RunningSprings6250

      That’s the opposite of interesting.

      Something tells me the cactus needs a good night sleep too…

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Wrong. Start working on your submarine avatar 😉

    • Freddy66

      0z looks really good for so cal.

    • Bartshe

      0z went dry Saturday through Monday, definitely a pattern there.

      • StormHiker

        Hey Bartshe – the snow water content index came out today, just fyi.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I think that has been in the forecast already and is nothing new.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I down voted

  • Unbiased Observer

    Awfully quiet in here tonight. I suppose everybody wore themselves with all the excitement the past week and a half. All it will take is one really good or bad run of the GFS to get everybody going again.

    • Charlie B

      Storm Master checked out 4 hours ago. He was vary tired after march fine report ing.

  • Cap’n

    Albert, it’s snowing in South Lake.

  • TahoeCard

    Finally made it back on here. Homewood got crushed by that storm. We are without power for another night. Trees and limbs down everywhere. Today was without cell service too. Somewhere in between 5-6 ft of snow. We were out of power Sun to Mon. night 30 hrs. Brown out Tues all day. Lost it last night at 8 and here we sit. The massive Tahoe power outage always leaves us last in the pecking order. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/aa7f8394026b2161b749737721481cfbef206c67fae433aa24a2ebd15304d542.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1467995e050f7a77fb12b9efb2df1d5e6de4d0711378745bf283cfef13662ae7.jpg

    • Cap’n

      Right on!! Looks like we hit similar totals. West end of Donner is somewhere in the neighborhood of 5-6 feet as well. Good system. I’ll be working in Tahoma Friday so I’ll be able to check it out over there.

    • whisperingsage

      Look up lasersabers Stubblefield coil on YouTube. That should help your power issues.

  • rainingintheLBC

    loloxnard already hinting at some heavy rain next week. Whoever writes the AFDs in the evening shift must be new.

    • Cactus on a Boat

      and his caps lol.

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    NAM NAM delivery. SD County is the place to be tomorrow! Nice train of moisture followed by two large pulses. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/0135c71ee0187e950f195170211e215c05e799e9dd01fd54b421fa40ac22180c.gif

    • click

      Better SW flow than last night’s!

      • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

        Yep! More negative tilt would be nice but I’m not complaining.

    • Sokafriend

      Overnight, early morning rain , that’s nice.
      How do I make the “you must sign in” box that blocks my message as I write it go away? I am signed in. That box won’t go away.

      • whisperingsage

        Do you have a phone cleaner?

        • Sokafriend

          No, but I’m intrigued. Pray tell ?

          • whisperingsage

            Look up free app phone cleaner, there should be a few. Look up consumer reviews on each to decide which one. Unless you’re on computer , but then go to CNET consumer reviews on free downloads.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like the rain band splits right over my house, leaving me dry. LOL
      Fortunately it doesn’t quite have enough skill to nail those kind of ultra-fine details reliably.

    • Y. Pestis

      Thanks, and quite depressing for me. Look closely at roughly the southwestern corner and notice how the storm “breaks” around Mt. Baldy and the transverse range, that’s where I am, low and dry again.

  • alanstorm

    Raining in Willits.
    Again.
    7.1″ from that 1-2 punch storm.
    Everything is SOGGY

  • Dumping!

    • Sokafriend

      Yay for you!

  • Tangocity

    Started raining in the Oxnard plain. Working on our second bucket tip of the evening.

  • celo

    The hits just keep on coming. The GFS has gone absolutely bonkers next week with rain

    • jstrahl

      OTOH, what the GFS giveth, the GFS can taketh away.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Then again, it niether gives nor takes. It is either correct, or wrong in its calculations.

        • jstrahl

          I’m trying to be poetic. 🙂

  • bnweather
  • Thunderstorm

    The BLUE BLOB in the north Pacific says the same thing as Arnold “I’ll be back.” Probably well into late May.

    • Freddy66

      If this keeps up into February I think a blog post about why it’s happening is a given….no ? Nobody was expecting such a continual parade of storms back in the fall.

      • Sfedblog

        In fact, WeatherWest predicted a dry winter. Could still come to pass, but if this keeps up…

        • nunbub

          To be fair, he didn’t predict it, the NMME, the GFS, the Euro and others were mostly trending toward drier conditions – a fair assumption for a La Nina year

          • Sfedblog

            Point taken. Doesn’t speak well for long term prediction models, though that goes without saying.

    • Crouching Dallas
      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Ugh, that looks warmer & wetter than some of the earlier runs.

    • alanstorm
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      This wet pattern is looking rediculously resilient.

      But then something like this is needed to alleviate the catastrophic multi-year drought. May the RRR and its sidekick, the “Blob” of warm waters in the NE Pacific, be relegated to the dust bin of weather history.

      Then again, oscillations between severe drought and winters with damaging floods are probably going to be more common. Those that thought California would end up as a giant desert are just as wrong as those who will be thinking it will become a temperate rainforest after a couple more seasons like this one.

      • alanstorm

        Grand Canyon was one big FLASH FLOOD, so…..

      • William_LeGro

        I think we’re going to end up like the Okovango Delta – seasonal swamp followed by seasonal desert. We can look forward to great migrations of crocodiles, hyenas, wildebeests and warthogs. And mosquitoes bearing gifts.

        • whisperingsage

          Look up Alan Savory’s TED talk on 40,000 elephants. YouTube. He’s awesome.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Looking at past years, It would seem like a wet year is inevitable at some point. I hope this is one of those years

      • Siernev

        Your last paragraph is pretty much the conclusion from Daniel’s study published last year. Long-term average precip may not change but it’ll be distributed less evenly (more really dry years, more really wet years).

      • Scott Turner

        Ludicrously Lingering Lows?

    • April hope brings May nope

      Oh, joy. All I wanted was one decade in Suisun City before my home flooded. Oh well.

    • Sokafriend

      And assuredly destructive in Baja. Yikes!

  • Unbiased Observer

    Holy we cows! The 00Z GFS is a gravy train of non-stop big storms hitting the entire state through the end of the run beginning middle of next week.

    • Unbiased Observer

      From what I understand the ECM is hinting at something like this too, this might overtake January of 1969 the way things are currently looking.

    • Freddy66

      Too bad we can’t save some of them for winter 17-18.

    • Nathan

      Good lord. At least the warm AR has the decency to be first, this time around…

  • AlTahoe

    Charter Internet is back on in South Lake Tahoe! I called them earlier today and they told me that only 68 people had Internet access today in South Lake Tahoe.
    That AR being shown next week better fizzle or go somewhere else. All of the rivers in South Lake are still over their banks, even with all of the snow we had. There are still rivers of water pouring down streets today. I have no idea where another 3-6″ of rain could possibly go down here. This last AR might look like child play if the one next week actually happens. This is getting crazy

    • Please please please please let it happen. I want to see lifts buried in snow at the base, top, mid, back at the manufacturers warehouse at sea level in La Jolla, and at all cubs games. I swear I just heard the rotary on the train go by, was a odd sound. I want MOAR!

  • Can any rail nuts give me advance warning of when I should head over to tunnel 41 to get some rotary blower video action? I don’t live far from tunnel 41.

    • Rusty Rails

      No rotaries on the horizon yet. The spreaders had the hill all afternoon today cleaning things up. Trains are running like streetcars through there tonight. Here’s a spreader set dropping into the Big Hole (what everyone calls T-41) back in November. https://youtu.be/lvNgmFfijDM

      A flanger is coming west through it right now (I have ATCS Monitor which lets me see the dispatcher screen.
      It’s free and you might look into it if you’re up there for awhike). You can listen to what’s going on here: http://www.railroadradio.net/content/view/216/262/

    • Rusty Rails

      I found a 30 minute edit of the 2011 rotary doc: http://vids.kvie.org/video/2365218614/

      • whisperingsage

        Awesome, love the train stuff

  • Henry

    Mudslides on Highway 17 caused massive traffic jams in Los Gatos this evening. A slide closing one of the southbound lanes just south of downtown was responsible for the worst congestion. Some people took 2 hours to travel 1-2 miles. Some folks could not drive out of their homes due to traffic. Fortunately I don’t have to drive through downtown and managed to avoid the worst of the traffic on the commute.

    • William_LeGro

      Some things will never change, and Highway 17 is one of them. Well, never change for the better. When I was a kid living in Los Gatos and going to Santa Cruz, the big thrill was passing in the middle of the 3 lanes. When it rains it’s Psycho Highway 17.

      • whisperingsage

        It used to be called Blood Alley.

      • LBurk

        Actually, it, as a road is a lot better since they’ve done some huge improvements and taken out a very large amount of trees that improves line of sight but road rage is exponentially worse. I learned to drive on Hwy 17, lived at the Summit then. It’s easier to drive now and safer too, if you can avoid the idiots.
        With this storm, there were no epic accidents, it was only the random slides all day long that caused the chaos.

    • alanstorm

      That whole MTN is unstable.
      Hiway goes right thru the San Andreas Rift zone.
      Plus, quite a few off-camber turns that guarantee big time pile-ups pretty much every time it rains.

    • Guitar_grrrl

      I usually do my errands in Palo Alto via Skyline and Page Mill. Yeah, it was messy this morning, but I swear Page Mill is the most reliable way over the hill.

      • Henry

        Do you live along the crest of the Santa Cruz mountains, near Skyline? Or are you on the southwest side of the mountains? Did you get strong winds with the recent storms?

        • Guitar_grrrl

          I live southwest of the top of the junction of 35 and Page Mill, tucked into a canyon. Friends closer to the summit clocked winds in excess of 80MPH.

    • I was working downtown Los Gatos earlier and it took me over an hour to drive from LGHS to Main Steet Burgers. Was ridiculous. I ended up cancelling my shift since 1 order took over an hour long to drive half a mile.

    • LBurk

      Yeah, the neighborhood groups in the San Lorenzo Valley post minute to minute updates on how to get home. One of my friends had a 7 hour “commute” home.

  • Cactus on a Boat

    Wow, now this is what I call a real storm!

  • William_LeGro

    HEY! What’s with all this, like, RAIN??? Like, this is Los Angeles? Y’know, like DRY? I thought we were having a drowt? Now every, like, DAY it’s raining? Tenths upon tenths of inches? And my gauge since I changed the batteries back when it was dry like it’s spozed to be says we got 7 friggin’ inches of RAIN? And like it’s raining right now? Like, what’s up with that?

    • lodule16

      The NAM abides, man…

  • Sokafriend

    It’s raining rather intensely in Bonita.

    • Sokafriend

      4 minutes. Very beneficial.

      • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

        It’s been raining for about 12 now and getting more intense! Looks like at least another 15m or so. Ridiculous.

        • Sokafriend

          Are you still getting showers?

          • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

            Rain drops put me asleep lol. Got rain for another 25m after that.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Out of nowhere right?

      • Sokafriend

        Yes, it was. I was
        checking for rain across the border at the coast, nada. But just as I saw a little blip over this location on that radar, we heard the sudden drops of that moderate little blast. No wind at all. Looks like tomorrow will being more here and there- hoping the crossing is not chaotic.

        • alanstorm

          Was sunny all day in NW Ca & moon came out tonight.
          Then next thing I heard was a good downpour.
          Lasted about 3 hrs

          • Pfirman

            Guess I’m not THAT far from you because that was more or less my experience in Woodland, a town with a name you should love.

          • alanstorm

            U know me well.
            4th favorite behind Logland, Bearland & 64Floodland!

  • WSDTLA

    Pouring in LA, at least at my house.

    • Chris

      Where do you think the brunt of the heavy rain will be next Wednesday and beyond?

    • nunbub

      I think that’s the first time I’ve seen Daniel simply say, “Whoa.”

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    Moderate rain out of no where just now! Very slow cell. Caught me by surprise. Only had a 10% chance tonight too. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d90706b6c16e4012c67d9021d5bcd816842577543719bae89b9f62eab4b0ecc5.jpg

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Here comes the South West flow and the real convective pre-frontal
    Showers!! ^_^ yay this storm is gonna be a fun one I got a feeling this parade of storms is gonna go out with a bang for us in SoCal! 😀 https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5293030dcdd7929e2824d0d4fa58f815cac04ceef4e7268f47f3f6327b5c0930.png

  • Rusty Rails

    Moderate rain ramping up in Santa Cruz. This will be interesting for the active slide areas this morning.

  • Chris Kiely

    I’m having a hard time adjusting to this “raining between storms” thing. Reminds me of Portland.

  • RunningSprings6250

    That is quite the pair of storms starting next Wednesday and the 3rd poised off the coast in fantasyland…

  • TruckeeLover

    Awoken by the sound of steady rain in SLO… AND loving it!

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • RunningSprings6250

    And the light fluffy flakes turned to rain – still 32… ?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • TBinRC

    Wow, some major improvements on the drought monitor for the first time in years!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea5d4f348db416dc9c4997854daa7410bdcfd9fb482230b43b31b23714370dfb.png

    • TBinRC
      • thebigweasel

        I remember how excited I was to see that map because it showed that McCloud was finally out of extreme drought.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I’m no longer in Exceptional drought!!

      • Wet Line(San Diego)

        That is big time improvement over last year. Keep it going.

      • Tangocity

        Yes! Back to 20 minute showers. 🙂

    • roseland67

      Epic improvement,
      The northern third of the state is out of drought now, and the bottom 2/3’s has made significant upgrades also.
      If next storm can be central/south in location California will be in the best shape it has been in for 6-7years.
      Congrats from Chicago

    • CanyonKid

      The poor Channel Islands will need years of above average rain season to restore their groundwater.

      This is a good start however.

      • thebigweasel

        As will the entire central valley. We’re in much poorer shape to deal with the next, inevitable big drought.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Hmmm. As thought, SBA and VTA are the continued epicenter of exceptional drought. Storms continue to slide South and North of us each and every storm.

      • Tangocity

        Yeah – I am still in the darkest of colors. Is that considered dark red, brown or something else?

      • scott

        Thunder98 as well as Candleman’s post of the 6h GFS are showing some yellow bands coming to the coast. I think you might score an inch or so today.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Just had a very thin heavy rain shower.

    • whisperingsage

      What’s thin AND heavy? Sounds contradictory

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        The thin band of shower was heavy

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

    Looking ahead… starting next Tuesday NorCal is getting punished again. I hope this moves further south to give you all a break! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab109f1772b3baaa54659e3061b03a821c509c0b5b7ed48692f62c9563ee6040.gif

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      sure they dont need the flooding issue that comes with every strong storm has the flooding issue down there a much worse then up here

    • LBurk

      I hope so too. We can’t really take much more without a good drying out period.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    getting my 1st snow of the season wow i did not think this would happen i called my NWS too report it i all so told them that the 3,000ft snow levels where too high snow levels are 2,000ft right now

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    My local morning weatherlady says Santa Maria will only see light to moderate rain? That is very wrong!

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/80e9f826e4888a905becf3c1e9937b552c23a783895244cb3fdd93fb5d22d294.png

  • RanDog

    Hello, new to posting. Been lurking a while. In South Lake Tahoe. Been without power for 36 hours. good to be back on line.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Welcome!

    • AlTahoe

      Nice what part of south lake? The snow totals can vary widely across town.

      • RanDog

        Xmas valley. Appreciate your posts. Right now I’ve got to go clear the driveway again

        • AlTahoe

          Your snow totals will be similar to cap’n at donner lake out there in xmas valley. That place is a different world compared to South Lake Tahoe. Have fun

  • Admode (Susanville)
  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • Yolo Hoe

    Davis:

    Temperature steady 45F for several hours;
    Barometer steady at 29.83;
    Wind light from NW;
    0.42″ additional rain overnight with maximum rate 0.88″ per hour at 0128 early this morning — very light precipitation currently

    • Peter Schiffman

      What’s happened to the NWS station in Davis (KEDU)? It’s been off-line for several days.

      • Yolo Hoe

        Good question!

      • Yolo Hoe

        I think Pfirmin may have sabotaged it in yet another attempt to further magnify the importance of Woodland as the ‘Athens of Yolo’.

        • Pfirman

          Heh. Think you have us all wrong and the story backwards. We would be Sparta to your Athens.

          Regardless, I was born in Cincinnati…. but I married a Davisite.

    • CHeden

      If our weather up here in the north Valley is any indicator, sunny skies are on the way. Should be a great bike ride to work!

      • Yolo Hoe

        Barometer rising rapidly — I think you’re right — will still keep rain jacket handy

  • stormy10

    hmm moderate rain almost all night here in Paramount. backyard already flooded and front isn’t suppose to come till noon?

  • Cap’n

    Free donuts jokes in South Lake if anyone’s hungry.

    Light to moderate snow in Truckee. It’s January 12th and I’m pretty sure we’ve had about 5 days in a row of snow? And some form of precipitation almost everyday this month? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/09cc7191539921e4b77d796e8c5e186348414d569bebee25c5f33815efedbbce.png

    • AlTahoe

      We have been getting a light dry snow. Enough to look pretty but not enough to have to use the snow blower. I will take it!
      Deformation band might setup over this area later in the afternoon with heaviest snow expected south of I-80
      So I will probably have to use the blower again tonight. I am headed to heavenly and hopefully they get the top of the mountain open today

      • Cap’n

        Super dry. Just pulled up at Sugie it’s dumping. Have fun at Heavenly they’re the winners, South Lake won!

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • Didn’t deliver much rain, only .12″ at my gauge.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        It was a flop

      • Surprising brief rain here in San Jose, though. I alternate between driving and taking the bus to work, and last night I _thought_ that the rain would slack off enough to make a walk to the bus a possibility. A quick look at the radar at 5:00 AM looked good…

        … but at about 6:00 AM, right as I would have left, a pretty heavy line of showers came through — just enough to convince me to drive again.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I only got 0.1″

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Siernev

      I’m guessing 2-class improvement in one week is pretty rare.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    we got .77″ of rain this AM

    and with today rain we are now at 12.26″ of rain and all of this was the 1st 12 days of the new year

    • RunningSprings6250

      Did the night owl get his rest?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i wounder what FEB will be like has FEB is normal the wettest mouth of the year for CA we are really going to be in big trouble if FEB is like JAN

    • Admode (Susanville)

      I’ve been pondering that too. Susanville’s biggest snow storm occurred in march. Could be a long season.

  • Freddy66

    Pouring in downtown LA….And the front hasn’t even arrived yet.

  • Cap’n

    An inch of light fluffy and still falling. Braving 80 for SugarBowl.

  • SBMWill

    With more rain to come next week. It’s safe to say we are finally in the pattern we have been dreaming of for a while. Relief has arrived. Going to waterman canyon tomorrow to check the damaged roads today’s storm is going to take its tole

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      It really is like a dream come true. Better than we could have imagined at the beginning of the season.

  • SBMWill

    Another soggy morning. Rain every work day morning for me this week. It’s nice keeps a lot of the other trades at home and actually minimizes traffic in the evening. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/891d537eecab17a8e9358a545fd761b6779f8c68ef91dbd4c90d72db86a6693c.jpg

  • Eastsider (Mammoth Lakes)

    6-10″ overnight and currently 1-2″+/hr of amazingly light snowfall in Mammoth with no wind. Or in the proper meteorological nomenclature, it’s puking.

    • GusLevy

      There’s different levels of puking, btw…keep updating if it worsens to heaving.

    • Eastsider (Mammoth Lakes)

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/690f0ea194bc662d168f4cbef2a195acbb6bd676779188a101e512c472b90430.jpg
      Easily 3″/hr falling right now with temps between 14-20° on the mountain. 23° with 0.12″/hr precip at 7675′.

      • scott

        I see that the Tamarack Cross Country ski area is completely closed with no runs open. I bet they are absolutely buried at the Twin Lakes. I imagine the upper lakes around Horseshoe and Mammie are probably avalanche prone right now. Snowman is warning people that if they come up on Friday, it will be awhile before they can open up the upper parts. How are the stores handling up there? I imagine Vons and Rite Aid are pretty barren grocery wise. And where do they put all that snow in old town? Even last year I thought the snow piles were looking high. Maybe use a dump truck and ship it to Long Valley and let it melt?

    • Crouching Dallas

      Exactly what’s needed after yards of sierra cement – snow ratios of 1500000000:1. This weekend will be glorious!

      • Yolo Hoe

        Getcha some of it!!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Pouring in Santa Barbara right now.

    • sectionmaker

      just got .20 in 5 minutes…..crazy downpour at the new Lake Miramar

  • Danlyle

    At 3,300ft Mariposa, got a dusting last night. Snow line was around 4,0000. Raining hard on the slush now.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Heavy heavy snow in the springs! 1″ and counting, I’ll be back in 15 for an update!

    • Scott Turner

      It’s raining sacred bovines! Send some of that south to North County San Diego

    • scott

      Great to see the snow get replaced up your way. Slowly but surely I think the south is going to get its turn. I supposed the nasty fog finally lifted from last night. I dread driving in that stuff, heck I’d rather drive in a foot or snow or mud than the nasty fog.

      • RunningSprings6250

        It’s lifted in my neck of the woods just a short distance inland from the ‘rim’ where the fog had probably retreated to, its usually romping grounds.

  • CHeden
    • thebigweasel

      I’m homesick…

      • CHeden

        You should be!

    • Sokafriend

      Rising in all her majestic glory. Thank you so much!

    • Dan weather maniac

      Looks at elsas castle!! As my 4yr old daughter would say.

    • mattzweck

      Looks like powder. Very beautiful sight though.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Yes!!!!

    • David

      No other mountain like Shasta. Gorgeous is right…

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Renamed Drought Buster Mountain ;). Such a beautiful sight for dry eyes!

  • thebigweasel

    Huge dent in drought extent in California, as of Tuesday.
    I’ll be surprised if there’s any D4 listings at all next week. Even D3 may vanish.
    http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Area forecast discussion
      National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard California
      419 am PST Thu Jan 12 2017

      Short term…(tdy-sat

      “A more traditional storm is on tap today. A cold Gulf of Alaska
      low sits just to the west of the Bay area. Moist cyclonic flow
      covers the area and is producing showers across the area with the
      most showers occuring at either end of the forecast area. Slo
      County which is closest to the main low and la County where the
      flow is directly impinging on the land from the water.

      This morning a front associated with the upper low will sweep into
      the area. It will greatly increase the rainfall starting in slo
      County around dawn and then la County towards noon. The rain will
      then diminish in the same direction starting in slo County around
      noon and finishing over la County in the early evening. The colder
      air (-24 degree c at 500 mb) is now forecast to move over la
      County this afternoon coincident with the front. This combination
      of instability created by the cold air aloft and the lift of the
      front is enough to warrant a slight chc of thunderstorms.

      Rainfall totals should mostly fall between 0.50 and 1.00 inches.
      For the coasts and vlys with lesser amount inland. There will be
      heavier amounts over the northwest tip of slo County and locally heavier
      amounts across the coastal slopes esp in the San Gabriel range
      which will see the most prolonged period of rain. Current rainfall
      rates ahead of the front are on the light side…around a tenth of
      an inch per hour. Rates nearer to the front will increase to .2 to
      4 inches per hour. Any thunderstorm that does form will be able to
      produce rainfall rates of an inch per hour and because of this a
      Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the recent burn areas of l.A.
      County.”

      • mattzweck

        Every time they even bring up slight chance of t-storms for us here in socal high desert/Lancaster area. All we get is rain. The mountain’s get snow. So will see.

        • whisperingsage

          I’m in high desert above Reno, I’d rather have rain any day.

        • Zephyr (Crestline)

          Higher elevations are doing fine, like Running Springs, but not even all of your nearby Mtns are doing so well on snow. Trying to be thankful for the more abundant rain, but here at 5000 ft we’ve had a grand total of maybe 5- 6″ of snow this season so far. Up until 5 yrs ago we would often have 6 FOOT season totals. Oh well. Just the helpless victims of climate change I guess…

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      A max CAPE value of about 650j/kg is forecast around the SoCal bight this afternoon especially along the Santa Barbara channel along with Ventura County and Los Angeles County.

      • Upslope

        Perfect. Exactly where it’s needed. Now if we can just get some more negative tilt to set up a little training of the front over this same area, we’ll be in fine shape.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    There is a narrow band of showers heading towards me

    • Upslope

      We are all standing by for updates on this urgent matter!

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Lets bring Jim Cantore here!!

  • It’s over. New handle.
    formerly Xerophobe

    • Upslope

      You’re no 1Pluvious. He was the best.

      • Pfirman

        Brother to ICloudius.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Por que?

      • I know longer fear drought. I’ve always loved rain

        • Pfirman

          Pluviophile?

  • Apollo

    Been in Squaw Valley 10 days now and I’m really looking forward to this weekend. I need some natural vitamin D.

    • whisperingsage

      Going down the state then? We don’t get uvb rays until May or June, even with sun. Better take oral 10,000 IU or get a uvb lamp. And vitamin k2 to drive calcium to the right places.

      • Apollo

        A chocolate milk a day! 🙂

        • whisperingsage

          Hardly, would be nice. Lab analysis has shown D in milk is unreliable. Dairy cows aren’t let out on green pasture in sun much, their CAFOd and they must run the milk through uv but it’s not consistent. Also, in winter we need at least 10,000 IU. Dr Sarfraz Zaidi wrote The Power of Vitamin D, his practice is in S CA, he started testing for D ( not usual for docs) , found ONE patient with optimal blood levels, she was a life guard in a swimsuit 5 hrs/ day, 5 days a week.
          What does that tell you?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    starting too think that we could start seeing more colder storms and less AR events

    major snow fall in the mts looks like other 5 too 10ft of snow

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_28.png

  • Crank Tango

    Up here in Burney (3200 feet), we ended up with about 1/2 foot of snow last night. Forecast was for just a twelfth of a foot.

    #bust

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    follow by some really heavy snow fall in the foothills and mts with other 5 to 10ft

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011212/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_swus_33.png

  • Sumster

    Major down pour in Huntington Beach

    • whisperingsage

      Put a bucket out! Measure it!

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    3″ of snow fell overnight, and it is still snowing lightly. Bear Valley is going to have a banner weekend.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    we have a dusting of snow on the hills be hid me from are little snow event this AM but none stuck here has we are right at the bass of the mt

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    looks like things are trending dryer on the 12 GFS this may be a trend or bad run will have to see on the 18z

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The 12z seems to be the worst run of the day

  • matthew

    Disqus has been different for the past couple of days. The screen used to update when new posts came in (i.e. “5 new messages…” or something like that). Now the only way I can see new posts is to refresh the entire screen which then kills visibility to what is new. Anyone else seeing this?

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I wonder what is wrong with Disqus

    • maddogokp

      Check your browser settings or clear history/cache. I’m not having a problem. BTW do you have power in Glenshire?

      • matthew

        Nothing changed with my browser. I see the problem on multiple devices (iPad, Laptop, etc.).

        And yes, we got power back at around 2 p.m. yesterday afternoon.

        BTW – I needed to refresh this page to see your response.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          I believe I might be seeing the same issue.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      Yes, Daniel (WW Mod) mentioned he had to turn down some settings because of the high volume.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      It’s happening on my end as well.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      From Daniel two days ago “Note: due to extremely high server load today, I had to enable some aggressive page cacheing that is not playing nicely with Disqus. You may need to manually refresh page to see newest comments until I disable the caching once the traffic dies down…”

      • matthew

        Missed that….likely because it was buried in other posts when I needed to refresh the page. I thought it was a side-effect of blocking a couple of the high quantity/low content users.

        Thanks.

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          I agree with you, some people are dominating this blog that really need to stop.

          • matthew

            The “block user” feature helps a lot.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            It is such a struggle because it is so entertaining at the same time…

          • matthew

            “Entertaining” quickly turned to “annoying” for me.

          • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

            I know, I should just do it. I am getting toO snarky with him.

    • whisperingsage

      Yes, it’s a pill. Luckily I get 4 G out in the boonies. When we’re in Reno I get 1 G or not at all.

      • Phil(ontario)

        Yes Daniel had to change this because of the thousands of comments coming in it was ruining the server.

    • inclinejj

      I noticed that also. Sometimes it updates other times it updates to an hour or two ago. Probably due to heavy site traffic.

      • matthew

        A couple thousand posts a day is not heavy traffic. Heck, a couple thousand an hour would not overwork a decent server. Thousands a minute, maybe.

        Something else is wrong.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    after JAN 23rd storm i would not mind at all for a week or 2 of dry weather it will help things dry out some

    i dont mind the rain ever now and then but this is a little to much at one time so some drying out time is much needed

    • scott

      I’m with you Master. I like the rain but its making commuting and roof problems nightmarish. As someone said above, I need some Vitamin D3 for a week or so.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      It does look like a ridge will pop up after the next series of storms until at least the 28th. It could just as well end up being undercut later by another set of storms after that. It seems to be the setup this season.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    looks like a hole lot of nothing after JAN 23rd wish would be grate for once

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      So wait, what about after the 23rd of January?

      • gedawei

        looks like a whole lot of nothing after JAN 23rd, which would be great for once
        (Thanks Google Translate)

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          Good idea, must use going forward.

  • TBinRC

    Love it when the Yosemite High Sierra cam looks like this:

    http://pixelcaster.com/yosemite/webcams/sentinel.jpg

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Latest system has been overperforming for parts of LA County. NWS Oxnard was calling .5″ – 1″ for the entire event, and they tweeted a graphic last night that showed even less than that (below).

    It poured on and off last night, and through this morning at my location in Downey and I already have over 1″ in the gauge, with the main band of rain still offshore, which should hit in the next few hours.

    I noticed during my commute to Costa Mesa that OC hadn’t received that much yet.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e21f551bcabb4b8056ae5f08d9df2fbb8653490de500676f0596d7bf09710b98.jpg

    • Tom

      Yes here in Trabuco it hasn’t rained at all this morning. Pavement is dry.

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        It’s pouring now in Costa Mesa, it should hit your area pretty soon.

        • whisperingsage

          Got a bucket out? Report back.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            No bucket here, but a nice office window, and the rain is a nice sight to see.

    • rainingintheLBC

      They blew it with the forecast, already near 1″ here in long beach.

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      Only .08 here so far this morning but it is starting up again. Looks like the main band is still working its way onshore.

    • Under performed up here but you guys are getting great rain!

  • honzik

    SCMtns Update: About 0.6″ of rain last night, bringing us to almost 53″ for the rain season, just shy of our 54″ normal. The mountains are soaked with little (or bigger) mudslides throughout. Everything is very green, which is nice.

    On the downside, there is a section of highway 17 just outside of Los Gatos between The Cats saloon and Lexington reservoir that winds in a double “S” curve, hugging the canyon sides. Parts of this section have no shoulder, and the crumbly cliff on the southbound side is stabilized, I kid you not, with a giant chain link fence draped over the dirt. That “fortification” is now in tatters and the big mudslide has paralyzed the traffic in and out of the valley.

    This section is notorious – there was a tanker crash a while back there, and because there’s no shoulder, people were trapped in their cars and couldn’t get away.

    I don’t know why they couldn’t bypass the double “S” curve with a single slightly curved bridge that took traffic over Los Gatos Creek at The Cats and connecting it back with 17 just before the reservoir. It certainly would be a lot safer than what is there now.

    • whisperingsage

      I have seen that chain link draping effect in so many places, I never understood the engineering either. They have it over some rock slide areas too, to no great use.

      • Kriss

        Maybe not in that area but many that have rocks falling from the side cut, it keeps the rocks from getting to the road in many cases. They aren’t meant to contain slides in large scales just to keep the random rocks from slamming into a car or windshield.

        • whisperingsage

          Feather River Canyon ( hwy 70) a few years ago a boulder blocked the road, lady hit it and died. Curvy road. Sad little chain links. Lucky it’s not a greatly busy road. Beautiful drive in spring.

          • Kriss

            Again, they aren’t meant for slides or boulders…they are made to keep rocks…say a 25-50 pound rock from un lodging itself from the bank and tumbling off the side and hitting cars as they pass. It would take a ton more engineering and way more materials to stop boulders and large scale slides.

            Then on the other hand they could just shut the road down as unsafe and be done with it. The chain link fencing is just to stop the small stuff.

    • Maybe an EIR needed to consider removing the “turn off air conditioner to prevent boilover” sign. Then legislation to decide if it’s necessary to replace it. Other than that rerouting and building a bridge in that area should be a snap.

  • Charlie B

    It is snowing moderately in South Reno. NWS has upgraded snow amounts to 3″-8″ with more down south. Not Truckee/Tahoe amounts, but a nice fall for this desert location.
    They are calling this a “Tonopah low” setup, which produces more snow in the Great Basin and east slope of the Sierra’s than in other places.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Tonopah Lows can be the stuff of legend; I recall one particular forecast where Howard Sheckter wrote about them almost mythically. I’d love to hit June after a major one.

      • Aloha12

        Yeah the snowfall rates right now at Mammoth, judging by the cams, appear higher than anytime of seen the last couple weeks.

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        “The Face” at June will be ready to go for the first time in years. I’m stoked!

    • Yolo Hoe

      How’s your wagon train holding up?

      • Charlie B

        young’uns are sick and the old dog might go next mother is holding us togthr

  • KrisKastForecast

    1.15 north long beach, overperforming nicely 🙂

  • CHeden

    O.K. geeks.
    Here’s the 7-day satellite loop (from Weathernet.com) so you can do your own “validation” on what you thought was going to happen and what really did.

    BTW, I copied the file from WN and posted on Youtube because the video streaming from WN keeps skipping and interrupting.

    https://youtu.be/OjEmSPBPoSM

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      That was great! It would be epic if we had a time lapse for the whole winter!

    • Pfirman

      California as a jet stream punching bag.

      • CHeden

        Or target practice. Take your pick.

    • Chris

      Are you sure this is the right address? I can’t open it. I love this long movie. Can you send me the link please?

      • CHeden

        Here’s the youtube URL:

        999https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OjEmSPBPoSM

        • Chris

          Thanks!

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    12z through Saturday: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011212/gfs_apcpn_swus_12.png Looks like higher totals than previous runs. The wrap around moisture for south SD County 🙂

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Wow!! It’s pouring down rain in Van Nuys and I’ve got cells training right over my house!! Been raining since I fell asleep. Dang and I’ve got to drive to work in Burbank right now. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/39bbeedb9983b041867e10ef77f3a19a74af73fe8878aea97675e0aa756b269a.png

  • honzik

    I just noted: The drought monitor map has changed significantly this week. All of California north of SF is now officially out of the drought.

    • Nathan

      staggering improvement

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Will be interesting to see what this looks like after the next series of storms slated for the 2nd half of next week, assuming they materialize as models suggest.

    • malnino

      What a beautifully blanched map that is now! …18 months ago it looked like a charred rib-eye steak.

    • alanstorm

      Mendocino Co officially drought free.