Slow-moving atmospheric river may bring flooding to Northern California; generally active pattern to continue statewide

Filed in Uncategorized by on March 9, 2016 4,437 Comments

Recent storminess in the context of California’s ongoing severe drought

The imminent atmospheric river can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands. (NCEP via Scripps)

The upcoming atmospheric river can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands. (NCEP via Scripps)

After an unnervingly quiescent and remarkably warm February, March roared into California like a lion over the past weekend. A quick succession of powerful storms brought a very wide array of inclement weather conditions to the Golden State–from very intense rainfall (and associated modest flooding) and very strong frontal winds (which brought down many trees and caused power outages) in Northern California to bona-fide (and locally damaging) severe thunderstorms across a wide swath of Southern California. Double-digit rainfall totals occurred in orographically-favored spots in the northern part of the state, while several feet of new snow fell at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. As creeks and rivers rose in response to this much-needed rainfall, so too did inflows to some of California’s largest reservoirs in the Sierra Nevada foothills. Folsom Lake, in fact, now has above average water levels to date–and the floodgates on Folsom Dam have been opened to accommodate the additional expected heavy precipitation over the coming week.

Recent and upcoming rainfall is undoubtedly good news in a drought-stricken state. Even if precipitation were to stop falling today, all of California’s major reservoirs are in much better shape than they have been in years (though I’ll be the first to admit that’s a decidedly low bar). Sierra Nevada snowpack, while still below average to date, is quite substantial–and will continue to provide substantial inflow into reservoirs though the spring and early summer months (unlike during recent years). But although increased reservoir water storage will reduce drought-related pressure on most urban and many agricultural water users this summer, it won’t mitigate the tremendous ecological damage that has occurred throughout California’s extensive forests–which have experienced an astonishing degree of tree mortality over the course of our record-breaking drought. Nor will it directly solve the immediate water concerns of those living in certain water districts in Southern California that are dependent on local precipitation, or the long-term groundwater overdraft that continues in the Central Valley. As I discussed in the autumn, the most likely outcome of the powerful El Niño event in the Pacific was to bring partial–but not complete, or necessarily lasting–drought relief to California. What happens over the next month or so will dictate just how much drought relief occurs before the long, dry summer ahead.

 

Slow-moving atmospheric river may bring very heavy precipitation and flooding in NorCal

A respectable storm will affect nearly all of California from late Friday into Saturday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A respectable storm will affect nearly all of California from late Friday into Saturday. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

In the short term, though, there’s certainly a lot more water headed toward California. Another atmospheric river (or plume of concentrated atmospheric water vapor propelled by strong low-level winds) is taking aim at Northern California as I type, and will sag very slowly southward down the coast through late Friday. This particular atmospheric river exhibits an unbroken corridor of enhanced water vapor that can be traced all the way back to the Hawaiian Islands–which qualifies this event as a modest “Pineapple Express.” Atmospheric water vapor in this atmospheric river will approach all-time record values for the month of March (as did last weekend’s), so a juicy airmass will certainly be in place.

The main concern over the next few days is that this very moist plume will stall out over some portion of Northern California on Friday, potentially leading to very heavy precipitation accumulations. This is of particular concern given that soils in this region are already saturated after recent rains, and rivers are running high. Additional heavy precipitation will likely lead to flooding of at least some degree–and this could start to extend to larger rivers in addition to smaller streams if this precipitation band stalls as much as is currently forecast. As is often the case with atmospheric rivers in California, just how much flooding occurs will depend on just how persistent the precipitation actually is in vulnerable watersheds. Also, the potential exists for a pretty extraordinary north-south gradient through Friday afternoon, with some model solutions bringing more than 6 inches of rainfall to the northern San Francisco Bay Area while San Jose–just 30-50 miles away–sees almost nothing! Given these uncertainties, the National Weather Service has already posted Flood Watches for a wide swath of Northern California, and these may be expanded further.

Very heavy precipitation is once again expected in Northern California over the next few days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Very heavy precipitation is once again expected in Northern California over the next few days. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

Everyone in California will get wet by late Friday, though, as a modest surface cyclone approaches the coast and allows the atmospheric river to finally slide down into Southern California. This late Friday system probably won’t be quite as strong as this past weekend’s in northern California, but could actually be stronger than the weekend storm was in Southern California. A period of heavy rainfall and gusty winds will occur throughout most of California around the time of cold frontal passage, and a few thunderstorms are once again possible.
Yet another (slightly weaker) system will move into California by Sunday, bringing another round of widespread precipitation. Precipitation amounts (and snow levels) will be lower, though any additional rainfall by that point could cause at least minor flooding problems.

 

Prospects good for active pattern during the remainder of March

A stronger subtropical jet stream may favor Southern California for precipitation toward mid-March. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A stronger subtropical jet stream may favor Southern California for precipitation toward mid-March. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

California will see a multi-day break in the precipitation by early next week (and, if current forecasts hold, it should be a needed break from the heavy precipitation!). There are some signs, though, that wet weather will likely return once again by the middle of the month. Model ensembles  suggest that a strong ridge will develop over British Columbia, producing a “Rex Block” over the West Coast. In this case, it appears that California may actually be in a favorable position to see an enhanced low-latitude storm track as the subtropical jet stream “undercuts” the ridge to the north. Southern California would likely fare well in such a scenario, though it remains to be seen if it actually comes to pass. It’s worth noting that decaying El Niño events can lead to very active late winter and spring periods in California, and hopefully that’s where this year is headed.

Stay tuned!

A "Rex Block" pattern may develop along the West Coast late next week. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

A “Rex Block” pattern may develop along the West Coast late next week. (NCEP via tropicaltidbits.com)

 

© 2016 Weather West

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  • Brian

    We are approaching the end of the 2015-16 rainy season. Well, the unusual strong El Niño did not do much as what so many thought would happen. However, Howard made a great point about solar sunspot min to take note of for the coming years:
    http://mammothweather.com/2016/03/28/cold-upper-low-over-ca-today-bring-gusty-winds-and-a-band-of-light-snow-through-mono-county-later-this-afternoon-into-this-evening-unsettled-weather-to-continue-through-wednesday-then-fair-and-war/

    • Bob G

      I believe Daniel has dismissed the solar theory

      • Brian

        He indeed did; yet it has always played a very vital role in earth’s climate/weather that can never be dismissed!

        • AlTahoe

          He did, but even Nasa has said they have found out some interesting info. It looks like Solar cycles alone can account for up to a 20% increase or decrease in Tropical convection in the Pacific.
          http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2013/08jan_sunclimate/

          • Pfirman

            The following is from the link and germane.

            “In other words, solar activity felt in the upper atmosphere can, through
            a complicated series of influences, push surface storm tracks off
            course.”

        • jstrahl

          He has dismissed in it terms of being an important factor in global warming, not in terms of having any influence upon specific weather patterns. That was my understanding.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      Damn, Howard threw in the towel for SoCal spring storm prospects.

      Im surprised he’s calling it considering the lack of model success this time of year. I think after this inside slider exists is when things could still get interesting, especially if that omega block stretches out further north. No faith in anything past 4-5 days right now.
      Tyler, you with me? Keep the faith everyone…one more widespread 1-2″ storm for ALL of California…

  • mattzweck

    Here some cloud pic.

  • 310weatherguy

    Looks like we might get a drizzle after all.

    • Bombillo1

      Bump that with the Snoop Dog Shizzelater.

  • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

    Beautiful spring cloudy weather today!

  • William_LeGro

    OMG! It rained in NE Los Angeles! I counted the drops – 37, or it might have been 38.

    Alleviates the drought a bit – enough to make craters in the dust on the cars, they look real nice now.

    So that happened.

    • Sunchaser

      Not even enough for dust control here in Eagle Rock this morning…lol

    • 310weatherguy

      Im exactly in Montecito hieghts according to google maps and had a nice rain fall just was a short one. But was raining good for 10+ minutes.

      • William_LeGro

        I’m in Silver Lake, also in the hills just 2 miles from you, and we got almost zip. About as many microclimates in LA as there are neighborhoods.

  • The Omega Zit. A sign of a digamma drought?

    • alanstorm

      Geez. Giant octopus. Glad that wasn’t here in Feb. Oh wait a sec……

    • William_LeGro

      I’ve never held back from revealing my ignorance, so…could someone explain what I’m seeing here? To me, brown means desert, and…well, that’s all I got (and it’s gotta be wrong).

      I mean, I don’t even know what to google or wiki. Like, Omega Zit got me a You Tube video of some guy’s “huge zit that was behind me ear for like a year.” (No, I didn’t look.)

      • Pretty much, the brown is the area of High Pressure over us and the blue is an inside slider bringing us major wind right now. Hope that helped.

        • William_LeGro

          Thanks – it helps. So is that huge mushroom (or upside-down uvula) moving east? And is the dark blue to its southwest a low pressure system that might bring us rain? Which I don’t see in extended forecasts.

          What is the magenta area? Warm El Nino water? Except that if the brown is high pressure, then I guess all the colors represent some kind of atmospheric condition, not ocean temps.

          “Digamma” – could be mathematical, or an adjective like ginormous…???

          • 1) no
            2) yes it is and no it won’t
            3a) SST’s are not represented here.
            3b) http://weatherfaqs.org.uk/node/142
            4) sorta… more like a mark or stigma of our drought.
            Good questions…
            I forgot to post link
            http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

          • William_LeGro

            1) The high is stationary? As stationary as the RRR? No, couldn’t be – must be temporarily stationary. So dry weather from Washington to Alaska? In March?

            Another episode in “The Weather Has Stopped Making Sense”. Global warming > climate change was never so vivid and unsettling for me until I found this site. Seeing climate change in action on a large scale.

          • It is pretty much showing wind and direction indicated by the black lines. It is not the ocean temps.

      • Darin

        The arrows are very telling. On each of the lines is hash, 1/2 hash = 5kts, full hash = 10 knots, filled in triangle = 50kts. If you completely ignore the colors for a moment, you can see wind directions. No arrows are indications of high pressure especially when they are near other other arrows pointed in a different direction. Notice along 140W between 40N and 60N. It’s a more informative map than a bunch of H and L.

        • William_LeGro

          Illuminating. I learned something. Thanks. The hashes slant in the direction of the winds? I’m inferring that from the winds in the Hawai`i latitudes – trades blowing from the ENE. Actually by the time they hit the Islands they’re more easterly, if I’m right about the slant/direction. Strong, too – flying to Hawai`i on March 1 we had 100mph headwinds, gas-eaters – most other flights I’ve been on they’re about 50-75mph.

          • Darin

            I’m sorry I didn’t discriminate the shaft versus the hash. The shaft part of the arrow is the wind direction. In looking it up, it apparently isn’t called a hash but rather a “barb”. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wind_barbs.gif

          • William_LeGro

            So I got it exactly backwards. Which makes sense, and also makes me wrong about the headwinds to Hawai`i. Obviously those aren’t trades – trades would be tailwinds going to the Islands. So the hashes are like the feathers on an arrow. At 35-40K feet those are the strong headwinds. Trades must be lower-level winds – never knew that. Thanks again.

    • SlashTurn (Santa Barbara)

      You’d think if heights continue to progress north, we’d get a good breakthrough underneath? This had been showing for a while on every GFS run until last nights 00Z. Could come back…
      Im still sticking with NAM for everything…

      • STJ can’t punch through. What else is new? The whole forecast of a break through or undercutting has trended weaker for a week now. It’s off the table IMO through mid -April. If I am wrong I will wear the squidward loser avatar, SoCal will get something measurable but not noteworthy. Bartshe may have some snow pics.

        • craig matthews(Big Sur)

          Yeah, when its easier for Troughs/Lows to move into Ca from the north around the periphery of the GOA High, and even ne underneath the GOA High, rather then energy w/ Lows undercutting the GOA. That speaks to the lack of sustained consolidated jet forcing between Hawaii and Ca. I’m beginning to think that any system we get this spring will come later on in April, or better yet May, when pacific energy weakens enough to allow any northern stream troughs/Lows to drop further west off the coast rather then over the great basin. It’s like clockwork right now…..every northern stream Low that is projected to cut off off CA coast beyond hour 192 becomes and inside slider, and every western stream Low that is projected to move into CA beyond hour 192 ends up being lifted ne up into the Pacnw. Every time I see a Low off SFO out at hour 192, default it goes inside slider or pacnw is a given. When is this going to stop???

          • Whittier weather dude

            Somebody hates us in so cal

          • craig matthews(Big Sur)

            This is torture, especially for you guys in socal.

          • Thanks for clarifying. My brain doesn’t work well when I’m REALLY frustrated. I see 9 month CFS forecasts for Dec ’16 and 9 month precip forecasts for same and…and now I know I’m insane for believing them.

            Someone did post yesterday about the terrible drought in Texas a few years back and before that in Georgia. It seemed like it would never rain again there.(or get a semblance of normal).

          • craig matthews(Big Sur)

            Well, my comment was written in pure frustration lol. I was thinking bout that comment re Texas drought. If I recall correctly, very severe drought occurred in the Southeast in the mid to late 2000’s, which people thought would never end, but did. Then severe drought in the Gulf states over to Texas which seamed to have no end, up until recently. Hopefully our turn next. On another note, I wonder why El Nino brought drought busting precip to Chile and not us. Maybe it was the fact that El Nino forcing was more sustained and consistent from latter summer up through October with no MJO interference?? .

          • ^^ Your last sentence.
            It would be interesting to see if there were hints in early October though. MJO was scary screaming here comes Godzilla El Nino to rescue CA’s drought from July-mid-October. If that was the signal Dec onward I have a gut feeling we’d be in Tyler’s kayaks. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/88cc403693952099ac50899b8ae9c414d73ee4e9fb3aefff1ea9466546256335.gif

          • Dan the Weatherman

            That is a good question. This pattern seems to be repeating too much as of late with little to no variation.

          • craig matthews(Big Sur)

            It crazy. And now, here we are at the end of one of the strongest El Nino’s on record, and once again a highly amplified ridge is located up off northern B.C/ GOA, and still, the pacific jet is unable to undercut the GOA ridge and send socal some storms. Very strange to see this year after year, and now, even with the +PDO and strong El Nino.

  • Flunking_retirement

    Well, were up to a 30% chance today, tonight, tomorrow and tomorrow night. So, . . 30 x 4 = 120% chance of at least a drizzle between now and Wednesday, no? So ends The Great El Nino of 2016.

    • Martin (Santee)

      I’ll take whatever I can get, BTW last year on this date it was 91 degrees in Santee! Give me 60’s with light sprinkles over 90’s please :o)

    • Neil Bhatt

      I don’t think that is how probability works =)

      • Flunking_retirement

        Oh darn. :>/

    • DML

      Out with a whimper.

  • Pfirman

    After an overcast, quiescent day yesterday the north wind is back with a vengeance in lower Sacramento Valley. No lambs in sight.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Drizzled so hard last night I could hear it at one point around 1AM, picked up .01″.

  • molbiol

    The inside slider that was supposed to only drop 1-2in of snow here in Reno has now deposited 5X that amount. Usually the valleys get more snow in these setups than the sierra mountains

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    Nothing in the rain gauge from the drizzle this am. Hopefully, with the cyclonic flow, some sun breaks and a deep 6k marine deck, I can squeeze out something before this ends tonight. It just so hard to stay positive waiting for rain knowing full well we’re at the end of our “rainy” (?) season.

    • MoonWatcher

      I’d put a fork in it!

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Very very strong nnw winds just knocked down some redwoods on HWY 1 in Big Sur and closed the HWY for a bit. Apparently a car was struck and hopefully no one was hurt. Hopefully I can get back home tonight.

    • I’m guessing the redwoods are doing okay down there in their native habitat? I’ve always seen some stressed ones down your way though. They love having their roots in moist loamy soil and a good dose of summer fog.

      • craig matthews(Big Sur)

        They’re looking better then they have since 2011. Some that died are sprouting new shoots out of their trunks half way up the tree. Oaks are looking full and healthy looking up Carmel Valley way too.

        • There’s a few oaks here that aren’t looking so hot but the rest seem unscathed. I’ve never lived in such clay soil before. I got tired of using a maddox and bought a jackhammer for gardening… LOL seriously not kidding.

          • Pfirman

            Now all you need is a cloud seeder.

  • Whittier weather dude

    What a joke again. Light rain made my car dirty again that’s all.

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    just checked my cam in Truckee-snow is falling heavy and it looks like 80 has been closed. Winds have been cold and blowing all day long in the East Bay where I am.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Either a small Low, or lobe of vorticity west of Tahoe is moving sse down along the foothills. NWS is talking some afternoon convection on the east side of the valley and foothills from this feature. If a deformation zone forms on the nne side of this feature, could be real nice snow totals on the east side of the sierra crest esp south of Reno down to Tom’s place.

  • Mark T.

    The difference in conditions between I80 and 50 in the Sierra right now is pretty striking.

    • AlTahoe

      Pretty much been like this all winter. Lol

      • shampeon

        At this point, I feel this is just to mess with you specifically, Al.

        • AlTahoe

          I am already in Mountain Biking mode since my new Carbon wheel set showed up Friday. At this point the quicker it melts the better. Maybe next year will be the year we finally break 100″ of snow for the first time since 2011? Are normal used to be 140″ a season and now it is around 30-70″ a season,

          • matt (truckee)

            Yup. My new tires/chains/etc. arrived Saturday. Just waiting for a snowy day to get out to the garage and get the bikes tuned up….oh wait…that would be today.

          • AlTahoe

            Corral trial should be melted out by this weekend here on the South shore and then maybe another week of warm temps to dry it out.

  • Thunderstorm98

    Very windy in Santa Maria. It has been windy here at least 8 days in a row!

  • click

    Very windy up in the high desert today, to the point of being full on dust storm in Adelanto (out DML’s way). A couple drops of mist blowing around closer to the pass, but probably due to the humidity rather than falling out of clouds.
    While I was in Adelanto, I came cross some pics from 2008 of a big snowstorm. Hope this starts happening more often here. Sorry for low quality pics.

    • DML

      Yeah that was winter storm “Frona” it was great. Winter storm warning night before with a forecast of 4-8 inches and we ended up getting 18. Snowed for 24 hours straight without stopping. The Drifts in my driveway were up over my knees. Oh the good old days.

  • matt (truckee)

    The unexpected snow is finally slowing down here in the shire…just shy of 8″. I was expecting an inch or less. Pleasant end-of-season surprise. Pic attached.

    • Crouching Dallas

      Heyo! Overperforming storms have been in short supply the past few years, glad to see that you guys did well. Hoping that a surprise band or two sets up over Mammoth this evening, per Craig’s thoughts below.

    • AlTahoe

      Wow 8″ is pretty impressive. I can see the snow clouds on the North shore but nothing so far here in the South Shore.

      • matt (truckee)

        As sad as this may sound, I think this ties for 3rd place in terms of single snow events this year here in the banana belt.

        • AlTahoe

          That would also have been my 3 largest of the season had it snowed today 🙂
          I am starting to believe the old timers that say it doesn’t snow at lake level anymore. Even the banana belt region averages over a 125″ a season. This is the worst 4 year stretch of snow at lake level since records have been kept.

  • craig matthews(Big Sur)

    Xerophobe, looks like some convection over by you, or Hollister area?

    • Yeah I peeked out to look south and it looks juicy. Radar has it, too.

  • Thunderstorm98

    NW winds 34 mph and gust 43 mph! Its very windy!

  • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

    Here is a picture via the Caltrans webcams of a semi stalled at the top of Brockway Summit on Hwy 267. Truckee PD reporting it’s pretty much snowed all day.
    https://twitter.com/CaltransDist3/status/714558148174962688/photo/1

    • maddogokp

      It’s a mess out there. There were a few unlucky spin outs heading east on old 40 this afternoon. I’ve got about 6″ in Glenshire.

    • matt (truckee)

      OK – so now I am getting depressed. Tell me there is a silver lining in this.

      • RandomTreeInSB

        Uh… People will innovate new flavors of ice cream due to higher demand.

      • malnino

        That will occur to you when, 10 years from now, you’re sipping margaritas and catching rays on a warm, sunny beach in Alaska ÷)

    • AlTahoe

      Did the Antarctic show the same anomalies during their Winter season? It would be weird if it only was showing up in the northern hemisphere no?

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I have a feeling this is one of the reasons Socal has been so dry in recent years.

  • mattzweck

    Here in socal Lancaster area very windy. Lots of dust and dirt blowing around. And partly cloudy.

  • Thunderstorm

    Maybe hail but showers for sure in the eastern part of the bay area. Most everyone oblivious to what is coming late this afternoon (except those on this weather blog). Snow for the Hamilton range? Yep!

  • megaranation

    The CFS has just given up its optimism for California precipitation in the month of April. A dramatic change of tune… yikes. Especially considering the accuracy of this model late in immediately preceding months.

    • inclinejj

      Nice I am in Sac today. Just signed on for the first time. Looks like the Sierra’s might get some thunder bumpers later.

  • Dan the Weatherman

    There was some light rain here in Orange early this morning, otherwise it has been mostly cloudy and somewhat windy.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Ahhhh yes, the cold winds from the inside slider have finally made it to the Ventura County coast. These are chilly winds with really abrupt change in knots with crazy gusts every 5-10 minutes.

  • Joey B.

    Surprise shower just popped up here in Martinez. Coming down pretty hard now

  • mattzweck

    Here somemore pics from Lancaster. Storm moving in. Windy.

  • AlTahoe

    Skies have opened up and it is snowing nice fat flakes. Not really sticking but still pretty to watch.

  • shampeon

    Suddenly pouring in Walnut Creek. The wife biked to work this morning. Ooops.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    What an interesting system we have today. Looks like some thunderstorms could fire if they get the right dynamics out in Mojave. Snowfall is looking good so far for the Sierra’s. Northern and Central SJV along with the Bay Area are also having a little more juice to fire off some convective showers this afternoon.

    • Pfirman

      It’s weird. I never before had a day start with strong north wind and end with showers and no wind. Lower Sac Valley.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        This sure is a strange little system isn’t it?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Good view out of Fresno of those puffy cumulus.

  • yenlard
    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      00z is a hell of outlier… Hope this changes back to the good trend…

      • 06z CFS reigns in the yellow a little.
        06z GFS April 12th is a maybe, again…

        • Pfirman

          Reins, although it would be fantastic if the yellow reigns, as in really rains.

    • DML

      Unfortunately, can’t say it’s too surprising anymore. Appears to be the norm this season.

    • RandomTreeInSB

      This have been a trend since yesterday. I hope it’s just the spring predictability barrier at work. If not, then this season’s pretty much over.

  • hardcort

    I’m hearing reports of 12″ at Northstar so far, much more than expected

  • Barney

    Dumping in Tahoe City. When I left Truckee a few hours ago I’d say we had at least a few inches, anxious to see what I got at Donner Lake when I get home. Nice sneaker storm.

  • alanstorm

    Wow! Decent anvil over Concord!

    • rob b-Truckee/East Bay

      looks like someone was driving down Clayton Rd! Can see that same cloud moving over Mt Diablo right now.

      • alanstorm

        I was

    • jakobdrafter

      Thanks for the pic. I used to live off Clayton road. Sort of fun seeing it as a surprise.

  • Bob Anderson

    Localized showers in Modesto.

    • Bob G

      I am downtown Modesto right now. No showers but some dark clouds overhead.

  • We are still in par boil for SSTA, yet look at IO, S China Sea and Baja and Central America and…7 day change

    • yenlard

      Is that LA Nina starting at 120w

      • low snow levels

        Yep

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      I also found this interesting…

      • RSpringbok

        So the ensemble is predicting a weak “echo” El Nino of about +1 deg C next January? Has that ever happened?

      • Unbiased Observer

        I want El Nino gone and I want La Nina now.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    FWIW and it’s not worth almost anything… But I find it very interesting that the CFSv2 is keen on a much much wetter autumn this year. In fact October is looking phenomenal. Also to add to that, would anybody else shed some light on autumn’s during La Niña? From my memory the days would get colder and cloudy days would be more abundant. Halloween would usually get a colder system or around that date. Also IMO La Niña winters actually feel like the real deal winter. The 00z was an outlier in this very very long range trend, either way don’t take it so seriously and the 12z was more in tune with the wetter trend. Once again, take these graphics with a grain of salt. We still have a hell of a summer to get through.

    Also some more La Niña questions I have… What are the chances we could see a La Niña bigger than the one back in 1973-’74 (Strongest La Niña episode)? Can anybody in here reflect on the winter of 1973-’74?

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      12Z & 00Z I had mentioned. Sorry internet issue.

      • Dan Vieira (West SFV)

        December looks even better…but…this is 7-9 months away. I’ve yet to see a 7-9 day forecast that panned out! 😉

        • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

          True that, true that!

    • Bob G

      I hope CFSv2 is right about this coming autumn but I have little faith in forecasts this far out. I don’t see a real strong La Nina forming this year. Based on what I’ve read so far, I see weak or moderate one forming.

      • low snow levels

        Can wait for cold snaps and low snow levels In fall of 2016

        • Bob G

          I hope that happens and not a dry year overall

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Yep, that’s what it looks like now that I’m “digging” into the models and records.

        • Bob G

          That also seems to be what various weather people like Michael Ventrice think is going to happen

      • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

        Same here, didn’t the models show a wet febuary lol?

        • Bob G

          Yea, up until the last week of January then the CFSv2 flipped dry

          • Brian

            That is why I have stayed away from relying on long range models.

          • Bob G

            Ok to look just take with a grain of salt

      • Brian

        According to the latest Scripps, more likely than not we will have a weak El Niño event come next winter.

        • Bob G

          Maybe but I don’t see it. More likely ENSO Neutral or weak La Nina

          • Brian

            Oops, I meant weak La Niña. I don’t think we will have ENSO neutral. In fact, years past, the last 150yrs, So. Cal and the whole state in general have had much wetter winters during either ENSO neutral or weak La Niña winters. Also, it’s important to keep in mind that Solar Cycles plays a vital role too which has always affected earth’s weather/climate.

    • jstrahl

      In Berkeley in ’73-4, October pretty dry, November historical, over 11 inches of rain, a touch below normal in December, fairly dry January, a bit dry February, very wet March, and extremely wet April, finished with nearly the same total rainfall as the El Nino influenced ’72-3 season.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        Wow, thanks for the info, my grandparents from the pacific palisades always mention the early 70s went from drought to crazy deluge. Is this true?

        • jstrahl

          ’71-2 season was quite dry. But this wasn’t a multi year thing. ’68-9 was way above average, an ENSO year. ’69-70 had a very wet December and January, enough to make the season as a whole above average. And ’72-3 was a deluge, as i mentioned. So “drought” is not really that accurate a description. Not sure of LA re ’69-79, though i know ’68-9 was a deluge there.

          • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

            Hmm, I’ll have to ask them again. Very interesting hearing about the past ENSO episodes that I couldn’t be around for. Being so young amongst some of you who have lived through decades is really a privilege and I am always interested in hearing about the past seasons of our state.

        • Dan the Weatherman

          1971-72 was very dry in Socal, with about 6.5″ for the season in downtown Los Angeles. The vast majority of that rain fell in December and only a quarter of an inch fell for the remainder of the winter. Talk about a dismal January-March period!

      • Tuolumne

        Similar experience farther south in the East Bay. March and April were amazing! April had cold rain and sleet showers out of cold popcorn skies, and felt far more like February or March. Those two months bailed out that winter and gave it one of the better finishes I’ve seen.

        • jstrahl

          Berkeley got over 2 inches of rain in one storm, i think it was either April 2nd or 3rd. Not sure about “bailed out the winter.” given that at least in Berkeley, we got about a half season’s worth just in November.

      • honzik

        Question: My father tells the story of how my grandparents visited us from Montana for a week in May to experience sunny California weather, only to have it rain for the entire week. They got one day of sun before they returned. I’m guessing it would have been the late sixties +/- 5 years. Would you have an idea what year that was?

        • jstrahl

          Nothing like that between ’65 and ’75 in Berkeley record. May ’57 was very wet, over 3.5i inches, 1.99 in one day, so could that be it?

  • low snow levels

    Weather W do you think are storm season is over? Dos not look good on the GFS for the 1st two weeks of April. I really think we may be heading in too summer early this year by the way weather W how dos are summer look and what’s skip and head in to MAY has MAY can be down right hot

  • Dan weather maniac

    Brief downpour in Orinda reported by the wife!!!

    Here’s the cloud buildup over the hills from the office…

    • jstrahl

      Got about a minute of drops in central Berkeley, right as i got home after biking from a friend’s place, around 4:15PM.

    • Charlie B

      Nice office view.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)
  • Charlie B

    Sitting at LAX waiting for flite to Reno. Checked weather. They say some areas of town received over a foot of snow. It is also the third highest “late season” snow in Reno since 1937.

  • J Tang

    Will it rain??? San Jose North.
    Edit: it’s raining/sprinkling.

  • J Tang

    More edit: it’s raining hard for about 10 min. San Jose. I think the end is approaching soon. It’s my outdoor table getting wet by rain coming from the north.

  • Nate Wire

    Flakes on Mount Hamilton, hopefully a little accumulation. If this is it for the season, it would be nice to end with a little snow.

    • Nate Wire

      Yep, coming down nicely but probably will end soon. Oh well.

  • Bill

    Regarding Shasta and Oroville water releases. Curious why Folsom started releases to keep around 300K of headroom for flooding, yet Shasta and Oroville started their releases in the past week or so with around 500K headroom? It based on drainage area, other factors?

    • Darin

      One of the factors was cold water for the salmon. Instead of opening the power inlets, they were blowing the top warmer water off through the flood gates. Totally random theory: the water temp and requirements for ToC coincided at the point that happened to be 500k headroom.

  • J Tang

    That was an unexpected 15min of rain/shower in SJ/Milpitas. The sun is out now and rain has stopped.

  • Craziness!

  • Barney

    7″ here today which is relatively impressive considering how hard it is to accumulate during the day with the spring sun angle. My wife reports quite a bit of snow in Reno today at work. Looking at radar they might be in for more and with the sun going down there could be more accumulation.

  • click

    Crazy wind here still, spawned this awesome cloud wave train. Never seen that here before, they really do break like waves

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Quite windy in Van Nuys.. The air has a bite to it.
    Getting chilly, no rain yet.. Lots of dark clods to my north and east all day over the san Gabriel mountains and more clouds over the LA basin to the south.. Partly to mostly cloudy here all day after a very cloudy start this morning.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      Yea winds just got erratic about 15 mins ago!

  • DML

    The wind has been insane over here too, temps feel like they’re dropping too. At least there’s a little bit of a “wintery” feel to it. Guess we better enjoy it while we can since we’ll probably be dealing with sweltering heat sooner rather than later.

  • hermit crab

    It’s really cooled down here in Carpinteria. The wind gusts are tossing things around in the yard.

  • RSpringbok

    A bit off-topic but interesting from UCAR regarding the Pacific Extreme Pattern: “Ocean temps predict U.S. heat waves 50 days out, study finds”
    http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/20160/ocean-temps-predict-us-heat-waves-50-days-out-study-finds

    • DML

      Great, and the hits just keep on coming.

  • WarmEpoch4California

    Got a lil bit of drizzle in OC and now it’s cold and clear. Looks like the next several days are forecast to be dry with a warming trend. I don’t know if there will be any more “wintery” type systems so let’s start thinking about the upcoming summer; will it be an active monsoon and EPAC season last summer?

  • click

    Last pic from me tonight, right around sunset a lenticular cloud formed over the big bear area. The pic just doesn’t do it justice, it had hundreds of tight layers that were lit up.
    Also, over the last week there has been huge and bright sun dogs almost every evening. Gives me a little reminder that there is still moisture and cold air up there. Last winter i only remember seeing one.

    • Zephyr (Crestline)

      Nice one, click! We came home from Monterey today down the 5, surviving first crazy winds on the Peninsula, a blinding dust storm just west of Bakersfield, then a quick downpour in Lancaster. When we emerged from that, we saw your very same lenticular cloud as we came in on the 138. I wanted to take a picture of it too, but by then the windshield was too dirty and we were too tired to stop. Glad someone got it anyway!

  • Bob G

    Rained in both Newman and Modesto. Just a quick shot

  • Flunking_retirement

    Man it was touch and go on the 5 South this afternoon around Chula Vista. Yes! There was so much water coming down. It got so bad at one point , the rain sensor on the wipers kicked in! Startled the daylights out of me. Why there must have been several hundred little specs of water all over the windshield.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      The horror, the horror……lol.

  • weathergeek100

    According to Howard at mammothweather.com, THAT’S ALL FOLKS, especially for SoCal! It was quite the failure of a winter. Extreme NorCal did well with some decent drought reduction in the Shasta Area. Bay Area did…okay….still below avg overall but ok I suppose. SoCal….well, we know the answer to that – absolute miserable failure, even worse than last year.

    A look at the models show nothing for the foreseeable future. Cut-off low season seems to be skipped this year. Of course things can change. We have a few weeks left. We can be hopeful for another quick widespread inch of rain in April but I’m predicting this is near the end.

    Will it rain next year? There’s the potential for a strong La Nina so…..probably not. Or it could fail to bring the expected conditions like El Nino did this year (which may mean rain for us) but I seriously wouldn’t rule out another drought year.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      I can sum up this El Nino in Socal with two words: EPIC FAIL!

      • WarmEpoch4California

        On the bright side, last SUMMER delivered quite well with July through September rainfall!. Cross your fingers and hope for another active summer!

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I am hoping for another active summer! I was very impressed with the summer rains we had down here last summer, but I was very unimpressed by this last winter.

          • redlands

            July 2015 was the wettest Ive recorded– beat the previous record by almost 4-times — August was bone dry — however September 2015 was the wettest ive recorded – July 2015 being the wettest between the two months

      • DML

        I agree, didn’t have much confidence in it after December either. Then when February’s heat wave started I knew it was dead for us here in the south.

      • redlands

        I agree with u Dan !!! — I was saying if we don’t get bout 3-5 inches between November and December 2015 — we wouldn’t have a killer wet season — we had little over 1-inch — all the killer years in those 2 months Nov/Dec we had 3-5 inches combined — not this season — — it was over when we left December 2015

      • jstrahl

        So, still insisting that November/December rainfall is influenced a great deal by El Nino? 🙂

        • Dan the Weatherman

          I believe the weather patterns in an El Nino year turn active a bit earlier than January (whether or not it is El Nino enhanced), and that November and December are more active when we have a moderate to strong El Nino. I don’t mean that November and December provide the deluges that are usually experienced in the heart of winter (Jan-Mar), but a more active pattern usually starts during that time period with occasional moderate storms and strong Santa Ana winds at times. This last fall was just way too calm on both fronts, and an inactive fall in Socal often leads to a delayed start to the rainy season or a very dry winter.

          • jstrahl

            So how does El Nino influence November/December rainfall? What’s the mechanism?

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I really don’t know. The pattern probably begins to set up around this time of year before peaking in the winter. It just something I have observed in recent El Nino episodes with occasional storms in November and December before the real action starts either in January or February.
            Downtown Los Angeles only recorded .01″ in November 2015, and .57″ in December 2015. Normally in a significant El Nino, these amounts are quite a bit higher, but not up to the amounts often seen during the wettest winter months.

    • StormHiker

      If we can’t depend on a strong El Nino to bring rain, then I don’t see why we can depend on a strong La Nina to bring further drought.

      • Dan the Weatherman

        Some of our wetter winters (near to above average rainfall) in Socal at least in the greater L.A. area since 2000 have actually been moderate La Nina years: 2000-01 (above average), 2005-06 (near average rainfall), 2007-08 (also near average or possibly slightly below), and of course 2010-11 (well above average). The only three wetter seasons that were El Ninos were 2002-03 (above average), 2004-05 (much above average), and 2009-10 (above average). The rest of the years were well below average and were a mixture of ENSO neutral, weak El Ninos and weak La Ninas, and of course this year’s strong El Nino (El Flopo).

        • Azmordean

          Yeah I’ll take a Nina at this point. Anything to cool down the warm bathtub that is the Pacific and perhaps, hopefully, start to normalize our weather patterns a little bit.

  • Quags, get down here. Camp out in a dumpster with Muzik if you must, just get down here. 14 degrees all day. You know what that means. Walking around it’s like its not even there…

  • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

    From the NWS (MTR) AFD long term:

    FOR A WHILE THE LONG RANGE MODELS WERE HINTING AT SOME POSSIBLE UNSETTLED WEATHER BY NEXT WEEK BUT LATEST ECMWF TRENDS HAVE SHIFTED THE MAIN STORM TRACK NORTH WITH THE 240 HOUR EURO SHOWING A STRONG 588 DM HIGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CFS MODEL HAD BEEN HINTING AT POSSIBLE PRECIP LATER IN APRIL BUT HAVE NOTICED THE LATEST TRENDS ARE LOOKING DRIER.

    Well folks, looks like the last vestiges of hope for a wet April are looking slimmer and slimmer.

    • Dan the Weatherman

      Why is it that it seems that every high that builds into the eastern Pacific is 588 DM or higher? Those are strong ridges!

    • inclinejj

      It’s not April until Friday.

  • John Curtis

    Well…. It looks like El Niño was a bust. And this is across the board. An average nor cal winter does not make El Niño a success. If anyone says it does, then they have clearly changed El Niño expectations after the fact.

    • mosedart (SF)

      Ok

    • Boots

      But John what about the global affects of this Godzilla vs Megalon Monster El Niño. Come on John el Ninos a global phenomenon. Think about it John… Ohh yeah that’s right this site is called Weather West a California weather discussion… Good point John, sorry for overacting.

      • inclinejj

        You know if we received 250% of normal rainfall/snowfall we would all faced with massive flooding and incredable devastation.

    • inclinejj

      Curtis, you would complain if they hanged ya, in Old Hangtown, with a new gold plated rope!

      Old Hangtown is Placerville CA.

      • Phil(ontario)

        He is just mad his GUT model didn’t pan out.

    • Someone else

      Can you hand the reigns back over to River Man for a while please, he seemed to have a little more perspective.
      Perhaps another vision quest is in your immediate future!

  • Robin White
  • yenlard

    The 6z must be hallucinating….two statewide storms next week ?

  • CHeden

    Yenlard, you beat me to it…was working on a post when yours showed up. Nice to see the GFS has reverted (at least momentarily) to it’s old thinking regarding the gradual emergence of a significantly more progressive pattern in Wk1-Apr. Will wait for the 12Z comes in to see if the 06Z was a flier. Here’s the 06Z run for 192 hrs out showing the bulk of the precip falling in SoCal towards the end of a 2-3 day spotty rainy period. After this event, two more storms (which look more like classic GoA lows/troughs) will take aim on Calif. More after the 12Z is in.

    • yenlard

      Wonder what the Euro shows. Oxnard seems pretty pessimistic about the pattern going forward. 12z might revert to dry. Let’s see.

    • inclinejj

      Awesome. Cheden, I was joking about Crystal Springs. My 4-40 speed has increased a bit!

    • matt (truckee)

      No! Got the bikes tuned up and the golf clubs ready. It is Spring. Enough with the rain, I want warm and sunny.

      • AlTahoe

        Well if mountain biking is not going to happen maybe my dream of renting a condo midweek in April at Mammoth during a cold storm cycle will come true. Me and 50 other people lapping chair 23 all day. 🙂

        • inclinejj

          We are planing to go down to Mammoth for a couple days. Can’t wait.

        • Crouching Dallas

          That’s the dream! Hoping to make it happen week after next.

      • DIAF! NVRSMR!

        • Crouching Dallas

          Do not go gently into that good sunlight!

  • yenlard
    • Bombillo1

      A redux of yesterday. Nice but not a cigar winner.

    • Bombillo1

      Kind of cornish, no?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    HRRR is showing another round of isolated thundershowers later today. Waiting on the 12z GFS currently.

  • honzik

    I’m looking at 6Z GFS (I know, I know) and it looks like wet weather around 4/5 continuing for a week. Am I being misled? What saith the ECMWF?

    • 00Z Euro has enough to tip the bucket.
      12Z GFS is a lot drier than 06Z GFS

      • Crouching Dallas

        Still better than yesterday’s runs, though. I’m just relieved that the EC appears to be letting up on ridge city next week. And for what it’s worth, GFS/CFS has been consistent in showing “something” for weeks now, whereas the Euro has been alllllll over the place.

        • Yesterday it all looked doomed. I really wouldn’t mind at all changing my avatar if I’m wrong.

          • Crouching Dallas

            Agreed – yesterday was deeply concerning. And not just because I’m booked for Mammoth Fri-Sun (though that maaaaaaybe has something to do with my model guidance neurosis)!

            12Z GFS isn’t great, but it’s active, as is the EC. I think that’s all we can hope for until we hit the 3-4 day window!

      • honzik

        You *know* that 18Z will mess with us by trending wetter, being such an incorrigible taunter.

  • Fairweathercactus

    Could be some thunderstorms for the foothills and IE today.

  • Arnold Weather Fanatic

    Weather has gone docile, and we have clear skies. Storm confined mainly to >5,000 feet, though we had brief snow flurry and .12 precip. Precip declining to 13 year average, and snowfall is way off after a good start.

  • jptimmons

    Yesterday was a interesting day in Burney. A few flakes made it down to my house in the afternoon while it was 49 degrees out. That’s the warmest I’ve ever seen snow fall…although when it was 47 and snowing about 10 years ago outside of Fiddletown the flakes were huge and it was dumping. Weather sure can be interesting. 🙂

  • Clint

    Looking back it is pretty clear that our disappointment largely stems from the overhyping of the El Niño event last summer and fall based on the mad ravings of one nasa ‘scientist’. I can’t find an article without a quote from this fellow about the pending winter devastation. It seems that San Diego county, relying mostly on this sage’s advice, declared an ‘el Nino emergency’ in October and spent roughly 30 million dollars on ‘preparation’. We’ve had five days of measurable rain since then. Many other forecasters were very ‘measured’ on the possible El Niño effects. Most of us believed what we wanted to believe based largely on one very loud voice. A lesson learned? For awhile perhaps, at least until the next Godzilla sighting gets our juices flowing and idles our brains again.

    • AlTahoe

      Umm no.
      The last two Mega El Nino’s did bring devastation, so preparing beforehand seems to make sense. Before the 1997 El Nino, Santa Clara County went around and spent millions cleaning up all of the river beds of debris, and it payed off by preventing widespread flooding. At the time they only had one other Super El Nino to go off of.

      • shampeon

        Do people really prefer their government unresponsive and reactive when it comes to natural disasters?

        • e e

          Even though a few of us did sense a general overhyping from the media before the holiday season, I’m still glad that the public did the necessary preparation beforehand.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Count me in as one of those who drank the El Nino “hype” kool-aid. But we can’t blame the experts from Scripts, NOAA, JPL, or any other climatological agency for predicting this El Nino as being “too big to miss”. They continued to compare this ENSO to the ’97/98 event when be received over 30″ of rain and had devastating effects here in SoCal. Unfortunately, not all El Nino’s are the same as noted by some astute WW bloggers on this post.

      It only cost me $1,800 in upgrades to weatherproof my home anticipating El Nino but it was still a good investment.

    • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

      So next El Niño no one should prepare at all? Try telling that to Peru where El Niño is causing floods or Ethiopia where there is a drought. Bill Patzert didn’t invent El Niño. Just because we didn’t get a soaker year doesn’t mean El Niño doesnt effect our rainfall.

      • Clint

        No he didn’t invent it but vastly overhyped it and the media played along. But other than that your point is well taken.

        • Mike Stephenson(Riverside)

          I do agree though that the media made it seem like a for sure thing, they fed into the story. I just hope they don’t turn into the media that cried wolf, and people still take warnings seriously.

      • Brian

        I’m so glad I remained skeptical all year long about this El Niño being a big soaker for Ca. Just goes to show it’s virtually impossible to predict the outcome of weather.

      • malnino

        No, he did not invent it, but if this winter had gone as he had predicted, BP certainly would’ve tried to take credit for it!

    • Bill

      Who are you referring to? I was under the impression predictions this year were based on this being one of the largest El Ninos ever, past results and impacts and the best model predictions available.

      • True, Yet the hype was all about how warm Nino 3.4 was compared to 97-98. Not many looked back over 125 years of data to see that not all very strong El Nino’s delivered. Heck every major world model was ++wet for all of west coast. Less for SoCal for these forecasts but not ‘dry’ as it has been.
        Patzert (Bill) is the guy

        • Dan the Weatherman

          Which strong El Ninos from the past didn’t deliver? I would like to know the years so I can check Socal records to see how wet or dry they were.

        • Bombillo1

          As I recollect, the real question regarding the ’15,’16 Nino event was whether N California would participate in the deluge at all. ENSOs have had a much higher verification for S.Cal being the bullseye for huge rain. The only reason there was hope for N.Cal was that both 82/83 and 97/98 Ninos delivered about 30% above average rain for N. Cal.

          • True for All +ENSO, yet the bigger ones have favored NorCal and this year was forecast to bullseye NorCal. Of note 1877-78 and 1888-89 were very strong El Nino’s both were ~20″ for LAX Also the following are all >1.5C Nino3.4

          • Sfedblog

            Yes, I recall most of the prognostications put SoCal in the bull’s eye and the big question was whether the party would extend to NorCal and fill the ever-important reservoirs . We all know how that turned out.

            What about the Colorado River which is a major source of SoCal water? What the status there? Lake Mead is still at a historical low last I heard. I thought the Rockies had done pretty well, not that I follow it much.

    • WanderingTattler

      If there had not been a high pressure ridge affecting SoCal, the preparations may very well have been needed.

      • DML

        That high pressure ridge now appears to be a semi permanent fixture now for SoCal unfortunately.

    • World models all forecast a wet winter for west coast.

    • MoonWatcher

      Rumor has it he may start up his own line of Hawaiian Aloha Shirts for retired Climatologists.

  • mattzweck

    Here in socal in high desert. Lancaster area cooler partly cloudy.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Looks like the atmosphere is having a much easier time destabilizing today compared to yesterday. Should be some surprises this afternoon across Central & Souther California.

  • WanderingTattler
  • Dan the Weatherman

    0.06″ fell here in Orange yesterday.

  • DML

    Temps mild today in the high desert, could do with a little less wind but still nice. At this point I’ll just be happy if we can keep the heat at bay for a little while.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Already have good visual of the vertical lift going on over the mountains of Ventura County.

  • Bombillo1

    Business insider, not a particularly erudite news site, featured an article this morning mirroring Daniel’s recent re-tweet regarding the alarmingly low Arctic ice readings coming out of this winter. The article goes on to speculate that with this situation as a back drop, we will not be going back to an 80’s, 90’s climate regime. Pretty much our nightmare scenario. An excerpt is below:

    A record expanse of Arctic sea never froze over this winter and remained
    open water as a season of freakishly high temperatures produced deep –
    and likely irreversible – changes on the far north.
    Scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center said on Monday
    that the sea ice cover attained an average maximum extent of 14.52m sq
    km (5.607m sq miles) on 24 March, the lowest winter maximum since
    records began in 1979.
    The low beats a record set only last year of 14.54m sq km (5.612m sq miles), reached on 25 February 2015.
    “I’ve never seen such a warm, crazy winter in the Arctic,” said NSIDC director Mark Serreze. “The heat was relentless.”
    It was the third straight month of record lows in the sea ice cover, after
    extreme temperatures in January and February stunned scientists.

    • Pfirman
      • click

        Here is a great tool for checking out sea ice extent, concentrations, etc. My take away from looking at that is that the ice at the north pole is pretty close to the area that has quite a bit of flux. ie its not in the “heart” of the ice cap, so its likely that ice conditions could vary quite a bit.

        https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/

        Also, (not accusing you of doing this, but its something that watts and his ilk do a lot) using a single point (i.e. north pole, central england, greenland, etc) is not representative of an area,(i.e. pole, hemisphere, or earth). Thats why so much work has gone into constructing broader data sets that are able to measure things like sea ice extent, rather than the sea ice at any particular point, or along shipping lanes only.

        Yes an interesting footnote indeed, but the source leaves something to be desired; the way its framed is unfortunate.

        • Pfirman

          Ah, thanks. I know nothing about the source, but was just trying to find something from when the nuke subs went under the ice in the fifties and were surprised to find it thinner than expected. I was trying to show the decline has been ongoing, not that the present findings, horrendous as they are, are suspect.
          I should have paid more attention to the source and looked a bit more.

          • Bombillo1

            Interesting thread, Click and Pfirman. Thanks.

          • Dan the Weatherman

            I have been wondering if there are other time periods in which Arctic sea ice extent has been lower than average. I know that today’s extent is at a record low since 1979, and likely lower than in the past, but am curious to know if there are other time periods such as the 1930’s and 1950’s for example, that had lower ice coverage that was less than 1979.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Cumulus clouds in Van Nuys is a sign of the instability in the atmosphere.. Too bad the moisture is so limited and most of thr clouds will be forming over the mountains.

    • SoCal Al (El Monte-SGV)

      Nice pics. Let’s hope the clouds/showers(?) move off the mountains with the N/NW flow and help us out in the valleys. Just looking for a little excitement.

  • mattzweck

    Here are somemore cloud pics. From Lancaster area it’s windy too.

  • mattzweck

    I have a new phone hard to take pics with but here are some pics.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Full blown monsoonal look now over the mountains, anvils are filling the skies to the north. Very dark.

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Radar is lighting up nicely!

    • Crouching Dallas

      Indeeeeeeeeeed! Interesting that the mountains might pull more snow from this slider (in late March, no less) than that mostly rain event in late January.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        These cells are forming right over the KVTX radar towers. Benefit of being on the southern edge of the Oxnard Plain is the view of the Transverse Range. We get to see the cells form on the west side and slide them east through the afternoon.

  • More strong winds again today. If wind was rain…

  • alanstorm

    OK. Some decent pop-up action over the Santa Cruz Mtns, as seen from Mt. View today

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Spring in Yosemite is wonderful, wish I could get some time to catch the dogwood bloom up there. Should be a spectacular wild flower season in the Sierras pretty soon.

    • Pfirman

      At Calavera Big Trees, they call it dogweed. It’s taking over.

      • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

        It’s one of the most photogenic blooms in the Sierra’s during the Spring! Yosemite will generally look it’s all time best within the coming month.

  • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

    Extremely dark thunderstorm clouds developing in Van Nuys!!! I have summoned the thunderstorms forth!!!

    • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

      They are forming in every direction I look and joining together over my head!!! I have summoned the thunderstorms to Van nuys!!

      • Bombillo1

        While you’re at it, summon a few toward Hermit Crab, otherwise these boards will uninhabitable this summer.

    • alanstorm

      Looking good!

      • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

        Thunderstorm
        Just missed me!! There are reports of thunder in Glendale!! Joey!! What’s ur report are ou in Glendale right now?! Looks like you are getting heavy rain

        • Crouching Dallas

          Shhhh, don’t doxx me!

          (haha I’m on the west side for class but wifey reports thunder and rain at the place!)

          • Tyler Price (Van Nuys)

            Dude I watched that thunderstorm form in Van nuys and drift southeast towards Glendale! I made it happen and summoned forth the thunderheads and sent them your way hahaha! Your welcome! 😉 bet your kinda bummed you missed the thunderstorm at ur house! There were reports of hail in Glendale aswell

  • mosedart (SF)

    Not sure what is going on in the 18z but holy crap wouldn’t that be nice!

  • William_LeGro

    Rain in Silver Lake! Wait. Rain in Silver Lake? There’s 1,2,3,4…whoa! I can’t keep up! Must be over 10 drops by now! Awesome! It’s so cold I’m surprised it isn’t hail. And distant thunder! What’s up wi’dat? I thought I was in SoCal. If this keeps up I’m moving to a drier place. Hmph!

    Actually, coming down nicely for the last couple of minutes. We might get .01″ by the time it’s done, the most since…well I don’t know when. Maybe even enough to clean the dust off the rain collector.

    • William_LeGro

      Done already. Ah! (lights a cigarette) Was it good for you too?

  • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

    Classic single cell thunderstorm to my northeast.

    • 805 Weather (Camarillo)

      The death.

      • Pfirman

        It’s the palm trees.

  • Purdy clouds

    • J Tang

      Beautiful day!

  • AlTahoe

    Lots of storms still showing up on the newest 18z run. They have been showing up for the same dates for quite a few runs now. The cut off low for Southern California next Wednesday has shown up for days, but it’s location has been all over the place. Cut Off lows are very difficult for the models to get a handle on, but maybe Southern California will luck out once this season and get a slow wanderer?

    • Dan the Weatherman

      By the way it feels tonight with this colder air mass, this doesn’t feel like the end of the rainy season for Socal. I am wondering if we will finish this season off on an active note.

  • Barney

    Felt like a January afternoon at Sugarbowl today. I was hoping Maddog had left some powder but he was pretty greedy.

  • Zephyr (Crestline)

    Snowing well the past 30 minutes here at 5000′ in Crestline, after partly cloudy blue skies all morning. Not really sticking yet, probably because it was upper 60s here last week and over the weekend. Trust me, I’ll take any wet stuff that comes down though!

    • Barney

      Radar looks pretty good over you guys with some dark blue, hopefully it keeps it up.