Northern California storm onslaught continues; widespread flooding likely this evening

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 10, 2017 3,261 Comments

Recent storms set stage for high-impact event today

Another powerful storm will bring heavy rain, high winds, and high-elevation blizzard conditions to Northern California. NCEP via UCSD.

This will be a brief update, but given the widespread significant storm impacts expected later today I felt a quick post was in order.

A very warm and wet “Pineapple Express”-type atmospheric river (with origins in the subtropics) brought widespread rainfall to California over the weekend, even at very high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Flooding, mudslides, and avalanches shut down most major travel corridors through Northern California on Sunday for at least some period of time, and a number of larger rivers have approached or exceeded flood stage.

Early model forecasts for this weekend storm were remarkably on-target, especially with regard to the large-scale storm details. One modest mitigating factor that prevented the weekend storm from bringing even more severe impacts was the slight lag between the arrival of the deepest atmospheric moisture and the arrival of the cold front. This “phasing issue” meant that while orographically favored higher elevation areas saw the expected prodigious rainfall totals, areas near sea level or “rain shadowed” by mountain saw less precipitation than otherwise would have occurred.

Soils are completely saturated and rivers already running very high following this weekend’s storm, however, and now a new storm is bearing down on California this afternoon. Since virtually all precipitation that falls over the next 24 hours will immediately turn into river/stream runoff, the flood threat later today may actually be higher in many places that during the weekend storm.

 

Very heavy rain, locally very strong winds, and epic blizzard conditions in Sierra Nevada

Northern California, particularly the Bay Area and central Sacramento Valley, will be under a strong” jet streak” this evening, enhancing precipitation and wind potential. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Today’s storm will bring an wide range of severe weather conditions to Northern California over the next 18 hours.

Steady soaking rains will intensify this evening, possibly culminating in a very intense burst of precipitation at some point tonight as the strong and fairly convective cold front passes through. This steady ramp-up of precipitation intensity, followed by a final burst of rain rates possibly approaching 1 inch/hour, will likely lead to widespread flooding given already wet antecedent conditions. In some parts of the Bay Area, Sacramento Valley, and Sierra Nevada foothills, life-threatening flash flooding of streams and smaller rivers could result. In addition, larger rivers from the Santa Cruz Mountains northward to the Mendocino coast may respond rapidly to this additional rainfall, possibly leading to the highest flood levels in years. The Sacramento River will reach its highest level in at least a decade, flooding the Yolo Bypass. Large and dangerous mudslides have already started to occur in many places, and this risk will remain very high for at least the next 24-48 hours in areas of steeper terrain and near recent wildfire burn scars.

Very strong winds are also possible near the time of cold frontal passage this evening. In the hills and in other wind-prone locations, wind gusts in excess of 65 mph are possible (and winds greatly in excess of 100 mph are likely on remote, high elevation peaks in the Sierra Nevada). Of potentially even greater consequence will be wind gusts over 50 mph in less wind-prone urban areas in the Bay Area and Sacramento region, where widespread power outages and tree damage is likely. Wind impacts with this storm will likely be more significant than with the Sunday storm.

With strong storm-scale dynamics, increasingly cold air aloft, and a fairly well-defined cold frontal passage this evening, thunderstorms will be possible (especially near the coast). Some of these could even approach severe limits, bringing torrential downpours and very strong wind gusts.

In the Sierra Nevada, a blizzard of epic proportions is currently unfolding. In contrast to the Sunday storm, snow levels are now below well below pass level in most places. Multiple feet of snow have already fallen at the highest elevations, at it’s likely that areas as low as Lake Tahoe could see 5+ feet (!) of snowfall, with much more than that up at 8000+ feet. Very strong winds are also occurring. Travel across the Sierra Nevada range will be dangerous (and essentially impossible) over the next 24 hours. Snowfall of this magnitude hasn’t been seen in years in most populated parts of the Sierra Nevada, which may elevate impacts even further.

Once again, Southern California will see some rain out of this storm, but since totals will remain on the low side no significant problems are expected.

 

Long range: a much-needed break, but more storms on horizon?

Long range ensemble forecast: more storms to come after modest 3-5 day break. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

I’ll keep this section short: after another weak to moderate (and colder) system on Wednesday/Thursday (which could bring snow to the foothills and isolated thunderstorms elsewhere, including Southern California), things should dry out for 3-5 days. This will allow rivers to recede and soils to drain a bit. But both the GFS and ECMWF suggest that an active pattern over the North Pacific may redevelop by next week. Stay tuned!

For updates on today’s storm, follow Weather West on Twitter!

 

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  • cthenn

    3.3″ in WC since it started last night. Another big rain band coming…winds intensifying. Insane.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      where are you from?

      • Chris Lyon

        my guess is Walnut Creek….

      • LightRanger

        Guessing WC = Walnut Creek.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    On and off light rain showers and drizzle that last for a minute today.

    • Charlie B

      It is good to know that Orcutt is safe.

      • rainingintheLBC

        Orcutt isn’t a safe place though.

        • Pfirman

          Compared to the LBC, that is saying something.

          • rainingintheLBC

            I’ve only seen 2 people get shot on my street, it’s not too bad. Don’t even ask Thunder98 what goes on in Orcutt.

          • Pfirman

            I don’t want to know.

    • Forsyth Shizzle

      Got a quarter inch here in Isla Vista.

      “God has a special providence for fools, drunkards, and the United States of America.”
      ? Otto von Bismarck

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I got 0.12″ and more rain is happening now

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    The rain in the my area is trying to connect to the main front to the north.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1484900b8a7ec9ef4ef28dda38c728e13186731f0f48b7418c5c4098ecd41ab9.png

  • Charlie B

    In yesterday’s Open Snow update, BA changed his seasonal prediction for snow from 85-92% of normal to 95-105% of normal. I think he might need to dust off his slide rule again, if he can find it in the drifts.

    • Pfirman

      Sled rule?

  • osc3_el cerrito

    Pressure has fallen 0.2 in since noon here. Very gusty winds in El Cerrito.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Snow levels are a lot lower with this storm

  • coldestsummer

    Down near SFO for work and it’s really ripping out here, very intense winds. Interestingly enough, it looks like the winds continue to be out of the southwest, so I would assume the cold front is still incoming.

  • Joey B. (Lafayette)

    Just hit the 3 inch mark in Lafayette and it is still pouring!

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    looks like this will be a all snow event for truckee and tahoe there where thinking that the snow may swich too rain and then back too snow but that dos not seem to be no longer the case wish means we are going too see feet and feet and feet of snow out of this

    any snow reports ? form any one up there been a few hrs now

  • Nookx-Weather

    The wind has just started howling just SW of placerville

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      seems like the winds are this now picking up in a lot of areas

  • Dan Freeman

    3.75 inches in Ross Valley since midnight. Wind is howling. Flash flood warning issued

  • osc3_el cerrito

    Pt San Pablo in Richmond is reporting winds 79 mph from the SSW. Could this be accurate?

    • osc3_el cerrito

      The Vallejo Ferry will require an E ticket for this evening’s ride.

  • Freddy66

    For those of us bored in Los Angeles….The 18z seemed to cut back on the big storms a week from now.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      18z was a bad run throw it out

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Of course it did…If this current weather pattern holds, just imagine the demarcation line of Extreme Drought here in the Southland versus the flooding rain as close as San Luis Obispo County / Kern County…

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        Sounds like you’re counting dead chickens before they die again. Ensembles are indicating some interesting things for the whole state later in the month, as if the current frequent rains aren’t enough of an indicator that this is a different season from the last few.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Right on schedule. The GFS 2nd guesses it’s fantasyland call, the ECMWF picks up with it medium range, and then the GFS plays catch up. Been happening all season. Stay tuned.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Just Rained moderately

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    so it looks like the strong winds are really starting too happen now with the cold front i gust? seems like the wind will be really string with the front

  • TK

    Windows rattling here in Alameda and it’s definitely raining harder than the green on the radar.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The wind makes the rain look more intense

  • cabeza tormenta

    Front arriving at the coast looks very convective in the latest visible loop as Daniel
    mentioned.

  • cthenn

    It got warm all of a sudden. T-shirt weather (underneath rain pants and jacket!). Wind has calmed a bit, but my guess is the back end of this thing is gonna throw the kitchen sink at us. Water is flowing halfway across the street in my neighborhood.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    It is raining good again

  • osc3_el cerrito

    Tiburon Ridge gusts to 60 mph. Don’t see this kind of wind very often at sea level here.

  • Cap’n

    In the neighborhood of 5-6 feet here and it just keeps dumping. Still no plow, we’ve all been outside moving things around but until the plow comes we can’t start our battle with the berms. My forecast still shows 18-27″ tonight. Looks like I’ll be ending in the 7′ + range. I shudder thinking of the work I have in the morning. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/854b23a50b3903ead338867032be3c0d84cdaf385a8aa450cbabe5b1218b5919.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5cff9dd7434df387a243d2bd4f4b99b834df9f75ed09a68ed9b64adce7e609a8.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c9e955a76c2cf91cc49a32a4551c1cda90172c06558db83cbc63e992e9541d86.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9207f84b6aab75ae71dd169767689c421397c492bacc199471d28e5f27c8f321.jpg

    • kipling

      Holy Sister of Bovine Offspring!!!!!!!!

      • RunningSprings6250

        We Cows?!

        • Pfirman

          Wee cows.

    • Forsyth Shizzle

      Incredibly beautiful. Take it slow tomorrow — be safe.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I love it! Have I said that already?!

      • Cap’n

        I HEAR THE PLOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

        • Pfirman

          Or Muzik twirling some shovels.

    • TruckeeLover

      Were you able to stock up on provisions? Clearly there’s no way you could move your vehicle now.

      • Cap’n

        We’re good to go, and we heat with a wood burner so power outage won’t be too bad, except that me, the wife and the dog will be very sick of each other.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      since you got 5 too 6 feet of snow now i would clear off that roof or over night we may have a cave in

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      that is way too much snow for a plow you may be traped for a few days

    • rainingintheLBC

      Storm looks like a bust!

  • cthenn

    over 3.5″ now. 0.2″ in half an hour since I posted last…that’s 0.4″/hr rate…crazy!!!

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      thats nothing 1″ or more a hr is crazy

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        No need to be condescending.

        • Pfirman

          Yep, all about location, location, location.

      • mbmattcor

        Believe me or not… in Nevada City about 6 years ago, my Davis Vantage Pro 2 showed 65 inches per hour for about one minute during a downpour. Highlight of my weather watching career.

  • Jenn

    Absolutely pouring here in Santa Rosa with intense, blustery winds….

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Video from CalTrans at the summit…notice the snow is as tall as the blower. These things are massive pieces of equipment.
    https://twitter.com/caltransdist3/status/818992255553810432

  • Cap’n

    Oh man, I shouldn’t have looked at the Doppler.

    • Pfirman

      You need a bigger shovel. And a rescue team.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      LOL you got a more comeing you may end up with 10ft of snow

      where are you from?

    • maddogokp

      Ooooooooooh! don’t whip yourself into a lather!

  • Cap’n

    Lights have flickered several times, it’s only a matter of time. All kinds of leaning and downed trees over here. One friend reports 3-4 feet in Kings Beach, another 4 feet or so at the base of Northstar.

    • inclinejj

      Considering Kings Beach is in a banana belt and normally gets the least snow in the area, that is very impressive.

      • Cap’n

        She’s in the upper reaches way up Trout or one of those streets, but I’m hearing multiple feet from pretty much all over the place at the lake.

    • Nathan

      Snow levels just kicked up, oddly enough…a lot more green on that radar now. That won’t help avy danger any…

  • Thor

    Ok…so it stopped raining for 5 minutes…first time in 23hrs…thought it was over…so very wrong. Heaviest rain and wind of the entire 23hrs now hammering Marin. Maybe this is the front?

    • Mike (Mill Valley)

      WOW! it is coming down in buckets, be doing so for a good 30 minutes.

  • Jenn

    Old lemon trees bending and swaying–this is a first in my 4.5 years in NorCal, Glorious.

  • TruckeeLover

    About 0.35″ of rain so far today in SLO. Off and on rain showers came in earlier than expected. Steady light rain now.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      vary strong winds so it looks like the strongest winds will be a head and long the front

    • nunbub

      I drove through that on my way from Placerville to Folsom…. The wind was having its way with my corolla :/

  • jstrahl

    Lots of interesting photos from Marin Public Works, including this one from San Anselmo.
    https://twitter.com/DPWMarin/status/818960108692484096

    • CHeden

      That’s one fast moving bridge!

  • jstrahl

    Water (as in flooding) on the SF-Oakland Bay Bridge, Landslides on Lucas Valley Road and Sir Francis Drake Blvd in Marin.

    • Pfirman

      Flooding on the Bay Bridge? Some design, huh?

      • Siernev

        When you spend only $6 billion on a bridge you can’t be expected to think of everything.

  • alanstorm

    Made it up to Humboldt. Eel R will crest at the Delta around 6am 5 ft above floodstage, exasperated by the high tide
    Pic is South Fork Eel R rising towards flood stage near Miranda over the next few hours.. This makes up about 1/3 of the main fork’s flow
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b6b9f13ca43c5427ebe2b8456b24078b0762cb73629bfd9d3e053d0c98a1dd9f.jpg

    • Pfirman

      That would be exacerbated, not exasperated, but works for me.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    the 1st wave that been over us is this about done we get a vary short break then we get round too with the strong winds and cold front with heavy rain and t-storms

  • Nathan
    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      get ad block and you have no more ads

      • click

        I have Adblock, but I disabled it for this page so that WW gets some revenue to keep this site up and free. As he mentioned, there’s a lot of server load/high traffic right now, and I work in this industry so I know it can get expensive quickly…

        • mattzweck

          Thiers also a browser called ghostery and you can pick and choose what to block and not block ads and pop ads. But I only use it sometimes.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      That is actually a Czech Republic domain.

      • jstrahl

        I was gonna say, looks Slavic vs Romance.

      • Nathan

        Well exjanzeciccccc meeeeee…..

    • rainingintheLBC

      does this site use google adsense?

  • Mike (Mill Valley)

    WOW, heaviest rain of the season and it’s been coming down for 30 minutes.
    Everything in southern Marin is buried in water. Every time I look at the radar I think it will end but it just keep building.

  • Can someone post a link to the next part of the storm? I’m having trouble seeing it.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I’m hearing frogs outside again

    • rainingintheLBC

      hey, that was supposed to be a one time post.

      • matthew

        As long as he is not hearing voices…

        • Pfirman

          Regardless, he might want to close the windows.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Lol, I’ll throw the bust word here. .3 total for this storm so far

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Oooh! You said the B word!

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Lol. .3 is dtizzle

      • Pfirman

        It is four letters, and has only one vowel, so it must be bad.

    • Patrick from Stockton

      I have to say that in Stockton we are getting hammered, just the opposite of the last storm. I checked my rain gauge after work at it sits at around 3.97 inches since Jan 1. That is phenomenal for Stockton, considering the monthly average is 2.74 inches. Tonight on KCRA Sacramento Mark Finan, Meteorologist, commented on the amount of rain that has fallen so far in Sacramento has exceeded the total of the last 3 seasons combined! Wow! And the rain season is not even half way over yet. He fully expects it to exceed the last 5 years combined by the end of the season! What a wonderful year this has been for the north state…And I am sure South will do well also…I have a feeling that there is much more to come for all..I have renewed faith in the GFS now when it forecasts wet vs. dry 🙂

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        We are doing great for the month

      • Siernev

        Saw that too, but I don’t believe he said (or meant) combined. Just that Sac already has more rain than the entire water year of those three past years individually.

        • Pfirman

          Details, details. The devil lives there.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      I usually am one to say bust, being in rainshadowed San Jose, but so far have gotten 0.95 and the front looks to be over novato/Mill valley. So I am happy with this storm thus far. Hoping for some wind as the front passes.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      Still have the main front that should get you some more rain. Im waiting for it to hit my location.
      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2b7cf9a7447cdfe39b42df05344b4106b9148e8ddf490ca24ee275e1a3820cba.png

      • TJH

        Absolute dumpage here in Pacifica. High winds as well.

    • I’d plan on more rain.

  • Crouching Dallas

    Man, between tonight’s weather action and what’s happening on political twitter, I’m really struggling to keep up with all of these golden showers!

    • TK

      This is me exactly!

    • Pfirman

      Ok, link to the political twitter action requested. Oh, wait, never mind. Cheden just updated.

  • Dan weather maniac

    The rain is absolutely torrential and I’m closing in on 4inches in 24 hour on top of 5inches the days before the east bay hills are getting hammered my 10 inches in 10 days is a given at this point.

    IMO this is way more intense than 2010-11 and probably the craziest I have seen since I lived here in 1998

    • cthenn

      Closing in on 4″ in WC since it started last night. Driving home from the store, power lines sparking overhead. Winds were crazy about 15 minutes ago, seems to be calming just slightly now.

  • CHeden

    Here’s a little nugget:
    Official 48 hr precip totals at SLT airport = 1.77″
    Truckee-Tahoe = .78″
    These are current totals, BTW.

    • Cap’n

      I don’t get it?

      • Pfirman

        Me too neither. Can’t be South Lake Tahoe. Two days?

    • Siernev

      Non-QC’d, I presume

  • supercell1545

    Just got to 6.73 inches in Roseville and counting as a massive cell moves overhead!

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      6.73? you sure about that ?

      • supercell1545

        For the month sorry I should’ve clarified

        • Pfirman

          And not even half way through.

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Maybe for both storms?

        • Storm master (Sonora CA)

          that seems a little more like it

  • jstrahl

    A friend reports very heavy rain in Vallejo, 1.78 inches since midnight, .05 inches in the time it took him to type that out!!

  • Rusty Rails

    Union Pacific has been dealing with snow slides all afternoon at Shed 47 which is right above the south shore of Donner Lake. The avalanche warning there is looking like a wise move. The spreaders have been keeping things open. A pair of rotary plows made up into a double ended set with road units in between was seen at Roseville today. The steam boilers for keeping moving parts from freezing were fired up. It sounds like they’re ready to rock if a bigger slide comes down that can’t be otherwise handled.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Thanks for these updates, love it! So much of Truckee’s history is intertwined with the RR.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Thanks for this and agree with Rob regarding the railroad history resonance — will the rotary see action?

      • Yolo Hoe

        Edit: just re-read your post and see the rotaries are being deployed — awesome

        • Rusty Rails

          Not being deployed but they’re ready if needed.

    • mbmattcor

      Rotary time! Saw it in action in March 2011. Is there a link to follow their
      progress.

      • Rusty Rails

        Not heading up, only getting readied if they’re needed in an emergency like ’11.

        • mbmattcor

          thx rusty, I’ll keep my ear on the roseville yards radio

      • Jeff Reynolds

        Shades of ’52! I’ll get out the popcorn.
        jefe

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    am keeping eye on the rader right now has it looks like there is a squall line forming along the cold front that is where most of the heavy rain and highest winds will be

  • Boiio

    Flood sirens in San Anselmo with torential rain. Not good.

    • Pfirman

      I can hear it now…..wheeoh, wheeoo, wheeoh, wheeglub, glub, glub, blub.

      • Boiio

        You have a gift

        • Pfirman

          Wife calls it a curse.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    i have now picked up 2.83″ of rain

    • Pfirman

      Time for a rest. Your poor back.

  • TK
    • Pfirman

      Please give location. I hesitate to click on links as I may never get back.

      • TK

        Sorry. Alameda County Transit. I think they may be back up to normal because the last bus they cancelled was at 7:05.

  • NJDevil

    A bit late, but there was some fantastic wave activity over the southern sierra this morning. Ive seen bigger mountain wave clouds, but really, nothing stranger than this one! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/184a7023892ea6289053aea3277e828191e3eaee70be44b308e23ad160f39a81.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7740c3a22e613db878e816980015a689c62e1839909a7e1c1d088347af1476e3.jpg

    • AlTahoe

      That top one is very cool. Nice photo!

      • Pfirman

        The bottom one scares me. Beautiful both of them.

        • NJDevil

          Yea, I have no idea whats going on there! I watched it after I got to work and it transitioned fairly quickly into your typical lenticular. Must have been some weird development phase.

  • TheNothing

    looks like the “jet streak” is over the central valley now, wow! I have to drive to sac to pick my girlfriend up at the train station, wish me luck.

    • Weather Profiler

      Good luck, the drivers in Sac forgot how to drive in the rain. It’s a mess out there.

  • Stereolab

    Bay Area getting absolutely nuked on at the moment; radar is full of yellow.

  • CHeden

    Perhaps some of you remember a lot of discussion we had on WW during last year’s SEN..and how it seemed there were only a few mega-lows or mega-highs that were dominating the Wx patterns hemisphere-wide. A few of us “old timers” were lamenting that “back in the old days”, there were a lot more lows and the term “parade” really meant something.
    Well, here’s what we were talking about.
    Haven’t seen anything like this in maybe decades.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/a4aa4a1d63aa788fe966bc35bc394d8bd86cfc85b7523caaf47321a8ea4696fd.png

    • Pfirman

      I love a parade.

    • Yolo Hoe

      I’m in

    • Sokafriend

      Wow that’s another great print. It couldn’t be clearer than this.

    • jstrahl

      Looks like a parade with a California destination.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Looks all good, except for that GD Baja high pressure that is nudged too close to us in so cal. The drought is a bitch to snap out of.

      • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

        As the “parade” of lows move over the northwest and NoCal I see the three HP systems to the west of SoCal.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Don’t rain on our parades!

    • RunningSprings6250

      Alaska is really High!

    • Tuolumne

      Yay, Yay, YAY!!!

  • Peavine Violet

    Never seen so much rain here in Reno. Granted, only been out here 10 years (6 in Carson – UK expat). Absolutely amazing watching it turn from snow to flood out here over the weekend. Stay safe, everyone.

    • TJH

      Saw some crazy pictures of washed out roads near Pyramid lake. This precip should hopefully get the vegetation growing that burned up this past year.

      • Peavine Violet

        My concern is that the jet stream may ‘take aim’ at us again in a week or so and if any incoming storms are warm then…………

    • Charlie B

      I’ve been around since 1985 in Reno area. This is one of the better storm cycles I have seen.

      • Broncos 88

        I have been in the Reno area since 1978. I can’t recall anything like these storm systems. The rain gauge is getting exhausted. It’s like someone turned the hose on and the valve can’t bee turned off. Thanks everyone for your insightful posts during this extraordinary storm.

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

    Torrential here at the moment (and 15 yr old daughter is on a soccer field….)

    • Pfirman

      You brought water wings, right?

  • I won’t be in Kansas. Wind is shaking the house. Rain is slamming and still waiting for golden radar.

  • Drew Stofflet
    • John

      I know the place, but the photo looks really chopped off

  • MetaGhost (Berkeley)
    • Pfirman

      The local dopplers seem to be all down.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    part one of the storm is now done here now we wait on the strong winds ahead and long with the cold front we picked up 2.88″ of rain with the 1st wave today is now the wettest one day rain fall from any storm this year has the rain was this none stop mod too heavy at times

    now we see how march more we get with the cold front

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    4.87″ of rain in the last 24 hours. 16.75″ for January. YTD precipitation has now passed all of the previous 13 years.

  • April hope brings May nope

    It’s been raining cats and cats in Suisun City. Just nasty.

  • cthenn

    Just lost power at my house, and we’ve eclipsed 4″…

    • inclinejj

      Where are you looking located?

      • cthenn

        Near downtown Walnut Creek. Pge just called said it’s only 139 people, so just my neighborhood.

    • Pfirman

      Walnut Creek, if I reckon rightly?

  • Brendan
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Raining hard here around Clayton, more rain with this storm than the Sunday storm. Reports of a water rescue in the Morgan Territory area being worked by multiple agencies. Also have requested the CHP to close Morgan Territory Rd, a popular commute route to Eastern CoCo county.

  • Paul C (SLO,Ca.)

    Over the last 7 days, Lake Nacimiento’s percent of capacity has gone from 25% to 43% as of today. Tremendous news.

    • rainingintheLBC

      That area has done really well, compared to the Santa Ynez Valley. Cachuma only rose about a foot in the last 7 days…

  • inclinejj

    Dumping rain and a tremendous blue flash and the power just went out. Pacifica.

    • Pacifica weather observer

      I saw that big blue flash and my power dimmed but did not go out. I was hoping it was lightning

      • inclinejj

        Down power lines by Oddstad School.

  • inclinejj

    Hope all the Tahoe, Reno and foothill posters are save!

    • Peavine Violet

      Dumping rain in Reno…

      • inclinejj

        What’s your temperature?

        • Peavine Violet

          39f and falling

      • Charlie B

        Indeed. I just had to get the wife an umbrella for the hot tub.

    • Cap’n

      Good for now, exhausted from shoveling and I honestly don’t even know if I did anything.

      • Thunderstorm

        Your going to look like Arnold before this winter is over. You’ll have 7 rows of calusus on your hands too.

    • Siernev

      Hope all the posters in areas of potential flooding are safe.

  • aquariumministry

    Oakland has just over 2″, since midnight. Some downpours and a nice fresh breeze, it’s beautiful. Stay safe everyone.

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Just hit 1 inch for this storm in San Jose. Current rain rate is 0.50 inches per hour as font is passing.

  • Lightning just now!

    • Nate

      Seriously? Where are you in the South Bay now?

      • I’m on the East side at my friends house and I looked at the radar and it’s near Santa Cruz right now. Saw a quick flash a few moments ago.

        • Nate

          Awesome, thanks for letting me know. That squall line looks really impressive, and I am filming right now in case there’s any more lightning.

  • jstrahl

    Thought i saw a lightning flash. Rate hit 1.2 inches/hr briefly either side of 7PM. up to 1.74 inches since midnight. It was like a water hose.

  • Herbalist (Ione)

    Absolutely dumping in Ione. Think we’re under the jet street right now. Very high winds.

  • weather whisperer

    crazy rain/wind in aptos. have had over 6 inches of rain since jan 1.

  • Charlie B

    Extremely cold heavy rain in Reno. The big Bernese Mountain Dog named “Hobbes” was begging to come in. We now have wet dog throughout the house.

  • Jockman

    Dumping really well in the Hollywood Hills. Just a blip on the radar though. Weird.

    • Jockman

      And now almost nothing. Just one quick cell but it really opened up (by LA standards, that is).

      • RunningSprings6250

        So like a heavy drizzle? 😛

        • Jockman

          No. Heavy, big drops.

  • Cap’n
    • RunningSprings6250

      Holy Hell! what a thing to be woken up by! or crushed!

    • MetaGhost (Berkeley)

      Knock knock
      Who’s there?
      Ava
      Ava who?
      Avalanche!!!!

    • Arnold Weather Fanatic

      Holy Avalanche, Batman! How to get the snow thrower into the room???

    • Pfirman

      Avey calling.

    • Hope that’s not your house.

    • Allemanni

      It was a controlled avalanche from the ski resort that obviously went awry for this guy. No one was hurt thankfully. I bet he gets a free remodel though!

  • Pacifica weather observer

    Just had a nice frontal passage here in Pacifica. Current conditions 55.2 degrees winds are calm and the barometer is rising. 24 hour rainfall 1.66 inches. Looks like Santa Cruz is going to get hit by vigorous Squall line. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f255b9616d5d2035ed3336076697c14fdb7f53adf29db66023ab830ffa2dd6a9.png

    • Rusty Rails

      Wind is already ripping here in SC so that will be fun.

  • Yolo Hoe

    Davis rain rate peaked at 2.28″ per hour at 6.25 pm this evening — we are getting pounded — 2.24″ for the day and counting — barometer at 29.63 and still dropping.

  • cthenn

    On the radar looks like we got maybe another half hour until it finally pushes through. I’m at 4.2″ since it started yesterday evening. I’m thankful the strong winds didn’t really get going. Had a couple of window rattling gusts but that only went on intermittently for about half an hour.

  • John

    Officially, as of this moment, the St. Mary’s Rain Gauge at the Contra Costa County Flood Control District’s Stations has exceeded its average ANNUAL rainfall. Needless to say, more to follow . . .
    http://gismap.ccmap.us/FloodControl/Hydrology.html https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b8c52f09bc308cca0f1af8c1669ecc401551b88ed081562aabdd4aea79e40426.png

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Would make sense why all the issues with trees and power poles falling in the Wc/Lafayette area. Over 10 more inches than a bit further east in Concord.

    • Joey B. (Lafayette)

      Yeah it’s been a wet water year for Lamorinda!

    • Allemanni

      Hiking, biking, chess files – I LIKE IT!

  • Martin

    Its nuking here in east palo alto.

  • This little red line coming in off the coast. Much more in the valley https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5338d41918ae1de7d5c66086efa5111728c9c8d68cb80117a4f8db244f8788b3.png

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)
    • Boiio

      They are narrow cold-frontal rainbands

    • CHeden

      Tough to tell from radar alone.
      Most likely just imbedded squall lines.

  • CHeden

    The core of the mid-latitude low we’ve been tracking all day is just offshore San Francisco and still tracking east.
    Expect a CF-like passage as it moves inland. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e1c5f650f49759b0721bf2899f28e37e12a1b89c33367eec5747a6d28b6b3da5.jpg

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      so is there more out there then? and this is not the main front?

      • Tuolumne

        The front passed through most of the Bay Area. The trailing low pressure area is right behind it. They are not the same thing.

        • jstrahl

          Though you may see similar effects as each passes.

  • jstrahl
  • Dan weather maniac

    Frontal rain band almost past central Bay Area…. headed to the Sierra next. Get ready mountain crew this last batch is mean and intense. Maybe you’ll get some thunder snow.

    Still dumping buckets here but looking to wrap up soon I hope

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3dd7485b1143d25d5fb028b7c7e0b2dff4ac4cf55cd943837ad9d6c2410eb8b6.jpg

  • Dogwood

    Near the Civic Center area here in God’s Little Rain Shadow I can report .65″ since midnight, 3.35″ since 1/1/17.
    Having a fine time. Reminiscing all the talk past on WW about Blobs and Pattern Change…..
    This is what we all wanted.
    San Jose

  • jstrahl

    Flash flooding on the San Lorenzo River in Santa Cruz County, NWS Bay Area.

    • Rusty Rails

      It was muddy and flowing at a good clip by the Boardwalk today so it won’t take much for a rapid rise up in Felton.

  • Charlie B

    I don’t think Daniel is going to do an update tomorrow because he is meeting with his lawyers and accountants. Seriously, this beats Jim Cantore any day of the week. Keep it coming.

    • Osse (Redondo)

      The really good thing is that Daniel had created a focal point for sharing CALIFORNIA weather and climate information. And he inserts timely info from various agencies and other folks as well as his own summaries. I certainly haven’t found anything else like this, so really appreciate it.

      • Charlie B

        I know, and I am grateful that my frequently irrelevant and irrelevant comments aren’t deleted.

  • LBurk

    So, according to the Ben Lomond neighborhood group, since the rain started in earnest on Saturday, we’ve had from 12″ to over 15″ in the notorious Love Creek area. They are averaging 5″ a day. We are all under major flash flood warnings right now until about 11. It is absolutely pouring right now. It sounds like we’re getting 2′ an hour right now.

  • Allemanni

    Well, that was crazy

    • Siernev

      Guessing the climax just passed?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Everyone’s outside having a smoke now ?

        • Siernev

          Knew it would be either you or Pfirman lol

        • Crouching Dallas

          or a cold shower!

    • Allemanni

      The only pumping going on tonight is of the sump kind

  • RunningSprings6250

    I know it’s not exciting torrential rain and avalanches but as we’re waiting for our bit of weather tonight I’m scratching my head not knowing what to expect.

    It’s 33 with light rain, forecast is now for heavy rain tonight with a low of 32.. ?

    I think I’ll expect rain but not be surprised if I wake up to snow…

    • Sokafriend

      It has been
      Waffling around alot, very strange.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    It’s raining in Santa Barbara too, as we slowly watch the drought’s slow and painful death.

    • Will (Solvang CA)

      Absolutely pouring up here in Solvang. Wasn’t expecting this system to be so intense, must not have been paying attention to the forecast. 0.28 inches in the last couple hours according to the county’s gauge.

      • Will (Solvang CA)

        Must be some orographic stuff happening, Buellton and SY aren’t seeing much rain and Solvang / Refugio Pass / San Marcos Pass are soaked (almost an inch on Refugio in last 6 hours, scary for Sherpa burn areas but it seems like its falling on the north side)
        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4aaaaf8092ab15b4c80afb6a8ad1d9d10266e77a73142e66cf0f62bb34a627a5.png

        • RandomTreeInSB

          Indeed. The hi-res models depicted 2 inches on SY mountain and only 0.4 for SY valley. The forecast totals for the valley was/is being underestimated IMO.

  • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

    WOW that squall line was impressive. I emptied my rain gauge yesterday around 6 PM and just went outside and saw just under 3″ in it. I don’t think I have ever observed a 24 hour total so high. The creek has jumped its banks in areas as well, too dark to get photos tonight…

    • Would you guys stop hogging all the rain! WU just cut our 3 day precip totals from one inch to .5″

      • Tuolumne

        NO! We want to be dead and drowned while you guys dry up and blow away. 😉

        • Pfirman

          Shhhh. It could happen.

  • AlTahoe

    Transformer just blew by my house. I thought it was thunder snow at first. Power is out in the Al Tahoe area

    • Cap’n

      Jim Cantore is probably howling at the sky and having a Snowgasm. Good luck Al. Lights have been flickering nonstop and I’m hearing heavy snow fall onto the roof off the trees, I feel it’s only a matter of time. Cam shows dumpage down there still.

      • AlTahoe

        Yeah weird I cleared my driveway at 5pm and there is like an inch out there now. I think that front is going to come through fast and furious. Maybe one of those 8″ an hour type burst

  • Thor

    It looks like its finally over for Marin. Here in San Rafael, I received 3.35 inches since 9am…and 15.8 inches of rain since last Tuesday.

    What a week.

  • WX Geek – Pleasant Hill

    Oh, and I saw Rusty Rail and others talked about the rotary plows getting ready to deploy. KQED produced a great documentary about these rotaries that I have seen a few times. It’s going to be on again next week, set your Tivos http://www.kqed.org/tv/programs/index.jsp?pgmid=22023

  • Cap’n

    4 feet of snow last week, followed by 8.2″ of rain, topped off with 5 + feet of snow the last two days and it’s still falling. I’m going to say something sacrilegious as a drought stricken Californian: I’m ready for some sun.

    • Charlie B

      I agree, reluctantly.

    • RunningSprings6250

      I’m hoping it works out in everyones favor and the next storm cycle focuses on socal like the GFS has been hinting at – then everyone gets a win win.

      • Cap’n

        Agreed.

      • Dan weather maniac

        I agree send this rain to so cal!

        • Thunderstorm

          If the BLUE BLOB continues to grow, thats a given.

    • Storm master (Sonora CA)

      i 100% agreed

    • inclinejj

      You can take a guy out of SoCal, but can’t take the SoCal out of the guy!

      • Cap’n

        Totally.

        • inclinejj

          My brother went down to SoCal for school. Left San Diego and moved up to the LBC.

          • Cap’n

            Actually I can’t get enough of this and I love being snowed in. It’s this whole missing work thing that’s stressing me out. All that time with the district and payed snow days… oh well.

    • You’re just begging for your house to be hit by an avalanche with those words.

    • scott

      Me too. I can’t even enjoy skiing in this if you can’t see 5ft in front of you if you can even get up to the hill