The Rise of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge

Filed in Uncategorized by on April 1, 2016 974 Comments

Please note that this blog post summarizes peer-reviewed research that has been published in Science Advances. This means that findings presented in the following article are the product of a formal investigation by a team of scientists, which contrasts with more typical California Weather Blog posts that are primarily based upon my own informal thoughts and analysis. I would like to thank my co-authors in this work—Daniel Horton, Deepti Singh, and Noah Diffenbaugh—for their invaluable support in bringing this project to completion. 

The full paper is freely available to all (via an open access license) here.

Citation: Swain, D. L., Horton, D. E., Singh, D., and N. S. Diffenbaugh, Trends in atmospheric patterns conducive to seasonal precipitation and temperature extremes in California, Science Advances, 2, e1501344, 2016.

 

Persistent high pressure in recent years led to extreme drought in California

The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. Quantity plotted is the seasonal 500mb geopotential height anomaly (m). Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL.

The Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, Oct-May 2012-2015. Quantity plotted is the middle atmospheric pressure (500mb geopotential height) anomaly (meteres). Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL.

Since early 2013, the state of California has been in the grip of an extraordinary multi-year drought. The accumulated precipitation deficit over the course of the ongoing drought is unprecedented in California’s century-long observational record, and when the additional drying effects of record-high temperatures are taken into account, the 2013-2016 event may in fact be the most severe in a millennium. The amount of water stored in the critically important Sierra Nevada snowpack reached its lowest level in over 500 years in 2015, and the loss of groundwater in the state’s aquifers has literally moved mountains. Drought-related impacts—including decreased agricultural and urban water availability, elevated wildfire risk, dramatically increased tree mortality, adverse effects upon riverine and marine ecosystems, and infrastructure damage to roads and pipelines —have been widespread.

Over the past several years, California weather watchers have become well acquainted with the now-infamous “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” of atmospheric high pressure—the unusually persistent atmospheric anomaly responsible for redirecting winter storms over the Pacific and ultimately bringing record-breaking warmth and dryness to the Golden State. Like a boulder displacing a narrow stream of water, this sluggish atmospheric feature consistently deflected the storm track to the north of California during the typical “rainy season” months of October to May. As a result, much of the state was left high and dry—even during what is typically the wettest time of year.

 

California unusually susceptible to weather extremes caused by recurring atmospheric patterns

California receives the majority (66%) of its annual precipitation during just four calendar months (December-March), with less than 5% falling during the summer. Since the state lies just south of the typical Pacific storm track during winter, the region relies heavily on rain and snow deposited by storm systems arriving during short-lived southward dips in the jet stream along the West Coast. The most important of these storms are associated with “atmospheric rivers”—narrow plumes of concentrated atmospheric water vapor that can bring very heavy precipitation when they move onshore and interact with California’s mountainous terrain. Remarkably, most of California’s precipitation in a typical year falls over the course of a relatively small number of strong storms. This striking dependence of California’s entire water supply upon the occurrence of just a few atmospheric river events each winter means that a surplus or deficit of just one or two such storms can quickly increase the risk of flood or drought in any given year. As a result, seasonal-scale shifts in the Pacific storm track associated with unusually persistent winter ridges are the most common cause of California droughts—since there is little opportunity to make up for accumulated winter precipitation deficits during the rest of the year.

 

Patterns similar to “Ridiculously Resilient Ridge” increasing, but not at expense of patterns associated with wettest years

Since seasonally persistent atmospheric anomalies are so strongly tied to drought (and other meteorological extremes) in California, we investigated whether North Pacific pressure patterns similar to those which occurred during California’s most extremely dry, wet, warm, and cool October-May periods between 1948 and 2015 were occurring more frequently in recent decades. We found that certain unusual atmospheric patterns are indeed occurring more often. Most notably, patterns similar to those during California’s extremely warm and dry years of 2013-2014 and 2014-2015—years during which the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge rose to prominence—occurred more frequently over the past three decades. These years were characterized by unusually low pressure over the Pacific north of Hawaii and a very strong ridge of high pressure along the entire West Coast of North America, extending from southern California all the way north to the Alaskan arctic.

Left column: Maps depicting anomalous pressure patterns over the Northern Hemisphere during the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 "rainy seasons," including the Triple R. Middle column: Similarity over time of each of the two patterns with the observed pattern in each year. Right column: Change in frequency of highly similar patterns between 1949-1981 and 1982-2015. Adapted from Swain et al. 2016, Science Advances.

Left column: Maps depicting anomalous pressure patterns over the Northern Hemisphere during the 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 “rainy seasons,” including the Triple R. Middle column: Similarity over time of each of the two patterns with the observed pattern in each year. Right column: Change in frequency of highly similar patterns between 1949-1981 and 1982-2015. Adapted from Swain et al. 2016, Science Advances.

Interestingly, however, we did not find evidence that large-scale pressure patterns associated with California’s wettest years have become less common. In fact, one of two methods we used in this study suggested that several wet patterns have actually increased in recent decades, while the other suggested little change. Therefore, while there is high confidence that patterns conducive to extreme warmth and dryness in California are occurring more frequently, this increase in patterns conducive to drought is not occurring at the expense of those associated with California’s wettest years.

We also found little change in the occurrence of atmospheric patterns leading to California’s most extremely cool years, despite a large increase in actual temperatures across the state. This suggests that the majority of California’s observed warming trend arises from a more uniform warming trend across all years, which adds to the effect of extremely warm seasons like 2014-2015.

 

Pattern of observed atmospheric warming tied to increased West Coast “ridginess”

In addition to changes in the frequency of atmospheric patterns associated with California’s most extreme years, we also found substantial changes in the average atmospheric configuration over the North Pacific. In a typical year, the West Coast of North America roughly coincides with the position of a preexisting high pressure ridge during winter—which accounts for the fact that eastward-moving Pacific storms that appear destined for California often “veer north” before reaching the state. Between 1948 and 2015, however, we found that this West Coast ridge has become notably more pronounced and increasingly persistent from month to month. The spatial structure of this long-term trend in middle-atmospheric pressure strikingly resembles that of the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge.

Map depicting the contribution of Oct-May temperature changes in the lower half of the atmosphere to changes in middle atmospheric pressure (500 mb geopotential heights). Red and orange shades show where thermal expansion due to warming have caused middle atmospheric pressure increases (meters/year). Adapted from Swain et al. 2016, Science Advances.

Map depicting the contribution of Oct-May temperature changes in the lower half of the atmosphere to changes in middle atmospheric pressure (500 mb geopotential heights). Red and orange shades show where thermal expansion due to warming have caused middle atmospheric pressure increases (meters/year). Adapted from Swain et al. 2016, Science Advances.

But why have middle atmospheric pressures been increasing at a greater rate along the West Coast than elsewhere over the Pacific or North America? We confirmed that regionally-enhanced warming of the lower atmosphere is primarily responsible for the observed increase in the average strength of the West Coast winter ridge. The physical reason for this is that the “thickness” of the Earth’s atmosphere in a particular region is proportional to temperature—in other words, warmer layers of the atmosphere take up more space than cooler ones, which occurs because air expands when temperatures increase (all else being equal). The particular spatial pattern of warming turns out to be critically important here—if temperatures had warmed by the same amount everywhere, there would be no change in the “sharpness” of the ridge. But because temperatures along the West Coast warmed much more than those in adjacent regions, the overall increase in middle atmospheric pressure reached a local maximum there.

 

Rising temperatures have already increased risk of California drought; future increases in extreme dry/wet may amplify this effect

A number of studies have already shown that the long-term temperature trend associated with global warming has increased the likelihood and severity of drought in California—even in the absence of significant changes in precipitation. Our new work demonstrates that the increasing frequency of atmospheric patterns conducive to extremely low precipitation and extremely high temperatures California is likely causing a further increase in drought risk on top of that contributed by more gradual long-term warming.

In the present study, we aren’t able to trace the exact cause of this increase in patterns similar to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge, but we do find that the observed pattern of locally-enhanced atmospheric warming near the West Coast has led to increasingly strong and persistent winter “ridginess” overall. Other scientists have presented evidence for a rather wide variety of potential causes of the California drought—including unusual tropical Pacific Ocean warmth, random atmospheric variations, and even the dramatic loss of Arctic sea ice. Several studies have specifically addressed the potential role of global warming in increasing the likelihood of West Coast ridges, but at this point it remains unclear which of these potential causes is most influential. I will probably have more to say on this topic in the coming months as our research continues.

Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL.

Long-term trends in California drought severity (upper left), temperature (upper right), Sierra Nevada snowpack (lower left), and precipitation (lower right). The red shaded regions depict the 2013-2015 drought. Adapted from Swain 2015, GRL.

Finally, it is worth noting that climate model projections for 21st century California depict a much warmer future, likely characterized by increasingly large swings between dry and wet conditions. Our new findings support the notion that that the atmospheric patterns conducive to extreme California drought are indeed increasing, but that patterns conducive to very wet years may also be increasing. It is fascinating that such large changes in the character of California precipitation are occurring despite little or no long-term change in average precipitation—which highlights the critical importance of considering changes in the most extreme years when planning for the future.

 

Key Points

  • Persistent high pressure over Pacific strongly tied to dry, warm conditions in California
  • Atmospheric patterns similar to the Ridiculously Resilient Ridge have become more common in recent decades
  • Atmospheric patterns similar to those during California’s wettest winters have NOT decreased in recent decades
  • Detectible shift toward atmospheric patterns that favor dry/wet extremes despite little change in average precipitation
  • Observed warming trend and increase in dry/wet extremes consistent with climate model projections for 21st century California

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  • LightRanger

    First.

    • SteveBloom

      And the first, they shall be third. 😉

      • SteveBloom

        And now fifth, and soon to be lost in obscurity. Sorting by newest is a sad thing for those who come first. 😉

        • LightRanger

          Heheh. Gotta sort by oldest. It’s the only way to sort. 🙂

  • David

    Thanks, Daniel.

  • Nate Wire

    Great post and very interesting paper!

  • Charles Carlson

    The data and evidence your presenting certainly feels consistent with the experience on the ground and much of the existing theory with respect to global warming. We’re on a track to shift the basic planetary geography through sea rise, which will create higher atmospheric water vapor concentrations through warming seas and greater surface area as well. All in all, 21st century California will likely be a very different place by the 22nd century. Thanks for posting.

  • SteveBloom

    Thanks for the post, Daniel. I’ll read the paper over the weekend and may have more questions then, but for now:

    You write “this increase in patterns conducive to drought is not occurring at the expense of those associated with California’s wettest years,” but taking into account the overall post-2000 drying trend, presumably these wet patterns have become somewhat dryer, similar to cold patterns having become warmer. Is that correct?

    Also, does the RRR actually have a formal definition?

    • Again, in the long run, there still hasn’t been a detectable decrease in California’s average precipitation (including through 2015). We’re still getting very wet years to balance out the increase in our very dry years—which is why I’m strongly advocating moving away from just looking at average trends in the first place (they often miss the most important story).

      • Brentwood_NorCal

        Which should place even more importance not only on conservation but also on water storage.

        But first…the bullet train….O.o

        • Bob G

          And using Cap and Trade funds on the Bullet Train 🙁

      • Tuolumne

        Is there a good source for not just mean, but median and standard deviation precip data for the state?

  • Thank you for the post.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Thank for the post Daniel, great follow up on the RRR. Can’t wait for the summer blog updates.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    If this is the future of California’s weather, then a megadrought is imminent. Not good for our lakes. I’m scared to see what next winter will be like.

    • jstrahl

      A key point is “Atmospheric patterns similar to those during California’s wettest winters have NOT decreased in recent decades.” Maybe you missed it?

    • finnster

      It will not silence the skeptics, nor should it. This is a well-researched and presented article. There are certainly other, differing science-based viewpoints and theories about large scale weather patterns and they should be considered as well.
      So many people seem to think that megadrought and desertification are a done deal and our fate is sealed. Such is not the case. Keep the faith, and keep being a responsible steward of this earth we’ve been blessed to live on.

  • flyboy45

    Frightening post.
    Persistence, the greatest forecast tool ever. Heat begets more heat. Dryness begets more dryness. Desertification is likely in the picture for the Golden State in the long run as local warming occurs within the context of overall global warming, not a pretty picture for the Golden State.

    • jstrahl

      Hmm, a key point in the post is the lack of finding any decrease in average precipitation.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Very interesting/informative post Daniel. I’m beginning to wonder if +PDO regimes across the North Pacific basin in conjunction with increasing/expanding warmth over Western North America and the Arctic(and many other regions), that a +PDO regime may now enhance or exaggerate ridging over the West more then past +PDOs?

    • Is that a blob before the ridge theory?

      • SteveBloom

        There an interesting tendency to want to blame imperfectly-understood phenomena (like the PDO) for everything. It’s not at all clear that it’s anything more than the tail (maybe just a piece of the tail) of the ENSO dog. Woof!

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        Not really. I’m thinking circulation patterns associated with ENSO variability create the + PDO spatial pattern, and once that + PDO spatial pattern is established, that now, with such increased warmth in the Arctic that could also increase persistent ridging along the west coast. ??

  • janky

    Excellent post. I’m novice weather follower but I really enjoy write-ups like this.

  • Lawyercat

    Daniel — any correlation with increasing arctic changes (not just temperature but the polar highs)?

    • SteveBloom

      Many researchers think so, although apparently not Daniel’s group (or not so much, anyway). He pointed to this paper, which I had yet to see (thanks, Daniel!), but my overall impression is that the best work on Arctic effects is being done by Dim Coumou’s group at PIK (not sure if Daniel linked any of that). That said, IIRC the Coumou group has yet to directly address the RRR situation.

      • I really have no idea where you get the idea that we discount an Arctic connection. It’s just not something we’re looking for in this paper. It’s a very hard question to answer, but that doesn’t mean we aren’t tackling it…

        • Also, if you read the full version of this paper (which is freely available; see link at the very beginning of this post), there’s actually quite a lengthy discussion of the sea ice issue.

  • Very interesting and informative post Daniel. Did I understand the end of your post correctly, that despite these past 4 (or 5 for SoCal) years of drought, the long term precip average has not gone down? Is that because these years are not yet included in the long term averages or that these past 4+ years are not that significantly different than would be found over the long term?

    Either way, it would seem to point for an eventual return to wetter conditions, before returning back to drier periods. Hopefully the return to a wetter period happens sooner than later.

    • On a statewide basis, California still hasn’t seen a detectable decrease in average precipitation. One of my main points in this paper is that only considering the “average” trend, as many studies do, masks striking changes in the character of precipitation itself…

      • That is what I gathered from your post, that the averages are not changing much, but both the wet periods and dry periods are getting more extreme. So when we arrive at our next wet period, we better be prepared. First though, is we have to get through this extended period of drought. Thanks again Daniel.

  • Bartshe

    Well written & researched with nuanced conclusions. Graph of
    declining snowpack and increasing temperatures are, once again, sobering
    reminders of our future reality.

    Thanks for the digestible key
    points, these can get integrated into a number of education programs
    over this spring and beyond. Look forward to more nuggets from the
    research paper.

  • I’m pretty sure all the ‘bad’ has been purged from the CFS data. So, SoCal & Baja get ready for your La Nina, I guess…….

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Sure, why not 😉

  • Bob G

    Sorry to interrupt the intense discussion here, lol. The CFSv2 is really having a hard time trying to peg April’s weather. The CFS had been trending dry the past few days, now it is backtracked to a more wet outcome kind of what the GFS has been picking up. Wouldn’t be surprised if it flipped again. CFSv2 had a much better handle on March.
    Great post Daniel and very sobering at California’s long-term prospects.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk1.wk2_20160331.NA.gif

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images1/wk3.wk4_20160331.NA.gif

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Maybe struggling with cut off Lows?

      • Bob G

        Must be

        • craig matthews(Big Sur)

          Tis’ the season.

    • honzik

      There’s a Czech expression: “aprílové po?así” or “capricious weather”, denoting the crazy, changeable weather you can get when winter transitions to spring/summer. The root of the word is April even though the word for the month of April in Czech is Duben.

      I think the models also struggle with this capriciousness at a time when cutoff lows dominate our weather and we transition to our predictable summer. In Europe, it seems more that the spring cold troughs can barrel through followed by high pressure and warm winds from the south. A different phenomenon, but similarly changeable and somewhat unpredictable.

      http://www.ceskatelevize.cz/ct24/sites/default/files/styles/scale_1180/public/images/1036919-279236.jpg?itok=TzExmZGL

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        That pic is off the charts!!!!!!!!!!

  • Phil Johnson

    I stayed off this thread for a month because I felt an ominous, sinking feeling after the last yclept storm series. Then this. I must give kudos where they are deserved; as bad as it appears for CA, I feel that this, and the attendant data, be required for Senator Inhofe and his ilk. I look forward to further info to be sent to him and his kind — especially in this politically sensitive time.

    Thank you, Daniel.

    aures lupi

    • The up vote is not because you stayed away for a month. :))

  • WanderingTattler

    The particular spatial pattern of warming turns out to be critically important here—if temperatures had warmed by the same amount everywhere, there would be no change in the “sharpness” of the ridge. But because temperatures along the West Coast warmed much more than those in adjacent regions, the overall increase in middle atmospheric pressure reached a local maximum there.

    Although the measurements in the following paper were not made along the West Coast, it does for the first time, report direct measurements of the warming of the atmosphere by CO2.

    The influence of atmospheric CO2 on the balance between incoming energy from the Sun and outgoing heat from the Earth (also called the planet’s energy balance) is well established. But this effect has not been experimentally confirmed outside the laboratory until now. The research is reported Wednesday, Feb. 25, in the advance online publication of the journal Nature.
    http://newscenter.lbl.gov/2015/02/25/co2-greenhouse-effect-increase/

    Probably some dumb questions. Does the West Coast put out more GHG than elsewhere, and does it matter in a global sense? The West Coast lies adjacent to what should be a huge heat sink, the Pacific Ocean, but the most active methane fields (degrades into CO2 after some time) are found off the Coal Oil Point. Thankfully, California is probably the most aggressive state in implementing renewable energy.

  • John Curtis

    Great post in the sense that it provides detailed information. Horrible post in the sense that it is very depressing.

  • B_R

    The increase in extremes implies to me that as a state we need to start investing heavily in ways to capture every drop of the wet years to make it through the dry years. That means more large-scale water storage and more permeable landscapes.

  • Dan weather maniac

    Great post.

    Sounds like a case of the rich getting richer the poor getting poor…..the hollowing out of the middle/”average.” More extremes on both ends.

    I always found it foolish to look at “Average” CA precip for exactly the reasons Daniel states. Average temps, on the other hand, are much more true here, especially as you get closer to the coast. But I really think there is no such thing as an “average winter” in terms of precip. This year for instance, at my location we are just about average right now, but driven by a few periods of very wet storms, and interrupted by an almost bone dry Feb, and a brutally slow start to the season last fall.

    But I dont find the post too gloomy as it looks like the overall precip rates arent changing much, even while temperature is undoubtedly moving up. As a state doesn’t that just mean we need to learn to better capture water when it does come, prepare better for epic floods, and improve water storage (like learn to recharge the valley aquifiers better, in addtion to lake and river management. And obviously practice more conservation and native habitat preservation.

    We’ll adapt.

    • I’m an advocate of dropping ‘average’ a rung and raising the median a rung. April is a great example. For San Jose the average is 1.25 but the median is .76 So that would suggest when it rains it pours in April or it has a few showers or less. Through winter months the median is about 15% below the average. I think the median would be a greater spread the further south you go and less the further north.
      Besides average, ‘normal’ makes me cringe even though it’s used in AFD’s

      • Pfirman

        Mean, median, and mode. What you are talking about is just mean.

    • Bartshe

      No question we’ll adapt, we’re the most successful invasive species on the planet.

      However, we are forever losing a long list of public trust assets due to warming temperatures.

      We will still be able to see puppy dogs and children playing at the beach & the occasional rainbow in the sky, but in about a hundred years you’ll be able to enjoy this near downtown Stockton.

      • Charlie B

        Time to buy something in Lodi before those oceanfront prices kick in.

        • Bartshe

          Lodi: future California Riviera.

          • shampeon

            Probably more like the Black Sea resorts, to be honest.

  • paulsweis

    I know it’s just one year, and maybe that’s the answer, but it struck me as odd that with the ridge out of the way this season, and reports of an extreme El-Nino year, we only ended up with average levels of rainfall – seems a bit disappointing, not the increased precipitation we might expect given the conditions (and given the conclusions you were noting here in terms of more extreme patterns).

    • Bombillo1

      Correcto. This was not an extreme water year by any measure. One is left wondering exactly when our extreme up-year is coming and apparently this future up-year is not going to be driven by an ENSO event, which has more or less been the driver of big rain for us historically..Now that is a new paradigm.

  • Randall Haugen

    Climate change=warming of the Oceans= Extreme changes in Weather patterns.

  • jstrahl

    Excellent post, again. I like the point of no evidence of a decrease in patterns which favor wetter conditions.

    • Charlie B

      I like that point as well. Now, when will we see those wetter conditions…….?

  • RandomTreeInSB

    Thank you for another informative post.

  • gray whale

    thanks daniel. small typo (figured maybe you’d want them pointed out in a more “official” post?) to begin 6th paragraph: “We also found little change [in] the occurrence of atmospheric patterns”

  • JDY

    If only we could go back in time to ‘observe’ (not experience!) California’s historical 200-yr long mega-droughts–would be interesting to look for parallels/differences in conditions leading up to and perpetuating (and finally breaking!) those.

  • TahoeCard

    Living at lake level of Lake Tahoe, I’m curious what the net effect of having warmer storms will have on snowpack. It’s easy to say well of course the snowpack will be smaller but that doesn’t take into account the added runoff that we get in winter. This year there is a large difference in snowpack at 6000 vs 7500 ft. At 6000 ft we are way below normal because a lot fell as rain this year whereas at 7500 we are above average. Because of the warm storms I’ve noticed that the streams in Tahoe have been running above average for most of the winter and thus putting more water straight into the lake than in cooler winters. Is there a study on this yet?

    • Pfirman

      So is the lake spilling? I thought it was low?

      • TahoeCard

        It’s got a few inches to clear the rim completely but as I sat at the red light on fanny bridge today the first signs of a trickle downstream are there. Last year, this was the highest the lake level got and then receded all summer. We are just starting spring melt so will see how much we added this year.

  • Nate Wire

    Still a little bit of snow left on Mount San Antonio (please correct me if that’s the wrong peak).

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      Yep you got it right.. probably much more on the other (north) side. One mark of a wet year in southern CA is that view on June 1. In a very few very wet years I’ve seen that view on July 1. 1997-1998 is one of them.

  • Coldspot

    Thanks for the Research and update Daniel! As a small farmer we are very dependent on the snowpack in the mountains above us to keep our pastures in good shape. Thankfully here in Northern Siskiyou county we did much better precipitation wise then in the last several years. I’m still thinking we could have another busy fire season with the high tree mortality and predicted above average summer temperatures.

    • Pfirman

      Last five years I drove by Mt. Shasta City, I believe I could only see the mountain, which looms above basically at the city limits, two times. Smoke basically obscured it the other three times. One of those times, when I bothered to ask how long they had suffered like that, it had been going on for a month.

      • Bombillo1

        Enough fuel around there to have a perpetual fire.

        • Pfirman

          One way to kill bark beetles?

          • Tuolumne

            They can’t eat dead trees…

  • kathiedecree

    Sooo, increasingly warmer…and increasingly more extreme weather, swinging from very dry to very wet periods of time–I hope these periods become shorter, as that would be considerably easier to deal with then extended drought or monsoon. I’ve noticed that the last couple of years, we’ve had more rain in the summer months (if I recall correctly, we never used to have any at all from late June to late Sept., approximately.) And I’ve noticed overall a bit more coastal and valley humidity too–did I imagine it? the article didn’t address humidity. But in the last 5-10 years there’ve actually been a few tiny tornadoes in Northern California, and I think those used to be extremely rare, right? I recall one in Fairfield about 4 years ago–along with a freak snowstorm, which we never have in the SF Bay area–and last year there was an actually quite large one in the valley (Denair.) The other day we experienced something of a microburst, including hail–unheard of in near-April back in the day. So. Is our weather becoming more Midwestern/southern? Perhaps so. I wouldn’t mind that much, though we’d definitely have to manage our water usage and storage better. And the tornadoes can stay small please, kthnxbai. 🙂

  • Thunderstorm

    Everyone misses the mark. It’s not the lack of precipitation. it’s the new problem! TOO MUCH HEAT..

    • Pfirman

      Too many humans. You missed the mark.

  • maddogokp

    Mostly cloudy over TNF today 😉 Looking west from Granite Chief.

    • Pfirman

      Funny guy.

  • Charlie B

    The last statewide wet year was 2010-11. 2011-12 was rather dismal, especially early. This article seems to exclude 2011-12 from the mix. I always though our drought started with that year……….(which makes things even worse from a historical standpoint.)

    • shampeon

      My guess is that the stress effects of the low water years wasn’t felt until ’12-’13.

    • Bob G

      If memory serves me correct the first part of that year was wet and then the tap completely shut off in January. But the reservoirs were still full from previous years and with the snowpack to date it wasn’t seen as a big deal at the time. No one saw then of things to come

      • Charlie B

        In Sacramento, Nov. 2011-Feb. 2012 saw 4.36″ compared to an average of 11.61″. March and April 2012 were good, though, and fall 2012 started out wet and then shut off around Jan.1 2013. Maybe I’m answering my own question.

        • jstrahl

          Yep, it was 2012-13 that Bob G remembers above.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        In Santa Barbara, there was one potent dry spell from January 24 to March 17, 2012. we only had 0.07″ between those dates.

        • Charlie B

          A harbinger of things to come.

          • RandomTreeInSB

            Definitely. The same dry spell happened more or less in every winter since that.

  • DelMarSD

    Latest GFS is pretty incredible.

    • Wow. Sure is!

    • Bob G

      Come on. You can’t make a comment like that and then not provide a link 🙂

      • DelMarSD

        Total Precipitation:

        • jstrahl

          What period?

        • Wow that ain’t April Fool!
          jstrahl it’s 18Z 16 day total

    • Bartshe

      Better wait a day, it’s April Fools’ and the GFS has been full of laughs over the years.

    • jakobdrafter

      That is a beauty! Did I count three predicted cutoffs in succession?

  • Charlie B

    Also, are the water managers taking notice? (Shift to patterns favoring dry/wet extremes with little change in average precip.)

    • Pfirman

      If not, they need replacing.

  • Bombillo1

    On these boards we had a discussion about Lake Lahonton (Northeastern California- Northwestern Nevada), once the size of Lake Erie, essentially dissapearing over a very short period of time after having reaching its maximum just 12 K years ago. It has been determined that it was just a 2 to 3 degree ambient temperature rise that accomplished this even though precipitation amounts have stayed the same. This rise in temperature that Daniel alludes to is eventually going to displace a large portion of the 45 million people that are now dependent on habitat that our new weather patterns will no longer sustain.

    • Charlie B

      Maybe California will need to build a wall to keep people in and maintain its tax base.

      • AlTahoe

        It now appears that buying a house 5 blocks away from the largest fresh water source in the State was a very good idea! Don’t worry I will share with the people that I like on this site when the time comes 🙂

        • Charlie B

          A hoarder are we?

          • AlTahoe

            Since I don’t have a water meter currently I am the opposite of a hoarder. Love me my 15 minute showers

        • Bombillo1

          Al, Are you on a well or municipal water? Septic or sewage system? Just curious.

      • Bombillo1

        Exactly. And make them pay for it as well.

    • The price of Ag water is too cheap and there’s no efficient crossover/redistribution from ag to municipalities that I know of unless there is a couple of huge gate valves we don’t know about.

      • Bombillo1

        I do not believe that redistribution, in terms of infrastructure, will be difficult. One simply disallows the diversions from the Sac and it’s tributaries and gin up those pumps at the base of the grapevine. The real stickler is water rights. Are we prepared to enact wholesale expropriations and the like and end Ag a la Owens Valley? One of the main things that makes the U.S. economy go is that we have rules that the judicial system enforces. Not so much outside of a very few countries. If we start summarily tossing out the rule book there is tremendous risk of destabilizing what is an economy already looking for a reason to crater.

      • Pfirman

        Not sure of these valves you speak of, but water is a gateway drug.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Weren’t there other climate factors in place, like not just the temperature but the evaporation rate due to changing climate patterns as it transitioned into a desert? (Like decreased humidity also?)

      • Pfirman

        Good point about surface area, not to mention wind.

    • Pfirman

      I see your ‘habitat’ and raise it to ‘habitual use of water’.

    • CHeden

      Lake Lahonton’s peak level was glacial-fed… which coincides with the end of the last ice age….plus as glaciers receded, land levels rebounded (rose).
      IMHO, of course.

      • Pfirman

        Good point. My wife was in New Hampshire several years ago and there was a pretty good shaker. Turns out it was because the land is still rising from the depression of the glaciers.

      • Bombillo1

        That portion of Nevada did not have glaciers. The ice age was simply cooler. But using today’s measure of the Lake depth it was over 900 feet in places. There is a Wikipedia entry that opines that Lake Lahonton could return to its original grandeur, excerpt:

        Surprisingly, the watershed feeding Lake Lahontan is not thought to have been significantly wetter during its highstand than it is currently. Rather, its desiccation is thought to be mostly due to increase in the evaporation rate as the climate warmed.[citation needed] Recent computer simulations (using the DSSAM Model[4] and other techniques) indicate, if precipitation and evaporation rates within the watershed were maintained at their historical yearly maximum and minimum, respectively, and if diversions of the Truckee River ceased, the Ice Age extent of Lake Lahontan might return.

        • Pfirman

          Well. Hmmm. Did anybody ask the trout?

          • Bombillo1

            Trout gave 2 adipose fins up to returning lake to Ice Age extent.

  • Bombillo1

    It appears that the next wet extreme is not going to be an El Nino year. Perhaps some solace there.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    I’ve been trying to refrain posting LR images due to the high volatility in the models this season, but this trend of a wetter pattern evolving for the state starting around April 7th (my lucky number!) and especially SoCal only keeps getting better and better! The 18z GFS run today is probably the best looking run for SoCal all season and if even half the storminess comes to fruition then we will be recieving significant precipitation come April.. With that being said here’s some drooling images of storms hitting SoCal! We get cut-off Lows, cold GOA lows dropping down the west coast being aided by transient ridges, undercutting energy aided by the STJ. Convective looking set-ups aswell as uniform rainfall! Enjoy these images and try not to get too excited (just in case the models are playing tricks on us again!) there will definitely be a couple more good storms at least in store for SoCal in April, but let’s hope it’s more than that! If this trend continues then oh yeah it’s gonna rain a lot! 🙂 lets do our rain dances please!

    • Crap I’m gonna wear that loser Avatar now…with pride of course for truth that I am.

    • DelMarSD

      Epic.

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      Forgot to add this image!!!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      If nothing else, it gets this board ramped up. More weather discussions the better. Even if it means LR eye candy in April.

      I hope the SW desert regions don’t heat up to much next week. But if the STJ is as strong as projected, maybe it won’t matter…

      • Pfirman

        For perspective, I am in Bozeman, Montana for a bit and the projected temperature tomorrow is seventy degrees F. I am seeing young ladies dressed as if I am in the LBC. Whack weather, or more politely, temperature anomalies.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I will believe it when it is actually raining outside my window! We have been teased by these stupid models for far too long now. Socal is WAY overdue for a good series of storms.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      “…Drooling images…” Yeah that’s for sure.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
    • Charlie B

      The various NWS AFD’s are picking up on this. Good sign.

    • Yeah those are cut offs. All will depend on how fast they move and where they hang around and where the spin off pulses come in. I’m getting excited!!

      • And still one to come in after 384

        • Crouching Dallas

          Have we learned nothing from Bartshe, Skeptical Sage of the Sierra?

          *that said, the 18Z height anomaly sequence is a thing of beauty

          • Bartshe

            don’t listen to him, it’s the sagebrush around him that’s skeptical

          • Crouching Dallas

            Nicely done. Let’s hope that the GFS is even half right about this, as judging from the Mono email today, the lake reaaaaaally needs it (as if it didn’t already!).

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • PacPalisadesLA

    First post, frequent lurker! Thanks for this post, I was looking forward to it. Very informative, and not totally what I expected. Looking forward to reading the full article!

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Wow. If you have been following the blog lately, you might have stumbled amongst some of us discussing precipitation generally falling in the lower levels and sticking to the coastal regions more than “normal.” Well if this photo of the West Coast doesn’t give a great example, then I’m not sure what else around the Pacific does. Interesting. https://twitter.com/NWSSacramento/status/716028819056898049

    • Bartshe

      also natural rain shadow

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        True, but this I have never seen before during Spring!

        • Tuolumne

          I’ll bet there was a lot more snow at this time in 2011.

  • WHAT IN THE WORLD IS ECMWF SMOKING. Holy crap 18z ECMWF accumulated precipitation.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      … Oh my …

      • APRIL FOOLS here is the original pic was from GFS but regardless still impressive. Lmao I am fairly good at photoshop so I decided to seize the opportunity.

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          You gave me a heart attack! I will take 4+ inches of rain though! 🙂

        • RandomTreeInSB

          BOOOO………. 😉

        • Actually even this map is extremely impressive for April!!

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          It still feels like an April fools joke. It would be pretty hilarious if SoCal finishes above average.

        • April fools? Lol

  • Charlie B

    Anyone care to share their March numbers, year to date totals, with location?

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      Riverside
      Feb-0.11
      March- 0.55
      Ytd- 8.83

      Wow Norco received a whopping 1.03 from the thunderstorms on Tuesday!
      http://www.floodcontrol.co.riverside.ca.us/Data/Rainfall_Summary_Report.pdf

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Oct ’15 – 0.12″
      Nov – 0.00
      Dec – 0.86″
      Jan ’16 – 3.59″
      Feb – 0.74″
      Mar – 1.50″
      Yr to date Oct ’15 – March 31 2016 = 6.81″

    • RandomTreeInSB

      Jul-Sep: .16″
      Oct: .27″
      Nov: .12″
      Dec: .37″
      Jan: 6.31″
      Feb: .48″
      Mar: 3.40″
      Jul 1 total: 11.11″
      Santa Barbara
      http://cosb.countyofsb.org/pwd/pwwater.aspx?id=3582

    • David

      For Paradise
      .00″ July 2015
      .10″ August 2015
      .40″ September 2015
      .50″ October 2015
      4.90″ November 2015
      10.30″ December 2015
      18.80″ January 2016
      1.10″ Feb. 2016
      13.62 Mar. 2016

      Season total since July 1st, 2015.
      49.72″

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Arnold (4,400 feet, Central Sierra) Through 3-31-16

    Precipitation 44.1 inches (13 year average thru 3-31= 40.97 inches)
    Snow 43.75 inches (13 year average thru 3-31= 66.32 inches)
    Snow average is declining over the 13 years, and more precip is falling as rain.
    Average snow thrower usage = 7 events. This year = 2 events

    • Charlie B

      Years ago I spent a month doing slash clean up at a scout camp near Camp Connell. Arnold was and maybe still is on my short list of retirement sites.

      • Pfirman

        Heh, check out the dogweed infestation first.

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        We like it. The pine bark beetle and drought are taking a toll on the older pine trees, and it will be interesting to see if the incense cedar becomes more dominant at this elevation as a result. Our little parcel is all incense cedars and one pine, which is showing signs of the beetle.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          The sierras are at a pyric-subclimatic seral stage. I would imagine that would extent into the lower cascades. In the absence of fire the sierras would climax out as pure cedar stands, similar to redwood stands on the north coast. Perhaps a warmer climate will mimic that senerio.

          • Arnold Weather Fanatic

            Certainly playing out in our neck of the woods. And no pine needles to rake up!

          • Tuolumne

            Well, the Sierra in a certain elevation range.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Obviously:)

        • CJ 7

          4 years ago the bark beetles were marching across my adjacent lot to my cabin lot. (truckee). at first i was only taking out the dying lodgepoles (from which the beetles had already left for a fresh tree). did online research and realized to stop them i had to take out the newly infested but still beautiful fresh trees. got the forest ranger out to mark the trees for takedown in late summer, kept the wood covered with heavy tarps for a over a year, in case any beetles survived they would be trapped. this stopped the advancement, and i have 8 to 10 cords of wood. plus i was able to save the huge beautiful lodgepoles around the cabin.

    • Bombillo1

      All of us living in snow country can absolutely corroborate your snow figures. I would bet your percentages may hold all the way from the Canadian border to the San Pedro Martir Mts in Baja.

      • jptimmons

        In Burney I’m willing to bet we’ve received 1/3rd of our average snowfall. If you want to see some really depressing figures look at McCloud and Mt. Shasta….Mt. Shasta’s historical average is around 100 inches and I’m not sure how well they did this year but last year they got practically nothing.

    • inclinejj

      Is the snow average decking or did the last couple years tweak the average?

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        The last four years have dropped the average. Here is the seven-year running average beginning 2011-12:

        95.0963

        89.585

        80.335

        75.0038

        70.285

  • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

    Hats off to you Daniel for the work on this highly complex set of circumstances. Very comprehensive and easy to digest. Thank you for the information!

  • Crouching Dallas

    Excellent piece, Daniel. I look forward to reading the entire article – partly because it’s quite likely the only one from Science Advances I’ll ever even remotely understand, and also because California is pretty great and I’d very much like it to stay that way.

    Regarding the latter, here’s a few recent shots of wildflowers off the PCT, Cheseboro hills, San Gorgonio Mountain, and a tree giving what definitely appears to be the Shaka sign.

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Really nice shots. Really like those wildflowers. Hopefully we get those April beauties displayed on the recent GFS runs n’ keep those flowers happy just a little longer. I’m headed down to Carrizo Plain this weekend myself.

      • Charlie B

        Sadly few know about the Carrizo Plain. I’ve only read about it. What does one do there?

        • craig matthews(Big Sur)

          I’ve seen it from the air, more then from the ground lol. It’s probably one of the more remote areas of the state, between Taft and Santa Maria. The pics I’ve seen that have recently come online this last week have shown some outstanding colors on the Carrizo plain and adjacent hills. As far as things to do in that area, other then nature sight seeing, as far as I know, maybe check out New Cuyama if you don’t blink too fast while driving through lol.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Some of the last remaining native grasslands in the state, if I recall? And ephemeral pools in very wet years. I’ve been meaning to go for ages. Please take pictures!

          • Tuolumne

            For those who are not aware, nearly all the state’s low-elevation and foothill grasslands are non-native grasses, except for some areas on the north coast.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Annual grasses, yes, but perennial grasses (bunch grass, fescue, etc) are native to the SoCal savanna.

          • 310weatherguy

            Im not sure what he means but i know you can drive through native grasslands on a designated route in the hungry valley area just south of Frasier park north of lake pyramid. Going up soon to see the new vegetation and scenery. And those grass lands are native.

          • Tuolumne

            Further clarification- I meant to indicate that Crouching Dallas’ mention of native grasses was not a ho-hum trivial thing , but rather something special.

          • Pfirman

            Out of state and missed this. Just had to add I love that you grow native grasses and that California actually used to be green in the summer, not golden, according to what I have read about native grasses before introduced stuff.

          • Tuolumne

            Well, greener but maybe not green all summer. But there’s also the possibility that the classification of current non-native annual grasslands as former native perennial grasslands may in many cases be inaccurate. Much of this terrain may have been primarily annual wildflowers rather than perennial grasses.

          • Pfirman

            Interesting. Who does this kind of research?

          • Tuolumne
          • Pfirman

            Thanks. I used to subscribe to Fremontia, a wonderful publication. And they did some research in my county, Yolo!

          • Tuolumne

            There are still native grasses (I’ve seen them in the wild and I grow them in my garden), but people tend to assume that the grasses on the hillsides are native when the vast majority of times they are not. Yes, there are native grass hot-spots out there but they’re the exception not the rule.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Agreed – thanks for clarifying! I particularly like the bunch grasses and fescues. Way more interesting than euro grazing grasses!

        • Tuolumne

          Rarely, see impressive displays of wildflowers. Otherwise, travel through a stark and expansive landscape (a climatological desert) ripped by the San Andreas Fault. It’s one of the best places in the state for seeing fault features such as offset stream courses.

  • CHeden

    Here’s the GFS total precip through mid-April…which is quasi-mirroring the EC’s estimates. Also, here’s the 8-10 day model comparisons. Can’t remember when I’ve seen such excellent agreement. Confidence is growing.

    • Pfirman

      ‘Confidence is growing.’ Heh, you are such a confidence man eight to ten days out.

      • You are drier than the Sahara

        • RandomTreeInSB

          Meh. Atacama is better.

          • Categorically yes. Yet there is this….occasionally when the boy arrives.

      • inclinejj

        But Heden is pretty much spot on 8-10 out.

    • inclinejj

      Nice . The future is so bright, we gotta wear shades!

    • But, but things were so bleak a couple or five days ago. Is this partly or mostly from a decoupling of everything this El Niño had ahold of?

      • CHeden

        Based on the generic pattern showing high pressure over the NW and troughing underneath, this is what many of us were speculating on how the EL Nino pattern would/should evolve (maybe 4-5 months ago???). Anyway, I still see solid sub-tropical feeds coming into Pacific lows, so our SEN is still making it’s presence felt.

  • CHeden

    And, lest I forget in all the excitement, a huge thank you to Daniel and his colleagues for making this type of information and cutting-edge analysis’ available for all of us to share and learn from. Am still digesting the paper, and I as well as others will surely have some questions. A great opportunity for learning, for sure.

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      Right on! Spent some time this PM reading the paper, and will revisit in to try to get more to sink in. Highly appreciate this!

  • Sfedblog

    Will it rain next week?

    • Patrick McGuire

      Well if the latest GFS runs stay the way they are going, I would say around April 8 going forward it’s going to get wet. Looks like maybe SoCal will really benefit from this trend too, and it’s about time…

    • Charlie B

      No.

  • Charlie B

    Common people. Join the party in positing your home grown stats for YTD and March!

    • DelMarSD

      San Diego:
      1.71″ July 2015
      .01″ August 2015
      1.24″ September 2015
      .43″ October 2015
      1.54″ November 2015
      .88″ December 2015
      3.21″ January 2016
      .05″ Feb. 2016
      .76 Mar. 2016

      Total: 9.83

      • Charlie B

        Close to average but skewed due to July and September I guess.

      • Tuolumne

        That’s a weird two-month cycle!

      • lizardkiss

        North San Diego here…no numbers but Carlsbad recently opened the first desalination plant, which should relieve the drought situation a bit……http://carlsbaddesal.com/

    • Barney

      Donner Lake since October 1st: 23.4″ of rain, 201″ of snow. March: 51″ of snow , 8″ of rain.

      By the way I’m down amongst the So Cal brethren, got some surprisingly fun low tide bowls at HB cliffs this afternoon, though it’s tough for my tubby ass to surf the way I’d like to. Really need to lay off the pastries.

      • Charlie B

        Atta boy! I was down on the San Clemente pier last weekend with my wife drinking margaritas watching the action. I’m a bit out of shape to participate as I would look ridiculous.

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        HB born and raised! A local for most of my life! ^_^ and when I return I’m still a local for life.

      • inclinejj

        Remember the Incline Bear who was hooked on the pastries a the bakery in Incline Village, across from the Hyatt. The bear put on a 100 lbs eating everything that got tossed at night.

        I passed tubby ass in November. Time to start hitting the beaches for stripers I walked about 7-8 miles yesterday.

        Down in the LBC again?

        • Barney

          Enjoying the sunshine in the LB

      • 310weatherguy

        Ha ha feel the burn lol. Although temps really are not that bad right now. Not bad at all.

    • Pfirman

      That would be c’mon, commonly. Around here in the lower Sacramento Valley it is not all that festive as we are somewhat behind and it is not good going around feeling you’re behind.
      Was doing some planting and the ground was already freakishly dry.

      • Charlie B

        Autocorrect

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      13.39 to date. Average to date 17.67. March 2.01 Starting July 1.. 2015-16 season.

    • Phil(ontario)

      March roughly 1.5
      Season to date roughly 8.5.
      Avg YTD 13.5.
      Winter storms: November to March, 6.5.

    • Bob G

      Newman CA. YTD 9.5 inches. YTD avg about 10

  • jaybeez

    What I know about weather wouldn’t fill a thimble, and what I do know I’ve gotten from this blog.

    But I do know a little about equity markets, and what I think I’m hearing is that the pattern going forward is one of volatility; higher highs, lower lows. Yes it will rain, sometimes a lot, but then it won’t, and it might be for a long time. And the overall trend is hotter.

    So you’ll forgive someone who has probably spent too much time on trading desks, but when markets are moving fast you don’t have the luxury of long discourses for what’s going on, you need the info quick, blunt, and you it succinctly.

    If California was a stock, and you owned it, what I’m hearing is: you’re fucked.

    • matt (truckee)

      So we should go short on CA?

      But seriously, we need to adapt our water usage and policies quickly. It will hurt but it is possible. If we have the political will to piss off some of the entrenched interests. If we do not, then yeah, you are correct.

      • jaybeez

        I’m from here so I’m probably in it for the long haul, but you start to think about this maintaining, or possibly getting worse?

        Farming in the Central Valley? They’re screwed.

        Rising sea levels? Some of the most valuable real estate in the country is here and less than 100 yards from the beach.

        I mean Southern California alone, largest population center in the country, with what 13 million people in the L.A. Basin, and it’s going to get hotter, and they’re going to have less water?

        Make the Rodney King riots look like a picnic.

        I admit, it’s a “sky is falling” premise. But everything hangs in the balance, and it’s all, ALL predicated on Sierra snow pack. You can’t store enough water to supply this state. We’re waaaay past that.

        I’m just saying that it could real ugly, real fast.

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          They will get water here some how, the LA/I.E. area is one of the largest metropolitan areas in the world

          • Sideways Sleet

            Possibly but ag is the big guzzler. That’s gotta change.

        • AN50

          No, the east coast around Boston/NYC/Philly/DC is the most populated place in the country at over 50 million. The great lakes is second at 30 million and LA/socal at 20 million. In fact the entire state of California at nearly 40 million is less populated than the east coast megalopolis at half the size, but nice try.

          What is true is we have a water capture, storage and delivery system designed for 25 million serving 40 million. That is why a 5 year drought has drained the states reservoirs dry when they are supposed to carry us through 7 years of drought. And don’t for get we decided it was a good idea when it was raining to let loose water during dry years to save fish.

          The bottom line is we are not going to save our way out of this and we need to start making water from the sea rather than allowing ourselves to be governed by climate change. For those suggesting that we scale back and live like the third world, please, please do it first and show everyone how that will work out, before you start voting for laws forcing us to.

          • matt (truckee)

            Regarding that “water capture, storage and delivery system designed for 25 million” … what agricultural load and crop mix was it designed for?

          • AN50

            There was no “design” criteria that I know of. The agricultural mix has changed but as far as use per acre it is less now than half a century ago and the productivity has increased. Most of this due to better water management rather than crop change. We still grow alfalfa here if you can believe that and its a he|| of a water consumer.

      • inclinejj

        Matt people have short memories. Check this out. People who bought million dollar houses in the last 2008 mortgage meltdown are already maxing themselves out again. Credit card, auto debt, and student loan debt at all time highs. Right when property values started rising I started to see the banks pump equity lines of credit once again. The Feds are the classic pumpers and dumpers. They pump up housing with 3% fixed interest rates let everyone buy back in to the Hedge Fund & Wall Street fueled insanity, then pull out the rug from everyone.

        This housing run is starting to lose traction. I am starting to see the cracks.

        So when it rains people say drought over.

        • Tuolumne

          OMG…

          From 1976 to the present I’ve seen several cycle of water conservation awareness during drought followed by complete forgetting during the next wet cycle. Around 2000 or so I saw a new public landscaping project along a road, with lots of turf (including in the median) as well as water-demanding trees being installed. This idiotic design locked in either a long-term watering commitment or a need for a complete and expensive redo at a future date. GRRR!!!

          • AN50

            We like green landscapes, I don’t necessarily like all the extra people living here.

      • AN50

        How about engineering a solution that provides more water separate from climate? Why are the only methods thought about those that require killing our landscapes, living like the third world so more people can move here?

        • matt (truckee)

          Unintended consequences. We are largely in our currnet predicament because we think we can out engineer nature. Simply not possible. We need to learn to live within natures boundaries, not vice versa. That, and quit breeding like sex crazed rabbits.

          • AN50

            The entire 5 billion humans living on this planet are doing so because we out engineered nature. Are you suggesting we kill off 5 billion humans so we can reduce the population to a sustainable 2 billion? And are you willing to live an acerbic life style, free of cars, trucks, buildings, technology, working the land by hand, spending 12 hours a day toiling to provide subsistence level nourishment?

            Most modern humans in the first world have absolutely no clue what is going on behind the scenes to make it possible for them to live. That’s why I laugh and then cry when I see loopy suggestions about living sustainably. You simply cannot. Your entire existence is engineered out of nature and that becomes all to clear when you start looking at what would happens when the machinery of our modern civilization breaks down.

            Ok, so I am biased. As an engineer, I have spent my life solving problems, not shrinking away from them. And yes the third world breeds like rabbits. Most of the growth in the first world is by migration not birth rate. So the sooner we bring the third world up to first world standards of living, requiring a lot more energy production, the sooner we can shut down the birth rates there.

            But no matter, the energy production around the world must increase or all humans must diminish. In the end its just math and all the social considerations don’t mean anything.

    • Dan weather maniac

      ok following your logic I’ve owned a chunk of this stock over half my life and it’s paid very nice dividends for me.

      I’ll stay invested in this wonderful place.

      Ca has always been boom bust / hi/low…. I never put the weather equation into it like that but you are right in that sense.

      But to say we are f@Cked???

      Nahhhhh…

      better sell now and move away and wait for the big one so you can have your Arizona beach front property!!

      I’ll stay here holding forever like Buffett and enjoying this wonderful place for years to come.

      • inclinejj

        If my wife’s work was in Nevada I would be out of this nut house in a second.

        • Charlie B

          California: Land of fruits, nuts and vegetables.

          • Bombillo1

            California 2100, land of endless tracts of housing interconnected by asphalt. The oldest inhabitants will remember when there were fruit, nuts and vegetables.

          • inclinejj

            California just like a granola bar:

            Fruits nuts and flakes

      • inclinejj

        Being you quoted a George Strait song I will upvoted you.

    • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

      I think there will be enough water under this scenario if waste, low priority usage is addressed, and more runoff recovery. Our mountains will still be producing very good runoff at times. Probably biggest concern to me would be sea level rises. Does anyone know of a map overlay which shows parts of CA with very low elevations over sea level? 5-20ish feet?

      I do believe the general end of fossil fuels is in sight.. but unfortunately probably too late to avoid some serious problems. Would love to see a few blockbuster technological breakthroughs in my lifetime in this regard. Go science!

    • inclinejj

      Or if California was a stock you would short the hell out of it.

  • Fish Farmer (Fresno)

    Models show some short term gains coming….but climatologically, a bear market

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      LA averages 0.9in in April, it does rain in April!

      • Tuolumne

        I’ll bet the median is a lot lower.

      • Mike Z

        Yes. But a short distance away, the Ventura County coast had seen just over 6″ for the whole season. That’s about 1/3 of average with 80% of the season behind us. Chances of an April or May miracle are staying to look slim. The promises of rain have evaporated here every month since November. What makes this month any different? Again, we can only hope…

  • Nate Wire

    What’s trending on FB…

    • 310weatherguy

      Taylor Swift? Lol

  • CA winediva

    Here in extreme SW Napa Valley in the Mt Veder area, 10.51 inches for month of March. 25.46″ total from January 1st.

  • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

    Excellent post, thank you Daniel and everyone that worked on this. And wow…rain in SoCal is in the cards? Let’s keep everything crossed!

  • bnweather

    its simple… we build a pipeline from british columbia and put sprinklers in the sierras so we get water supply and avoid wildfires.

    • bnweather

      im not being serious with this, dont worry

      • Arnold Weather Fanatic

        When we travel up to Portland, our relatives voice concerns that Califonia is coming after their water.

        • xeren

          We are, by moving there and driving up their real estate prices as well!

          • Tuolumne

            Maybe the 21st century in the west will be characterized by water sucking people towards it rather than money sucking water towards it.

    • inclinejj

      I almost spit out my coffee laughing.

    • Tuolumne

      Don’t forget the fairy dust! Very important.

    • Sublimesl

      Drag icebergs from Mars with Elon Musk’s hyperloop

      • Tuolumne

        As they burn up in the atmosphere over our state we’ll get more humidity in the air and maybe more rain and snow!!!

  • Bahia (Novato)

    What is the suspected cause of “But because temperatures along the West Coast warmed much more than those in adjacent regions, the overall increase in middle atmospheric pressure reached a local maximum there.”? Local GHG maxima? Urban heat island effects? Deforestation? All 3 combined?

    • Tuolumne

      GH gasses are well-mixed in the atmosphere so that’s not it. Deforestation is not a major factor here – yet (wait till we get a lot more forest fires in the mountains). Urban heat islands are not enough to heat up the whole region from the surface up to high altitudes.

      I’d put my money on changing broader-scale atmospheric circulation giving us the short straw.

      • Bahia (Novato)

        Thanks for the reply. Makes sense. So maybe we’re getting stuck in a positive feedback loop where the increased subtropical ridging is boosting temperatures on the west coast and heating up the 500mb levels leading to strengthened ridging ?

        It also seems like as a result pac nw is getting even wetter?

        • Bombillo1

          Who is getting the long straw? This is a serious question as I am wondering if people on Vancouver Island, for example, are MORE pleased with their weather tendencies?

  • Phil(ontario)

    So what I take from this article is that yes the average temperatures will continue to increase. But although the last 5 years have been dry, we should have a couple wetter than average winters in the future to balance out the overall climate average for California.
    Everyone knows high pressure leads to warm and dry conditions. My question is, what came first the chicken or the egg? Is a warming Eastern Pacific leading to an increase in high pressure systems on the west coast, Or are high pressure systems causing the west coast to warm up?

  • This means as a state we need to commit billions of dollars to projects that can store water from the extreme WET winters for the more common extremely dry years. In addition, desalination plants, however energy intensive, are going to be necessities that need to be planned for NOW. However, I suppose they would need to be several miles inland to protect from the upcoming rises in sea level so they’re not submerged a few years after they’re finished.

    • inclinejj

      This means the stupid bullet train pet project should be abandoned at once.

      • Flunking_retirement

        Oh nice ! More taxes. Perhaps our brilliant legislature might also want to reconsider its overly generous funding of other stupid activities.

        • Guest

          Out of curiosity, what would those activities be?

          • Flunking_retirement

            take your pick. We are 443 billion in the red and counting

      • Tuolumne

        Movement of the shoreline inland will be entirely dependent on topography. In some places it won’t move at all, except maybe a little due to accelerated bluff erosion (think of the recent excellent example in Pacifica). In other cases the shoreline can and will move much farther. The Delta will be toast, for instance. It’s not useful to think of a single distance like “several miles”.

        Low-lying portions of SF and Oakland will definitely be threatened. Other places near the water will do just fine due to being higher up. SFO and OAK will be in a world of hurt due to being very low, having huge perimeters, and being built on Bay mud that’s harder to build seawalls. SJC is higher up and is safe in this century.

        We can expect high-value real estate (think downtown SF) to be protected at great cost, but in many other places land is going to have to give way to water.

        • Sublimesl

          Downtown SF is high enough, the Delta however is mostly below sea level. The problem is the water delivery system is dependent on pumping water from the Delta.
          Yet no one will do anything about this until sea water starts getting into the actual delta water, by then there will be so many people living here solving the problem will be extremely difficult.

          • Tuolumne

            Parts of downtown SF are on bay fill and quite low. Even today, king tides cause minor flooding on the Embarcadero. The original shoreline is between Fremont Street and First Street. The latter was laid out as the first street from the bay, but later bay fill allowed more streets to be added bayward.

          • Sublimesl

            A sea wall is very practical for that location. Alameda however…

          • Tuolumne

            Alameda is built on Merritt Sands which will tend to liquefy in a strong earthquake. Great foundation for a seawall….

    • Sublimesl

      Or maybe not add 15 million more people onto a water system designed for about a third of that amount of folks.

    • HD

      How about we develop projects to store rain water. More rain water especially in cities runs off into the ocean. If we start storing that water or develop mechanism to store it in the ground which would also increase ground water level then we should be good.

      Also, lots of countries in the world survive on 10% of what California consumes with population far greater than California. I guess California just has to Adapt. And I agree that bullet train plans is a non sense and waste of money.

      The place where I grew up (Gujarat) suffers from similar drought/wet cycle and the people have adapted by making check dams in villages on every stream they can find. In rainy season the stream flows and the check dam fills up. This also helps with Ground water.

      California needs to send a clear message to its resident about what future entails. The conversation effort we had last year can be asked for every year, even the very wet years. Interesting times lies ahead but we can pull it off!

  • John Curtis

    Is there such thing as the April Answer? It looks like it might be on its way.

    • Patrick McGuire

      It sure is looking nice starting around April 8 isn’t it? And for once the GFS runs are all showing some consistency now, and it’s only 6 days away. If that system at the end of the 06Z comes to pass that looks like a real soaker.

    • Sublimesl

      It is the cruelest month, so be prepared.

  • John Curtis

    April Answer© John Curtis Enterprises, Inc.

    • If that’s considered intellectual property then I am completely out of my element here on this blog.

  • Sublimesl

    Thanks for sharing the interesting research. Still not completely sure why the anomalous heights specifically here at that position on the West Coast, and wonder if other areas of the globe are having similar phenom’s.

    Western Australia, probably the closest analog in terms of climate, has been having increasingly dry years, punctuated by very wet episodes in summer.

    We all knew that weather patterns would change with AGW, the change in SSTs alone would have to cause shifts somehow. Now we are finding out the particulars…the hard way it seems.

    The solution from our dysfunctional political/economic system of course is to do nothing, but keep on keeping on. Humans always learn the hard way.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Fair weather says start expecting the models to start to show less rain by 18z

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      I’d be happy if even half the rain that’s being shown by the models right now comes to fruition!

    • Bombillo1

      I made that assumption when the spittle was being sprayed about the upcoming weather pattern change. At the extreme north end of the state here, the faucet shut off and I am seeing our nemesis gaining strength. We just fired our biggest kryptonite vaporizer at this thing (super El Nino) and it basically bounced off it.

    • Patrick McGuire

      Well it didn’t happen on the 12Z. Looks wetter than 06Z! Lets see what happens on 18Z

  • WanderingTattler

    Have seen this paper mentioned in a wide variety of places – so it is being read by many, many people, hopefully.

    The presentation yesterday for the Tesla 3, opened with the state of CO2 in the atmosphere and the temperature rise where we are close to +2 for the average temp but 10 times as much in extreme temps. Some people are listening – 242,000 orders so far, with competitive models about to reach the market soon. We are on the knife’s edge, and there are some people doing good things.

    • Bombillo1

      I am disgusted with the taxpayer bailout of the automotive makers in this country. The Great Recession was an opportunity lost for clearing the decks for the next wave of forward looking companies. Tesla deserves this market unto itself until someone does a BETTER job at innovation. All these companies (GM, Ford et al) are jackals making a living off the real visionaries. Time to step aside.

      • WanderingTattler

        Disagree. Millions of support industries would have lost jobs and cratered the economy beyond repair. Auto companies are now making competing electric cars, which was exactly Musk’s purpose – he wanted as many companies to switch to electric even if he ultimately lost. His motivation has always been for the health of the planet, and if the planet won and he lost to competition, he would be ecstatic. I’ll see if I can find the quote.

        • Bombillo1

          I understand your rationale and I too have heard this expressed by Musk, but, if there is any advantage to free market economics it is the notion of successful innovation wins the market place. If there is anything exceptional about this country that principle is germane. It is not due to genetic superiority.. Should the buggy whip makers have been subsidized by taxpayers because they were being employed? One has to believe that people that do their job well will find their way forward. What young, new forward thinking people could have backfilled into this niche if the the rear looking oligarchs had been shown the door?

          • WanderingTattler

            According to the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Mich., every assembly plant job creates a total of 10 jobs in the supplier and support industries.

            Subsidies – the oil and gas industry is the biggest recipient of subsidies, when they are the most profitable (and most environmentally destructive) industry in the history of the planet, and quite frankly it is not necessary. There is a time and place for subsidies, and when the entire economy is on the brink, then that is one of those times.

          • Bombillo1

            I will be at the front of the mob with the biggest pitchfork when the oil and gas oligarchs are finally displaced by low cost clean electric generation AND storage. We are close.

            I think that artificially saving jobs by supporting backward thinking industry leaders is an error. If you follow your rationale you wind up with an East Germany during the cold war era where innovation in manufacturing was avoided so that there would be sufficient employment for all and social unrest avoided.

          • WanderingTattler

            Did bailing out the Savings and Loans hurt the country? After the auto bailout, there is more innovation than ever before. Unless conditions are identical, one cannot compare East Germany and the US, where innovation and tech advances have always led the world.

          • Bombillo1

            I was working as an IT contractor for a Savings and Loan in 1990 when that collapse took place. They were allowed to fail and they did by the spades. That failure at least allowed me to leave that sector and do more interesting things. I always think about the fact that hundreds of thousands of those S & L employees were allowed to loose their jobs but other jobs, now, are considered more sacrosanct and MUST be saved.

          • WanderingTattler

            Because we have strayed from weather discussions – I will delete all my prior comments because you have read them.

          • Bombillo1

            I will do the same and did enjoy this.

      • WanderingTattler
  • Skye H.

    Just a caution – Canadian isn’t showing NEARLY as much moisture as the G(wtF)S is.

  • alanstorm

    Currently showing 70% chance of rain on Fri the 8th for Willits/Ukiah with temps in the 60’s
    That can only mean 1 thing: THUNDERSTORM ACTION FOR TORNADO VALLEY

  • WarmEpoch4California

    Temperatures in the 80s and 90s mid-week followed by a cut-off low and some cooling later in the week = more thunderstorms?????????

  • Bombillo1

    We’re now projected to have 85 degree weather on the 6th and 7th of April. I can not say this is shocking but rather the continuation of historically high temperatures that we routinely register these days. Reservoir and any other surface water storage, going forward, is going to have to recalculate evaporative losses which is the equivalent to a significant hole in the impoundment. 2450′ ele. 50 mi N of Redding.

    • jptimmons

      I live in Burney and the house I’m renting doesn’t have air-conditioning because “It normally doesn’t get that hot here”…The “old” average July high is 88. It’s supposed to be 83 on Wednesday………on April 6th.

      • Azmordean

        To be honest, one hot day, even in spring, isn’t that unusual. I’m just glad we aren’t having the extended heatwaves we seem to be getting more often these days.

        • Bombillo1

          Well, as JPT above succinctly states, it’s APRIL 6th we are talking about. Historically, Burney would have been much more likely to have snow on this date rather than these Cabo San Lucas type temperatures.

    • Charlie B

      My oldest son played a lot of baseball. I remember when he was 11 in little league “opening day” saw 85 degree temps in Reno. Everyone was in shorts and sandals (except the players of course). When he was 12 opening day saw 6″ of snow. Go figure.

      • inclinejj

        I remember Memorial Day In Tahoe you never knew what you would get. Sometimes snow, sometimes 80 degrees.

        I remember one year we went up to the Pit River. It was cold and snowy a week before and it was in high 70’s.

        • jptimmons

          I worked at Kirkwood one summer and it snowed in early July.

    • I still can’t resist to ask “How many?”

      • low snow levels

        There are 300 bears all hiding under your bed

        • Arnold Weather Fanatic

          320

          • shampeon

            Plus another 2 in the closet.

          • Arnold Weather Fanatic

            Great Gahan Wilson joke many years ago in Playboy: Bleary-eyed father is bringing his kid a glass of water at 3 a.m. He is standing in doorway assuring the child, “For the last time, there are no monsters in this room.” A large monster has its back and arms pasted to the wall behind the open door.

    • Bombillo1

      This is existential stuff Daniel. It is difficult to over-state the necessity of something like this developing and guaranteed all of us here will be paying close attention! Thank you for providing this site and entertaining our howling.

    • alanstorm

      Yes, the Bears are watching.

    • low snow levels

      This may be a good set up for severe weather here in CA with cut off lowes and with warmer Temper at this time of year any cold air warm air mix could give us a good severe weather out break so some in too watch

      All so will need too watch this has it heads in too the plains states and gulf cost and we could see more severe weather outbreaks three has well

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      And that’s thru the 12th of April! ECMWF long range forecast is calling for an active and above average wet period April 11th-17th? I believe it is? For SoCal!! (And the southwest)

    • Arnold Weather Fanatic

      Looks like a pineapple express.

      • Utrex

        Pineapple express forecasts through precipitation look different; heavy rain-shadowing in the valley with most of the rain over the mountains is highly characteristic of an atmospheric river pattern.

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Even the usually conservative Oxnard NWS AFD is coming aboard with a major change in the weather pattern. Here’s an excerpt:

    .LONG TERM…(TUE-FRI)

    ……..IT IS LOOKING MORE PROMISING THAT THERE WILL BE RAIN IN OUR FORECAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THEN…ANOTHER ROUND AND POSSIBLY MORE SIGNIFICANT BY NEXT WEEKEND AS THE UPPER TROUGH CUTOFFS OFF JUST WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE GFS LOOKS A BIT STRONGER…BUT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE SAME IDEA IN RESPECT TO THE TRACK.

    Trying not to get excited about the prospects of RAIN here in SoCal being 5-days out but this is the first time in a while they forecasted a “possibly significant” round of precip.

    • Nathan

      Cut-off! Cut-off everyone! Old school rules!

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Do not fret!! Rains of epic proportions shall return to SoCal with a vengeance to close this season out!! While it will not make up for the accumulating deficit down in SoCal.. at least it will bring some relief and a bit of sanity back to us rain thirsty SoCal brethren!!! ??

    • DelMarSD

      San Diego is basically at the seasonal average currently. If we get over 2.5 in April, and more in May, San Diego County could finish the season significantly above average. That’s what happened last year. This Spring is gonna be epic.

      • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

        Hope to see a strong close to the season. It would be hard to get to avg level, but it could get to 80% with a couple inches. Even with the rainfall we’ve had, the oak trees are looking much better compared to a few months ago. Leaves much denser, darker green..earlier the trees looked gray and thin. I’d say nearly all the local trees have improved..maybe 10-15% still look sickly..at least in the locations I’ve looked at.

        • DelMarSD

          Late Season rains can be extremely beneficial, especially in the mountains. I visited Palomar Mountain last June, and it was extraordinarily lush; the greenest I’ve ever seen it. April and May recorded over 10 inches of rain up there lat year.

          • Tom P (Trabuco Canyon)

            Perfectly timed for prime growing season..

          • DelMarSD

            Yep.

    • Phil(ontario)

      Yes! Last time models had this much agreement for Socal within the 7 day window I recorded .35 inches of rain. Let’s go!

  • DelMarSD

    Interesting graphic. I knew SD had been getting more thunderstorms than usual. And I’m sure that number will skyrocket up this year come monsoon season.

  • low snow levels

    Looks like we will see are 1st mid 80s and may be even lower 90s this coming up week With lower too mid 90s in the S valley around Fresno area S so this looks to be are 1st real heat wave of the season . Even no it will be short lived

    • Phil(ontario)

      we had mid 90s in february

  • thebigweasel

    Second day in a row it’s hit 80 here. Not records for the dates, but within a couple of degrees. It used to be April was the month the snow finally vanished. That happened this year six weeks ago…

  • Atrocalypse

    I believe the radioactive waste from the 2011 meltdown in Fukushima is the cause of these abnormally persistent ridges that have appeared. Could be mistaken.

    • thebigweasel

      “Could be mistaken.”

      Yeah, that’s always a possibility.

      • Fairweathercactus

        The little microwave near Baja and its high cloud flying friends are interesting to look at as well.

    • alanstorm

      If that was true there would have been year after year of mega-RRRs in the 50’s when they were popping off hydrogen bombs in the S.Pacific by the dozen

      • FolsomPrisonBlues

        I don’t think so. The Japan deal dumped who knows how much radioactive waste directly into the ocean over a long period of time. Not only that, but its proximity in the north Pacific could have an even larger impact.

        • alanstorm

          I’m not aware of any correlation between large amounts of radiation causing anomalous ridging. Sure, Fukushima released alot, but it pales in comparison to the atmospheric tests of the 50’s & 60’s. Castle Bravo was 15 megatons & was extremely dirty, contaminating large area of the S. Pacific. But then the Russians unleashed 50 & 60 megatons monsters that circulated fallout around the globe. Was there an RRR in 1962-63?

          • Charlie B

            Czar bomba was tamped down to 50mt. Designed for 100mt. Teller figured that 100mt was about the max possible. Those puppies were all surface or air burst. Boom.

          • alanstorm

            Total insanity. It prompted the atmospheric test ban. Talk about a stratospheric warming event!

          • Alex Besogonov

            Nope. You can make hydrogen bombs as powerful as you want, there are no theoretical limits. In practice large bombs are too heavy to be practical for military applications.

            What you might be thinking is the yield of a purely fission nuclear bomb. It’s limited at about 100kT by the maximum size of a fissile plutonium sphere that can be detonated.

          • Charlie B

            mike and castle bravo got most of their power from fission and not fusion, which I always thought as being odd.

          • Alex Besogonov

            That sounds odd, but actually it’s not.

            In a typical military fusion bomb most of the energy comes from fission of a U-238 blanket. U-238 is normally not fissionable, but fusion reaction in a hydrogen bomb provides plenty of fast neutrons to do it.

            Coincidentally, most of the fallout is caused by the fissioned uranium. It’s also possible to create a “clean” fusion bomb where most of the energy comes from pure fusion. Tsar Bomba was one such example, it used lead instead of uranium for the blanket.

            And the infamous “neutron” bombs are simply fusion bombs with lightweight blankets that let neutrons to go through it.

          • alanstorm

            Also, the W-79 “enhanced radiation weapon” (or neutron bomb) was a boosted fission device

          • Nate Wire

            The amounts of energy released in those tests are just crazy. My grandfather worked at the Nevada Test Range in the early 60’s as a geologist, but those bombs were only on the order of 100s of kilotons, and still had a very large effects (like the Sedan test). And with the Tsar Bomba, I think there were reports of windows being broken 900 miles away in Finland!

          • Alex Besogonov

            And yet, a typical hurricane dissipates this much energy in several hours. A superhurricane like Sandy does it in just several _minutes_.

          • Nate Wire

            True, true. You could say the same thing about earthquakes in an even shorter amount of time, but I still find the way that energy is released in such a short amount of time impressive though.

          • alanstorm

            Sudan’s sub-surface shot was on the of 100k, but the Hood shot (Plumbob series 1957) was the largest atmospheric test ever conducted in the U.S. at 74kt & circulated quite a bit of fallout into CA.
            Funny u mentioned your grandfather worked at the NTS, my uncle worked for DOE. In the early 90’s I was able to actually get a tour of the test site granted to family of employees. Naturally, I was over the moon. Went thru Frenchman flat on a tour bus, saw inside the control center, then the o amazing was a train ride INSIDE P tunnel of Yucca Mtn to see the preparation of an underground shot that was inevitability canceled by Clinton. One of the coolest days of my life!

          • Nate Wire

            That’s awesome! What a place to tour! I do recall hearing something about major contamination with that specific test. But they would send my grandpa and some other geologists down into the craters with dosimeters to study the morphology of the crater and measure the radiation. Considering what Operation Plowshare was about, I think they weren’t too worried about the effects of the radiation at that time.

          • alanstorm

            Or didn’t care. It was GAME ON with the Russians back then. If you look at the flow patterns of the fallout from each shot, some went wayward back into CA over populated areas. Operation Plumbob in ’57 regularly marched soldiers into to glass-melted ground zero sites just minutes after detonation. Crouched in trenches they could “see the bones in their hands” like xrays!
            Yeah, seeing Frenchman Flat where that all went down was why I hoofed it all the way out there, but the train inside the Mtn was the mind-blowing bonus. Basically miles of tunnels filled with expensive equipment, like giant Sandia blast doors built to contain blasts & only let thru EMP for testing equipment. Had to wear a radac badge then turn it end at the exit of NTS. They made a big showing to our small tour group on how SAFELY they were storing nuclear waste. Might have been the main message they were conveying.

          • Charlie B

            It is interesting that the main NTS radiation lawsuit went on for close to two decades and was eventually thrown out due to governmental immunity. The lead plaintiff, Mr. Prescott, was the only living plaintiff when the case was dismissed.

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            Very good point there. I am just wondering how all the nuclear waste going directly into the ocean is affecting things, or rather how it could possibly affect things..

          • Alex Besogonov

            It can not. Even if we dump all our current reactors into the ocean, it won’t make a measurable difference in the ocean temperature.

            Even the natural decay heat of naturally dissolved uranium and thorium in the ocean water is orders of magnitude greater than the combined nuclear power generation.

          • FolsomPrisonBlues

            It has to at some point begin changing the chemical makeup of the water though…Pour coke into a tub of water and it is no longer pure water…I know the ocean is a lot larger, but even so…

          • Alex Besogonov

            There’s a question of scale. A single drop of coke in a bathtub is about 1/10000000 of its volume.

            Fukushima nuclear material leaks are around 1/10000000000000000000 of the total ocean volume (give or take a couple of decimal points).

    • There’s a huge mismatch of scale here. While the nuclear disaster was regionally devastating in a region spanning tens of kilometers in Japan, any detectable heat released from the decay of radioisotopes would have been confined to the immediate surroundings of the stricken plant (i.e. hundreds of meters or less). There’s no question that the event had severe local and regional human and environmental costs, but the direct climate impact of several years of accumulated global fossil fuel emissions is literally millions (or billions) of times greater.

      • inclinejj

        Oh wow we were talking about this today. Actually if you people knew what was at the bottom of the Ocean you would be scared. Thousands of metal 55 gallon drums of toxic waste tossed overboard right off Pacifica. There are two massive marine dumping grounds right off our coast. Plus tens of thousands of fluorescent lighting ballasts were tossed off ships.

        In fact people say the devastation of the atomic blasts dropped to make Japan surrender in World War 2, were hidden by top advisors of the President.

        No one knew any better the ships that were hot for radioactive material were just hosed down at Hunters Point Shipyard for years.

        • Admode (Susanville)

          I’ve also read that detectable levels of cesium have been found in animals such as salmon in alaska.

          • Charlie B

            Thanks. I just finished a (previously delightful) grilled salmon dinner. Garlic mashed with a big artichoke.

          • Alex Besogonov

            Modern mass-spectrometers can detect individual _atoms_. So the word “detectable” doesn’t mean _anything_ – there are also detectable levels of gold and platinum in drinking water.

          • Tuolumne

            I assume you mean cesium 137 which is the primary radioactive version (isotope) of cesium produced by some nuclear reactions. Not all cesium is radioactive, so saying that cesium was detected is a meaningless statement in terms of potential hazards. There’s carbon in your body, but noting that says nothing about whether it’s radioactive or not.

          • inclinejj

            Actually your granite countertop has cesium.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            Thanks, I didn’t know enough about it to realize I needed to be more specific. The article I was referring to talked about high levels of cesium 137 causing cancerous growths in alaska caught salmon. I was going to post a link to the article, but after rereading it I doubt it’s credibility.

          • Admode (Susanville)

            It’s hard to imagine that their wouldn’t be an impact though.

          • Admode (Susanville)
        • shampeon

          The Farallons were dumping grounds for barrels of toxic and nuclear waste, too. Sailors would dump barrels and shoot them so they’d sink….

          • inclinejj

            That could explain all the zombie like people in Pacifica. No wait the Meth does that also.

        • Correct! And let’s not forget all that delicious lead paint! Eleventy billion paint chips from naval activity have probably ended up in those waters as well.

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        Another myth busted!! Thanks for this input!

        • Is it even a myth? When I hear this notion of Fukushima having an impact on the Pacific Ocean, I completely disregard everything that person can or will say. Would you take financial advice from a Walrus? The people spouting this nonsense are so incredibly uneducated or thoughtless to the mechanics, scale, and reality involved, we might as well be learning Quantum Chromodynamics from Trump.
          Poor nuclear, vilified forever, meanwhile molten salt reactors and advanced gas cooled designs are shown to work and not receiving any traction. I blame Joe Q. public who thinks Fukushima causes global warming.

          • jstrahl

            Going just slightly off topic, this is just using some bad analysis on some people’s part as a way to promote nuclear power, a plague in all sorts of ways, as i learned via working within the industry. Won’t play at this end. But like i said, off topic.

          • AN50

            Couldn’t agree more. We could end fossil fuel dependence for electricity once and for all with MSRs and yet the irrational fear continues unabated.

          • shampeon

            I’d say it has more to do with the fact that e.g. Fukushima happened at all and is now a radioactive wasteland that scares the public.

    • T-Paine

      You must never heard of the Pacific Proving Grounds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_Proving_Grounds . You’re really concerned of some radioactive leakage from a nuclear powerplant when they detonated an atom bomb in the pacific ocean?

      • alanstorm

        & don’t forget an underwater nuke test, launched from the USS Agerholm 425 mi Southwest of San Diego in 1962!

  • Phil(ontario)

    What causes high pressure?

    Since surface air pressure is a measure of the weight of the atmosphere above any location, a high pressure area represents a region where there is somewhat more atmosphere overlying it.

    High pressure areas are usually caused by air masses being cooled, either from below (for instance, the subtropical high pressure zones that form over relatively cool ocean waters to the west of Califormia, Africa, and South America), or from above as infrared cooling of winter air masses over land exceeds the warming of those airmasses by sunlight.

    So over the last few years we have had the highest recorded global temperatures on record. No look at Daniel’s illustrations from winters 2013 to 2015. We have abnormally cool waters in the Pacific. We have abnormally cool air over eastern North America. And what is sitting right in the middle? The RRR.

    • Thunderstorm

      Normal pressure at sea level 1,000 mb, go up 3,000 ft it is 700mb, go up to 9,000 ft it is 700mb , go to the moon it is about 170mb. So what is it in the atmosphere that gives it it’s weight? H2O, carbon,etc. Does someone walking on the moon really leave deep foot prints in the soil so close together? Perfect prints with zero moisture? Not on the beach. I think the summer will be hot inland, lots of fog close to the beach areas and the SF area by the Giants Stadium. Big influx of tropical moisture to the Sierras in August, enough to get the streams flowing like last summer.

    • There are actually quite a few other formation mechanisms for high pressure other than the local accumulation of cold air. In fact, Pacific Ocean temperatures in recent years have been at record high levels, so that’s actually not what’s going on here!

      • Phil(ontario)

        If you are talking about the entire Pacific Ocean, then you are correct no argument here. But if your talking about the area directly West of the formation of the RRR, then you are incorrect. The million dollar question is: Did the RRR create these temperature anomalies, or did these temperature anomalies create the RRR. When you look at a MAJOR factor as to what causes high pressure, this is a strong argument for the later.

  • hermit crab

    This is a terrific blog entry. So nice of Daniel to share a scientific paper.

    I haven’t skimmed all of the previous blog entries so forgive me if my dumb questions have already been asked.

    1. Is more study on the way about most of the southern third of the state being in such a stubborn severe drought condition?

    2. I thought the drought started before 2013?

    I am thrilled to be learning all of this, even if it isn’t good news.

    • jstrahl

      It isn’t all bad news, given the finding about “Atmospheric patterns similar to those during California’s wettest winters have NOT decreased in recent decades.”

      • hermit crab

        It seems to me that we have had more drought years here in recent decades…will have to research sometime. And of course in recent years wet hasn’t been very wet.

        • jstrahl

          Well, the writers of this paper did do this very research. You are just overwhelmed by the last 4 or so years, and forgetting a sting of wet years, some very wet ones, including ’97-8 (less than two decades ago, since you are talking about “recent decades.:” The ’90s were more often wet than not, several times VERY wet. First part of the ’80s too.

          • Next Winter will be the true test…

          • jstrahl

            One winter will be the test? I don’t think so.

          • I meant that, I want to see a winter not influenced by El Niño or La Niña. I want to see if we will have a normal Jetstream pattern next winter. But we also may have a La Niña next winter. So who knows….

          • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

            I believe it will to see if the RRR or drought returns without el ninos influence. If we have another bad drought year I think we will be entering a long term drought 🙁

        • Dan the Weatherman

          There have been a lot more dry years since 2000, especially in Socal, than there have been in the last couple of decades prior.

          • jstrahl

            In Berkeley, since 1980, i’ve seen a bunch of the wettest specific months ever, e.g. February ’98, 86, ’00 blew away what came before ’80, a bunch wettest Marches ever, May,….And 24 hour downpours. SoCal is NOT all of California.

        • Ventura Highway

          Hermit. Check out the old timers rain chart for ventura , here :http://vcwatershed.net/fws/specialmedia.htm

        • weathergeek100

          Actually, some of the wettest years on record were in the 90s…..even in SoCal. Specifically: 92/93, 94/95, 97/98. All very wet years. In San Diego, I think the wettest or 2nd wettest January on record was Jan 1995, and of course we all know about Feb 98.

    • FolsomPrisonBlues

      It was the winter of January 2013. I remember us getting pounded in November and December. Then January came and the water just turned off. It was crazy!

    • Tuolumne

      The drought started in fall of 2011 (Tioga Pass was open even after New Year’s), but after the previous winter being so heavy people weren’t really worried yet. I was a little bit freaked out, but had my fingers crossed that this was just a freak incident.

      The winter of 2011-12 was definitely below normal, but 2012-13 started out great in the fall of 2012. It wasn’t until 2013 that the drought really started to hit hard.

      Don’t fall for accounts that measure rainfall by calendar year, like the SF Chronicle did in one drought article a while back. By that measure 2011 and 2012 weren’t a drought.

      However, while early 2011 was very wet so summer 2011 was fine, late 2011 was very dry. Early 2012 was wetter but couldn’t make up the shortfall, so the summer of 2012 was a drought summer.

      Late 2012 was wet but early 2013 (and the whole year of 2013, really) was very dry, so 2013 was again a drought summer but a lot worse. Calendar year 2013 was the driest year ever recorded in most of California, but fortunately it was split between two rainy seasons which helped somewhat.

  • inclinejj

    Actually my sister is almost ready to receive her MBA, I have known and ran across quite a few MBA’s and never knew the tremendous amount of work involved. I know a couple people with PHD’s and can’t really imagine how much work and study is involved.

    My sister had the best study habits of the 3 of us. I would read what was on the test the morning of and pass the class. She would pull an all nighter and study the morning of.

    This is awesome. I have read it over and over again. Thanks for all your hard work and dedication.

  • inclinejj

    See my simple theory of, every time I play Metallica we go into a wet pattern is working again. Listening to the concert from the 2002 Championship Raider game vs the Tennessee Titans.

  • FolsomPrisonBlues

    Looks like another hot one today!

  • mattzweck

    Where i live in Lancaster it was almost about 90 yesterday. This weather not helping my sinuses. keep on getting sinus infections. Hope it does rain soon.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Looks more like a monsoonal inverted trough with the next system.

  • SBMWill

    Whats up with these cut offs coming the next weekend? Possible an inch at the coast in SoCal thats substantial compared with recent.

    Will their be much or any effects in NorCal.

    • Even the Eu is undecided if this is a central CA or SoCal. Far NorCal seems to be out of it. Pretty much fluctuating between 40N and San Diego. 10 days out is too far to pinpoint cut-offs or whatever is forecast.

      • jstrahl

        It’s already rain OD City north of 40N. 🙂

      • Rams (HMB/Truckee)

        But Daniels rain chart above shows all of us (including far NorCal) in on it. Are the individual runs not showing?

        • Patrick McGuire

          GFS runs are consistently showing the Apirl 8 – 10 (or so) system for state wide rain, not just SoCal. It starts in SoCal and goes north quickly, including extreme NorCal

        • Barney

          I wouldn’t worry, the graph Daniel posted above shows Nor Cal as the winners, we just need to remember that anything above SF is irrelevant.

        • I was looking at consecutive runs of the ECMWF 10day.

  • Whittier weather dude

    How are the runs for next week

    • Next two weeks are looking extremely interesting, folks! Will try to have another update before Wednesday.

      • Juggernaut

        Any chance it cools down enough for decent mountain snow instead of rain?

        • Crouching Dallas

          Depends on the region, I think. SoCal mountains might be looking at mostly rain this coming weekend, whereas Mammoth could grab some decent snow above 8,000-9,000 feet, hopefully lowering down to 7ish by Saturday night.

          • Phil(ontario)

            Agreed. Looks like moisture is coming in straight from the south on Friday, but snow levels could lower by Sunday as low pressure moves in from the north. ….
            Wait. Did I just say warm moisture from the south mixing with colder air from the north? Thunderstorms anyone?

          • Pfirman

            You did say that and your name is not Tyler.

      • Patrick McGuire

        Yes it sure is. The GFS runs for the April 8 system are consistent and wet! Love it!

    • Nathan

      Can anyone explain why the tops of mountain ranges alone would be _below_ average in the above forecast?

  • Sfedblog

    I’m a layperson making a general observation. According to this research, the underlying causal factors of the drought are as yet undetermined, though the observed trend towards boom and bust is increasing. How does a model predict it will continue to increase with these X factors? I suppose it is statistically sound to assume that any any point along the trendline that trend is more likely to continue than to diminish, but that is only a game of probabilities.

  • Ventura Highway

    From 1945 to 1951 Ventura averaged about 7inches a year. It was terribly dry. Check out the Old timers rain chart. Its pretty cool: http://vcwatershed.net/fws/specialmedia.htm

    • John Curtis

      Vc watershed is great for historical and current rainfall data

      • On Dre

        If interested the Santa Barbara Channelkeeper “Stream Team” has citizen science based data for the region going back the last decade and half. Lots of site specific data points and some analysis. Good reading if you run out of parties to attend on a saterday night.

        • John Curtis

          I used to volunteer and take water samples for them about a decade ago.

  • Bartshe

    Mammoth Times this week reporting on a recent Inyo National Forest study that estimates 42% of Mammoth area conifer forest will be dead within 15 years due to recent drought stress and record warm winter temperatures. I can post more details later if anyone is interested.

    • Barney

      More room for cement and condos, there’s always an upside.

      • Sfedblog

        Probably not a good idea to build condos on landslide-prone terrain.

        • Tuolumne

          Most of the forested land in the general area (the large Jeffrey pine forest east of U.S. 395) is not steep, not landslide-prone, and not privately owned. (There is a very real chance that the last of these may change if some people get their way and privatize our public lands.)

          This forest is an ecological anomaly created by a partial gap in the high Sierra that allows unusual amounts of precipitation to get over to the east side in a limited area. Mammoth Mountain sits right in this gap and that’s why there’s a ski area there.

      • inclinejj

        In Greece, Developers buy huge tracts of forest land that can not be developed and burn it to the ground. Then they go back slip the planning department some $$ and say well it’s scorched earth can we build here, wink wink, Permit Approved.

        • Charlie B

          Greece is bankrupt. In more ways than one.

          • inclinejj

            So is the United States. 19 trillion in debt.

      • inclinejj

        Little houses of ticky tacky.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Brutal. I’d felt encouraged by the apparent lack of mortality on my last few trips up, but I guess that was from using the Hwy 120 (Yosemite side) graveyard situation as my reference point. Would be interested in additional details, though perhaps save them for a more responsible drinking hour?

      • That side seems to be 60% or more mortality.

    • Admode (Susanville)

      Would be interested in reading the study.

    • tomocean

      Nature abhors a vacuum. It will be interesting to see what will re-colonize those areas. Perhaps the ones that survive will pass on the genes for more drought tolerance.

      • Sublimesl

        Sierra Junipers?

        • Tuolumne

          Maybe. Or perhaps just the sagebrush, antelope brush, etc. which are already interspersed with the pines.

      • jptimmons

        In my experience it’s manzanita…and a lot of it. The house I grew up in was built in a burn scar completely covered by manzanita at an elevation around 2100ft. In Nothern Lassen National Forest we even have manzanita growing where trees were cut down on Eskimo Hill at 6000ft. 🙁

        • Tuolumne

          Depends where you are. The area in question above is in a partial rain shadow of the Sierra and at an elevation of 7000-9000 feet so it tends towards Great-Basin-type shrubs.

  • Some promising words from NWS San Diego in the AFD

    LATER IN THE WEEK…THE WEATHER LOOKS MORE INTERESTING. A MORE
    DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO CROSS THE EASTPAC PUSH ACROSS SOCAL EITHER SAT OR SUN. TIMING DETAILS STILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT…BUT THE PRECIP POTENTIAL LOOKS SIMILAR ON ALL OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GEM/ECMWF/GFS. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM FORECAST TO COME INLAND AT A LATITUDE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO FAVOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA OVER THE NORTH…THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING ONE OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION EVENTS WE HAVE SEEN THIS WINTER.

    • Dan weather maniac

      Go so cal!!! I really want you guys to get a week of 5 – 7 days rain straight with totals in the 2 -3 inch valley and 5 – 7 inch mountain range, kinda situation.

      We’ll take lesser up north of Course, but you all need it down south!

    • Tangocity

      Spring.

    • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

      This morning the chance of rain for Saturday was 70%…now it’s already degraded down to 30%. Great. I expect it to be gone before Wednesday. So Cal can’t get a break.

  • Sfedblog

    I don’t understand this statement:

    “In fact, one of two methods we used in this study suggested that several wet patterns have actually increased in recent decades, while the other suggested little change.”

    Looking back at documented precipitation data, why is it a matter of conjecture as to whether wet patterns have actually increased as one model suggests, but not another?

    • We’re not actually using models in the study–only observational data.

      When we looked directly at precipitation, we found an increase in the number of both very dry and very wet years in California. But this increase did not reach our threshold for statistical significance. When we examined atmospheric pressure patterns, though, they showed an increase as well–and this change was statistically significant. So, we focused on the latter results, even though looking directly at precipitation yields essentially the same answer. The added bonus is that we can now directly answer the question: are patterns like the Triple R occurring more frequently over time?

      • Charlie B

        Are there anomalously lows elsewhere in mid latitudes that seem to be “stuck” in place as a counter to the RRR? (Hudson Bay is quite north…)

      • Sfedblog

        Thank you for your reply, Daniel.

        Pardon my weather-related ignorance, (my wife would object to the caveat) but why do we have prolonged drought conditions (relieved in part this year) if the precipitation decreases have not been statistically significant? Is that because you are observing over a longer period of time and a relatively short term event such as this drought would not fundamentally alter the longer term data given that wetter periods even it out? Or is related to precipitation totals including those over the maritime continent or something else?

        Regarding my use of the word “model” – my mistake. I meant to say the two “methods”, not models.

  • mattzweck

    here in Lancaster almost 90 again. with cirrus clouds moving over and a little breezy.

  • Thirsty Nick (Santa Maria)

    I predict just less than .10″ in SMV this weekend. Maybe more after that. I also predict 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday in parts of the Central Coast. #feedpuddlecachuma

    • shampeon

      Well, facts never seem to deter the kind of conspiracy thinking that says that scientists are getting rich on NSF grants for research supporting anthropogenic climate change.

      It’s not an essentially rational viewpoint. And it’s some weird part of the character of Americans. See: http://harpers.org/archive/1964/11/the-paranoid-style-in-american-politics/

      • There was a time not so long ago I was in that camp.

        • Pfirman

          You use all those ‘p’ words? I kind of resonated with ‘parlous’.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    I predict rain in the near future!!! My visions are vivid! The rains shall return to the golden state within about 5 days time! SoCal will get the most of the action! This will be a prolonged period of storminess lasting for the better half of April!

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      This will really keep the native grasses green into May. Such a change from previous death brown late Springs. I love it!

    • craig matthews(Big Sur)

      Even looks interesting at +72-96 hours out on 18Z, before the cold cores hit after D-5(hopefully). If it was July or August, this 18ZGFS depiction would suggest a cyclonic se flow over the southern half of the state, advecting monsoonal moisture from Mexico/desert sw, interacting with vorticity rotating around tht Low sw of San Diego spawning thunderstorms,….but wait, its April.

  • molbiol

    Based on what the models are showing and what happened last year, here is the forecast for Reno for April 9- 20th and beyond 🙂

    “Partly to mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms”

  • maddogokp

    Hiked Donner Summit Canyon today. Still some big piles of snow but creek is swelling from the melt. Warm day in the 60’s.

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      I drove up 80 this morning, a great sight to see was the South Yuba river running fast and high. Been a few years since ive seen that sight!

      • Pfirman

        Did you notice that Blue Canyon was bare of snow?

  • low snow levels

    Talk about a tast of summer this week looks like highs by wed will be mid too upper 80s too lower 90s in are area. Too Mid 90 too may be 100 in Down in the Bakersfield area ?

    Then talk about a major swich back too showery. Weather come the weekend and cooler temper and may be severe weather? Thanks too the heat we had this week?

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Nice tweet from NWS Reno In Regards Lake Tahoe
    https://twitter.com/nwsreno/status/716781221880041473

    • Yes!!!

    • Wasn’t 1994-95 good year for precip?

      • Tuolumne

        It was a very good year, so I think the NWS got the wrong year.

        • Pfirman

          Getting the wrong year seems to be a theme.

        • hardcort

          NWS got it wrong. Nov 92 was the lowest. There is a continuous chart of Lake levels, taken monthly, at the gatekeepers cabin. I don’t recall when it started but before 92.

      • AlTahoe

        Nov 1992 was the record lowest. Then the winter of 1992-1993 brought it up 3 or so feet. Winter of 1993-1994 sucked so maybe they meant 1994?

      • Dan the Weatherman

        1994-95 was a great year for precip in Socal and Los Angeles received over 20″ that season. That is what this season should have been more like.

    • matt (truckee)

      Do you hapen to know how far before it starts spilling into the Truckee River?

      • Pfirman

        I can’t answer your question, but just driving west on 80 out of Reno today the Truckee was looking pretty healthy. Of course, I had been driving since Montana and looking at every watercourse with an eagle eye and might have been jaded.

        • matt (truckee)

          Yes, the river is flowing good but that is runoff from the snow pack. I have googled around and cannot find the lake level where it will start dumping into the river. I found the “natural rim” at 6223 (currently just below that) and the “maximum permissable level” at 6229, but not the elevation where is actually will start spilling…

          • illingest Bevo!

            When it gets over the natural rim (6223′), it starts flowing out, and it will then add to the flow in the Truckee River- assuming the gates of the dam are open of course. The dam is outside the rim, maybe 50 yards or so down the river. I assume all the other tributaries to the river are flowing pretty well right now, so even though the lake isn’t spilling out, there’s lots of water running through Reno. The lake’s only a few inches below the rim right now, (USGS says it’s 6222.89′: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/uv?site_no=10337000) so it’ll probably start flowing out soon, especially with the current warm weather and rapid snow melt at lower elevations.

          • Pfirman
          • matt (truckee)

            Thanks. For some reason I thought that the “natural rim” was lower than the spillway to the river. Learn something new every day…

  • Atrocalypse

    I could be crazy, but I think solar panels are causing the RRR to become abnormally persistent. Seemed self explanatory to me.

    • Tuolumne

      Solar panels occupy a tiny fraction of the land devoted to good old heat-trapping asphalt.

      • xeren

        Pretty sure he’s just trying to get a reaction out of people

    • thebigweasel

      Yes. You could be crazy.

      • Charlie B

        It appears that the stresses of everyday life impact some people more than others.

    • Thunderstorm

      You been smokin?

      • Atrocalypse

        Might as well have been. Guess I need to stop.

    • T-Paine

      First you say it’s Fukushima, now solar panels? Go troll elsewhere.