Northern California storm onslaught continues; widespread flooding likely this evening

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 10, 2017 3,368 Comments

Recent storms set stage for high-impact event today

Another powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and high-elevation blizzard conditions to Northern California. NCEP via UCSD.

This will be a brief update, but given the widespread significant storm impacts expected later today I felt a quick post was in order.

A very warm and wet “Pineapple Express”-type atmospheric river (with origins in the subtropics) brought widespread rainfall to California over the weekend, even at very high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Flooding, mudslides, and avalanches shut down most major travel corridors through Northern California on Sunday for at least some period of time, and a number of larger rivers have approached or exceeded flood stage.

Early model forecasts for this weekend storm were remarkably on-target, especially with regard to the large-scale storm details. One modest mitigating factor that prevented the weekend storm from bringing even more severe impacts was the slight lag between the arrival of the deepest atmospheric moisture and the arrival of the cold front. This “phasing issue” meant that while orographically favored higher elevation areas saw the expected prodigious rainfall totals, areas near sea level or “rain shadowed” by mountain saw less precipitation than otherwise would have occurred.

Soils are completely saturated and rivers already running very high following this weekend’s storm, however, and now a new storm is bearing down on California this afternoon. Since virtually all precipitation that falls over the next 24 hours will immediately turn into river/stream runoff, the flood threat later today may actually be higher in many places that during the weekend storm.

 

Very heavy rain, locally very strong winds, and epic blizzard conditions in Sierra Nevada

Northern California, particularly the Bay Area and central Sacramento Valley, will be under a strong” jet streak” this evening, enhancing precipitation and wind potential. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Today’s storm will bring an wide range of severe weather conditions to Northern California over the next 18 hours.

Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Very strong winds are also possible near the time of cold frontal passage this evening. In the hills and in other wind-prone locations, wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible (and winds greatly in excess of 100 mph are likely on remote, high elevation peaks in the Sierra Nevada). Of potentially even greater consequence will be wind gusts over 50 mph in less wind-prone urban areas in the Bay Area and Sacramento region, where widespread power outages and tree damage is likely. Wind impacts with this storm will likely be more significant than with the Sunday storm.

With strong storm-scale dynamics, increasingly cold air aloft, and a fairly well-defined cold frontal passage this evening, thunderstorms will be possible (especially near the coast). Some of these could even approach severe limits, bringing torrential downpours and very strong wind gusts.

In the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard of epic proportions is currently unfolding. In contrast to the Sunday storm, snow levels are now below well below pass level in most places. Multiple feet of snow have already fallen at the highest elevations, at it’s likely that areas as low as Lake Tahoe could see 5+ feet (!) of snowfall, with much more than that up at 8000+ feet. Very strong winds are also occurring. Travel across the Sierra Nevada range will be dangerous (and essentially impossible) over the next 24 hours. Snowfall of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in years in most populated parts of the Sierra Nevada, which may elevate impacts even further.

Once again, Southern California will see some rain out of this storm, but since totals will remain on the low side no significant problems are expected.

 

Long range: a much-needed break, but more storms on horizon?

Long range ensemble forecast: more storms to come after modest 3-5 day break. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I’ll keep this section short: after another weak to moderate (and colder) system on Wednesday/Thursday (which could bring snow to the foothills and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, including Southern California), things should dry out for 3-5 days. This will allow rivers to recede and soils to drain a bit. But both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an active pattern over the North Pacific may redevelop by next week. Stay tuned!

For updates on today’s storm, follow Weather West on Twitter!

 

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  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    snow plows have a lot of work ahead of them

    • Bombillo1

      All their work is ahead of them.

  • SantaCruz

    Here we have an amazing 19″ for the month and 45.5″ for the season

    • LBurk

      Yep. 25″+ here in Ben Lomond for January only. Checking on YTD.

    • Rio Rat

      Here in Santa Cruz, Jan total 7.98, season total 23.45 per National Weather Service, big difference between sea level & up the hill,maybe change your logo.

  • Siernev

    Crazy wet here in Placerville. As of 7am,
    — 10.5″ since Saturday (and counting)
    — 14.7″ so far in January
    — 38.8″ season YTD

    30-year normal for entire season is 40.0″.

    I’m with Cap’n…may be sacrilegious but I am VERY ready for a sunny break this weekend.

    • Bombillo1

      Apostate.

    • That’s more then I would care for too. Looks like you will get a few days to dry out before the next deluge.

      • Siernev

        I’ll take it. I’m not complaining, I love getting the rain, just need a few days to dry out like you said.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Steady moderate rain and pushing an inch, watching the thermometer waiting for it to drop (36)

    But really all I want are some more snow pics ??

  • nunbub

    Folsom dam has five spillways open and the lake looks like it’s topped 80% full. They can’t seem to get the water out fast enough…

  • weathergeek100

    What I thought was the grand finale last night (the actual cold front) was a mistake. A post frontal thunderstorm came right over me (Emeryville) around 1130 last night with a super heavy downpour/wind combo. There was only one strike of lightning but the loud thunder at the same time meant it was right on top of me! First true thunderstorm of the season last night here in the East Bay.

  • Cap’n
    • RunningSprings6250

      Damn that rain!!! Thanks for the pics!

      I’ll go shovel the wet berm out in my driveway just to be in the spirit n all!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Looks like this storm means the winter will be one where there are stairs UP just to get out of some homes. You’ll be seeing the sunshine after the snow melts by July 4th…

  • Charlie B

    A UFO has been sighted over Reno. It is a bright round object that rose from the east and is slowly moving across the sky. I will try to post pics later.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    Im too fixated on Norcal stealing the show. I have to appreciate how wonderful it is down here also! This is the GFS 72 hr, and we look to be getting more rain in Socal. Our rain patterns have been a little odd this year but very effective. Im still waiting for Socal to get a nice slam dunk storm over tail end and AR type rain, but Ill take this anytime over the Socal GFS donut hole! Cheers to an active rest of the season! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7b1041c9d93abcbad9211c1ecceb386f8d406fc13227aff2d0bd3e269927ab69.png

  • April hope brings May nope

    It almost seems as if the Yolo Bypass is creating a radar return. I cannot post a pic at this time, but, like the Rio Vista windmill farm, there’s a steady return over the upper portion of the bypass. Perhaps fog?

    And I’m a noob who doesn’t know the proper terminology, but there it is.

    • Mark (Sac)

      Those are false returns…I have read birdlife/insects around the causeway can be the cause sometimes

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Steady rain in San Jose even though radar shows a few small blips. Either I am under the blip, or radar is missing the rain https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8726c6d4c42d4294865ff0e1b85693be7b250fcf5641a249a861decb7383c27c.png

    • Jeff

      picked up 0.08 in less than 15 minutes last night in San Diego with a very similar appearance

  • Cap’n

    Second vehicle dig. Solid 12-18″ since taking 4 1/2 feet off it yesterday. Snowing pretty hard again. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8139cf18e4d93b2b8d1dba16fe079a6ac0492e41659324bc2742c8fcec04ce17.jpg

    • weathergeek100

      No need for a gym membership!

  • Yolo Hoe

    Temperature peaked in Davis at 53F at 0121 this morning — dropped steadily to 47F 30 minutes ago — assuming colder temperatures heading towards the Sierra.

  • Tangocity

    This years rains were everything we hoped for and expected from last years El Nino. Sitting at 7 inches at my locale in the Oxnard plain. More than 1.5″ ahead of normal. A big 0.28 last night with another quarter to half inch predicted in the next 24-36 hours. The local flood creek is actually flowing and the hills are beautiful and green. Can’t wait to hike them when the mud dries a little.

    • gedawei

      Agree completely re El Niño expectations, green hills and hiking.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      It goes to show how unpredictable weather can be despite all the science and historical records out there

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        I wonder if the results of a rain event are somehow fed back into computer models. This would avoid them always calling on big numbers in places we all know are in a rain shadow, or too far south, etc.

        • Someone else

          The models are based on science and physics, they do not utilize historical data. NWS discussions on the other hand are evaluations on the model output and human interpretation, which would include analysis of past similarly forecast events.

  • Pacifica weather observer

    Current conditions for Pacifica. Scattered showers light rain falling. Storm total 1.77 inches. 51 degrees and Westerly winds to about 10 miles an hour.

  • 2.6 over Monday through this AM
    11.35 for month IMBY.

    • AlTahoe

      11″ for Morgan hill is pretty incredible in a month. Let alone 2 weeks

  • AlTahoe

    Finally got my power back. That rain made the snow like concrete. The streets have 12″ frozen ruts in them. It’s like autopilot for those of us without teslas.
    Only picked up about 6″ since 5pm last night
    The strong front that hit the Bay Area missed my area somehow

    • Cap’n

      Close to 3′ though? It’s a mess here. Power?

    • Just had a rainbow over El Toro. I think it’s a Tesla dealer installed option here.

  • Jeff Reynolds

    8:37 a.m. Pacific Daylight Savings time: Update on the West Slope:
    Elevation: 4114′ Rained on and off all night, heavy at times.
    current temp: 35.5F precip current storm: 14.42″ which does not include precip reading falling as snow.
    precip season: 47.71 per Vantage Pro2 weather station.

  • Charlie B

    diary entry 1/11.
    still camped in an area called “truckee meadows” near a town of reno. arrived here around the first and hoped to get over the mountains but relentless storms have stopped us. we left springfield thinking the trip would be safe and made it across south pas and the wasach without too much trouble from the Indians. the salt flats were tough and the humboldt was running fast and mudy. made good time until here. provisions are growing scarc. boy complained that if we had direct tv we could check the weather chanel but I had to remind him that we are settlers and settle for cable and will get hooked up once we reach the homestead over in the valley. mother left the last of the flower outside and it got wet and ruined. down to 10 pds of beens some lard and salt pork. if whether doesn’t break soon all might be lost….

    • Crank Tango

      I’m beginning to think taking the Hastings Cutoff wasn’t the best idea out there.

      • Yolo Hoe

        That’s the problem with crowd sourcing

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      word of advice don’t trust that google thing the new people use to try out the Dog Valley Passage, many a life has been lost there..

    • Yolo Hoe

      Your name Graves by chance?

  • Cap’n
    • Yolo Hoe

      That is a picture truly worth a thousand words — can smell the clutch from Davis — and the lower back pain — thanks for maintaining posting discipline!!

    • Nathan

      Lmao looks like an old Citroen

    • SBMWill

      Those are some low power lines.

  • bk2ftr (Atascadero)

    14.43″ so far this season in Atascadero! We could call it quits right now and we’d still have had an average year. Absolutely dumped with the last two systems. Atascadero Lake, which had gone completely dry during the drought, is filling very quickly. Just need DFW to put some trout in there!

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    No surprise that 5% of all comments made in the last 72 hours. This is good stuff–multiple drought years and we come back in spades. Lots to share.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Avalanche danger is still listed as High by the Sierra Avalanche Center. The Sierra Sun reported some avalanches have taken out high tension power lines.
    http://www.sierraavalanchecenter.org/advisory/2017/jan/11/2017-01-11-061644-avalanche-advisory#null

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
    • Yolo Hoe

      His dedication and passion is inspiring and much appreciated.

  • weathergeek100

    Solid light rain in San Diego county now. It’s not much but it’s at least keeping things moist down there!

    • Jeff

      i picked up 0.08 last night and another 0.13 early this morning, looks like we have more incoming for at least the northern half of san diego in the next 1-2 hours!

      • Scott Turner

        Light rain in Escondido as well. Not going to put any rivers over flood stage, but it’s keeping things nice and soggy. Even though we’re only getting light showers and tail-end stuff from the big storms, my location (Lake Hodges) is still trending above the January average by about 60-70%.

    • Jeff
  • Bob G (Gustine)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba6c17fc4e0832700f795de4af077d9613554c5c7d4e35bbd1c68a50de9825e2.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a75ce2f0937156cae661ebf2d2dfb2fc4550a98ebdc732d0e0cf85910efc841b.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d7717a885d1da4b28a0f3219c13186eee87b9f7214985fd5234950f50cff3f42.jpg The front came through last night and we ended up at .6 total for the storm. Not bad. Probably a good thing as the creeks are starting to overflow in my area and a big 1.5 inch storm could end up with major flooding. A creek north of our place went over the banks last night flooding neighboring orchards and fields. Lucky that it is rural. The Tuolomne River is near flood stage.

    • Off top of my head Don Pedro is reservoir in Sierra for Tuolumne?

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Yes it is

  • roseland67

    Drought Monitor results get published tomorrow morning,
    If the team could physically get out and measure, I would expect all of California north of San Francisco to be out of drought.

    • RunningSprings6250

      Politicaly anyways.

      • Brentwood_NorCal

        Exactly

    • BRP (Ventura)

      You may be right about this, looking forward to seeing this write-up. One thing is for sure, SBA and VTA counties will still be dark red and the epicenter of the state’s drought, with no end in sight. 6 years does not get erased by a slightly above normal rainfall year.

  • CHeden

    This morning’s VIS is showing clouds are continuing to bank up against the Cent. Sierra, with more to go. Cyclonic flow is evident hugging the SW Oregon coast, while off to the west of San Francisco, yesterday’s GoA low has now completed it’s pivot in back of the mid latitude low that slammed the coast last evening/night.
    HRRR is showing the track of the incoming low right over the Bay Area starting tonight, with heaviest rainfall due around midnight. This low will be carrying cold-air,
    and a period of heavy rain and possible convection will likely produce some local flooding during frontal passage. Hopefully the heaviest rainrates will be brief…but eyes on the radar are recommended as the system approaches.
    As for us up here in the North Valley, we have mostly clear skies with some fair-weather Cu over the hills. Temps are a mild 46F, and I think we’ll see higher temps today than the 51F that’s currently forecast. That also means more daytime heating, which may help to spark off a few convective cells. Would not be surprised to see another convergence zone setup somewhere near Redding once winds from the incoming low start to swing in from the ESE and bump into downsloping winds coming off the Trinities. Last evening, a similar setup dropped nearly over a 1/2″ over the Redding Arpt. (while we stayed dry only 10 miles south).
    Definately an “eye to the sky” day for many of us, fer sure.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fca03412b63b539716a70422ceabbe76c0c77fbe9ab7453aebefa1f332fa624d.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/18ed8762f257122fb9ea601fa6c30d4409f3b0054153ee6665a12e1e6a75a428.gif

    • Yolo Hoe

      Yep — barometer 29.84 and rapidly rising in Davis — absolutely stunning day for sky watching — tonight and tomorrow morning should be another interesting ‘passage’!

    • weathergeek100

      I wonder why NWS Oxnard mentions that this low will not have an over-water trajectory when the HRRR clearly shows it???

      • weathergeek100

        Never mind new discussion increases their projected totals back to 0.5-1″ (earlier discussion mentioned 0.25-0.5″ due to low tracking over land vs water).

      • CHeden

        Different lows.

  • alanstorm

    This is what 300,00+ cubic inches per second (CFS) looks like.
    Eel River at a significant FLOOD STAGE today
    https https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/cfca6bf5605f2953e77b9ee87f2c6e9bdf1b35c7968fba7a569d01248b4931b9.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b94c0fa7209629bef5f1a570cf82fd928c989fb8a926b0b4ffb5691a202df1f6.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba2080ceb15cfbd57a49069e6e5fb5fec17a73ae5402b66e7b3eb2e093338ad4.jpg ://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/11595b078f42443524cf83f92e786e9fedb0e824e5ee2fff063ca2ab66cbbf60.jpg

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      Wow.

    • Robin White

      We’ve had years of cubic inches. We’re in cubic feet territory now.

    • tomocean

      A cubic foot is equal to about the size of a basketball. So think of 300,000 basketballs floating by every second!

      • alanstorm

        And to think Dec 23, 1964 -950,000cfs went by there!

  • Valkyrie
    • scott

      With so much snow in Tahoe and Mammoth and more on the way (looks like another 4-6in on Thursday until things dry out Friday and even then the morning shows a 20% of more snow), I think the resort owners are going to be pressed for time to clear things up since Friday is when the hoards of tourists coming to Tahoe just for selfies. They are going to be expecting everything (roads, bars, stores, resorts, gas stations, etc.) to be fully open and yet onside of the resorts, many smaller roads and stores lack the resources to dig out in less than a day. I know someone hear said they were busy keeping a resort open, but not sure who. Any thoughts?

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        Those were my thoughts too, with roads closed power out it’s hard to get employees moving around. It will be a full court press the next 48 hours or so to dig things out, make sure they’re running correctly and restock the shelves before the population swells to 3xs the normal.

        CalTrans Dist 3 (Tahoe area) did mention they are escorting emergency vehicles and fuel/food deliveries over I80 with 1 lane open. This will help the stores restock to a point but w/out power you can’t store chilled and frozen goods.

        • Charlie B

          hezekiah is headed out this morning with hope to make it to the vally in a few day to alert them of our plight. until then it is meager rations…the old ox joe might be next…

          • scott

            Soylent Green time. Or a more fitting theme…..living like the Donner party.

        • Someone else

          Couldn’t you just put the frozen food in a snowbank? 😉

      • janky

        If I owned a shop in Tahoe/Mammoth I’d be trying my hardest to get everything open because it is a holiday weekend and the potential for sales is high.

      • I think that was me, and yeah we are closed for a dig day – the highways into the resort are closed anyways so we are preoccupied fixing and digging. We got blasted. Drift outside my window is now 25-30 feet tall, and it wasn’t there last week.

        • gray whale

          Do you guys expect to be in good shape tomorrow or is there a chance you’ll stay closed?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    New reports of a levee breach in the Thorton area below Sacramento. Looks to be in a vineyard form the pics above. Thinking this might just be the beginning as we look at the long term GFS, not a lot of time for areas to dry out before the next round starts.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    BA said on Opensnow the various models are coming into agreement with the GFS that the storm door opens next week and the rain starts again. He stated the GFS has been really good in 2017 and I tend to agree.

  • scott

    My area of the far southern Sierra under performed the predictions by a huge amount. NWS predicted between 0.61 and 1.12in of ppt for Walker Basin around the Kern and Tulare county lines at 3500ft and we only got 0.2in while the higher elevations of the Piutes above 6000feet only got 0.45in. That is like a 60-70% percent error in science. We did have really strong winds however all night long so on that front they were spot on.

    I wonder if the orographics fell apart this far to the south. I was watching radar most of the evening and the storms didn’t get to Fresno county until after dark and seemed to fall apart as the evening went on. With so much ppt since Christmas, I am not complaining as the creeks are still flowing nicely and we have time to let the rain absorb in the ground. I bet this spring the wildflowers are going to be amazing.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      It did. The storm stalled to the north of us yesterday and by the time it sagged south it lost punch. We got about half of what was forecasted yesterday

      • scott

        You’re 100% on. It was supposed to hit Kern by 4pm and at 4pm it was still around Merced. That also explains why the north got hit so bad yesterday whereas Friday-Sunday’s storms at least went north then back south again. ARs are tricky to predict with such a narrow band.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          They are. I remember last year Southern CA was supposed to get pounded by an AR storm and the storm ended up north and pounded our area. They ended up with far less rain than predicted

    • Nathan

      I noticed this as well. The Giant Forest webcam at Sequoia/Kings Canyon NP shows like 2 paltry inches of snow. Really seems like the front did not hold together as it moved S.

    • Aloha12

      Yeah Mammoth underperformed expectations for last 24-36 hours.

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • alanstorm

      Beneficial!

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      Coming soon to a City of Berkeley faucet.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        LOL, not this water. It is all headed out to the delta and then the ocean

        • The flow will probably carry the remaining 13,000 smelt with them. Then what? Send out more water to find them. LOL

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            LOL, I don’t think anyone could find that many smelt if they tried.

  • alanstorm

    Eel R Delta overrun by 300,000cfs. Ocean with high tides in the foreground, town of Ferndale in the distance
    https https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fcf96db5f00d86d328718523d38f4ddf9c396e27af38a577ccc9ca955d107a35.jpg ://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f61c861e91361e6b7e0fc5d60fada3e771db216c0555c7ecfeef8619430f89d2.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Your wife still pissed?

      • alanstorm

        Naw. She understands. A man’s got his priorities

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
  • IMLCO, The Pacific Ocean looks similar to Jan 1890. Anomalies look a little higher/lower than now, but the general pattern is kinda there. It’s the closest match that I can find as far as the SSTA being on a mostly lateral and not a delta shape in North Pacific. South Pacific looks kinda close to Jan 1890, too.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a3c67806ab1599355bd83f59e30a4e91e2f36578c2b1abd522f245e5f958bbfb.jpg

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Was 1890 a wet year for CA?

      • 1889-90 was highest recorded rainfall in San Jose at a little over 30″. Beat 82-83 which is 2nd highest. Don’t have stats for 1861-62. SFO reported almost 50 in 1861-62 year. 47 in 1997-98 and 45″ for 1889-90.
        Forgot to answer your question…yes it was :))

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

          Awesome. I hope it comes to be! For San Jose at least. I know some folks don’t want anymore rain.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Love these historical perspectives and comparisons — valuable and enjoyable insights — thanks!

    • Sublimesl

      And how do they know the ocean temps in 1890?

    • nunbub

      Ok, I can usually figure out the acronyms on this board, but can you please explain “IMLCO”? Thanks…

  • Nathan

    Mt. Rose webcams – every view, every station, working perfectly. Impressive.

    And wouldn’t you know, it’s nuking up there…

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a0d6d08b0a517fb4367b41240510b806775a9c93c4d5a2874485d88fa6360907.jpg

  • janky

    Literally stuck on my side of the mountain in the Santa Cruz Mountains this morning. There’s no way down the hill with Highway 9 closed and mountain roads to Highway 17 blocked. Drive home last night was insane, 2+ hours for what is usually 30 minutes due to Highway 17 slide. Some photos and a crazy video of my drive last night.

    https://www.dropbox.com/s/0ckpvxp00u0fcnm/IMG_1248.MOV?dl=0

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/89b8ccafb66d6115858cfa32890aa318695fd91fed99889d0fd4371bca379358.png
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/97e5d774bd023ccd48f497f33c5681340c6888f11288ea62bb64bd25a5fea18e.jpg

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Whoa!

    • tomocean

      Those chunks of stuff in the road at night would be quite…unnerving.

      • janky

        I had to drive over that slide to get home. The right side is a drop down into a ravine/gully.

    • gray whale
    • Jesse Aaron

      ya i tried to get home last night…i live on the east side of 17, first i came to a giant landslide on highland, like a wall of earth taller than me and wider than the road with 2 giant oak trees on top…so i drove like an hour up around lomo prieta, multiple smaller one lane mudslides up there…finally got to the other side of highland and made my way through an knee deep mudslide, then almost got stuck/flew off the mountain getting out of a thigh deep mudslide..those were like 10-15′ long…then i drove through about 100′ of knee deep water before i came to a 30′ mudslide that looked about waist deep, turned around and drove to santa cruz. I’m staying here until the sun come out.

  • Doug

    Woke up to Oxnard calling this storm an “under performer”–it had predicted a half inch at best for L.A.–but it was pouring outside and when I looked at my rain gauge it was 2.5 inches! A veritable deluge for us in the Colby Fire burn area/east San Gabriels.

    • It flew in and out within minutes here…

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Some pictures from Claycord.com of flooding and other issues around Central CoCo County. Looks like Marsh Creek Rd (around Mt Diablo) and Morgan Territory are still closed due to rock and mudslides.
    http://claycord.com/2017/01/11/the-walnut-creek-under-diamond-blvd-in-concord-before-after-photos/

    • Chris Lyon

      Lots of homeless people live under that bridge. Hopefully they got out

  • Martin (Santee)

    The 12z looking mighty fine for the entire state!

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Look at the rainfall totals from the 12Z on next week’s storm?

    http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017011112/gfs_apcpn_swus_35.png

    • Siernev

      All the precip the Sierra has gotten recently and there are *still* yellows in the 9-day forecast. Wow.

    • Looks like Nor Cal and the Sierra get hammered again.

    • scott

      There are almost no greens anywhere in the entire state, showing everyone should be able to score at least half an inch unless you live out by the Salton Sea, which you’d have to be nuts to live out there anyways.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        Agreed!

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Yes, hope it verifies

      • RunningSprings6250

        Well, there is Bakersfield.

      • Hope that verifies….but, even if it does, I hope the storm will stick around for a bit. The last few storms came in and out too quickly!

  • tomocean
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    The snowfall is remidning me of 1993 which seemed like it snowed just about every day in Jan that year. I found this article from the LA Times about that winter, I do remember people going crazy that winter.

    http://articles.latimes.com/1993-03-29/news/mn-16529_1_snow-blowers

  • janky

    Anyone have tally on how many atmospheric rivers we’ve had so far this year and how many in the last 2 weeks? I see potential for another next week. How many did we have last year and year prior? Curious if anyone is tracking…

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      1st AR event was JAN 3rd too the 5th

      2nd AR event was from 7th too the 9th

      3rd AR event was from JAN 10th too JAN 11th

      • scott

        The round of storms we had around Thanksgiving and then again around Christmas were moderately powerful, but I don’t think any of those were ARs. Wasn’t Daniel talking about some AR that extreme NorCal had back in November sometime if I am mistaken?

      • Thor

        Was yesterday’s storm really an AR? I thought it was more from the GOA and thus the lower snow levels? It had a very pronounced cold front (NCFR) which isnt typical of AR’s I believe…

        • Tuolumne

          It was an AR, with a cold front and GOA low sweeping through from the northwest at the end.

  • Pacifica weather observer
    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Wow that’s almost tropical looking if I didn’t know it was CA!

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      He looks so lonely

    • CHeden

      Must mean SST is at critical temperature?

  • Rio Rat

    .49 for last night here in Aptos,8.09 for Jan so far.Jan 2016 total at this date was 4.62,& that was our big el nino month. San Lorenzo river had major sand flow out to the ocean this last wk,building up the best sandbar since Jan 2005, have some mud pie with those perfect river mouth waves.

  • AlTahoe

    I just got back from heavenly. I was on the first tram and gun barrel was the deepest I have skied it since 2011. I passed right behind jim cantorie while he was doing a live broadcast lol.
    On another not where is the cold air? It started raining at one point at the bottom of heavenly. It is 34F and snowing big slushy flakes. I thought today was temps in the 20’s with drier snow?

    • Hate you, it’s my day off and I’m stuck at a closed resort. No rain here so far

    • RunningSprings6250

      Probably the same reason my 6″-10″ snow for today (forecast less than 24hrs ago) switched to rain and 38.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      looks like The Weather Channel is still camped out in front of the tram, you should have yelled “Muzikman wear your mittens and twirl your poles proudly!”

    • Cap’n

      According to reports Heavenly was the winner.

    • srfrgrl1

      Saw that report and the first chair skiers/riders coming down and whooping behind him…was that you, lol! Me, stuck with roof and crawlspace flooding 🙁

  • RunningSprings6250

    2″ since last night and raining pretty darn hard right now!

    • click

      Moisture was hugging the berdos this morning, light drizzle (maybe .02″) spilled into the desert briefly but raining decently in the pass and down in the IE.
      Looking forward to this weekend in Big Bear!
      Sunny in riverside now

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Squaw Valley sent out a nixle update-recommending some residents evacuate the high avalanche prone areas.

    “We are recommending that residents of homes rated High or Moderate in the Squaw Valley Potential Avalanche Area evacuate until the threat of avalanche subsides. Large, natural avalanches have occurred within the Squaw Valley Resort on slopes with similar aspect, which indicates that a slide from the Sandy Way or other starting zones is likely.”

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. 1.75 inches in the rain bucket. Sun came out for a few minutes earlier this morning.

    The coyotes were really vocal last night from 12 am till after 2am. Kept waking up all the neighborhood dogs.

  • Cap’n
    • gray whale

      what a great feeling

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Woohoo Power is back…at last for part of town. Looks like TD is still without power. They’ve opened the Clubhouse for warming up and to charge up mobile devices. http://www.tahoedonner.com/news/2017/01/10/extreme-weather/

      • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

        My power is back in TD- and HOLY WE COWS!!!!!!! that snow is above the sliding glass door… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5b64c0753f5a5989870cbdcc18e007cbf7bb9124b854632ef0aefdeae5d2c868.jpg

        • Cap’n

          Right on! This is a tough one to call totals on for me. I’m quite sure I was well over 5 feet before going to bed. Woke up with another 4″ and we’ve had some heavy snow showers today. But I don’t like to overstate, I’d rather understate, so I’m just going to call it an even 5 feet here at West End. Combine that with the 4 feet from last week and 8.2″ of rain, helluvah start to the new year.

          • gray whale

            Five Foot Hawaiian is probably the way to go

          • Cap’n

            Haha good point! What Californians call 6 foot Hawaiians call 3.

          • My car is buried in I want to say between 8-10 feet of snow.

    • tomocean

      Truckee is such a great town to visit. Tough to keep my wife out of those boutique shops whenever we go.

    • TruckeeLover

      My family and I also love that town! I’m super appreciative of the photos you post and the info you provide. These will make my day! Enjoy your (our) town!

    • TruckeeLover

      Can you clean the lens of the hotel camera?!

  • WalkmanJG

    http://www.sfgate.com/weather/article/Storms-wipe-away-chunk-of-I-80-exit-in-Colfax-10850805.php

    Wow… That’s one substantial sink hole… I don’t know the area at all so I have no idea how impactful this is but still…

    • tomocean

      Not a highly trafficked area, though I’m sure it will bother the local residents a bit.

    • That doesn’t look like a sinkhole. I’m guessing a clogged (or undersized) culvert that caused flooding of the road that eventually undermined it. Here’s a nice example of that on youtube

      • rainingintheLBC

        I agree, although there are some carbonate rocks in the sierra foothills and a sinkhole is theoretically possible, that looks like a culvert blowout.

        • willb

          I was watching the news and they reported it as a “sink hole.” It is no big deal, but really? It is a culvert that was washed out…

          • Siernev

            In journalism, every road collapse is a sinkhole, just like every cold snap on the east coast is a polar vortex.

    • roseland67

      Looks like a bunker I was in at Brandon Dunes

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    the GFS say i could see other 8 too 10″ of rain with next events

    if that happens we are going too be in big trouble

    this rain fall map is out too thurday JAN 19th look at the rain fall

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/668a4dd5179d16cc9564670d0de1d93c3bef803d05fcbb40ddb77ad3296c7459.png

    this is rain fall out too

    312hrs

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/22890122c6dc9965b8687835939e85c6253e3d2a635e1f75db3dbbce03030820.png

    here is storm 1

    this is going too be major and we are going too be in a lot of trouble

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/26e3292355f6128d80fcc9cd1a725fe448838f2738ec070f3f99a231f93642f8.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ba9e06d40661837763406818bce0b13c828d528469511551cf06f73866e96e4e.png

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7bb73a2da79c7364939e9fc8fc5b86729da9563c25b155121fa41a5fac1ff66b.png

    in between storms we got some l light too mod storms and the be cold ones has well

    then we get the next big one

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9b522c5b279149c1bfef98c828fa3705a2b28361fe6ac2e5bf3f8058825e5c9b.png

    • Freddy66

      You said you were going to be in trouble this week. Were you?

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        we ended up with 8.36″ of rain with the two storms if we get other 8 to 10 ” of rain on top of what has fallen this week we are going too have a lot of issue around here

        • RunningSprings6250

          But you’re the STORM MASTER! BRING IT!!!

          • gray whale

            Maybe he truly is! Storm Master has worked the best out of all the handles. Way better than Low Snow Levels.

          • Storm master (Sonora CA)

            i try too bring good luck too every one

          • Crank Tango

            Thank you.

          • Storm master (Sonora CA)

            i dont mind 1″ or 2″ here or there but i think this is over the top a little

          • RunningSprings6250

            So you’re fallacy….I’m crushed…

          • scott

            LOL

    • tomocean

      I tend to agree with you. At some point, the saturated soils and waterways simply can handle it. It seems like the major concern area is going to be the levee system in the valley.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        We have reached that point already in some parts of the valley although the creeks should retreat some this week.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      At least snow levels will be lower than those warm AR’s we were getting. Let’s build that snowpack. As of today, Southern Sierra is at 180+% of Normal. Let’s keep it going!

  • Snead Hearn

    It happens every decade or so. People shouldn’t live on floodplains and expect to stay dry.

    • Charlie B

      It’s kind of like people who build their houses near an Hawaiian volcano and then are shocked when a lava flow takes it out.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    hey weather W are you out there some where ? what is your take on my post? on the GFS for next week i would like too here what you think

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    Drizzle is picking up to a very soft rain. Know this is the weaker of the two systems this week but I’m loving every second of it.

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)
    • nunbub

      This looks very similar to 500mb height anomaly maps from the 90’s good years…

    • Craig Matthews

      This would be perfect for sierra snow.

      • Bartshe

        and monster wind

  • Robin White
    • thebigweasel

      Incredible. We’re a full month ahead of ’82-’83!

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        and we the GFS is right well you no the rest

  • cmptxt

    How does the big picture look and the drought in No CA?

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    what we are seeing today with the weather is all most like lake effect rain has this rain has been training over the same area this AM

  • nunbub
  • Mike (Mill Valley)

    3.25″ from yesterdays storm, total since Friday – 7.25″.
    Not too bad, we’ve had much bigger storms but with the storms coming in one after another it’s starting to get impressive.
    Sounds like a needed break after tomorrow and then the door opens up again.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    The CHP has some humor before they open up 80 pretty quickly-
    https://www.facebook.com/chp.truckee/videos/1852350198310276/

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • VK (Sacramento)

      what are these, thumb nails for ants?

  • GusLevy

    Well, that was fun…I think.

    Drizzle/light rain for most of the day yesterday until the rainstorm hit SoCal around bedtime last night. The daughter was sick so I woke a few times during the night and noticed the rain seemed to be coming down well but didn’t think too much about it.

    Took the kid to doctor this morning and the rain had stopped at that point. Nothing seemed drastic – presumed that we received the forecast for 0.25-0.50″ish rain.

    Anyhoo, just went to the backyard and noticed that the buckets lying around were a bit higher than I would have guessed – and also that the pool was a lot higher than what was presumed.

    So I just checked the SoCal rain gauge site and the numbers come out like a Rohrschach Test: Numbers are all over the place. Palos Verdes shows barely 0.10″, the Valley and Mid-City are around 0.35″, Orange County around 0.25″.

    Here in La Canada my local gauge shows 2.28″ for the past 24 hours! The San Gabriel Powerhouse gauge shows 4.06″! The numbers in the San Gabriels are literally off-the-charts for this storm…most show at least 1″ and many closer to 2″.

    I guess that this system got stuck in the mountains here in the east side…wowza.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Yes, the upper elevations did very well because of the low level moisture flow and orographic enhancement. Here in the flatlands I received 0.17″ yesterday and 0.33″ this morning in mostly drizzle/light rain. Looking forward to our next system which should bring more precip (1/2″ to 1″) for my area.

      • GusLevy

        Crazy. You are probably less than 10 miles away from an area that got over 4″ in the same time…the good news is that the dumpage occurred where we have one of our large reservoir systems.

      • Upslope

        I think it was a situation where we had low-level flow coming in form the due West, over the Conejo Grade and into the Valley. It banked up against the San Gabes front and you had orographics wringing out the moisture but nothing made it over the to the back side where Big Pines is.

    • Y. Pestis

      Lytle Creek is in the far eastern edge of the San Gabriel’s, so you must have sucked up all our decent precip. Lucky if I got 0.10 from the most recent storm.
      I’ve noticed the storms feeding in from the northwest headed southeast tend to be more productive in my location.

      • GusLevy

        It’s almost crazy. Big Pines which is deeper in the San Gabriels and San Bernardino which is in the SGV but a bit east reports just 0.50″…this storm literally puked chunks in a thin 20-mile channel from here east to Rancho Cucamonga.

        It’s a high-class whine but I wouldn’t have minded a tad less and more for you guys since I will need to dump water out of the pool now since we are expecting more rain in the near future.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        Don’t know how close you are to the San Antonio Dam (eastern San Gabriels) but they’ve received 3.15″ over the last 24 hrs.

        • Y. Pestis

          Not very close. Further east and north

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • scott

      I am glad for Heavenly. They suffered more than almost all other resorts the most during the worst years of the drought. I think in 2014-2015 they closed really early like late February or earlier. Good for them.

      • They didn’t close early. I was there skiing til my birthday, which is when they close.

        • Tuolumne

          Connections, huh? 😉

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    since mid night we pick up other 1.15″ of rain

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    we are all most at 5″ of rain for this storm

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      How much in the last 10 minutes?

      • Storm master (Sonora CA)

        we now have 1.18″ of rain

  • thlnk3r
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      I posted this yesterday, but I’m glad you reposted it, since it got lost in the “flood” of comments here 😉
      That’s a doozy of a low pressure anomaly along the West!

      • thlnk3r

        Yeah. The forum has been very busy (for obvious reasons). Posts are disappearing fast 😉

    • Bartshe

      Hudson Bay High, my Precious.

  • mosedart (SF)

    5% of the 160k comments made in the past 72 hours. Of those, 90% were made by Storm Master.

    • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

      I wonder how much rain he has now.

      • Crank Tango

        1.20″

        • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

          Outdated, probably up to 1.22″ with 12″ for the year, 4″ in the last 48 hours. Separate posts for each measurement.

    • Aloha12

      Being the Storm Master has its privileges…

    • scott

      LOL. Can we get Dan to publish a list from most to least of who blogs the most here? We can give them a mock weather dweeb award for being #1.

    • Charlie B

      Orcutt updates were pretty impressive as well.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Also Runningsprings as well

      • rainingintheLBC

        gotta know the status of those frogs.

  • Craig Matthews
  • Cap’n

    Them are some good totals for January 11th and they obviously don’t reflect rain either. Heck of a water year up here so far. SugarBowl at 328″ Shakah! Snowing pretty good at the moment again. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7cd0cab264f58b634d1d7ffdf59ab316b5eec02f87303485b936407f564ba9dd.png

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      You can really see the difference with elevation looking at Mt Rose as opposed to Diamond Peak. Hopefully not too many more high elevation snow events.

  • Craig Matthews
  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    this is now the wettest JAN on ever

    1st AR event from JAN 3rd too JAN 5th we pick up 2.23″ of rain

    AR event # 2 from JAN 7th too JAN 9th we picked up 4.11″ of rain

    AR event # 3 from JAN 10th too JAN 11th we picked up 4.65″ of rain

    then we had some weak insider low event back on the 1st wish gave us .25″ of rain

    add all of this up we have seen 11.24″ of rain for JAN and we are not done yet

    most of that came from JAN 7th too JAN 11th and we pick up 8.76″ of rain

    • nunbub

      Nobody likes to be that guy, but you keep using “too” instead of “to”. Just thought should be aware… 🙂

      • Admode (Susanville)

        It’s been said before that he may use a talk to text sort of device.

        • Aloha12

          would be helpful if the Storm Master would confirm or deny this.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Why should he? Does it really ruin your day when someone writes too instead of to?

          • Aloha12

            ‘Too’ and ‘to’ was another poster above – pay attention. My beef yesterday was ‘march’ and ‘much’. Didn’t ruin my day, but it made is slightly less than it otherwise might have been.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            If you paid attention you would notice it’s only certain words that are misspelled and they are misspelled every time. The constant “march” instead of “much” should give you the answer you are looking for. Personally, I don’t see how it lessens his posts. This is the comment section of a weather blog, it’s not a doctoral thesis.

          • Aloha12

            Maybe the spelling is the ‘straw’ and the root of irritation is the prolific posting as others have noted.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Yep. He’s clearly stoked about weather. No better place for him to be apart of.

          • jstrahl

            I think it’a quite obvious that he is.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Wettest January up there and we’ve still got almost 3 full weeks left in the month with models hinting at more significant storms later next week!

  • mattzweck
  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Cumulus clouds are popping up again today

  • WalkmanJG

    Potentially totally irrelevant question but has this winter been harsh enough and wet enough to slow the onslaught of the bark beetle?

    • matthew

      As someone who lives in the forest, yes and no. Lack of water weakens trees which lets the beetles proliferate. So a wet winter helps the trees defend themselves. But they do not succumb to “harsh” conditions (i.e. cold weather). They have evolved to survive that.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Are there any natural predators that help to keep the bark beetle population in check?

        • matthew

          Woodpeckers, wasps, etc. But I don’t think they do enough damage to really have an impact. The best cure is water. The trees natural defense when attacked is to push sap out, basically drowning the beetles when they bore in. When the trees are dehydrated they cannot produce the sap in the quantities needed and the beetles win.

          • Tuolumne

            That’s the usual explanation. However, sap (thin and water-based) and pitch (thick and hydrocarbon-based) are not the same thing. It’s the heavy, sticky pitch that pushes out grubs just starting to burrow in, but it won’t push out the hundreds of grubs that are deep inside feeding galleries. Not sure if healthy trees can just drown the grubs in pitch in that case.

            I think a lot of trees out there have serious infestations that are not obvious yet and which will still kill the tree eventually. Look for a lot more mortality in the next year or two as a lagged effect of the drought.

        • Ochotona_Princemps

          Woodpeckers love bark beetle larva, but it is hard for them to dent massive infestations.

    • Bartshe

      Seems relevant to me…Need this year to finish wet and a couple more to follow before you can completely arrest outbreak. No question this is helping, but the damage will continue through 2017.

    • Tuolumne

      Extreme cold can kill them in the Rockies (cold that’s been missing in recent decades), but it doesn’t get as cold over here.

  • matthew

    Finally have power again after 14 hours. It is a glorious day in the shire. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6b451da7bc61f3b634ebe8d6b93e7886b7b4c44e58a79fc45bdc5c42f13faa6e.jpg

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Postcard-worthy. Beautiful!

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I was thinking the same exact thing!

    • Cap’n

      Right on!

      • Pfirman

        Decked out, as in I’m sure he had a deck.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)
    • Drew Stofflet

      2 storms out, or 3?

    • click

      I see nothing out of the ordinary here; SoCal is dry

      ;D

    • mosedart (SF)

      holy mother of we cows, that’s like a cat 3 hurricane off the coast of Oregon.

    • Holy Mackerel!

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    New 18z GFS swag for late next week. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/149cea7fcacc41876c61f322232754371929aa76bb3696731fbeacb37de6c8e8.gif
    About an inch down here by the weekend. Nice dry out period of a few days before some of the best looking storms for socal this season. To go from a projected mostly dry winter to potentially record breaking levels of snowfall and rain for the majority of the state is insane. Great time to be a CA weather fanatic!

    • scott

      So much for El Nino being the say all with rain predictions.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    vary heavy rain falling in sonora right now man the shower we are getting may be small but they are packing some vary heavy rain with them

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Having a nice drizzle shower

  • Yanet Garcia (NYC, USA)

    Happy New Year! Can you fill me up with your weather? One at time please.

    • DelMarSD

      I’d be happy to.

    • Charlie B

      Well, it rained, then there was some snow, some more rain, then a downpour or two, some rain again, heavy snow, then heavy rain on the heavy snow, then heavy snow with rain elsewhere. That pretty much sums up the last week. I might have missed a few rain and snow events, but that’s the gist of it. Oops…throw in a few floods of various types.

      • Pfirman

        She said one at a time. You’re going to have a heart attack.

    • Upslope

      Well played, “Yanet”

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    Most of the state at or above normal rainfall for the season so far, except for a few yellow splotches. Those of you in the yellow splotches know who you are 😉

    Don’t worry, more storms are on the way…

    https://twitter.com/NWSLosAngeles/status/819322508793053189

    • DelMarSD

      What an excellent map!

      • Tom

        For sure.. probably as consistent as possible. Lets close up that yellow over Santa Ynez watershed.

    • Who woulda thunk?

    • Unbiased Observer

      You can tell that orographics have played a big role with these storms.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      I’m in the light blue

    • rainingintheLBC

      the SY watershed is close to normal atleast – better than the reds of the prior years.

  • jstrahl

    Only getting here now, medical procedure earlier, then necessary errands. Finished yesterday with 2.00 inches, including a spectacular downpour around 11:30PM, as intense as the one around 7. Sat-Tuesday picked up 5.05 inches, about normal …. for the entire month! .02 overnight and this morning (i think part of it while i was in the medical office). Total for January 6.92 inches, meaning that for the 7 day period for which charts have posted below, 6.90 inches. Sky getting dark in the Bay Area again.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      How does that compare to your preseason prediction?

      • jstrahl

        You had to bring that up, eh? 🙂 I forecast 0 for the month of January, indeed. Given recent years, i thought this was a high probability guess. Normal for the month is 5.30 inches per the UC station stats 1950-1980, 4.81 estimated for my location, given a UC station technician’s statement to me that the station measured about 10% above downtown. He said that at his place, at the top of the first ridge as one proceeds east, was about 150% of the UC station, due to orographic effect. The Tilden Park yearly average (per Contra Costa County Flood Control District link posted here yesterday, is 150% of the UC ’50-’80 yearly average. http://gismap.ccmap.us/FloodControl/Hydrology.html

        • Dan weather maniac

          Ahhh I see you found the link you were asking for!

          • jstrahl

            Indeed, thanks!! the Tilden location is Bald Peak, BTW.

        • Pfirman

          Mea culpa? Mea maxima culpa? It’s time. Or was this it?

          • jstrahl

            Hey, this was it. If you’re looking for me to put on rags and flagellate myself, i suggest you make long-range waiting plans.:-)

          • Pfirman

            I was only thinking hair shirt.

  • RunningSprings6250
    • DelMarSD

      Yeah, it really looks great. 5 inches for San Diego would be a dream come true.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      We have had quite a few smaller rain events down here in Socal this month, but it would be nice to get a really big storm sometime later this month!

    • Yes, yes it is!!!

    • Absolutely!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Bring it!

  • CHeden

    As hoped, temps got up to 56F early this aft.
    Then, as if on queue, poof goes a convective line right over Cottonwood.
    Heavy rain mixed with hail/graupel fell for around 15 minutes. Temp is now 44F, the coldest of the day.

    • Congrats for not calling it a bust.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • DelMarSD

    With today rain (.4 inches), I’ve officially broken the 8 inch mark for the season. Currently at 8.2 inches. Terrific!

    • itsGonnaRain

      We are at 1.41 inches for January here in Orange. Still plenty of time left.. not sure what average is for Jan. We got 4.9 in Dec which was well above average. Those Baja events seem to overperform for us.

    • rainingintheLBC

      That’s really good for the SD coast. What is average annual there?

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    This is the most precipitation coming solely from rain we have had in our stay up here–it will be 20″ by the end of today. We had higher precip in March 2011, but we had to shovel some of it :-).

    • Tangocity

      Your stay where?

      • Siernev

        The bain of living in a town named after a person’s first name.

        • Pfirman

          He could fix the bane by changing the handle to Weather Fanatic (Arnold, CA). Just saying.

          • Siernev

            You know, maybe his name actually is Arnold. In which case his handle would be Arnold Weather Maniac (Arnold).

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        Arnold

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    we may be able too ski on july 4th weekend and Memorial Day weekend this year if this kind of snow keeps up

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Some decent convective potential with that cold pool aloft. I want some graupel.

      BTW – I love these WxBell graphics which show the Snow (or freezing?) level outlined in magenta, you can see those areas expand as colder air filters in.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          That looks very good

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          That’s actually a much more vigorous rain band than the Hi Res NAM was indicating. I know this is simulated reflectivity as opposed to actual rainfall, but I’d expect most of that to reach the ground given the moist air in place. (Unless the surface reflection starts pulling in some offshore flow in the lower levels as this thing slides down into the coastal waters South of Point Conception.)

        • This looks terrific!

    • Sokafriend

      Is this for tomorrow?

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yep.

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Socal party tomorrow! Yes please.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i cant wait too see what this will look like on thursday

    this map is for today the new one comes out thursday

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c910b3b263b73871b5892971becc27d866743c77fb1d25d2a543f9ffe13bb8ca.png

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Bet you a nickel that SBA and VTA counties will still be in the deep red. We’re hurting down here, help us out and steer some of that rain our way! Better yet, next summer when you are on vacation, do not visit us, we can’t afford to provide water for your showers!

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Northern Santa Barbara County is doing better than Southern Santa Barbara County and Ventura County

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I believe that most of D4 will be eliminated by tomorrow, and significant improvement will be shown for central and northern CA. More storms later this season, especially if they bring heavier rains to Socal, will chip away at the remaining drought in Socal. It is still possible that there is some lingering drought at the end of the season even with well above normal precip, but it will look a whole lot better than what is being shown above!

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          I’m at 150%-200% of the YTD avg water year so far

          • But that is not enough to really dent our drought, yet. We are just now getting water running in the creeks.

          • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

            We have more rain tonight and next week will help of course.

          • Upslope

            Truth. Couldn’t be more clear that this is the case, but we should note that an important milestone has been achieved around Cachuma. For the first time in several years, the river is running and filling the reservoir, albeit still at a painfully slow rate. The water level was rising about 1/2 inch per day since the rainy season began. With the first storm this week, it kicked up to about an inch/day. This last storm has finally pushed us over the top, with the water rise increasing to 2 inches on Monday, nearly 4 inches yesterday and as of 5PM tonight (so 7 hours left) we are at 5 inches and counting. Still 130 feet to go until Cachuma reaches the top, so a loooooooong way to go, but every journey begins with a single step. If SB came out of this winter with 75,000 A/F in Cachuma, I think all involved would have to feel pretty good about that.

          • Pfirman

            So, 26 more months at 2 inches per day and Cachuma is golden? #Make it happen.

          • Upslope

            LOL. Of course each inch is harder and harder to fill b/c the reservoir is shaped like a bowl. So I’ll take the over.

          • Pfirman

            Here we go again. Of course, you’re correct. Too bad for hapless Cachuma.

        • Nathan

          I really doubt that. Drought monitor is very conservative in removing drought conditions. Cachuma is still at like 10-12%? Need multi-seasonal high precip to erase deficit.

          Even at this pace, I’d be surprised if the transverse areas north of LA got above D3 by the end of the season.

          • BRP (Ventura)

            Cachuma as of today, 11 Jan, is at 8% of capacity. So yeah, it can use a few more storms before the end of the rainy season…Casitas is at 35% and hasn’t budged since October 1st, no matter the 9 inches of rain since October 1st in its backcountry tributaries.

          • Nathan

            That’s nuts. Ground must be so dry it has just absorbed everything.

      • rainingintheLBC

        SBA and VTA counties aren’t really doing poorly(near normal from what I’ve seen) but you’re right- you need a 300% year to remove the deep red.

        • Pfirman

          If you went five days with only a bowl of, heh, Cheerios, and somebody finally gave you some hash browns, eggs, and no ham, for the whole day, and I said you aren’t really doing poorly, how would you feel?

    • Purplerain

      It might depend on who’s pulling the trigger.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
  • I saw and add in the newspaper. Yessiree bob the newspaper.
    It’s said four casters needed.
    I applied and here is my first caster.
    I nailed this one to the wall.
    They told me to use duplex nails, so I did but in my excitement of first casting I drove both heads in with my framing hammer.
    This will verify I screamed!
    They asked me to define verify.
    I didn’t know.
    They promoted me.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ffee833278d65645a4c8db03029e5d7517c62d5bdddbc137e155505390b5122b.gif

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Even a blind squirrel finds a nut sometimes……

      • Pfirman

        Fortunately he can’t read poetry by Muzik.