After burst of early-season heat, a sudden shift to active weather across California

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 6, 2016 2,161 Comments

Recent Weather Overview

Record high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s were recorded on Wednesday across much of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits,com)

Record high temperatures well into the 80s and 90s were recorded on Wednesday across much of California. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits,com)

Essentially all of California received an early taste of summer-like temperatures this week. A very strong ridge of high pressure aligned with the West Coast brought very warm to hot conditions to a wide region–and and a number of temperature records were set on Wednesday from Southern California all the way north into British Columbia. This intense (but thankfully brief) heatwave comes on the heels of a period of relatively quiescent conditions across California.

As anticipated, the month of March did ultimately bring much-needed heavy precipitation to the northern 2/3 of the state–with many areas ending the month around 150-200% of the long-term monthly average precipitation. Southern California, on the hand, remained rather dry. This north/south split in precipitation has persisted through the entire winter despite the presence of very strong El Nino conditions in the Pacific. I’ve previously offered some thoughts as to why this might be occurring, and Bob Henson recently wrote an excellent piece on the relatively subtle storm track shift that plagued SoCal this rainy season.

All of California is expected to receive a soaking rain this weekend, and some spots could see rather heavy rainfall. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

All of California is expected to receive a soaking rain this weekend, and some spots could see rather heavy rainfall. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

There is some positive news to report: the Sierra Nevada snowpack as of April 1 is much healthier than in recent drought winters, and some of California’s most important (and largest) reservoirs are nearing capacity in the northern part of the state as a result of heavy precipitation in March. These two factors will likely alleviate some of the most acute short-term drought impacts this summer. On the other hand, though, it’s a bit discouraging that one of the strongest El Nino events in recorded history brought about a snowpack which, while much improved over recent extremely low snow years, was still below average. And the enormous magnitude of California’s long-term water deficits remain deeply entrenched from environmental and groundwater perspectives. So while much of California saw a modest reprieve this winter, our most severe drought on record is definitely not over yet.

 

Sudden shift to active conditions across California–especially south!

The rainy season is apparently not over yet, however, as a series of fairly robust storm systems are expected to sweep across all of California in the coming days. As of this writing, an unusually positioned cut-off low well to the southwest of Los Angeles is slowly moving northeastward, spreading mid and high-level subtropical moisture across the state. This low will continue to move closer to the SoCal coast tomorrow, bringing an increasing chance of showers in the very moist subtropical airmass. On Friday, this moisture plume will continue to spread northward, and showers will likely develop across most of NorCal as well. At the same time, a somewhat weaker but much colder Pacific system will begin to approach from the northwest, eventually merging somewhere near central California over the weekend. This is a rather “messy” pattern–with two lows interacting/merging directly over our region of interest. While the details are still a bit difficult to pin down, there is pretty high confidence in a period of rather active California weather beginning late Thursday and continuing at least through Monday.

Current water vapor imagery via satellite shows the subtropical moisture plume associated with the cut-off low west of Baja CA. (NOAA SSD)

Current water vapor imagery via satellite shows the subtropical moisture plume associated with the cut-off low west of Baja CA. (NOAA SSD)

Southern California will actually see the most precipitation out of this upcoming event, and some spots could actually see rather heavy precipitation (locally 1-2 inches or more when all is said and done). Accumulations in Northern California will probably be lighter but still rather widespread. Convective potential looks to be rather modest initially but will increase through the weekend, and so while isolated thunderstorms will be possible across much of the state on Friday, they may become somewhat more widespread (especially in the south) later in the weekend.

Interestingly enough, the GFS and ECMWF both indicate that this active spell will continue through at least the next 10 days, with a couple of opportunities for colder systems to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska through the coming week.

Given the chilly airmasses associated with these potential upcoming systems and the high April sun angle, instability will probably be respectable by California standards and additional periods of shower/thunderstorm activity will be possible. All in all, it looks like a fairly active first half of April is shaping up across the state. Stay tuned!

Tags: ,

  • Skye H.

    CNN has an article about the Omega block today…amazing how dumbed-down it felt after how much time I’ve spent on this blog.

  • Bombillo1

    Ok, this earthquake rash that is taking place is suggesting that the west coast of U.S may be next. The idea is that the entire Pacific Plate is moving with Japan, and. now points south having quakes as compensation for the original Japanese movement. Here is a very interesting explanation and graphics spelling out the case for a West Coast event.

    4/15/16 Major Earthquakes Strikes Japan

    • Fortunately, that’s not how plate tectonics work. 🙂

      Big earthquakes can cause further earthquakes (we’ve even seen that in Japan this week), but generally only within a few hundred miles of the original epicenter. There is no known relationship between earthquake activity on opposite sides of the thousands-of-miles-wide Pacific Plate.

      The risk of a major earthquake in California is always pretty high, though, and eventually there will be another one that causes big problems here.

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        Myth buster!!! 🙂 you always chime in when needed to lay down the facts! Thanks!

      • Nate Wire

        The same guy’s website also has page on Chemtrails, HAARP, Weather Control, the creation of tornadoes with microwaves, and the control of earthquakes and volcanoes with VLF/VHF waves. He even has information on “Nexrad Radar Pulses”. I guess that explains a fair amount.

      • tomocean

        That doesn’t necessarily always appear to be the case:

        “Until now, we seismologists have always said, ‘Don’t worry about distant earthquakes triggering local quakes,'” said Roland Burgmann, an earth and planetary scientist at UC Berkeley, in a statement. “This study now says that, while it is very rare — it may only happen every few decades — it is a real possibility if the right kind of earthquake happens.”
        http://www.livescience.com/23481-earthquake-triggers-quakes.html

      • sectionmaker

        eh…spring tides….thats a whole lotta water sloshing around the Pacific bowl….Im always amazed we dont have 6-7s pretty much all the time…perhaps my time scale is just too short :}

    • RandomTreeInSB
      • Nate Wire

        Lol, at least they (National Tsunami Warning Center) still have all caps:

        …THIS IS A TSUNAMI INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR ALASKA/ BRITISH

        COLUMBIA/ WASHINGTON/ OREGON AND CALIFORNIA…

        EVALUATION

        ———-

        * NO TSUNAMI THREAT EXISTS FOR THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE.

        * SOME OF THE AREAS LISTED ABOVE MAY EXPERIENCE NON-DAMAGING

        SEA LEVEL CHANGES.

    • Nate Wire

      Echoing what Daniel said, it’s just not possible for plates to transfer that movement that far. The plates are too pliable for that to happen. The largest earthquake in the Kumamoto series had a maximum slip of 3.5 meters, which simply can’t be transferred across the large distances talked about in this video.

      This is from the USGS:

      “Often, people wonder if an earthquake in Alaska may have triggered an earthquake in California; or if an earthquake in Chile is related to an earthquake that occurred a week later in Mexico. Over long distances, the answer is no. Even the Earth’s rocky crust is not rigid enough to transfer stress efficiently over thousands of miles. There is evidence to suggest that earthquakes in one area can trigger seismic activity within a few hundred miles, including aftershocks clustered near the main shock. There is also evidence that some major earthquakes manage to trigger seismicity over much greater distances (thousands of miles), but these triggered quakes are small and very short lived.”

    • rainingintheLBC

      Just to echo what others have said, there is no scientific basis for this. Regional faults don’t respond to strain released in nearby faults at all times in the first place, and certainly not to slip events that occur thousands of miles away. It’s important to remember that the plate boundaries are complex, and many times stress that is applied to a plate boundary fault is partitioned to crustal blocks and nearby secondary faults. Blocks between major faults also exhibit simple deformation, which relieves strain accumulation(decreases slip necessary on say, the San Andreas Fault). The style of deformation/faulting is also important, since sometimes slip occurs below the seismogenic zone, where ductile deformation occurs instead of brittle deformation. This is a complicated issue that can’t be generalized for the entire earth, but most evidence suggests earthquakes don’t transmit stress across entire plate lengths.

    • inclinejj

      Mammoth Lakes, the Reno area, and Fremont/San Ramon areas have had earthquake swarms, and nothing too big. If anything these swarms just release pressure on the faults.

  • Charlie B

    We do live a beautiful part of the world. Not sure I would want to live anywhere else.

    • SBMWill

      Enjoy it won’t be the same in the next few decades better or worse who knows?

    • StefanoR99

      I’m lucky to have moved to the bay area from the UK and couldn’t agree more. Only place that I’d consider over Norcal is Italy.

  • Sokafriend

    On another note, we had fun under the bright white moonlight finding planets, constellations and anxiously scanning for the International Space Station which we did catch as it sped over us for NNW to NE for 3 minutes tonight.
    Spot the station: https://spotthestation.nasa.gov/

  • Sokafriend

    Raining, too, in Guayaquil, Ecuador, apparently hardest hit by 7.4- death toll now at 44, also felt in neighboring Columbia and Peru. Is our vacationer back?

    • inclinejj

      The earthquake in Ecuador, was just upgraded to 7.7!!

      • Sokafriend

        Man it’s bad. I saw that. Pedarnales was flattened- 40,000 there now homeless, Guayaquil pretty wrecked, not much word on the other towns and communities along the coast and just inland. As a mayor of one of the towns said- We are trying to do something but we can’t do anything… I think they finally got a tractor out to try to deal with some mound of collapsed concrete- that’s the problem- mostly concrete construction, no equipment, only 1500 troops available.. and a substantial area to cover.. Control tower crumbled at nearby airport at Manta. I am so sorry for the tragic loss of life.

  • RandomTreeInSB
    • Dan the Weatherman

      That map almost looks as though it is showing a tropical disturbance from the Gulf striking the Houston area and moving inland.

      • The Rockets curse?

        • inclinejj

          The curse of Beverly!

        • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

          Remember there were epic rains last year for the Wester Conf finals fans and some players spent the night at the arena.

          • matt (truckee)

            No worries – WCF will definitely NOT be in Houston this year!

    • Daniel Johnson

      It looks shaped like a dagger. I have to say for a southern plains Atmospheric river event this rainfall model does look….odd.

    • Whoa!

    • Black Cat

      Looks like banana belt.

    • BobKatopolis

      Looks like a demon sticking his tongue out!

  • Thunderstorm

    I’ve posted about the dreaded v shape before to the amusement of some uneducated. We’ll it’s over Texas tonight on the visible!

    • Nate Wire

      That reminds me of this video. Is it the same thing?

  • Black Cat

    Its hot! I want to go the beach!

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    It’s a horrible day outside. Can I hear some of that rain from the Southern plains?

  • Black Cat

    It would be nice to have pop up thunderstorms to cool us off.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      We actually can can Santa Ana winds with thunderstorms rarely

  • Sokafriend

    It’s noon and all SD area stations are reporting temps in excess of forecast, so far by 4-5 degrees, ranging from 79 Imperial Beach to 84 at Brown Field. Some reporting up to 17 MPH gusts at Brown with super dry 17% humidity..

    • Wet Line(San Diego)

      Wind is blowing like crazy in Eastern Chula Vista. Very warm, with steady winds and some gusts that are making a mess of the yard. I would not be surprised if it gets close to 90 degrees. Tough on the allergies as well. These Spring wind events are not enjoyable.

      • SoSoCal

        Hit a MTB ride from 8:00am to 10:00pm. Conditions just about perfect but temps were climbing quickly. Glad we have so many partially shades canyons around here 🙂

    • Sokafriend

      Now 2:00 PM, beach holding at 78.7 but inland has heated up considerably around SD county, no winds around here next to Bonita, nearby temps running between 84-89 degrees, humidity down to 12-14, dew point around 36. Bright hot sun shining on us.

    • Andrew Valiunas

      borderline red flag fire danger!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    86F at 1:00PM. I actually enjoying it. (kind of)

  • Dan the Weatherman

    The Santa Ana winds have been blowing here in Orange all morning and it is quite warm with current temps in the upper 80’s. It is actually windier here than it was yesterday. The wind only blew in the early to mid morning hours yesterday before diminishing and turning somewhat onshore in the afternoon.

  • River Man

    Just another one of many miserable days ahead. Life sucks.

    • StormHiker

      Ventura County…great place to escape sunny weather.

      • Chatman

        Fortunate to be living in Ventura County. No place like it in the country. The annual range in temperature is between 70 °F and 80 °F on the coastal plain. Growing up here the temp rarely peaks 80 but usually stays around 70 and cooler. 78 °F at Hollywood Beach is a heatwave for us locals! Ocean winds come in mostly from the west and keeps the air clean of smog and lingering heat…but today..Santa Ana winds rule the day…

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    95.3ºF here currently in Camarillo, with a dew point of 30ºF. Bone dry and moderate Santa Ana’s from time to time. Bleh.

  • inclinejj

    81.9 in Pacifica. Not even the hottest part of the day yet. Plus there has been a breeze on and off.

    • Pacifica weather observer

      I had 86.2 at my house at 1:50 p.m. .

      • inclinejj

        Oh wow, I had a breeze almost all day. Except for right now!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Topped out at 90.1F in Santa Barbara. I think that’s the first time this year.

  • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

    Here it is currently 85 and winds have reversed and blowing from WSW. Still bright and clear and low humidity. This area has typical canyon wind which all things being equal (lack of weather) blows downhill at night and uphill in the later morning though afternoon. It may reverse and blow offshore again tonight (or not) but at least indicates the offshore flow is weakening.

    • Sokafriend

      We had a few hours of light winds, gusts this morning but it is calm now and 90 degrees near Otay Lakes. The winds were somewhat like yours, in that they shifted around notably within just a few miles.

  • AlTahoe

    Amazing day in Tahoe today. Currently 66F outside.
    Managed to go disc golfing, get some laps in at heavenly, and just finished up a quick mountain bike lap at Tahoe mountain.

    • Been getting in some mtn bike riding, gardening and just fun stuff outdoors. 92 today. Hills turning brown but the shaded and oak studded north facing are gorgeous in contrast.

      • Pfirman

        Happy birthday. I hope I am able to still do all that when I am your age.

    • Crouching Dallas

      This post pretty much typifies the Californian dream – total outdoor decadence. I went disc golfing yesterday at Oak Grove in Pasadena, which was great on its own…can’t imagine that + mountain biking AND turns! Like I said, decadence.

      Also, this post is further encouragement for me to pick up mountain biking, so thanks for that!

  • Thunderstorm

    Time to shake things up on this blog. Or as Elvis said “whole lot of shaking going on”. Actually continuous non stop shaking going on through out the United States today. Thats right NON-STOP. Found that hard to believe but USGS confirms. We don’t feel it but it’s happening. Out of 51 quakes today ( the largest recorded worldwide) 10 were in Alaska. So whats causing it? Some say it is planet X or Nibiru. Cal tech astronomers think it exist and is coming in an elliptical orbit. 12 billion miles out and about 10 times the diameter of the earth. Will pick up speed as gravity of the sun pulls it in faster and faster. How fast is it moving now no one has an answer that I could find. Something seems amiss though. Should be interesting in the months ahead indeed.

    • Nate Wire

      No, please no. These “non-stop quakes throughout the United States” are not happening, and Nibiru is a myth. If the “Caltech Astronomers” that you’re talking about are Mike Brown and his team, yes, they have found indirect evidence that COULD mean a 9th planet, but there have been NO direct observations yet of that planet yet. Even with that, there is absolutely no way an object of that size and that distance away could effect earthquakes. Jupiter is many, many times closer and 317 times the mass of earth (along with 11x the diameter), and even it does not effect earthquake patterns. Let’s keep this blog scientific and not descend into conspiracy nonsense. Concerning the earthquakes, “The largest recorded worldwide” is simply not true. I’m sure that there have been days with more than 51 earthquakes of magnitude 2.5+, and if you would like me to, I’ll gladly find evidence that contradicts that. And regarding the earthquakes in Alaska, they’re tiny! 10 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or less in Alaska is nothing short of unremarkable. Take a look at this seismogram from Mammoth Mountain. All I can see are a couple of small quakes and some background noise. Now, look at this map of all of the quakes in the US today. Keep in mind, the USGS record earthquakes down to NEGATIVE magnitudes, so if there’s non-stop shaking going on, it will be on the map. There is weird going on with the number of earthquakes in the US. There has been no extreme earthquake rate spike in the US, and if anything, there has been a small (but insignificant) decrease in the past month. If there was non-stop shaking, we would certainly see it on both the maps and seismograms. Where is the USGS saying anything about this non-stop shaking happening?

      From Phil Plait’s (of Slate’s Bad Astronomy Blog) website about Nibiru:

      http://www.badastronomy.com/bad/misc/planetx/nutshell.html

      Here’s Mike Brown’s Planet 9 blog:

      http://www.findplanetnine.com

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Is there some kind of GFS style spaghetti plots to track the potential course of this planet X you’re claiming to exist?

    • I guess you shook things up a bit.

    • StormHiker

      Please leave. Planet X is waiting for you.

      • DelMarSD

        Lol.

      • Flunking_retirement

        O my! Can I put ma bullet in now, Andy !?

    • Charlie B

      I think I saw a Stones tribute band at Planet X a few years back.

    • Bartshe

      Tax time drives many to drink.

    • jstrahl

      FWIW, wasn’t it Jerry Lee Lewis who said that, not Elvis?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        You’re correct, unless Elvis did a cover version that I am not aware of.

    • In California, we have quakes every day. We are all waiting for the next big one…please try something else.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Drastic changes coming Thurs/Fri/Sat if the EC comes to fruition. Looking to see which LT model works out for us down here in parched SoCal. Temps hit 92 degrees here today and I’m hoping it will be down in the 60’s by Thursday. Just can’t handle the 90’s in mid-April.

    Here’s an excerpt:

    .LONG TERM…(THU-SUN)

    There is some uncertainty in the timing of this second system due to differences in the models, however it looks like there will be at least a slight chance of rain for most of the area sometime between late Thursday and Saturday. For areas south of Pt. Conception, rain should hold off until Friday Saturday. At this point, it doesn`t look like a big rain producer, but there could be some decent rain for most of the area if the wetter ECMWF works out.

    • DelMarSD

      92 degrees. Wow. Go EC!

  • Bartshe

    MISSING SINCE 2012: over 3 years worth of snowpack in the Southern Sierra Nevada.

    GOOD NEWS: only 2.5 total years missing in the Central Sierra (because it’s nice to end on a positive note).

    (Math like this is why Daddy drinks)

  • Duane

    Spent the night at Nira campground. Temp was 35 when I woke up. Temp hit 90 through Thousand Oaks on my way home.

    • Duane

      (Nira is in Santa Barbara county)

      • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

        Nice. Love it back there. I think Los Padres NF riparian canyons are my favorite places on Earth to visit…

    • Scott Turner

      Same here. Low 30’s at Palomar and high of 90 in Vista

  • Black Cat

    Dew points are dry in the 30’s and low 40’s.

  • Black Cat

    The high at the Santa Maria Airport was a toasty 87 degrees!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      I hit 86 on San Marcos pass today, but the low RH made it nice…sea breeze should kick in on Monday night.

  • Black Cat

    Wish we have cicadas during these hot days.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      It would be a nice peaceful sound to hear during a summer evening, as compared to the crazy mockingbirds who sang all day n night late last spring and summer. Hope it doesn’t happen this year cuz they drove me nuts!

  • Fairweathercactus

    I was in hell downtown LA again today. The breeze combined with the heat was mad stupid. I have nice dry elbows and bleeding lips being outside all day.

    • Pfirman

      Stop kissing the cactus. Give thanks for the breeze.

  • I’m hopeless. Just put La Niña google alerts on my email.

    • Pfirman

      You will get a lot of porn, most likely.

  • MoonWatcher

    Beautiful, clear, breezy evening in South Redondo. The Moon and Jupiter are right next to each other!

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Warm, dry, and a little windy today in Van Nuys.. Winds are not too bad, with just 20-30 mph gusts at times, but mostly breezy. High today was 92 and the predicted high was for 88. I was saw fire today somewhere near the Home Dept in Panorama city, lots of black smoke and I was in the Home Depot for about 30 minutes and when I came out there was still black smoke coming up and a lot of smoke in the air even down Van nuys Blvd to the south.. Also took some pics of some wind damage in my neighborhood.. The wind damage was from mostly from Thursday night through Friday afternoon.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    The GFS 00z is coming more in line with the ECMWF regarding the system poised to bring rain to California at the end of next week. It now brings the low (while weaker than the EC) into central CA spreading light Precip as far south as SoCal and mountain snow to mostly the central and northern Sierra.

    The Euro has a more robust system digging south into central CA as well, but with more cold air and moisture, wth ofc more mountain snow.. As well as possibly moderate Precip south of Pt. conception. More rain will fall either way up in central and NorCal, but at least SoCal will get something out of this next storm, if the forecast even verifies..

    Here’s the comparisons between the 00z GFS and the 12z ECMWF. they are in agreement now of where the low will move inland, but disagree in strength.. The Euro also looks better in the LR.

  • Nate Wire

    Regarding all the earthquake talk, Dr. Lucy Jones, formerly of the USGS, has some explanations about these recent quakes on her twitter (@DrLucyJones).

    • Also, people watch too many B-grade sci-fi movies..

      • xeren

        no one can tell me that lava tarantula isn’t coming for me one day.

  • hermit crab

    Where I am in Carpinteria hit 95.4 today. Do we really have a chance of rain on Friday? Seems every day is a different season.

  • Black Cat

    Another hot day today, but rain on Friday?

    • Martin (Santee)

      possibility for socal.

      NWS San Diego:

      .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)…
      ONSHORE FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FOR THURSDAY BRINGING GREATER INLAND COOLING AND GUSTY WEST WINDS FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL DEEPEN A LITTLE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING…SUFFICIENT FOR LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD INTO THE
      FAR WESTERN VALLEYS. MUCH GREATER DEEPENING IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE FIRST OF A PAIR OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACHES THE CALIFORNIA COAST WITH STRATUS SPREADING ONTO THE LOWER COASTAL MOUNTAIN SLOPES. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY. A SECOND AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INLAND THROUGH CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODEL SPREAD HAS DECREASED SOME IN THE
      PAST 24 HOURS FOR THE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PERIOD WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT ECMWF STILL FAVORED.

  • DelMarSD

    New GFS looks much more in line with the more consistent (and much wetter) EC, showing significant precipitation for So Cal Friday and Saturday. Hoping this trend continues.

    • Bartshe

      with ya

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Yeah, need to break loose of the inside slider trend that’s been happening with these Lows from the nw lately..

    • SoSoCal

      That’s some nice looking eye candy! Stoked that GFS is trending towards the EC. Looks like some solid spring rain atm!

    • EC me more happy

    • William_LeGro

      What I’ve seen on non-professional sites (i.e., weather.com) is raising the chance of rain on Friday from 20% to 30%, and 10% on Saturday. I so hope that’s wrong, in a good way.

  • Osse (Redondo)

    I’d like more rain, but on the bright side, I’m glad we didn’t get something like this: “Parts of southeastern Texas have reported up to 16 inches of rainfall, drenching the region at a rate of 4 inches per hour at the storm’s peak. The National Weather Service extended flash flood warnings until 1 p.m. local time. “

    • click

      I was just watching on periscope someone who rode their bike out I to the 10/45 interchange in Houston to show the flooding. Freeways are closed, parts underwater and the guy said the water was about 30 feet vertical over its banks.
      Cool to see it live like that.

  • weathergeek100

    Wow you guys, look at some of these rainfall totals in Houston- 4″ in one hour at 1:53 AM then another 3″ in one hour at 4:53 AM. Incredible! http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIAH.html

  • gray whale

    Despite suffering some weather blog burnout, I have an announcement to make… I found Godzilla! He was trying to sneak across the plains unnoticed two days ago. He looks like some sort of hybrid T-Rex / Diplodocus terrorizer. I thought the blog needed to know.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I had this wild dream last night that a weak cutoff low moved over the area in May and brought a severe thunderstorm to the other side of where I live. All I got was a few drops and I tried to get closer to it but it was moving to fast away from where I was at and got weaker. It was moving in a North West North direction quite.

    • inclinejj

      My wild dreams are mostly x, xx, and xxx rated!

  • Bombillo1

    Re the discussion here about earthquakes being related across the Pacific. Here is a short blurb by Paul Caruso of the USGS. It appears that the jury is still out on this issue.

    1. Are the Ecuador and Japan earthquakes related?
    It’s way too early to tell, said Paul Caruso, a geophysicist with the U.S. Geological Survey.
    “It’s one day after the Ecuador earthquake and two days after the Japanese earthquake, so no real research has been done on these quakes as far as they’re being connected,” he said Sunday.

    “Usually we don’t think earthquake are connected across the ocean,” Caruso said, but there’s ongoing research in “remote triggering,” the idea that a big quake can cause another quake a long distance away.
    The distance between Japan and Ecuador: 15,445 kilometers, or about 9,590 miles.

    • Is there a record of say for example magnitude >6 with dates and locations around Pacific Rim.

      • meteoguy

        Here is a general map of earthquakes around the globe. Click on “New – Quakes Map:” There was a 4.9 in Ecuador 14 minutes ago. http://quakes.globalincidentmap.com/

      • Nate Wire

        Yes, this USGS site is a great source!

        http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/

        This is probably the most reliable source out there, and it is searchable for all times, locations, and magnitudes.

        • William_LeGro

          Great site indeed! And showing tectonic plates too.

        • WanderingTattler

          It does appear that the “Ring of Fire” Pacific Rim is the most active earthquake area. Possibly it is just a coincidence that an earthquake occurs on one side of the Pacific followed by another across the ocean along the Pacific. One would think that if there were a long distance connection, the likelihood of a medium distance connection would be higher.

    • alanstorm

      The science keeps scoffing “no no no”, but we’ve seen these come in clusters every few years. Its hard to study something as huge & capricious as plate tectonics, its like studying a pile of boulders: pull out one pebble & the whole pile goes

    • inclinejj

      I also hear full reservoirs and lakes put too much weight pressure on fault lines. Being that earthquakes are typically miles deep in the earth. I wouldn’t put too much into this theory.

    • rainingintheLBC

      The evidence is against this theory right now. It is likely due to statistical chance.

    • William_LeGro

      The one that concerns me is the eventual Cascadia quake – on the subduction zone that runs from Cape Mendocino to Vancouver Island, where the Juan de Fuca plate is sliding under the North American plate, creating the Klamath Mts. and the Cascades. But the NA plate is stuck. if just the southern portion gives way, it would produce The Big One, 8- 8.6 (by comparison, the San Andreas can max out at 8.2, 6% as strong as the 9.0 in Japan in 2011). If the full zone goes, it’s The Very Big One, 8.7-9.2, making the cities unrecognizable, and with an accompanying tsunami 700 miles long that will hit the West Coast and Japan, among other places. The chances of the Big One happening in the next 50 years is 1 in 3; The Very Big One is 1 in 10. The science behind this forecast is strong.

      IOW, I really hope earthquakes in Japan can’t trigger earthquakes in North America. If the 2011 Japan quake didn’t trigger one here, then it’s likely that kind of thing doesn’t happen. Right? Right?

  • William_LeGro

    Heading for 90º today and lots of desert sun. Meanwhile, “Houston Submerged by Two Feet of Rain Overnight” – not only is the weather unfair, it’s as contrary as a teenager.

    But also this: “April 2016 El Niño/La Niña update: What goes up…”
    https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/april-2016-el-ni%C3%B1ola-ni%C3%B1a-update-what-goes-%E2%80%A6

    My apologies if all this has been posted already. Haven’t been able to read much here lately – taxes. Now have to go get in line at the P.O.

    • click

      Interesting to see the spacial layout is similar to what we saw with El Niño this past winter; 1+2 less of an anomaly, the core further west than typical, and the cool anomaly extending well past the date line.
      Plays well into the thought that “all bets are off” as to normal La Niña behavior.

      • William_LeGro

        Yes – I’ve thought for a while, ever since El Nino started not doing what we thought/hoped he was going to do – that we had no reason to expect his sister would behave any better. Like maybe she would bring rain instead of drought.

        Of course, it would be just like the weather to have La Nina do what’s expected, just to rub it in that climate is changing and global warming is turning everything upside down.

        In fact, the only thing we can trust anymore is that the planet is indeed heating up – we can’t even trust the planet to warm gradually enough for us to get our politics in order so we can adapt to more drought, more radical storms, and rising sea levels.

        I mean, think how long it will take Congress to vote to move New York City inland!

  • alanstorm

    We have 70% for Friday here in Mendocino Co, with GFS showing cute little low bringing greens as far south as Monterey.
    Geez. April has more GOA lows then Feb, & that during a record ElNino. Go figure.
    The mosquitos are LOVIN IT

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    12Z GFS looks a little wetter then the 06Z run regarding the system later this week.

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      Good. We might just get our wish.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    Perfect weather for wasps. I hate those evil bugs.

  • ECMWF is showing a weakening ridge after Day 10 or so.

  • inclinejj

    Pacifica 80.9 degrees 2:10 pm!

  • inclinejj

    90% chance of 3’s raining down at Oracle aka (Roaracle) Tonight!!

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      With or without Curry.

      • inclinejj

        Either or. I’m on Bart headed to the game!

  • 90 right now. Hurry up Friday.

    • Martin (Santee)

      no kidding! 92 here yuck!

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      88 here. I wish this warming would end now. 🙁

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I sure don’t want to be outside today until it starts raining. High heat and swarming wasps outside are a bad combo.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Sorry I know this is unrelated to California’s weather, but I’m sure the entire USA and beyond is keeping an eye on what’s happening in Texas right now.. Absolutely brutal. Just wanted to post an image of this tornado warned super cell in with a storm top of 51,000 ft+!! (I’m sure there is an overshooting top because of the strong updrafts.. Must be a lot of big hail with this supercell to). Lots of lighting and 60 DBZ+ rainfall.

    • DelMarSD

      Yeah, it’s crazy.

      • inclinejj

        Actually people were hoping this el Nino would bring us 200% to 300% of normal rainfall. That would have caused flooding of biblical proportions.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I was really hoping that Los Angeles would receive between 20″ and 30″ of rain with this El Nino as opposed to the paltry less than 10″ that has fallen this season to date. Many La Nina years have brought higher totals to L.A. than this season has believe it or not!

    • Sunchaser

      I was reading on the tweeter feed that up to 16” of rain hit the Houston area omfg I can even imagine what that must be like to have in a 24 hr period. I’ve experienced over 8.55” in Oahu in Dec. 92 and that in itself was a real experience but that’s a tropical island so imagine what that must have been like in Houston….God only knows what would happen if that were to occur ever here in Los Angeles……

    • jstrahl

      240 million gallons of water has fallen over the Houston area. 5 dead, lots of stuff disrupted, amazing photo from the U of Houston campus.
      http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/18/us/houston-texas-flooding/index.html

      • Dan the Weatherman

        I wish there were a way to pipe all of this excess water into our reservoirs that are low due to the lack of rain, especially those in the central and southern portions of CA.

  • Black Cat

    Temps spike to 88 degrees in Santa Maria!

    • William_LeGro

      same here in LA – shoots! thought it was gonna hit 90!

  • DelMarSD

    Love what the 18z GFS is showing 4 days out.

    • Yeah it looks like it should of looked a few months ago! 🙂

      • Dan the Weatherman

        We are really overdue for a good rainy spell!

  • DelMarSD

    Texas is in trouble if the rest of the spring is anything like last. Long range models do not look good for the already soaked state.

    • inclinejj

      Most of Texas doesn’t have storm drains, sidewalks, and gutters. The new area and subdivisions do, but the older parts of town don’t.

  • Here’s a couple of things to ponder at least short-term.
    SOI average for last 25 days ~ -16
    Some “El Nino~ish” upper wind anomalies
    MJO signal pretty dead
    Some convection going on along the EQ east of dateline
    All four may have a wee bit to do with why the current base state is +ENSO even with surface currents and SST’s heading into Tom-Boy-Tina La Nina.
    I can’t say if the above has anything to do with any weather upcoming Wx forecast.
    I won’t litter the board with graphics, just take my word for it.

    • DelMarSD

      Interesting.

    • 82/83 El Nino Baby

      So basically, everything we wanted to happen from Jan-mar is happening in mid April setup wise?

      • Not from the above but what things may look like in a few days…yes.(I’m littering)

      • Actually setup wise in a way yes just without THE BEAST. I should have made myself clearer

        • 82/83 El Nino Baby

          Agreed. The setup without the gas. And the wrong time of year.

        • Phil(ontario)

          so does this play into the theory that el nino was too big this year? took too long to start to decay?

          • If you look at just SSTA in Nino 3.4 then the answer is no it wasn’t too big. It is falling apart pretty quick. Presently there isn’t the ridging that was plaguing Central/SoCal, but it’s late April and too late for anything meaningful this year. The pattern looks El Nino like but like “82/83 El Nino Baby” put it best…we’re outta gas that was fueling a strong STJ and deep GOA low.

            IMO The problem with THE BEAST and CA rain might have been due to the extended and very strong destructive interference to the base state (base state is +/- or neutral ENSO) for about six weeks in Oct-Nov. At that time, the Indian Ocean had a huge hurricane that went up into the Arabian Sea and then more rain in the Bay of Bengal and through the Indonesian Archipelago. Australia had much better rainfall than expected, too.

            This long event kind of left THE BEAST in neutral and then the MJO continued to stay active with convection as it traversed the Equator. So with the MJO being active there were periods of constructive and destructive interference all winter. Which in itself is not uncommon at all for all El Nino’s. This year is just was in overdrive with +amplitude in destructive interference phases especially in February.

            Another thing may be that the entire NP was too warm. The pattern this winter in the NP was very anomalous when compared to the last 20 El Nino’s. …ALL of them not just the big ones. The SSTA pattern in the NP may have had something to do with the persistent ridging that threw everything including the kitchen sink into the Pacific NW.

            Bottom line is one or none or all of these contributed to the ridging. It is ALL ABOUT THE ATMOSPHERE and not just a small rectangle with arbitrary boundaries that are measured in 1/100’s of a degree C. along the EQ in the EPAC. I have other notion, but being an enthusiast without any education in weather take it all with a grain of salt. I worship rain. That’s how I found this blog over two years ago. :-)))

          • Phil(ontario)

            Thanks for the outstanding write up. I heard about the Indian Ocean which explains the cold dry December we had in SoCal. I guess the effects lingered the rest of the winter. Also the warm NP could be why the Baja ridge was further north than normal this year.
            Basically we had a bunch of unforeseen separate anomalies all come together at once to defeat The Beast and leave us with a winter long fall like pattern.

          • gray whale

            those two questions aren’t necessarily, or likely to be, related. i wouldn’t know how to answer the first, but the second is probably true. in an overly simplified sense, the decay itself is the “gas” that the other posters mention below.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Feels nice outside quite warm! 90 degree weather never bothered me, it’s quite pleasant actually even 100 degrees ain’t so bad, but when it gets 105-110+ that is what I consider HOT! Enjoying this spring weather! The only kind of weather I like more is cloudy rainy weather!

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I actually do like to see some warm to hot weather like this from time to time, especially after a long period of wetter weather. However, I don’t like repeated hot spells and dry weather during the rainy season when we don’t get much rain like it has been during the heart of winter since 2014.

  • hermit crab

    This heat hater glared at the tv when the weatherman praised today’s 88 degree weather. Of course, he’s dressed in a suit, in air conditioning.

  • Randy Finch

    60% chance this morning for showers on Friday is down to 20%. 805 Ventura County..

  • mattzweck

    here in the high desert Lancaster area it was about 85 degrees. and really dry
    13 percent humidity. looks like it might be a hot summer this year. my dad almost has the new swamp cooler running.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Very dry, clocking in at only 8% humidity ATM.. Just put on Chapstick because my lips are already feeling dry. Warm today with clear skies. Next chance of rain for SoCal looks like the Friday/Saturday timeframe.. Still differences in strength between the Euro and the GFS, but there is general agreement that rain will spread as far south as SoCal.. Looks like a true, April-Showers-kind-of-storm. Too early to discuss rainfall amounts, but at least we got something coming to California.. Potentially more storms to come per the ECMWF to California the following week.. Been a pretty cool spring so far. Very diverse.

    • MoonWatcher

      Kinda like “affirmative action of weather.”

    • Dan the Weatherman

      We need to add to the diversity by getting some decent late season rains in Socal as opposed to the type of systems that we have seen lately that skip the coastal regions and dump on the mountain and desert regions.

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        I whole heartedly agree! ?? we really do need a late season soaker! I think there will be a couple more storms in store for SoCal before the season wraps up, like I said.. Hoping that we will get some soaking rains before the summer’s here!! ? And an epic monsoon season!! ?

      • 961ElNino

        Yes why is Orange County so hated this winter? Although I can’t deny I’m enjoying laying by the pool today in this 80 degree heat ?

    • Martin (Santee)

      I remember a couple of weeks ago, when some were saying that the rain was over and you came back and predicted that all of cali would get at least one more storm, and here we go. Great job, great attitude! Keep it up!!

  • Bombillo1

    Seattle hit 88 degrees today. Portland 86. Seattle beat the all time high for the entire month of April by 3 degrees (previous record high was 85). 25 days into the Spring equinox and the roast is on.

    • inclinejj

      They deserve it. They got dumped on this winter.

    • Charlie B

      I was in Seattle in 1984 when it hit 85 in April. Odd sight. Skin that had been hidden for 8 months was suddenly exposed, oftentimes in rather alarming fashion. Caution was discarded and everyone waddled to the nearest open space to gaze with wild wonder at the strange orb floating in the sky. The scene was mello and almost had a mediative quality about it. It rained for the next week.

      • inclinejj

        My sister lived in Seattle for 8 months and she was x’n the days off the calendar. One of my buddies I grew up with just moved back down to the Bay Area. Glen, you know him too.

    • jakobdrafter

      We are visiting Seattle right now, from SoCal. We came up here to get away from the damn sun and heat! Everyone here keeps telling us how “lucky” we are to have this great weather, while immediately turning around and complaining about the heat.

      • Pfirman

        I’ll take 89 down here in the lower Sacramento Valley, known for its heat, than 89 in Seattle. I have been in those temps in Seattle and really suffered compared to here. Not sure why. Humidity? Latitude? Expectations? Attitude?

  • FolsomPrisonBlues

    Bastardi is calling for a nice trough for the entire west coast starting later this week and continuing on toward the end of April!

  • Barney

    Everyone make sure to apply their SPF 50 and put on turtlenecks.

    Shaka.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Shaka needs to bring the dump (in the form of an intact cold core low) to Mammoth this weekend.

      • inclinejj

        I hope so we are planning on going down to Mammoth for a long weekend.

    • inclinejj

      Maybe you can awaken your buddy, the bobble head man on Wednesday, April 20th aka 4-20

  • weathergeek100

    For anyone getting excited for rain this weekend, just be aware- another cutoff low. I have zero confidence in the models after what happened a couple weeks ago. I do not trust them at all. I’m going down to LA this weekend. It may rain, it may not but what I’m happy about is that there likely won’t be any Santa Ana winds at least.

  • Jason

    The Omega block was a disaster nationwide. At the 10 am start of Boston Marathon yesterday, it was 71 degrees. (They had predicted a warm but still manageable 61 with partly cloudy skies at that hour). Soaring temps in the 70s with not a single cloud lasted until we hit the Boston city limits, where we were finally greeted by a seabreeze. But by that time most of us were toast. The cold front came through but only about 8 hours too late.

    Meanwhile, on Saturday, Lake Merced in San Francisco’s fog belt just next to the Pacific soared to sound 80. My running buddies doing 62 miles wilted in the heat.

    But hey, let’s all celebrate because we had “beautiful”, “picture perfect”, “gorgeous” weather.

    • inclinejj

      Agreed it was way way too hot way too early!

    • TahoeMt

      Im celebrating. This weather in the Sierra is amazing. It s finally warm enough to go outside with a T shirt and shorts and actually feel comfortable. Almost all the snow is melted at Lake level and everything is turning green. I know we could use more precipitation, but this weekend means back to sweaters and jeans. yuk!

      • Charlie B

        That is a good attitude. If complaining would help I would complain. Since it doesn’t I don’t.

  • low snow levels

    him long ways out but i see the 570 line looks like by early may we could be looking at mid too upper 90s to low 100s

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      Ugh, looks like a forecast from Hell.

  • 240hr 00Z ECMWF looks very good for Pt Conception north. South of Pt Conception is good. I think the 12Z GFS will get back in line but it’s propagating now.. The 00Z GFS…stunk. 12Z Euro will update later.

    • Patrick McGuire

      12Z GFS today is showing essentially what it had been showing with the exception of the past few runs where it showed the system hitting Central CA and basically spreading out through the whole state and falling apart. Now it is looking like a decent system again to hit Central and norcal with some good precip. If only this run will continue and come to fruition…..

  • SoCalWXwatcher

    NWS Oxnard’s morning AFD mentioning the models indicating a rather unfortunate (for SoCal) Northward shift of the next system, but they remain cautious. Hopefully the next run of the ECMWF will look better. C’mon, let’s all do our part – wash & wax those cars, and leave their windows rolled down later this week!

    ”The one notable change in the models today is a distinct shift to the north with the next trough coming in Friday. We`ve already seen this shift once with this particular system late last week but the fact that we`re seeing it this close to the arrival means confidence is a bit higher it will stay north. Still, don`t want to pull back too much on pops yet on just one set of models but may trim back 10-20 percent pending the EC solution later on this morning.”

    • Sumster

      Whats new the models do this every time. What a joke they are so predictable.

    • thlnk3r

      Thanks for the update SoCalWXwatcher.

      The one general theme that I’ve gathered from the models is….cooler weather ;). Looking forward to it!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I’ll take it over an April heat wave any time. :-). You never know, if this system cuts off, anything can happen. Some rain would be a pleasant surprise, but not expecting it.

        • thlnk3r

          Agreed 😉

          Oddly enough I’m looking forward to June gloom (foggy mornings, afternoon sunshine) with temps in the 80’s.

    • 12Z yes some, but not like ‘oh sh^t here we go again’
      Lucy is a real bitch though.
      If LOX made a Lucy reference in their AFD’s…that would be a real treat!

      • SoCalWXwatcher

        I can see it now – an Oxnard AFD quip regarding Lucy and her Mop. LOL.

        Yep, 12z ECMWF isn’t quite as far North as the GFS. I wouldn’t be surprised for the projected track to bounce around over the next few runs. At least the Sierra will get a shot at collecting more rain/snow either way.

    • Just like every other storm system I can remember. Fantastic.

    • weathergeek100

      Such an unusual trend by the models! (sarcasm)

  • Nathan
    • AlTahoe

      I am kinda hoping for a more northward track. Since Feb 1st we are at 30% of normal snowfall for South Lake Tahoe. The Sierra is down to 67% or normal snowpack as of April 15th (Southern Sierra at 45%!). Strong El Nino years usually bring heavy spring time storms but of course this year has been the exact opposite with non stop record high temps.
      Seems like winter ends a month or two earlier then it used to the last 5 winters.

      • Pfirman

        What is this winter you speak of?

    • Crouching Dallas
      • Nathan

        ..

        • Crouching Dallas

          !!!!!!!!

  • tomocean

    We’re on a world-wide record breaking hot streak! Somehow, I don’t think that means we are “winning”.

    http://news.discovery.com/earth/global-warming/earth-sees-11-record-hot-months-in-a-row-160419.htm

    • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

      We are losing the battle against global warming, basically. 🙁

    • Bartshe

      been losing the struggle for at least ten years, but finally the deniers are increasingly denying they ever denied.

      • Pfirman

        I see a pattern there, heh. I like the way you put that.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    Another day in Hell today in SMV. When will this end?

    We’d be lucky if we get a sprinkle at this rate. This air mass is going to suck the storm energy out of SoCal.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Know how you feel Nick. Already 88 degrees at 11:45am! Yesterday it reached 91, and Sunday it was 92. I’m ready for May “gray” and June “gloom”.

  • inclinejj

    This explains Spring In Tahoe Perfectly:

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Several years ago Apline and Sunnyside use to host a ski/ski day, you’d start the day skiing at Alpine then head to Sunnyside to ski on Tahoe behind a Nautique. Not sure they still host it anymore, always sounded fun.

      • inclinejj

        Several years ago. I remember saying oh shit lift tickets just hit 30 bucks a piece!

  • Fairweathercactus

    Already warmer than predicted today 92 in Whittier. Great news as I watered the cactus yesterday.

  • inclinejj

    75.6 today with overcast and no breeze and way more humid.

    Someone please, Wake me up when September ends!!

    • thlnk3r

      Nice temps. Currently 95F with 15% humidity. Very summer like out here (So Cal, Inland Empire).

  • honzik

    It’s always dangerous to speculate, but maybe someone can help me out here. I’m noticing that a plume of moisture off the the west and presumably being dragged along with the jet stream looks like it might dip below the cutoff low just off the coast. Is that possible?

    http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/epac/anim/latest72hrs.gif

    • That’s gonna try to rain for us late this week

      • honzik

        It seems to me that we may get more rain than expected, but the looks of it…

        • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

          I hope you’re right. I’d rather get drenched with showers than get burned by the evil sun.

        • You’re up in Humboldt?

          • honzik

            I’m up in the Santa Cruz Mountains, near the Santa Clara/Santa Cruz county border. I’m rooting for some rain through May (if I can get it). It helps the orchard and the well.

          • As soon as I typed and posted Humboldt…I remembered you’re in SC Mtns.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    I really like what the ECMWF is trying to bring to CA next week around the Thursday timeframe.. Looking more bullish with each new run and is a widespread Precip event for the entire state.
    Go Euro!

    • I don’t see more than 1/4″ for you through the weekend. Am I missing something? Oh, I forgot…I’ve lost it. :-))
      Edit: and maybe 1/3″ for the one storm after

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        I would be happy and surprised actually if we pull off a quarter inch thru the weekend here in SoCal tbh.. As for the storm next week, too early to dive into the details, but looks promising ATM for a decent trough to envelop the west coast and bring some form of Precip to all of California.. Ofc SoCal could still get screwed and it will just end up being a NorCal storm, but I doubt the storm for next week will be exclusive to the PAC NW. Could end up as an inside slider for SoCal with moisture limited to the mountains mostly, but the Euro has it dip offshore pretty far south as of right now and trending wetter so that’s good. I might make a bet with you on the storm next week! 😉 maybe we can bet on rainfall amounts over the weekend and see who wins!! Haha ???

        • Those sliders…great for Great Basin and CO. We need one to hang just off the coast and drop anchor and spray SoCal

        • Okay….You’re on! Lemme know!! I’m pumped! I’m not on my phone but the same emoji’s back atcha’ 🙂

        • I bet we won’t even get 0.01.

    • Boots

      Go Euro. The GFS and the NAM are being jerks. I hate those guys sometimes.

    • Nathan

      Uh. Huh.

    • Sumster

      Would love to see it but it won’t happen, Never does. The backpedling will begin soon.

    • DML

      The horse and carrot syndrome at work again, as has been the case the last couple of years.

    • Will eat my shoe if this actually happens. Seems best to go all in against the models whenever they show something like this at this point. I try to stay positive, “Maybe THIS one will actually verify,” but it never does.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    One more day of this miserable heat wave and I’m going to scream. I want rain NOW!!!

    • Pfirman

      You could take a short trip to Houston. Take floaties.

      • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

        I want cold rain, though.

        • Pfirman

          Picky, picky.

          • TruckeeLover

            Just move dude.

  • mattzweck

    Here high desert Lancaster area it’s about 85 degrees out. Onshore breeze still very dry out 15 % humidty and cirrus high clouds streaming by.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Wow…..85 degrees? It reached 93.1 degrees here in El Monte and it’s still 90.7 at 5:10pm! We had some high clouds this am but they cleared out. Onshore breeze not effective as of now, feel like we’re in the “bizarro world”.

  • Here’s some clouds and hills.

    • Clouds have completely filled the sky here.

      • Pfirman

        Sacramento area too. Thankful for the cooling.

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Looks magical

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I would be disappointed if we don’t get any rain Friday. I sure need it badly.

    There’s brush fires already. One at 1-5 near 138.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      You have a better shot at getting measurable rain than points south. We’re sitting at 20% chance here in the LA basin. Unfortunately, even if you get any it will be measured in hundredths according to predictions.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Maybe all my former visions of biblical rains in California this winter were actually visions of next winter! ? ?
    Or there’s the possibility I was just day dreaming.. Either way save your kayaks! Better safe than sorry! 😉

  • DML

    Well, local forecast downgraded again today. Friday’s storm now forecasted to stay north of Santa Barbara, so much for April showers.

    • hermit crab

      I’m shocked! Hoped-for rain not reaching us? When does that ever happen?

  • Bill

    Saw the earlier talk regarding Pacific rim earthquakes. If you haven’t seen this, crank the bass and the volume and wait for March 11th.

    • Sokafriend

      Thanks for this.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Wanted to change the subject a little from our heat and lack of rain. Did you catch the videos of the northern lights (and lightning) from the space station? For those who missed it,

    • Bill

      Northern lights are maybe the most amazing thing I’ve ever seen. Ontario (Canada) and it’s dead of winter, middle of the night. Like -10 F with a couple feet of new snow. Waves of green and purple and blue crossing the sky and turning the snow on the ground the same colors. It was like standing in a kaleidoscope.

    • Pfirman

      Gorgeous but confusing as to whether it is northern or southern. Big title says australis, but top title says borealis. Crazy beautiful either way.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Let the cold tongue begin… LA NIÑA IS BACK BABY.

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Who woulda thought we’d be cheering on a La Niña..? Just goes to show our desperation here in California (especially SoCal). After what this El Niño delivered (or didn’t deliver for that matter) I don’t blame anyone for wanting some big changes across the NPAC.. Hopefully we get a repeat of the 2010-2011 La Niña, but even better! 😉 ??

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        I never really had a problem with La Niña, other than the cold/hot & arid Santa Ana winds in the fall… Those were the days man, walking home from school and all those leaves blowing around and the angle of the sun. Sure did make Halloween and Thanksgiving feel more “normal.” & Let’s not forget those very low snow level systems that would pummel the Sierra Nevada foothills above 700′ elevation.

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          I like a few Santa Ana events like in fall, but this El Niño they have been almost all year….

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            I agree!

      • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

        My money is on a moderate El Niño, but hey now anything is possible. With each passing dry year, a soaker year is inevitable!

        • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

          I like that attitude!! I look at things the same way: “somethings gotta give”. Unfortunately though as Daniel has mentioned: droughts will only worsen in the future, but not at the expense of extremely wet years from time to time (in a nutshell). Now we just have to figure out a way to capture the torrential rainfall so it does not go to waste and sent back into the pacific.. We need to adapt to the changes in our climate because at this point there’s no turning back, Damage has been done.. Even if we were to miraculously turn things around globally (carbon emissions wise and such). That will help tremendously, but our climate will still be changing. (We will only slow down the process) We will probably be in a pretty serious drought for quite some time.. -even if we get copious amount of snowpack and rainfall. The extra rain and snow will definitely help in the short term, but unless we figure out a more efficient way to get through long droughts we won’t be in good shape water wise IMO. We should expect the unexpected and plan for it in California.

          • cabeza tormenta

            it would help if people like governor Brown would stand up to the timber companies that are still massively clearcutting in important central sierra watersheds, look on google earth. rain and snow that should be soaking into the earth becomes instant runoff instead of slowly recharging aquifers.

    • Here’s something about a cold tongue index (CTI). It’s probably a deal breaker to ask “Have you seen the latest cold tongue index?” on a first date. Maybe things have changed, though.
      This link may be relating to El Niño CTI
      http://research.jisao.washington.edu/enso/

  • Whittier weather dude

    Two days ago low was coming right at LA. Wtf.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      And 10 days ago the storm looked headed towards Nor Cal….as we’ve seen the models can move around A LOT especially in the Spring. Take each run with a grain of salt until it’s just about the day before.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Croucher recommends that you take up skiing in the Sierra. It’s what I’ve done. That way, you win either way with life-giving precip in the LACW or turn-yielding goodness in Da Range of Luz.

      Or it’s last year and you lose on both counts. But at least you’d be playing the odds!

  • alanstorm

    We’re now at 100% of rain for Friday , 60% for next Wed. for Mendocino Co

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      Truckee is now 90% chance Friday and 90% Sunday….let’s see if it all flips tomorrow.

      • alanstorm

        We don’t seem to have any freakish heatwaves in the 10 day either. Lows in the 30s this weekend here.
        Not eager for this year’s hot season to start anytime soon, so that’s just fine with me.

    • Mendodave

      turned off the garden water systems for a week or so!

  • RandomTreeInSB

    0z looks pretty terrible, to be honest. Our rainy season’s pretty much over so any rain that falls won’t amount to much. But I agree with Tyler that something have to give… Maybe not this season, or next year. Don’t lose hopes people…https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/8fe6188f4bfb5340885f606055a4875b2c50365bcbf1e00847c070f0a61db789.png

    • Crouching Dallas

      GFS has been on a total bender the past few days. Could be catching onto a trend, of course, but the greater likelihood is that it’s lost the plot again and is trying to walk through the Carl’s Jr drive-thru. ECMWF has been way more consistent run-to-run.

      • Pfirman

        Weird about the ‘still under moderatiion’ and even weirder that it does not show up in his collected comments for disqus. New to me.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          For some reason this comment keeps appearing close to the top of the list, as opposed to where it would normally be chronologically. I don’t know if this awaiting moderation and the weird location situation is a glitch in Disqus or what it is.

          • RandomTreeInSB

            Maybe I should just delete it and be done with it. IDK why it keeps appearing on the top. (edit: I can’t delete it. Weird)

  • RandomTreeInSB

    The hell disqus? My comment was detected as spam. Maybe the niño is shutting me up because I criticized his work. 🙂

    • StormHiker

      Weird. I tried commenting on your post but it wouldn’t post!

      Was going to say:

      I’m not throwing in the towel. I mean, I could run around and mope all day about the lack of rain and complain about the sunny weather, yet at the end of the day I’ll still have the dry, sunny weather, and I’ll also feel bad.

      • alanstorm

        Many parts of CA have had a decent rainy season. Central CA just recently got a good drenching

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Bill Patzert? is that you?
      😉

      • RandomTreeInSB

        yes

        • SoCalWXwatcher

          Knew it!

    • I go to bed early and now I have a real bad case of FOMO

  • ECMWF Ensemble 192 hours out…

    • Cool…probably not much juice, but at least cool.

      • inclinejj

        Juice is what we in the biz call Equity.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Cumulative precip for the year is just about to bump into the cumulative average line. We’ll see what Friday brings.

    • The precip chances went from 80% to 8% overnight in this area. Still well below normal for the season.

  • Barney

    And it’s fizzling..

    • Crouching Dallas

      On the GFS end of things w/ regards to the Central Sierra, definitely. But I’m holding out (and keeping my weekend clear) until the (European) fat lady sings. Last night’s run still looked pretty good.

      Edit: And that NWS SD precip forecast that Daniel retweeted also looks promising.

    • Bartshe

      Did we honestly expect otherwise? “Fizzling” has been the overarching theme of the last 5 years.

  • Flunking_retirement

    Its really quite late in the season to expect much, at least in the south. We’ve gotten so little so often.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I don’t want to go to downtown this weekend. Please make it rain this weekend. Even if it was one day.

  • Bombillo1

    Trying my best to make a silk purse out of a sow’s ear. This article in PHYS.org is suggesting that plate tectonics is related to past ice ages. Apparently newly exposed materials have tremendous CO2 sequestration abilities hence leading to cold epochs. Seems as though purging the atmosphere of CO2 has been historically the key to cooling things off, which I see as our fundamental problem now. Not necessarily the lack of rain, which is vexing enough.

    http://phys.org/news/2016-04-ancient-tectonic-trigger-ice-ages.html

    • Seriously? I missed something. What can’t they connect?

    • rainingintheLBC

      This is the uplift weathering hypothesis, and it it has been hypothesized for awhile. It occurs over very long time scales that don’t even register in the Holocene. There is alot of “fresh weatherable rock” right now(Rocky Mountains, Sierras, Tibetan Plateau, etc) so this isn’t a potential problem right now anyhow.

      • Exactly. Chemical weathering of solid rock is part of Earth’s long-term “carbon thermostat”. But it’s completely irrelevant on timescales relevant to humans–the process takes many thousands of years to “turn the knob.” That’s the whole problem with the present era of global warming–it’s not that the Earth has never warmed before, but it’s the fact that today it’s happening many orders of magnitude faster than the “natural thermostat” mechanism can operate.

      • Bombillo1

        I was hoping/viewing this process as a potential solution. Yes, the time scales are not helpful for those of us looking at the ensembles for relief!

    • WanderingTattler

      Here is a pretty detailed presentation of the carbon cycle and the control knob.

      • Bombillo1

        Thanks WT. Great presentation. Informative. So much to learn. It is easier living in ignorance but not as satisfying.

  • Fairweathercactus

    I hope for a lot of storms next season with low snow levels. I am sure me and my dad could build a snowman next season if we are lucky.

    • SoCalWXwatcher

      Although we had some colder than average weather across SoCal during late November and December, I don’t believe we had any really crop-damaging freezes.

      Never even got down to freezing once in my area during the coldest nights in December. I think there will be a few overnight freezes in LA/OC next winter, and some low snow level events, I’m just not sure the precip amounts will be much to brag about for the 6th consecutive winter.

  • Tyler what’s your wager? I have an Avatar picked out! 🙂

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      No bets yet until the weekend for the storm next week! Still looks fairly decent on the 12z ECMWF today though! Still around the Thursday time frame of next week. Major disagreement between the GFS and euro still.. Will have to wait until the weekend at least to even have a clue on rainfall amounts

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    Another hot day coming. This ridge is uber-stubborn. Worried that Friday’s storm is going to thin itself out. 🙁

    • AN50

      Friday’s storm is gone for socal and so is next week’s.

      • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

        Gahdammit!

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Colorado in the sweet spot this spring, wow.

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      Thats good their snowpack is about 93% of average for Colorado R watershed. The area does tend to get useful spring precipitation. Next few weeks could be very helpful.

    • Cut-offs favor the area. I’m wondering if this is a bonus for Lake Mead

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        Yeah seams like it should help a little. CO rockies known for big springtime snows. Looks likely they’ll get more headed into May.

  • Bartshe

    Collective pats on the back all around, record territory running 4 consecutive years (4 warmest out of top 6). No analog to this. The additional energy input & timing to the state’s ecological systems = staggering.

    • AlTahoe

      Some mystery plant in my back yard bloomed a week ago. it always blooms during the second week of May along with most of the vegetation here in Tahoe. I guess it finally decided that after 4 years of record high temps that it could start earlier now.

      • Bombillo1

        All our Dogwoods, Redbud and other usual suspects fired off a month ago, essentially 5 weeks early, again. This is the floral side of things. My call is for the the Zika Virus and the attendant African mosquito to be in Los Angeles within months. Having small brains will now be a geographical phenomena.