Series of atmospheric river storms to bring risk of significant California flooding

Filed in Uncategorized by on January 3, 2017 6,261 Comments

What happened to the “Arctic Outbreak” mentioned in the last post?

Well, it happened…somewhat further north than expected. The Pacific Northwest has been shivering through another unusually extended wave of subfreezing temperatures and snow–even along the immediate coast. These very cold temperatures did in fact make it to far northern California, where snowflakes were indeed observed near sea level along the North Coast (Crescent City briefly reported “thundersnow” on January 2nd) and in the lower hills of Mendocino County and the northern Sacramento foothills.

 

However, this extremely cold airmass did not make much southward progress beyond the northern third of California. Ultimately, the numerical weather models actually handled the complex atmospheric pattern over the North Pacific very well–pegging the approximate position of the very strong Alaska blocking ridge many days in advance. Subtle differences in the west-to-east flow across the far northeastern Pacific, however, have kept California warmer and wetter than initially expected over the past week. And remember those potential “big storms” I mentioned at the end of the last post? Well, those are now materializing in a pretty eyebrow-raising manner.

Meanwhile, at higher elevations in NorCal, one of the largest sustained snowfalls in several years is currently underway. Much of the Sierra Nevada above about 6000 feet in elevation is in the process of being buried by many inches of snow–and heavy snow rates will likely continue periodically for the next several days. By late Thursday, many places will likely be reporting totals in feet rather than inches. Due to the cold airmass still in place across NorCal, some spots as low as 2500 feet will experience unusually large accumulations before warmer air moves in. These recent, large snow accumulations have already led to a high risk of avalanches in steeper terrain–and may add to the already considerable flood risk developing for the coming weekend.

 

One-two (three?) atmospheric river punch will deliver copious precipitation

A series of extremely moist Pacific storm systems will take aim at California this week. The first of these is already bringing increasingly heavy rain (and mountain snow) along with gusty winds to much of northern California. This initial system probably won’t cause too many problems outside of some notable travel headaches over mountain passes and perhaps some minor local flooding. But this first round of precipitation will set the stage for bigger problems later this week into next week by saturating the soils north of about Santa Barbara and by depositing multiple feet of fresh snow to the Sierra Nevada, even at more moderate elevations.

The overall amount of water vapor transport in a 72hr period ending late Sunday is expected to be tremendous, and squarely aimed at California. (NCEP via UCSD)

The second storm is (by far) the one of greatest concern, as it will take the form a moisture-laden and slow-moving atmospheric river. While the details with this second system are still somewhat uncertain, virtually all numerical forecast models are painting a very broad area of extremely high precipitation totals over the next 6-7 days across the entire Sierra Nevada mountain chain and also in the coastal mountains from the Oregon border south to Monterey County. It’s still too early to say exactly how much precipitation will fall, but the potential is there for some very impressive numbers–perhaps greater than 20-25 inches along favored western slope regions of the Sierra Nevada and greater than 15 inches in the coastal mountains. Even in low elevation urban areas near the Bay Area and Sacramento regions, 7-day totals exceeding 5-7 inches are entirely possible.

Since this system is expected to be slow moving, the associated atmospheric river may stall over some portion of northern or central California on Sunday or Monday–or even waver back northward temporarily. If and when this occurs (as has been suggested by recent runs of both the ECMWF and GFS), there may be a 100-200 mile wide band of even higher precipitation totals. It’s impossible to say at this time where any stalling or frontal waves might occur, but that has the potential to be a serious situation locally.

This system will also be drastically warmer than its predecessor, and while snow levels could actually start out unusually low (locally in the 2,000-2,500 foot range), they will skyrocket as very strong warm advection occurs Saturday into Sunday. It’s possible that the models are currently presently overestimating the amount of airmass warming that will occur over the weekend, but given the subtropical origins of this atmospheric river snow levels could rise above 9,000 or perhaps even 10,000 feet at the height of the event.  This is above essentially all Sierra Nevada passes, and more importantly well above the majority of the recently-fallen snowpack in the 3000-8000 foot range. In fact, 850mb temperatures could rise to around +10C at this time–would would be very bad news indeed for the snowpack. The highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada could see tremendous snowfall totals, likely over 100 inches. And it’s true that storm #1 will drop quite a lot of snow at much lower elevations over the next 24 hours. But much of this snowpack could be erased by 24 hours of warm rain later this weekend.

 

 

Risk of significant, perhaps serious, flooding in parts of California next 10 days

Very large, double-digit precipitation totals are currently expected across most of higher-elevation northern and central California. (NCEP via pivotalweather.com)

Should the #2 storm this weekend come to fruition as currently depicted by the models, there will be a high risk of fairly widespread flooding throughout smaller rivers and streams in the Sierra Nevada–including the western foothills–and also in the Coast Ranges (especially near the Bay Area). Given the duration and magnitude of the event, there will also be an increasing risk of mainstem river flooding by Sunday. This risk will be amplified by the potential for widespread melting of a rather substantial lower elevation snowpack, especially on Sunday. It’s still too early to say just how serious this likely flooding may become, as this will likely depend strongly on just how persistent the atmospheric river ultimately is on Sunday and how much snowmelt actually occurs. But it does appear that the potential is there for a potentially serious, high-impact flood event across some portion of central or northern California by this weekend, and a more general risk of flooding elsewhere throughout the northern 2/3 of the state.

Animation of GFS-derived vertically integrated water vapor transport over time. Note remarkable persistence of Sunday AR event! (NCEP via UCSD)

For better or for worse, this does not really appear to be a Southern California storm event (though that could still change if there is a modest southward shift in the atmospheric river trajectory). It’ll still be wet in Los Angeles and San Diego, and precipitation could become briefly heavy at some point (probably early on Monday). But earlier forecasts suggesting the potential for very large rainfall totals near the LA Basin are no longer looking likely, as the bulk of this moisture is aimed much further north.

Beyond this weekend: conditions will likely remain quite active across the Pacific, and the very long range forecast even hints at the potential for another (though weaker) atmospheric river by the middle of next week. An ongoing active and wet pattern would prolong the risk of flooding throughout California, so this will bear close watching in the days to come.

I’ll be following this event in real-time on Twitter, and I may have another blog post on the Sunday storm if the higher-end flood scenarios are starting to look more likely.

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  • Yolo Reborn

    An unfortunate casualty of this event, the iconic tunnel tree went down:
    http://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2017/01/09/508919216/iconic-sequoia-tunnel-tree-brought-down-by-california-storm

    It was great to wake up and read all the storm totals otherwise! This storm may have hit the Goldilocks zone for most of us- delivered enough rain without being life-threatening (although we’ll know more as more news filter in this morning). Glad all of our Sierra bloggers seem to be doing well. Thank you Mother Nature!

    Onto to Tuesday!

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Sad to hear of the old redwood tree

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Currently very light rain after the heavy rainfall around 3pm w/ lightning
    0.70

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica. Highway 1 closed Northbound at Reina Del Mar Avenue (Vallemar) Northbound traffic is sharing the Southbound lanes. Expect 2-3 hour delays.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Its snowing on Mt. Jacinto!

      • Craig Matthews

        Cool. I can believe it, temps dropped from the mid 60s yesterday to mid 40s this morning where i’m at.

  • Craig Matthews
  • Saturday-Monday AM 5.75 inches
    1.5 Saturday
    4.25 Sunday-Monday AM
    Morgan Hill

    • Craig Matthews

      I got 4″ for the Sat-Mon one in Cach. Big Sur place got 11 inches!! Morgan Hill really gettn nailed by these, nice totals up there…

      • Thanks we may have a road trip planned, soon. :))

    • CHeden

      Go ahead, rub it in.
      48 hrs = 1.89″ at my house in Cottonwood.
      Hopefully we’ll get a little more with this next round.

      • jstrahl

        Some people would kill for that much rain in 48 hours.:-)

        • CHeden

          I’m harder to please now in my old age.

      • I’ll bring the ribs you can supply the rub and I’m sure Craig would like to ride shotgun with me up to your place. You do know how to smoke/BBQ? Of course you do. :))

        • CHeden

          LoL..
          And I do have a great rub-recipe. Been working on it for years. Sure got some great butchers up here, BTW.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      That is incredible. We don’t want that much that quickly. Would be a fiooding disaster

      • It was a minor issue in downtown Morgan Hill and parts of highway 101 were temporarily closed due to flooding. Next storm coming in will do a repeat if not worse.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Bit of an update on I-80, they have opened EB 80 through Truckee with chain controls. WB is still closed and as Matt had noted below is expected to stay closed, I am sure once they clear the mud they need to check the road for any other issues and also see if the slide has stopped and it’s safe to move traffic. Plus they need to figure out the power lines that came down in the slide.

    This from the CHP Cad-
    11:26 PM 38 [62] 80-23B MUD SLIDE UPDATE: CT IS CONTRACTING THE MUD CLEARING OUT TO TIECHERT. THEY R BRINGING EQUIPMENT UP OVERNIGHT FROM THE VALLEY AND WILL BE STARTING TO CLEAR IN THE AM,,,,, CLOSURE MOST LIKELY UP TILL TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING AT THE EARLIEST,,,, PLZ UPDATE ENTAC / 1039 80-C

  • Muzikman1

    I remember power pumping up the summit last night sometime after dark. I was practically strangling my pole in an absolute frenzy as the wet stuff pounded me from all sides. My van was working full throttle as I headed towards the basin.

    The next thing I knew I was on the ground surrounded by five men in bright jumpsuits.

    It was difficult to see what was happening through the fog of my goggles but it felt as if they were tugging at me from all sides. First one would grab my are, then another would pull at my ankle.I soon realized that they were breaking me free from a pile of wet mud. Ohhhhhhhhhhhhhh they toiled over my body as the wet stuff continued to fall.

    Then another man came in to press his mouth against my mouth.

    That man was pushing the air from his mouth into my mouth. Everything started moving in total slow motion as the other men stood watching. Then he was done and I was being held like a boy as my goggles were removed. I was placed gently on to a cot and put into another van.

    This is the van that brought me to the Basin.

  • GusLevy

    La Canada (Descanso) reports 0.74″ for this storm. Appears that most of LA Basin was around that level. SLO area had close to 2″, Ventura was about the line where areas began to receive less than 1.0″ whereas Santa Ana area received just over a 0.30″.

    The only bad part – I suppose – is that the storm was a midnight to dawn event so was not able to get to enjoy it very much. Better that it was for traffic tho.

    I have an itch to try and hike the Bridge to Nowhere today…prob uncrossable at some point after this storm tho.

    • Bombillo1

      Only a WWer would lament a night rain. Our Madness on full display.

      • GusLevy

        I don’t think any decent shrink would want to deal with a nut that checks on the weather reports and blogs for several hours a day so, well, we got that going for us…

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          It called Seasonal Affective Disorder by too much sun/ warmth. I would have preferred convection during daylight

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Doesn’t it seem to rain at night 80% of the time in LA?

      • GusLevy

        Yep. Prob not true statistically but I think most weather lovers in LA are used to watching the various radar maps show that green and yellow blob on our computer screens going over the Central Coast during the day with the forecast to hit down here when we are in bed.

        I think we just have to accept that it is prob for the best that it rains a decent amount of the time at night since the roads are a disaster when it rains in the daytime here.

        • happ [Los Angeles]

          It was warm enough to leave bedroom window open so I could be awakened by the heavy/ thunder @ 3am!

          • The heavy stuff that hit the valley must have bypassed us here.

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          Seems like most of the storms here usually occur during the afternoon and evening

    • click

      I’ve been wanting to do that hike for a while, post some pics if you make it!

      • GusLevy

        Today is not the day to do it. Too much risk as the river is extremely wide and fast.

        It is a great hike that every hiker should do in SoCal. Approx 9mi roundtrip…slow grind up but nothing strenuous. The fun of the hike is the crossing of a surprisingly wide river at many points of the hike. The beautiful bridge at the end is a curious wonder at the end – absolutely stunning bridge that is reminiscent of the Colorado Bridge that looks brand new to this day.

  • WalkmanJG

    Ended up with 2.5″ in the Martinez area. I believe we were between 2-4″ so we hit the mark.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    I guess my January prediction of 3.30″ is complete wrong. My new January rainfall prediction is 5.25″.

  • Thor

    In Marin- San Rafael- I received a total of ~6.2 inches of rain since Friday at 5pm…of which 4.75″ came between Sat night and Sunday night.

    adding to the ~4.75″ I got on last Tuesdays storm…thats over 10 inches for week.

    Not bad.

    • GusLevy

      10″ for some us down here in LA would be a decent yr…

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • honzik

    SCMtns Update: The WU PWS I use to estimate my rainfall comes in at 7.33″ for the storm. I’ll ask my neighbor for a more exact number, and willl update later.

    Power still out at home. Mudslides shutting down Hwys 17 and 9, SJ-Soquel open, but backed up at the summit. Lexington looks completely full!

    On top of all of that, a nice sunrise:

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d1a9f0c3c2fa2b0ec4ecdff85e37f10c3bfae20f12de1752e39bfbd8a4b4ce96.jpg

    • CHeden

      Ugh. Santa Cruz folks are trapped other than going over 92. (or Tunitas Creek to 84)

      • honzik

        Or, by 152 and/or 101 from the south. I drive on Summit road to take my son to school, and noticed a huge backup at the stop sign on SJ-Soquel and Summit, since SJ-Soquel is pretty much the only way through the mountains. It’s a good time to take a vacation day if you live in Santa Cruz.

        • Rio Rat

          152 is closed both east & west,129 through murphy crossing is slow go but is open.

          • honzik

            That’s closed too!?! Wow. I can’t remember when so many road have been closed!

      • LBurk

        Boulder Creek is totally isolated today. There are issues on either end of Hwy 9, and what’s worse is Bear Creek Rd washed out right by town! This is a major artery out of town to Silicon Valley.

  • Pfirman

    Actual water in the Santa Ynez River finally. Looks a bit sluggish but at least it is there.
    http://166.154.30.143:8080/dms?nowprofileid=1.jpg

  • jstrahl

    I though rain was over in the evening, reported 1.56 inches for the day. Well, at 11:40PM, a downpour, rain turned water hose-like, intense winds, heaviest rain of the weekend, went on till just past midnight. Added .34 inches by midnight (a rate of over an inch an hour!), so 1.90 inches for 1/8/17. That’s the most for 24 hours in January in 9 years (1/25/08). Got .04 further after midnight. Total of 4.58 inches for January so far.

    • Pfirman

      72 hour total here is 3.19 inches, which brings calendar year total to 4.37 inches. Oct. 1 to Sep. 30 water year is now at 11.16 inches.
      Measured at Sacramento International Airport.

      • jstrahl

        Isn’t Davis closer to you? Just wondering.

        • Pfirman

          More or less equidistant. Airport ten miles to the east on the other side of the bypass, Davis ten miles to the south on the other side of the impass, heh.

          • Yolo Hoe

            A million miles away as the crow flies — though we did enjoy bowling this rainy weekend at your alley on Main St

          • Pfirman

            Cheap and with the incongruous name ‘San Bruno’.

          • jstrahl

            Thanks, had the airport in the wrong location in my mind.:-)

  • happ [Los Angeles]

    Yesterday the LA river appeared to be at normal levels [very little]; today should be higher

  • El Toro
  • Apollo
    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Is that near San Diego?

      • Apollo

        Squaw Valley.

  • Cap’n

    Full whiteout in Central Truckee

    • AlTahoe

      Same here and the Temp has dropped to 32F

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Holy We Cows…the GFS keeps up the action around the 20th with 3 more storms…

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      An astounding change from previous winters

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      These giant storms have been showing up in GFS runs for days now. Feeling better every day that they’ll come to fruition!

    • Please say SoCal is in on that action, too?

      • Candleman (Santa Barbara)

        It is… but still fantasyland.

  • RandomTreeInSB

    As Pfirman mentioned below, Santa Ynez river is finally flowing. River gauge above Cachuma recorded a peak flow of 428cfs last night.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5234bbe4e9e7482de7a4c3fc8cbce984307d424be4f58e49fbd0a79bd0266e56.png

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Lovely. Now that the ground is well saturated, every storm from here on out will be constructive…watch Cachuma rise from its ashes…

  • Apollo
  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Couple of pics. One is the Salado Creek in Patterson. Normally the water running down the creek looks like it is coming from a garden hose. It was running this morning about a foot from its banks. The other two pictures of the Tuolumne River through rural Modesto. Normally the bridge crosses mostly a sandbar and the river would be crossing just a small portion of the bridge well below. It is really moving well new and close to flood monitoring stage
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9444b0b5efae72d951a2f3742ba2e3285405b159940eca89d91eed7f4da09315.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b3abbebd52c8aab01f9c689cd73cafe9e7e6a3d889b26fcd34ed7c608af72d4.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/bb7be3a108d4e11ebaf8dc315b8f75675d3e4b8f198760bf3b443f2f9455897b.jpg

  • Apollo
    • honzik

      All hail is about to break loose!

      • Apollo

        Got my ass chased back inside.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Its going to be pelting like crazy at hour house!

  • Fairweathercactus

    A weekend full of hype for this storm it was average at best. More like garbage.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      That sucks! What was your storm total?

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • SoCalWXwatcher

      NWS Oxnard was calling for .5″ – 1.5″ for LA Metro area, I got .69″ here in Downey, which was well within forecasted amounts. Woke up to lighning and thunder around 3am, which was a pleasant surprise.

      I think we’ve reached a new era here on the WW comments board, where the whining regarding dry winters and the RRR has been replaced by whining/disparaging remarks because we didn’t get a flood.

      It reminds me of the little rich girl on Christmas morning, who whined after opening all 50 of her presents because she didn’t get a pony.

      • RunningSprings6250

        The part about the whiny little rich girl – spot on! lol ?

  • inclinejj

    10:00 am. Pacifica 2.93 in the rain bucket. 29.87 Barometer. 54.9 degrees.

    Highway 1 still closed Northbound. Expect 3-4 hour delays. Neighbors saying they have traveled 2 to 2.5 miles in 3 hours.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Downtown LA got 0.77″ of rain today

  • Whittier weather dude

    .72 in the vantage thought we would get more??

  • AlTahoe

    Hmm yesterday the GFS had a 988mb low off of Southern Cal at hour 384. Now it has 3 separate 980mb lows coming into the Bay Area down to LA starting at hour 300 – 384. Interesting trend to keep an eye on. Maybe a January 1969 repeat?

    • matthew

      GFS has been wanting to bring something in the long-range for several days now. It just can’t decide exactly what is coming. At least it’s indecisiveness is consistently showing something wet rather than flipping from wet to dry then settling on dry as in past years.

    • Craig Matthews

      Before this latest storm series I would expect a northward trend in the models with these Lows, but lately fantasy has been coming to fruition.

  • Jeff

    Looks like we are done in san diego for now, picked up 0.21″ this morning over the past 3 hours

    certainly not as much as everyone up north but happy to add a little more to the total for the year

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      That’s the right attitude! Great way to start the work week…assuming you didn’t need to sit through the traffic this AM 😉

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      That’s the spirit!

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    Really like what the GFS has been bringing to the table over the past few days. ECMWF is looking better as well. Especially for socal but great for the whole state!
    7 Day Projected Accumulations: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010912/gfs_apcpn_swus_28.png
    Long Range Projected Accumulations:http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017010912/gfs_apcpn_swus_52.png

    • jstrahl

      I wonder why the relative gaps in the SF Bay and Monterey Bay. Not that they are getting shafted per se, still getting around 5 inches by the 25th, per the model.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Is there any flood potentials for the Central Coast again?

  • Apollo

    It’s close when you see the flash and not a second later you here the cracking in the atmosphere.

  • Sublimesl

    GFS is showing some heavy duty SoCal storms near end of the loop. Yes, fantasyland, but still….

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      With the pattern we have been all winter, it is more likely to happen

  • Mr Montana

    has anyone seen the fantasy land gfs 12z model? If it comes to pass, looking good for a so cal soaking! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8aa70e721bebfb67603a912065c85b89d4af58a54e4bcf61314413713ad1ce87.png

    • RunningSprings6250

      It’s been so darn consistent too!

  • Charlie B

    Reno officially received about 1.4″ yesterday (daily record) and now has 6.66″ for the season starting Oct. 1. Average for the year is 7.5″ so we are 80+% of our yearly total, with a long way to go until summer. The readings are taken at the airport, which is one of the drier parts of town. I suspect that the western foothills are already in the 15+ inch range for the season, which is quite impressive.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Got my weather station up yesterday evening right before the rain started. Not a huge soaker but I will take .45
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4c47c031424573f0a8aaa50a1092830a434ff080dd20c117064b5691b58b56aa.jpg

    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      How do you like it so far?

      • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

        I love it. Christmas present from the wife. My house backs to a canyon so I am also very interested to have the wind speed measured during our Sanat Ana events.

        • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

          Great present! Any idea if it gives you the ability so serve as an additional weather station on wuunderground?

          • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

            I does, I just have not done so yet but intend to.

    • happ [Los Angeles]

      Do you have backup rain gauges?

      • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

        I do not.

    • Tom

      Thats about what I got in Trabuco. Thinking this and the other remnants coming through later in the week could hopefully bring an inch total.

      • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

        That would be sweet. Amazing how different this season is vs the last few. Take anything we can get!

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • benSoCal

    It has been great following all the action in all corners of California this week.
    Hopefully the weather gods can keep it up! A couple pics after the rains this morning in LA. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6ab0c72656bdafba7ff7b90db6330159fd5d1d72e0a593e3f4f025aaa713080e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ab9bb4ea1acc1becbe9e2d5d507906121ac9a0e9bd00179c639ebf3a951d47f9.jpg

    • RunningSprings6250

      Hey what happened to the hollyweed sign.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        The clouds at the hollywood sign are smoking it right now

      • Tuolumne

        It left the joint.

  • John Curtis

    In five years, we will be reading in meteorology about the “Curtis Coastal Fog Theory”. I have my staff combing through historical data to verify.

    • molbiol

      Are you saying that the pattern/occurrence of coastal fog during the summer is a predictor of winter precipitation? I am asking this in all seriousness as I would be curious if there is a correlation…

      • John Curtis

        Yes.

    • click

      Staff consists of you and River Man?

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        His other staff is the marine layer

      • John Curtis

        Yes, and a couple others that I keep in the back office.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      What is the Curtis Coastal Fog Theory?

      • John Curtis

        Dry winter: No fog in August and September. Opposite: Wet.

        • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

          It was cool and foggy during all of July, August and most of September

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Weird that nordoff ridge and old man mt didn’t outperform the valley. With the sw flow I thought the area would squeeze out more…

      • John Curtis

        Yes. Very atypical year up there. I wonder if the gauges are accurate? It doesn’t make sense.

    • LBurk

      I live near the coast and I have noticed this correlation. It was quite foggy this summer, so I bought a rain coat. We had very little fog in 2015, I skipped coat purchase, even with the El Nino present.

      • John Curtis

        Very wise.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)
  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    As Cap’n had noted earlier the snow is dumping around Truckee-grabbed this pic from my cam sure looks different than yesterday. 80 is supposed to be opening at 10:30 but I’d suspect it will close again with whiteout conditions.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ea558d5ecce5faaba169ff3be98342a1103c9d88b0a6e76bfccf47bad1edf779.jpg

  • roseland67

    At 10:00 am:pst,
    Shasta, Oroville & Folsom are dumping over 1/4 billion gallons/minute and losing ground, all lake levels are still rising, that is staggering,

    • alanstorm

      They better hurry. Tomorrow’s storm has as much rain as the last, & next week looks BRUTAL

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Good news! Lake Cachuma is slowly climbing up! Lake Cachuma got 1.14″ of rain last night

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7d659d496bc1e1a7f08876ebef182de67c9831d743f7db707e537b708ae6f70c.png

    • RunningSprings6250
      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I’m already above average for the month, even I don’t get as much as that, I’m not too worried anymore.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Someone is feeling rather smug about their recent rains. ?

      • jstrahl

        Which period?

    • Will (Solvang CA)

      That is good news indeed – especially when you look at the 5 year chart.. this is the first time it’s actually moved up in years.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/19b849fd6d59369a8390f1379603ec75e4514725cafdf935e8192371332ddc98.png

      • lodule16

        Looks like the water equivalent of the Great Recession…

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Hopefully the storms showing up in the models through the extended period materialize so we can add to that trend.

    • Will (Solvang CA)

      Thunder98 since you are in Santa Barbara County I think you will find some interest in this – I enjoy the County’s rainfall/hydrology website but I wanted a more visual representation of the data on this PDF: http://cosb.countyofsb.org/uploadedFiles/pwd/Water/Hydrology/rainfallreport.pdf

      So I set up a couple simple charts, one is a bar chart that shows each official rain gauge with the water year rainfall overlayed onto the annual average, so you can watch them “fill up” as the year goes on.

      The other one is just annual rainfall by year, by I added the current water year with precipitation YTD as the final element, so you can see how we are stacking up to previous years (we’ve already surpassed the average countywide rainfall for 2007 and 2014 with 7.5 months left to go!)

      They are both here, I update them whenever the County updates their summary PDF: http://www.etling.com/rain

    • Upslope

      Importantly, for the first time since I found this cam, we can see water flowing in the Santa Ynez as it enters Lake Cachuma. Hopefully we are finally at a point where the ground is sufficiently moist/saturated that more of the precip in the Cachuma drainage starts to convert to run off ending up in the lake.

      All I’ve seen in this image for the last year + is a dry, sandy river bed.

      https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/dc70c9ab6cb92851925fb6e2783adb729c6be0d8a856b964c7988b0eb744aab5.jpg

  • Pacifica weather observer

    The storm now causing traffic nightmares here in Pacifica. A Mudslide is partially blocking Highway 1 Midway through town and traffic is a mess. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/de316bd0f4b6490bc5243357313c544b43e4759f5de6438d8aa7353f5797f7da.jpg

    • inclinejj

      KTVU 2 Fox Bay Area had a reporter standing by the gas station at Reina Del Mar Avenue (Vallemar) This lady who of course is more important than everyone else tries to cut through Vallemar cut through the gas station almost runs down the reporter and goes around the Pacifica Police Barricade with a Police 4wheel drive parked blocking the road.

      • SBMWill

        The longer we keep expanding roads the longer until we transition to a better more efficient system. Educate yourself.

        • WalkmanJG

          Please… Don’t even go there… It’s absolutely backwards logic that people will suddenly give up their cars because there isn’t enough road capacity… If you really cared about a more efficient system you’d be in favor of expanding freeways, and other transportation corridors, to support the capacity that is being asked of them… Far less pollution and fuel waste would come of it if people weren’t sitting for hours in their cars idling away the oil we have left…

          • Hobart Johnson

            Wrong. Research “latent demand.” In the 1950s traffic engineers believed we could build our way out of gridlock.
            They were wrong.

          • Upslope

            Also look up “induced demand”. The more road capacity you build, the more people take their cars into those roads, resulting in the exact same gridlock only with more pollution and more human intrusion into previously undeveloped areas. That’s the future you’re aspiring to? No thanks.

          • Nathan

            There’s no such thing as “induced demand.” Only “demand.”

            You yourself use roads and buildings that were once empty, built to serve a growing population, ie, demand. Using “induced demand” as justification for _not_ building is simply a disguised form of NIMBYism.

          • Upslope

            Sorry, but this is counter-factual nonsense. And for the record, empirical observations around induced demand shouldn’t be an excuse not to build. Rather, it’s a critical input into how to plan/prioritize future transit investments that should include a mix of different modes.

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            I think you are right with the general idea, but to imply that we shouldn’t expand any more roads is pretty blunt and out of context. I live in one of the focus points of Socal traffic undergoing a 2 billion dollar freeway expansion, and let me tell you, its a long time coming. As you know in California, keeping up with our roads is tough, and 2 billion is ALOT of money to spend. CA, being one of the more greener states, would be the first state to spend that 2 billion on mass transit if it made more sense than the expansion. Apparently the traffic engineers didn’t think so, just saying…..

          • Hobart Johnson

            Blunt, yes, because reality often is. Out of context, no.

            There are two critical points of context:

            1. Environmental damage and change including of course global warming. The automobile is a fundamental destroyer of the environment. No it’s not just air pollution, it’s water pollution and destruction of natural environments to build roads. Environmental costs of manufacture are exceedingly high.

            2. Economic and social costs. For every dollar a car driver spends on his or her vehicle, which is on between $5K and $10K annually (including amortized vehicle purchase cost), the costs direct and indirect to government etc. are three times as high.

  • Pacifica weather observer

    Rainfall total for the storm here in Pacifica 2.75 inches. We also had a peak wind gust of 61 miles an hour.

  • Storm master (Sonora CA)

    Am vary surprised on how over cast it is still

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
  • RunningSprings6250

    .75″ total and just misting now.

    I’m ready for the triple threat starting on the 20th, looks like all snow and would drop 3′-5′ round these parts, let’s do it!

    • SBMWill

      I love your optamism. I hope it’s snow because I’m having serious erosion issues in waterman canyon and we have only had baby storms so far. I’m f—-d if an AR hits.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Did it start with the 03 fires? So much of the foothills have trouble re-establishing growth between too frequent fires and drought/dry years. But the canyons can get hairy either way, let’s get those cold storms!

        • SBMWill

          You could say that it’s always been bad. 03′ was a horrible year I work on a property right above the Boy Scout camp where the mudslide went threw they actually brought litigation on the owner but ended up settling with CalTrans. Currently the issue is we have several clogged and buried culverts that need full replacement. Usually we would do it ourselves but our veteran operator just had neck surgery and I’m just not experienced enough to take on the project alone. Of course it’s this year we are going to get hammered and snow buried he is also a long time snowplower and Arrowheaf resident.

          The culverts clogged are causing the road to turn into a river and it is undermining the slopes down below.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Wow, Well I felt pretty handy the other day digging a little trench to get water to flow AWAY from the garage and down the hillside – lol – nothing compared to that!

          • Phil Johnson

            “I’ve advised the owner to contact a contractor but he’s a tight wad.”
            He will probably pay if the worst happens. Our local H20 company had to repair a mud flow result from a badly engineered forest road 500′ above us (BC) in 2014. It had happened exactly 20 years earlier in the same spot, and I do not know if the previous owner (a lumber co.) paid for the damage to the house (one wing was swept down and deposited on Boulder Street a block away). They did put in a stone-and-lumber bypass spillway, though, so the 2014 issue was not as serious.

          • SBMWill

            Couldn’t agree more about the cost will cost him 10x if we get a solid storm. But some people operate on different logic. He’s Czech they have an interesting way.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

      Salton Sea needs every drop of rain it can get!

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The cell has now completely disappeared.

  • alanstorm

    Renewed FLOOD STAGES for tomorrow’s storm. Upper Russian R at Hopland (south of Ukiah) projected to reach 5ft above FS, just a foot or 2 below the record.
    If this comes to pass, this will be a significant situation for quite a few homes & farms in the area, also coming in the dark of night.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/66eacb4816a3068a47f593d06142ea2f98dfe7c82f083cce00af55e5a619a917.png

  • If you factor out the seismic limitations on Anderson and Calero reservoirs actual storage capacity is ~ 80% as of this morning… i.e. 20% left to fill. Anderson is capped at 68% and Calero is capped at 57% limiting total SCV reservoirs capacity storage to 135,533AF instead of 169,009AF
    http://alert.scvwd.dst.ca.us/rgi.php
    Pretty much everything that happens in next few days will be almost all runoff.

  • Siernev

    Neat fact from the WRCC. (First time trying to post a Twitter link…hope this works.)
    https://twitter.com/wrccclimate/status/818524888751214593

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Yikes, the rock slide on Hwy 17 took out one of KGOs live trucks…guess there were injuries. Not a good streak for them a month ago a live truck was hit by a drunk driver and killed a pedestrian in San Jose.
    https://twitter.com/DrewTumaABC7/status/818534027510497280

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    The YTD Water year at this time (October 1st,2013-September 30th, 2014) in January 9th, 2014 the rain total was a extremely dry 0.53″ of rain! Now my YTD water year rainfall total is 8.81″! That is a 1662% increase!

  • Cap’n
    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Hopefully that wet layer froze solid and bonded well for the next load…

    • RunningSprings6250

      Wow, and the creek turned into a road!

    • inclinejj

      Is the bottom photo River Road? Heard they were evacuating people from River Road yesterday afternoon.

      • Muzikman1

        You got it. Nice bridge access to the Legacy trail and a good view of the Truckee.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Oh snap! ?

        • maddogokp

          OOPS!

    • Thunderstorm

      They say 5ft of snow in your area by Wednesday morning!

      • matthew

        It is absolutely dumping up here right now, and the main event is not due until tomorrow!

    • Pfirman

      Meteorological whiplash.

    • Yolo Hoe

      Dang, that’s pretty!!! Can’t wait to come up this weekend.

  • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

    1.38″ up here last night and it is beautiful…my seasonal waterfall is flowing and the frogs are emerging from there 5 year suspended animation…

    • I’ve wondered about those frogs. Is that true?

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        I don’t know for sure, but they’ve been basically non existent for a while. I’m guessing they borough near the riparian pond next to my house that has no spring feed…

        • Same phenomenon here. My guess would be the same as yours.

    • scott

      I love the sounds of creeks. Makes me want to sit by it and read a book.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    This same storm is bringing an ice storm in Western Colorado. Interesting

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ebc3891d29d25f69d55ea7547a10179c53774cce903a7fdff19a065dc0682fe9.png

  • Sorry if this has already been posted.
    Interesting information from Jan Null regarding Bay Area Storm Index.
    Of interest to most in CA because there are some doozies
    http://ggweather.com/basi.htm and full archive http://ggweather.com/basi_archive.htm

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Those Dec 1995 storms were crazy as I recall. Trees down everywhere. I had a final at 8am that day…I allowed 2+ hrs to get to school and needed almost all that time because of roads closed down due to trees and power poles everywhere. (normally it’d take 40 mins or so)

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Its mostly cloudy outside

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/023d42d8265c93dc3c11b0af7af44f9c33e1a7f89b24b1b0b369b16b838b335b.png Orange in Socal? There has to be some interesting weather ahead, even if this doesn’t play out like this. Buckle up California!

    • Phil Johnson

      Santa Barbara and environs look like the business end of a fire hose…

  • Crank Tango

    Oops, looks like some people didn’t read that new sign:
    https://twitter.com/WashoeSheriff/status/818500390224203776

    • FR44

      It’s a seasonal dirt road, folks! Oy …

      • Cap’n

        I was shocked last week to learn people are trying this.

        • FR44

          I know guys who have had trouble on this road in the summer with jeeps! But it’s obvious some people just go where the GPS suggests they go.

          • Cap’n

            I’ve done a few times, it has had some challenging spots.

        • inclinejj

          Never under estimate the stupidity of people!

          • matthew

            2016 Election is testament to that statement.

    • Wow even a Subaru. LOL

      • matthew

        There is no IQ test to buy a Subaru. Heck, they even sold one to me!

      • FR44

        The one I’m looking at is the Nissan from Missouri. Like the sheriff says, don’t blindly follow your GPS.

        • scott

          Probably thought California was all surfing and Beach Boys music.

    • Bartshe

      Stranded sheep.

      Remember when people looked at maps and interpreted legends?

      • Siernev

        How quaint.

        Actually, I love paper maps and still use them all the time. There’s no substitute. Although I’m pissed that AAA shut down their San Francisco cartographic office and sent all their map work to Florida. The S.F. maps were top-notch.

    • scott

      I talked with a lady who told me that all wheel drive subarus are just as good as a 4WD Tacoma. I laughed and this morning her subaru is stuck in the mud up to the top of her front tires and abandoned while I blew past her all wheel drive in my truck, lol. Here’s a question for everyone…..my truck has 4H and 4L settings. I have only used 4H. What exactly is 4L supposed to be used for? I know you can’t go very fast in that setting but has more torque. The mud and snow seem to work well with 4H.

      • John Curtis

        Uneven ground, wet surfaces.

      • Steep slopes and/or heavy loads

        • scott

          thats what i thought. Using 4L in snow or mud would seem to be hard to get momentum going.

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            Sometimes slow and steady wins the race…

      • alanstorm

        My wife tried in vein to have us get one of those “its all wheel drive! It will go anywhere!”
        No it won’t.
        Still thinks she can make it up our snowy/ice road with the Tacoma 4×4 with Hiway tires.
        No it won’t.
        Chains required.

        • FR44

          Occasional clearance issues aside, tires really are the key.

        • Bob G (Gustine)

          You should get reindeer and a sleigh

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        4L can be used if you are not going faster than 25mph generally. Some mountain fire roads are a perfect example so you are not working your transmission so hard and you have better gear ratios. The actual traction you will get is usually the same though…

      • Cap’n

        I’ve had to use 4 low a couple times, but it is very rare. You mentioned mudding the other day. One of my not so proudest moments was getting my Tacoma stuck in the mud at Prosser Reservoir a couple years back. Even 4 Low was ineffective and I had to walk a mile to the road then have a friend come pull me out. On the subject of Subie vs Tacoma, or any other 4wd or Awd for that matter, I have one word: Tires. I’ve done more with a Front wheel drive with good tires than some 4wd can do with crappy tires. My wife’s Subie is a beast, but we run studded tires on it and it’s a Forester so it has good clearance. I actually prefer driving it on crazy storm days as the light bed of my Truck is ripe for fish tailing, even with a shell and sand bags when needed. Having said all that, I wouldn’t trade my Tacoma for anything.

        • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

          Also, 4WD isn’t always the same as AWD. 4WD is usually a 50/50 split in power between the front and rear axles, where some AWD can be like 70/30 between the front and rear. Some AWD have couplers that can distribute the power around unevenly which is smooth on the road but not always the best for getting unstuck. (I’m not super familiar with subie AWD though)

          • Cap’n

            You’re speaking my language. For offroading, 4WD is my preference no brainer. But for up here in snow country, I don’t mind a computer transferring distributing for me as I drove from snow, back to ashphalt, then snow again.

          • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

            No doubt!

          • matthew

            Yes, for offroad you want 4WD. For onroad driving, especially in the snow, I do not think that Subaru’s symetric AWD system can be beat.

        • scott

          I wouldnt trade mine in either. Its 2005 and running well onside of the leaf springs recall a few years back.

        • inclinejj

          Did you try rocking back and forth between Reverse and 4 Low? That has got me out of a couple jams.

          • Cap’n

            One of these days I’ll post a photo so you guys can laugh at me. I was resting completely on the frame, it was hopeless.

      • matthew

        I have used 4L on steep, rocky roads to get into backpacking trailheads. Basically places where you are rock-crawling at 5-10 mph and want to use the engine to control your speed rather than the brakes. It is either that or walk.

      • Crank Tango

        Low is so you don’t spin the tires.

      • inclinejj

        I have only used 4 L in my 4 Runner a couple times. Once with traction control, Going down an icy downslope in Incline. The little button right by the gear shift. A couple times I have had to use it to get over the berm when the plows push all the snow up against my truck.

        Oh and once trying to get back out of Hell Hole Res.

  • Yolo Hoe

    A very nice bonus shower just started in Davis — temperature 54 F — wind calm — barometer at 30.06.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    The inflow from the Merced River to Lake McClure is currently about 27,000 CFS according to the DWR. Can that be correct? The river has gone up 53,941 acre feet in one day.

    • OldSnwSrvyr (Paradise)

      Sounds correct. 27,000 cfs flow for one 24 hour period would equal 53,554 acre feet

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Thanks

    • Upslope

      That looks like the average for yesterday. At present, it is flowing at closer to 36,000 CFS. Rule of thumb is that for every 12,000 CFS of flow, that delivers 1,000 AF of water/hr. As of the noon hour, McClure was going up by 3000 AF/hr, so the math is simple. But this is a net figure (gross inflows/outflows not available hourly on the CDEC site for some reason), so gross inflow may be substantially higher if they’ve opened the gates up to any degree.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Cool, thanks.

    • roseland67

      If the 27,000 cfs quantity is constant for 24 hours, (it’s not, it changes constantly), you would add 12 million gallons/minute, 733 million gallons/hr

  • BeerguyOE

    Arroyo Seco river is raging down by Soledad and Greenfield in Salinas Valley photo via Paul Clifton https://twitter.com/RoyalPhoto_/status/818538027567878144

    • cabeza tormenta

      THAT ought to recharge the Salinas valley aquifers!

      • Phil Johnson

        unfortunately, it has to slow down or get damned up somewhere; my impression is that river is free-flowing. Could be wrong, correct me if I am.

    • Craig Matthews

      Thanks for posting this….was wondering how the Seco river was doing…might be headed thatta way this afternoon so will try to get some pics.

  • Admode (Susanville)
  • molbiol

    Yes it is still early but the ECMWF is showing signs of a very powerful Pacific Jet stream developing upstream over the pacific toward the middle of next week. This lends support to the stormy pattern the GFS has been showing re-developing next week after this weekend’s break in the action. And to think we still have all of FEB and March ahead of us!

    • kipling

      Dear God. Where will all the water go?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Generally down. And then over. Repeat until it hits the Pacific.

        • Sublimesl

          Then back again ultimately.

          • Charlie B

            The circle of life, Simba.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Cachuma Lake

        • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

          I’ll call you’re Cachuma Lake, and raise you Lake Morena, Barrett Lake, and Sweetwater Reservoir 😉

          • Scott Turner

            I’ll see that and raise you a Lake Henshaw and Lake Hodges.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Had a 3:15 am wake-up call from mother nature this morning. Haven’t heard thunder that loud in a long time and rumble for what seemed like 30 seconds. Heard about ten rumbles of thunder but the rain was not as heavy as expected with t’storm convection. My final tally is 0.67″.

    The 12z beginning Jan 21 thru Jan 25th looks very good for SoCal. I know, I know………”it’s fantasyland”, but it sure looks good at this moment.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      The exciting part is that the potential is there, and our active pattern looks to continue!

  • Quagmire Cliffington

    Unbelievable things just happened and even more things are going to happen this week.

    Aside from the occasional person complaining that it didn’t rain where I live (99/100 times that poster is from SoCal) this has to be one of the best forums on the internet. It’s rare these days to find that in our current political climate.

    Ok, back to making fun of everyone again.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      But I want an AR too !

    • Cap’n

      Giggity

    • Crank Tango

      I was really wishing you were around yesterday.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      To my recollection, the “Event Planner” was not from SoCal.

    • Phil Johnson

      Bigly.

  • cabeza tormenta

    My bad re: Placerville rain totals, I only counted from what i saw in the gauge as of 5:00p.m. on the 8th, rather heavy overnight showers added 1.90″ for a grand total of 5.60″, more in line with what others recorded.

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Thanks to everyone for posting pics of all these rivers. It is great seeing pictures of these rivers full of water and these dams filling with water. Even San Luis Reservoir which was almost empty last year is currently 66% full and almost 100% for YTD

    • scott

      I love the pictures! This website has such a positive feeling upbeat tone this year and its wonderful. I enjoy talking and socializing with everyone. Compare that to 2014-2015 when it was so bad I was considering moving to Idaho and fell into a depression all summer. What a difference this year has made. Rain is like a weather dweeb’s natural prozac.

  • Lost cell service for 14 hours and power for 9, I’m not dead but the rain sure is, been snowing all day. Cell tower above boreal died and left whole summit area without at&t service, was a little heinous the tower would turn on for about 1 minute the internet would come on just long enough to load discus but disconnect by the time I could comment. I’m sure there were some very pissed off and confused motorists trying to make it through the region.

    • Cap’n

      SO Glad You Posted This!! My phone has been out in our neighborhood all day, but it just came back on as well. Enjoy the storm. It’s been snowing good down here most of the day.

  • inclinejj

    South River Road Southport (West Sacramento)

    Sorry first I phone and I am trying to figure out how this works.

    http://www.cityilights.org/2017/01/09/south-river-road-closure

    Picture of the Sacramento River above.

  • AlTahoe

    It appears that we ended up with a little bit over 5″ of rain here in South Lake Tahoe. Glad that the storm underperformed somewhat here. If we would have received the 7-10″ that was forecast we would have been in big trouble. Officials said that if the truckee had gone 6″ higher they were going to evacuate all of the state streets by the Tahoe keys. The rain stopped at just the right time.

    • weathergeek100

      Snowing there yet?

      • AlTahoe

        It stopped snowing around 10:00am after we picked up about an inch

  • alanstorm

    SW flow/AR continues in Mendocino Co today with post frontal convective showers. Another 1″ after 4.3″ yesterday.
    Not thrilled to hear “high wind warning” possible for tonight/tomorrow’s storm, 65mph gusts possible ?
    Another FOOT of rain for the Feather R watershed & 8″+ around here?? ( NOAA 5 day below)
    This flood ain’t over yet……
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/56656846df6014f5755cecb17eb9f7d02d4e8d5735c1fd6dc2b8e6cc08f18d69.jpg

    • jstrahl

      Wow, look out!

    • karlstorm

      Do you remember a wind storm in mid-December 1995? I was living in the Willits area, then. That storm is my reference for wind. I call it the PG&E storm, because PG&E had significant trouble restoring electricity everywhere. I remember that some people in outlying areas were without electricity for months.

  • TK

    I hope y’all don’t mind one more question. What do you think of driving from the East Bay to Monterey/Pacific Grove and back tomorrow? I’m thinking the roads will be cleared up, but the rain is returning. Forecast is for 1″-1.5″ of rain, but I’m not sure how saturated everything is.

    • Phil Johnson

      I’d give myself an extra hour, and partly depending on the time you leave and start return. Half hour each way. Saturation is the name of the game; but the route is pretty flat, so the only issue will probably be bad drivers who are blindly following GPS and not paying attention. The area through SB County might be the only hilly slide area, unless you are coming down Hwy 1; then it should be pretty smooth sailing — if you can get there via Hwy 17. That is a road I would stay away from.

      • TK

        Yeah. I was thinking of 17, then it closed for a mudslide today and I thought that might happen again. But the alternative, 101, was closed in Gilroy for flooding today, so there’s that. Trying to decide if it will improve enough tonight before the rain starts again tomorrow, or if we’ll by back where we started.

        • Phil Johnson

          Rain’s starting already in BC and looks like it will stay with us through tomorrow. First time I heard of Gilroy/101 flooding. Exactly where? (I suppose it has happened before, but am curious why). If the amounts don’t go over, oh, I don’t know, 2″ by dawn, you will probably be ok — unless there was mud along with the water.

    • Crank Tango

      Omg I was stuck on 101 doing that a couple of weeks ago both ways and it added at least a half hour and it was good weather. So avoid rush hour at least.

    • Robin White

      Drove from Healdsburg to Pacific Grove yesterday, via Highway 1, when it was still raining and blowing hard.
      No problems
      Robin

  • Thirstier Nick (Santa Maria)

    Got 1.66″ of rain at home with a couple more storms coming through Thursday.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    This January is already 318% better than January 2014!

    • Charlie B

      I think that was a pretty low bar.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        I got 3.18″ of rain so far and Jan 2014 I only got 0.01″ of rain. We are going to get even more rain coming

  • Bob G (Gustine)

    Bryan As forecast. Discusses number of things today long range

    http://opensnow.com/forecasts

  • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

    Question for the experts. Can you provide a basic synopsis of the various flows that can develop when a storm is hitting the bay area (or CA in general) and the effects. If the low and front is coming from the GOA, where would winds come from before and after passage of front. I believe our most recent AR had a SW flow, but I noticed we received better returns in peninsula and south bay area when the flow turned NW.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      The winds before a cold front usually blows S, SE or SW and after a cold front the winds usually blow NW

  • TahoeCard

    Was off the blog for a day due to power outage. Pretty crazy on west shore of Tahoe. Several friends with flooded subarea and garages. Everyone was skipping around to different houses to help out. The snowpack held up remarkably well. Still 2 1/2 feet of the 3 to 3 1/2 ft we had in front yard. Most of the runoff was the rain. 89 on west shore was under water is several areas but drivable. Snow level change came at the right time.

  • My rain gage overflowed at 5″. So rates were much higher here.

    • CHeden

      So much for south bay rain-shadowing, eh?
      Glad you finally got what you had coming.
      Gonna be extra hard on you when the next AR gives you a “Linda Ronstadt”….i.e. Blew bye-you.
      LoL

      • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

        Thats 3 inches more than San Francisco, so maybe he lives in a non shadoweed portion of San Jose?

      • Yes. Should be interesting.

    • inclinejj

      I was hoping he would have told us the “fish story”

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby (San Jose)

      You got 5 inches from the AR in San Jose?! I got 1.8.

  • CHeden

    Speaking of the remaining snow pack, am I right in assuming (based on the plethora of great posts) that overall, the snowpack held up better than expected? Maybe our mountainous brethren can chime in??

    • VK (Sacramento)

      CDEC page shows current snow average @ 101% north, 114% central and 167% South, with a cold storm to come tomorrow night

    • matthew

      I started with somewhere around 20-24″ on the ground. I ended with about 6-8″. That was better than I expected, but I also had a little less rain than expected. Whether that is “good” or not is a matter of perspective.

      Oh yeah, 6100′ and 12 miles east of Donner Summit (i.e. a traditionally rain shadowed area compared with the west end of Truckee).

      • scott

        This storm coming in to the mountains this week has a winter storm warning from tonight all the way through Thursday with some impressive totals. That should help replace some of the melted snow.

        • matthew

          Yup. Expecting 2+ feet at my location. Much more higher up.

          • Cap’n

            I hope so. I’m a little concerned about the rise in snow levels during the heavy stuff Tuesday night, but NOAA has stayed firm with good totals.

      • AlTahoe

        I went from about 8″ in the front yard down to 1-2″ of pure ice

    • Cap’n

      Pretty good still in my area, but I started with 4 feet a day before the rain. Up top lost some but I’m sure they’re fine. Lot of avalanche danger right now though, noticing multiple resorts closed for a day or two.

    • TahoeCard

      Held up very well. The three state regions added a lot of water in the snowpack even with the warm storm. Some of that was the lower regions not losing that much and the upper regions absorbing most of the rain. Most of the runoff in my neighborhood (Homewood) was the rain and not melting snow. The snowpack was fairly well compacted to start and in my opinion it takes a bit longer event to really get the snowmelt going in earnest.

    • CHeden

      Thanks everyone…kinda confirming what I was hoping!
      FWIW, this next incoming system already has a different feel to it. Pre-frontal winds have been occasionally brisk with a more W-E track to the clouds than this weekend’s event. I suspect we’ll have more lift and cooler air with this system (at least here up north), hence more moisture making it over the coast Range? By and large, wouldn’t be a surprise if we exceeded this weekends totals.
      We’ll see.

  • Craig Matthews
    • Rusty Rails

      I take it the punch through to the sea kept it from scouring out the sand around the bathrooms again.

      • Craig Matthews

        Yes, exactly. The punch through happened at the very south end of the Lagoon a couple of weeks ago, and then re-punched through that same area again a few days ago….unlike 2011 where it breached on the north side and undermined the bathrooms and part of scenic drive.

        • I thought that was 05-06? I’ll need to dig through a flash drive and check

          • Craig Matthews

            It was 2011 according to my old files. But I recall hearing it happened in 2005 too, so..

          • “Monterey Pine on Scenic Drive vs Carmel River best breach point for Steelhead” year.

  • TK

    King Tides tomorrow through Thursday. Wonder what impacts that will have on roads near the coast.

    • Craig Matthews

      With a deep surface Low riding up the Norcal Coast tomorrow, I think the combo of strong southerly flow push up against the coast and Lower surface pressure moving northward up off norcal will cause some surging, especially on the south to west facing areas from Santa Cruz north….gee, combine that with King tides will likely produce greater flooding.

  • thlnk3r
    • Brutal.

      • Craig Matthews

        Avatar 😉

    • Phil Johnson

      Wow. 30+ Hudson Bay and above? Looks like the North Pole has shifted SW to the Canadian border.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay
  • Admode (Susanville)
  • HighWater
    • Nathan

      Woowwwwwww

    • Craig Matthews

      Awesome snow coverage. Might have to re-schedule the annual backpack trip to latter summer if this keeps up.

    • scott

      I hear Bishop might even get a good dumping from this. Does it snow much in Bishop?

  • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

    18z isn’t done loading but is already bringing the goods for the second half of this week! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2ec03fa0f874781ee1a9e48f972ca8d01966c84592402ee750122e8f63c7947f.gif Exciting times!

    • RunningSprings6250

      It’s definitely getting stronger with consecutive runs today

    • Craig Matthews

      Nice to see a colder Low swing down on the backside. This could be good for socal to get more precip. Might also, get some snow on the coastal ranges of central ca with that…

    • April hope brings May nope

      Wow. Salton Sea makes it known that it will not be rained on.

      • SoSocal (Chula Vista)

        lol..just noticed that. State needs to do something about that time bomb. Hope all of this rain and hopefully more snow will allow the state to allocate more water for it.

      • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

        Your cat looks scary

        • April hope brings May nope

          the dopey cat is licking catnip off of his lips.

      • Danlyle

        That is funny. A dry slot slides over the mighty desert sea! Good eye ?

  • alanstorm

    Silly Navarro R in Southern Mendocino Co flirting with a 10ft FLOOD STAGE tomorrow night over hwy 128.
    *Turn around, don’t drown*
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8d99e65a45c4e2dff6efa7e458d5a70996dcb4633e32d9c74ddaf9956e94f7c4.png

    • scott

      I sit by the flooded road and wait for some other idiot to try and cross it first. If he gets stuck, then I know to turn around.

  • Craig Matthews

    Severe line of thunderstorms making way to the NW CA coast right now. Special Marine Statement issued. Check out the radar….cant post sorry.

    • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

      Why is there already high and mid level clouds filling in? Is the next storm approaching already?

    • Craig Matthews

      Truckee/Tahoe folks gonna love this one too, all snow!!

    • Bombillo1

      All the usual suspects.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)
    • mattzweck

      were getting the same kind’ve clouds. down here in socal high desert/Lancaster area.

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)

    Does the next storm have a warm front with it? Because these clouds are exactly what you see when a warm front is approaching.

    https://rgsweather.files.wordpress.com/2013/05/warm-front.png

  • Thunder98 (Orcutt, CA)