Impressive early-season atmospheric river in NorCal & Pacific Northwest; some early thoughts on coming rainy season

Filed in Uncategorized by on October 11, 2016 2,760 Comments

Remnants of Typhoon Songda to bring powerful Pacific NW storm

Infrared satellite imagery showing category 4 Super Typhoon Songda over the West Pacific. (NOAA SSD)

Infrared satellite imagery showing category 4 Super Typhoon Songda over the West Pacific. (NOAA SSD)

Much of the West Coast of North America is about to experience a rather impressive, prolonged period of stormy conditions over the next 7-10 days. Multiple intense and high-impact storms are likely to affect coastal areas from southern British Columbia to the northernmost reaches of California, with more modest rain and wind likely as far south as the Bay Area. As is often the case during autumn storm events, there will be a fairly sharp north-south rainfall gradient across California over the coming week–with the far North Coast potentially seeing upward of a foot of rainfall while the SoCal metros (including Los Angeles and San Diego) receive little if any precipitation.

 

Minor weather tangent: West Pacific tropical remnants & West Coast storms
This unusual (but certainly not unprecedented) burst of autumn storminess can largely be attributed to the injection of moisture and energy into the Pacific storm track by present Super Typhoon Songda. Tropical cyclones in the warm West Pacific can occasionally “recurve” from their predominantly east-to-west trajectory, veering northward and then eventually eastward as they approach the active west-to-east storm track region and associated upper-atmospheric jet stream. Such recurving cyclones can affect West Coast weather via one or both of two possible mechanisms–either by strengthening and “extending” the East Asian jet stream further eastward over the North Pacific basin or less commonly by transitioning into a “hybrid” extratropical cyclone and arriving largely intact (but in weaker form) in the Pacific Northwest. In the present case, it appears that Songda will do a little of both–strengthening the overall storm track and persisting as a powerful remnant surface low as it treks eastward across the Pacific.

The path of Typhoon Songda's remnant surface low can be traced for thousands of miles across the Pacific! NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com

The path of Typhoon Songda’s remnant surface low can be traced for thousands of miles across the Pacific! NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com

It might be a bit surprising to learn that former West Pacific typhoons can have such a profound influence upon West Coast weather. But history suggests that there is a relatively narrow window in autumn–mostly during the month of October–when a rare confluence of events can produce truly extreme storm conditions. One of the most significant California events of this kind in recent memory occurred in October 2009, when the remnants of Typhoon Melor re-intensified as an extratropical cyclone off the coast of Northern California and brought extraordinary rainfall and damaging winds to a wide region. But even the 2009 event pales in comparison to the incredibly destructive Columbus Day Storm of 1962, which drew its energy from the remnants of former Typhoon Freda. The so-called “Storm King” brought winds well in excess of 120 mph to much of coastal Oregon and near-hurricane force winds from the California border to Vancouver, BC–an event that would be even more disastrous today, given the large increase in population and human infrastructure that has occurred in that region since 1962. Fortunately, as disruptive as the upcoming event may be in Washington and Oregon, nothing even close to the magnitude of the 1962 event is anticipated.

 

California impacts: Very wet and rather windy north; SoCal misses out (again)

7-day ensemble mean accumulated precipitation totals from GFS, showing a range from 7-10 inches along the North Coast to less than a 0.25 inches in SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

7-day ensemble mean accumulated precipitation totals from GFS, showing a range from 7-10 inches along the North Coast to less than a 0.25 inches in SoCal. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Northern California will probably see some hefty rainfall accumulations over the next 7 days as a series of storms take aim at the west coast. While the heaviest rainfall and strongest winds with the upcoming storm series will be focused at the Pacific Northwest, the northern third of California will experience periods of intense precipitation and strong winds through the next 5-7 days. In fact, a very impressive atmospheric river associated with the remnant moisture plume from Songda will extend clear across the Pacific Ocean by Thursday. Recent atmospheric model forecasts suggest that the amount of atmospheric water vapor transport during that portion of the event could exceed record values for the month of October over most of NorCal–a striking statistic, although it’s worth noting that October records are considerably lower than those during our peak rainy season from November-March. Moderate to heavy rainfall may occur as far south as the Bay Area, and light rainfall somewhat further south than that. There is a chance of some light rain in southern California, but at the moment it does not appear that areas from Los Angeles southward will see appreciable rainfall.

GFS simulation depicting remarkably elongated atmospheric river stretching from the Pacific Ocean near Japan to the far eastern Pacific near California. (Scripps)

GFS simulation depicting remarkably elongated atmospheric river stretching from the Pacific Ocean near Japan to the far eastern Pacific near California. (Scripps)

Winds will be strong and gusty in NorCal, especially along the North Coast. But, for the most part, the more damaging conditions will likely remain north over Oregon and Washington–where gusts in excess of 70-80 mph are entirely possible.
Rainfall of the magnitude that is expected to fall along the North Coast could lead to some flooding problems, especially since the first round of intense rainfall will be followed by another later in the weekend. Further south, it’s likely that even relatively heavy precipitation will be absorbed by the extremely dry soils without too much trouble. “Season ending” rainfall–enough to dramatically reduce wildfire risk–will likely occur this week over most of Northern California. Rainfall in central California will probably be enough to temporarily reduce fire risk, although the southern 2/3 of the state likely won’t see season-ending rains in the next 10 days. All told, this series of early-season systems will likely bring more benefits than hazards to drought-stricken California.

 

Latest thoughts on the coming winter: another north-south split?

The NMME is suggesting a north-south precipitation split is possible in California this winter, with dry conditions possible statewide later in the season. (NMME/CPC)

The NMME is suggesting a north-south precipitation split is possible in California this winter, with dry conditions possible statewide later in the season. (NMME/CPC)

Despite the promising start to the rainy season this week across NorCal, longer-term signs for the coming winter are decidedly mixed. La Niña conditions are no longer officially expected to occur, but the East Pacific nonetheless remains marginally cool, and a vast swath of the North Pacific from the western tropics to the northeastern extratropics remains exceptionally warm. The most recent forecast from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is suggesting that persistent West Coast ridging may return this winter–but not necessarily to the total impediment of NorCal precipitation. Interestingly, the multi-model ensemble is hinting that last year’s north-south wet-dry split could continue, along with relatively warm conditions–with SoCal remaining fairly dry and NorCal remaining a bit more of a wildcard (could be wet or dry, depending on how persistent the ridging ultimately becomes). With the ever-present caveat that accurate seasonal forecasts for the West Coast remain elusive, it will be interesting to see if the general spatial patterns showing up in these long-range model simulations ultimately come to pass. Stay tuned!

Tags: , ,

  • William_LeGro

    Oooh I just washed my car! Oooh thunder! Oooh lightning! Oooh big fat raindrops! Oooh weather.com did not see this coming! Oooh my AcuRite rain gauge stopped working because I put in new batteries! Oooh I hate that thing!

    But it’s raining! Oooh I don’t have to wash the other car!

    (post is subject to deletion after I actually wake up…)

  • Barney

    Who knew I’d wake up to all of this weather porn. Thanks guys! Cells coming into San Diego area now look impressive. Multiple texts coming in from So Cal brethren of the storms. Big blob moving into the north coast now , cells training down there, .2″ in the gauge here from last night. Yes!!

  • mattzweck
    • click

      looks like you are on the edge of that, have you gotten anything out of these besides wind and clouds yet?

      • mattzweck

        Just clouds moving by but looking south looks very stormy hopefully well get something today.

  • weathergeek100

    Could this be the year where San Diego county gets left in the dust while LA county north gets the action (where last year San Diego did well due to the post cold front northwest flows)? This plume of moisture has had a nice target on LA and the inland empire While SD has been left in the dust. The NWS office there says the late week storm may give little, if any, precip that far south. Rain chances have been reduced to slight. Meanwhile, the Oxnard office is surprisingly optimistic.

    • Bombillo1

      There was quite a lot of lightening Bolts emanating From San Diego training all the way to Atlanta. Very impressive totals.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Well, these past 36 hours have been rain free here in Ventura County. It’s really frustrating looking at this map…http://www.vcwatershed.net/fws/gmap.html, and seeing all of the rain right at LA County border. Looks like Running Springs is approaching an inch of rain out of this little disturbance! Good on you!

    • Rain free here as well. Glad other parts of LA county are getting a soak.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Temps dropped to 44 after being 51 for almost 24hrs. Rain and hail galore!

    • Tom

      Trabuco only about a third of an inch for the storm. But two very nice thunderstorms rolled through with frequent close lightning. One about 930 last night and one before dawn. Quite a show! Temp finally dropped to 59.

  • William_LeGro
  • 82/83 El Nino Baby
    • RunningSprings6250

      I’m still waiting as well LOL

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      It’s potential cyclonic vorticity, not to get mixed up with a giant ridge looking graphic, but you can see Thursday’s storm real nicely on it.

      • Adding the NP region is a huge plus for the west coast folks who go to TT

  • Barney

    Imagine if the North coast had as much play by play for us. Unfortunately there are only 3 or 4 residents above SF. What an amazing early start to fall.

    All of this action today should be enough to fight off the fear, anxiety and desperation that normally greet me on a Monday.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/c0b2146f21ce330586d5e40a37794a08f96da9a97dedf7ffe0b0314660e32410.png

    • Dan weather maniac

      I’ve been watching that as well. Looking good up north…. send it down the coast!

      • Pfirman

        Eastern Yolo County is windy and overcast, but it looks like no wet stuff until this evening. 63F right now at 11:00am.

  • Yes! I didn’t think the line of thunderstorms would move south, but it did, lightning and thunder right now in Temecula. Radar says more is coming!

    • Osse (Redondo)

      Did you maybe get the line that came through Oceanside a bit earlier? Looks like it was moving sort of NE ish.

      • Yep, looks like its continuing to train. Hope it continues to train and we get smacked.

        • Osse (Redondo)

          Yeah, cool, looks like it’s heading right for you.

  • Bahia (Novato)

    The flow has turned southerly in the bay area dark clouds moving in from the south.

  • Aloha12

    In San Clemente this morning from like 4-6:30 am the thunderlightning was incredible…scary even. A fair amount of rain as well.

  • MrTwister

    Im in San Clemente too! And was able to shoot these this morning: https://twitter.com/KhristianSnyder/status/790567291347808256

    • Sublimesl

      Those are truly awesome pictures. Its almost like you are a photographer or something.

    • Rams (HMB/Truckee)

      Honestly, those are some of the most spectacular shots of lighting I have ever seen! Awesome

      • MrTwister

        Thank you! It was an incredible display for sure.

  • Thunderstorm

    Very windy here this morning. Group of crows riding the branches of a Eucalyptus like its a roller coaster and having a noisy good time. This is the weather we were supposed to have last fall!

    • Sfedblog

      Where in the world is Waldo. again?

      • Pfirman

        Fremont area.

  • Guitar_grrrl

    Check out this morning’s wind pattern around the low up north!
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-124.34,11.37,244

    • alanstorm

      Wow. I wonder how much of a storm-surge will come in when the eye-wall comes ashore!

      • Pfirman

        And? Radar shows it’s on top of you now. CHeden must be sleeping in dreaming of salmon, steelhead, and trout.

        • alanstorm

          I’d love to be frolicking in the downpour now, but the lure of the paycheck had me at the Danville Art & Wine all weekend, so I can only admire from afar.
          I’ll be driving up into it as the frontal boundry slides south today, “punching the core” if you will

    • Fairweathercactus

      Good old fashion jet streak.

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      SoCal finally getting some love. It is about time and certainly a welcome treat! Time to break out the kayaks!

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I’m right in the line of fire, thunder right on que as I read this?

      • RunningSprings6250

        Looks like I’m in line right behind ya! We’ll see – basically been raining all morning and sometimes heavy bursts.

        • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

          My house must have done really well, I’m approaching an inch in my gauge since Sunday and it’s still raining!

          • Tom

            Hitting Trabuco now with heavy rain. Been thundering for past hour. Very spooky and beautiful higher based clouds. The rain then obscures the clouds but at this point do not see any lower level clouds on 5700 ft. Santiago Peak. The cloud formations are unusual and notable.

        • You guys were “anti-hosed” Glad this area is getting some good precip. I think this is a wild pattern for Mid-October

          • RunningSprings6250

            I think it’s weird how downplayed/unexpected the event was – but, then again, that tends to be how these tropically induced events seem to play out..

    • alanstorm

      That line of cells are training over the same area & more coming onshore. Boundry isn’t moving either, so I wonder how long before flash flood warnings will be issued.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      That line of showers / t-storms has produced quite a few lightning strikes since last night.

  • matthew

    The wind has really started whipping up here in Truckeeville. Temp is 58F with partly cloudy skies. Judging from radar we should be in on the fun this evening.

    Unless we are rain-shadowed, in which case the storm will be declared a complete bust.

  • Some precip amounts in SoCal. .20 and under were filtered out.
    YMMV. Way cool tight spread though. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/6f26f18d0b95c17b929ad316b143e9bdfd6fd739cf15994739af8f4ed0710877.jpg

    • thlnk3r

      This last time I can remember when we had this much lightning/thunder action was in the 90’s. I couldn’t even sleep last night =

  • jstrahl

    Dark skies, windy in Berkeley, probably won’t get rain till late afternoon.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Same a bit further East towards Concord. Winds blowing and swirling but no rain. Air still feels pretty dry.

    • Hexcellent

      In Mountain View, we’ve had mild wind gusts just after sunset last night and more built up through this morning. All day we’ve had sustained breeze with decent gusts, maybe 15-20MPH on occasion.

  • Tom
  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Though I was on the extreme western periphery of the moisture plume was still able to get a 4 am wake-up call from mother nature. Two big boomers that rattled windows with quick heavy downpours which amounted to .17 in the rain gauge. After that, just the distant rumble of thunder adding to the nuance of a great weather morning. NWS Oxnard posted only “slight chances” (20-30%) and less than .10 inches preceding the event, so me thinks this was a definite OVERperformer.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    Here in Orange, I was awakened by loud thunder just after 6 a.m. this morning and lasted for about 25 minutes of so before diminishing. There were frequent flashes of lightning to my north and also to my southeast and there was quite a bit of thunder. There were a couple of downpours here during this event.

    During the last hour or so, there have been thunderstorms in the Santa Ana Mtns area (east and east-southeast of here)and I have been hearing some thunder in the distance. Radar continues to show a line of showers / t-storms tracking over the same area and there is still more activity offshore.

    • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)

      Glad to hear you are not missing out on this action. Gonna be some heafty isolated totals with some of those training cells.

  • Radiation_Fog (Yolo County)

    New post, new profile name!
    Been on here almost 4 yrs now and really like how the comments section has grown.
    I live and work in SF, but my weather station is in my hometown — Woodland, CA — about 20 miles NW of Sacramento. Hoping to chime in more on here…

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Welcome!

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I’m tired of seeing storms missing the Central Coast. Sunday’s storm was pretty much like the GW field goals of last night Seahawks/Cardinals game.

    On the other hand, SoCal missed all the action last weekend so they deserved the rain this time around. It’s time to make California wet again. No duds! No ridges! No omega-blocks! No mid-winter heat waves!

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      I have a good feeling on the upcoming Thur/Friday storm system, especially for your area of central Cali if all the ingredients come together. Come Sunday I would expect your locale to be in 1-2″ range.

  • RunningSprings6250

    Finally passed the 1″ mark and doesn’t see to be quite done, new cells keep popping up offshore & it’s raining right now.

    Real pretty views of the valleys as I headed to BlueJay to get my Chinese food fix. Solo storms moving across the valley and then enveloping the mountain, watching the rain shafts move in and then being ‘inside’ of it, real neat drive across the Rim!

    • matthew

      Ian and his angry inch.

      • RunningSprings6250

        My wife would be complaining, but boy am I rejoicing!

        Coming down hard again and loud thunder, man this is just the mini plume that doesn’t move and keeps on giving! inch by inch!

        • matthew

          Kidding aside, that is a great start for October. Nice to get some moisture in the soil so that the December Deluge ™ can have maximum impact.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Indeed! I have my work cut out for me, several inches of catching up to do, LOL

            sidenote: thunder just rocked the house like I’ve never felt, like a long rolling earthquake and the deafening rumble just kept going, no less than .5-1mile away, the flash was intense!

            (My 11 year old was starting to cry, she got scared! I tried not to chuckle too loud LOL)

          • Barney

            Yeahhh! Sounds fun. We had one like that in early October that shook our whole whole cabin. Scared me and the dog jumped up.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      There’s a line of rain and thunderstorms that extend to the Southwest from your house all the way past Catalina. They’re all going directly to you.

      • thlnk3r

        If I’m reading my station correctly, I’m already over an inch of rain since yesterday. So much for NWS SD forecast for 20% chance of showers ;D

  • Fairweathercactus

    If some of that moisture from Hurricane Seymour got caught up in the flow with the next system things could be real interesting.

  • Thor

    Moderate rain has begun in Marin county. Heaver plume approaching the coast for this evening per the nexrad.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    Just saw a flash of lightning somewhere around my area in Orange and heard the thunder a few seconds later. The sky has really darkened over the last half hour or so and another band of showers has developed SW of here. I am hearing thunder right now as I am typing this.

    • itsGonnaRain

      Irvine – main and MacArthur we had 40 mins of heavy rain. Squall line stalled and flooded the roads.

  • UrbanBizarre (Oakland)

    It’s raining in Oakland! Just started sprinkling. Wonderful to walk outside in the blustery weather.

  • 714Beachgal

    Beautiful lightning show out my front window here in HB. Been listening to the thunder for a while. What a treat!!!

    • Osse (Redondo)

      That band streaming over/towards you seems to be intensifying! Please send it up here towards the “other” HB – Hermosa.

  • palmsprings

    So far only 0.05″ today, but it’s been quite the thunder and lightning show for the past 10-15 minutes from a strong cell just to the E-SE

  • Chase
  • Chase

    Dammit why is that picture sideways

    • Osse (Redondo)

      Worried you might have been doing a roll over in your excitement.

    • RunningSprings6250

      with phones (or at least iPhones, that’s all I have and this same thing happens) you have to take them in ‘landscape’ i.e. turn the phone sideways.

      OR

      edit and crop the photo even just a sliver and for whatever reason it will post right side up.

      • Crank Tango

        Ugh my iPhone used to be ok for pics, but now with the 7, it’s farts for posting on Disqus.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Something changed recently and now it’s easy as far as not having to resize photos – on the 6 at least it’s better now except for that annoying sideways deal lol

          (Friggen thunder again!) seriously loud!

  • Dan the Weatherman

    It is raining lightly here in Orange right now, but the thunder and lightning have stopped for the time being after a couple of flashes.

  • Here’s some Eu precip posted by Ryan Mahue
    https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/790666063155433472

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Looks like EC is more bullish on precip for California than the GFS. That would be awesome!

      • Still you need to look at what the ‘normal’ amount is for a ten day period. The Eu vs GFS total ten day precip is pretty close but one CFS 7day forecast wants to PASTE Parts of CA from SF Bay area south to San Diego. Still we are talking % of normal for late October so no Kayaks necessary….yet. Maybe kayaks in a month, if you believe one run! :))

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          “Normal” this time of year in SoCal for the past few years has been damn near Zero. Let me get misty-eyed at that purple covering 7/8 of the entire state for Heaven’s sake! 😉

          • Fine! Just don’t ask me what’s going on with the Euro:))

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      We only received about a 1/3 of inch from the last series of storms so we are not in any danger of flooding, lol

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      Making up for prior years!

  • Barney
  • Black Cat (Santa Maria)
    • That rain avatar has always looked like a dog with a very runny nose.

  • Starting to rain here in Monte Sereno area.

  • RunningSprings6250

    With slightly clearing skies we were thinking it was likely done – nope! More downpours and loud thunder! Most in 24hrs that anyone here can remember (post office gossip).

  • Just got the loudest thunder I’ve heard in 4 years here in Temecula. Very heavy rain too.

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      That storm complex really blew up!

  • Thunderstorm

    All the lightning will make the hills incredible green!! Nitrogen!! Will be something that you will NEVER FORGET. Southland in the middle of a THUNDERSTORM CANDY SHOP. Much more treats in store, enjoy!!

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Seen from the International Space Station in 3 weeks: there will be a 20 mile wide strip of green extending from OC, Northeast into the Inland Empire, with lesser green North and South of it. 😉

    • Tuolumne

      There’s a lot more nitrogen fertilizing plants from air pollution. In fact, it’s a real concern where there are rare plants growing on normally low-nutrient substrates, as these areas are getting fertilized which encourages weedy invasives.

      • Pfirman

        Say it ain’t so. Sad.

        • Tuolumne

          Serpentine-endemic plants in Santa Clara County, for instance.

          • Pfirman

            Up here in Lake and Yolo that would be Lewisia, a personal favorite, along with others of course.

  • I don’t think I’ve ever seen a storm like this where there is one band of training thunderstorms continuously training for 24 hours plus with little breaks in between storms.

    • RunningSprings6250

      It’s been back to nonstop thunder and lightning directly overhead for over 2 hours and like you said it’s been 24hrs of thunderstorms, whether on top of us here or in the distance. Seriously incredible. I would think NWS will have a post event write up on what came together for this extraordinary event that was incredibly under forecasted.

      It is understood that it is (fairly) localized, but nonetheless, this is nuts!

      over 1″ for today on top of .50″ for yesterday. Forecast was for .50″ at most and localized in the mountains…

      On second thought…..it could’ve just been those chemtrails yesterday…

      • Although I have only got 2 thunderstorms watching the radar and lightning maps have been incredible. Last night after that huge train of thunderstorms stopped I though that was it, but then a huge batch of thunderstorms came in again. It seems like these little cells are moving into an area of lift and they blow up right as the come ashore. It may be the nearly stationary jet right above us combined with some elevated instability.

        • RunningSprings6250

          Completely opposite of recent years past….everything fizzled as it moved onshore….hhmmmm

          • Yea, last few years have been heartbreaking.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            There is something very different this year than we have had during the last several years. Storms like this that surprise us with lightning shows and overperform with rain used to happen in years that were very good. This potentially is a sign that this winter may be a good one. We will just have to wait and see what happens as the season progresses, but this is promising to say the least.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        It was pretty funny watching my Intellicast app go from a stray shower or thunderstorm to scattered thunderstorms. They were forecasted to die down by now but they just keep going!

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      cannot remember the last time I have seen so much blue on one of these maps. I love it. I think it is going to be much cooler globally this winter than previous years.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Well, the second image is SST anomaly relative to current SST’s, not relative to long term average.

        • FolsomPrisonBlues

          Aaaaah gotcha! Even so, the cooling trend is encouraging. I just checked Tropicla Tidbits and the SST anomalies map is indeed not this blue 🙁

          • RandomTreeInSB

            The blob weakened a lot, regardless, and a few more GOA lows should finish it off 🙂

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            I think those GOA lows were what we were lacking to kill it off in previous years.

          • Bob G (Gustine)

            It has. That area of orange was much larger a couple of months ago

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        I hope the trend continues

      • The bottom map subtracts about .5C which is the approximate global SST anomaly.

    • CHeden

      Interesting to see the Indian Ocean’s continuing to cool down. Not what you’d expect for a La Nina.

  • Bob G (Gustine)
    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      Just read that myself! He seems to believe that if the blob does not return, we might be in decent shape. I am inclined to agree. This is the first time in 5+ years that the blob has not been in place by this time of year.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        Like what he says of long term models. I tend to agree

      • RunningSprings6250

        2014 I believe, the blob was gone October-December and to everyone’s disgust it came back with a veangance in January.

        Let’s hope it stays dead!

        • FolsomPrisonBlues

          I will break open a beer to that sentiment.

        • FolsomPrisonBlues

          I think though that the serious lack of GOA storms made it very difficult for that water to cool down. With the activity we have this year, it just may turn out different.

          • RunningSprings6250

            Makes sense to me!

    • I’m getting a feeling MJO may be a little quiet this winter, though. CFS puts it in the COD through November, but you never know. Howard does well.

  • Apollo

    A 969mb low in mid Oct. and it looks nice on the WV.

  • Thunderstorm

    No special weather statement for any area in southern california yet but there is an area of convection in the ocean that bears watching.

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    loving the wind in San Jose right now, been gusty since yesterday afternoon. Few sprinkles with it to!

  • palmsprings

    Up to 0.18″ now with on/off moderate showers. Really refreshing, feels like getting slapped in the face with a wet mop.

  • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

    Here is my crappy lightning pic from riding my dirtbike around Lake Mathiews. What an epic two days of thunderstorms! I really can’t remember the last time I’ve heard so much thunder! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ef6554dbde3322398bfefb511664a2fe6cfb858a0d0a87f336af5bba20ed4ddd.png

    • Osse (Redondo)

      Oddly, the thing I like about this most is the effect of having the handlebars in the foreground.

    • annette johnson

      No such thing as a crappy picture of lightning…especially if you are using your phone! Looks like excellent riding weather.

    • The brown in the foreground has been the standard. Wishing to see green.

      • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

        There just hasn’t been enough consistent rain in the last years to get the grasses growing. One good storm isn’t enough. I hope this is a good head start!

        • The water taunts us as it passes overhead. A little more has blessed the land of my beloved California.

  • I have not seen so many positives in a forecast for this area in years. From NWS Oxnard, who are usually pretty conservative:

    “The GFS ensembles suggest that the best chance for heavy rain will
    be north of Pt. Conception. Heavy rain is also possible for
    Ventura and LA Counties, but not as likely as up north. A couple
    of inches of rain are possible on the Central Coast,”

    • Rain (Santa Maria)

      I’m very excited!

      • As am I, though there is trepidation that we will be fooled, again. I would be thrilled with 1.5″ to 2.0″ of precip.

        • Rain (Santa Maria)

          Even 0.5″ would be amazing!

    • Azmordean

      So are the ensembles better looking than the Operational? Looking at the operational, total precip 5 days out, shows mostly 0.10 – 0.25″ anywhere south of San Francisco, with some isolated areas up to 0.5″ or so.

      I keep reading about widespread rain over several days, but the GFS Op doesn’t seem to be showing that. It seems to be showing very very light totals, with pockets of a bit more (I assume from convection). Hopefully what others are looking at is correct!

      • CHeden

        The wild card is the remains of Seymore and how it interacts with storm #3. The offshore Epac trough has already plunged to ~ 20N, and Seymore will start migrating into the base of the trough within the next 36-48hrs. With storm #3 progged to turn the corner at near the same time, there is high uncertainty in how/where Seymore’s moisture will enter into storm #3’s eastern periphery.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Damn this is just the storm that keeps on giving!! One line of storms after another keep lining up off the coast and moving into the southland! Looks like OC and the inland empire are the big winners with this system. Everything just keeps passing me by to my south, but I’m still happy none the less and hoping I get a surprise storm before the day is over as cumulus is building ATTM in Van nuys from the sun lining out for a bit and destabilizing things.. doubtful that I get a t-storm, but this storm has been full of surprises so I wouldn’t be too surprised at this point.

  • Tuolumne

    Just came over Tioga Pass and over to the Bay Area. Showers, lightning, and thunder in the early morning in Lee Vining Canyon east of the crest. The pass was closed for a while this morning due to snow, then opened after the road was inspected for safe conditions. Only a dusting of snow in the high country but it sure was nice to see. There were impressive snow banners on some high peaks. It really felt like winter is coming.

    Coming across the western San Joaquin Valley and into the Bay Area made me realize so much that I used to take for granted and now miss due to the drought. There were dark-gray wet-looking clouds at different altitudes and rain off to the NW. Green grass is already starting to grow. It was like November in the old days!

  • jstrahl

    5:28PM radar showing rain at the (Golden) Gate moving into the central Bay Area. Some yellow spots out in the ocean.

  • mattzweck
    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I went riding in Pinion Hills on Sunday, the clouds were awesome!

  • craig(Big Sur/Carmel Valley)

    A band of pre-frontal convective looking clouds just popped up last hour or so….looks like its headed toward S.C Mtns/Bay area and south Bay. Might blossom into something, might not….something to watch. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/94093cf7954748430b1b1dc05505286be6cddd884aaf818cacbf8125faf56372.jpg

    • CHeden

      Good catch! Assuming the squall line maintains it’s forward momentum, maybe something will pop off as it hits the coast.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    In downtown SD tonight for work and the sky just opened up and poured! Has been quite the weather day in OC day to SD today.

    • stormsurge10

      Down here in SD (or by my place at least) there was a 10-15 minute run of rain so heavy I could hear it over my TV at my regular volume (which is kinda loud). It was amazing.

      • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

        Walked from my hotel in the gas lamp to find a good steak and a drink. It went from nothing to total downpour as I crossed the street. “Managed” to find a bar to wait it out. 🙂

        • stormsurge10

          Yeah, the way it went from nothing to chaotic rain was crazy.

  • Barney

    Just finished up a ride in Soda Springs. The wind is howling and the sky is dark. Looks like this one might be more of a crest hugger with little spill over, but that blob off of SF looks promising. Soil is thoroughly damp. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ee34e7c1514e544743edd213b35b15accbf30e509f9113f0bc8dffb2687fd93d.jpg

    • Dan weather maniac

      It’s raining ok here in the east bay hills but so far the radar looks more impressive than what is happening on the ground here, which is odd as this area gets good orographics and generally hits the high end of forecasted amounts.

      The forecast is for 0.30 – 0.50 in the central bay by tomorrow morning so we will see how this area fares just on the backside of the Oakland/Berkeley hills, elev 600ft.

  • DelMarSD

    SD’s finally getting in on the action! Just saw a huge bolt of lightning! It’s not raining here yet, but I doubt I’ll have to wait much longer. Better late than never.

    • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

      I brought the lightning with me from OC. Happy to share… The wife says it continued all day on and off in OC. Total treat for the weather starved.

    • SoSoCal

      We got a nice little 15m downpour here in east chula vista around 6:20pm. That was about it for the entire day. Wish the upcoming moisture had a better track over San Diego County. Guess I cant complain considering we got a little less than an inch a few weeks ago.

      • Wet Line(San Diego)

        It was not much in Bonita, but at least it cleaned off my solar panels and washed the driveway. I wish it lasted longer but still refreshing.

  • Rain (Santa Maria)

    Northern California is seeing a cold season cold front and Southern California is seeing subtropical moisture. Very interesting

    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      I’m glad we had some dynamics along with the moisture!

  • Dan the Weatherman

    It has been raining fairly steadily here in Orange for much of the afternoon, but there were only a couple of flashes of lightning early this afternoon and only a thunderclap or two during the rest of the time.

    I will post a total when this storm ends, and from the amount of time that it has rained here with an occasionally heavier shower, I would believe that I have received around 0.5″, if not a bit more.

  • Huff (Anaheim Hills)

    Here is a shot I took early this morning of a nice bolt. This is looking south so I am guessing this is over Rancho Santa Margarita area in South OC
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/908a9d34a3164037028f57e67226d565333946b867dae22df0d7e5405ec8fd98.png

    • J Tang

      Nicely captured! Precious.

  • CHeden

    Looks like the front has stalled. The Bay Area should be getting on/off mod. rain for at least a few hours…if not longer. Up here in Cottonwood, rain and wind are winding down since the onset around 11:00 a.m. Peak gust hit 41 mph, and is still in the 25-30mph category from the south…so no frontal passage per se. Total rain only 0.19″ at my place, 0.25″ up in Redding.

    • Guest

      Coming down hard in industrial West Oakland.

      • lodule16

        Got the beginnings of a ballad there…

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      There was a bit of light rain earlier in Folsom, but that shut off quickly. I have to drive out to Mountain View tomorrow around 330am..Go figure it will probably pick up around that time 🙁

    • jstrahl

      Had a bit of rain around 7 (7:45 now), quickly shut off, a yellow spot (on radar) passed overhead but didn’t manifest itself much at ground level. And now the radar is showing a gap over the central Bay, more rain out in the ocean. i wonder if the front stalled north of the Gate.

    • Barney

      Looks like both you and Redding are under dark green again.

  • Looks like a freight train moving toward Vegas filled with a million tank cars full of life-giving WATER.

  • annette johnson

    Just had some amazing thunder and lightning with some decent rain here along the Colorado River. Short lived but it was quite the show, the sky lit up! Didn’t get to walk the dog because the lightning was too violent. Very monsoon like in nature. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/ec4412f2a84e864b42bb90ce5de28af26fd5d4250405f9e1287cf8ac429d9261.jpg

    • Thunderstorm

      Looks like you will have more action there in about 2-3 hours from the west.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I can see lightning here on the London Bridge webcam in Havasu City, AZ, and it is currently raining.

      http://hdontap.com/index.php/video/stream/london-bridge-havasu

      This is the first time I have seen lightning on a streaming webcam!

      • annette johnson

        Aww…I missed it on the webcam (but at least I got to see it in person!) Honestly I had no idea there was one at the bridge. Ill keep the link…thanks 🙂

  • RandomTreeInSB

    LOL… that one lonely cell over the channel islands. The island foxes needs water too! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b749130091e6b9b3c2cf1a66c15aa68ac5f5b97db34333b4737c139e7b22825a.png

    • Apollo

      That’s what I just noticed.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        That does look like a real echo in the way it is moving. I viewed the radar in motion and it is moving ENE.

        The rain has diminished in Orange County as the last of the bands have moved onshore and out of the area.

        • Apollo

          Santa Ana’s and Vandeberg radar show a small return. But doesn’t show the return like Sulfer Mtn. does.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            Santa Ana Mountains radar is located in Orange County in the northern Santa Ana Mtns, quite a distance from Ventura and Santa Barbara counties. Sulphur Mtn’s radar is closer to this location, so it would show the returns better unless it is blocked by mountains.

          • Apollo

            Its looks like it may come thru the Santa Clara River Valley with an eta of 30 minutes. Will be finding out and hoping it makes it to the ground. Humidity and Dew Points are ok here.

  • Apollo

    Is it a false return from what it looks like a small cell moving of the Chanel Islandscurrently? I don’t see anything on the IR. If it’s good. It looks like it’s coming my way. Finally something. Maybe.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      It’s probably real. The radar has been picking up on it since 5:30 pm or so, unfortunately it looks to be weakening as it hits the Santa Cruz island.

      • Apollo

        It’s something worth watching fersher.

    • Seems like a false echo to me (unfortunately). Nothing there one satellite…

      • Apollo

        Could you check to see if any Lightning in it. Thanks.

        • Phil(ontario)

          you could check…go to lightningmaps.org

          • Apollo

            Thank you for the link.

  • Rain (Santa Maria)

    Will the next storm system have potential tornado risks?

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Slight chance of thunderstorms for SLO and SBA counties for the next storm, according to Oxnard. So tornado risk should be very low.

  • Barney

    Rain has started. Wind gusts are impressive.

  • Nate
    • Mike Stephenson (Riverside)

      Good thing that storm isn’t further south, there are definitely people camping in glamis

      • Nate

        It reminds me of the tree in the forest question–if a thunderstorm is severe-warned, but there is no one around to directly observe the winds and hail, is it really a severe storm? Lol

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Let’s hope all the ingredients come together. Looking at the IR and water vapor satellite loops in the EPAC, the predicted cut-off low is starting to form and Seymour is moving into an area of better moisture transport for our area.

    From Oxnard AFD:

    Wednesday night into Thursday, the previously mentioned short-wave trough is expected to develop into a closed low at 500 mb several hundred miles to the WSW of Pt. Conception. The GFS and ECMWF both show a weak surface low developing as well. This will likely allow this system to tap into some subtropical moisture. Some remnant moisture from Hurricane Seymour could also get drawn northward into our region.

  • Bombillo1

    Started raining in earnest about 12 noon today. Raining without break at about .20″ per hour (moderate). 1.52 in the boot @9:19 PM. 2450′ elevation 51 degrees temp 50 mi N of Redding. We could get measurable rain for the next 6 days. Will be over 10 inches since the start of Oct by morning. Not bad for an Oct that had an ugly pedigree going in.

    • Barney

      Nice!! I was wondering if I could reach 10″ by morning myself. I’m at 9.3″ after the little bit of rain last night. If I don’t reach it tonight, Thursday-Friday look promising.

      • Bombillo1

        From the looks of The Loop we’ll both have 10s by morning! This system looks to be fighting above it’s weight. We’ll be rolling box cars by Friday!

        • Barney

          I’m right on the edge. This thing doesn’t seem to be spilling over the crest at all. I would guess it’s not even raining two miles east of me. But you’re right there is a healthy amount still pushing up. If we were to believe the Sacramento AFD or the 00Z we have fun times ahead.

  • Phil(ontario)

    South Ontario picked up 0.95 over the last 2 days. October total over 1.05 inch.

    • Upslope

      There is a rain, in South Ontarioooooooo

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    The CFS if not good at predicting LR these past few years, is however more reliable for short term forecasts.. in this case the next 7 days!! It seems to think all of CA will seee above average rainfall and the bullseye wil be the north coast.. there’s even some dark greens in SoCal.. also to note: NAM seems to be thinking that most if not all of Seymores moisture will get entrained into CA as a surface low develops and helps steer the moisture northward. The closed upper-level low then pulls all those juicy PWATS into CA! One thing that hasn’t changed throughout all the model runs for the most part is the very high PWATS that sweeps through all of SoCal and the
    Moisture just keeps
    Coming.. kind of like this event, but on steroids I bet. It’s gonna be one epic storm!! For ALL of CA!!! 🙂 ????? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/036a75bb0d093ccf90d33e12cd875ed24aaba7aee612ff8d0f251be9073da527.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/15331b7c9f79d59dfbb805d1469efab1f9fb4f8fce254b7f1dcf50d97966f638.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9978081b38996395f275397a253be8460a624e295491a3710f3edcde8cd29531.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e3b5be2c4aa4f5224400217a6fd83a7708f4b4d4bb63d88382af24638a2383f1.png https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5ef77f3a8c4da45dd7426652f914f51981736e14cde84cf43182649d9f107cbd.png

    • SoSoCal

      Assuming the elevated PWATS for socal is good news in terms of more potential rain for San Diego County as well? Been kind of bummed most models showing the vast majority of the moisture saying well to the north of us for the entire event.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Not much for San Diego – typical north south gradient with the good goods staying north of Pt. Conception…

        …BUT! In staying with the optimism, there’s a couple days left to pinpoint what’s going to happen and where Seymour will go!

    • RunningSprings6250

      NWS SD not too enthusiastic about rain chances, or rather thinks amounts will be on the light side. I’d be happy with another .50″ but the 1.5″ I just got would be nice again! LOL

  • Quick question. Why is it in Los Gatos particularly, always windy when the marine layer or lower clouds with moisture get blocked by the Los Gatos mountains? And once this cloud level reaches the city, the winds die down?

    • Rain (Santa Maria)

      Maybe the pressure gradient relaxes?

    • Tuolumne

      For the same reason it’s windy in Dublin when the fog hasn’t gotten there and perhaps won’t get there. An even better example is the east slope of Altamont Pass. The fog proceeds the wind and the wind speeds up through narrow gaps like the summit at Highway 17, then slows down as it spreads out downwind of the gap.

      • shampeon

        Kind of a similar thing happens in San Francisco in the afternoons and evenings, where the Sunset and the Avenues are foggy but calm, while everything east of Twin Peaks is still clear, but very windy.

    • Henry

      There is a wind tunnel effect when the wind is from the south. I live near Los Gatos RAWS, which is at 1800′ in the mountains about two miles from Los Gatos. This is one of the windiest places in the Bay Area. Even a modest storm like the one on October 16 will cause wind gusts of 50-60 mph. When there is a deep surface low off the California coast winds can reach hurricane force.

  • Barney

    Crest hugging but coming down good here the past few hours. Winds are really blowing. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/00a27829d91caa6b28603d7094ff1f947daf6d13dd1269823bed7d2415fe7c99.png

    • Bombillo1

      Barney, you get your “10”? It was a good night here, 11.24 in the boot now since Oct 1.

      • Barney

        9.9″, so close

        • Bombillo1

          Still raining there?

    • Pfirman

      SoCal grand greeting to a certain weather watcher.

  • DML

    Getting a nice finish for October, let’s hope we see more of the same in the next 3 months.

    • alanstorm

      ….& this month isn’t over yet.
      More is on the way, especially the north half of the state..
      Extended, moist SW flow, the gift that keeps on giving!

  • Rainmaker (San Jose)

    been hard keeping up with reading all the comments the past week and a half with all the rain events, and there is more to come! Pretty much after every storm its a flood of posts. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b19ec4a6118301445390b96dadc3f6d4bf5754210c73df0be63a7728ebdc2163.jpg

    • Pfirman

      Flood. Heh.

  • Shane Ritter

    I think the most Suprising thing so far this season is the model delivery. In the last few years, models would show activity 10-20 days out, then bail at 7-10 days. But this year, we are getting what is being shown 10-14 days out. And alot of over delivery to!

    • lodule16

      Maybe the models are responding in part to normal-ish vs. historically anomalous SSTs?… wrt climate crisis, at a certain level, it must be hard to model weather within climatology that hasn’t occurred in human history.

  • Chowpow (Arcata-ish)
  • Rain (Santa Maria)
  • Barney

    Another .6″ in the chingadera, two day total of .8″. Warmest morning in a while at 42F with some gusty wind and sprinkles, yet clear sky just to my east.

    Looks to be a fun week ahead… https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c2bef2641a2581492d1bba81854ace805a720dfa323858790fd3c5a27981e05.png

    • matthew

      Zero for the current storm over here on the east side.

      • Barney

        Yeah I was watching radar last night. Pretty much everything I got was because I was either right on the edge or it was just spitting over the summit. Probably didn’t make it any further east than 89. It think we’re in good shape though with the next two systems. Halloween snow storm?

        • matthew

          You will need to write about it here. I will be on a plane for Belize on the 31st. If Trump wins the election I may just apply for political asylum and stay there.

  • Microbursts

    4.32 inches and still falling !! This is the total since it began yesterday afternoon!! Location is “Magalia” in the feather river watershed . Approaching 10inches for the month and still much more to come??????

  • click

    The precip pattern for the last couple days in socal is pretty interesting, and the highest totals definitely follow the line of training t-storms. all things considered it was a pretty narrow band of precipitation. Happy to have .92″ to start out the season! https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/11283112aec9a2574078b66de95b7f6a9da55b07847b11a22a5f7c933c9f867f.jpg
    from NWS San Diego
    http://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/?product=onetwentyhourP&product2=&id2=onetwentyhourP&zoom=8&lat=33.92103676379743&lng=-117.33134887082369&time=undefined&PNGtypeID=undefined&cursorReadout=true&showElev=true&useEst=true&obsTempsChgInvert=false&CNRFC=true&COUNTIES=false&RIVERS=false&LAKES=false&BASINS=false&BURNAREAS1=false&NATIONALPARKS=false&ElevMax=15000&ElevMin=-500&QPEpointMin=0.00&obsTempspointMax=130&obsTempspointMin=-30&obsTempsChgpointMax=40&obsTempsChgpointMin=-40&SWEpointMin=0&SWEChgMax=20.1&SWEChgMin=-20.1&SDpointMax=400&SDpointMin=0&SDChgMax=100.1&SDChgMin=-100.1&waterTempspointMax=110&waterTempspointMin=25&peakDatesMax=9/30&peakDatesMin=4/1&opacityriverReservoir=65&opacityradar=65&opacityQPE=65&opacityQPF=65&opacityobsTemps=65&opacityfcstTemps=65&opacityFzLevel=65&opacityFFG=65&opacityQPFverif=65&opacitywaterResources=65&animateradarrefl=false&animateQPE6hr=false&animateQPF6hr=false&animateQPF24hr=false&animateTempObs6hr=false&animateMaxTFcstMaxT=false&animateMinTFcstMinT=false&animateFzLevel6hrObs=false&animateFzLevel6hrFcst=false&speedradarrefl=-200&speedQPE6hr=-500&speedQPF6hr=-500&speedQPF24hr=-500&speedTempObs6hr=-500&speedMaxTFcstMaxT=-500&speedMinTFcstMinT=-500&speedFzLevel6hrObs=-500&speedFzLevel6hrFcst=-500&cat1=true&cat2=true&cat3=true&cat4=true&cat5=true&cat6=true&cat7=true&precipToggle=precipValues

    • Similar narrow band of over 2″ in Sonoma County

      • CHeden

        Areas east of Chico are in the 4″ category, and now well over 10″ overall for October. Lot’s of good water for the Oroville watershed. One other thing, these early season rains are quickly saturating the soil, so subsequent rains later on will produce more runoff than usual for this time of year.

    • jstrahl

      Seems like the 1 beneficiary were the mountains south of Victorville.

  • Blob or dissipating Blob or Blob after being churned up. Just don’t tell me it’s being churned up if it comes back in six weeks. :))

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3f2746230d1c9692d3bbe2b65ea49a161642d165ba7ecfdfa7c6cbbb3e3db3d8.jpg

    • CHeden

      In addition to churning things up, it appears the EPac LP’s are drawing down cold continental air over the blob area. Not too much different than what we were ruminating on might happen a couple of weeks ago, eh???

      • Okay, I concede! 😉 White flag! 😉 I bring a 14 year old single malt as peace offering! :)) I made a quick comparo of surface vector when blob was big bad and ugly and recently. Looking at both 500mb and 1000mb.

        • CHeden

          I’ll take mine over two cubes, please!
          Always two there are.
          No more, no less.

          • roseland67

            Agreed,
            Add the slightest piece of broken lemon rind to the rim of my glass please.

      • Bob G (Gustine)

        What is the significance of the cold continental air over the blob area? Will that help cool it down?

        • CHeden

          Offshore winds tend to promote near-shore upwelling as warm surface water gets pushed SSW and colder water moves up from below to replace it. Continental winds also tend to be dry, so evaporative cooling of the sea surface is amplified. Lastly, the presence of the cold air will also help fuel EPac/GoA storms that form to the south which will also help mix out the ocean surface layer as well as reinforce the offshore continental flow….essentially forming a closed-loop/reinforcing pattern.

  • CHeden

    Just to set the stage correctly for the next storm on Thurs/Fri., here are a couple of images with the principle player’s identified. Several forecasters are confusingly identifying storm#2 as the one which will give us the main rain event with Seymore funneling in moisture, but in reality it will be another low (storm#3) that will form in the base of the EPac trough that will pick up Seymore’s moisture and drive it towards the Calif. coast. Looks like Cent/SoCal will get the warmer tropical feed, while NorCal will see more of an impact from the low itself as it tracks NE. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/64b70333b7c6939c194fc3fed0e4b1350aa8ce9ea2529e84699e526ffe61454e.jpg https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/2c5df47852bea3ca145ad5df4839cfcf425d5dd57518d64f03738a4cbb220f6a.jpg

    • Bombillo1

      An upper cut followed by a left hook. The Drought is taking a beating. Slip the ref a Husky to look the other way and let this continue.

      • CHeden

        LoL.
        But, it’s only the first round….and knockouts are not allowed until the fourth round. In the meantime, pummel into submission…no holds barred.

    • Spot on!

  • Crank Tango

    1.14″ here in Burney (e. shasta county) since yesterday afternoon.
    Here’s a little pic from Sunday–the ground was already pretty damp from the rains last week. Mt. Shasta would normally be visible on the horizon, but it just didn’t feel like it that day. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/5a6f04317066c724c15fa26330ce275c5372e9dfb6916f514227fa1349a06c81.jpg

  • alanstorm

    Seriously??? This has to approaching rainfall records for the month of Oct. by now .
    Another trough setting up shop, a constant, moist SW flow, & stalling frontal boundaries = another 3″-5″ for spots in NorCal.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d047672b6f54c72786f8124cb44842adf8dffb18acf34d6ad92fa5b8f6bf4b43.png

    • jstrahl

      Over 2 inches even in the Bay Area per this map. October record in Berkeley is over 7 inches (1962), so i don’t think we’ll set a monthly record here.

      • Brandon S

        This is the forecast for the next 6 days, not the totals for the month.

        • jstrahl

          I know that. I was adding up totals for the month so far with what’s forecast, which would fall way short of the 1962 total.

      • alanstorm

        Again, Berkeley doesn’t have the orographics. (A few miles east would be better)
        Was that record a result of the Columbus Day Storm?

        • jstrahl

          Yes, the Columbus Day storm.

    • Bob G (Gustine)

      We’ve had .3 so far this month, lol. October has been a yawner for us,

      • alanstorm

        Not much orographics in Newman. You got squat while Yosemite got close to 3″ last week. Same deal with Santa Cruz getting 10″ & San Jose getting .8″

  • Thor

    I dont know if it orographic lift or what but despite minimal radar returns, it has been raining non-stop in Marin country since about 4pm yesterday. My very unofficial and imprecise rain gauge says about 1.5inches…

    • Mike(Mill Valley)

      Seeing the same thing. Rained all night, at times quite hard.

      • jstrahl

        You Marinites hogged the rain again.:-) In Central Berkeley, .04 inches before midnight, .06 since. Radar shows a large green spot moving in over west Berkeley, i don’t see anything like drops at ground level.

  • CHeden

    Looking ahead for later this weekend, by Friday storm#3+Seymore’s remains will have ejected to the NE and moving into the Great Basin (2nd image). Along the low’s western (upstream) flank, the parent eastern GoA low will get pulled south to a position just off the NW Calif. coast, bringing potentially wet and dynamic weather conditions to most of Nor/Cent. Calif. (1st. image).
    Definitely another system we need to keep an keen eye on.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d01de32a493d84f0c20ee4fc765f0ab30ed0d7c76994df44ddb0176e3dc399da.gif https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b07eab7171f35fe69f89f8b487802231d2960ab00a54a6696eeccfc9c407fa00.gif

    • Are we kinda in a Rex blob, er, I mean block during that time in late Oct?

      • CHeden

        Upper air shows a persistent Omega block is why the lows are tending to bomb then stall on the block’s SE flank….as well as driving the mean trough so far south. Here’s the current setup at 300mb. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8ce8e1309c2bdb19386c2b82e4befb860c1f85251f73e198cdcd0f8a18e2916a.gif

        • gray whale

          i never thought about that but it makes so much sense — the jet’s turn from south to east in an omega is very sharp and pronounced and therefore a likely spot for a “traffic backup.” does the sudden turn also create more vorticity / rotation in the crook of the flow?

          • CHeden

            Yes. Not so much of a backup…rather a self-reinforcing pattern that can anchor over one area.

    • Barney

      NOAA crew seems to be excited about the Sunday storm as well. Temps and snow levels seem to keep dropping. A bunch of rain followed by snow; yes please.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Models keep going a little more north. Only showing 0.13 for the rest of the week.

    • Rain (Santa Maria)

      Not in my area it’s the opposite

  • inclinejj

    .34 Pacifica 9:30 am.

  • CHeden

    Latest radar loop is showing a fast-moving wave just crossing the coast south of Cape Mendocino and plowing due east. Not sure, but we may soon see an occlusion setup as it slams into the stagnant S-N warm air feed that’s currently stalled over cent NoCal???

    http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BBX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

  • If it’s on Twitter it can go here! :))

    https://twitter.com/RobMayeda/status/790960862659874816

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      How does Rob Mayeda do that? Special dispensation from the ECMWF Precipitation Police?

      • My guess is BC has a WxBell commercial license and a blessing from WxBell to post. You can always ask me, but I think Yanet is upset with you right now.. LOL

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Yanet will come around. She always does. I don’t know if she has a subscription to WxBell, but for some reason I never think to ask when I see her.

        • Yanet Garcia (NYC, USA)

          Si!

  • alanstorm

    Silly totals in this 7 day precip forecast for the Feather R watershed reflect the more southerly track of this weekend’s low.
    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/4f2355cc0fb2a05edf378638077271e780c521ddf49284fab4496db543e8f268.jpg

  • Rain (Santa Maria)

    Rainfall totals have been steady increasing again went from 0.68″ last night to 0.84″ right now for Thursday.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    After the NWS offices underestimated yesterdays thunderstorm outbreak and downpours over SoCal, I’m taking a pause until Thursday morning. As the Oxnard AFD mentions there’s just too many variables on how the cut-off low to our west/southwest develops and how it interacts with Seymour’s remnant moisture plume. Looking at the IR and water vapor sat loops they look to be on a collision course….IMHO.

    .LONG TERM…(FRI-MON)

    There continues to be a fair amount of uncertainty concerning the details of the storm system that will affect the region Thursday night and Friday.

    • RunningSprings6250

      It’s funny how confident the SD discussion reads and absolutely no mention of how badly they forecasted Sunday/Monday….

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yep… I was the only one in here believing yesterday would actually happen because it was shrugged off so much until things got more serious, IMHO bad forecasting for over-performers has been abundant this year in comparison to last. I also hope that is likely the case this whole season for most of us at least where they play it as .25″ but you get double to triple that.

        • That was a pretty narrow band and if something goes pretty stationery you can have this kind of way over and way under performance in a small geographical area rain shadowed or not.

          • Barney

            Yeah my grandma only got .10 in the LB.

          • I’ve seen her posts in the sub-forum.

          • SoCalWXwatcher

            She got twice as much as I did in Downey. Where I work in Costa Mesa, it rained/poured and thundered intermittently most of the day.

        • BRP (Ventura)

          Like Xerophobe mentions below, that band of thunderstorms was so narrow, that the winners who received rain and those who did not were literally separated by 10 miles. Look at the precip map for LA and VTA counties and look at how VTA county did not receive a drop over the past 48 hours. Starting to believe my own hype of a rain force field over ours and SB counties. The real question is, who or what is causing this? One more drought winter and all is….

          • RunningSprings6250

            Narrow and very long going well into NV – not isolated pop up tstorms like summer where a 20% pops covers the entire mountain and desert region for the possibility of a single storm to form.

            The GFS had that plume nailed and the precip amounts.

      • Jeff

        Picked up 0.27 in SD over the past 3 days, almost all of which was late afternoon to sunset yesterday

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      The storm last Monday 10/17 overperformed in many areas across Socal, when we were just expecting a little drizzle, and yesterday’s storm exceeded expectations for OC and areas South of that. I don’t think they can pin down how much subtropical moisture will get pulled into this next system quite yet.

  • Planning to have a new blog post late this evening.

    • alanstorm

      Great, because what’s happening is extraordinary, considering what was forecast less then a month ago by many. (not WW)
      Right now, I’m seeing 50%+ chances EVERY day in the 10 day for Mendo Co.
      If this continues thru next month, then by Dec when the bigger storms hit, we could be talking about major flooding.

      • Bombillo1

        Alanstorm, this is indeed the set-up for a big water year and major flooding. The ground now soaking up copious amounts of water with these consistent irrigation events that we are having now. If Dec, Jan, Feb start landing haymakers we could have some real damage. The Yolo Bypass maxed out and all the river systems at full throat. This is now in play.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I like the projected storm totals, but I’m getting a feeling Thursday’s storm is going to be a quick-mover. I’d do anything for a 3+” storm in the Central Coast.

    • weathergeek100

      You’re supposed to get the brunt there in SB and SLO county. It’s going to be very beneficial, considering that region is the hardest hit by drought.

    • BRP (Ventura)

      Yep, I too am concerned that this will be a 4 hour wam bam thank you mam rain storm. No more then .50″ and done. You in Santa Maria, us in SB and VTA, better hope this is not going to be a sign of the coming winter, quick hitting, north to south trajectory cold fronts, never dropping more then .50″. If that be the case, God help us next June.

      • RunningSprings6250

        Well see, I was dead center in the mini moisture plume and pumped full of 24hrs of lightning and thunder, energized and ecstatic for an amazing winter! 😀

        You’re gonna get hammered, trust me.

      • I hope you are wrong, and NWS Oxnard does not quite agree at this point, still talking 1″ or more along the Central Coast, more in the mountains and foothills. From their current discussion:

        The confidence factor for rain rates over 0.5 inch per hour is growing and that could trigger our
        first mud and debris flows

  • molbiol

    This is a contentious topic, but I will post this anyway. Apparently the arctic has experienced drastic warming in the past; long before we were driving fuel guzzling SUVs:

    https://climatism.wordpress.com/2016/10/24/yes-the-climate-changes/

    I’m currently looking over data records from that period (those available) to see if the oceans/global temps and climate were indeed warmer. For the record, I think that there is a lot of over-hype, pseudoscience, and glamorization occurring on all sides of the debate. Very sad.

    • Past 40 years have been a pretty steep rise in global temps. Which coincides with a PDO regime change in 76-77. CO2 was climbing before and continues to climb.

    • Just to be clear: the included plot is completely made up. It’s just not correct, even in a relative sense…though it’s hard to be more specific, since there’s no Y axis.

      Assertions are not fact–just because someone says something is true doesn’t mean that it is. Here’s an accurate representation of the erroneous plot in the blog post above:
      http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs_v3

      • molbiol

        Thank you, that is exactly the information I was looking for. It appears that there was a “spike” beginning in the late 1910s early 20s. Although CO2 levels (may) have been lower then, I don’t personally believe that this is a convincing argument for what the article is implying..

    • Niteheron

      Yikes! That graphic is bad since there isn’t a Y-axes as Daniel has pointed out. Here is a better graphic from xkcd https://xkcd.com/1732/

      • molbiol

        I didn’t realize dogs were domesticated THAT early; I always figured it was only a few thousand years ago

        • Bombillo1

          There is now a great deal of evidence that dogs/wolves were domesticated about 40K years ago. Google “The Invaders”, a fascinating recital of all the most recent archaeological evidence. The book goes on to theorize that modern Humans prevailed over the Neanderthals thanks to this first domestication, the dog.

    • roseland67

      Nice molbiol,
      But people are still going to believe what they are told to believe by the political sides they are aligned with.

      They will read what they are told to read, interpret same as they are told to interpret it and recite it, chapter rhyme and verse, regurgitate it on demand when confronted by a differing opinion.

      There was a similar piece many years ago about the Great Lakes water levels, but them a significant reversal about 3-4 years ago debunked the argument.

      What seems to be clear is that no one has enough info to make an intelligent informed decision on what, if anything is happening, and what to do about it.

      Sigh

      • molbiol

        Which is why I am beyond pissed off at the two main political parties dominating the headlines right now 🙂

        • roseland67

          Amen,
          320 million people in this country and these 2 fools are the best we can come up with?

    • gray whale

      if tomorrow you want to study quantum physics or neuroscience for the afternoon and offer your expert’s opinion I’m all ears. 😉

      • molbiol

        I’m actually trying to figure out who those two climatologists are (Cliff Harris and Randy Mann). They are the ‘experts’ 😉

        • Someone else

          The good folks over at HotWhopper may have heard of them before, though a quick search didn’t turn up either name. Perhaps in the chat section.
          Variations on that “history” have been making the rounds in the deniosphere for some time.

          http://blog.hotwhopper.com/

          • molbiol

            thanks. the latest post there made me lol

        • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

          This should answer the question to his “belief”.

          In his weekly weather column in the Coeur d’Alene Press in Idaho, Harris said on June 6 that the idea that humans caused global warming is “a massive fraud in my opinion, a LIE, pure and simple. … This is a clever deception put forth by those attempting to impose a centralized, worldwide socialistic form of government headed by an empowered United Nations.”

          • Someone else

            OMG AGENDA21!!!1!1!!11!!!

          • molbiol

            I found this also:
            http://www.longrangeweather.com/about-us.htm

            Turns out that they give precise long range predictions for multiple locations. They seem to think Cali will have average to above normal precip this winter?

          • jstrahl

            Love it. What an “expert.” ROTFL.